Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Who Provides the Bridge to Mariano?

As we get ready for the World Series to start, there are still a few questions that the Yankees still have to answer. One of the biggest is who will be Mariano Rivera's set-up man (or men) when Joe Girardi goes to the bullpen? Let's take a look at the candidates (from the bottom up):
6. Brian Bruney

I already said why Brian Bruney in the bullpen is a bad idea. I still think it is. Who do you take off for him? The Phillies have the lefties (Ibanez/Chase Utley/Ryan Howard) necessary to keep the LOOGYs. They're not going to get rid of Gaudin because of his ability to be the long man. The only possibility is if David Robertson is hurt. But while Brian Bruney used to be the most reliable man in Girardi's bullpen, he's far from that now. I think Bruney only makes the roster if there is an injury.

5. Chad Gaudin

By the time the World Series starts, Gaudin will have only thrown 2.1 innings in a month. Not exactly fresh and ready. But this team may need a fourth starter, especially if their is a rainout, and Gaudin could (potentially) start for the Yankees. His experience in the NL may prove valuable, though the only two Phillies he has any real experience against are Raul Ibanez (who's hit him) and Pedro Feliz (who has not). He could be a valuable righty reliever with his propensity to get righties out with guys like Feliz and Jayson Werth in the lineup.

4. Phil Coke
4a. Damaso Marte

Phil Coke (.584 LH OPS against) and Damaso Marte (.494 LH OPS against) both can get out lefties. The lefties have been good this postseason. Both Marte and Coke have gotten 1.1 IP and neither have given up a run. Marte was not good in the division series but Girardi showed faith in him against both righties and lefties. Coke has been the better pitched all season long but is a rookie and Marte has experience pitching in the World Series with the White Sox.

3. Alfredo Aceves

"Ace" had 10 wins out of the bullpen and was one of their most reliable relievers all season long. The problem with Ace, as we've discussed, is he's not the same pitcher since the Yankees gave him a spot start in July. He may be hurt, but he doesn't look like the same pitcher. Can Girardi rely on him in a big situation? He's been going to him quite a bit so far, but the Mexican League find may have lost favor with Girardi after struggles this postseason

2. David Robertson

He had the highest K/9 innings of any pitcher in the American League (min. 40 innings) and only Jonathan Broxton had more in the Major Leagues. He hasn't given up a run yet this playoffs and his pitched out of huge spots. The one question mark here: health. The Yankees shut him down for a while in September because of arm troubles and one of Girardi's reasons for taking him out against the Angels (the debacle where Aceves came in) was that he seemed to have decreased velocity. The fact that Girardi didn't even warm him up again may not be a good sign about his health. But if he's healthy, he's really good...as long as he's not walking people.

1. Phil Hughes
1a. Joba Chamberlain

Some people feel that the Yankees season turned around in 2007 when Joba entered the bullpen. Some people feel that the Yankees season turned around in 2009 when Hughes entered the bullpen. I took a look at a comparison of the two of them and in the small sample size, Hughes had succeeded slightly more than Joba in the bullpen. In the playoffs, Joe Girardi seemed to have confidence in both, but went to Joba earlier, relying more on Hughes to be the bridge to Mariano. Then, in the final game, the Yankees went to Joba in the 7th...and then Mo in the 8th. So who does Joe go to in the World Series in the 7th and who in the 8th? I think he still goes to Joba in the 7th and Hughes in the 8th. Neither have been great this postseason, but I think they go back with what worked so well in the regular season.

Girardi could of course mix-and-match with their bullpen options: bringing in Coke and Marte just for lefties, Aceves for righties who struggle against offspeed pitches and Robertson for those who struggle against the hard stuff. This, of course, is an open invitation for Joe Girardi to overmanage once again, but it could be the best way to get through a tough Phillies lineup rather than relying on the conventional "roles".

There is one more option: go with Mariano Rivera as his own set-up man. Like the Yankees did in Game 6 of the ALCS, Girardi can choose to go to Rivera for 6 outs. He's gone to him for 4 or 5 outs on many occasions this season so this is not out of the realm of possibilities. With all the off days, Rivera could possibly pitch a little more than usual. It'll be interesting to see who Girardi goes to in a big spot in the World Series.

Who do you think Joe should go to? The poll is already up so vote on the right!

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