Thursday, October 29, 2009

WoWo's Predictions

I didn't get a chance to post this earlier but here is my Series preview...

Both teams enter this series pretty evenly matched. The Phillies took care of both the Rockies and Dodgers pretty easily, relying on their big bats, the arm of Cliff Lee, and a somewhat rejuvenated Brad Lidge. They will continue to rely on these factors as they look to repeat as World Champs. The Yankees easily handled the Twins and finally conquered their longtime thorn-in-the-side, the Angels. With clutch hitting from Alex Rodriguez, dominant starting pitching from CC Sabathia, and the nearly perfect pitching from Mariano Rivera (plus a little help from the umpires), the Yankees also look like a team ready to reclaim the title for the City of New York. Before making my final prediction, here is breakdown of both teams in the major categories:

Starting Pitching:
Both teams flaunt dominant left-handed aces in Lee and Sabathia. Behind Lee will be Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels, and potentially both J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton. Hamels, last year's postseason star, has not come close to replicating his success this year while Martinez, once the greatest pitcher in the league, will try to prove that he's nobody's daddy. Happ was a surprise for the Phils this year and has pitched well both as a starter and out of the bullpen. For the Yanks, the enigmatic A.J. Burnett and gutsy postseason veteran Andy Pettitte will follow Sabathia. Journeyman Chad Gaudin may get the ball for a start depending on the status of the series.
Edge Goes To: Even. While the Phillies have more depth in their rotation, the Yankees feature better pitching ability (Burnett) and postseason experience (Pettitte). Each team's advantage in this category makes the matchup even. However, both teams must get ace-like performances from their aces for this match-up to remain even.

Bullpen:
The Phillies bullpen, one of their biggest strengths last year, took a big step backwards this year. For most of the year, Brad Lidge looked like a shell of the pitcher we saw last year (he blew a game to the Yankees in the Bronx earlier this year) and had a couple of stints on the DL. He has been solid closing games this postseason but if history tells us anything, Lidge can lose it very quickly and when he does, he doesn't usually get it back. Should J.A. Happ remain in the bullpen, he will be a big addition that Manager Charlie Manuel can call on. The Yankee bullpen, which turned around when Phil Hughes assumed the role of setup man, has been shaky at times this postseason. Hughes and Alfredo Aceves, two staples of the bullpen, have not performed up to their ability (although Hughes believes he has corrected a mechanical flaw that resulted in his poor performances). Joba Chamberlain's return to the bullpen has been met with mixed the results. The Yankee lefties have performed well, as has David Robertson. However, the Yankees still have the most important player in this entire series and that is Mariano Rivera. He has been dominant again this postseason (with exception of giving up his first postseason run at home since 2000) and his presence cannot be quantified.
Edge Goes To: Yankees. Rivera's mere presence pushes the Yankees ahead in this category.

Offense:
Both teams feature big time offenses, with the Yankees and Phillies ranking 1 and 2 in home runs, respectively. Right now, the Phillies offense is clicking on all cylinders and they are receiving contributions from every member of their offense. Anyone in that lineup is capable of getting a big hit for them which makes them incredibly dangerous. Raul Ibanez will most likely serve as the DH while in New York, giving way in LF to Ben Francisco, whose defense down the stretch proved to very valuable. The Phillies could also keep Ibanez in LF and let Matt Stairs take his hacks at the short porch in right. For the Yankees, their offense has been erratic, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter excluded. However, we have seen signs over the past few days which indicate that the offense may be starting to find its groove again. They put together a big rally against the Angels in game 5 of the ALCS and scrapped four runs off of the Angels in game 6. Two of the keys to the Yankees offensive success in this series will be Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira. Teixeira did not hit much in either of the first two series and the Yankees will need him to provide more for them at the plate if they wish to match the 3-4 punch of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Johnny Damon, who has been swinging the bat better as of late, will also need to keep hitting. Finally, the Yankees will also need someone at the bottom of the lineup, be it Cano, Swisher, or Cabrera to start contributing if they wish to match the Phillies.
Edge Goes To: Even. Both teams are capable of bludgeoning each other with their bats. They will need to use home field advantage to their favor, as both teams love hitting at home. Phillies' may have an edge with the addition of the DH in New York and the Yankees' loss of the DH in Philadelphia.

Defense:
The Phillies feature solid defense at multiple positions on the field. In the outfield, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth will cover a lot of ground. Ben Francisco will fill in as a late-inning defensive replacement for the average Raul Ibanez in LF and is also a very good outfielder. In the infield, Pedro Feliz, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley are some of the better infielders in the NL, with the improved Ryan Howard making contributions at 1B. Carlos Ruiz is a bull behind the plate and makes up for his lack of hitting with his tough demeanor and his defense. For the Yankees, their outfield cannot compare to that of the Phillies. Johnny Damon does not cover a lot of ground and has no arm. Nick Swisher is average at best in RF and Melky Cabrera, who has a strong arm, is still best suited for the corners. Brett Gardner will fill in for Damon or Swisher in late innings, taking over in CF with Cabrera moving to LF/RF. Gardner covers a lot of territory with his speed. In the infield, Cano and Teixeira could be considered the best defensive right-side of the infield in the league. Teixeira grabs anything hit in his direction. Cano, who turns a double-play as good as anyone, has improved his range over the past couple of years and with a strong arm to boot, he can practically field anything. Derek Jeter has improved his defense at the ripe age of 35, due to the assistance of first-year infield coach Mick Kelleher, who has done a better job of positioning Jeter before the ball is put in play. Alex Rodriguez may not have the range he used to have before his hip injury, but he still has a strong arm. Behind the plate, Jorge Posada cannot compare to Ruiz. His arm is not what it used to be and he still lets a decent number of balls get away from him. Backing up Posada is the much more solid Jose Molina, who will probably see much less time in this series due Francisco Cervelli being dropped from the roster.
Edge: Phillies. Philadelphia's outfield defense is far superior to the New York's, as is their all around defense.

Bench:
The Phillies feature much of the same bench as last year. Matt Stairs remains their big pinch-hit threat and although he had a down year, he did hit five pinch hit home runs. Greg Dobbs, Ben Francisco, Eric Bruntlett, Miguel Cairo, and Paul Bako round out a solid bench. For the Yankees, Eric Hinske was added back to the roster to provided left-handed power off the bench. Brett Gardner remains a speed threat, although he has not been as big a game changer as expected. Jerry Hairston Jr. and Jose Molina round out the bench. The Yankees have added an extra pitcher, which will give them only a four man bench at home. However, with Posada slated to catch AJ Burnett, this should be less of an issue.
Edge: Even.

Manager:
Charlie Manuel led his team to a World Series Championship last year and could be poised to do so again. He has his team on-board and knows his team very well. He has made good decisions so far this postseason (starting Pedro Martinez in game 2 of the NLCS, where he pitched brilliantly despite the loss) and I expect him to continue doing so. Joe Girardi has been criticized heavily for his perceived over managing of the Yankees so far this postseason. The addition of the games in Philadelphia may prompt Girardi to once again over manage his team, with the possibilities of pinch-hitting and double-switches increased. Girardi has won World Series as a player (including his big hit in the 1996 World Series). We have yet to see if Girardi can get the "big hit" as a manager, which at the right time may be making no move at all.
Edge: Phillies (Manuel). Experience and demeanor put Manuel over the top in this category.

Prediction:
Yankees in seven. The Yankees will need to use home field advantage to their benefit, as they have all of this postseason. Each team will each present each other's most difficult opponent yet and neither seem should be underestimated, as either team is capable of winning this series . However, I believe Rivera puts the Yankees over the top, especially if used for two inning saves in games being led by the Yankees after seven innings.

No comments:

Post a Comment