Hot Stove Coal: Let's Debate Joba Some More

Our own Jay Hyne became the second writer from NYaT to be featured in the LoHud Yankees Blog Pitch Hitter series when he wrote his blog post this morning. He wrote about Joba Chamberlain and Jay believes he should stay in the bullpen. It may all be a moot point at this juncture since Brian Cashman agrees with Jay, but I've stated more than once on this blog I think the Yankees have been making a huge mistake by pigeon-holing Joba into the 'pen. And since Jay did reference our WBRS arguments in his bio, I figured that it was more than appropriate to give some contradiction to his post.

Joba's role has been a debate on NYaT from the beginning (Star-Ledger)

The issue is that while the Yankees seemed to have handled Phil Hughes' transisition to the Majors well (though the jury is still out on that--we'll see after an increased workload this year), they totally bungled Joba. I don't think Jay or anyone would disagree with me on that. He was a reliever, then a starter, then they had him start the first 3 innings of a game, then the shut him down, then he was a reliever, and now he's sort of in limbo. It's tough to be that age and be jerked around like that. I also think that people look poorly upon the season Joba was truly given a chance to start because of how the season ended. Look at his starts before they started skipping him and he was a different pitcher.

Unfortunately, it looks like we'll never know if Joba could have been another Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke or Johan Santana--three pitchers who started as relievers and after a rough start in the rotation, made the transition work. I don't know if it's truly that arm injury or just an organizational-wide mental block against Joba after he burst onto the scene as a dominant bullpen arm. Maybe he'll have to be traded to realize that potential or maybe he's just another Aaron Heilman.

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Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010 Pt 2

Back in December we took a trip in the time machine back to last off-season and looked at how close the Yankees came to the "Worst Case Scenario" series we did last year. We started with Part 1 and the starting lineup. Well let's continue that with theme today with Part 2, which was the starting pitching staff. By then I realized that non-Yankee fans were taking a lot of joy in my scenarios but it didn't stop me from looking at what would go horribly wrong if the pitching staff fell apart. Let's see how close we got to that scenario:

AJ Burnett was a "black eye" for the Yankees (FanHouse)

CC Sabathia
What I said worst-case would look like: "Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series...According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys."

What actually happened: Sabathia's arm and body held up another year's grind, starting an AL-leading 34 games, pitching 237.2 innings, and winning a Major League-leading 21 games. Sabathia was an All-Star, came in third in the Cy Young voting, and 13th in the MVP voting. He pitched about as well during the regular season as he did in his first year in Pinstripes (with less strikeouts but more groundballs). The issue for CC was when he hit the playoffs. After being stellar in 2009, he was so-so to bad in 2010. He started three times but only pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up a whopping 22 hits and 10 earned runs, striking out 15 but walking 7, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch, and being charged with a balk. Sabathia was a huge reason the Yankees made the playoffs (from August 7th-September 2nd he won every time he started), but for them to win the World Series in 2011, they need him to carry it through to the playoffs.

A.J. Burnett

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Hot Stove Coal: With Money to Burn Yankees Reportedly Sign Rafael Soriano

Sometimes the New York Yankees are reported to make moves that make you hope that it's a mistake and it's not real. That was certainly the case when I heard they had signed Jaret Wright and again was the case when the Yankees re-signed Damaso Marte. The latest report that the Yankees have signed Rafael Soriano to a three-year, $35 million deal leaves me feeling the same way.

Rafael Soriano is thanking the heavens for the Yankees' deal (Newsday)

And judging by the reaction of the rest of the blogosphere, I ain't the only one. According to the New York Times' Tyler Kepner if Soriano opts out after 1 year, he gets $11.5M. If he opts out after year 2, he gets $21.5M total. If he stays all 3 years, he gets $35M. To make this contract worse, after Brian Cashman says that he won't give up his first-round pick for any pitcher on the market, well, he does just that for Type A free agent Soriano. Maybe the money that Cashman didn't give to Cliff Lee was burning a hole in his pocket? Maybe he was getting bored? Maybe Scott Boras and Cash hadn't done much business lately?

Is it the draft pick, the years, the money or Soriano a friend asked? How about all four of those. I don't particularly love Soriano, the draft pick is an extremely high cost for a middle reliever, the years (and opt-out clause) are not friendly to the team, and the money is ridiculous for a non-starter not named Mariano Rivera.

Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave Blues put it best: "The draft pick doesn’t bother me as much as the contract. The Yanks get an expensive setup man for two years before he possibly slides into the closer role after Mariano Rivera‘s contract expires. Though, as we know, you can never count on Mo to call it quits."

The last thing Joe adds is the most intriguing of this all: "The one thing I will add right now: I dislike this move less if it moves Joba back to the rotation."

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The Yankees Bullpen Since the All-Star Break

The Yankees bullpen--beset by bad luck, injuries and just inconsistent pitching--looked awful at the All-Star break. Sure Mariano Rivera was still "The Great Mariano", but the mythological "Bridge to Mariano" looked like it could collapse at any second. But when the All-Star break ended something clicked with the relievers and with the acquisition of Kerry Wood, the Yankees bullpen has looked great since then. Let's take a look at the relievers (and their workload since the Texas series started):

The Yankees "Bridge to Mariano" has gotten stronger since Break (NYDN)

Kerry Wood As a Yankee: 2-0, 6 holds, 0.44 ERA in 20.2 innings with 24 K (to 11 BB), .480 OPS against, 1.190 WPA (Win Probability Added according to Baseball-Reference).

Wood gave up a home run to Toronto's Aaron Hill in his second outing in Pinstripes and has not been scored on since. In fact, that's the only time a run has crossed the plate while Wood as he has inherited 8 runners and none of those have scored either. In September he's allowed 4 baserunners out of the 28 batters he's faced. Oh, and that home run he gave up to Hill was the only extra base hit he's given up in to the 83 batters he's faced as a Yankee. Recent workload (calculated since September 10th): 4 games, 14 batters faced, 50 pitches.

Boone Logan Since A-S Break: 1-0, 7 holds, 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings with 23 K (to 6 BB), .519 OPS against, 0.397 WPA.

The amazing part is that Logan gave up a run right after the All-Star break on a home-run and a run last night--but none in between, a streak that spanned 25 outings. If you take away those two outings as well, he's been good at not allowing inherited runners to score, only allowed 13% of his 15 to cross home. Logan's biggest problem has been when he hasn't been used against lefties (as shown last night) but as a lefty specialist, he's been deadly holding lefties to a .174/.269/.203 line with one extra base hit in 78 PAs. Recent workload: 4 games, 9 batters faced, 36 pitches.

David RobertsonSince A-S Break: 2-1, 8 holds, 1 save, 1.50 ERA in 24 innings with 31 K (to 12 BB), .575 OPS against, 1.253 WPA.

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The Yankees Will Have to Go Without Marte and Aceves in 2010

Two important members of the 2009 World Series Championship team will not be back for the 2010 team. From the New York Daily News' Peter Botte:

Hughes will have his next start skipped due to innings limits (LoHud)

Phil Hughes will be skipped one start in the Yankees rotation to limit his innings, Joe Girardi said before Wednesday's series finale against Baltimore. Dustin Moseley will start Sunday in Texas, and Hughes will return to the rotation next Wednesday in Tampa.

Also, Girardi said Alfredo Aceves (back) will not return this season, and Damaso Marte (shoulder) will "probably not" be back in 2010.

The first bit of news is not surprising. Hughes is currently on pace for about 181 regular season innings which would probably be too many for him if he was also asked to start in the playoffs. Although Hughes almost certainly slots in as a start in the playoffs, it probably wouldn't hurt to give his arm some rest. Since they first skipped a start for Hughes in late June after Hughes was 10-1, Hughes is 6-6 in 13 starts (73 innings) since with a 5.55 ERA, 15 HR allowed and an .833 OPS against. Although the track record for skipping Hughes' starts hasn't been great, the results he's put up since June haven't been consistently stellar either so this makes a ton of sense.

The Aceves and Marte news is not great for the Yankees, though they seemed to be resigned to move on without them before this news came down today. Marte has not been a great regular season pitcher for the Yankees but his pitching in the playoffs last year was a big reason they won the World Series (5.2 innings of no-hit ball in the ALCS and World Series). Amazingly, Marte pitched in 30 games for the Yankees in 2010 (the last being on July 7th) which is tied with CC Sabathia for the 4th most on the team behind Joba Chamberlain (60 games), Mariano Rivera (52), David Robertson (52), and Boone Logan (39). The last guy on that list, Logan, is the reason the Yankees can probably be OK with Marte being out. Logan has stepped up in a big way to solidify the lefty specialist role in the bullpen (lefties hitting .194 vs. Logan with one XBH in 70 PAs).

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The Yankee Clipper: Gardner, Montero, Rivera, Cliff Lee and the Bullpen

Let's take a break from debating about what is a sport (or not, the dialog has been quite fascinating) to talk about the Yankees for a while, shall we? Let's head into our Yankee Clipper on this "Dog Day of August" Wednesday in New York (and, by the way, not much is actually wrong with the Yankees; they're still the best team in baseball. Deep breath and move on):

The Yanks need to find Jesus...and bring him up (Times-Union)

1. Brett the Jet has been grounded. Brett Gardner on July 4th: .319/.401/.434. Brett Gardner since July 4th: .169/.302/.213. I know I sometimes am not so objective on Brett Gardner--man crushes can do that for you (if I could clone Brett Gardner and have the second one run errands for me, I would...and the errands would get done really quickly). But he's lost his way. You can't steal bases if you can't get on base. The team has gone 19-11 in those 30 games, but Gardner hasn't been a main part of the cause with only 4 XBH in 89 ABs. He's still playing great defense and has an excellent WAR of 2.8 for the season, but you need to worry if he's hit a wall or teams are now adjusting to him better. Gardner is a slap hitter who can ill afford a large amount of Ks yet he's struck out over 30% of his official ABs since July 4th. His weighted on base average (wOBA) for August is .093 and he still hasn't walked in the month. Gardner needs to get himself straightened out--and fast (though the latter part of the wish is not a hard thing for the Speediest White Man).
2. Jesus rising? Matt at TYU says that we're stuck with Francisco Cervelli but down on the farm the Yankees are seeing their top prospect, Jesus Montero CRUSH the ball at Triple-A. Hopefully in 6 years the Wall Street Journal will be writing about how the Mariners passed on Montero like Brian Costa of WSJ wrote today about how the Texas Rangers passed on Robinson Cano. Sean at Pending Pinstripes says it's still too soon. Brien @ IIATMS defers to the Yankees management. Rebecca at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes says it's time. Here is video proof (H/T River Ave Blues) of Montero crushing a game-winning home run two nights ago. I can agree right now not to call him up (there's no spot for him), but if Jorge Posada lands on the disabled list with his cranky shoulder (or really anyone goes on the DL), I think Montero should be in the Bronx. At the very least, he should be up in about 2 weeks when rosters expand. This is a team that has a .297 wOBA in August as Larry from Yankeeist points out (though, to be fair, he also points out how good the pitching they've faced has been). No excuse for Montero not to be a September call-up.  For now, we need to just pray for Francisco like many pray for Jesus--Montero, that is.

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NYaT's Yankee Wishlist for the Trade Deadline

It's hard to "fix" a team that's on pace to win 104 regular season games, has the best record and run differential in baseball, and has won more games at home than Baltimore has in their entire season--but we're going to try. With the trade deadline fast approaching and Tampa Bay right on the Yankees' heels, I asked my fellow NYaT'ers what they think the Yankees need to do to put this group over the top. A compiled list of results below: 

Brett the Jet hitting #1 could help Yanks (Star-Ledger)

1. Move Brett Gardner to the leadoff spot. I'm not sure why this hasn't been done already, but I'm going to throw this out there as my personal "big fix" for the Yankees. The Yankees have argued that hitting him 9th gives them a "second leadoff hitter". Explain to me that logic? Why not just have him as your first leadoff hitter? Gardner is hitting .300/.397/.403 with a .372 wOBA and is on pace for almost 50 steals. Derek Jeter is having a down year, hitting .274/.338/.388 with a .324 wOBA which is just a tick under Juan Miranda's. And yet Jeter is unmovable from the leadoff spot while Gardner is left for the bottom 3rd of the lineup? The Yankees have been at a loss to find their #2 hitter since Nick Johnson went down with an injury early in the season, but I'm pretty sure their solution has just been hitting first. Imagine how much better the Yankees lineup would be with Gardner-Jeter-Tex-ARod-Cano-Posada-Swisher. Moving Swisher down creates more of a fluid lineup and will stretch their lineup even deeper. Gardner also gets on base vs. lefties (remember when the Yankees were worried about his right-handed caddy for Gardner instead of for Granderson) with a .391 OBP.

And here's another factor: Gardner leads the Major Leagues in pitchers per plate appearance at 4.61 (and by a lot). The last guy to even approach that number was Rickey Henderson's 4.55 in 1997. That many pitches makes the starter work harder and helps to tire him out faster. And, by the way, the last Yankee to have an OBP of at least .397 and steal 45 bases? Rickey Henderson in 1985. I'm not saying that Gardner is Rickey--but wouldn't you want to give him more plate appearances to find out?

Joba hasn't stepped up as the "Bridge to Mariano" (NYDN)

2. An upgrade in the bullpen. This is where my compadres and I differ in our opinions. I've seen the Yankees waste decent prospects on mediocre relievers just to theoretically get a small advantage before the trade deadline. I saw the Red Sox go out and get Eric Gagne in 2007. I'm just not a fan of the big fix reliever. I don't think they exist. You need a closer, and some solid guys in front and that's it, in my opinion. The Yankees could tweak that bullpen by calling back up Jonathan Albaladejo and Ivan Nova (and getting rid of dead weight guys like CHoP and Chad Gaudin). But others differed.

Paul said: "They don’t need to do much but the one issue is the bullpen. They need help, I just don’t know who. I would love Scott Downs but the Jays are asking too much. I don’t want them to trade any good prospects for middle relief so they should be careful. I also hope they don’t trade Joba."

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The Yankee Clipper: Relief Pitching

I feel like "relief" should be in quotes to emphasize the fact that the Yankees bullpen crew hasn't exactly been "lights out". So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the starters, but the relievers--oh boy. It's praying for 6-7 innings from the starters, hold your breath for an inning or two and then TGFMR (which of course stands for Thank God For Mariano Rivera). The trade deadline is fast approaching but the the relievers available look ugly at best. Let's take a look at the guys the Yankees currently have:

1. Mariano Rivera. Where would the Yankees be without The Great Mariano? Worse, where will they be eventually without Rivera? Since Mo became the Yankees full-time closer in 1997, the Yankees have had 30 different relievers save games--Mo has 541 and there are only three guys who have more than 7 (Ramiro Mendoza at 16, Mike Stanton at 15, and Steve Karsay at 12). But while he's still here, let's appreciate the man. So far into 2010, Rivera is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA, and 20 saves (in 22 chances). Since May 24th when Rivera gave up a run against the Mets, Mo has pitched in 21 games, gone 3-0 with 12 saves, has an ERA of 0.40 and the line against him is .122/.167/.135. Oh, and he's supposedly doing this all with multiple injuries and at age 40. His WHIP is 0.645, his H/9 is 4.3 and his ERA + is 405 which are all career bests. Alas, some correction is probably in order. He's held opposing batters to a .194 BABIP which is pretty hard to keep up even for Mariano (his career mark is .274). He's allowed 3.1% of his flyballs to leave the park which is well-below his mark of 6.4% since 2002 or his 15.2% of 2009. And so while his ERA is sitting at 1.01 , his FIP is 2.25 and his xFIP is 3.11. The correction may  not be that large, however; Rivera has outperformed his FIP every season since he's been closer except 2001 and 2007. Rivera's strikeouts are a tick down (first time he hasn't struck out a batter per inning since 2006), but everything else is right on par. One interesting development for Rivera: while everyone thinks that sending a righty up is better than a lefty, lefties are actually hitting Rivera slightly better in 2010 (it's all relative) with a .471 OPS compared to a .336 OPS vs righties. And get this: Rivera's SO:BB ratio vs. righties is 23 to 1 and he's allowed zero runs vs. righties in 2010. Let's hope Rivera--the 1999 World Series MVP and 2003 ALCS MVP--continues to play at this level for a very long time. Best Month: June 2-0, 7 saves, zero runs allowed in 11 games, 4 hits, 11.1 K/9, 0.462 WHIP, 8.00 SO/BB.
2. Joba Chamberlain. My "Joba Rules" t-shirt is slowly becoming obsolete. ESPN's Rob Neyer wrote today about Chamberlain's luck and you hope that those numbers turn around. I agree with Neyer that we won't ever see the Joba we saw in 2007. But I'll take (and most Yankees fans would agree) the Joba who pitched in 2008. The Yankees jerked around Joba for so long and wonder now why he's struggling--is it really any surprise to anyone. Some have suggested trading him (horrible idea considering his low trade value), moving him to the rotation (fine idea but he's not stretched out right now), or sending him down to the minors (a kick in the ass, sure, but what else would this accomplish except put another hole the Yankees bullpen?). This bit from Bloomberg Sports is why Yankees fans are frustrated with Joba: " The big right-hander's ERA stands at 5.77, his WHIP's at 1.51, with opponents now hitting a robust .290 against him. He has not had more than three consecutive scoreless appearances since the middle of May. Of the 11 appearances in which he has allowed a run this year, he has allowed either 3 or 4 runs in five of them, a trend that makes it all but impossible for him to consistently lower his ERA." Despite all that the article (and Neyer's as well) suggests what I suggest with the Yankees and Yankee fans when it comes to Joba: patience. He's struck out almost 10 batters per 9 and walked less than the previous two years. He's not been victim to the longball, but he's just gotten hit all around the park. Eventually, some of those balls are going to get caught. And when it does, I really think that Joba's numbers will fit perfectly in line with 2008 where all his peripherals looked exactly the same but instead of a 5.77 ERA, he had a 2.60 ERA. The road right now has been quite bumpy, but hopefully the Yankees don't panic and acquire an 8th inning guy (or trade Joba), when he may possess exactly what they need to bridge to Mo. The big thing for Joba (in my opinion): stop making the first pitch so hittable. It's important to get first pitch strikes (and hitters hit only .170 against Joba when he gets ahead of them) but batters are hitting .611 against Joba on the first pitch, a sure sign that they're just waiting on fastballs to drive. It's tough right now (as as the New York Daily News wrote, Girardi has put Joba on notice) but I have some faith Joba (2nd in the league in holds) will yet turn it around. Best Month: April 3.48 ERA in 11 games, 1.258 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.33 SO/BB.

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The Yankee Clipper: A Series Win Before Heading Back to the Bronx

The Yankees lost for the first time in Minnesota since August of 2008 last night but they still leave Minnesota with a series win and head home to face what should be the easy part of their schedule (here's a look at their pitching probables from Zell's Pinstripe Blog). Since it's been a while since we've done a Yankee Clipper, let's look at how we got here, shall we?

1. A split with Boston, a 2-game loss to Tampa, and then a series loss to the Mets. Yeah, it's been a while since we've done one of these. Tampa seems to be on another level than the rest of the majors, this past week's series against Boston notwithstanding. The split with Boston was disappointing since they had every chance to win that second game including a 5-1 lead and a rally towards the end. The Mets series was even more disappointing as the bats went dead (a theme that has carried through since). Jason Bay continues to be a Yankee killer. Jason @ IIATMS looks into whether the Yankees are waiting for the big hit and while many Yankee fans were busy panicking, Steve at River Ave Blues put everything into perspective. Also to be put in perspective, the Yankees have been playing without Curtis Granderson who returns tonight and Matt from TYU looks at what Granderson's return means to the Yankees. I think it means more protection in a lineup that has recently been pretty bad throughout, especially the middle of the line-up. Getting Granderson back could allow the Yankees to move Swisher into the #2 hole, Granderson into the #6 hole and Gardner further back in the lineup where he thrived earlier in the season.
2. The Yankees still have Minnesota's number. Two one-run games (one suspended) went to the Yankees in the first two. Home runs by Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher in a park that has shown to be very hard to homer in were the difference. Jeter's bad and glove had been questioned recently so it was good for him to show up. So calls about his defense and moving him out of the lead-off spot will have to wait for now.
3. But other teams still have Javier Vazquez's number. Despite looking really good in his last two starts, Vazquez didn't look quite as good last night going for the sweep. Maybe it was that bunt attempt that he took off of his finger...or maybe he really hasn't turned a corner just yet (or maybe he's historically struggled against some of the Twins). Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily writes that just when Javy looked like he had turned the corner, last night happened, and Joe from River Ave Blues writes that there was some good, but mostly bad last night.

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The Yankee Clipper: Game 2

I have to admit, most of my time was spent last night watching LOST and some of my sports watching was split between the Yankees/Red Sox and the Rangers. But that doesn't mean I can't give you a Yankee Clipper for Game 2:

1. I'm sure you've heard by now of Big Papi's big, expletive-laced tirade. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston has some more information. Matt at Fack Youk thinks he may have justifiably been upset since we are two games into the season and he's already getting questions about his production. Craig Calcaterra at HardballTalk agrees with Matt. I'm OK with Papi being upset about being questioned this early in the season, but the dude is playing in one of the biggest baseball media markets and reaped a lot of good will form the writers when his career was going well. He can't now turn to the same people and mouth off just because they have to fill a newspaper column. That's unfair.
2. Also unfair is claiming that Joba Chamberlain has been magically healed by the bullpen gods because he pitched well last night and pumped his fist (*cough* Wallace Matthews). We'll never know now if he could have done this as a starter in the rotation, but those same people weren't texting me on Sunday night and saying that Joba's "bullpen mentality" wasn't working that night. I'm rooting for him to do well in this role--I really am--but I'm not going to engage in selective celebrations of success. We can collectively fist pump if Phil Hughes pitches well in the 5th role and the Yankees get to the playoffs at the end of the year. I can't say I didn't love the fist pump (I did one at home), but let's all settle down a bit (picture to the right from the ESPN New York article)
3. Nick Johnson's walk. Sometimes the biggest hit of the game is not a hit at all. If you want to see a reason we got Nick Johnson, that was it. Like Giambi, because of his eye Johnson is one of those guys who is sometimes does more damage with a walk than with a hit. It's not the most fun baseball, but it's what puts runs on the board and marks in the win column. As Mike from River Ave Blues wrote, Nick Johnson's biggest swing came with the bat on his shoulder.
4. Nick Swisher's patience. Pitchers will hate both of the "Nicks" in the Yankees lineup of 2010. Swishalicous saw 30 pitches last night. The best AB was 8 pitches against Manny Delcarmen. He doubled at the end of the at-bat and even though he didn't score, the amount of pitches he saw effects the game and the rest of the series. Maybe Delcarmen is unavailable tonight because of the toll he took last night. That's a victory in and of itself.
5. Robinson Cano's power. When Cano is on with the bat, he has such a sweet swing. This is a guy who could win a batting title and maybe vie for an MVP award if he kept focused all season. His blast to rightfield last night continued to show that. Focus, Robby, focus.

Final Thoughts: Other aspects I didn't talk about? Jorge and AJ doing fine as battery mates (we can stop that chatter for now), Alfredo Aceves doing really well out of the bullpen (I think that will be a big factor), and Marco Scutaro's error (is their a Red Sox curse for not resigning Orlando Cabrera?). 1-1 record and going for the series win tonight. Good start to the season. I just love having baseball back as the weather continues to get nicer.

NYaT Roundtable: Joba, Hughes and the 5th Starter Debate

You know that your team is going into a season with few question marks when you get into a heated debate about who the 5th starter is going to be. But that's where we are in Yankee-land. It's not a small issue either--with Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez reaching free agency after the season ends, the Yankees may need to fill quite a few slots behind CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. And with the workload that Sabathia has undergone the past few seasons and the health question marks surround Burnett, this is not a small issue. But I wanted to throw it out there to my friends and blog contributors and see what they think. So we started a roundtable debate on Joba and the 5th starter role. I thought it was a wonderful idea by Pinstriped Bible and I thought we could continue the debate

The Yankees 5th starter debate is not just Joba Chamberlain vs. Phil Hughes but where the rest of the group fits in. Here's what resulted (started on Friday night):

--Andrew: Everyone knows where I stand on this issue because I've written about it before: let’s let Joba, rule-less, go through an entire regular season and see if he can duplicate the success he showed last year before they jerked him around with Joba Rules III. Before they willy-nilly instituted those rules, Joba showed flashes of brilliance, going 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA and dominating in three starts right after the All Star Break. The Yankees then pulled the rug out from under him and he struggled mightily in his mishmosh of a role. I rather give it to Joba and see what he can do over an entire season than give it to Phil Hughes who may be able to throw a max of about 125 innings.

I'll open the floor, though: what do you guys think?

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Yankees Over/Under: Bullpen, Bench and Coaching Staff

This week we looked at the New York Yankees Starting 9 and their Starting Rotation but now it's time to do the over/unders for their bullpen, coaches, and bench. I'm going to put out the list but I want you to chime in within the comments about where you would bet these will fall in 2010 (again, with details about those numbers in parentheses):

1. Mariano Rivera - 73 regular season innings pitched (his innings have dropped every year since 2004 but 73 was the average amount over the past 6 years)
2. Phil Hughes relief appearances - Joba Chamberlain relief appearances - 0 (so if you subtract one form the other, what will you get? For their careers, this number would be -6)
3. David Robertson - 10 K/9 (he led the league with 13 K/9 last season and has 12 K/9 over his young career)
4. Alfredo Aceves - 80.2 innings of relief (his relief total from 2009)
5. Chan Ho Park - 4.35 ERA (his career ERA)
6. Mark Melancon - 22 games (he had 13 last season)
7. Damaso Marte PA vs. LHB - Damaso Marte PA vs. RHB - 0 (will he be truly used as a lefty specialist in 2010?)
8. Randy Winn - 10 stolen bases (he's averaged 17 a season over his career)
9. Marcus Thames - 7 HR (his low for a season while in Detroit)
10. Francisco Cervelli - 101 PA (his total from last season)

And now a few non-stat related ones:

11. Nick Swisher - 0.5 appearances on the mound (he had a memorable inning in April last season)
12. Francisco Cervelli - 0.5 concussions (let's hope for under here)
13. Joe Girardi - 50 TV shots of him during 2010 looking into his infamous binder
14. Brian Cashman - 3 trades during the season
15. Rob Thomson - 7 runners thrown out at home

Put your thoughts in the comments below. I'll tally up the results and we'll see how we did in October. Thanks for playing!

Picture from the New York Times

Yankees Over/Under: Starting Rotation

Yesterday we looked at the Starting 9 with a fun Over/Under game and today we'll check out the starting pitchers. Basically you just put in the comments the numbers and whether you think the player will be under or over in 2010. Tomorrow we'll finish with the bullpen, the coaches and the bench but let's get going with the pitchers (with details about the numbers in parentheses):

1. CC Sabathia - 19 wins (his win total from last year)
2. A.J. Burnett - 29 starts (his average amount of starts the past 5 seasons)
3. Andy Pettitte - 1/2 a run difference between his home and road ERA (his home ERA was 0.88 runs worse last season)
4. Javier Vazquez - 16 wins (his career-high mark set in 2001)
5. Javier Vazquez - 198 IP (his decade-low mark set in 2004 with Yankees)
6. Joba Chamberlain - 22 starts (his average the past two seasons)
7. Phil Hughes - 4.50 ERA as a starter (his career mark as a starter is 5.22)
8. Alfredo Aceves - 5 starts (his career total)
9. Sergio Mitre + Chad Gaudin - 9 starts combined (9 was Mitre's total alone last season)

And now a few non-stat related ones:

10. CC Sabathia - 4th in the Cy Young voting (his finish last season and "over would be mean better and "under" would mean worse)
11. Javier Vazquez - 1.5 times per game 2004 ALCS Game 7 shot of Vazquez shown
12. A.J. Burnett - 10 pies in the face after game-winning hits (the Yankees had 15 game-winning hits last season)
13. CC Sabathia- 290 pounds (his "official" weight)
14. Other starters - 3 starts by other pitchers than the 9 listed above
15. Andy Pettitte - 10 starts until a New York newspaper suggests he's "done"

Put your thoughts in the comments below. I'll tally up the results and we'll see how we did in October.

Picture from the New York Times

3 Reasons The Yankees Need To Make Joba the 5th Starter

Has any pitcher who was so young created so much controversy, debate and intrigue? Joba Chamberlain went through the hyped up prospect stage, the dominant reliever stage, the midge incident, an injury, the starter/reliever debate, many iterations of the "Joba Rules", back-and-forth between the bullpen and rotation, and the guy is only 24 and just won his first World Series ring. I figured that after all the crap that the Yankees have put Joba through, that 2010 would be the year they let go of the Joba Rules, let him air it out, and see what happens. So I was very disappointed to see John Harper's New York Daily News article today which basically makes it seem that the Yankees feel Joba should be a reliever. Ugh. So let's go one more time through why Joba needs to be a starter with 3 easy-to-follow reasonings:

1.  When he was really a starter in 2009, he was very good. Joba was rolling along through the end of July when the Yankees decided it would be a good idea to screw with his schedule and change the amount of innings he threw. I understand the thought behind it--keep him under a certain amount of innings--but the execution made no sense. Joba is a pitcher who is all about rhythm with his pitching. When he's in a groove, he rears back, throws, gets the ball back and repeats. When he's off, he's walking around the mound, shaking off the catcher, laboring, and nibbling at the corners. The Yankees basically found the best way to screw up that rhythmic success he had developed. Joba's last three starts before the end of July were 6.2, 7.0 and then 8.0 innings long, he pitched 100 pitches in each and gave up a total of 2 earned runs (0.83 ERA). He held opponents to a dominant.114/.222/.200 line and looked very much like the pitcher we all wanted him to be. And then the Yankees pulled out the rug from under him. Let's look at his stats before and after July from Baseball-Reference:

• Before: 20 starts, 7-2, 3.58 ERA, 110.2 IP, 105 H, 44 ER, 50 BB, 97 K, 13 HR, .254/.347/.403 vs
• After: 11 starts, 2-4, 7.52 ERA, 46.2 IP, 62 H, 39 ER, 26 BB, 36 K, .316/.397/.515 vs

And here's how that looked month-by-month:

Read more>>

Who Provides the Bridge to Mariano?

As we get ready for the World Series to start, there are still a few questions that the Yankees still have to answer. One of the biggest is who will be Mariano Rivera's set-up man (or men) when Joe Girardi goes to the bullpen? Let's take a look at the candidates (from the bottom up):

6. Brian Bruney

I already said why Brian Bruney in the bullpen is a bad idea. I still think it is. Who do you take off for him? The Phillies have the lefties (Ibanez/Chase Utley/Ryan Howard) necessary to keep the LOOGYs. They're not going to get rid of Gaudin because of his ability to be the long man. The only possibility is if David Robertson is hurt. But while Brian Bruney used to be the most reliable man in Girardi's bullpen, he's far from that now. I think Bruney only makes the roster if there is an injury.

5. Chad Gaudin

By the time the World Series starts, Gaudin will have only thrown 2.1 innings in a month. Not exactly fresh and ready. But this team may need a fourth starter, especially if their is a rainout, and Gaudin could (potentially) start for the Yankees. His experience in the NL may prove valuable, though the only two Phillies he has any real experience against are Raul Ibanez (who's hit him) and Pedro Feliz (who has not). He could be a valuable righty reliever with his propensity to get righties out with guys like Feliz and Jayson Werth in the lineup.

4. Phil Coke
4a. Damaso Marte

Phil Coke (.584 LH OPS against) and Damaso Marte (.494 LH OPS against) both can get out lefties. The lefties have been good this postseason. Both Marte and Coke have gotten 1.1 IP and neither have given up a run. Marte was not good in the division series but Girardi showed faith in him against both righties and lefties. Coke has been the better pitched all season long but is a rookie and Marte has experience pitching in the World Series with the White Sox.

3. Alfredo Aceves

"Ace" had 10 wins out of the bullpen and was one of their most reliable relievers all season long. The problem with Ace, as we've discussed, is he's not the same pitcher since the Yankees gave him a spot start in July. He may be hurt, but he doesn't look like the same pitcher. Can Girardi rely on him in a big situation? He's been going to him quite a bit so far, but the Mexican League find may have lost favor with Girardi after struggles this postseason

2. David Robertson

He had the highest K/9 innings of any pitcher in the American League (min. 40 innings) and only Jonathan Broxton had more in the Major Leagues. He hasn't given up a run yet this playoffs and his pitched out of huge spots. The one question mark here: health. The Yankees shut him down for a while in September because of arm troubles and one of Girardi's reasons for taking him out against the Angels (the debacle where Aceves came in) was that he seemed to have decreased velocity. The fact that Girardi didn't even warm him up again may not be a good sign about his health. But if he's healthy, he's really good...as long as he's not walking people.

1. Phil Hughes
1a. Joba Chamberlain

Some people feel that the Yankees season turned around in 2007 when Joba entered the bullpen. Some people feel that the Yankees season turned around in 2009 when Hughes entered the bullpen. I took a look at a comparison of the two of them and in the small sample size, Hughes had succeeded slightly more than Joba in the bullpen. In the playoffs, Joe Girardi seemed to have confidence in both, but went to Joba earlier, relying more on Hughes to be the bridge to Mariano. Then, in the final game, the Yankees went to Joba in the 7th...and then Mo in the 8th. So who does Joe go to in the World Series in the 7th and who in the 8th? I think he still goes to Joba in the 7th and Hughes in the 8th. Neither have been great this postseason, but I think they go back with what worked so well in the regular season.

Girardi could of course mix-and-match with their bullpen options: bringing in Coke and Marte just for lefties, Aceves for righties who struggle against offspeed pitches and Robertson for those who struggle against the hard stuff. This, of course, is an open invitation for Joe Girardi to overmanage once again, but it could be the best way to get through a tough Phillies lineup rather than relying on the conventional "roles".

There is one more option: go with Mariano Rivera as his own set-up man. Like the Yankees did in Game 6 of the ALCS, Girardi can choose to go to Rivera for 6 outs. He's gone to him for 4 or 5 outs on many occasions this season so this is not out of the realm of possibilities. With all the off days, Rivera could possibly pitch a little more than usual. It'll be interesting to see who Girardi goes to in a big spot in the World Series.

Who do you think Joe should go to? The poll is already up so vote on the right!

NYP: Joba Is Going to Stay in Bullpen for Playoffs

Well this isn't unexpected, but it's still surprising. From the New York Post's Joel Sherman:

Should the Yankees advance to the ALCS, they are leaning heavily toward using Chad Gaudin rather than Joba Chamberlain as the Game 4 starter, The Post has learned.

--snip--

The Yankees want Chamberlain available to impact multiple games as a reliever rather than be a questionable starter for one game. Even if Gaudin were to have a short start, the Yankees have Alfredo Aceves and possibly even Chamberlain to eat up innings in long relief.

In addition, with an off-day scheduled after ALCS Game 4, the Yankees could empty their pen in support of Gaudin, and still have all of their relievers available for a Game 5. There also is a scenario if the Yankees were to sweep this Division Series they could use three starters with CC Sabathia working once on short rest.

Well there it is. If they get to that point, let's hope that Gaudin's starts aren't too short or too bad. It's great and all to have such a deep bullpen, but if you're starting pitching performs, when do you use these guys? CC on short rest makes some sense as well, but they've worked so hard to keep him on regular rest after his lack of success last year on short rest in the playoffs, do they really want to do that? As a short-term move, though, I can live with this. Joba, Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera can all be extended and really shorten a game for the Yankees. It also lessens the wear and tear on Joba's arm, as less postseason innings for his season should be an added benefit of this move.

The reason I am surprised is that Joba has pitched well against the Red Sox this season so if they're the opponent, it seems like it may backfire. The one thing that may ease the fears of Joe Girardi? Gaudin has a 2.64 career ERA in 30.2 innings against Boston. It's not much of a sample size, but it'll have to do if the Red Sox are the opponent.

Paul--who is an ardent Joba-to-the-'pen supporter--probably feels like he won the argument, but I think this is just a temporary move for the playoffs. Hopefully we'll see Joba and Hughes in the rotation next year...with renewed confidence...and World Series rings.

Joba vs. Hughes: Who is a Better Reliever?

As we come to the end of the year, I think it's finally time to look back at the set-up terms of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes to see who performed better:

Joba Chamberlain: 3-2, 1 save, 1.53 ERA, 49 games, 59 innings, 39 hits (11 XBH), 2 HR, 20 BB, 78 K, 1.000 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 3.90 SO/BB, .185/.259/.261 slashes against

Phil Hughes: 5-1, 3 saves, 1.24 ERA, 42 games, 50.2 innings, 28 hits (4 XBH), 2 HR, 13 BB, 64 K, 0.809 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 4.92 SO/BB, .160/.218/.211 slashes against

I know it's a small sample size, but I think that Phil Hughes has been an even better reliever than Joba (as amazing as that is for some people to believe). And if you take their ALDS performance in 2007 when both pitched out of the bullpen, Hughes climbs even more.

More on Joba:

• Jack Curry compares the Joba Rules to Justin [Verlander] Rules. The big difference? Verlander was 26 and already had built up the innings. Joba is 24 and is still building up arm strength.
• Rob Neyer writes that Joba sealed his ALDS fate with last night's start. Though I have to disagree with Rob that Joba shouldn't pitch in the series. Can he not be a help for the bullpen with the numbers he's put up in the past two years working out of there?
• Before Joba's start against the Red Sox, Sweeny Murti asked if the Yankees had ruined Joba. I agree with Sweeny when he says that Joba's 24; let's see what happens with him. Look at Zack Grienke's career path before you declare Joba "ruined".
  
• After watching him pitch well against the Red Sox, Sam Borden wrote that Joba responded to a stern approach. I believe this is how the Yankees should have treated Joba all along. The Yanks got into trouble handing spots to Joba, Hughes and Ian Kennedy last season. They need to be a little less nuturing and a little more firm.
• Within this piece, Peter Gammons says that Joba is important to the Yankees run in the postseason because he could make two Game 4 starts.
  

More on Hughes:

• Bob Klapisch tells you how Phil Hughes has become the 8th inning wonder: Mariano Rivera's cutter. This can only help Hughes as he transitions back to starter next season as Hughes' biggest problem seemed to be the lack of a third pitch.
  
• IIATMS breaks down "The Amazing Phil Hughes" even further. I have to admit that some of that goes way over my head, but it's really interesting the amount of statistical analysis there is out there.
• New York Magazine does a Yankee playoff preview of Phil Hughes and correctly points out he's the last man to win a playoff game for the Yankees (image from that article). There is one place I have to argue with NYMag about: "If a closer is critical to postseason success, then it stands to reason that the man responsible for getting him the ball is pretty important, too." Yes, that man is called your STARTING PITCHER!
  

I know this will drive certain people wild (I can think of a certain WFAN radio host...), but Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will most probably both be starters next season. Let's just hope that Hughes can carry over the success of his relief stint better than Joba has recently. They're both really young and their success as dominant relievers should excite you for their future as (hopefully) dominant starters.

Yankees Playoff Rotation Conundrum

If the Yankees end up holding off the Red Sox and the Angels to win the AL East and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (respectively), they will have a choice to make: do they want to go with a three- or four-man rotation for the first round. Now it's not guaranteed they'll get to make that choice anymore. As The Big Lead points out, the AL East isn't sewn up just yet with the Red Sox five back and the Yankees having 3 games against the Angels and 3 against the Red Sox left (while the Red Sox get 4 against the Royals). Ken Davidoff points out the Yankees can make it really easy for themselves by playing well against the Angels and Red Sox or they can make it a lot more interesting: "If the Sawx can enter the weekend trailing the Yankees by three or fewer games in the loss column, then they can control their own destiny..if the Yankees and Red Sox finish with the same record, AND if Boston beats the Yankees at least once next weekend, then the Red Sox win a seeding tiebreaker based on the head-to-head series this year."

But let's say that doesn't happen (and even if it does, the Yankees are still making the playoffs, just as the Wild Card). Let's pretend that everything stays as is and the Yankees win the AL East and finish with the best record, which series do they choose and who do they pitch? Let's look at the pros and cons of the two options (with all due respect to Rob Neyer, taking Phil Hughes out of the bullpen and making him a starter at this point, is not one of the options...at all):

3-man rotation:

Pros:

• Joba doesn't have to start. Tyler Kepner calls him a riddle. Peter Abraham points out that he's 0-4 with an 8.42 ERA in his last eight starts and opponents have hit .331 against him, and, maybe even worse, he's overconfident, refusing to acknowledge he's doing anything wrong. Jon Heyman thought that pitching coach Dave Eiland had found something in Joba's delivery, but maybe there still needs to be fixing. Peter Gammons wrote that the Joba rules have been all about preserving Chamberlain, but at this point, it can't be denied that they're hurting him.
• Joba could slide into the 'pen. Sliding Into Home caught a Jon Heyman tweet which suggested just that. Imagine Joba for the 7th, Hughes for the 8th and Rivera for the 9th in the playoffs. That could be pretty deadly. I'm not sure if they would do it given his recent struggles and the need to stretch him out, but the Yankees could move Joba Chamberlain into the bullpen for the first round and it would shorten games a great deal.
  
• This would also mean one less bullpen arm would be needed so you could go with another bench player. Freddy Guzman or Ramiro Pena or Francisco Cervelli or Shelly Duncan would be a nice way to fill out the rest of the bench.
  

Cons:

• You're relying a lot on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte. Sabathia has a postseason ERA of 7.92. Burnett has been wildly inconsistent. Pettitte has a sore arm and pitched horribly last season with arm troubles. Are you really confident in CC and A.J. for two games and Pettitte for one in a 5 game series? If Sabathia loses game 1, it could be over in a hurry.
• As Ken Rosenthal points out, the Yankees already don't know whether to start Pettitte or Burnett in Game 2...but if you start them in Game 2, you HAVE to bring them back for a potential Game 5. So if they are bad, they're going to have to come back out.
  
• You're losing out on the Tigers (or the Twins 4th starter). That could mean not facing Jarrod Washburn or Rick Porcello for the Tigers or someone like Carl Pavano for the Twins. Although Joba hasn't been great, if he can be decent, he should be better than those guys.
  
• You would also allow the Tigers to use Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson in four out of the five games. Considering what both of them have done this season, is that something you want to be doing?
  

4-man rotation:

Pros:

• You're going to have to throw a 4th starter if you make the ALCS, and if that guy is going to be Joba, you need to continue to work him. If you believe your other three starters are good enough and your bullpen is good enough, you almost need to make sure he's fresh. Throwing him on irregular rest hasn't worked in the past and it definitely won't in the playoffs.
• You can set up Andy and Joba on the road. This is huge. They do not pitch well at all at the New Yankee Stadium (their home-road splits prove it) and being able to throw these guys both on the road can only help.
  
• As I said above, it forces the other team to use someone they don't want to as well. Washburn has been hurt, Porcello is a rookie, Pavano is still the American Idle. The Tigers would probably have to use Washburn AND Porcello.
  
• It also forces your opponent to use another bench spot on a reliever. The Yankees are lucky because Hairston and Pena play so many positions, but will the Tigers or Twins be so lucky with their bench?
• Mark Feinsand points out that the Yankees are going to give Joba every opportunity to succeed. Wouldn't throwing him in the first round of the playoffs instead of skipping over him be the way to go if that is truly the way they are thinking? If you skip him over in the first round, are you really going to have him be in the physical and mental state to start in the ALCS if needed?
  

Cons:

• Again, you'll have to start a Joba Chamberlain who isn't stretched out, hasn't pitched well and got rocked yesterday by a Mariners team that is hitting deficient. The Tigers and Twins aren't mashers, but they'll pose problems for Joba.
• You take away a bench spot which could be big when you want to pinch run for some of the slower members of the Yankees team later on in games.
  
• If you go this route and determine that Joba can't go, your options are limited. Tyler Kepner points out Sergio Mitre has been bad as well (Mitre: 37 1/3 innings, 46 hits, 27 earned runs, 10 walks, 26 strikeouts, 6.51 E.R.A.) and Josh Towers, Ian Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves don't seem to ready to fill that role. The one man who may be able to do it, Chad Gaudin, doesn't exactly inspire a great deal of confidence, either.
  

So what do you think? Do you choose a 3-game or 4-game series? I think the Yankees have two weeks to figure it out. I agree with River Avenue Blues, it comes down to Joba. If Joba can figure it out the last few games, you ride that momentum and start him in the playoffs. If Chad Gaudin continues to pitch well, maybe you scrap Joba all together and pitch Gaudin as the 4th starter when needed. If the team has momentum, they may want to start the day early and just continue to ride it. I think the Yankees, if given the opportunity, will choose to go only 3 starters, but judging by some of the pros of using the 4-man rotation, I wouldn't be surprised if they go that route.

Blown Save Magnet

Last year I was at the Indians game where Joba Chamberlain blew a save. It was the only blown save of his career.

Last night I was at the Rays game where Phil Hughes blew a save. It was the only blown save of his career.

At least last night they won it in a walk-off (Joba's surrendered home run to David Dellucci last year proved to be the game winner), but that's pretty bad luck for me with the set-up men.

Let's not panic, though. It was only the fourth time in 34 relief appearances that Hughes has surrendered a run, and only the second home run. Hughes had gone 12.1 innings without giving up a run up until that point. He also recovered and got the dangerous Ben Zobrist to bounce into a double play to preserve the tie.

Blown saves happen...it just seems to happen to me a lot more. That, my friends, is a bunch of BS--pun intended

Time For Joba Rules III

So much for the recent Joba Rules. From PeteAbe:

Joba Chamberlain will be in the rotation moving forward, meaning he will pitch every five games. They decided he needed to pitch more regularly. The innings limit hasn’t changed. Some starts will be less than five innings.

This does make more sense. It'll keep his innings limit the same, but not have him go on weird rest periods. You have to expect they'll have the shorter outings now so they can build him up past 100 pitches so he's ready to go as their #4 starter in October.

This comes on the heels of Rick Peterson saying the Yankees are doing right by Joba. Baseball Musings pointed out that maybe it wasn't the short rest, but just pitching at Yankee Stadium (where Joba is not good) that has caused his struggles. Steven Goldman is happy (as is Kevin Kernan of the NY Post) as he thinks the Yankees were screwing too much with his schedule.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Joba down the stretch. If he can get back to where he was right after the All-Star break, the Yankees have a very dangerous starting 4 come October.