Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010 Pt 2

Back in December we took a trip in the time machine back to last off-season and looked at how close the Yankees came to the "Worst Case Scenario" series we did last year. We started with Part 1 and the starting lineup. Well let's continue that with theme today with Part 2, which was the starting pitching staff. By then I realized that non-Yankee fans were taking a lot of joy in my scenarios but it didn't stop me from looking at what would go horribly wrong if the pitching staff fell apart. Let's see how close we got to that scenario:

AJ Burnett was a "black eye" for the Yankees (FanHouse)

CC Sabathia
What I said worst-case would look like: "Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series...According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys."

What actually happened: Sabathia's arm and body held up another year's grind, starting an AL-leading 34 games, pitching 237.2 innings, and winning a Major League-leading 21 games. Sabathia was an All-Star, came in third in the Cy Young voting, and 13th in the MVP voting. He pitched about as well during the regular season as he did in his first year in Pinstripes (with less strikeouts but more groundballs). The issue for CC was when he hit the playoffs. After being stellar in 2009, he was so-so to bad in 2010. He started three times but only pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up a whopping 22 hits and 10 earned runs, striking out 15 but walking 7, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch, and being charged with a balk. Sabathia was a huge reason the Yankees made the playoffs (from August 7th-September 2nd he won every time he started), but for them to win the World Series in 2011, they need him to carry it through to the playoffs.

A.J. Burnett

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In Favor of a Catching Competition This Spring

In 2003, Bernie Williams looked to be about done manning centerfield. He was only one year removed from a tremendous 2002 campaign, but after only playing 119 games in 2003 and with bad knees in centerfield to boot, the Yankees weren't content just letting Williams flounder around in center (his UZR was -20.2 in 2003 after -16.2 in 2002) and in the off-season they brought in Kenny Lofton as a free agent and told Williams he could fight it out with Lofton for CF and Ruben Sierra for DH. That's tough love for one of the most important Yankees of the past few decades, but it was just what Williams needed. That tough love--that competition--lit a fire under Williams. Williams would never be that pre-2003 player again, but at least in 2004 he gave the Yankees what he had given them in 2004, beat out Lofton in CF*, and, more importantly, he worked hard to win the job--and stuck around for two more years after that.

Montero will righfully have to earn it this Spring (LoHud)

The Yankees are in a similar situation with Jorge Posada. They have a very important player to their organization, a player who has probably been one of the top catchers of all-time (at least on the offensive side), a border-line Hall of Famer. But Posada's defense has gotten so bad and his hitting isn't anymore to the point where you can excuse that defensive liability just because of the hitting he provides. Having gone through the entire slate of external back-up catchers and realizing that Posada was eventually was going to turn into a pumpkin like Williams did, Brian Cashman and the Yankees organization has done a good job of stockpiling catching prospects. Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Francisco Cervelli, Gary Sanchez, JR Murphy and others fill the Yankees organization throughout and provide themselves with an opportunity to not go out there and pay for old, mediocre players (as they did with Lofton in 2004).

But they shouldn't just hand the reigns of the DH to Posada nor the hands of the catching game to Montero, Romine, or Cervelli. After the 2007 season, the Yankees decided to hand the pitching over to a youth movement without any competition. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes managed to win zero games in 2008 as the Yankees back-of-the-rotation starters. Now this would be fine if the Yankees could afford a rebuilding year because look at what Hughes and Kennedy did this past season--they won a combined 27 games in each of their first full years as starters. But this is the Yankees and with most of their top players on the wrong side of the baseball age, they need to field a team next year that will make the playoffs.

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 6

For the past history of tonight's match-up between Phil Hughes and Colby Lewis, check out the post from Game 2. Of course, what happened in Game 2 isn't included in those numbers, but they should give you a good sense of the two pitchers' history with the Yankees. As you may remember from Game 2, Lewis pitched pretty well (only two runs given up despite 6 hits and 3 walks in 5.2 innings) and Hughes got bombed. ESPN's Katie Sharp goes into greater detail on the match-up and figures out that the breaking point between the two performances occurred at two-strikes.

Phil Hughes looks focused as tonight as he tries to stave off elimination (LoHud)

In Game 2, Hughes struggled to finish off hitters when getting to two strikes, as the Rangers went 5-for-11 (.455), including four extra base hits, in two-strike counts. Hughes also left his pitches up, and the Rangers capitalized, going 6-for-8 (.750) on pitches in the upper third of the zone and above. 

This has been an issue for many of the Yankee pitchers. They have--for the most part--been OK at getting ahead in the count, but the Rangers have been able to foul off a lot of two-strike pitches. CC Sabathia had this trouble with the Rangers on Wednesday as many of the hitters battled him even with two strikes. Hughes' key tonight is finding a way to put the Rangers hitters away.

One key for Lewis in Game 2 was his use of the curveball as an out pitch, as the Yankees went 0-for-4 against the hook. Lewis was also effective in getting Yankee hitters to chase pitches, with four of his six total strikeouts coming on pitches out of the zone.

Again, the issues for the Yankees came with two strikes. It will be even more important to resist the temptation to chase pitches tonight, as free-swinging Marcus Thames will be replacing Mark Teixeira's bat in the line-up and another free-swinger--Robinson Cano--will be moving up in the lineup to the third slot. The Yankees ability to get hits off of Lewis with runners on and to get to the Rangers bullpen early will be a key to this game.

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 2

After last night's thrilling win in Texas, it's time to come back and try to take yet another game in Texas. Let's see how tonight's starting pitching match-up looks:

Phil Hughes vs. the Rangers hitters (including playoffs)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GDP
Josh Hamilton	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000	0
Nelson Cruz	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.400	.600	0
Vladimir Guerrero	7	7	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	.286	.286	.286	.571	1
Ian Kinsler	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.167	.000	.167	1
Mike Young	8	7	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.125	.000	.125	1
Elvis Andrus	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Jorge Cantu	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Jeff Francoeur	7	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
David Murphy	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0
Total	42	40	4	2	0	0	1	2	8	.100	.143	.150	.293	3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/16/2010.

Phil Hughes gets his second start of the playoffs and this time him and Andy Pettitte flip-flop spots in the rotation (one can debate whether it makes a difference). Hughes' time against the Rangers is quite limited, his most famous outing being a no-hitter in Texas that he had to come out of after only 6.1 innings in 2007 due to a hamstring issue. Hughes 2010 experience was an inning in relief on September 10th. Overall Hughes has pitched three times against the Rangers (two starts), has pitched 15.1 innings, given up only 3 hits, struck out 13 and walked 4. Vlad Guerrero was the one Ranger who has faced Hughes in the playoffs (in last year's ALCS). Overall, Hughes has pitched better on the road in his career, but especially in 2010, where his ERA is 1.19 runs better away from the Bronx.

Colby Lewis vs. the Yankees hitters

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Yankees will pitch AJ Burnett in ALCS

MLB.com reported last night that the Yankees will use AJ Burnett in the ALCS, regardless of whether they face the Rangers or the Rays.

Photo courtesy of the NY Post.

Burnett, as we all know, had a very poor season in 2010.  The numbers tell most of the story: AJ went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA over 186.2 innings.  He also compiled a 1.51 WHIP, a 9.8 H/9, and a 1.2 HR/9 (those last two stats are the highest of his career).  In fact, Burnett's season was so bad that it could be the worst season of any Yankees pitcher.  Ever.  No pitcher had ever thrown at least 180 innings with an ERA that high.  At the very least, AJ's performance was the worst value in pro sports. So it made sense that the Yankees left him off their ALDS roster, right?  Right.

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Twins Game 3

The Yankees are up 2-0 and going for the sweep tonight in the Bronx, can Phil Hughes get them to the ALCS? Let's take a look at the matchups:

Phil Hughes vs. the Twins hitters (including playoffs)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SF	GDP
Nick Punto	4	3	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	.667	.500	1.000	1.500	1	0
Jason Kubel	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.667	.750	.667	1.417	0	0
Denard Span	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.667	.750	.667	1.417	0	0
Jim Thome	6	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	2	.250	.500	.250	.750	0	0
Michael Cuddyer	7	6	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	.167	.286	.333	.619	0	0
Delmon Young	7	6	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	.333	.286	.333	.619	1	1
Joe Mauer	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500	0	1
Matt Tolbert	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0
Total	39	32	11	2	0	0	3	5	5	.344	.410	.406	.817	2	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/9/2010.

There is not a lot of history here with seven of these PAs coming in last year's playoffs with Hughes as the set-up man. It wasn't a great performance, though Game 2 was where he really struggled. In last year's playoffs, Denard Span and Nick Punto led the way with two hits a piece vs. Hughes. In the regular season, Hughes has made 3 appearances vs. the Twins (1 start), pitching 7.1 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs (including two home runs), 4 walks and 4 strikeouts. All three appearances were last season, with his start coming May 15th where he pitched 5 innings and gave up runs including two home runs to Justin Morneau--who, of course, will not be playing tonight (neither will Punto). Hughes had two relief appearances in mid-July and shut down the Twins.

Brian Duensing vs. the Yankees hitters (including playoffs)

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The Yankees Will Have to Go Without Marte and Aceves in 2010

Two important members of the 2009 World Series Championship team will not be back for the 2010 team. From the New York Daily News' Peter Botte:

Hughes will have his next start skipped due to innings limits (LoHud)

Phil Hughes will be skipped one start in the Yankees rotation to limit his innings, Joe Girardi said before Wednesday's series finale against Baltimore. Dustin Moseley will start Sunday in Texas, and Hughes will return to the rotation next Wednesday in Tampa.

Also, Girardi said Alfredo Aceves (back) will not return this season, and Damaso Marte (shoulder) will "probably not" be back in 2010.

The first bit of news is not surprising. Hughes is currently on pace for about 181 regular season innings which would probably be too many for him if he was also asked to start in the playoffs. Although Hughes almost certainly slots in as a start in the playoffs, it probably wouldn't hurt to give his arm some rest. Since they first skipped a start for Hughes in late June after Hughes was 10-1, Hughes is 6-6 in 13 starts (73 innings) since with a 5.55 ERA, 15 HR allowed and an .833 OPS against. Although the track record for skipping Hughes' starts hasn't been great, the results he's put up since June haven't been consistently stellar either so this makes a ton of sense.

The Aceves and Marte news is not great for the Yankees, though they seemed to be resigned to move on without them before this news came down today. Marte has not been a great regular season pitcher for the Yankees but his pitching in the playoffs last year was a big reason they won the World Series (5.2 innings of no-hit ball in the ALCS and World Series). Amazingly, Marte pitched in 30 games for the Yankees in 2010 (the last being on July 7th) which is tied with CC Sabathia for the 4th most on the team behind Joba Chamberlain (60 games), Mariano Rivera (52), David Robertson (52), and Boone Logan (39). The last guy on that list, Logan, is the reason the Yankees can probably be OK with Marte being out. Logan has stepped up in a big way to solidify the lefty specialist role in the bullpen (lefties hitting .194 vs. Logan with one XBH in 70 PAs).

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Quick Hits: FanGraphs Event, Yankee Bullpen, Mets, Cervelli, CC, Granderson, and Other Baseball Thoughts

It's time to play some catch-up on the blog. A little of a lot here on a Monday. Some quick hits for you:

- The FanGraphs Live event last Saturday in Manhattan was awesome. I thoroughly enjoyed the conference and the panels were all extremely engaging. Amanda Rykoff has a great review of the whole event at The OCD Chick, and Dave Cameron and Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs both have great recaps. A few observations/conclusions from the panel:

The FanGraphs live event was awesome

• I may be a nerd (Amanda did label this a "mini-dorkapalooza")
• Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues dislikes Francisco Cervelli as much on Twitter as he does in real life (and Jay Jaffe of Pinstriped Bible dishes out some dislike as well)
• Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues argues that the strength of the AL East pushes each team to get better
• Reporting on Twitter discourages analysis and makes it more about a personal brand
• The Wall Street Journal has a great formula for their sports section: smart, funny and analytical
• The game story is slowly leaving the papers (and with it, the need for the box score as well as Tim Kurkjian wrote on ESPN)
• Bloomberg Sports has an awesome fantasy sports tool that can even show video of Jeff Francouer drawing multiple walks
• Statistics are now for a wider audience than just nerds (though Tim Marchman of SI looks at the problems with defensive stats)
• The biggest myth in sports (according to one panelists) is that the pitcher stopping his windup mid-motion has led to a lot of injuries 
• I now own a FanGraphs t-shirt
• "Accept randomness"
• It was nice to finally meet in person people like Ben and Amanda who were, until now, just Twitter avatars and bylines on blog posts. This type of thing should occur more often.

- Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked today (re: the Yankees bullpen): "Do you believe in this group?" At one point the answer would most certainly have been no, but Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan and Kerry Wood have joined together to form a nice "Bridge to Mariano". The Yankees bullpen in August is 1-1 (the one loss came from Mariano Rivera) with a 1.02 ERA in 35.1 innings and has a WHIP of 0.991. Since July 2nd, they've only allowed 16% of inherited runners to score (which was a bugaboo for a while with this team as they were at 30% at that point). With Andy Pettitte coming back (forcing Dustin Moseley back to the bullpen), and Alfredo Aceves and Damaso Marte on the mend, this is looking like a pretty good group. And despite his latest glitch, Mariano Rivera is pretty great/probably the greatest ever. The Yankees are 62-0 when leading after 8.

-CC Sabathia is getting less strikeouts as David Golebiewski of FanGraphs pointed out today and Dave Cameron pointed out last week. Here's my theory: from 2005 to 2010, Sabathia's thrown more innings than anyone in baseball. Maybe he's resting his arm a bit knowing he has plenty of years left to pitch in baseball. While strikeouts are the surest way to prevent outs, groundouts are usually a good way as well and they usually require less pitches. That's probably a good thing for someone who will have over 20,000 pitches in a 6-year span. Like Girardi told Chad Jennings of LoHud: "we don't want to wear the big guy down."

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NYaT's Yankee Wishlist for the Trade Deadline

It's hard to "fix" a team that's on pace to win 104 regular season games, has the best record and run differential in baseball, and has won more games at home than Baltimore has in their entire season--but we're going to try. With the trade deadline fast approaching and Tampa Bay right on the Yankees' heels, I asked my fellow NYaT'ers what they think the Yankees need to do to put this group over the top. A compiled list of results below: 

Brett the Jet hitting #1 could help Yanks (Star-Ledger)

1. Move Brett Gardner to the leadoff spot. I'm not sure why this hasn't been done already, but I'm going to throw this out there as my personal "big fix" for the Yankees. The Yankees have argued that hitting him 9th gives them a "second leadoff hitter". Explain to me that logic? Why not just have him as your first leadoff hitter? Gardner is hitting .300/.397/.403 with a .372 wOBA and is on pace for almost 50 steals. Derek Jeter is having a down year, hitting .274/.338/.388 with a .324 wOBA which is just a tick under Juan Miranda's. And yet Jeter is unmovable from the leadoff spot while Gardner is left for the bottom 3rd of the lineup? The Yankees have been at a loss to find their #2 hitter since Nick Johnson went down with an injury early in the season, but I'm pretty sure their solution has just been hitting first. Imagine how much better the Yankees lineup would be with Gardner-Jeter-Tex-ARod-Cano-Posada-Swisher. Moving Swisher down creates more of a fluid lineup and will stretch their lineup even deeper. Gardner also gets on base vs. lefties (remember when the Yankees were worried about his right-handed caddy for Gardner instead of for Granderson) with a .391 OBP.

And here's another factor: Gardner leads the Major Leagues in pitchers per plate appearance at 4.61 (and by a lot). The last guy to even approach that number was Rickey Henderson's 4.55 in 1997. That many pitches makes the starter work harder and helps to tire him out faster. And, by the way, the last Yankee to have an OBP of at least .397 and steal 45 bases? Rickey Henderson in 1985. I'm not saying that Gardner is Rickey--but wouldn't you want to give him more plate appearances to find out?

Joba hasn't stepped up as the "Bridge to Mariano" (NYDN)

2. An upgrade in the bullpen. This is where my compadres and I differ in our opinions. I've seen the Yankees waste decent prospects on mediocre relievers just to theoretically get a small advantage before the trade deadline. I saw the Red Sox go out and get Eric Gagne in 2007. I'm just not a fan of the big fix reliever. I don't think they exist. You need a closer, and some solid guys in front and that's it, in my opinion. The Yankees could tweak that bullpen by calling back up Jonathan Albaladejo and Ivan Nova (and getting rid of dead weight guys like CHoP and Chad Gaudin). But others differed.

Paul said: "They don’t need to do much but the one issue is the bullpen. They need help, I just don’t know who. I would love Scott Downs but the Jays are asking too much. I don’t want them to trade any good prospects for middle relief so they should be careful. I also hope they don’t trade Joba."

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The Yankee Clipper: Starting Pitching

I was all ready to write today's Yankee Clipper on the Yankees starting rotation but then this weekend happened. A.J. Burnett punched something and had to leave the game with cuts on his hand Saturday and then Sunday and Andy Pettitte left early yesterday with a groin strain that will keep him out at least the rest of the month. So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the status update I'll now do for their starters. But here we go into the starting rotation:

1. Andy Pettitte. Yesterday's game marked the first time that Pettitte didn't go 5 innings in a start this season and in those 18 starts, he's only given up more than 4 earned runs once (6 against the Rays in May). Pettitte came into yesterday 11-2 (league-leading .846 winning percentage) with a 2.70 ERA and I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that he's been the Yankees' most consistent starter so far this season. So then the starter that the Yankees have counted on so much this season (the team is 15-3 in games he starts) left early with a groin injury. Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman estimates that Pettitte will be out 4-5 weeks, but the injury expert, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, thinks that may be overly cautious and thinks that Pettitte will be back the second of August. Before the injury, Pettitte was on pace for 20 wins and had his lowest American League ERA since 1997--but he was also on pace to throw 205 innings for the first time since 2007. Yankees fans remember that in 2008 Pettitte had arm troubles so if there is one silver lining for the Yankees, it is that Pettitte will be well-rested down the stretch. But that is of little consolation to the Yankees who are without the AL All-Star Pettitte for a while now. Pettitte has been exceptionally good in 2010 at limiting the amount of hits against him and decreasing the amount of walks he issues, though the former may be somewhat due to luck--Pettitte's .274 BABIP is well-below his career .314 and his 3.97 FIP and 4.06 xFIP reflects that fact. But Pettitte has produced results so far for the Yankees. According to FanGraphs, some of it is due to his cut fastball and curveball being more effective than they've been in years and ditching the slider (which was a bad pitch for him in 2009). The Yankees must be pretty upset right now they didn't get Cliff Lee and they hope that Andy is Dandy for them again soon. If the Yankees can get Pettitte back by the second week in August and have him for the stretch drive, I think they'd take that. Pettitte is usually his best in the second half and the Yankees need the 2001 ALCS MVP to defend their World Series title. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.12 ERA, 25 K, .602 OPS against.
2. A.J. Burnett. If the Yankees hadn't been winning the past two years, you have to imagine that people would be getting a bit more upset with Burnett's performance in Pinstripes. Last year he had an up-and-down season where he dominated at times but led the league in walks and wild pitches showing that other times he was all over the place. The only thing that Burnett is consistent in is his inconsistency. 2010 started out well for Burnett but has seen him dip to a losing record, an ERA pushing 5, and a Major League worst 12 hit batters. He's allowed no earned runs in 5 starts but he's also allowed 6 or more earned runs 6 times. Through the end of May, Burnett was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Since, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has gone to the dark side as he's 1-6 with a 8.15 ERA and .965 OPS against in his past 8 starts. His last start ended early after his punching incident which he blamed on "falling" originally before being caught. I love the pies he brings and his swagger at times on the mound, but Burnett's lack of maturity at times is disheartening and his inability to compose himself is frustrating. Carroll writes about Burnett: "Burnett is certainly not the first pitcher to do something stupid. The meme of a pitcher hitting something with his pitching hand is so strong that it's a full scene in Bull Durham. Burnett cut his hands on a plexiglass lineup holder. Burnett is expected to be back for his next start, though there are some whispers that there could be a push-back if he doesn't make his throw day and show that the cuts won't be an issue." Not exactly what the Yankees were looking for from their #2 starter coming into the season. Burnett's problem is that when he's bad, he's really bad. In his wins, Burnett holds opposing hitters to a .191/.251/.231 line and in his losses it jumps to .363/.453/.701--meaning that in his losses, Burnett isn't even giving his team a good chance to win. Most disturbing for me about Burnett though is about in his results on the field where we've seen his K/9 drop from 9.56 in 2007 to 9.39 in 2006 to 8.48 in 2009 to only 6.71 this season. That's a big concern for the Yankees as Burnett's true value comes from his ability to finish guys off after he gets himself into jams. There is still some debate about whether this inability to gets misses with the bats are due to lost velocity or just not being able to locate the curveball as R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs suggested a month ago. But whatever is the culprit, this is not good news for the Yankees who are still on the hook for 3 more expensive years of Burnett after 2010. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.43 ERA, 20 K, 1.200 WHIP, .660 OPS against.

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My All-Star Team: American League Pitchers

We've tackled the hitters from the American League and the hitters from the National League, now we'll try to tackle the American League pitching. There's only one qualification: starters need to qualify for the ERA title. Let's go through process of elimination to fill out the rest of our team which will include 8 starters and 5 relievers.

Starters: 55 starting pitchers qualify for the ERA title. We need to whittle that 55 down to 8 so let's start by cutting all pitchers with an ERA that isn't under 4.50. It's not the best statistic to start out with since it eliminates hard-luck guys like Gavid Floyd (4.80 ERA but 3.47 FIP), Luke Hochevar (4.96 ERA but 3.86 FIP) and Brandon Morrow (4.50 ERA but 3.43 FIP). It also eliminates such big names as A.J. Burnett (5.25 ERA), Ben Sheets (5.01 ERA), Jake Peavy (4.71 ERA), John Lackey (4.69 ERA), and Mark Buehrle (4.58 ERA). Some of them may have some great peripheral statistics and just have gotten burned, but if you have an ERA of 4.50 or above, you're not an All Star in my book.

Now we're down to 30 pitchers. Next we'll eliminate anyone whose winning percentage is less that .450 and haven't won more than 5 games. That gets rid of Zack Greinke (3-8), Dallas Braden (4-7), Jeremy Guthrie (3-9) and Jeremy Bondermon (4-5). Greinke is a tough loss here, but at 3-8, it's tough to convince me he's an All Star. I know that Win-Loss record is not a good metric to go on, but the truth is that despite Greinke or Braden's great pitching, their teams haven't won enough games to get them to the All-Star game. 26 left.

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The Yankee Clipper: World Series Rematch Preview

It's been a while since the Yankee Clipper has sailed so I figured it was time to get some Yankee thoughts out there. Today's post come after my astonishment that the Yankees once had a mascot named Dandy as the Wall Street Journal talked about today (and where that picture on the right comes from). Looking at those pictures, I think the Yankees are much better without a mascot. On to the top 5:

1. One thing the Yankees aren't better without is CC Sabathia. Despite Sabathia's struggles, he's still their ace. Make no mistake about that one. When the Yankees needed wins down the stretch and in the playoffs last year, they gave CC the ball and, most of the time, they won. And, despite that fact that many are discounting it, ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand pointed out that his numbers from this year after 13 starts are pretty similar to his numbers through 13 starts from last season. True his numbers on the Yankees weren't as good as his numbers pre-Yankees as ESPN's Rob Neyer points out, but I don't think that's enough to worry about for CC. He still is racking up the wins and even though he's doing it quite a bit against teams like the Orioles which concerns the New York Posts' Joel Sherman, good teams (and good pitchers) are supposed to beat up on bad teams HarballTalk's Craig Calcaterra writes and if he looks good in those starts (as ESPN's TMI blog points out he did against the Os), it doesn't matter much to me. Would I love to see the dominant CC from last summer show up again? Sure. But since it took a while for him to show up in 2009 and the results were pretty damn good, I'm willing to have patience in 2010 as well.
2. Even with Sabathia struggling, the Yankees have been the best team in baseball. They're tied for the best record, have the best run differential in baseball (+103), the most runs scored in baseball (355), the best home record in baseball (22-7), and ESPN Power Rankings has them at #1 (which is probably the kiss of death). This is also without a productive Mark Teixeira, a powerful Alex Rodriguez, a healthy Nick Johnson, a catching Jorge Posada, or a dominant bullpen. 
3. Phil Hughes has been a big part of the past year. As ESPN's TMI blog points out, Hughes was demoted to the bullpen last season on June 14th and in the year since has gone 16-2 with a 2.36 ERA, 122 IP, only 6 HR allowed and 133 K to 33 BB. He wasn't spectacular in his last start but still found a way to win. While Stephen at TYU argues that the birthday boy Andy Pettitte is no All-Star (and I disagree with him, but that's for another post), there's no doubting that Hughes should be heading to Anaheim (close to his hometown) for the Midsummer Classic.

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