A girl's survival guide to live fantasy football drafts

Here we have another wonderful post by our newest blogger, Elissa Glucksman!  This represents the start of a series of posts featuring a female perspective on the manly world of sports.  Enjoy :-)
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I have always been a sports fan. When I was a little girl I watched Mets and Jets games with my dad, and growing up I always loved talking/debating sports with boyfriends. (Yes, I was that girl.) But there is one aspect of sports that I have never truly experienced until this past year, and that is the world of fantasy sports. I know that this is going to sound absurd to most fantasy sports fans, but in my mind, fantasy anything involved groups of dungeons and dragons players hitting each other with oversized Styrofoam sticks behind the right field fence of our softball field. As far as I was concerned, I wanted nothing to do with fantasy [insert sport here].

Someone got the wear-a-jersey-to-the-draft memo!

That said, I’m not one to miss out on a new sports trend, especially one as popular as fantasy sports. So last year I managed my first fantasy football team. It was an all-girls league with an auto-draft. (I’ve come to learn that auto-drafts are the equivalent of Rosie Ruiz hopping on the subway to finish the New York City Marathon – a cheap way of achieving an end that most other people work for.) For me, it was the perfect entrée into fantasy sports. There was very little pressure (this may come as a surprise, but happiness for most girls does not depend on how their fantasy team performed on any given Sunday) and I didn’t have to do any homework before beginning this extracurricular activity. Which brings me to last week’s draft.

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View From The Seats

Greeting from the big ballpark in the Bronx. In a pretty empty Yankee Stadium (it was a Stubhub special tonight with prices dropping into the $1s and $2s), have moved around, now in Terrace 308, row 3 (where that picture comes from). Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher have all hit deep (and high) home runs and Jorge Posada had a triple (?!) to give the Yankees a 9-2 lead.

Phil Hughes hasn't been great and has labored on the mound, making Andy Pettitte's recovery even more important. At least Hughes' innings limits won't be tested tonight (though if it's based on pitches, he could be pushing it). The Yankees luckily have knocked around New Jersey native, Vin Mazzaro, which has gotten the A's bullpen going here in the 4th (Boof Bonser?!). With both the Rays and Red Sox currently losing, this could turn out to be a big night for the Yankees.

-Andrew

Summer TV Review: Sorting Through the (6th Season of) Weeds

It's been a long while since I did a TV review, and after watching last night's third episode of Season 6 of Weeds, "A Yippity Sippity", I felt it was time to start back on this road once again. Weeds is a show that I've been considering dropping from the rotation from a while and so far Season 6 hasn't really done much to sway my opinion. It seems that every since Weeds and the Botwins left Agrestic at the end of Season 3--and they did away with the amazingly entertaining "Little Boxes" intros sung by everyone from Elvis Costello, Regina Spektor and Randy Newman (which happens to be Andy's name this season) to The Shins, The Decemberists and Linkin Park--the show's plot has been moving in no apparent direction as the Botwin's do the same.

Even Nancy Botwin seems bored by Weeds (Showtime)

The best part of the show used to be Mary-Louise Parker  but the Nancy Botwin character has been so static and unchanged for so long, she isn't all that fun anymore (though it's still worth a read of the odd Variety interview Parker just did). Her total disregard for her parental responsibilities and her unwavering attitude against leading a straight life have moved her from an intriguing character to downright frustrating. This is a dark show, but this season has been especially dark and unnecessarily so at times (like Silas being paid to read choose-your-own-adventures to the dad on Clarissa Explains It All sans clothes on). And in the end, despite everything that made their lives a living hell, Nancy and the Botwins still return to dealing pot. In some ways, Nancy as the dealer is the biggest addict of them all. She is willing to put her family at risk so many times to get her dealing "fix" and to satisfy her own personal needs that she went from an extremely sympathetic character looking to get her family through the loss of their father to a selfish woman incapable of seeing how she is ruining her children. Even her rant in the past episode of how her kids would have had to go to a worse school and live in a worse house if she didn't deal drugs (and instead worked at the Gap) was so shallow and materialistic that it made me question whether any of the past 5 seasons were even necessary.

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Trivia Tuesday: 100 Win Edition

The Tampa Bay Devils Rays are trying to win 100 games for the first time in franchise history (coolstandings.com have them on pace for exactly 100, PECOTA at exactly 99, and Baseball Prospectus at 98.7) . Currently they are among a group of 8 current Major League franchises who have never reached the century mark according to Baseball-Reference. Can you name the other 7?

Bonus Question: According to MLB Park Factors from ESPN (Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road) Coors Field, Yankee Stadium and the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington are the three best hitters parks as far as run scoring is concerned. Which 5 MLB parks currently suppress the most runs according to MLB Park Factors?

Put your answers into the comments below. I'll reveal the correct answers later. Good luck!

An Early Review of the Yankees 2010 Transactions

Yankees fans may have been spoiled by the 2009 season. After missing the 2008 playoffs, Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman went to work on building the 2009 team and added many important pieces including Sergio Mitre, Damaso Marte (a resigning), Andy Pettitte (ditto) Nick Swisher (for basically nothing), A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira. The mid-season trades worked out as well as they acquired Romulo Sanchez (a possible 2010 September call-up if healthy) for a spare part, Eric Hinske for more spare parts, Jerry Hairston, Jr. for yet more spare parts, and then picked up Chad Gaudin and Freddy Guzman during the waiver wire period. Every one of those players contributed in one way or another (except for Sanchez) to the 2009 World Series winning team and Brian Cashman came away looking like a genius who turned everything he touched into gold.

Thames has been Cashman's best off-season move to date (NYDN)

The Midas Touch didn't translate as well to 2010. The Yankees traded Brian Bruney for a Rule 5 draft pick (Jamie Hoffmann). They traded Phil Coke, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson. They signed Nick Johnson, traded and signed a ton of spare outfielders (Reid Gorecki, Greg Golson, Jason Pridie, Chad Huffman, etc.), traded for Javier Vazquez (and Boone Logan), signed Randy Winn, Royce Ring, Dustin Moseley, Marcus Thames, Chad Moeller, and Chan Ho Park. Since the season started they resigned Chad Gaudin, signed Eric Bruntlett and Chad Tracy (the latter which has been released), and traded for Austin Kearns, Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood.

While the 2010 mid-season moves have worked out to date, the off-season moves have not. Hoffmann lasted until March and then they returned him to the Dodgers (despite rumors he would be traded back, he's still with Los Angeles). Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson have all excelled for their new teams, and Granderson has been a huge disappointment for the Yankees*. Nick Johnson (injuries) and Javier Vazquez (ineffectiveness) both have been huge disasters in their return to the Yankees, and although Michael Dunn for Boone Logan is a wash and I don't think Melky Cabrera truly had a place on this team, Arodys Vizcaino (the prospect traded in the deal), dominated the Sally League going 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA, a WHIP under 1, and a SO/BB ratio of 7.33 before being promoted (and remains one of Atlanta's best prospects).

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Who Did You Root For This Weekend?

As a Yankee fan, I felt torn this weekend: do I root for the Tampa Bay Rays or the Boston Red Sox? On Twitter and the blogosphere, the question was debated back and forth as well. But as I sat there last night watching Sunday night baseball, I felt conflicted. So besides rooting for a 20-inning game, a tie, or an implosion of Tropicana Field (just kidding on the last one), I figured I had to pick sides. So, I *gulp* picked the Red Sox--but barely. Here's what went into the decision:

Carlos Pena & the Rays bowled over the Red Sox taking 2 of 3 (St. Pete Times)

Although the Yankees and Red Sox have two series left (a home-and-home sort of deal), I'm not sure Boston will be a team the Yankees will have to worry about. Coolstandings.com has the Red Sox at 0.5% to win the division and 5.7% to win the Wild Card (6.2% to make the playoffs). Baseball Prospectus has the Red Sox at 1.3% to win the division and 9.5% to win the Wild Card (10.9% to make the playoffs). That's the best odds of any third place team to make the playoffs and with the Red Sox pitching staff, home park, and memories of 2004, you can never count them out.

And since the goal is just to make the playoffs, the further away the Red Sox are from the Yankees, the better it is for their playoff odds. This is especially important for a veteran team like the Yankees who may want to rest guys like Derek Jeter down the stretch, ease guys like Andy Pettitte and A-Rod back into the lineup, line up a postseason rotation, and limit the amount of regular season innings for Phil Hughes. Clinching a playoff spot early can do that for them.

On the other hand, it seems that the Red Sox, at 6.5 back, are firmly in the Yankees' rear view mirror (PECOTA has them at only 4.6% chance to make the playoffs). With only 6 games remaining against the Yankees, the Red Sox would have to win at least 5 out of 6 and hope for some help from the other teams playing the Yankees. While of course a possibility, it doesn't seem like the team that they should worry about right now. Their bigger concern now may be clinching home-field advantage for the ALDS and ALCS. And although the Yankees have the third best road record in baseball (just behind Tampa and San Diego), they have excelled at home the past two seasons in both the regular season and the playoffs (this year they are best in the AL at home). Right now, the Rays seem like the greatest threat to the Yankees repeat of the American League pennant (though Texas or Minnesota would be really tough too), and an extra home game in a possible ALCS couldn't hurt (especially since anyone the Yankees will play in the playoffs will have a really good home record).

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Ivan Nova Reportedly Under Investigation by Major League Baseball

Put this under the "really, really bad timing" department. According to the New York Post's George A. King III (and Baseball America's Jim Callis), Major League Baseball is currently investigating Yankees pitchers Ivan Nova and Wilkin de la Rosa for "allegedly injecting each other with B-12 shots last season when they were teammates in Trenton."

Yankees' rookie Nova is supposedly under investigation by MLB (WSJ)

Uh oh. As we know from The Roger Clemens Situation, B12 is not always as innocuous as it sounds. To wit, King continues: "MLB wants to make sure that the shots were indeed B-12."

Oy. Nova recently moved into the Yankees starting rotation to take the place of the ineffective (and currently below replacement level) Javier Vazquez and has been somewhat of a big surprise for the Yankees in 2010. It would be quite a shame if it were revealed that he had some, er, "assistance" with that rise in prospect status. If Major League Baseball finds that the shots are anything unkosher, the Yankees could lose Nova (and de la Rosa) for 50 games for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

In the shorter term, this would be devastating for a Yankees' team that needs to find some consistent starting pitching to hold off the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. While those two teams battle each other in St. Pete tonight, the Yankees will be at the mercy of the MLB investigators to find out what happens to Nova. Here's hoping that they really just had vitamin deficiencies. Right now all they seem to have is some report that they injected each other with what appeared to be a vitamin. But in this age of performance enhancing drugs, anytime there are needles (and an MLB investigation) involved, you have to be curious.

There's no need to jump to conclusions yet, but in a season where the Yankees don't need to do any more worrying about their starting staff, this is yet another thing for the Yankees and their fans to worry about.

Adding Another to the Team (and a few links)

We're not waiting until September 1st to expand our rosters here at NYaT. I'm happy to announce our newest permanent blogger (and our new Official Mets Blogger), Elissa Glucksman. E recently guest blogged about 5 reasons the Mets could make the playoffs in 2011 and before that had previewed Citi Field 2.0 for NYaT. Elissa even participated in a triathlon with former Mets manager, Bobby Valentine, as a partner. We're excited to see what else she has in store for us (there is some talk of Sarah and Elissa doing a blog series of sports from the feminine point of view). Please join me in welcoming Elissa to the NYaT team.

Omar Minaya will feel the wrath of new blogger, Elissa (NYDN)

Now for a few links:

• Someone else is keeping track of that whole CC Sabathia opt-out (as well as Joe Girardi's contract situation): Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues. Moshe Mandel of TYU tells us why Girardi isn't going anyplace.
• SI's Joe Posnanski nails arm injuries and pitching prospects in this great blog post. Then The Common Man at The Platoon Advantage takes down Rob Dibble.
• NoMass scores another great interview (this time with Yankees' SVP, Mark Newman) and talks about the Yankees farm system. Then Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus writes "just add [Brett Marshall] to the long list of Yankee pitching prospects who have taken a step in the right direction." I like the sound of that.
• Last week Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus handicapped the AL MVP race and the NL MVP race. It will be a close one.
• Rebecca of This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes on Kerry Wood. Sam Borden of LoHud on Tiger Woods and Derek Jeter. Aaron Gleeman of HardballTalk on the Yankees' "phantom disabled list". FanGraphs' Dave Cameron on the Minnesota Twins. Flip Flop Fly Ball on the many Yankees logos. Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues on HOPE week.
• The Big Lead on why Tony LaRussa is an idiot. Wall Street Journal's Brian Costa on why Ivan (Nova) is anything but terrible. ESPN's Jayson Stark with everything you would want to know about Roy Oswalt's night in left field.
• Eastbound and Down Season 2 (I can't wait)

Javier Vazquez is officially below replacement level according to FanGraphs (H/T Jay). More later.

UConn football preview: time for Randy Edsall to shine

Many people know UConn as a basketball school, but did you know they play football too?  Well, they do, and the Huskies are primed for a big season.

Jordan Todman in action.  Photo credit here.

A few minutes ago, ESPN.com ran several UConn football headlines on its front page.  Head coach Randy Edsall is front-and-center, as he should be.  The must-read item is this article discussing how unconventional -- yet refreshing and inspiring -- Edsall's path to success has been at UConn.  Couldn't agree more.  The man does everything right.  He sticks with his assistants.  He never says the wrong thing to the media.  He chairs the NCAA's Football Rules Committee.  He has persevered through tragedy.  He has increased the number of Huskies in the NFL from 1 to 13.  He has negotiated huge road games against teams like Notre Dame, Michigan, and Tennessee, all of which gets the UConn program onto the national stage.

Coach Randy Edsall.  Photo credit here.

Oh, and how Edsall has succeeded on the field at Connecticut.  He brought the team from Division I-AA to Division I-A, then into the Big East, then to a co-Big East championship....all in a span of eleven seasons.  He has put 13 players in the NFL, including 4 in the first two rounds in 2009.  He has produced a 3-1 record in bowl games, including a 20-7 win over South Carolina in 2009.  (He has done all this, by the way, while maintaining an impeccable public image.  He has kept himself and UConn completely scandal-free...unlike certain other college football coaches.)  Last, but certainly not least, he squashed Notre Dame in South Bend on national TV last year.

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Which 1995-2010 Yankees Pitcher Would You Start in Game 7?

It's the World Series, Game 7, season on the line. You have a chance of choosing any Yankee pitcher from 1995-2010 and only have his resume on the Yankees to choose from. You have some great names on there: Coney, Key, El Duque, The Rocket, Andy, CC, etc. But you need to throw one guy out there for one very important game. I've been debating this all morning at work and over Twitter, but now it's time to put it out there on the blog: who would you take? Here are the candidates:

Sabathia dominated the Angels in the ALCS (USA Today)

CC Sabathia (B-R link)

It's a small sample size, but this may be my pick. Very few (if any) Yankee pitchers dominated a whole playoffs over three series. Overall he was 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 32 and walking only 9. He dominated in the ALDS and ALCS and was very good in the World Series (though his record was 0-1). Sabathia's ALCS is what really puts him on this list as he absolutely dominated the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA, striking out 12, limiting the Angels to a .436 OPS against and going 8 innings in both his outings. Remember, though, that Sabathia came into last season with a reputation as a guy who couldn't cut it in October and while we're only going on their New York totals, this weighs quite heavily in a lot of people's minds. CC's total Win Probability Added (WPA) was 0.967 for the 2009 playoffs while FanGraphs clocks his FIP at 3.59 and his xFIP at 3.36.

From Twitter: @NYYEric: depends on if we get to choose the player as he was in that timeframe but I go with CC. (Andy close second)

Andy Pettitte (B-R link)

Certainly the sentimental pick of many (he was the runaway winner in my unofficial Twitter poll), but I'm wondering if he truly is the best pick. He's won the most series clinching games in history, but he also had his share of duds. In 11 ALDS series, Pettitte is 5-3 in 79.2 innings with a 3.73 ERA. In 7 ALCS series, he's 7-1 in 72.1 innings with a 3.73 ERA (and a 2001 ALCS MVP award). In 8 World Series, he's 5-4 in 77.2 innings with a 4.06 ERA. It all seems good, but there were some starts in there where he didn't even give his team a chance. His 1996 ALCS Game 5 and World Series Game 5 were great starts, but his World Series Game 2 in which he lasted only 2.1 innings and gave up 7 runs was not. In 1998, Pettitte was grat in the ALDS and World Series but he got bombed for 4 home runs in Game 3 of the ALCS. 1999 he breezed through the ALDS and ALCS but once again got bombed by Atlanta in the World Series. The problem was that when Pettitte really struggled (1997 ALDS, 2001 World Series, 2002 ALDS), the Yankees lost and he didn't even give them a chance to win. So would you like to have someone who keeps you in every game or one who looks like A.J. Burnett? Tough call. But overall, Pettitte was dominant with a 2.253 WPA in his first run of postseason stint in Pinstripes and a 0.833 WPA after he's returned from Houston. His 2009 postseason run where he won every single clinching game may have sealed this one for Pettitte in many people's minds.

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Questioning Jagr on Yahoo's Rangers Mount Puckmore

It's been a long, long time since I blogged about the New York Rangers. A few thoughts: I've generally liked their off-season moves (especially the fact they haven't felt tempted to go out and sign another casual top clogging player). I still don't understand why Marc Staal hasn't signed yet (and it seems he can't figure that out either and is still waiting for an offer sheet). I also can't get why Glen Sather still has a job but when the other Madison Square Garden team owned by James Dolan has a schoolgirl-like flirtation with Isiah Thomas, it makes a little more sense why Sather still is able to have his job--though it doesn't make any Ranger fan more appreciative.

Rod Gilbert was an odd person to leave off the list (SI)

Today, though, I don't want to talk about the Rangers off-season or preview their upcoming season, I want to talk about the Rangers Mount Puckmore, a series on Yahoo!'s Puck Daddy that has been coming up with the four most important people in each NHL organization. Jim Schmiedeberg of Blueshirt Banter compiled the list for the Rangers edition, and while he probably is much more knowledgeable about the Rangers, I have to quibble with one selection. While Brian Leetch and Mark Messier are no brainers, and I can understand the selection of Frank Boucher, I'm not a fan of selecting Jamomir Jagr to the New York Rangers Mount Puckmore over guys like Rod Gilbert, Jean Ratelle, Eddie Giacomin, Mike Richter, Adam Graves or Brad Park.

First of all, Jagr played all of 3 1/2 seasons in New York, and put up gaudy numbers in a time when every hockey player should have been putting up large totals thanks to the new rules after the NHL lockout. Rod Gilbert played parts of 18 seasons with the Rangers and would seem like a much more deserving choice. Here's one knock against Gilbert: he never scored 100 points. Guess what? No one did back then! According to Hockey-Reference's Play Index, from 1963-1977 only 20 guys scored 100 points. In the three full years that Jagr was on the Rangers, 11 other guys did it. And if one season of high marks gets you in, then Adam Graves 50 goal season at the beginning of the neutral zone trap phase should have gotten him.

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5 reasons the Mets could make the playoffs in 2011

As you might have noticed, the New York Sports and Television blog has been a little light in its coverage of The Other New York Baseball Team.  With that in mind, I'd like to re-introduce you to one of our guest bloggers, Elissa Glucksman.  E is very passionate about her Mets, even if they do not give her much to be passionate about.  Below you will find her analysis of one sportswriter's list of reasons why the Metsies could be a contenda next year.

Image courtesy of the NY Post

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For Mets fans, this season has been a bit of a roller coaster. Pre-all-star break the Amazins were over-performing (to say the least). At the break the Mets were only 4 games out of first in the NL East. This surprising start made many Mets fans give the organization, its GM, and its manager the benefit of the doubt. Who cares that the Mets’ rotation had swiss cheese-like holes? It didn’t matter that Minaya’s main free-agent acquisition (Jason Bay) was underperforming and Carlos Beltran was home mending his infamously repaired knee. The Mets were playing some decent baseball on the backs of Rod Barajas, Ike Davis, Angel Pagan, and R.A. Dickey. But as the saying goes, all good things must come to an end. After the All-Star break the Mets didn’t just come back down to earth, they crashed so hard they made a crater the size of Citi Field.

Now is the time of year most Mets fans are used to. The season is starting to really gear up for the Yankees and the Rays, but for the Metropolitans and their fans it’s time to pretend the baseball season ends at the end of August and start thinking about next year. And what do we have to look forward to? Matt Meyers of ESPN The Magazine took a relatively optimistic look at my Mets and came up with a list of five reasons the Mets could make the playoffs in 2011. After reading this list I couldn’t decide if the article made me more or less depressed.

Here are Meyers’s 5 paraphrased reasons, followed by my translations:

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Stretch Drive Previews: The AL East

As we get closer to September--and therefore closer to the playoffs--we'll start off a series of previews of each division and the races going on in them. I'll then have 5 key questions to pose to our panel where they'll give their "expert" opinions on what will occur from here on out. Let's start off our preview with the American League East, a division which will most probably get the American League's Wild Card as well (Chicago is the closest team and they're 9.5 back with two AL East teams in front of them):

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	GBsum	Strk	R	RA	Rdiff	pythWL	Home	Road	1Run	last10	last20	last30
1	TBR	77	48	.616	---		W 3	5.0	3.8	1.2	78-47	39-24	38-24	22-22	8-2	11-9	20-10
2	NYY	77	48	.616	---		L 1	5.3	4.0	1.3	78-47	42-22	35-26	13-12	6-4	11-9	16-14
3	BOS	72	54	.571	5.5	11.0	W 3	5.1	4.6	0.5	69-57	39-25	33-29	21-20	6-4	12-8	18-12
4	TOR	65	59	.524	11.5	29.0	W 1	4.7	4.3	0.4	67-57	32-24	33-35	17-24	5-5	11-9	17-13
5	BAL	44	81	.352	33.0	115.0	L 1	3.7	5.2	-1.5	44-81	27-38	17-43	22-18	4-6	12-8	14-16
	Avg	67	58	.536				4.8	4.4		67-57	35-26	31-31	19-19	5-4	11-8	17-13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2010.

Tampa Bay Rays (56.1% chance at winning the division, 37.8% chance at winning the Wild Card, 93.9% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com)

The Rays are expected to win 99 games according to coolstandings.com which is the highest mark in the American League. Their slightly higher ranking is due to the fact they have an easier schedule down the stretch. They do have quite a few games left against the tough AL East, but outside of the division, they play 5 more against the Angels (who have all but given up), 3 against the Mariners, and 3 against the Royals to close out the season. The Rays overall have the 24th best batting average in the AL (.251), the 7th best wOBA (.331), the 4th lowest FIP (4.05), and the 6th best ERA (3.60). The hitting and pitching strengths are spread out: Carl Crawford leads in average and runs, Evan Longoria in RBI and OPS and Carlos Pena in HR, while David Price leads in Wins and ERA, James Shields in K, and Jeff Niemann in WHIP. Jay says "Tampa Bay will go as far as their starting pitching will take them. They are a major World Series threat."

The Rays biggest asset is their depth. When they had injuries this year, they were able to call up guys like Reid Birgnac, Matt Joyce, and Jeremy Hellickson and not missed a beat. And they still have a ton of firepower down on the farm with top prospect Desmond Jennings and, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, an extremely hard-throwing lefty Jake McGee who could be this season's David Price. And while their bullpen has been their bugaboo in the past, Joaquin Benoit (12.24 K/9, 7.00 K/BB, 1.36 ERA, 22 holds) and Rafael Soriano (38 saves, 1.79 ERA, 4.40 K/BB) have been rock-solid at the back-end. The Rays 3.57 bullpen FIP is the best mark in the league according to FanGraphs (and their 3.29 ERA is 2nd). The biggest question surrounding the Rays are if they'll take on the contract of the extra bat they seem to need to push them over the top (especially if that hitter's name is Manny Ramirez). The Rays and Yankees will determine who wins a tiebreaker with 7 games in the middle of September and a vengeful Manny may be just the thing the Rays lineup needs to put it over the top. And after Deadspin leaked some financial data that Tampa would not want their fans to know, the gesture of spending money at this juncture to put them over the top would be a smart thing to do.

New York Yankees (42.1 % chance at division, 49.4% chance at wild card, 91.5% chance at playoffs)

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Trivia Tuesday: MLB "Lifers"

When Lance Berkman was traded to the Yankees at the end of July, he lost his status as a Major League Baseball "lifer". A lifer--as defined by ESPN--is a player (pitcher or position player) who has played with only one team for at least ten years. In this case team is defined as Major League team--this person could have very well have come up in another team's minor leagues. There are currently 11 MLB lifers: can you name them?

Bonus question: On the flip side of the loyalty scale, there are 9 active Major Leaguers who have player for 4 or more franchises and compiled at least 300 home runs. Can you name them?

Answer in the comments below. I'll reveal the correct answer later. Good luck!

View From The Seats

Here in the bleachers, Section 237, for the Seattle Mariners vs. the New York Yankees on a hot August Saturday in the Bronx.

We had 4 passes for the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar before the game. Although I'm not sure it's worth the price or a place I'd like to sit for a whole game, it was a good experience pre-game and the food, while still expensive, was surprisingly good (more on the sports bar in a later post).

As far as the game goes, it's been extended batting practice so far as the Mariners and Yankees are tied at 4 through 3 full innings.

After the leadoff batter reached safely here in the 4th, Javier Vazquez has been pulled after an extremely ineffective outing. The Yankees may have to think about skipping Javy's next start after his dead arm and poor pitching. That's the report so far from the seats. 4-4 game with Chad Gaudin in to pitch.

-Andrew

Will CC Sabathia Opt Out After 2011?

On a slow Friday in New York, I was perusing the Yankees' page of Cot's Baseball Contracts, a wonderful resource for player-by-player and team-by-team contract information. When I landed on their second-highest paid player, CC Sabathia, I was sort of surprised to see this bullet point:

It's possible CC may not wear Pinstripes after 2011 (ESPN)

• Sabathia may opt of of deal after 2011 season. 

I wasn't shocked because I didn't know about it, but, frankly, because I don't remember it being mentioned since Sabathia signed his big contract back in December of 2008. In fact, I forgot how important that opt-out clause was to Sabathia's contract being signed. According to Tim Brown and Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports (whose article was titled "Opt-out clause key to Sabathia going to Yankees"):

The deal, according to a source close to negotiations, gives Sabathia the right to opt out of the contract after the first three years, by which time he will have been paid $69 million. Sabathia appreciated the clause because it satisfied concerns he had about living in New York and the impact it might have on his wife and three children.

He will make his opt-out decision after the 2011 season with four years and $92 million remaining on the deal, at which time he could renegotiate, leave or stay.

Yahoo! Sports wasn't the only one; New York Daily News and almost every other news outlet mentioned the opt-out if not in the title of their article, then at least in the body. Since then, not much has been said about this opt-out clause. I searched on Google News for any mention of "Sabathia" and "opt-out" in the past year and there were 21 results, more than half of which seem to be about either A.J. Burnett or Alex Rodriguez opting out. So this is not a much-discussed topic to say the least. But should it be? Should we just assume that the hefty lefty and his family are happy in New York and they are going to stay? Or will CC Sabathia be hitting the open market at the end of next season at the age of 31?

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View From The Seats: Staten Island Yankees

My first trip to Staten Island in a very long time to see the Staten Island Yankees take on the Brooklyn Cyclones. This is quite an experience out here with all-you-can-eat deals and a really small, nice stadium. It's also been a beautiful night for baseball.

The Baby Bombers currently trail 6-5 despite 5 errors committed by the Cyclones. Recently called up Gary Sanchez is 1-4 (he should be 2-4 but got "Jim Joyce'd" at first base).

If anyone hasn't been out to this Stadium, you should make a trip out here. It's an easy (and free) trip from Manhattan on the Staten Island Ferry, and my group ticket (need a group of 10 for a group--we have 17) includes all-you-can-eat, unlimited soda, a free hat, a great seat, and a message on the board for a measly $18 a ticket. And the view of Manhattan here is great. Plus you have a great chance to see future Yankees like Sanchez or Cito Culver. Great experience so far here in Staten Island.

-Andrew

Do You Believe in the Yankees Bullpen?

May was not a good month for the Yankee bullpen. After a so-so April, the Yankee bullpen got beat up in May to the tune of a 4.94 ERA and a WHIP of 1.417. The strikeouts were low (7.4 per 9 but up from 6.8 per 9 in April) for a group of power arms and worse than that, they had given up 11 HR in 78.1 innings. Those 78.1 innings were a lot for a group that was struggling and one problem seem to beget the other. Opposing teams had a .758 OPS against vs. the Yankees relief corps and things looked bleak with guys like Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson struggling to set up Mariano Rivera.

A sunset picture I took from Yankee Stadium last night

Then things changed in June. The Yankees bullpen ERA dropped to 3.25 for the month, the team only gave up 4 HR and K/9 ticked up to 8.1. They hit that same K/9 mark in July, and dropped their baserunners that month to the point the opposing team's OBP was .291. And August has been something of a renaissance for this newly formed group as they have gone 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA, a 1.036 WHIP and 3 HR against. Through July 2nd, the Yankees bullpen had allowed 30% of inherited baserunners to score; from July 3rd to August 11th, only 11%. The opposing line so far in August is .176/.275/.267.

And they haven't done this against slouch offenses, either, holding their own against Toronto (lead AL in HR), Boston (.806 OPS leads the AL), at Texas (where one of the top offenses in the league feasts on the hot air), and against Kansas City and Texas (2nd and 3rd in the AL in average, respectively). So what changed? What clicked for this team? Why were they able to go through their entire bullpen tomorrow and get valuable outs from each member (while I was in the stands). Let's go through the bullpen:

Mariano Rivera. It all starts and ends with Mo (mostly ends). In mid-May, Rivera hit his once-a-year rough patch, blowing a game against Minnesota on May 16th, losing a game against Boston on May 18th (on two unearned runs), and barely squeaking by with a save after an earned run on May 21st. Those were three consecutive outings and saw his ERA (which before that had been 0.00) rise to 2.02. Since that date (and even including his loss in Texas), Rivera is 3-1 with 16 saves to one blown (they won that 7/4 game vs. Toronto despite that), sports a 0.58 ERA (and zero unearned runs as well) and has 26 K to 4 BB. In that time he's given up no home runs and held opposing batters to an embarrassing .150/.195/.178 line. The team is 29-2 in his appearances in that time-frame.Although Rivera's FIP (2.39) and xFIP (3.30) are much better than his ERA (1.02), he's always outperformed those numbers.

David Robertson.

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View From the Seats

Yankees vs. Tigers from Terrace section 305, row 2 on what turned into a beautiful night in the Bronx. The picture shows the sun setting behind the Stadium.

The Yankees are up 3-1 behind back-to-back (and belly-to-belly) by Mark Teixiera and Robinson Cano. Preceding that was a hit-by-pitch to Brett Gardner (who slid hard--but cleanly--into second), resulting, inexplicably, in both benches being warned.

Miguel Cabrera continued to rake, hitting another long home run against Dustin Moseley. We're through 2 full here in the Bronx, 3-1 Yanks.

-Andrew

Ask a Doctor: Could Lou Gehrig Have Not Had His Own Disease?

Yesterday the New York Times' Alan Schwarz (who has seemed to champion the brain damage and sports cause for the Times) wrote an article with the title that basically read "Did Lou Gehrig Have Lou Gehrig's Disease" (I'm paraphrasing the title since it has since been changed to "Study Says Brain Trauma Can Mimic A.L.S." after some initial controversy). Some followed up on the research and some blasted the way it was presented.

The man who bears the name of ALS (NPR)

I felt it was best to go to our resident blog expert and neurologist, Cynthia Brown, MD. Cynthia was formerly a practicing Neurologist for over 20 years at Fallon Clinic as well as President of the Medical Staff at St. Vincent Hospital at Worcester Medical Center. She now works for an EBSCO subsidiary, DynaMed. Here's what she had to say on the very interesting and controversial topic:
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Today's article in the Journal of Neuropathology and Experimental Neurology summarizes previously published literature linking amytrophic lateral sclerosis to traumatic brain injury and discusses the autopsy findings of 3 athletes who appear to have had a history of repeated head trauma and developed findings similar to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease, motor neuron disease). The news story that Lou Gehrig may not have had Lou Gehrig's disease has sparked much interest.

Motor neuron disease most probably will eventually turn out to be several different diseases. There are circumstances where ALS has a genetic basis, and there are other cases, such as that of Stephen Hawking, that have a very slow progression which is different from the more rapid typical course.

The new article refers to the previously reported unusually high rate of ALS among Italian professional soccer players, and the association of increased incidence of ALS in Canadian and National Football league players. Other reported associations with ALS are mentioned and include pesticides, cigarette smoking, and other toxic exposures.

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Hartford Whalers Reunion & Fan Fest 2010

Final game = Whalers 2, Lightning 1

As I've discussed previously on this blog, the Hartford Whalers hold a very special place in my heart.  Although I grew up as a Devils fan in New Jersey, I went to tons of Whalers games with my grandfather (a longtime season ticket holder), so I certainly felt like a part of the Whalers family.  And here's the kicker -- the team's gritty captain, Kevin Dineen, has Crohn's Disease just like me!  Plus, he used to emcee the charity golf tournament that my grandparents helped run in Simsbury each year to raise money for the CCFA.  Needless to say, I was devastated when he and the rest of the Whalers left for North Carolina in 1997.

I wasn't alone in my heartbreak.  After living in Hartford and West Hartford for the last four years, I have found that people are still obsessed with The Whale around here.  Whenever my Brass Bonanza ringtone goes off, I'll notice a knowing smile from someone around me.  Whenever I wear my Dineen jersey or any of my various t-shirts and hoodies featuring one of the best logos ever, I inevitably get high-fives and a "Let's Go Whale!" cheer from passersby.  Since I'm used to my spoiled peers (a.k.a. Yankees, Giants, Devils, and Nets fans), it is incredibly inspiring to see such passion from such a small market, especially about a now-defunct team that won only 1 NHL division title in 27 years!

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G-I-D-P Spells Frustration Over Last Night's Ending

At times, I feel like I'm spoiled as a Yankee fan. I don't expect the team to go 162-0, but in the past two years I've seen them launch some improbably comebacks and made opposing bullpens look like mush so often that I feel like they are never out of a game. So when last night the Yankees were down 2-0 or 3-0 in a game, I felt like a comeback was not only imminent, but necessary. The team's bats had failed recently and this was about the time they turned it on and stole a game. And while things were derailed in the 8th inning when Marcus Thames grounded out, I felt that the 9th inning was going to provide promise as well.

GIDP is becoming all too Jeterian at times (MSNBC)

But then came "fun with numbers" as Derek Jeter--El Capitan, Captain Clutch, etc--rapped into a 6-4-3 double play. Game over.

I'm not naive to suggest that the Yankees should come back there. Or that Derek Jeter is the clutchiest clutch hitter that ever lived, but the Yankees could have not swung the bat and won that game. Nor was this all Jeter's fault as Jorge Posada (and to a lesser extent Marcus Thames and Curtis Granderson) were guilty of the same Jeterian mistakes as the Captain himself. And I'm not unappreciative of who Derek Jeter is or what he's done for this team, this franchise and this sport*, but there were some serious problems that I had with yesterday's game**.

*Side Note: Joe Posanski had a great debate today about Derek Jeter vs. Mariano Rivera on who was more important to the Yankees. I need to get into greater detail in a later post about this, but the answer for me is Mariano Rivera and the reason is because of an Intro to Econ concept called opportunity cost. With the Yankees financial might, they could always sign another shortstop such as Alex Rodriguez  to take over for Derek Jeter and the result would have been pretty damn good if not better. But the opportunity cost of Mariano Rivera is unthinkable (and Rivera is a "rate environment extremophile" according to Tommy Bennett of Baseball Prospectus so you gotta love that). JoePo touched on this but even the best closers in the game never reached the level of consistency or dominance that Mo did. Money can't buy that. That isn't to say that Derek Jeter wasn't more valuable to the Yankees dynasty (he definitely was and any WAR or Win Shares) calculation will back that up, but despite the fact today's closers are vastly overrated, the answer has to go to Jeter in the value column. Though I may have mixed up the two. Undetermined.

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Trivia Tuesday: 2,500 Hit Club

There are currently no active Major Leaguers who have 3,000 hits, but there are 7 active players (loosely defined as anyone not retired--ie, not Ken Griffey, Jr.) who have more than 2,500 hits. Of course, Derek Jeter is the next in line to hit the 3,000 mark with 2,885 hits (his GIDP to end last night's game notwithstanding), but who are the other 6 active players with more than 2,500 hits?

Bonus Question: Derek Jeter is currently 7th on the active list in batting average at .315, who are the 6 players ahead of him?

Answer in the comments below and I'll reveal the correct answers later. Good luck!

Update 12:15 PM : Second Bonus: 10 active players have hit over .300 for their careers but below Jeter's .315 mark. Can you name those 10?

Quick Hits: FanGraphs Event, Yankee Bullpen, Mets, Cervelli, CC, Granderson, and Other Baseball Thoughts

It's time to play some catch-up on the blog. A little of a lot here on a Monday. Some quick hits for you:

- The FanGraphs Live event last Saturday in Manhattan was awesome. I thoroughly enjoyed the conference and the panels were all extremely engaging. Amanda Rykoff has a great review of the whole event at The OCD Chick, and Dave Cameron and Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs both have great recaps. A few observations/conclusions from the panel:

The FanGraphs live event was awesome

• I may be a nerd (Amanda did label this a "mini-dorkapalooza")
• Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues dislikes Francisco Cervelli as much on Twitter as he does in real life (and Jay Jaffe of Pinstriped Bible dishes out some dislike as well)
• Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues argues that the strength of the AL East pushes each team to get better
• Reporting on Twitter discourages analysis and makes it more about a personal brand
• The Wall Street Journal has a great formula for their sports section: smart, funny and analytical
• The game story is slowly leaving the papers (and with it, the need for the box score as well as Tim Kurkjian wrote on ESPN)
• Bloomberg Sports has an awesome fantasy sports tool that can even show video of Jeff Francouer drawing multiple walks
• Statistics are now for a wider audience than just nerds (though Tim Marchman of SI looks at the problems with defensive stats)
• The biggest myth in sports (according to one panelists) is that the pitcher stopping his windup mid-motion has led to a lot of injuries 
• I now own a FanGraphs t-shirt
• "Accept randomness"
• It was nice to finally meet in person people like Ben and Amanda who were, until now, just Twitter avatars and bylines on blog posts. This type of thing should occur more often.

- Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked today (re: the Yankees bullpen): "Do you believe in this group?" At one point the answer would most certainly have been no, but Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan and Kerry Wood have joined together to form a nice "Bridge to Mariano". The Yankees bullpen in August is 1-1 (the one loss came from Mariano Rivera) with a 1.02 ERA in 35.1 innings and has a WHIP of 0.991. Since July 2nd, they've only allowed 16% of inherited runners to score (which was a bugaboo for a while with this team as they were at 30% at that point). With Andy Pettitte coming back (forcing Dustin Moseley back to the bullpen), and Alfredo Aceves and Damaso Marte on the mend, this is looking like a pretty good group. And despite his latest glitch, Mariano Rivera is pretty great/probably the greatest ever. The Yankees are 62-0 when leading after 8.

-CC Sabathia is getting less strikeouts as David Golebiewski of FanGraphs pointed out today and Dave Cameron pointed out last week. Here's my theory: from 2005 to 2010, Sabathia's thrown more innings than anyone in baseball. Maybe he's resting his arm a bit knowing he has plenty of years left to pitch in baseball. While strikeouts are the surest way to prevent outs, groundouts are usually a good way as well and they usually require less pitches. That's probably a good thing for someone who will have over 20,000 pitches in a 6-year span. Like Girardi told Chad Jennings of LoHud: "we don't want to wear the big guy down."

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A Quick Look Back At Some Preseason MLB Predictions

Back in April we all made our picks for the divisions and the major awards on the blog. Some were great and make us look downright prophetic. Some were awful and made us look downright pathetic. Let's take a look at the good and bad of our MLB preseason predictions:

Our predictions came on opening night but Yanks, Rays, and Sox are still close

AL East
Hits: Jay picked the Yankees to win the division and the Rays to win the Wild Card while Ari, Ben, and I all took the Yankees to win the division and the Red Sox as the Wild Card. Saying "While the Yankees could be undone by injuries, the Red Sox injury risks...are equally as present. What remains to be seen if Jonathan Papelbon has any ill effects from his implosion in last year's deciding game of the ALDS. The Fenway Faithful may not be too forgiving if he blows a game or two..." Writing that the Yankee Stadium crowd would not be too kind to Javy Vaquez if he starts the season off slowly.

Misses: I think we all underestimated Toronto. Jay saying "Joba Chamberlain will excel in his return to the bullpen."  Ben saying "Mark Teixeira will win the Triple Crown." Mostly all of our AL MVP predictions (Ari and Jay picked A-Rod, Ben picked Mark Teixeira, and Sarah picked Kevin Youkilis). My pick of Brian Matusz as Rookie of the Year

Too Close to Call: Ben saying "Tim Wakefield will start at least 20 games for the Red Sox." (he has 16 but is currently in the 'pen). My MVP prediction for Evan Longoria (still has a shot). Ari taking CC Sabathia and Sarah taking Jon Lester as Cy Young picks.

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