Finding The Silver Lining With Ortiz

When a star fades, fans always try to find the silver lining. Sometimes journalists do too. That has been occurring with David Ortiz. Today, from the Providence Journal (H/T MLBTradeRumors):

With a single up the middle in the bottom of the sixth inning in Boston’s 6-3 loss to Texas on Sunday, Ortiz extended his hitting streak to six games. He is 7-for-25 (.280) with two doubles, a home run, 4 RBI and 3 runs scored over his last six games.

But...

Ortiz still has the worst batting average in the Red Sox lineup, but he has upped his average to .197 with this six-game hitting streak.

I'm not declaring that Ortiz is out of his slump or that he's done. But just for comparison's sake, Ortiz's projected stats from the season is: .197 with 6 HRs, 67 RBIs, and 55 Runs and about 675 plate appearances. According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, in the past 30 years, here are the 22 players with HR<=10, RBI<=70, BA<=.220, R<=60 and at least 500 plate appearances (which all would be improvements on Oritz's current pace and far less plate appearances):

  Cnt Player              **BA**  HR RBI  R   PA Year Age Tm  Lg  G   AB  H  2B 3B  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS  OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+---------+--+---+---+---+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 Jim Sundberg         .199    6  36  45 540 1975  24 TEX AL 155 472  94  9  0  51   0  77   4  13   0  16   3  1  .283  .256  .539 *2     
    2 Brooks Robinson      .201    6  53  50 539 1975  38 BAL AL 144 482  97 15  1  44  10  33   1   8   4   6   0  0  .267  .274  .541 *5     
    3 Brady Anderson       .202    8  45  50 501 2001  37 BAL AL 131 430  87 12  3  60   4  77   8   2   1   3  12  4  .311  .300  .611 *97/8D 
    4 Ed Brinkman          .203    6  49  42 571 1972  30 DET AL 156 516 105 19  1  38   9  51   3   7   7  14   0  0  .259  .279  .538 *6     
    5 Dick Schofield       .206    4  36  52 502 1992  29 TOT ML 143 423  87 18  2  61   4  82   5  10   3  11  11  4  .311  .286  .597 *6     
    6 Bobby Tolan          .206    9  51  42 501 1973  27 CIN NL 129 457  94 14  2  27   2  68   3   7   7  11  15 10  .251  .304  .555 *8*9   
    7 Billy Ripken         .207    2  34  52 559 1988  23 BAL AL 150 512 106 18  1  33   0  63   5   6   3  14   8  2  .260  .258  .518 *4/5   
    8 Glenn Hoffman        .209    7  49  53 513 1982  23 BOS AL 150 469  98 23  2  30   5  69   5   5   4  15   0  4  .262  .311  .573 *6     
    9 Nick Punto           .210    1  25  53 536 2007  29 MIN AL 150 472  99 18  4  55   1  90   0   6   3   7  16  6  .291  .271  .562 *564   
   10 Alfredo Griffin      .210    1  35  38 502 1990  32 LAD NL 141 461  97 11  3  29  11  65   2   6   4   5   6  3  .258  .254  .512 *6     
   11 Roger Metzger        .210    0  29  37 543 1976  28 HOU NL 152 481 101 13  8  52  10  63   0   8   2  11   1  1  .286  .270  .556 *6/4   
   12 Freddie Patek        .212    0  32  59 577 1972  27 KCR AL 136 518 110 25  4  47   4  64   3   6   3   9  33  7  .280  .276  .556 *6     
   13 Tim Johnson          .213    0  32  39 510 1973  23 MIL AL 136 465  99 10  2  29   2  93   1  11   4  10   6  3  .259  .243  .502 *6     
   14 Desi Relaford        .215    5  46  55 502 2000  26 TOT NL 128 410  88 14  3  75   7  71  12   3   2  10  13  0  .351  .300  .651 *6     
   15 Dave Chalk           .217    0  33  39 512 1976  25 CAL AL 142 438  95 14  1  49   3  62  10  12   3  16   0  0  .308  .253  .561 *65    
   16 Jack Hannahan        .218    9  47  48 501 2008  28 OAK AL 143 436  95 27  0  55   4 131   2   3   5   5   2  0  .305  .342  .647 *53/D  
   17 Rick Auerbach        .218    2  30  50 605 1972  22 MIL AL 153 554 121 16  3  43   5  62   2   5   1  14  24  8  .277  .269  .546 *6     
   18 Mark Belanger        .218    1  36  53 527 1970  26 BAL AL 145 459 100  6  5  52   3  65   5   9   2   4  13  2  .303  .259  .562 *6     
   19 Steve Jeltz          .219    0  36  44 510 1986  27 PHI NL 145 439  96 11  4  65   9  97   1   3   2   9   6  3  .320  .262  .582 *6     
   20 Clint Barmes         .220    7  56  57 535 2006  27 COL NL 131 478 105 26  4  22   6  72   9  19   7   2   5  4  .264  .335  .599 *6/4   
   21 Tom Veryzer          .220    0  34  41 501 1979  26 CLE AL 149 449  99  9  3  34   0  54   4  10   4  10   2  5  .279  .254  .533 *6     
   22 Mike Andrews         .220    7  50  58 602 1972  28 CHW AL 148 505 111 18  0  70   3  78   2  18   7   4   2  2  .313  .297  .610 *4/3   


If he gets 600 plate appearances, as you can see, the list shrinks down to two. So Big Papi will really need to pick it up to lift himself out of this historically bad group.

And, as MLBTradeRumors points out, he'll definitely need to:

Remember that when it comes to Ortiz, the Red Sox, due to the enormous contract Ortiz carries, will likely be like Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber. If the numbers point to a one in a million chance of an Ortiz recovery, GM Theo Epstein may take a look at the $12.5MM owed to Ortiz in 2009, the $12.5MM in 2010, and say, "So you're saying there's a chance? Yeah!"