Looking Back At MLB Predictions At The 1/3 Mark

We've just passed the 1/3 mark on the season so let's go back over my preseason predictions and see how I did:

 

-AL East - Very, very close. Instead of Red Sox just over Yankees, right now it's the Yankees just over the Red Sox (half game lead). I said the key was the health of A-Rod, Jeter and Posada without good backups and it's seemed to be the case. Once all three were healthy, this team has rolled. The Red Sox I was right on as well: "The one biggest fear for Sox fans has to be the fact they are one bat short in the middle of the order". Well, I didn't think that one bat short would actually be Big Papi's but they will need to find someone to replace (or at least augment) him at some point this season. Their pitching depth should help with that. And how about this for the Rays "If you look at some teams that have gone to the World Series in recent years with so-so bullpens (or, rather, bullpens that have greatly overachieved)--Cards, Tigers, Astros, ChiSox, etc.--they have not been able to duplicate their success the next year" or this about the Jays "Doc Halladay is a beast at starting pitcher, but after him, what big-time players do you have?". I was wrong about Snider as the ROY candidate (it was actually Lind). And the Orioles have been the Orioles. Overall grade on the predictions so far - A

 

-AL Central - When I wrote that I thought the Tigers were going to win the AL Central, I was told by a friend that I was crazy. Well, I wasn't. Their pitching was one starter and one bullpen arm short but they filled the starter arm with Rick Porcello...but have yet to find the arm for the 'pen. The Indians at #2 was too high, but I think that, in the end, they'll all be a lot closer. Still, the Indians biggest role for the rest of the season will be in the trade market with guys like Mark DeRosa, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and (*gulp*) Carl Pavano all coveted assets. But I thought that Miguel Cabrera was the one true difference-maker and he has proven it leading his Tigers to the best record, despite the best effort of the M&M boys in Minnesota, Zack Grienke on the Royals, and a resurgent Jermaine Dye on the ChiSox. I still think the Tigers will win this division, but I don't see the Twins or the White Sox giving it to them without a fight. Overall grade on the predictions so far - B+

 

-AL West - The AL West is one of the hardest divisions to figure out. The Angels are on the cusp, but if they don't get better work from the bullpen, they're not going anyplace. This division and the AL Central are bad divisions as I predicted. For Texas I said: "With Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton in the middle of the lineup, they should be able to produce the offense. The question will be what the score is when they finally do..." Well the pitching has held up so far and those three have been helped me a ridiculous first third of the season from Marlon Byrd. So while I was wrong so far to predict them third, once that Arlington weather heats up and that pitching is exposed, I don't think I'll be so far off. Though, if the Angels continue to struggle, they may win the division out of default. Seattle will be unloading this season, trying to get something for Erik Bedard and Adrian Beltre (among others). And the A's are an interesting group. They have good young talent and some moveable veterans. How long do they hold on to guys like Orlando Cabrera (who would look good on the Red Sox) or Matt Holliday (who would look good on a lot of contenders, but especially the Mets)? If they dump soon, it's between the Rangers and Angels. Overall grade on the predictions so far - B-

 

-NL East - The one division I was a perfect 5/5 on. I even predicted Mets leading the Wild Card which they are doing now. Let's go one by one through my thoughts

"If the Braves pick up a bat (like Matt Holiday or Magglio Ordonez) at the trade deadline, they vault to #1 on the list. Right now they're too thin in the bullpen, back-end of the rotation and especially in the lineup to put them in the top 2, but they're awfully close." - Well, they picked up McLouth, but I think they can use another bat and some more in the bullpen. But they are dangerous if Tommy Hanson turns out to be a factor for them this year with their tough starting rotation lead by Jair Jurrjens, Javy Vazquez and Derek Lowe.

"The Marlins could surprise everyone and win this thing, but I also think they'll need to make a move at the trade deadline." Well, it's looking like that's the case. This team could use a few more veterans among the kids. But still my early pick for NL East 2010

"The Nats are horrible." - Definitely wasn't wrong there. They are awful. They can be thankful that they are going to get Stephen Strasburg (though not excited about the price tag). And maybe Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann can team up to be a good 1-2 punch for this team (and maybe John Lannan who just threw a CG almost-SHO against the Mets and has a 3.68 ERA as #3). But their bullpen is awful and their lineup outside of Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn is non-existent so they have a lot of work to do. I think they can fetch a lot for Dunn this season and should trade him as soon as they get a good enough offer (like a young pitcher from the Mets or Red Sox or maybe Marlins).

"The biggest problem with the Mets is they haven't really changed their positional core from the past two year's collapses. Reyes, Castillo, Delgado, Beltran, and Wright are all still there." Well Wright and Beltran have teamed up with Johan Santana to carry this team, but, in retrospect, they should have traded Reyes or found a better backup for Delgado, each of whom could be out for a long time. This is a team running on fumes with Livan Hernandez and Gary Sheffield. They NEED to make a deal soon for another starter and another bat. Adam Dunn or Mark DeRosa would look real good here because they could play 1B until Delgado comes back and then shift to the OF.

"The key for Philly will be starting pitching to get them back to the World Series" - I have to admit it: I was dead wrong about Raul Ibanez. I thought this was a bad signing, but at least for the first 1/3 of the first year (so that's 1/3 of 1/3, or 1/9 of the contract), he's been MVP-quality. In fact, in terms of wins over replacement (WAR) and, therefore, value, according to FanGraphs he's the best player in the majors so far. So I take my A+ prediction and make it an A because of that stupidity on my part. The key, though, as I said will be starting pitching so the Phillies would be well off to get someone in there soon for Brett Myers who was shaky at best when he was in there this season. Overall grade on the predictions so far - A

 

-NL Central - Here were my Brewers pros: "They made the playoffs last year so they know how to get there, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are big-time middle-of-the-order bats, and Gallardo should be a big part of this team." I should have stopped there. So far, they've exceeded expectations and dominated their division. I wonder if the lack of starting pitching in the wake of the departures of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets will come back to haunt them down the road (I'm pretty sure it will), but this team's offense has been really good, augmented by the resurgence of Mike Cameron, who ranks 6th in the NL in WAR (FanGraphs), only behind Raul Ibanez, Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, and Albert Pujols. Speaking of Albert, he's almost put his team back into the race single-handedly. Picked by many to finish near-last in the league, they have a pitching staff that works thanks to Dave Duncan and a lineup that has found a way to score runs mostly thanks to Pujols. I think the Reds are better than they've shown so far and I KNOW the Cubs are. The key for the Cubs is getting Aramis Ramirez healthy. The trade of Mark DeRosa ended up being costly for them because they could have used him at 3rd base in Ramirez's absence. Pittsburgh and Houston are the last two and I think they'll stay there. And both would be smart to continue unloading veterans: Jack Wilson, LaRoche and maybe Matt Capps for Pittsburgh and Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee and maybe Jose Valverde for Houston. This division, however, is still wide-open to win. Overall grade on the predictions so far - C+

 

-NL West - Well I was right with the Dodgers being first, but I guess all the credit can't go to Manny Ramirez. Joe Torre used to do this time and time again with the Yankees when injuries would hurt the team, but hopefully he gets his due now that he's doing it again in Los Angeles. "The Giants were tempting to pick in the top 2. They have a really, really good rotation. They just have no hitting. None." I couldn't have been more right there. This pitching staff has been great, but the hitting is awful with the least amount of runs scored in the NL and the second-lowest total in baseball behind the Mariners. They NEED to acquire a bat. Adam Dunn wouldn't look bad here and neither would Matt Holliday or Carlos Lee or really any other slugger on the market. The Diamondbacks have been a team in their recent past who have been able to win in the regular season despite razor thin positive run differentials due to good bullpens. This year, the bullpen isn't as good. San Diego has been a bit of a surprise though their -50 run differential (third worst in baseball) shows that they are a really flawed team, but they have won games with Adrian Gonzalez leading the way on offense, Jake Peavy leading the way with pitching and David Eckstein leading the way with "intangibles" (or whatever BS Baseball Tonight spits forth about him). The Rockies should start dumping parts now. They have some quality players and have little to no hope at the playoffs so they should start looking towards 2010. Clint Barmes, Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe, Huston Street and others could be valuable chips. Dodgers will probably run away with this thing, but the Giants and Diamondbacks, with the right moves, could be players in the Wild Card race. Overall grade on the predictions so far - B

 

MVP Predictions: MannyBeingManny and Miguel Cabrera. Well Manny was suspended for PEDs, but Cabrera may be able to take home the title. Early NL Candidates: Raul Ibanez, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Johan Santana, and Tim Lincecum. Early AL Candidates: Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Jason Bay, Justin Morneau, Mark Teixeira, Zack Grienke and Roy Halladay.

 

Cy Young Predictions: Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. Either one could win this thing in the end, especially with their media oversaturation in New York. If the season ended today, Santana should take home the award in the NL. Early NL Candidates: Santana, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Jair Jurrjens, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Javy Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Jonathan Broxton and Francisco Rodriguez. Early AL Candidates: Sabathia, Zack Grienke, Edwin Jackson, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Mark Buehrle, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez and Frank Francisco.