Fact: A.J. Burnett hit two of his own teammates during a recent simulated game.
Fact: A.J. Burnett's stats in August and September = 12 starts, 2-10, 6.61 ERA, 76 hits in 65.1 IP, 28 walks, 7 HBP, 53 K, opponents are hitting .300/.380/.494.
Fact: The Yankees, who must win Games 4, 5, 6 if they want any chance of avoiding Cliff Lee in Game 7 and winning this series, insist on pitching A.J. Burnett in a practically must-win Game 4.
Knowing what we know about A.J. Burnett, is anyone else reminded of this Family Guy clip?
Look, we all know what's coming. If C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte were rusty from the ALDS, Burnett is going to be two-to-three times rustier. His confidence is shot because he hasn't pitched effectively in months. And the Yankees, who are down 2-1 but have been outplayed badly enough (aside from two innings in game 1) that it feels like 3-0, have their backs against the wall. So why is Burnett pitching this game? Why does the season practically rest in Burnett's shaky hands?? Don't push the AJ button, Joe, resist the temptation! Don't even look at the button -- there's still time to change your mind!!!
Andrew doesn't seem to think that this is an elimination game. He also points to Texas's starter, Tommy Hunter, and says that if the Yankees can't score runs off him, they don't deserve to win the series. As for Burnett, Andrew points out that the last time the Yankees had a "must-win" playoff game was Game 2 of the 2009 World Series, and Burnett was lights out. (For the record, John Harper of the NY Daily News agrees with Andrew and Joe's decision to start Burnett tonight.)
Needless to say, I disagree with most of this. Game 2 of the 2009 World Series was a long time ago, and Burnett has done a lot of sucking since then. And this is, for all intents and purposes, a must-win game. If the Yankees drop Game 4, to win the ALCS they'll have to reel off three straight wins (two on the road) including defeating Cliff Lee in Game 7. The chances of that happening are very, very, very slim.
The Yankees might very well score some runs off Tommy Hunter. And that would be great. They'll need that if they're going to win tonight. But the Yankees, who have trailed every single second of this series (except in the 8th and 9th innings of Game 1), cannot afford to let A.J. Burnett dig a big hole and force an already-struggling lineup to come from behind all night. The Yankees simply cannot allow Burnett to pitch as terribly as we all expect him to. It's too risky and the Yankees have come too far in 2010 to let the fate of the season rest in Burnett's shaky hands.
In my opinion, how can any Yankees fan not be pressing the panic button right now? Cliff Lee absolutely dominated, emasculated, and embarrassed the Yankees in the Bronx last night. He owns the Yankees in the postseason, and if you think the Bombers have any shot of beating him in Game 7 in Texas, you're nuts.
I just can't see AJ shaking the rust, ignoring the pressure, and reversing his trend of crappy pitching over the last 2.5 months by winning a virtually must-win game. Anyone else feeling better about this? Please let us know, in the comments, what you think about Joe Girardi's decision to stick with his embattled pitcher in Game 4.
Posts
People love most of what Joe Torre did as Yankee manager because he was usually calm under pressure and never let his team panic--so what does it tell your team if you remove Burnett from the rotation now? This would be the equivalent to dropping A-Rod to 8th--a move all of us would agree was a completely ridiculous panic move. The Yankees can't pitch Phil Hughes on short rest and pushing Burnett back a day to a less favorable pitching match-up is equally undesirable.
ReplyDeleteI know it's hard to comprehend (and trust me, it's not easy for me either), but leaving Burnett in there is going to give the Yankees the best chance to win the series (HardballTalk does a good job of articulating it here: http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/10/19/why-the-yankees-have-to-go-with-a-j-burnett-tonight/).
The real issue, though, as Jay sort of pointed out in the offense minus Cano(Mark Teixeira: 0 for 11; Alex Rodriguez: 2 for 13; Derek Jeter: 3 for 13; Nick Swisher: 1 for 11; Jorge Posada: 2 for 10). And, as much as one may try, changing the starting pitcher doesn't help the bats.
Oh...and BTW, Melky Cabrera was just RELEASED by the Braves
ReplyDeleteHere is what loyal reader Glenn Prives has to say:
ReplyDeleteI'm with Andrew on this. You start AJ, not CC. Let's say you do start CC and you win tonight. Well you have to start AJ tomorrow and if you lose that game, you're down 3-2 and back to square one. You have to start AJ in a key game whether it's today or tomorrow, so why put off the inevitable?
And Moseley should not be starting over AJ. While Moseley was great last time out, for the most part, he's been a "keep you in the game" kind of the pitcher, not a "shut em down" pitcher. You need the latter tonight because the old men can't seem to make contact and you can't count on them to do it tonight. Despite AJ's horrendous year, he's been a "shut em down" pitcher before, he's even done it this year, and so he's still a lot more likely to do it tonight then Moseley.
I do not agree with Glenn. If we're talking about the inevitable AJ loss, then why not try to gain momentum (and stop Texas's confidence from snowballing) by winning tonight? If you start AJ, and he loses tonight like we expect him to, we're down 3-1. This is worse than starting CC tonight (a probable win) because an AJ loss in Game 5 only puts the team down 3-2. That hurts a lot less than having Texas win three straight to go up 3-1.
And by having CC start tonight(or Moseley, or anyone else who stands a better chance of winning) you are more likely to win and therefore, as Ari pointed out earlier, stop the enormous wave of Texas momentum.
The Yanks are reeling and the Rangers are flying high after Lee's dominant performance in game 3. We need to stop that, preferably with our stopper (CC) or even with Moseley.
AJ is just going to dig our hole deeper. I'm convinced that he is going to crap the bed tonight.
Here's the deal...the upside for AJ Burnett is far greater than the upside for Dustin Moseley. There are two AJ Burnetts - the one we saw for most of the second half of the season and the one who makes hitters look foolish. However, unlike the regular season, the Yankees don't need to let him pitch through his troubles and take one for the team. If he goes out and gets in trouble early on, you can still pull him for Moseley. However, if AJ Burnett goes out there and looks to have lights out stuff in the first inning, you're in good shape.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Andrew - Girardi does not want to go into panic mode. If anything, his choice to stick with Burnett shows that he has great confidence in his team and Burnett himself. If the manager stays calm and confident, so will his players. He did not make the decision to start AJ by himself, as I'm sure Brian Cashman and the rest of the Yankee top brass had some say. And believe it or not, in my discussions with coworkers today, all of the AJ doubters seem to have developed some faith in him.
If he hits a batter or two - good for him, it'll show some fight.
Here's my question - does Posada start or Cervelli? And do you think Girardi might do something to shake up the lineup?
And Andrew is right - this is NOT an elimination game. Are the Yankees in good shape right now? Certainly not. But should they be panicking? No. They still have two games at home and a rested Mariano Rivera.
And why can't the Yankees beat Cliff Lee in Texas?
Nothing is certain in this sport. There's no certainty that AJ Burnett will bomb nor is there any certainty that Cliff Lee would win a game 7 in Texas.
Good question on the catching situation, Ben. I go with Cervelli. Burnett is brutal at holding runners on and while Cervelli isn't Johnny Bench back there, at least he'll give them a fighting chance against Texas' running game. And any advantage you can give Burnett is key-- plus his level of comfort with Posada seems to be quite low.
ReplyDeleteNow here's a question for you: do you have more faith in the Yankees winning tonight with Burnett on the mound or in a potential Game 7 with Lee on the other side?
I see what you guys are saying. And you're not wrong, you're toeing the company line, and if you believe in what you're saying, then all the power to you.
ReplyDeleteI just think there is a fine line -- or in this case, a very clear line -- between showing "confidence in your guys" and ignoring the blatantly obvious truth that A.J. Burnett sucks.
I think it's pure naivete to think that Burnett has any chance of winning this game on his own accord. To Andrew's question, I think there is a greater chance of the Yankees winning tonight because A.J. can always be yanked and replaced with Moseley or Joba or someone else. And it's also possible that the Yankees' bats can light up Tommy Hunter. It's much, much less likely that the Yankees beat Cliff Lee on the road in Texas.
Andrew and Ben -- this is not, by definition, an elimination game. But losing tonight forces them to win 3 straight, including 2 on the road, with a Game 7 rematch vs. Cliff Lee in Texas. What are the chances of that occurring, especially after Texas gained all that momentum by winning Games 2, 3, and 4?
Re: Cervelli and Posada. It's time for Cervelli to get a chance. They need to improve defense behind the plate. Not just in throwing out runners, but also preventing passed balls and wild pitches. Pitchers (ESPECIALLY AJ with his breaking stuff) need to feel confident that their catcher is going to block pitches in the dirt. I don't think anyone on that stuff trusts Jorge right now in that regard.
Plus, there may be lingering problems between AJ and Jorge. Cervelli may inspire more trust and confidence in Burnett.
One final thought -- like I hinted at and Andrew said, the Yankees' offense needs to do its part. Tex is still hitless, Jeter has looked lost at the plate, and Rodriguez needs to be a force in the cleanup spot. Something from the DH spot would be great too. The Yankees need to hit like the Yankees if they're going to win this series.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFrom Tom Verducci (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/10/19/five.cuts/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin)
ReplyDelete-- Burnett hasn't pitched in 17 days, hasn't won a game in 49 days and hasn't beaten a winning team in 147 days
--New York is 2-10 in games Burnett has pitched since August.
-- This season in four starts with six or more days of rest, Burnett was 0-2 with a 9.25 ERA.
-- Burnett's first-inning ERA this year is 7.09.
Still think starting A.J. Burnett is the right move here? I remain unconvinced. For the record, although Verducci says starting Burnett is the Yankees' best option, he also suggests that Girardi should have Dustin Moseley warm up alongside Burnett before the game starts. But if you're going to do that, why don't you just start Moseley altogether? If he pitches poorly, then there's always AJ in long relief (who was on the ALDS roster presumably for that exact reason).
If I'm Girardi, I'm going with the guy who's least likely to give up runs and put the Yankees' offense in another hole. Burnett seems the *most* likely to give up runs, doesn't he??
AJ is throwing a no-hitter tonight. With 4 wild pitches, and 5 walks.
ReplyDeletebook it.
LoHud Yankee Blog reports that Francisco Cervelli is catching tonight. That should make for one very unhappy Jorge Posada. While Cervelli isn't great at throwing out runners, he certainly does a better job of blocking the plate.
ReplyDeleteAnd you can't warm Moseley up with Burnett. That's basically a vote of no confidence.
Fair enough, Ari. If Burnett wants to go all Nuke LaLoosh on us, it's fine by me :-)
ReplyDeleteI agree with this post. This is BRUTAL, such a ridiculous move pitching this guy I might not watch the first 4 innings. It's really like starting Kei Igawa, he's been that bad.
ReplyDeleteEven Yanks fan would have to think the party is over, they need to win 3 straight to avoid Lee. I think even if yanks lose tonight, they force game 7 and get dominated yet again by Mr. Lee.
Ok...here's my question: What would constitute a good start by Burnett tonight (ie, if he gave that, you would be happy)?
ReplyDeleteAll things considered? 6 innings, 4 hits, 1 walk, 1 run. That would be good in my book, considering AJ's recent history.
ReplyDeleteAJ certainly puts runners on base and doesn't hold them on well. It could be a cardiac performance, yet a winning one. 6+ innings, 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 runs. Not good numbers for a start by any means and and he'd certainly be in trouble every single inning but I'd take it. Even if he gave up 3 runs I'd take it.
ReplyDeleteI'll go with 6 innings and 3 runs. I could care less about what he does in between. Maybe he'll plunk Josh Hamilton in the ribs...
ReplyDelete