On Jeter and Posada

Many would agree that the two hardest positions on the diamond to play are catcher or shortstop (or at least, that's where the greatest dearth of talent is). So it's not surprising that the Yankees success over the past decade plus can be attributed to having players in those two positions have excelled over time (at least offensively). But will they both make the Hall of Fame?

When I wrote about it back in January, but my feeling was that Derek Jeter was a Hall of Famer right now but Posada may need a few more seasons to state his case. First on Jeter. This guy is moving up the record books: he's 66th right now in runs scored, but he's 4th among active players and ranks 4th among Yankee players. Joe DiMaggio and Yogi Berra never scored 1,500. Let's say he get 84 runs the rest of the season (a little high, but let's play around with it), he would pass 14 Hall of Famers (probably 15 once Jeff Bagwell is eligible) along the way and would finish the season in the top 50 all time. And if he gets 150 more hits (what he's projected to do at the current pace), he'll pass 15 Hall of Famers there too and be in the top 50 all time.

And it's not like Jeter is an old player hanging around for records and hurting the team with his bat. the Yankees have won 16 or 20 and, as Joel Sherman writes, you can't attribute it all to A-Rod: "In the past 20 games Derek Jeter has hit .400 with a .474 on-base percentage and a .576 slugging percentage. He had three more hits and a walk Tuesday night in a 12-3 rout of the Rangers. He led off the first inning with a hit for the eighth time in nine games. He has shown a greater willingness to pull the ball, steal a base and take a pitch." And the scary part is that he's "only" 34 (soon to be 35). The hit machine he is, if he can put up 1,000 more hits after this year, he'd finish 4th on the all-time list looking only up at Hank Aaron, Ty Cobb and Pete Rose. I have a feeling, though, if he hung it up after this year was up, he'd still be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Posada is a harder candidacy. I wrote that "he's in the top 30 of active players in OBP, BBs, Adjusted Batting Runs, and Batting Wins. For a catcher, that's pretty amazing." And it is true...it really is amazing considering that catchers can't play every day and run up the statistics of other players. Also, they're more prone to injury from their position behind the plate. Adding to Posada's trouble was that he didn't even get 400 PAs until he was 26 and has had 500 ABs only 3 times. But Posada is having his best year ever so far. Even with his time on the disabled list, he is on pace to set career highs in homeruns, RBIs, SLG % and OPS.

So I was surprised when Rob Neyer quickly dismissed Jorge as a potential Hall of Fame candidate this week. Although he declared him the best catcher of the '00s, he says that not only Posada won't, but he "shouldn't".

Well Rob got some push back on that. Jonah Keri wrote that Hip Hip Jorge belongs in the Hall (probably) as one of the greatest hitting catchers of all time and someone who didn't kill his team on defense (a la Ted Simmons or Mike Piazza). I agree somewhat with Shysterball's Craig Calcaterra, writing for NBC Sports: "In any event, I'm leaning more to Jonah's side of things here, though I don't agree that Posada would go in if he retired tomorrow. His case is really a Carlton Fisk-style case, and my sense was that people didn't truly appreciate Fisk as a Hall of Famer until the longevity portion of the argument really kicked in during his years in Chicago. Posada has no MVP awards like Rodriguez and was never the hitter Piazza was, but he has been a clearly above-average, and oftentimes excellent catcher who is aging well."

The reason I only agree somewhat with Calcaterra is that I don't think Jorge will play much, if all, past 40 and that Jorge should never stick around as long as Fisk who really regressed his last three years. And while Jorge may not be able to squat behind the plate for as many games as he has in the past, I think it would not be out of the realm of reason to have him and Derek Jeter split most of the DH duties next season and have Jorge stick around for a few more years. But I think Jorge's bat is far from done as he's shown so far this year. And I think in the end, both Jeter and Jorge will be in the Hall of Fame.