Showing posts with label trades. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trades. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

A Standing O:...and the Colorado Rocky Mountain High

It's been a while since we got some knowledge from Alex O but he's back today with a post about the New York Knicks, Gallo, and, well, John Denver as well. So whether you're Italian, American, or from the Jersey Shore, you'll love our next Standing O:
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“And the Colorado Rocky mountain high!” John Denver (Great lyrics)

Some have missed Gallo in a Knickerbockers uniform (MSNBC)
Here are some thoughts and links about the Knicks we traded for Melo, Burps (billups) etc. Gallinari, Chandler, Felton, Mozgov, even the corpse formerly known as Eddy Curry is gone but not forgotten. Knickerblogger had a good piece about saying good bye to Gallo. Worth checking out even if it is a bit much. Better yet was the comment I pasted below, from an Italian guy who watched Gallo’s Dad and D’Antoni play back in the day:
1. kaine says:
March 3, 2011 at 2:06 pm

You may not know, but there’s a weeping nation out there.
There’s a generation of italian like me that fell in love with the nba in the 80′, thanks to the men that played then. before the dunks and the no look passes, it was the great personalities. Kareem.Magic.Bird.Jordan.Doc.Moses.Akeem. Ewing. the bad boys.
and when we were in awe at watching the gods, we followed a great italian team, lead by one of the greatest mind that we witnessed on a field, moustache men D’antoni.
I can assure you that he was that good, a stern general well different from the laid back coach of today.
In that team played Gallinari sr. A bruce bowen-type player, I had the luck to wath them play live and I can’t recall to saw him ever try a shot to the rim. defense was his thing, nothing more.
In that glorious days, our collective daydream was to see one italian player to finally succed on an nba field. to show that we are not bound to scramble for a ball with our feet in the mud, but that also the Italians can fly
Last year I finally had the occasion to visit the big apple, and obviously I dragged my wife at the Garden. I was graced with a (rare) great win over the 76ers, and Gallo (along with Douglas) was the leading force to the win.
Seeing him live to blossom into a king for Knicks brought to me all the lost memories of my generation ; the dream of us playground player to become an Nba star was now real. the quest had been fulfilled.
The icing on the cake was that happened in New York, the city that we consider part of ourselves. it’s not the global icon, it’s just the perfect blend of European and American flavours that we love.
I can assure you that Gallo felt the same: he truly truly loves new york.
Now the song has ended. the knicks dismissed Gallo like some high school sweetheart traded for the new flashy hot girl. just another victim of the summer of LeBetaDog.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Two Yankee Prospect Busts From the Last Regime

A few weeks back Ben wrote a guest post on LoHud about Yankee prospects and how Brian Cashman made the right decision on so many of them with when to keep them and when to trade them away. I have always thought this was a combination of dumb luck (how many times did guys almost get traded but by sheer luck didn't) and good internal prospect evaluation. Cashman is hoping to use that combination to make the right decisions with all the young pitchers and catchers the Yankees are trying to develop in their minor league system.
Source: Baseball Almanac

But before Brian Cashman arrived on the scene, the Yankees had a few guys who were flat out busts. There are famous ones like Brien Taylor, but there are a ton of other guys who just never made the cut after the Yankees hype machine touted them as top prospects. Two of those guys made Steven Goldman's Baseball Prospectus post of the worst prospect busts in baseball. Let's take a look at what he had to say about Hensley "Bam-Bam" Meulens and Ruben Rivera:
Hensley Meulens, 3B, Yankees
Free Agent, 1985
Now the Giants hitting coach, “Bam-Bam” was once going to be a star in the Big Apple. the right-handed-hitting third baseman had tremendous power at a very young age, hitting approximately .300/.377/.558 with 28 home runs in the Carolina League at age 20, but he had problems making contact and couldn’t field. Despite these flaws, the Yankees pushed him hard and fast, not really noticing that he didn’t hit or field as they pushed him up the ladder. Finally, after a failed major-league audition in 1989, he got back on the prospect track at Triple-A, hitting .285/.376/.510 with 26 home runs as a 23-year-old while primarily playing left field. This was the first positive thing he had done in some time, and it earned him both a recall (successful) and a full season in the majors in 1991 (not). Back in Columbus in 1992, the now-25-year-old hit .275/.352/.481 with 26 home runs, but also struck out 168 times. The Yankees were largely done with him, and he had just 44 major-league plate appearances remaining. He finished his career at .220/.288/.353 in 182 games. For more, see my profile of Meulens from last fall.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

A Standing O: Star-Melo and the Trade Deadline

It's been a fun season in Knicksland but last night was something extra special. Last night was the Knicks fans' consolation for not being chosen by LeBron in The Decision. When he saw SportsCenter last night, he probably wondered how nice it would have been to be King in New York City at MSG. If anything, the Carmelo trade was a nice reminder of how exciting Knicks basketball can be with an opening montage that had to make everyone from the Tri-State Area excited about the Knickerbockers again. One guy certainly excited? Alex O and he tells us why in his latest Standing O:
The Star-Melo shined brightly at MSG last night
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This is a great post showing what Melo means to the Knicks offense. Now the Knicks have 2 players who can command a double team. Not many squads have that. Bill Simmons made a great point--- the Knicks now have 2 of the 10 guys that started in the All-Star game. It will take a few weeks to find out how this team can gel. We did not see Anthony Carter, or Shelden Williams, or Balkman or Brewer. It will be interesting to see who gets time with the new squad. One thing that we saw last night was how good Toney Douglas can be. Playing tough D and shooting the lights out, Douglas is showing what he can do when he is healthy and given some time. Hopefully seeing more of him will be the new normal. Clearly defense and rebounding will continue to be issues with this team.

I am not 100%, but I think LaLa was wearing a puffy shirt at the game last night. It was great to get a feel for the excitement in the garden last night. The highlight of that was when LALA was asked what their 3 year old son said when he was told Daddy was traded to the Knicks: “we’re going home!”…………

AWESOME!

Monday, January 24, 2011

Hot Stove Coal: Would You Trade Robinson Cano for King Felix?

Felix Hernandez for Robinson Cano and others? This is just a hypothetical, but if Felix Hernandez was available, would you, as a Yankee fan, trade Robinson Cano in a package for him? That was the debate my dad and I just had and I figured I'd open it up to blog discussion.
Should the Yanks give up Cano for King Felix & his Cy? (Seattle Times)

Cano had his best season in 2010 as he vied for the American League MVP award and established himself as one of the top players in baseball and with Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia, among the top echelon of second baseman in the Major Leagues. He backed up that offense with very good defense and has seemed to really find his own as the #5 hitter in the lineup and as a good teammate in the clubhouse. He hit .319/.381/.534 last season with 29 HR and 109 RBIs and put up a career high 6.4 fWAR.

Felix Hernandez is a unique power pitcher with durability. Young and already incredibly accomplished with a Cy Young (and a second place finish) and to his name, Hernandez is one of the top pitchers in baseball. Besides maybe the Phillies, there is no rotation in baseball where King Felix would not join and be the ace. Over the past two seasons he is 32-17 with a 2.38 ERA, with 8 complete games, 34 starts each season, and an average of 244 innings and 224 strikeouts per season and a 3.18 SO/BB ratio. He has led the league in hits per 9 innings each of the past two seasons. He's put up a total of 13.0 fWAR over the past two seasons.

So that sets up the scenario: would you trade Cano in a package for King Felix? It would probably take Cano plus a few other prospects to get a deal done and all signs point to the fact that Hernandez isn't available, but would you trade the Ribbies from Robby for the Ks from the King? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below?

If you say yes, what would be the maximum package you would be OK with? Would Cano plus Jesus Montero be too much for you? Would Cano plus Montero plus a Killer B be too much? Or would you only do the deal if it was Cano straight up for King Felix? This is a hypothetical so give us your hypothetical in the comments.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Hot Stove Coal: Soria Would Make Sense...If He's Available

You can't always get what you want. Or so the song goes. The Yankees wanted starting pitching and wanted Cliff Lee. They looked at Zack Greinke. They'll always have an invitation for Andy Pettitte. Now that both of them have gone over to the National League, the free agent and trade market for starting pitchers is looking pretty bleak (at least if you're not a Fausto Carmona fan or a Carlos Zambrano fan as I'm not). The Yankees have money to burn and prospects to trade and, seemingly, nowhere to turn (well, besides Russell Nathan Coltrane Jeanson Martin or extending CC Sabathia). But after trading away Zack Greinke to prepare for the future, it would certainly behoove the Yankees to relook at acquiring Kansas City Royals closer Joakim Soria as a Plan B upgrade to the team.
Soria would look great in Pinstripes (SI)

It's great to want a guy like Felix Hernandez (I mean he is the King), but the reality is that he is (and should be) untouchable. And the Yankees have worked to improve their bullpen signing Pedro Feliciano but Cliff Corcoran of Pinstriped Bible (and others) are right to question how much of an improvement he truly will be. And while a guy like Rafael Soriano would be nice, it seems the Yankees (smartly) don't want to give up a first-round draft pick for him. But while middle relievers are making ridiculous amounts of money (again), the Yankees should look into acquiring Soria, one of the best relievers in baseball--and also someone who is signed to a team-friendly contract. According to Cot's Contracts, Soria will make $4 M in 2011 and has team options of $6 M in 2012, $8 M in 2013, and $8.75 M in 2013 (with a $0.75 M buyout each time and escalators and vesting built in).

This makes him cheap in today's market but the second-most expensive player behind Gil Meche on the Royals roster. And since Meche is untradeable, a team that has conceded they won't be able to compete for a few more years (hence the Greinke deal), Mike Axisa of MLBTradeRumors opined that maybe Soria would be the next out the door. While $4.75 M guaranteed may not be a big burden, a team going no place in 2011 seems to have less need for a ~2 fWAR closer than a team that is trying to win a World Series. That doesn't mean that the Royals will trade him, but they certainly should look into it if it can improve their team when they actually will have a chance to compete.

Now this isn't an unfamiliar target for the Yankees. In July the Yankees reportedly made "a big proposal" for Soria but were shot down. But the Yankees should probably try again. Although the effect of set-up men are quite overrated, Soria has been one of the best (if not the best) reliever over the past 4 seasons. Baseball-Reference lists him as having the highest WAR among relievers while FanGraphs puts him fourth (Mariano Rivera is first). And all this before he turns 27. And with Mariano Rivera signed for two more years, Soria would seem to be a ready-made replacement when Mo decides to finally hang it up*.

Monday, August 30, 2010

An Early Review of the Yankees 2010 Transactions

Yankees fans may have been spoiled by the 2009 season. After missing the 2008 playoffs, Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman went to work on building the 2009 team and added many important pieces including Sergio Mitre, Damaso Marte (a resigning), Andy Pettitte (ditto) Nick Swisher (for basically nothing), A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira. The mid-season trades worked out as well as they acquired Romulo Sanchez (a possible 2010 September call-up if healthy) for a spare part, Eric Hinske for more spare parts, Jerry Hairston, Jr. for yet more spare parts, and then picked up Chad Gaudin and Freddy Guzman during the waiver wire period. Every one of those players contributed in one way or another (except for Sanchez) to the 2009 World Series winning team and Brian Cashman came away looking like a genius who turned everything he touched into gold.
Thames has been Cashman's best off-season move to date (NYDN)

The Midas Touch didn't translate as well to 2010. The Yankees traded Brian Bruney for a Rule 5 draft pick (Jamie Hoffmann). They traded Phil Coke, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson. They signed Nick Johnson, traded and signed a ton of spare outfielders (Reid Gorecki, Greg Golson, Jason Pridie, Chad Huffman, etc.), traded for Javier Vazquez (and Boone Logan), signed Randy Winn, Royce Ring, Dustin Moseley, Marcus Thames, Chad Moeller, and Chan Ho Park. Since the season started they resigned Chad Gaudin, signed Eric Bruntlett and Chad Tracy (the latter which has been released), and traded for Austin Kearns, Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood.

While the 2010 mid-season moves have worked out to date, the off-season moves have not. Hoffmann lasted until March and then they returned him to the Dodgers (despite rumors he would be traded back, he's still with Los Angeles). Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson have all excelled for their new teams, and Granderson has been a huge disappointment for the Yankees*. Nick Johnson (injuries) and Javier Vazquez (ineffectiveness) both have been huge disasters in their return to the Yankees, and although Michael Dunn for Boone Logan is a wash and I don't think Melky Cabrera truly had a place on this team, Arodys Vizcaino (the prospect traded in the deal), dominated the Sally League going 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA, a WHIP under 1, and a SO/BB ratio of 7.33 before being promoted (and remains one of Atlanta's best prospects).

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The 3-Year Anniversary of the Kei Igawa Waiver Claim

Exactly 3 years ago to the day (and to the hour and minute), Kei Igawa was awarded to the San Diego Padres in a waiver claim. The Yankees had still not given up on Igawa at the time but this seemed like a great opportunity to dump a mistake and move on. Igawa had fallen out of favor in the Bronx after a 2-3 season with a 6.79 ERA in 12 appearances and looked like he would be a much better option in the National League. But the Yankees decided to keep him four days later and hope for the best in 2008. It ends up that was too much to hope for. From Buster Olney on that day:
Kei Igawa has been a huge failure for the Yankees (NYT)
The Yankees withdrew Kei Igawa from trade waivers before Tuesday's 2 p.m. ET deadline, ending conversations between the teams about a deal involving the left-handed pitcher

The Padres were awarded the waiver claim to Igawa on Friday, and at that point, there were three possible resolutions -- the Yankees could have simply handed the pitcher (and what is left of his five-year, $20 million contract) to the Padres; the Padres and Yankees could have worked out a trade, which they talked about in July and continued to discuss over the weekend; or the Yankees had the option of withdrawing Igawa from waivers. The Yankees chose the latter option, in the hopes of rebuilding Igawa for the 2008 season.
Sigh. Even MLBTradeRumors' Tim Dierkes was "disappointed" at the time. And he had the foresight to see the Yankees had no room for Igawa at the Major League level anyways. Igawa pitched a little better in his last two appearances of 2007 and got into two games in 2008, giving up 6 earned runs in the process. He was then sent to the minors where he's stayed to this date. Igawa is still signed through 2011, but even after being setting the record for most wins in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre history, Igawa was bumped from the Triple A rotation until recently.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Late to the Party: My Reaction on a Busy Trade Deadline for the Yankees

I know, I know, I'm late to the party. But after writing a trade deadline wishlist, I was shocked to see the Yankees check off quite a few boxes. While none of the moves guarantees the Yankees a chance at the playoffs (much less the pennant or the World Series), the deadline transactions shows that Brian Cashman is willing to shrewdly work the system towards the Yankees benefit in different ways than they truly have before. Let's take a look at the deadline moves and, putting them in the context of what they improved on, show that while it's not a clear home run for the Yankees, the July 31st moves were clearly a win.
Austin Kearns adds a solid OF bat (ESPN)

Austin Kearns: Probably my favorite move of all just because it fit a need perfectly. Kearns can play all three outfield positions and is extremely solid out there (with a plus arm). He's played most of his career in rightfield where he has a 58.0 UZR in over 6,000 innings, but moved back to leftfield in 2010 for the first time since 2003. After Kearns was a solid hitter from 2000-2007, his hitting dipped to below average numbers for 2008 and 2009 (with much lower BABIPs) and some felt he may be slowing down. But Kearns has been much better in 2010 (though some of that is buoyed by a great start to the season--.689 OPS since May 18th) and the Yankees were looking for a solid right-handed bat off their bench.

Kearns basically replaces Marcus Thames in the field (big win) and Curtis Granderson at bat against lefties (another big win). Kearns has a career OPS of .799 vs. lefties and his .353 wOBA and .383 OBP are exactly what the Yankees need from him when we consider Granderson has given them a .252 OBP, .538 OPS and a woeful .242 wOBA vs. southpaws. The smart move against lefties would be to play Brett Gardner in CF, Kearns in left, and DH Thames (and more on this below). The fear is that Kearns hot start masked a declining player who will flounder playing for his first big-market team--but I don't see that. For what the Yankees need Kearns for (platoon righty and bench bat), Kearns seems to make perfect sense). That he basically replaced Colin Curtis on the roster is a win (despite the fact I like Curtis). And all for the ole PTBNL or cash it was a shrewd and cheap move in what turned into a light outfield market.

Lance Berkman: The Big Puma is no longer and Fat Elvis seems to reign now--but regardless of which nickname you use, Berkman is a player who can certainly help the Yankees down the stretch. With Nick Johnson in a black hole of injury, the Yankees have been working through a platoon of Marcus Thames and Lance Berkman with a few games of Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada in their DH slot. For all intents and purposes, Berkman replaces Miranda on the roster. No matter how much I liked Miranda in the little time I saw of him, this can't be seen as anything but a win. Now it's never as clear cut as that, though. Lance Berkman is not the same guy who finished in the top-5 in MVP voting 4 different years. He's not even close to the player who put up a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) number of 7.5 in 2008 (only Albert Pujols, Chase Utley and David Wright were higher that year). But Berkman is still a premium hitter who knows how to get on base (career OBP of .409). The biggest problem for Berkman has that he's been bad vs. lefties this year (.188/.278/.281 w/ 1 HR) and was not as good away from Minute Maid Park (almost 200 points lower OPS). But the fact that he's going to have Marcus Thames as his right-handed DH caddy and that he's moving to a good hitters park in the Bronx should alleviate some of those concerns--as does his excellent 16.4% BB rate and his top-20 rank in pitcher per plate appearance (4.14) which makes him another patient, dangerous hitter to work through.

Friday, July 30, 2010

NYaT's Yankee Wishlist for the Trade Deadline

It's hard to "fix" a team that's on pace to win 104 regular season games, has the best record and run differential in baseball, and has won more games at home than Baltimore has in their entire season--but we're going to try. With the trade deadline fast approaching and Tampa Bay right on the Yankees' heels, I asked my fellow NYaT'ers what they think the Yankees need to do to put this group over the top. A compiled list of results below: 
Brett the Jet hitting #1 could help Yanks (Star-Ledger)

1. Move Brett Gardner to the leadoff spot. I'm not sure why this hasn't been done already, but I'm going to throw this out there as my personal "big fix" for the Yankees. The Yankees have argued that hitting him 9th gives them a "second leadoff hitter". Explain to me that logic? Why not just have him as your first leadoff hitter? Gardner is hitting .300/.397/.403 with a .372 wOBA and is on pace for almost 50 steals. Derek Jeter is having a down year, hitting .274/.338/.388 with a .324 wOBA which is just a tick under Juan Miranda's. And yet Jeter is unmovable from the leadoff spot while Gardner is left for the bottom 3rd of the lineup? The Yankees have been at a loss to find their #2 hitter since Nick Johnson went down with an injury early in the season, but I'm pretty sure their solution has just been hitting first. Imagine how much better the Yankees lineup would be with Gardner-Jeter-Tex-ARod-Cano-Posada-Swisher. Moving Swisher down creates more of a fluid lineup and will stretch their lineup even deeper. Gardner also gets on base vs. lefties (remember when the Yankees were worried about his right-handed caddy for Gardner instead of for Granderson) with a .391 OBP.

And here's another factor: Gardner leads the Major Leagues in pitchers per plate appearance at 4.61 (and by a lot). The last guy to even approach that number was Rickey Henderson's 4.55 in 1997. That many pitches makes the starter work harder and helps to tire him out faster. And, by the way, the last Yankee to have an OBP of at least .397 and steal 45 bases? Rickey Henderson in 1985. I'm not saying that Gardner is Rickey--but wouldn't you want to give him more plate appearances to find out?

Joba hasn't stepped up as the "Bridge to Mariano" (NYDN)
2. An upgrade in the bullpen. This is where my compadres and I differ in our opinions. I've seen the Yankees waste decent prospects on mediocre relievers just to theoretically get a small advantage before the trade deadline. I saw the Red Sox go out and get Eric Gagne in 2007. I'm just not a fan of the big fix reliever. I don't think they exist. You need a closer, and some solid guys in front and that's it, in my opinion. The Yankees could tweak that bullpen by calling back up Jonathan Albaladejo and Ivan Nova (and getting rid of dead weight guys like CHoP and Chad Gaudin). But others differed.

Paul said: "They don’t need to do much but the one issue is the bullpen. They need help, I just don’t know who. I would love Scott Downs but the Jays are asking too much. I don’t want them to trade any good prospects for middle relief so they should be careful. I also hope they don’t trade Joba."

Friday, July 9, 2010

Cliff Lee traded to the Yankees? Deal is "almost done"

ESPN New York, citing one of its ubiquitous "unnamed sources," has announced that a trade sending Cliff Lee to the Yankees is "just about done."  The Mariners look to acquire the Yankees' best catching prospect, 20-year-old Jesus Montero, whom the Yankees consider an excellent hitter but a subpar defensive catcher.  Montero, of course, could always bring his big bat to first base or third base on the Mariners, options that don't exist on a Yankees team that features Mark Teixeira at 1B and Alex Rodriguez at 3B.

The Yankees could absorb this loss with catching prospect Austin Romine, who they believe could become a .275 hitter with 20 HR power.  (Sound familiar?)

Personally, I have mixed feelings about this.  For the most part, I feel that the Yankees should not pull the trigger on this for two reasons.  First, they'll almost certainly have to give up Montero, who will almost certainly be a very successful major league hitter at whatever position he plays.  Ouch.  Why give up such a blue chip prospect when the Yankees are clearly the front runner to sign Lee when he becomes a free agent this offseason?  This is exactly why the Yankees resisted trading for Johan Santana and CC Sabathia at the trading deadline in previous seasons.

Second, the Yankees already have a deep starting pitching rotation.  I mean, they are sending three of their starters to the All-Star Game!  So common sense tells you that this team can win without adding Lee.  (Photo Credit: AP)

But after the jump, I'll tell you why 40% of my gut is telling me that the Yankees should trade for Lee.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

A Look Back at the Detroit Moves: A Trade I Would Support

Jason over at IIATMS had a very thought-provoking post up today about the player movement between the Yankees and the Tigers. Basically Jason wanted to pose the question that if the trade for Granderson, and signings of Thames and Damon were seen as one big trade, would we be in favor of it. Jason boils it down to Johnny Damon, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. He further breaks down the financial commitments:
Yankees 2010 committment: (via Cot’s)
  • Granderson: $5.5m [contract runs for three more years ($25.75m, all in, including a $2m buyout)]
  • Thames: $0.9m (minor league contract)
  • TOTAL: 6.4m
Detroit’s 2010 committment: (via Cot’s)
  • Damon: $8.0m
  • Coke: $0.4m
  • Austin Jackson: League Minimum ($0.4m)
  • ADD: Max Scherzer: $1.4m
  • ADD: Dan Schlereth: League Minimum ($0.4m)
  • LESS: Edwin Jackson: $4.2m
  • LESS: Ian Kennedy: ~$0.4m
  • TOTAL: $6.0m
Factoring in the second trade of Edwin Jackson and IPK for Scherzer and Schlereth, the Tigers were able to shed some 2010 payroll. Whether they are better for it or not remains to be seen, but in doing so, it puts the trade virtually neck and neck from a 2010 financial committment.  Of course, it doesn’t include the other moves the Yanks (or Detroit) made to fill in for the pieces traded, such as the Yanks signing Chan Ho Park.

So, knowing what we know now, on the eve of players reporting, are you still happy with this trade?
I've been mulling this one all day. While what Jason present is correct and overall really interesting, it sort of shortens the narrative for the way the Yankee fan should think about the trade (ie--the Edwin Jackson/Max Scherzer/Dan Schlereth part shouldn't factor into the Yankees thinking of their off-season). And for this purpose, I'm going to shorten the narrative as well: let's only look at 2010 commitments.  In factoring the true trade value for the Yankees side, what they "traded away" was ~$9.2 million (Damon+Coke+Jackson+Kennedy).

So $9.2 M minus $6.4 M (what they're committing to Granderson and Thames) equals $2.8 M. Would you trade Damon, Coke, Jackson, and Kennedy for Granderson, Thames, and $2.8 M?

Friday, February 5, 2010

Hot Stove Coal: Can You Win the World Series by Making a Big Mid-Season Trade?

The truth is that what a roster looks like today (or Opening Day) is not what it will look like once the playoffs start. Injuries occur, players are traded, released, picked up on waivers, called up from the minors, and free agents are signed. Nothing is set in stone. And big pieces can be had at the trade deadline. Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were traded last season and CC Sabathia the year before that. But none of those teams won the World Series. Yet many point to the big David Justice trade in 2000 the key piece for the Yankees win. Let's examine the teams that won the World Series since the strike and their biggest mid-season (April 1st to October 1st) deal to see if you should have your team mostly set now or you can hold out for that big piece...(thanks to Baseball-Reference for the help in this)
2009 New York Yankees
Biggest Deal: June 30, 2009 Traded Casey Erickson (minors) and Eric Fryer (minors) to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Eric Hinske.
Analysis: The Yankees also picked up guys like Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Chad Gaudin but the trade for Hinske was probably the most helpful. Many fans were upset the Yankees didn't go out and make a bigger splash for a guy like Roy Halladay, but it ended up that the pop from Hinske, versatility of Hairston and the solid starting pitching of Gaudin was all they needed to win it all.
Big scale: All small trades

2008 Philadelphia Phillies
Biggest Deal: July 17, 2008 Traded Adrian Cardenas (minors), Matt Spencer (minors) and Josh Outman to the Oakland Athletics. Received Joe Blanton.
Analysis: The Phillies also traded for Matt Stairs and Scott Eyre, but their biggest trade came before the season when they acquired Eric Bruntlett and Brad Lidge from the Astros. They would make a much bigger splash with Cliff Lee a year later but these smaller deals were the ones that actually propelled them to the championship. Blanton was solid down the stretch for the Phillies, going 4-0 with a 4.20 ERA.
Big scale: Medium trades

2007 Boston Red Sox
Biggest Deal: July 31, 2007 Traded Engel Beltre (minors), Kason Gabbard and David Murphy to the Texas Rangers. Received Eric Gagne and cash.
Analysis: Believe it or not, this was the Red Sox biggest deal and it failed miserably. Amazingly, many Yankees fans were angry with Brian Cashman that he didn't make this deal. It ended up working out the best for the Red Sox anyways as they took home the World Series trophy. The only other mid-season acquisition to play in the majors for the Sox was free agent signing Royce Clayton who had a grand total of 6 plate appearances.
Big scale: All small trades

Friday, January 29, 2010

The Yankees Top 10 Prospects of the Last Decade

Baseball America just came out with their top 10 prospects team-by-team from the last decade. It takes a look at where they ranked on Baseball America's yearly list and how they turned out. It also lists the best and worst draft pick by team for the decade. Here's a quick primer and then a screenshot of the BA list:
Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2009.

A quick observation about the list: the Yankees spent most of the decade developing prospects to trade. Some examples:
  • Alfonso Soriano (#1) netted the Yankees Alex Rodriguez
  • Jake Westbrook (#4) was part of the deal for David Justice
  • Nick Johnson (#3) and Juan Rivera (#5) netted the Yankees Javy Vazquez (the first time)
  • Javy Vazquez was then traded with Dioner Navarro (#8) for Randy Johnson
  • Marcus Thames (#10) was traded for Ruben Sierra (the second time)
  • Melky Cabrera (#9) was traded for Javy Vazquez (the second time)

Trades one and two worked out for the Yankees, trades three and four did not and the fifth on the list had it's good (Sierra's 2003 playoffs) and it's bad (the Yankees continuous search for a guy like Thames). The last trade is still too early to tell. It'll be interesting to see where this high risk, high reward class of prospects that Brian Cashman has drafted in recent years (as well as guys like Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain) end up on this list when it's all said and done. We'll have to check back in another decade to find out.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Worst Yankees Trades of the Decade

After compiling a list of the best Yankees trades of the past decade, Andrew has given me the honor of ranking some of the worst deals that the Yankees made this past decade. Here's what I came up with:

1. July 5, 2002 As part of a 3-team trade, traded Jason Arnold, John-Ford Griffin, and Ted Lilly to the Oakland Athletics. Received Jeff weaver from the Detroit Tigers. In addition, the Oakland Athletics sent a player to be named later, Frankly German, and Carlos Pena to the Detroit Tigers; and the Detroit Tigers sent cash to the Oakland Athletics. The Oakland Athletics sent Jeremy Bonderman (August 22, 2002) to the Detroit Tigers to complete the trade. This trade looked like a solid baseball trade for the Yankees. Jeff Weaver was regarded as one of baseball's young stud pitchers, with his nasty sinking fastball. He was only 25 at the time and locked up to a reasonable extended contract. Ted Lilly had shown promise in his year and a half in the Bronx but his stuff was not as good as Weaver's and Lilly never had the ace label that was commonly applied to Weaver. For the Yankees, they believed they were acquiring their next ace of the future. Unfortunately for the Yanks, it was Lilly who turned out to be the far more effective pitcher. Lilly went on to compile a .571 winning percentage from 2003-2009 and while he was never considered an ace, he certainly was considered more desirable than Jeff Weaver. Weaver's results were sporadic at best and when he gave up a game 4 World Series home run to Alex Gonzalez pitching in relief, the Yankees knew he had probably thrown his last pitch.

2. January 11, 2005 Traded Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro, Javier Vazquez, and cash to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Randy Johnson. The Yankees had tried to acquire Johnson during the Summer of 2004 but were unsuccessful (apparently the Diamondbacks were not interested in Chien-Ming Wang and Robinson Cano). And the winter before, the Yankees were unable to acquire Arizona's other former ace, Curt Schilling. After being humiliated in the 2004 ALCS, the top of the Yankee hierarchy (specifically Randy Levine) made acquiring The Big Unit a priority. The Yankees finally worked out a deal for Johnson and said goodbye to Javier Vazquez, the pitcher who the Yankees so firmly believed would be their ace just one year prior that they promptly gave him a four year extension. Also gone was lower-end of the rotation lefty Brad Halsey and top catch prospect Dioner Navarro. Johnson was only a shadow of his former self, as he fought off constant nagging injuries. He pitched well in the second half of 2005, but was atrocious in his one start in the ALCS. He struggled all throughout 2006 and never came close to performing as expected. Vazquez pitched decently in his year with Arizona and then became a workhorse for Ozzie Guillen's White Sox. After being dealt to the Braves last off season, he posted what might be his best single season numbers in 2009, leading the NL with 238 strikeouts. Halsey stayed in the league for a few years with Diamondbacks and the A's, while Navarro was shipped to the Dodgers and then the Rays, where he was the starting catcher for the 2008 AL Champs. The Yankees may be able to salvage a bit of this deal, as they were able to reacquire Vazquez this winter.

3. December 13, 2003 Traded Brandon Weeden, Yhency Brazoban, Jeff Weaver, and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Kevin Brown. The Yankees made this deal the day after Andy Pettitte left town for the Astros. Gone was enigmatic, but talented, Jeff Weaver, along with a few prospects who most of us had never heard of. In exchange, the Yankees received the oft-injured Kevin Brown, who was coming off a solid year in which he stayed healthy for the duration of the season. Brown was going to be depended on to be the team's ace coming into the year, replacing Roger Clemens. The results were far from Clemensesque. After starting off 5-0, Brown crumbled. His back eventually gave out and he made a trip to the DL. Upon returning, the results were much of the same as before and in an immature act of rage following a poor performance, he punched a wall with his non-pitching hand, breaking it. He would return to pitch in the postseason, where he was unable to do much against the Red Sox and put them in an early hole in the disastrous Game 7. 2005 wasn't much better for Brown, as he only managed to get through half of the season before shutting it down for good. Weaver, while he did not pitch well in New York, pitched well for the Dodgers from 2004-2005. He bounced around for the next couple of years, but helped the Cardinals win the World Series in 2006. Brazoban was electric during after his call up to the majors, but soon fought injuries and pitched a total of 9.2 innings since 2006.

4. June 13, 2001 Traded Damaso Marte to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Enrique Wilson. Not much to say about this one. The Yankees traded one of the better left-handed relievers of the decade for utility infielder who's only claim to fame was that he hit Pedro Martinez well. Wilson stuck with the Yankees through 2004, where in his final season he shared playing time at 2B with Miguel Cairo. The Yankees eventually reacquired Marte in 2008 and while the initial results were less than to be desired, his performance in the 2009 World Series has elevated his status significantly.

5. December 16, 2003 Traded Randy Choate, Nick Johnson, and Juan Rivera to the Montreal Expos. Received Javier Vazquez. The Yankees thought they were getting their next ace of the future (they had basically given up on Jeff Weaver taking on that roll). But to get Vazquez, the cost would be pricey. Gone was former top prospect Nick Johnson, who many believed was primed to have a breakout year. Juan Rivera had showed promise as well and Randy Choate had shown some ability to get left-handed hitters out. Vazquez put up solid numbers in the first half of 2004 and made an All-Star Appearance. However, an unspoken shoulder injury severely hampered his abilities during the second half. He was an abomination during the postseason and helped seal the deal for the Red Sox when on his first pitch of Game 7 in relief Johnny Damon hit his infamous grand slam. Johnson battled injuries for much of the past few years, but when healthy has been productive. Rivera was eventually dealt to the Angels and is now a very productive member of their outfield. Both Johnson and Vazquez are back with the Yankees so it will be interesting to see how they perform in their second stints.

6. July 12, 2000 Traded Jackson Melian, Drew Henson, Brian Reith, and Ed Yarnall to the Cincinati Reds. Received Mike Frank and Denny Neagle. The Yankees thought they were upgrading their rotation by acquiring Neagle and he briefly proved them right, starting out 2-0, including a complete game pitched against the Devil Rays. It simply went downhill from there, as he posted an ERA of close to 6.00. He pitched decently in the postseason but the Yankees wisely bid him goodbye after the season. Fortunately, Cincinnati received very little reward from this deal. None of the prospects traded made an impact and Drew Henson, a top prospect for the Yankees and multi-sport athlete, was dealt back to the Yankees, only to bomb out in both MLB and the NFL.

7. July 1, 2002 Traded Scott Wiggins to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Raul Mondesi. The Yankees hosted the Mets the weekend before this deal was made. Due to various injuries and other circumstances, Joe Torre was forced to play infielder Enrique Wilson in RF. The results were disastrous. George Steinbrenner was livid and went out made a quick deal for the talented, but unpredictable Raul Mondesi. Mondesi was known as a gritty player with a powerful bad and a feared right-field arm. Unfortunately, he was also a free swinger and was incredibly moody. He contributed greatly to the strikeout department, swinging at almost everything he saw. After working with Reggie Jackson and putting up solid numbers during the first part of 2003, he soon found his way back to his old habits and was dealt prior to the trade deadline.

8. June 13, 2001 Traded D'Angelo Jimenez to the San Diego Padres. Received Jay Witasick/July 1, 2001 Traded Ricardo Aramboles to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Mark Wohlers. I am bundling these two deals into one since both of the players acquired were expected to fill the same role and neither one came close to doing so. The Yankees unwisely let Jeff Nelson walk after the 2000 season over a matter of nickels and dimes. His departure left a huge void in the Yankee bullpen. After Brian Cashman tried to fill the role with various journeymen auditioning on minor league contracts, he turned to the trade market, acquiring Witasick and Wohlers. Witasick had pitched well in relief for the Padres and with the emergence of Alfonso Soriano, the Yankees felt they could part with the once highly regarded D'Angelo Jimenez. Wohlers, the once elite closer for the Braves, had fallen far from his star status, struggling with his control and eventually with injuries. He had put up solid numbers for the Reds so Cashman took a shot. Neither pitcher managed to make a positive impact and simply made the loss of Nelson look ever so important. Wohlers was left to walk after the season and Witasick was dealt for outfielder John Vander Wal.

9. March 21, 2001 Traded Wily Mo Pena to the Cincinatti Reds. Received Michael Coleman and Drew Henson. The Yankees never really wanted to deal Drew Henson the summer before. Henson made it clear that in choosing between baseball and football, baseball only remained an option if he was going to be playing for the Yankees. The Reds were forced to make a deal to send Henson back to the Yankees. Henson appeared in 8 games for the Yankees and never managed to overcome his tendency to strike out. Michael Coleman contributed in the early part of 2001 before being cut. Wily Mo Pena had a high ceiling and was eventually dealt to the Red Sox for Bronson Arroyo.

10. July 31, 2004 Traded Jose Contreras and cash to the Chicago White Sox. Received Esteban Loaiza. Contreras, once known as "El Titan de Bronze" in his native Cuba, was the object of a bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox during the Winter of 2002-2003. The Yankees won the bidding war (and rumor has it that newly appointed Red Sox GM Theo Epstein broke a window over this loss). Red Sox President Larry Luchino dubbed the Yankees with the infamous title of "The Evil Empire" after this incident. Perhaps the Red Sox should consider themselves lucky. Contreras showed the ability to look brilliant at times, but never looked comfortable, nor did he show the electric stuff that scouts had once spoken of. The Yankees finally gave up on him after a year and a half, dealing him veteran Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza had come off of a career year in 2003 but seemed to have lost whatever magic he had on his cut-fastball the year before. He performed poorly for the Yankees, losing his spot in the rotation. He pitched well in the ALCS, despite losing game 5. Contreras would go on to contribute to the 2005 World Champs and put up solid numbers the next season. He then tumbled into mediocrity, before finding his way as a reliever for the 2009 Wild Card Rockies.

Best Yankees Trades of the Decade

From 2000-2009, the Yankees were the best team in baseball. Now that the decade has ended (and yes, Red Sox fans, it has ended), let's look at the best and worst deals the Yankees made in the decade. We'll leave out the deals made this last off-season since it's way too early to judge them. First are the best deals. Thank you to Baseball-Reference for help in finding these.

Best Yankees deals:

1.November 13, 2008 Traded Jeff Marquez, Wilson Betemit and Jhonny Nunez to the Chicago White Sox. Received Kanekoa Texeira and Nick Swisher. I would have taken a bag of balls for Betemit. Instead, we got a starting rightfielder and one of the most patient hitters in baseball. River Avenue Blues called this a great deal from the start. Swisher is the opposite of Paul O'Neill in some ways out in right, but Swisher's working of a pitcher and the count reminds me a lot of how we ended the last decade. Texeira was selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Mariners but many think he'll be returned at some point, especially with Seattle trading for Brandon League. Nunez is still young, but posted a 9.53 ERA in the majors last year and Marquez was worse (9.85 ERA) in AAA. A championship ring in 2009 to boot makes this deal the biggest steal of the decade.

2.December 22, 1999 Traded Hideki Irabu to the Montreal Expos. Received players to be named later and Jake Westbrook. The Montreal Expos sent Ted Lilly (March 17, 2000) and Christian Parker (March 22, 2000) to the New York Yankees to complete the trade. I know, it's before 2000. But since we're excluding December 2009 and the trade wasn't completed until March of 2000, I figured we could add this one in. Why is this #2? Because the Yankees took an absolutely worthless, overweight, 30-year-old part and traded it for 2 pitchers who ended up being very good. The best part of this deal is former Expos owner Jeffrey Loria's excitement of the deal to The Star Ledger calling him one of their "top starters". Parker started one game in 2001, got bombed, and never pitched in the majors again. The Yankees gave up on Lilly too early and should have signed him instead of Kei Igawa, but that does not mean he hasn't been an excellent major leaguer. And Westbrook ended up being traded for David Justice...

3.June 29, 2000 Traded Zach Day, Ricky Ledee and Jake Westbrook to the Cleveland Indians. Received David Justice. I debated whether this one should be one or two before I dropped it down to 3 (Sports Illustrated puts it in their top deals since '94 list done in 2005 and provides the picture above). The Yankees had lost 10 of 13 when they made this deal and only lead the Red Sox by 2 games. They got Justice in this famous deal (Brian Cashman was calling about getting Gary Tuck his World Series ring) and won 8 of 10. Justice hit .305/.391/.585 the rest of the way with 20 HRs. He then slugged .538 with 2 HR and 8 RBI in the ALCS against Seattle with a huge home run in the final game to lead the Yankees to the Subway Series (and Michael Kay's famous, very hoarse announcement on the radio to "get your tokens ready") and eventually to a 2000 World Series win. He was not only the ALCS MVP, but as the USA Today wrote at the time, Justice seemingly in the middle of all their rallies in that series. All three of the players the Yankees traded ended up becoming decent major leaguers so it wasn't a steal (and Justice's struggles in the 2001 World Series was one of the reasons they didn't win), but delivering one of two World Series' this decade puts this trade on the list.

4. February 16, 2004 Traded a player to be named later and Alfonso Soriano to the Texas Rangers. Received Alex Rodriguez and cash. The New York Yankees sent Joaquin Arias (April 23, 2004) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade. ESPN's headline was "Selig gives blessing to mega-merger" when the deal was finally completed. I do have mixed emotions about this deal. But the truth is despite his past playoff failures and his off-the-field problems in New York, A-Rod has been one of the best players of the decade and helped lead them to a World Series win this past October/November. Soriano has had a very good major league career since leaving the Bronx but I don't think he would have ever stuck with the Yankees. Arias had a good year as a utility infielder in 2008 but only played in 3 games in 2009. Although it took a while, the Yankees did come out winners in this deal.

5. July 30, 2006 Traded C.J. Henry (minors), Carlos Monasterios (minors), Jesus Sanchez (minors) and Matt Smith to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle. Abreu seemed to be underappreciated in Philadelphia where his power went down after he won a homerun derby but his batting eye never did (.404 career OBP). The Yankees acquired Abreu because they had lost Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui to injury and had a gaping hole in the outfield. Keith Law of ESPN loved this trade for the Yankees. They filled it more than capably with Abreu (.330/.419/.507 the rest of the way) who helped them hold off Toronto and then lay a famous 5-game massacre of smack-down in Boston to keep the Red Sox from the playoffs. Lidle was good for the Yankees and could have been a part of their 2007 rotation (and may have prevented them from signing Kei Igawa) had he not died in a plane crash following the season. Monasterios was just drafted in the Rule 5 draft so he is the one player acquired by Philly who may have an impact in the majors. The only blip for the Yankees is that they never won a playoff series in the 2+ years they had Abreu.

6.July 31, 2003 Traded Robin Ventura to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Bubba Crosby and Scott Proctor. Traded Brandon Claussen, Charlie Manning and cash to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Aaron Boone. Two trades, one day. Amazingly, the Yankees got a lot more value out of what they received for Ventura than the Reds did for what the Yankees gave them for Boone. Boone hit one of the most famous homeruns of the decade and extended Red Sox suffering for another year. Proctor was a useful reliever for the Yankees for a while until his arm started to get worked off by Joe Torre and Bubba Crosby was almost their starting CF. Boone's injury in a pickup basketball game after the season voided his contract which may have been a blessing for the Yankees because he didn't really hit all that well in the Bronx, but Sports Illustrated recognized that deal as one of the best.

7.July 21, 2000. Traded Ben Ford and Oswaldo Mairena to the Chicago Cubs. Received Glenallen Hill. At the time the Yankees were only only a half game in front of the Red Sox with the rest of the AL East no more than 3.5 back. Well Hill took over August hitting a ridiculous .411/.456/.877 with 10 HR and the Yankees were propelled by their strong July and August into the playoffs. This trade was overshadowed by the Justice trade a month earlier, but Hill was huge for the Yankees.

8. July 21, 2007 Traded Jeff Kennard (minors) to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Jose Molina. The Yankees didn't have a decent backup to Jorge Posada since Joe Girardi left town so this move was a lot bigger than it seems. Molina would never hit for the Yankees, but his defense was huge and the pitchers loved to work with him (especially A.J. Burnett).

9. May 15, 2004 Traded Brian Myrow to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Tanyon Sturtze. Sturtze was a useful player for the Yankees and a good find by Brian Cashman. He was never great, but in 2005, he started off the season with a 2.32 ERA through June 8th with a .546 OPS against and at least provided Joe Torre one reliable arm to throw out there every game.  

10. December 7, 2001 Traded David Justice to the New York Mets. Received Robin Ventura. Not a great trade by any stretch of the imagination but the Yankees took a declining player in Justice and made it into one useful year of Robin Ventura. Ventura was an All Star in 2002 and provided good defense over at 3B. And then they flipped him for some more useful parts as you see in #6 above. Much more useful than the Steve Karsay signing the same day.

Three I just couldn't figure out but lean positive:
  • July 28, 2005 Traded Eduardo Sierra (minors) and Ramon Ramirez to the Colorado Rockies. Received Shawn Chacon. The Yankees rotation was a mess in 2005 until Chacon and Aaron Small came along. Chacon went 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA the rest of the way and actually pitched very well in the playoffs as well. Things didn't go so well for him the next season (7.00 ERA) and he was traded away for Craig Wilson. That second season and the way Ramon Ramirez has pitched in the majors pushes me to the fence on this deal. But the fact that Ramirez hasn't stuck with a team despite good numbers leads me to believe he would have never stuck with the Yankees either so I'll rate this deal positively.
  • July 26, 2008 Traded Daniel McCutchen (minors), Jose Tabata (minors), Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. I have gone back and forth on this deal many times. Nady got injured all of this past season and Marte sucked all season long...but then all was forgiven as Marte was a big part of the Yankees World Series win this year. Only Ohlnedorf I believe would have stuck with the Yankees, and although I miss him, I don't know if you hold out on this trade because of it. And after reading Jeff Pearlman's piece on the trade recently, I like it a lot more. So I'll put it here instead of on the next post.
  • August 7, 2000. Traded Chris Spurling to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Luis Sojo. This is less here about the players and more about the concept. Instead of resigning Sojo, the Yankees let Sojo get away before the 2000 season only to have to give up a player to get him back a few months later. Spurling never turned into anything and Sojo got a few huge hits in the World Series so I'll rate this one positively.
Will be back later with the worst Yankee trades of the decade...

    Tuesday, December 22, 2009

    Hot Stove Coal: Vazquez Reunion in the Bronx

    Last night Twitter was abuzz with a potential Yankee trade for a pitcher. Names were being thrown about but nothing had been confirmed. Well it seems that after calling the Pirates and asking about a few of their pitchers (including old friend Ross Ohlendorf), the Yankees have turned their sights to acquiring another former Yankee: Javier Vazquez. Joel Sherman says the Yankees are "working hard". And John Heyman has the details on the deal: @SI_JonHeyman: #yankees, #braves deal will send vazquez, boone logan to ny for melky, lhp mike dunn and a prospect (who seems to be Arodys Vizcaino--one of their top-10 prospects).

    Now, I'll preface my feelings on this deal saying that I never thought the Yankees should have traded Vazquez in the first place. He had an OK year but he was young, affordable, and had great potential. But the Yankees ignored all of that and shipped him off for Randy Johnson. One of Vazquez's best seasons came last year with Atlanta when he went 15-10 in 219.1 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 5.41 SO/BB.

    So what's the difference this time around? Well Vazquez is 6 years older now. And, unlike the last time he was in Pinstripes, he won't be asked to front a rotation--rather, he'll be the #4 starter.

    So why did the Yankees do this? Well they needed to keep up the arms race with the Red Sox who signed John Lackey. Now the Yankees counter the Red Sox 5 of Beckett/Lester/Lackey/Dice-K/Bucholz with CC/AJ/Pettitte/Vazquez/Joba or Hughes. There are going to be some epic battles there. Plus, I'm sure that the Yankees looked at the durable Vazquez (whose only season that he didn't throw 200+ innings this past decade was his season with the Yankees when he threw 198) as a good compliment to injury-prone A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte and an over-worked CC Sabathia. Vazquez averaged 216 innings pitched over the past decade. Only 5 Yankee pitchers this decade have pitched 216 innings in a season (Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina in 2001, Randy Johnson in 2005, Chien-Ming Wang in 2006 and CC Sabathia last season). Vazquez won 10 games every season last decade and struck out 200 batters in half of those seasons

    Now could this deal backfire? Sure. The fans certainly have a sour taste of Vazquez who was part of the epic Game 7 collapse against the Red Sox. Vazquez 2004 in Pinstripes was certainly not his finest year. And although he had great success in the NL East last season, he may not adapt well to the much better hitting AL East. Vazquez also may not be made for the big lights of New York. He's pitched in Montreal, Atlanta, Arizona and with the White Sox--and doesn't seem to love the spotlight. He's also not young anymore so the durability issues come into play. And the Yankees are giving up Melky Cabrera who is still young and could develop into a good starter (and how will Robinson Cano react?), Mike Dunn who they seemed unwilling to deal in the Granderson or Halladay talks, and Arodys Vizcaino who while still young was one of their top 10 prospects. The other player coming to the Yankees (Boone Logan) is a LOOGY who will replace Phil Coke as the second lefty in the bullpen.

    Vazquez is signed for a manageable 11.5M this year, though, and this trade does improve the team today. Do I love this deal? No. Do I think this makes them better? Yes. And for $22.5 M the Yankees now have Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson and Javy Vazquez for 2010 (in comparison, they paid Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui $26M combined last year). So I like the deals for 2010, but I just hope that the trades for Granderson and Vazquez don't come back to bite them in future.

    Wednesday, December 16, 2009

    Hot Stove Coal: A Few Early Grades

    It's never too early or too late to assign some early grades on moves made by Major League Baseball teams and players this off-season. Let's take a quick look:
    Boston Red Sox: It's been a strange conversion from the slugging idiots that won in 2004 to this team. With trading away Mike Lowell (who was the worst defensive third basemen in the majors last year...though may not be traded just yet) combined with the signings of Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron and John Lackey (who looks like "Haywire" from Prison Break) the focus has seemed to shift to defense, run prevention, and baseball savvy. I just don't know where the offense will come from this team unless Big Papi has a bounceback year or Mike Cameron finds the fountain of youth in Boston--he's 37 and Jorge Arangure tweets: "@jorgearangure: Bill James Handbook not very optimistic about Mike Cameron. Predicts .237/.328/.428 season in 2010." (shouldn't Bill James, a Red Sox employee, alert them to these matters?). If healthy, the trio of Lackey, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester is as devastating as they come...but that's a big if with the first two. I don't think they're done, though. Adrian Gonzalez for Clay Bucholz (with Lackey now in the rotation), Jacoby Ellsbury (with Mike Cameron on the team), and a high level prospect seems like the way to go for the Sox. But if they trade Ellsbury, they need to find a corner infielder (to replace Lowell) and a corner outfielder (since Cameron would shift to CF, his natural position). Some really like their moves but it seems to me like a lot is still in the works so I'll give the Red Sox a B so far.

    New York Yankees: I had to follow one with the other, right? The Yankees are coming off a World Series championship (which they are still celebrating) and need to balance "if ain't broke, don't fix it" with "never be satisfied". The trade for Curtis Granderson continues their quest to get younger and the signing of Andy Pettitte fills a hole in the rotation, but the team still needs a left fielder/DH and probably another pitcher. Johnny Damon is a good option for the Yankees but they'll only wait so long for him to decide (though many think he'll end up back in the Bronx including me). If not, guys like Matt Holliday/Jason Bay, Nick Johnson, Vlad Guerrero, and others start looking like other options. And as for starter, now that Roy Halladay and John Lackey are unavailable, look for the Yankees to look at low-risk/high-reward guys like Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Chien-Ming Wang or even a guy like Jarrod Washburn. The Yankees aren't done but they're improved. And the biggest thing? The Yankees didn't clean out the farm system going after a Halladay or clean out the bank account going after a Holliday just because the Red Sox did something showing this is definitely not George Steinbrenner's teams of past. Sometimes you can have a grand day without doing anything. I'd give the Yankees off-season so far a B as well.

    New York Yankees 2010 Postseason: The Yankees are screwed. Why? Not because they lost their World Series MVP or the guy who pulled off a double steal on the same play or even because Cody Ransom left the organization. It's because A-Rod and Kate Hudson split. Nooooooooooooooooo! F!

    Scott Boras clients: Not really working out so well for them so far. Johnny Damon seems to think he's going to get another 4-year, $52 million contract from someone but who would be dumb enough to give that to him at 36? He better start looking around. Matt Holliday? Still on holiday and waiting for that Mark Teixeira-like deal. Adrian Beltre? He might price himself out with the Red Sox which would leave him in a precarious situation since there's not a lot of other teams who can afford to pay him what he wants. Rick Ankiel? Not on anyone's radar. Somehow the one Boras client to get signed was Ivan Rodriguez. Oh those Nationals... I'd give Scott Boras a C- so far

    Seattle Mariners: I want to declare them big winners of the winter for getting Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins...but they depleted their minor leagues and they still don't have any power in that lineup. Hopefully Figgins and Ichiro can steal home a lot. Still, the duos of King Felix and Lee at the top of the rotation and Ichiro and Figgins at the top of the lineup will be hard for many teams to deal with. I just can't give them higher than a B right now.

    Cliff Lee: You know the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's girlfriend asks Jerry to decide between "the voice" and her? He surprises her and everyone by choosing "the voice" (hellloooooooo!). I think that's sort of what Cliff Lee must have felt here. Lee's contract demands were said to be about what CC Sabathia got. So Philly decided to basically trade one year of Lee and heartache when he leaves for four much cheaper years of Roy Halladay. In the end, Jerry's choice of "the voice" doesn't work out (and I'm not sure the Phillies choice will either), but the person most hurt in the end is the ex-girlfriend (who in this metaphor is Lee). Lee might have missed they money fountain and goes from the NL favorites to a good, but not great team so I'll give Lee a C.

    Philadelphia Phillies: I don't know. I'm not a big Placido Polanco fan, but then again I wasn't a big Raul Ibanez fan and look at the season he had. I think they were better off going for it all with Halladay and Lee or just keeping Lee...but you can't argue with having Roy Halladay. I just think they took a big dent in their farm system (maybe a really big dent) without greatly improving their team which is a tough swallow and I would have gone a different avenue. They also need a better alternative in the 'pen (John Smoltz?) in case Brad Lidge falters again next season. At least they have Cody Ransom I'll give the Phillies a C+ so far.

    Los Angeles Dodgers: The organization is a mess because of the divorce of the McCourts. They didn't offer arbitration to their free agents because they didn't want to pay the draft picks. They won't make any big trades or signings. The only trades they made were to acquire cheap Rule 5 picks and to get rid of Juan Pierre's high salary. This is a big mess for Scott Boras, especially. This was a team on the cusp of the World Series which is going to watch everyone else get better around them. I think you have to give them an F.

    Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Two winters ago they lost Mark Teixeira and K-Rod. This winter they lost John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero. Their one big addition? Hideki Matsui. Matsui is an upgrade over Vlad (and may steal Japanese reporters from the Yankees), but they're losing ground to other teams. Not a good start for Arte Moreno's squad: C+.

    Bud Selig: The World Series ended with huge questions about instant replay, the length of the playoffs, announcing, etc. Where are those issues now? Drowned out by Tiger Woods and the Hot Stove. His two biggest announcements of the off-season were that he may be stepping down and that he's forming a committee. Small market teams are spending money and big market teams are being thrifty bringing about the parity that commissioners dream of. I always believe a sport is best served when the commissioner is not part of the news. Nice job, Bud, you get an A-.

    Chicago White Sox: I'll let Twitter handle this one: @CliffCorcoran: Updating prev tweet: Rios! Teahen! Kotsay! 43-year-old Vizquel! Bloated corpse of Andruw Jones! De Aza! Putz! Pierre! White Sox in '10! D

    New York Mets: Well at least they have depth at catcher (?). At least Johan Santana is popular in Venezuela (?). They missed out on all the pitchers (including cheaper options like Randy Wolf). They made a good Rule 5 pick and then traded him away. Their rightfielder had serious ligament replacement. Their shortstop has been day-to-day for six months and "doesn't want to be a leader". Their star centerfielder may or may not be healthy. Their best bet may be to overpay for a left fielder who may better as a DH and was once on the Mets. And they can't sell seats. At least they painted the Stadium colors of their team. So far, they get a D+.

    Toronto Blue Jays: They got rid of B.J. Ryan, Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen and Alex Rios. They played the Red Sox and are going to get two picks from them just for giving them the pleasure of singing Marco Scuatro. They got the prospects they wanted from the Blue Jays and didn't trade him within the division. They still have an albatross in Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay is better off traded, but I like what they've done to start over. That being said, they probably won't be good next year. I'll give them a B.

    Joe Mauer: The less money the Yankees and Red Sox spend this winter, the more they have available to give him a huge contract next off-season. He's hoping that Matt Holliday and Jason Bay go to someone else so he can pave his way to a huge payday as he finds a mantle for his MVP award. I'll give him an A.

    Atlanta Braves: Derek Lowe is now a hot pitching commodity that they can get a decent player from the Angels for...who would have thunk that? A-

    Technology, Twitter and Statheads: No one had a better winter than this group (which I just grouped together for the heck of it). The two Cy Young winners were picked not because of wins and the AL MVP was picked not because of home runs. Then the creator of Baseball-Reference was admitted into the BBWAA and Bloomberg got into the baseball statistics game. But no one had a better off-season than Twitter which has become a big player in baseball--where rumors and deals and everything in between are broken first and where the rumor mill churns fastest. Sure there are false reports that get leaked, but it's not like that didn't happen already. Baseball writers have forgone their papers, their columns, their radio spots and their blogs to be the first one to tweet the big scoop. Twitter has become the go-to source for all baseball moves and that's why they get my only A+.

    Tuesday, December 15, 2009

    A Trade Evolution: Mulder to Halladay/Lee with Holliday in Between

    Sometimes, trades just continue to flow. Here is a cool one for how Mark Mulder actually ended up getting involved in the Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee deal being finished up and how Holliday and Halladay are closer than you think...and how that wily Billy Beane seems to be a part of all of this.

    The Oakland A's traded Mark Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals for Daric Barton, Kiko Calero and Dan Haren.

    The Oakland A's traded Dan Haren with Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Chris Carter, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith.

    The Oakland A's traded Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street to the Colorado Rockies for Matt Holliday.

    The Oakland A's traded Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson.

    The Oakland A's have agreed to trade Brett Wallace for Michael Taylor who is being traded to the Blue Jays with Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek for Roy Halladay (who is being dealt in the same deal as Cliff Lee).

    Got all that (H/T to Baseball Reference for all the deals)? You would be missing a few positions, but you could field a pretty good team with all those players.

    Wednesday, December 9, 2009

    Hot Stove Coal: My Take on the Granderson Deal

    Work got busy yesterday so I didn't get a chance to post about the three-way deal that netted the Yankees Curtis Granderson. I figured I'd break down my thoughts on the deal:

    A few points (the picture on the right from Chad Jennings of LoHud shows that Granderson does wear #28 as the Yankees go after World Series #28):

    -My initial reaction about the Granderson rumor a few weeks back was that the Yankees tread carefully, but trended on the negative. My problem was that Granderson comes with some negatives (which LoHud's Sam Borden helps to debunk). That said, my mind changed throughout the day. Tyler Kepner seemed to have the same thoughts. I give this deal an A-/B+ right now.

    -The reason I say right now is that the Yankees still need--as Keith Law wrote on ESPN--a right-handed caddy. I'm not saying that Granderson won't find a way to hit lefties (many have pointed out that Paul O'Neill did once he got to New York), but the Yankees could use a backup OF that's righthanded, especially if Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui come back. Reed Johnson, as Tyler Kepner tweeted, is a FA and would be a good fit. So would Rocco Baldelli.

    -I am worried about Granderson having two down-trending years (though not as worried as NYBD is about Granderson's "average" in a very "average" article). But the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher under similar circumstances last off-season and he was great for them. Ben however pointed out that the Yankees gave up a lot less in that deal. Fair enough, but we pretty much know that Granderson is worth about 3.5-4 wins, even if he doesn't return to his status of 3 years ago.

    -And that's because he's an above-average defensive and offensive centerfielder. The Yankees haven't had someone like him roaming center since Bernie Williams was in his prime--and Bernie was never good as Granderson defensively. That defense should help shore up a solid Yankees OF as they continue to get better defensively.

    -As for the haul: Phil Coke was a second lefty in the bullpen and is pretty easily replaceable (maybe by Mike Dunn whose removal--Joel Sherman tweeted--was the key for the Yankees pulling the trigger) and Ian Kennedy is no longer a top prospect for the Yanks. Would he have been a useful 6th starter or top AAA arm? Maybe. But the guy threw one inning last year and supposedly has an ego problem (according to an old Pete Abraham post), so I don't have an issue letting him go. The one piece you cringe about giving up is Austin Jackson, an athletic OF who had become a jewel in the Yankee farm system. Trading him leaves the Yankees without any top non-catching position prospect. And while Jackson may become a good player, he wasn't going to be this year and Granderson will be better than him next year as well. I don't love parting with AJax, especially for a non-pitcher, but a prospect is just that: a prospect. And if you believe Jackson's ceiling is Curtis Granderson as The Girl Who Loved Andy Pettitte does, you need to get Curtis Granderson now on a win-now Yankees team.

    -FanGraphs gives this deal an overly enthusiastic A+ for the Yankees. I usually take grades like that with a grain of salt, but FanGraphs is usually dead-on with these predictions and here is what Dave Cameron had to say:
    From the Yankees perspective, this deal is almost too good to be true. Heading into his age 29 season, Granderson is a legitimate +4 win center fielder signed to a bargain contract for the next four years...and the Yankees are getting him for a variety pack of role players. He instantly makes their team better, giving them a legitimate all-star center fielder who should thrive in Yankee Stadium. For as much as the Yankees have a payroll advantage, they continue to win because Brian Cashman targets the right players. Granderson is a fantastic acquisition for them.
    I have to say that this assessment made me feel a little better and Rob Neyer agrees with "his friends". Big League Stew likes this one for the Yankees as well. MLB.com looks at the prospects

    -The big winner in this trade may end up being the Tigers. They get--as MLBTradeRumors and others point out--potentially 22 years of control, a few premium young players, and they were the ones who needed to make a move as The Detroit Free Press points out. That's pretty good, though the reason they got to this point--as Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports points out--is because of a bevy of bad decisions and trying to buy a title. Max Scherzer and Edwin Jackson are a wash in my book and Scherzer may end up being better (though I would be worried if I was the Tigers about why Arizona was so quick to dump him). Austin Jackson will step into their OF right away and the two lefties will give them power arms out of the bullpen. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports likes this trade a lot for the Tigers as does Keith Law, Frankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse and others.

    -Arizona's role in this was curious (peer pressure?) but I think that Jackson and Kennedy will both pitch well in Arizona and the no-hit NL West. I just think they gave up a lot to get them, though The Arizona Republic likes this deal for the DBacks. With Jackson, Webb and Haren, the Diamondbacks have a front three to go against the duos on the other West squads of Lincecum-Cain and Kershaw-Billingsly. Kennedy needs to be a good #4 to make this trade more palatable.

    -Via MLBTradeRumors: "Granderson is owed $5.5MM in 2010, $8.25MM in '11, and $10MM in '12, with a $13MM club option/$2MM buyout for '13". So it's $25.75MM for 3 years or $36.75MM for four years (plus award bonuses). That's reasonable. As IIATMS writes: "For plus defense in CF and 25-30 home runs, I don't think $8.5m AAV is a bad deal. Again, if he tanks, well..."

    -This does not spell the end for Melky or Damon or anyone else. The Yankees still have moves to make to fill out their roster and River Avenue Blues gives a few thoughts of where the Yankees move next.. I don't think they're going with Melky in left and Juan Miranda as the DH. Though if the Yankees wanted to deal Melky, MLBTradeRumors points out "the Cubs are one possible suitor." Joel Sherman writes that this increases the Yankees leverage with Damon. This trade does seem to end the Miguel Cabrera-to-the-Red Sox rumors as Pete Abraham writes.

    -This actually may be the best thing I heard about Granderson's numbers from Chad Jennings: "One thing to like about Granderson: He’s at his best when he’s pulling the ball. And managed to pull the ball roughly 50 percent of the time last season. And pulling the ball is a good thing for a left-handed hitter to do in Yankee Stadium." Yes it is. As long as he doesn't get too homer-happy at Yankee Stadium, he could have a bounceback year, especially since his last year may have been depressed by bad luck judging from his BAbip. River Avenue Blues and the Detroit Tiger Weblog go more in depth on this and say that the problem was that getting too pull-happy meant a lot of weak pop-ups the other way. Buster Olney also wrote that Granderson hit out of place as a lead-off hitter. If he's lower down in the Yankee lineup without the pressure of leading off, it may be best for the Yankees and Granderson. And Joel Sherman writes the Yankees know Granderson well, having scouted him the last month of the season when the Yankees thought they were playing the Tigers in the playoffs.

    -And, lastly, I would be amiss if I didn't mention Granderson's "intangibles". He's supposedly good in the clubhouse and great in the community as Newsday's Wallace Matthews writes. He possesses a lot of Jeterian qualities as Jayson Stark writes. Now is he clutch, Joel Sherman wants to know?

    Hopefully this all leads back to championship #28 with #28 roaming CF for the Yankees.