Oldschool Subway, Best of 5, Cut Fastball, and Happy Thames

A few quick bullet points before I head out for the day and make my way down to the Stadium for Game 3 of the American League Championship Series:

Photo from the NY Transit Museum

Nostalgia Train

I saw this tweet from the New York City Transit: "@NYCTSubwayScoop: The Nostalgia Playoff Special departs 42nd St-Grand Central at approx 7:00pm, via express to 161st St. http://ow.ly/i/4G1g #YankeesSubway." As Ben Kabak of 2nd Ave. Sagas writes, this is a train you'll see for each of the ALCS home playoff games as you did for the ALDS.

I got a chance to ride this train to the last game at the Old Yankee Stadium and I have to say, it was an experience. I had no clue it was happening and when it showed up on the track, my jaw dropped. Definitely make sure to catch this train if you can. It's not only express the whole way, but it's really, really awesome inside and will take you back to a by-gone era.

Best of 5 Series

As Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues correctly points out, the Yankees basically have a 5-game series with home-field advantage the rest of the way out in the series. Three big games at home followed by (possibly) two more in Texas. The big issue? Cliff Lee goes twice for Texas while the Yankees only get CC Sabathia once. But, as the New York Post's Joel Sherman points out in his article stating why A.J. Burnett has to pitch tomorrow (and I agree with him), he also points this out that in a worst case scenario where the Yankees would lose the next two games: "then at least the Yanks would have Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte on normal rest to try to go on a three-game winning streak to save their season. And, you know, there is not an actual law that states the Yanks can’t beat Lee or win when Burnett starts."

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An Early Review of the Yankees 2010 Transactions

Yankees fans may have been spoiled by the 2009 season. After missing the 2008 playoffs, Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman went to work on building the 2009 team and added many important pieces including Sergio Mitre, Damaso Marte (a resigning), Andy Pettitte (ditto) Nick Swisher (for basically nothing), A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira. The mid-season trades worked out as well as they acquired Romulo Sanchez (a possible 2010 September call-up if healthy) for a spare part, Eric Hinske for more spare parts, Jerry Hairston, Jr. for yet more spare parts, and then picked up Chad Gaudin and Freddy Guzman during the waiver wire period. Every one of those players contributed in one way or another (except for Sanchez) to the 2009 World Series winning team and Brian Cashman came away looking like a genius who turned everything he touched into gold.

Thames has been Cashman's best off-season move to date (NYDN)

The Midas Touch didn't translate as well to 2010. The Yankees traded Brian Bruney for a Rule 5 draft pick (Jamie Hoffmann). They traded Phil Coke, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson. They signed Nick Johnson, traded and signed a ton of spare outfielders (Reid Gorecki, Greg Golson, Jason Pridie, Chad Huffman, etc.), traded for Javier Vazquez (and Boone Logan), signed Randy Winn, Royce Ring, Dustin Moseley, Marcus Thames, Chad Moeller, and Chan Ho Park. Since the season started they resigned Chad Gaudin, signed Eric Bruntlett and Chad Tracy (the latter which has been released), and traded for Austin Kearns, Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood.

While the 2010 mid-season moves have worked out to date, the off-season moves have not. Hoffmann lasted until March and then they returned him to the Dodgers (despite rumors he would be traded back, he's still with Los Angeles). Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson have all excelled for their new teams, and Granderson has been a huge disappointment for the Yankees*. Nick Johnson (injuries) and Javier Vazquez (ineffectiveness) both have been huge disasters in their return to the Yankees, and although Michael Dunn for Boone Logan is a wash and I don't think Melky Cabrera truly had a place on this team, Arodys Vizcaino (the prospect traded in the deal), dominated the Sally League going 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA, a WHIP under 1, and a SO/BB ratio of 7.33 before being promoted (and remains one of Atlanta's best prospects).

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G-I-D-P Spells Frustration Over Last Night's Ending

At times, I feel like I'm spoiled as a Yankee fan. I don't expect the team to go 162-0, but in the past two years I've seen them launch some improbably comebacks and made opposing bullpens look like mush so often that I feel like they are never out of a game. So when last night the Yankees were down 2-0 or 3-0 in a game, I felt like a comeback was not only imminent, but necessary. The team's bats had failed recently and this was about the time they turned it on and stole a game. And while things were derailed in the 8th inning when Marcus Thames grounded out, I felt that the 9th inning was going to provide promise as well.

GIDP is becoming all too Jeterian at times (MSNBC)

But then came "fun with numbers" as Derek Jeter--El Capitan, Captain Clutch, etc--rapped into a 6-4-3 double play. Game over.

I'm not naive to suggest that the Yankees should come back there. Or that Derek Jeter is the clutchiest clutch hitter that ever lived, but the Yankees could have not swung the bat and won that game. Nor was this all Jeter's fault as Jorge Posada (and to a lesser extent Marcus Thames and Curtis Granderson) were guilty of the same Jeterian mistakes as the Captain himself. And I'm not unappreciative of who Derek Jeter is or what he's done for this team, this franchise and this sport*, but there were some serious problems that I had with yesterday's game**.

*Side Note: Joe Posanski had a great debate today about Derek Jeter vs. Mariano Rivera on who was more important to the Yankees. I need to get into greater detail in a later post about this, but the answer for me is Mariano Rivera and the reason is because of an Intro to Econ concept called opportunity cost. With the Yankees financial might, they could always sign another shortstop such as Alex Rodriguez  to take over for Derek Jeter and the result would have been pretty damn good if not better. But the opportunity cost of Mariano Rivera is unthinkable (and Rivera is a "rate environment extremophile" according to Tommy Bennett of Baseball Prospectus so you gotta love that). JoePo touched on this but even the best closers in the game never reached the level of consistency or dominance that Mo did. Money can't buy that. That isn't to say that Derek Jeter wasn't more valuable to the Yankees dynasty (he definitely was and any WAR or Win Shares) calculation will back that up, but despite the fact today's closers are vastly overrated, the answer has to go to Jeter in the value column. Though I may have mixed up the two. Undetermined.

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The Yankee Clipper: A Great Win

It was one of those nights where I knew I had other things to do, but I was frozen on the couch watching the Yankee game. Down 6-1 to Cliff Lee the Yankees looked down and out, facing a two-game sweep and a three-game losing streak with Tampa Bay and Boston getting awfully close in the rear view mirror. And then they had one of those comebacks that you remember during every championship year. 7-6 final. Amazing. Let's talk about it:

A big high five to Thames for his performance last night (Star-Ledger)

1. Reminds me a lot of last year's win against the Braves. On June 24, 2009, the Yankees were 39-22, 5 games back in the American League East, and and having lost three in a row, 5 out of 6, and 9 out of 12. It was make or break for the Yankees as they faced the Atlanta Braves after having been shut out by a rookie (Tommy Hanson) the night before. They were being no-hit through 3 innings when all of a sudden Joe Girardi got himself tossed, Francisco Cervelli hit a home run, and the Yankees won the game on their way to a 7-game winning streak--and a 13 out of 15 game streak that launched them into first place. It was one of those games that is drilled into my skull as a great comeback and one of those defining moments of the season. Last night's win against Cliff Lee (an old-school battle the starter and come back against the bullpen win they used to have a lot against Pedro Martinez), felt like that to me. The team seemed like they were going to be a day late and a buck short like their previous two losses when they couldn't get a hit in the key situations. But, in the end, they did. I was exhilarated afterward and it look like the team was as well. Those types of wins can go a long way--especially if they face the Rangers again in October.
2. Marcus Thames has been in the middle of a few big wins this season. Brien @ IIATMS calls him a not-so-unlikely hero. On May 17th vs. Jonathan Papelbon and the Red Sox, Alex Rodriguez tied the game in the 9th inning with a home run and a few batters later, Marcus Thames hit a walk-off home run. Last night, Derek Jeter tied the game in the 9th inning and Marcus Thames got the go-ahead hit. Thames also blasted a home run (which I think brought down rain) an inning earlier in the game to bring the Yankees within one run. As Mark Feinsand of the Daily News writes, Marcus Thames is once again showing his value on the bench. When the Yankees went out and acquired Austin Kearns and Lance Berkman at the trade deadline, some wanted the Yankees to get rid of the slow, defensively challenged Thames. But the Yankees held on to him because of his bat. Most of that damage this year has done against lefties. But his two biggest hits of the season, have come vs. right-handed pitchers. Against lefties this year Thames is hitting .343/.416/.448 (with a .384 wOBA) with 1 HR and vs. righties he's he's hit .289/.393/.511 with 3 HR. It's a small sample size (and his BABIP is off-the-wall high) but this does show that Thames is truly a threat off the bench no matter who is pitching. A good thing to know before the playoffs start.
3. The Great Mariano as Houdini.

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Late to the Party: My Reaction on a Busy Trade Deadline for the Yankees

I know, I know, I'm late to the party. But after writing a trade deadline wishlist, I was shocked to see the Yankees check off quite a few boxes. While none of the moves guarantees the Yankees a chance at the playoffs (much less the pennant or the World Series), the deadline transactions shows that Brian Cashman is willing to shrewdly work the system towards the Yankees benefit in different ways than they truly have before. Let's take a look at the deadline moves and, putting them in the context of what they improved on, show that while it's not a clear home run for the Yankees, the July 31st moves were clearly a win.

Austin Kearns adds a solid OF bat (ESPN)

Austin Kearns: Probably my favorite move of all just because it fit a need perfectly. Kearns can play all three outfield positions and is extremely solid out there (with a plus arm). He's played most of his career in rightfield where he has a 58.0 UZR in over 6,000 innings, but moved back to leftfield in 2010 for the first time since 2003. After Kearns was a solid hitter from 2000-2007, his hitting dipped to below average numbers for 2008 and 2009 (with much lower BABIPs) and some felt he may be slowing down. But Kearns has been much better in 2010 (though some of that is buoyed by a great start to the season--.689 OPS since May 18th) and the Yankees were looking for a solid right-handed bat off their bench.

Kearns basically replaces Marcus Thames in the field (big win) and Curtis Granderson at bat against lefties (another big win). Kearns has a career OPS of .799 vs. lefties and his .353 wOBA and .383 OBP are exactly what the Yankees need from him when we consider Granderson has given them a .252 OBP, .538 OPS and a woeful .242 wOBA vs. southpaws. The smart move against lefties would be to play Brett Gardner in CF, Kearns in left, and DH Thames (and more on this below). The fear is that Kearns hot start masked a declining player who will flounder playing for his first big-market team--but I don't see that. For what the Yankees need Kearns for (platoon righty and bench bat), Kearns seems to make perfect sense). That he basically replaced Colin Curtis on the roster is a win (despite the fact I like Curtis). And all for the ole PTBNL or cash it was a shrewd and cheap move in what turned into a light outfield market.

Lance Berkman: The Big Puma is no longer and Fat Elvis seems to reign now--but regardless of which nickname you use, Berkman is a player who can certainly help the Yankees down the stretch. With Nick Johnson in a black hole of injury, the Yankees have been working through a platoon of Marcus Thames and Lance Berkman with a few games of Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada in their DH slot. For all intents and purposes, Berkman replaces Miranda on the roster. No matter how much I liked Miranda in the little time I saw of him, this can't be seen as anything but a win. Now it's never as clear cut as that, though. Lance Berkman is not the same guy who finished in the top-5 in MVP voting 4 different years. He's not even close to the player who put up a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) number of 7.5 in 2008 (only Albert Pujols, Chase Utley and David Wright were higher that year). But Berkman is still a premium hitter who knows how to get on base (career OBP of .409). The biggest problem for Berkman has that he's been bad vs. lefties this year (.188/.278/.281 w/ 1 HR) and was not as good away from Minute Maid Park (almost 200 points lower OPS). But the fact that he's going to have Marcus Thames as his right-handed DH caddy and that he's moving to a good hitters park in the Bronx should alleviate some of those concerns--as does his excellent 16.4% BB rate and his top-20 rank in pitcher per plate appearance (4.14) which makes him another patient, dangerous hitter to work through.

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NYaT's Yankee Wishlist for the Trade Deadline

It's hard to "fix" a team that's on pace to win 104 regular season games, has the best record and run differential in baseball, and has won more games at home than Baltimore has in their entire season--but we're going to try. With the trade deadline fast approaching and Tampa Bay right on the Yankees' heels, I asked my fellow NYaT'ers what they think the Yankees need to do to put this group over the top. A compiled list of results below: 

Brett the Jet hitting #1 could help Yanks (Star-Ledger)

1. Move Brett Gardner to the leadoff spot. I'm not sure why this hasn't been done already, but I'm going to throw this out there as my personal "big fix" for the Yankees. The Yankees have argued that hitting him 9th gives them a "second leadoff hitter". Explain to me that logic? Why not just have him as your first leadoff hitter? Gardner is hitting .300/.397/.403 with a .372 wOBA and is on pace for almost 50 steals. Derek Jeter is having a down year, hitting .274/.338/.388 with a .324 wOBA which is just a tick under Juan Miranda's. And yet Jeter is unmovable from the leadoff spot while Gardner is left for the bottom 3rd of the lineup? The Yankees have been at a loss to find their #2 hitter since Nick Johnson went down with an injury early in the season, but I'm pretty sure their solution has just been hitting first. Imagine how much better the Yankees lineup would be with Gardner-Jeter-Tex-ARod-Cano-Posada-Swisher. Moving Swisher down creates more of a fluid lineup and will stretch their lineup even deeper. Gardner also gets on base vs. lefties (remember when the Yankees were worried about his right-handed caddy for Gardner instead of for Granderson) with a .391 OBP.

And here's another factor: Gardner leads the Major Leagues in pitchers per plate appearance at 4.61 (and by a lot). The last guy to even approach that number was Rickey Henderson's 4.55 in 1997. That many pitches makes the starter work harder and helps to tire him out faster. And, by the way, the last Yankee to have an OBP of at least .397 and steal 45 bases? Rickey Henderson in 1985. I'm not saying that Gardner is Rickey--but wouldn't you want to give him more plate appearances to find out?

Joba hasn't stepped up as the "Bridge to Mariano" (NYDN)

2. An upgrade in the bullpen. This is where my compadres and I differ in our opinions. I've seen the Yankees waste decent prospects on mediocre relievers just to theoretically get a small advantage before the trade deadline. I saw the Red Sox go out and get Eric Gagne in 2007. I'm just not a fan of the big fix reliever. I don't think they exist. You need a closer, and some solid guys in front and that's it, in my opinion. The Yankees could tweak that bullpen by calling back up Jonathan Albaladejo and Ivan Nova (and getting rid of dead weight guys like CHoP and Chad Gaudin). But others differed.

Paul said: "They don’t need to do much but the one issue is the bullpen. They need help, I just don’t know who. I would love Scott Downs but the Jays are asking too much. I don’t want them to trade any good prospects for middle relief so they should be careful. I also hope they don’t trade Joba."

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The Yankee Clipper: Catcher and Designated Hitter

So far in our post-All-Star Break Yankee Clipper series we've covered the Yankees' infield and outfield so far in 2010. Now let's take a moment and look at their catchers and DHs. I felt like this went together since Jorge Posada has spent so much time at DH this season. Let's take a look at how these two groups have performed and see if the Yankees may need to make some changes before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline:

1. Jorge Posada. If you were to give Posada's year an overall grade, what would it be? I think it would have to be someplace in the B- range. Since Posada's 6th place MVP finish in 2007 (and subsequent contract extension), the Yankees backstop has missed quite a lot of time with injuries. He played in only 51 games in 2008, 111 games in 2009, but is on pace to play in 134 this season. Posada's value is almost solely in his bat behind the plate (his catching has regressed with age) so when he has to spend a lot of time at DH, it hurts his value somewhat. So far in 2010, Posada has played 36 games at catcher, 20 at DH and 1 at 1B. Those 20 games at DH blow past his previous high of 15 in 2008. Posada's .265/.373/.464 slash line is down from last year or 2007, but some of that could be attributed to trying to play through injuries. His power numbers have suffered as well as his pace of 27 doubles, 20 HR, and 65 RBI would be one of the poorest outputs of a full season in his entire career. According to FanGraphs, Posada is crushing fastballs and hitting sliders well, but any other pitch has been getting him. Posada's home-road splits have been quite pronounced this year as he's hitting exactly 300 OPS points higher in New Yankee Stadium (which reflects last year's numbers as well when he hit 253 points higher). He's also hitting lefties at a .914 OPS while hitting righties at only .784. Still, there is tremendous value in Posada's bat being in the lineup regardless of who is pitching or the location of the game and the bet here is that the Yankees will try to keep Posada in the lineup but well-rested through DH stints. The biggest problem with this is Posada is not a good career hitter as a DH. As a catcher, he's hit .280/.381/.489 for his career--and as a DH, he's at .220/.341/.352. Some players can't adjust to just playing half the game and a catcher such as Posada who is involved in every pitch thrown would seem to be the most affected by that. And 2010 has been no different as his OPS is 116 points lower when he DHs (which he's done 20 times, the most on the Yankees). If Posada can't find a way to make himself into an effective DH, the Yankees may have some troubles in 2010 and 2011. Best Month: April .310/.394/.638 with 5 HR and 12 RBI.
2. Francisco Cervelli. "The Cisco Kid" had a tremendous start to the season but has since fallen off. He's been pretty good behind the plate and looks like he has a good rapport with the pitchers, but his bat hasn't quite been keeping up. His .266/.338/.333 line and .305 wOBA looks pretty rough after a fast start. His 30 RBIs, however, is quite impressive. His caught stealing rate has also dipped a lot. Last year he threw out an unbelievable 43% of the runners who tried to steal. This year he's at 14%--which is worse than Posada's 19%. I'm not surprised to see Cervelli struggle with the bat, however. He never showed a great bat in the minors (except a brief stint in 2008 at AA) and there was little reason to think that he suddenly would have become a great hitter in the majors. But when Cervelli woke up on May 15th, he had a .415/.483/.528 line and 14 RBI. Since May 15th, he's hit .202/.277/.250 with 16 RBI. And the last month he's been dismal with a .167/.167/.250 line and 1 RBI. The problem really becomes with Cervelli how much Posada can catch. If Jorge can squat more in the second half, then Frankie's issues at catcher don't get shown as much because of the limited amount of PAs. But if Posada were to suffer another injury or will be spending more time at DH, the Yankees may be in trouble having Cervelli playing every day. Though, when you factor in that Jose Molina was a worse hitter, the Yankees are actually improved in 2010 at the backup backstop. Best Month: April .360/.448/.400.

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The Yankee Clipper: The Outfield

As the All-Star break comes to a close, it feels like a good time to review the season so far. We'll try to roll a different one of these out for the next week reviewing the Yankees different positional groups to see how they've performed so far this season. We'll also be reviewing this to see where weaknesses are before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. Let's start out with the outfield:

1. Brett Gardner. One of my favorite players coming into this season has rewarded the Yankees' faith in making him an everyday player. He's hitting a robust .309/.396/.415 and at his current pace would finish the season with 10 HR and almost 50 SB. He's 10th in the AL in runs (56), 5th in OBP (.396), and 4th in SB (25). Baseball-Reference has his defense in left rated as tops in the American League. In my opinion, the best thing about his game is the amount of pitches he sees. He averages 4.58 P/PA which would be the highest average since Rickey Henderson had 4.55 in 1997 (and if you want to read up on the correlation of P/PA and production, I found this Hardball Times piece from 2005). Better yet, FanGraphs says that only 5 players in the Majors swing at less balls outside the strike zone than Gardner--then again, he's also swung at the least amount of pitches inside the strike zone in the Majors and overall meaning he only swings 31.3% of the time (but he makes contact at balls inside the strike zone a league-leading 98.1% of the time when he does swing). FanGraphs tracks Gardner's Wins Above Replacement number at 2.3 which already surpasses his 2009 value and puts him in the top 15 among American League outfielders and Baseball-Reference has Gardner's WAR at 3.4 with would be tied for 6th among all AL positional players (with Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis). Whether it's "Gardner Planted One" (for his Inside-the-Park home run), "Gardy Goes Yardy" (his regular home run call), or "Brett The Jet" (his stolen base call), Gardner has not only turned into an important Yankee regular, but he may be a reason the Yankees second-guess giving big money to Carl Crawford in the off-season. Best Month: June .383/.472/.533.
2. Nick Swisher. I will repeat: the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher for Wilson Betemit. Wow. Swisher came into camp this year in even better shape than last year and it has showed. The Yankees starting rightfielder is having his best Major League season with career highs at every slash (.298/.377/.524) as well as his Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .391 (only Robinson Cano has a better mark. He's projected to have 28 HR, 93 RBI and 72 XBH. And although UZR rates him as a negative defender, he's shown definite improvement in right with both his arm and his glove. His 2.7 WAR in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference means that he's on pace to greatly surpass last year's output. And as shown by his recent All-Star Final Ballot selection, he's having a lot of fun doing it, bringing a loose atmosphere to the clubhouse that the Yankees needed after guys like Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi left. Swisher has moved around in the lineup a lot, hitting 2nd some games and anywhere from 4th to 8th in others--but wherever he's hit in the lineup, he's produced. Although he hasn't walked as much in 2010 (mostly due to who he's had hitting behind him), Swisher has still taken over 18% of his at bats to a full count and done damage when he's gotten there (.554 OBP). Swish has been extra Swishalicous in 2010 and the Yankees can control him for cheap through 2012 (according to Cot's Contracts, signed for bargains of  $6.75 M this year, $9 M in 2011 and a $10.25 M club option in 2012 with a $1 M buyout). Best Month: May .374/.441/.670 with 7 HR. Picture from the New York Daily News

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Yankees Finding Ways To Utilize Open DH Spot

I don't think the Yankees planned to have Nick Johnson miss time. I don't think they got him thinking "hey, he'll probably get injured and open up the DH slot." But while Nick Johnson's injury isn't a good thing for the Yankees, the vacancy in the DH spot has been a positive point at times for the Yankees. With an older team and injuries to key players, the Yankees have needed to use the DH spot to ease players back in the lineup (as they did last night with Alex Rodriguez). Let's take a look at how the DH spot has gone for the Yankees this season.

The graph below from Baseball-Reference shows all the people that have spent time at DH this season for the Yanks:

	Age	G
Nick Johnson	31	19
Jorge Posada	38	14
Juan Miranda	27	7
Marcus Thames	33	7
Mark Teixeira	30	5
Alex Rodriguez	34	4
Derek Jeter	36	3
Nick Swisher	29	2
Robinson Cano	27	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/17/2010.

Jorge Posada has played the most games besides Johnson on this list and for good reason. The 38-year-old would have probably spent a good deal of time at DH anyways due the fact that he can't squat for 162 games, but his foot injury kept him from being the Yankees catcher for quite longer than expected. Posada has historically been a better hitter when he catches and 2010 is no different. A caveat though, Posada's time at DH was spent while he was still pretty injured so the results may have also been hindered by the fact he was not always healthy while DH'ing. His .229/.362/.438 splits in 58 PAs out of the DH slot is not bad as it contains 3 HR in his 11 hits. Joe from FanGraphs wrote about catchers who are good enough to DH back on June 1st, and Posada has given the Yankees a great option of using the better defensive player (Francisco Cervelli) at catcher and preserve Jorge's body while DH'ing. Even now that he's returned behind the plate, I expect that quite a few of Jorge's ABs will come with the other half of the day off.

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The Yankee Clipper: Another Series Win In Beantown

Even though it feels like the Yankees haven't really gotten hot, they have started at an all-time pace. They won their first give series to match the 1926 squad for the best mark in team history. Coming into the series, they had won eight of their first nine series. The last time they had done that was 2003. Now, after taking two of three in Boston, the Yankees have won nine out of their first ten series. The only two Yankees teams to do that? The 1939 team (11 of 12) and the 1928 team (14 of 15). And at 21-9, the Yankees are off to one of the best 30-game starts in the Derek Jeter Era (in 1998 and 2003, the team went 23-7 to begin both seasons). Last year after 30 games the Yankees were 14-16, 5.5 games out of first, and A-Rod had just returned from the DL the game before. So this team is a little bit ahead of last year's pace. Let's talk a little bit about the series that was in Fenway Park this past weekend:

1. Mark Teixeira and A-Rod started to wake up. It was only a matter of time before the middle of the Yankees lineup got rolling. It was this time last year when A-Rod came off the DL so it's really a year since they were this cold. Now they're heating up. Tex had 3 home runs on Saturday (though the last one was off of an outfielder) and A-Rod had a .556/.615/1.000 mark for the weekend at the plate and seemed to look more comfortable at the plate. A-Rod's home run yesterday was number 586 for his career, tying Frank Robinson on the all-time home run list. ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand says this could signal more A-Bombs ahead. Moshe at TYU says they were getting plenty of consistent offense even without those guys. That was, until Robinson Cano stopped hitting in May.
2. The "Sore Four" expands. The Yankees injuries are starting to pile up. Curtis Granderson is out a month. Chan Ho Park hasn't been seen in a month. Nick Johnson is on the DL. Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera are battling issues. Jorge Posada missed a week. A-Rod missed a few games. Alfredo Aceves left Saturday's game with an injury. Robinson Cano left Friday's game with an injury. The wild card for the Yankees was always their health with a veteran team. They've gotten great contributions from guys like Francisco Cervelli and Sergio Mitre helping to fill in for others. But the Yankees need to work on getting guys healthy ASAP and the Post's Joel Sherman writes that these injuries should give the Yankees pause before committing too many more years to older players this off-season.

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The Yankee Clipper: 5 April Surprises

Another series, another series win for the New York Yankees. The Yankees had a chance to sweep this series, but lost the rubber game behind another weak outing from Javier Vazquez (and BP's Jay Jaffe does a great job of breaking down Javy's troubles so far). But they bounced back last night in the rubber game and beat the White Sox 12-3 behind another strong pitching performance from Phil Hughes and some big games from their surprise bats. Let's take a look at some of those early-season surpises so far as we turn the calendar from April to May:

1. Brett Gardner - Patience was a virtue for this gritty, gutsy outfielder. Many fans were clamoring for Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday or Jason Bay to come to the Bronx to play left but the Yankees stuck with Brett Gardner and the results have been excellent so far. And while I thought that Gardner would be fine in leftfield because of his glove (UZR of +20.8 for his career) and his speed, he's so far been showing that given enough playing time, Gardner can impress with his bat. Gardner is 6th in the American League in batting average at .342, 10th in OBP at .415, 9th in runs scored at 18, tied for 9th in wOBA at .411, and 1st in stolen bases at 11 (which leads the Majors and is great in comparison to his one caught stealing). He is now on pace for 80 steals for the season. As the New York Times writes, the most important play in Sunday's win may have been Brett Gardner's infield hit in the second inning which drove in the game's first run. As a bonus, the little guy hit a home run too. Gardner, a slow starter at all levels over his professional career, has come on strong this season with his selectivity with the bat, seeing 4.43 P/PA good for 3rd in the AL. Oh, and those who thought that Gardner should face a strict platoon to guard him against lefties are looking off so far: he's hitting .409 against lefties so far this season. The one cause of concern? Gardner's .381 BAbip may be unsustainable (even with his speed). But so far, it's been a great start for the man who replaced Johnny Damon in left...and now Curtis Granderson in center.
2. Phil Hughes - I want to repeat: my preference of Joba Chamberlain being a starter had nothing to do with Phil Hughes' ability; I really though, eventually, he'd be a solid starter...but even I didn't see this coming. Hughes is becoming everything that the Yankees thought he would when they refused to package him in a deal to get Johan Santana. And after their starts yesterday, the Yankees look somewhat justified--a place that no one thought they'd be after Hughes' dismal 2008. Well he's showed them so far. He's 3-0 so far and looked like an ace. Hughes is 2nd in the AL in ERA (1.44), 3rd in wins (3), 2nd in WHIP (.880), 1st in H/9 (3.600), 9th in K/9 (8.640), 8th in HR/9 (.360), and first--in the majors--with a .122 BA against. Although his FIP (3.13) and xFIP (4.24) show that maybe he's been the bearer of some good luck, Hughes has looked as good as he did in the bullpen last season. You hope that players take bullpen assignments like that as motivation to trust in their stuff and use their fastball to get ahead and Hughes is certainly doing just that so far in 2010.

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Yankees Over/Under: Bullpen, Bench and Coaching Staff

This week we looked at the New York Yankees Starting 9 and their Starting Rotation but now it's time to do the over/unders for their bullpen, coaches, and bench. I'm going to put out the list but I want you to chime in within the comments about where you would bet these will fall in 2010 (again, with details about those numbers in parentheses):

1. Mariano Rivera - 73 regular season innings pitched (his innings have dropped every year since 2004 but 73 was the average amount over the past 6 years)
2. Phil Hughes relief appearances - Joba Chamberlain relief appearances - 0 (so if you subtract one form the other, what will you get? For their careers, this number would be -6)
3. David Robertson - 10 K/9 (he led the league with 13 K/9 last season and has 12 K/9 over his young career)
4. Alfredo Aceves - 80.2 innings of relief (his relief total from 2009)
5. Chan Ho Park - 4.35 ERA (his career ERA)
6. Mark Melancon - 22 games (he had 13 last season)
7. Damaso Marte PA vs. LHB - Damaso Marte PA vs. RHB - 0 (will he be truly used as a lefty specialist in 2010?)
8. Randy Winn - 10 stolen bases (he's averaged 17 a season over his career)
9. Marcus Thames - 7 HR (his low for a season while in Detroit)
10. Francisco Cervelli - 101 PA (his total from last season)

And now a few non-stat related ones:

11. Nick Swisher - 0.5 appearances on the mound (he had a memorable inning in April last season)
12. Francisco Cervelli - 0.5 concussions (let's hope for under here)
13. Joe Girardi - 50 TV shots of him during 2010 looking into his infamous binder
14. Brian Cashman - 3 trades during the season
15. Rob Thomson - 7 runners thrown out at home

Put your thoughts in the comments below. I'll tally up the results and we'll see how we did in October. Thanks for playing!

Picture from the New York Times

Hot Stove Coal: Randy Winn Finalizes One of the Strangest Contracts

Brian Cashman said he had $2 million to spend on a leftfielder and it looks like he will do that one way or another. The report came out today that Winn's contract is only for $1.1 M and with the $900,000 Thames will get if he makes the Major Leagues, that makes $2 M. But if Thames doesn't make the roster, Winn will be able to make $2 M all by himself. How? Let the AP explain:

Randy Winn and the New York Yankees have finalized a $1.1 million, one-year contract.

The outfielder can earn an additional $900,000 in performance bonuses based on plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. He would get $100,000 each for 50, 75 and 100, and $150,000 apiece for 125, 150, 175 and 200.

Winn better hope that he gets lots and lots of ABs against lefties; he has an 82% bonus riding on it. My guess is that Cashman and the Yankees will either see an ability in Randy Winn to hit lefties in Spring Training and if he can, they'll take Winn and Jaime Hoffmann (who makes very little) and if  he can't as they expect, then Thames will come along as a bench bat. This is what we in the financial world call "insurance".

Hot Stove Coal: Yankees Sign Marcus Thames

I knew they weren't done with leftfield. The Yankees have signed outfielder Marcus Thames according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The money has not yet been disclosed but Thames will compete with Jaime Hoffmann for the 5th OF spot on the Yankees. It would make sense to bring in Marcus Thames on a minor league deal or the league minimum and then just to let go of whichever one of Hoffmann and Thames don't make the roster after Spring Training.

Thames was once a Yankees' prospect who hit his first major league home run off of Randy Johnson and was traded for Ruben Sierra (the second time). Now Thames comes back to the place where it all started. Thames is now the third Yankee to be reacquired by the Bronx Bombers this off-season (Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson the other two). Here's what I said about Thames a month ago:

Marcus Thames:

• Pros: Once a Yankee and the Yankees seem to be in the habit of acquiring their former players. Has pop from right side. Has career .845 OPS vs. lefties.
• Cons: Not a good fielder. Has posted a UZR of -16.7 in 1766 innings in LF. His career OBP is .306. .233/.281/.461 against righties make him only a platoon option.  

MLBTradeRumors writes that Thames "hit .263/.326/.541 against lefties over the last three years." Thames would seem to be a good bench bat with some pop who could play in place of Curtis Granderson when the Yankees face a tough lefty. Rebecca at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes says that it's a good time use FanGraphs fancy new splits, though I'm more interested in his righty/lefty ones. And for that reason, this signing makes sense.

Update: Some financial numbers from The New York Post's Joel Sherman via Twitter: @nyp_joelsherman: #Yankees sign Marcus Thames to minor league deal, gets $900,000 if makes team.  That's what I was talking about when I said the Yankees needed some cheap competition for Hoffmann.

Picture from homeruncards.com