Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010

I figured today was a good day to revisit a depressing topic. Last winter we launched into a series looking at the Yankees worst-case scenarios for the 2010 season. I didn't expect it to be as popular as it was but it was copied on Yankees blogs, national baseball blogs and even Red Sox blogs. Our three-part series went into what it would look like if everything went wrong. Well, despite winning the Wild Card and making the American League Championship Series, some of these worst-case scenarios actually came to fruition. Let's look at each of them again and see how close we go to predicting the worst-case scenario, starting with Part 1, "The Starting Lineup":

Jeter smiles but the Cold War was predicted back in February (CBC)

Jorge Posada 
What I said worst-case would look like: "Basically 2008 redux. He played in only 51 games, garnering a measly 195 PAs. The Yankees don't need him to get 545 (a number he reached from 2000-2007) but they need him to hit the mid 400s...Jorgie can't get hurt"

What actually happened: Posada played in 120 games and got 451 PAs which was more than he had logged since 2007. The problem was that he hit like 2008 when he played, putting up a .248/.357/.454 line. He also had injury issues like 2008 with a fractured foot in mid-May and a Baker Cyst behind his knee which kept him from crouching. Worse than his offense was his defense which was so bad the Yankees have informed him he is a designated hitter in 2011. 

Mark Teixeira 
What I said worst-case would look like: "The beginning of [2009]. He can't hit and he's killing the team out there..on May 2nd of [2009], Tex was hitting .182/.354/.338 through 99 PAs"

What actually happened: Well, through 99 PAs in 2010 Tex hit .136/.300/.259 and it took him longer to get out of his slump. He still finished with very good numbers but he didn't come close to hitting his 2009 totals. And an injury during the ALCS ended his playoffs and seemed to deflate the entire Yankees' offense. Teixeira still played great defense and got on base during his slump but it took a while for him to come around while he killed the Yankees from the #3 slot.

Robinson Cano

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An Early Review of the Yankees 2010 Transactions

Yankees fans may have been spoiled by the 2009 season. After missing the 2008 playoffs, Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman went to work on building the 2009 team and added many important pieces including Sergio Mitre, Damaso Marte (a resigning), Andy Pettitte (ditto) Nick Swisher (for basically nothing), A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira. The mid-season trades worked out as well as they acquired Romulo Sanchez (a possible 2010 September call-up if healthy) for a spare part, Eric Hinske for more spare parts, Jerry Hairston, Jr. for yet more spare parts, and then picked up Chad Gaudin and Freddy Guzman during the waiver wire period. Every one of those players contributed in one way or another (except for Sanchez) to the 2009 World Series winning team and Brian Cashman came away looking like a genius who turned everything he touched into gold.

Thames has been Cashman's best off-season move to date (NYDN)

The Midas Touch didn't translate as well to 2010. The Yankees traded Brian Bruney for a Rule 5 draft pick (Jamie Hoffmann). They traded Phil Coke, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson. They signed Nick Johnson, traded and signed a ton of spare outfielders (Reid Gorecki, Greg Golson, Jason Pridie, Chad Huffman, etc.), traded for Javier Vazquez (and Boone Logan), signed Randy Winn, Royce Ring, Dustin Moseley, Marcus Thames, Chad Moeller, and Chan Ho Park. Since the season started they resigned Chad Gaudin, signed Eric Bruntlett and Chad Tracy (the latter which has been released), and traded for Austin Kearns, Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood.

While the 2010 mid-season moves have worked out to date, the off-season moves have not. Hoffmann lasted until March and then they returned him to the Dodgers (despite rumors he would be traded back, he's still with Los Angeles). Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson have all excelled for their new teams, and Granderson has been a huge disappointment for the Yankees*. Nick Johnson (injuries) and Javier Vazquez (ineffectiveness) both have been huge disasters in their return to the Yankees, and although Michael Dunn for Boone Logan is a wash and I don't think Melky Cabrera truly had a place on this team, Arodys Vizcaino (the prospect traded in the deal), dominated the Sally League going 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA, a WHIP under 1, and a SO/BB ratio of 7.33 before being promoted (and remains one of Atlanta's best prospects).

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Late to the Party: My Reaction on a Busy Trade Deadline for the Yankees

I know, I know, I'm late to the party. But after writing a trade deadline wishlist, I was shocked to see the Yankees check off quite a few boxes. While none of the moves guarantees the Yankees a chance at the playoffs (much less the pennant or the World Series), the deadline transactions shows that Brian Cashman is willing to shrewdly work the system towards the Yankees benefit in different ways than they truly have before. Let's take a look at the deadline moves and, putting them in the context of what they improved on, show that while it's not a clear home run for the Yankees, the July 31st moves were clearly a win.

Austin Kearns adds a solid OF bat (ESPN)

Austin Kearns: Probably my favorite move of all just because it fit a need perfectly. Kearns can play all three outfield positions and is extremely solid out there (with a plus arm). He's played most of his career in rightfield where he has a 58.0 UZR in over 6,000 innings, but moved back to leftfield in 2010 for the first time since 2003. After Kearns was a solid hitter from 2000-2007, his hitting dipped to below average numbers for 2008 and 2009 (with much lower BABIPs) and some felt he may be slowing down. But Kearns has been much better in 2010 (though some of that is buoyed by a great start to the season--.689 OPS since May 18th) and the Yankees were looking for a solid right-handed bat off their bench.

Kearns basically replaces Marcus Thames in the field (big win) and Curtis Granderson at bat against lefties (another big win). Kearns has a career OPS of .799 vs. lefties and his .353 wOBA and .383 OBP are exactly what the Yankees need from him when we consider Granderson has given them a .252 OBP, .538 OPS and a woeful .242 wOBA vs. southpaws. The smart move against lefties would be to play Brett Gardner in CF, Kearns in left, and DH Thames (and more on this below). The fear is that Kearns hot start masked a declining player who will flounder playing for his first big-market team--but I don't see that. For what the Yankees need Kearns for (platoon righty and bench bat), Kearns seems to make perfect sense). That he basically replaced Colin Curtis on the roster is a win (despite the fact I like Curtis). And all for the ole PTBNL or cash it was a shrewd and cheap move in what turned into a light outfield market.

Lance Berkman: The Big Puma is no longer and Fat Elvis seems to reign now--but regardless of which nickname you use, Berkman is a player who can certainly help the Yankees down the stretch. With Nick Johnson in a black hole of injury, the Yankees have been working through a platoon of Marcus Thames and Lance Berkman with a few games of Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada in their DH slot. For all intents and purposes, Berkman replaces Miranda on the roster. No matter how much I liked Miranda in the little time I saw of him, this can't be seen as anything but a win. Now it's never as clear cut as that, though. Lance Berkman is not the same guy who finished in the top-5 in MVP voting 4 different years. He's not even close to the player who put up a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) number of 7.5 in 2008 (only Albert Pujols, Chase Utley and David Wright were higher that year). But Berkman is still a premium hitter who knows how to get on base (career OBP of .409). The biggest problem for Berkman has that he's been bad vs. lefties this year (.188/.278/.281 w/ 1 HR) and was not as good away from Minute Maid Park (almost 200 points lower OPS). But the fact that he's going to have Marcus Thames as his right-handed DH caddy and that he's moving to a good hitters park in the Bronx should alleviate some of those concerns--as does his excellent 16.4% BB rate and his top-20 rank in pitcher per plate appearance (4.14) which makes him another patient, dangerous hitter to work through.

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The Yankee Clipper: Catcher and Designated Hitter

So far in our post-All-Star Break Yankee Clipper series we've covered the Yankees' infield and outfield so far in 2010. Now let's take a moment and look at their catchers and DHs. I felt like this went together since Jorge Posada has spent so much time at DH this season. Let's take a look at how these two groups have performed and see if the Yankees may need to make some changes before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline:

1. Jorge Posada. If you were to give Posada's year an overall grade, what would it be? I think it would have to be someplace in the B- range. Since Posada's 6th place MVP finish in 2007 (and subsequent contract extension), the Yankees backstop has missed quite a lot of time with injuries. He played in only 51 games in 2008, 111 games in 2009, but is on pace to play in 134 this season. Posada's value is almost solely in his bat behind the plate (his catching has regressed with age) so when he has to spend a lot of time at DH, it hurts his value somewhat. So far in 2010, Posada has played 36 games at catcher, 20 at DH and 1 at 1B. Those 20 games at DH blow past his previous high of 15 in 2008. Posada's .265/.373/.464 slash line is down from last year or 2007, but some of that could be attributed to trying to play through injuries. His power numbers have suffered as well as his pace of 27 doubles, 20 HR, and 65 RBI would be one of the poorest outputs of a full season in his entire career. According to FanGraphs, Posada is crushing fastballs and hitting sliders well, but any other pitch has been getting him. Posada's home-road splits have been quite pronounced this year as he's hitting exactly 300 OPS points higher in New Yankee Stadium (which reflects last year's numbers as well when he hit 253 points higher). He's also hitting lefties at a .914 OPS while hitting righties at only .784. Still, there is tremendous value in Posada's bat being in the lineup regardless of who is pitching or the location of the game and the bet here is that the Yankees will try to keep Posada in the lineup but well-rested through DH stints. The biggest problem with this is Posada is not a good career hitter as a DH. As a catcher, he's hit .280/.381/.489 for his career--and as a DH, he's at .220/.341/.352. Some players can't adjust to just playing half the game and a catcher such as Posada who is involved in every pitch thrown would seem to be the most affected by that. And 2010 has been no different as his OPS is 116 points lower when he DHs (which he's done 20 times, the most on the Yankees). If Posada can't find a way to make himself into an effective DH, the Yankees may have some troubles in 2010 and 2011. Best Month: April .310/.394/.638 with 5 HR and 12 RBI.
2. Francisco Cervelli. "The Cisco Kid" had a tremendous start to the season but has since fallen off. He's been pretty good behind the plate and looks like he has a good rapport with the pitchers, but his bat hasn't quite been keeping up. His .266/.338/.333 line and .305 wOBA looks pretty rough after a fast start. His 30 RBIs, however, is quite impressive. His caught stealing rate has also dipped a lot. Last year he threw out an unbelievable 43% of the runners who tried to steal. This year he's at 14%--which is worse than Posada's 19%. I'm not surprised to see Cervelli struggle with the bat, however. He never showed a great bat in the minors (except a brief stint in 2008 at AA) and there was little reason to think that he suddenly would have become a great hitter in the majors. But when Cervelli woke up on May 15th, he had a .415/.483/.528 line and 14 RBI. Since May 15th, he's hit .202/.277/.250 with 16 RBI. And the last month he's been dismal with a .167/.167/.250 line and 1 RBI. The problem really becomes with Cervelli how much Posada can catch. If Jorge can squat more in the second half, then Frankie's issues at catcher don't get shown as much because of the limited amount of PAs. But if Posada were to suffer another injury or will be spending more time at DH, the Yankees may be in trouble having Cervelli playing every day. Though, when you factor in that Jose Molina was a worse hitter, the Yankees are actually improved in 2010 at the backup backstop. Best Month: April .360/.448/.400.

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Yankees Finding Ways To Utilize Open DH Spot

I don't think the Yankees planned to have Nick Johnson miss time. I don't think they got him thinking "hey, he'll probably get injured and open up the DH slot." But while Nick Johnson's injury isn't a good thing for the Yankees, the vacancy in the DH spot has been a positive point at times for the Yankees. With an older team and injuries to key players, the Yankees have needed to use the DH spot to ease players back in the lineup (as they did last night with Alex Rodriguez). Let's take a look at how the DH spot has gone for the Yankees this season.

The graph below from Baseball-Reference shows all the people that have spent time at DH this season for the Yanks:

	Age	G
Nick Johnson	31	19
Jorge Posada	38	14
Juan Miranda	27	7
Marcus Thames	33	7
Mark Teixeira	30	5
Alex Rodriguez	34	4
Derek Jeter	36	3
Nick Swisher	29	2
Robinson Cano	27	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/17/2010.

Jorge Posada has played the most games besides Johnson on this list and for good reason. The 38-year-old would have probably spent a good deal of time at DH anyways due the fact that he can't squat for 162 games, but his foot injury kept him from being the Yankees catcher for quite longer than expected. Posada has historically been a better hitter when he catches and 2010 is no different. A caveat though, Posada's time at DH was spent while he was still pretty injured so the results may have also been hindered by the fact he was not always healthy while DH'ing. His .229/.362/.438 splits in 58 PAs out of the DH slot is not bad as it contains 3 HR in his 11 hits. Joe from FanGraphs wrote about catchers who are good enough to DH back on June 1st, and Posada has given the Yankees a great option of using the better defensive player (Francisco Cervelli) at catcher and preserve Jorge's body while DH'ing. Even now that he's returned behind the plate, I expect that quite a few of Jorge's ABs will come with the other half of the day off.

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The Yankee Clipper: The Disappointing Five

On Monday we looked a five April surprises. Today, we'll look at five early-season disappointments. Now for a team that's off to as hot a start as the Yankees, there are few of them. And coming off of another series win, complaining may look petty. But there are some not-so-bright spots and it's worth our while to point them out. First, let's talk about another big series win with the big 3 of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte picking up big wins (and then Andy's injury), Joba getting two saves, and everyone chipping in for big hits. This was a team that was without Jorge Posada, without Mariano Rivera, without Curtis Granderson, and didn't have Joba at their disposal on Wednesday afternoon--and they still were able to sweep an Orioles team that had just swept the Red Sox, themselves. So impressive wins all around and hopefully some momentum coming into Boston this weekend. Without further ado, let's get to the 5 disappointments so far this season:

1. Nick Johnson - The #2 hitter hasn't exactly been "Nick the Stick" so far this season. His .171 average and .314 slugging are pretty putrid. But his OBP is amazingly .396 thanks to 24 walks (2nd in the AL) and leaves his wOBA at a manageable .339. So instead of "Nick the Stick" he's been more like Johnny Walker's motto of "Keep on Walking". Nick is also 3rd in the AL with 4.40 pitches per plate appearance. The problem for Johnson is that while his walks are really high--and he's walking exactly 25% of the time so far this season--his strikeout percentage is the highest of his career at 31.4%. Chris at TYU writes that Johnson may be facing a bit of bad luck and his current BAbip of .217 (his career mark is .309) seems to suggest that's the case. Since he's started growing his mustache, Johnson has hit a bit better. But the struggles don't stop at the Yankees' #2 hitter.
2. Mark Teixeira - Maybe we should get used to slow starts from Tex, but it still doesn't make it any less disappointing. He's hitting a cold .178/.325/.297 with a .295 wOBA, 2 HR (and only 8 XBH total for the guy who tied for the AL home run title last year). His one saving grace is his good defense, which, according to FanGraphs, helps to even out his WAR at ZERO. Yes, zero. His one saving grace on offense has been his 20 walks and his 4.32 pitches per plate appearance (which is a career-high pace and good for 8th in the AL). But if he doesn't start hitting soon, I doubt many will be offering him free passes in front of A-Rod. Speaking of the #4 hitter...
3. Alex Rodriguez - It's amazing that this team could be playing so well with the heart of their lineup at 2, 3 and 4 doing so poorly. Last year, with Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira and A-Rod having huge second halves, that part of the lineup carried the team. A-Rod didn't come back until about this time last year, so in some ways, it's just like 2009. A-Rod's done very little so far. He's actually played good defense according to UZR (1.1 but small sample size, of course) and his .253/.345/.414 line is not horrific...but he's not doing much of anything else. He has 2 HR, his ISO is at a career-low .162 and he has 1 stolen base to his name (he's averaged 20 SB a year with the Yankees). A-Rod has actually struck out at a lower rate than any other time in his career (15.2%) and part of his problems may be bad luck as well (.274 BAbip compared to a career mark of .321). But even with those facts, it's hard to ignore that the hardest hits that A-Rod has had have come from Dallas Braden. 

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The Yankee Clipper: Disappointing Loss

There are games that you should win, and last night was certainly one of those for the Yankees. So why did they come out on the short end? While This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes looks for some rays of sunshine, let's take a look (with A-Rod looking absolutely ridiculous Presidential on the right from ESPN.com):

1. The Yankees bullpen and defense didn't perform. Boone Logan and David Robertson (and to a lesser extent, Alfredo Aceves) just didn't get the job done. Phil Hughes struggled but got through 5 2/3 with a 2-1 lead and turned the ball over to Boone Logan with the lefty, Luke Scott, up at the plate. Logan promptly walked him. Robertson came on to face Wigginton who he hit (on an 0-2 pitch). He then allowed three straight RBI singles to Rhyne Hughes (rookie), Nolan Reimold (struggling), and Caesar Izturis (just bad) before finally striking out Adam Jones.  As the Post's Joel Sherman writes, the Yankees bullpen is a little bit of a mess in front of Mo. Ben from River Ave Blues breaks down the Boone Logan decision.
2. The bullpen was bad, but the Yankees' defense didn't help them out. Aceves' run could have been prevented but bad defense by Derek Jeter (error to lead off inning) and Jorge Posada (who sailed a throw down to second into CF) but Caesar Izturis (Yankee killer) made it 5-2. Randy Winn also had a chance to throw out Luke Scott at the plate in the 6th but ended up throwing the ball straight into the ground (a la Todd Zeile in the 1996 ALCS).
3. The Yankees base-running was atrocious--and hurt them. Jorge Posada hit a home run but had a tough game defensively and running the bases. In the 6th inning, Posada was caught straying too far off second base (where the heck was he going) and Miguel Tejada easily threw over to get Jorge. Posada is not a good baserunner and this is not the first time a base-running gaffe of his hurt the Yankees.  Another bad baserunner on the Yankees is Robinson Cano who somehow thinks he's a base stealer just because he's a middle infielder. Well Cano got caught at second and ended a potential rally. NoMass has a memo to Cano to stop attempting steals.

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The Yankee Clipper: A-Rod Disses Dallas

Not exactly Debbie Does Dallas, but because A-Rod is involved, there's just as much controversy. The Yankees take their 5th series to start a season matching the 1926 squad and two wins in Los Angeles this week would set a new franchise record. Before we get there, let's look at the series that was:

1. A-Rod vs. Dallas Braden. Here's my quick opinion: Dallas Braden was wrong and A-Rod was wrong in how he responded to it. As far as A-Rod's controversies go, this ranks pretty low on the list. Everyone weighed in: The New York Times' Ben Shpigel (picture to the right from that article), ESPN's Wallace Matthews, LoHud's Sam Borden, HarballTalk's Craig Calcaterra, River Ave Blues' Mike Axisa, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal (with a quote from Tim McCarver), Mark Feinsand of the Daily News, TonyBlogs, the Posts's Joel Sherman (who made an unfunny joke), and Jay from Fack Youk (who weighed in on everyone weighing in). Twitter users oh_gee_en and LadyBlueICU came up with funny pictures. 'Duk from Big League Stew summed it up nicely: "You can read more of [what Braden and A-Rod said] at MLB.com or listen to his interview at the LoHud Yankees Blog....On one hand, it's nice for A's fans to see that one of their young guns won't cede any ground or be intimidated by one of the best players on the defending world champs...But on the other, there's something to be said for knowing your spot in the game and earning enough capital to call out a perennial All-Star over something so petty." ESPN's Rob Neyer adds another layer to it: "There's something odd about this, though: The inning was over. Braden wasn't on the mound anymore. It wasn't his mound."
2. Oh, by the way, the Yankees turned a triple play yesterday (no, not that triple play or that triple play). According to John and Suzyn, it was the first triple play turned by the Yankees in a long time. According to the broadcast team, the last one was June 3rd, 1968: Dooley Womack to Bobby Cox to Mickey Mantle ("yes that Bobby Cox and yes that Mickey Mantle"). More than 6600 games ago. I saw one in person last year (unassisted) when the Mets had one turned on them in Citi Field (DJ AM threw out the first pitch that game, sadly enough). It's a really cool feat. Too bad they couldn't follow it up with a win. Quick side note: I also got to hear Suzyn say during the broadcast: "Isn't texting just the best thing in the world." Ummm...

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The Yankee Clipper: 1926

If you're wondering why I put 1926 in the title, it's because 1926 was the last time the Yankees won their first four series before this year. That Yankees team led by Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig would go on to win another series (their 5th in a row to begin the season) on their way to winning the American League pennant. The following year was the most famous as the 1927 Yankees went 110-44, but the 1926 Yankees may have had a hotter start. Let's get to the top 5:

1. The Yankees now head out West and Javier Vazquez looks for his first win tonight. 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and a ton of boos was not the way that Javy wanted to start his second go-around with the Yankees. The good part for Vazquez is that he now gets two starts on the road before he needs to pitch again in front of the Yankee Stadium crowd. The bad part for Vazquez is that he needs to pitch well in these starts before he pitches again the White Sox next week or it won't be pretty.
2. Vazquez is the only Yankee starter not to win a game--the rest of the Yankees staff looks great. It's only three starts in (for the top 3), but let's just say that none of their top 3 looked this good last season and the Yankees won 103 games. CC Sabathia is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, and has struck out 18 (to only 4 walks), A.J. Burnett is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and has struck out 13, and Andy Pettitte looks great with a 2-0 record, 1.35 ERA, 14 Ks and a team-high 20 IP. With Phil Hughes pitching well in his first start as well, this is a great start for a rotation that came in with some question marks. In ESPN's Cy Young Predictor (not really looking at the award, but more for the factors that go into this), the top 3 are all in the top-7 of AL starters and only Matt Garza tops Pettitte.
3. The lineup as a whole, has been on a roll, too. If you figure that a good hitter will have a wOBA above .350, then the Yankees are chock full of good hitters early on according to FanGraphs. Jorge Posada leads all regulars with a .505 wOBA (Marcus Thames and Francisco Cervelli are a bit higher in more limited playing time) and Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, and Brett Gardner are all over .400. The Yankees middle of their defense--Posada (.378/.465/.730, 3 HR), Cano (.340 average, 4 HR, 10 RBI), Jeter (.380/.404/.600 3 HR), and Granderson (.311/.380/.578, 2 HR, 4 SB)--are off to great starts. Even Brett Gardner is looking like Ichiro with infield hits and 7 stolen bases and guys like Cervelli, Thames and Pena are coming off the bench and getting big hits for the Yankees.
4. Even their struggling players have silver linings. Nick Johnson is struggling to get hits with a .158 average but leads the AL in walks with 14 and has a .407 OBP. Nick Swisher has struggled a bit early on but has seen 4.16 P/PA which is 7th in the AL. A-Rod's power hasn't taken off yet, but he's batting .295/.415/.523 and has a .406 wOBA. Mark Teixeira is having another atrocious April at the bat but he's flashing the leather yet again. And when they all start hitting, this lineup is going to be treacherous to navigate.
   

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The Yankee Clipper: Game 2

I have to admit, most of my time was spent last night watching LOST and some of my sports watching was split between the Yankees/Red Sox and the Rangers. But that doesn't mean I can't give you a Yankee Clipper for Game 2:

1. I'm sure you've heard by now of Big Papi's big, expletive-laced tirade. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston has some more information. Matt at Fack Youk thinks he may have justifiably been upset since we are two games into the season and he's already getting questions about his production. Craig Calcaterra at HardballTalk agrees with Matt. I'm OK with Papi being upset about being questioned this early in the season, but the dude is playing in one of the biggest baseball media markets and reaped a lot of good will form the writers when his career was going well. He can't now turn to the same people and mouth off just because they have to fill a newspaper column. That's unfair.
2. Also unfair is claiming that Joba Chamberlain has been magically healed by the bullpen gods because he pitched well last night and pumped his fist (*cough* Wallace Matthews). We'll never know now if he could have done this as a starter in the rotation, but those same people weren't texting me on Sunday night and saying that Joba's "bullpen mentality" wasn't working that night. I'm rooting for him to do well in this role--I really am--but I'm not going to engage in selective celebrations of success. We can collectively fist pump if Phil Hughes pitches well in the 5th role and the Yankees get to the playoffs at the end of the year. I can't say I didn't love the fist pump (I did one at home), but let's all settle down a bit (picture to the right from the ESPN New York article)
3. Nick Johnson's walk. Sometimes the biggest hit of the game is not a hit at all. If you want to see a reason we got Nick Johnson, that was it. Like Giambi, because of his eye Johnson is one of those guys who is sometimes does more damage with a walk than with a hit. It's not the most fun baseball, but it's what puts runs on the board and marks in the win column. As Mike from River Ave Blues wrote, Nick Johnson's biggest swing came with the bat on his shoulder.
4. Nick Swisher's patience. Pitchers will hate both of the "Nicks" in the Yankees lineup of 2010. Swishalicous saw 30 pitches last night. The best AB was 8 pitches against Manny Delcarmen. He doubled at the end of the at-bat and even though he didn't score, the amount of pitches he saw effects the game and the rest of the series. Maybe Delcarmen is unavailable tonight because of the toll he took last night. That's a victory in and of itself.
5. Robinson Cano's power. When Cano is on with the bat, he has such a sweet swing. This is a guy who could win a batting title and maybe vie for an MVP award if he kept focused all season. His blast to rightfield last night continued to show that. Focus, Robby, focus.

Final Thoughts: Other aspects I didn't talk about? Jorge and AJ doing fine as battery mates (we can stop that chatter for now), Alfredo Aceves doing really well out of the bullpen (I think that will be a big factor), and Marco Scutaro's error (is their a Red Sox curse for not resigning Orlando Cabrera?). 1-1 record and going for the series win tonight. Good start to the season. I just love having baseball back as the weather continues to get nicer.

Should We Read More Into Today's Yankees Starting Lineup?

Brett Gardner in center. Nick Johnson hitting 2nd. Robinson Cano hitting 5th. Nick Swisher hitting 8th. A while back we debated the Yankees starting lineup but now it seems to be coming to some sort of conclusion. As Chad Jennings of The LoHud Yankees Blog wrote, today's lineup looks like the expected Opening Day lineup:

1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Nick Johnson DH
3. Mark Teixeira 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Robinson Cano 2B
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Curtis Granderson LF
8. Nick Swisher RF
9. Brett Gardner CF

Two big observations there: the Yankees have faith in Cano turning around his putrid RISP numbers from last year (and, let's all admit, it might just have been bad luck) and the Yankees have more faith in Gardner playing center than Granderson. As I've said, I don't usually put a lot of stock in what goes on in Spring Training but when Ben pointed out to me that Granderson looked awful in CF, it worried me a bit. Maybe it worried the Yankees too. Leftfield at Yankee Stadium is a hard position to man so having Granderson play there is not a large knock on his abilities. And if the small sample size we have of Brett Gardner holds, this will actually make the Yankees (marginally) better defensively.

Nick Johnson hitting in the two-hole is not a surprise. Although some feel that he will "clog up the bases", I rather a guy clog up the bases by getting on base 4 out of 10 times than one who speeds through the bases 3 out of ten times. If Johnson can stay healthy, the top 4 of that lineup is probably the best in baseball. I thought that Swisher may hit a little higher in the lineup, but I don't think his hitting 8th is truly a reflection of his ability. I think, rather, it's a reflection of how deep the Yankees lineup is. I wonder if, by season's end, the Yankees will have moved him up a bit, though.

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Yankees Over/Under: Starting 9 Hitters

I thought it would be fun to do Over/Under for the Yankees to see where people predict people will end up by the end of the year. So I'll put out a list of over/under numbers and you'll put your predictions in the comments below. Let's start out with the Yankee starting 9 hitters:

1. Curtis Granderson - 30 HR (his career high set last year)
2. Jorge Posada - 111 games (the amount he played in last season)
3. Mark Teixeira - 35 HR, 114 RBI (his career average)
4. Robinson Cano - .365 OBP (career high set in 2006)
5. Derek Jeter - 200 hits (a benchmark we seem to have for him every season)
6. Alex Rodriguez - 30 HR and 100 RBI (numbers he's hit every year since 1998)
7. Nick Swisher - 8 HR at home (his odd number from last season)
8. Brett Gardner - 39 SB (his career SB total)
9. Nick Johnson - 438 PAs (his average plate appearances since he left New York)

And now a few non-stat related ones:

10. Nick Johnson - 1.5 trips to the disabled list
11. Kate Hudson - 0.5 times on TV at a Yankee game this season rooting on A-Rod
12. Derek Jeter - 0.5 pies in the face after game-winning hit (he had none last year)
13. Jorge Posada - 25 games caught for his buddy, A.J. Burnett
14. Derek Jeter - 0.5 engagements
15. Nick Swisher - 2 hairstyles 

So what do you think? Put your answers in the comments below and pick an over/under for whichever ones you want. The next group we'll go with are the pitchers so stay tuned.

Picture from the New York Daily News

Hot Stove Coal: Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon Saw a Whole Lot of Fastballs in 2009

The Yankees #1-#4 in their lineup last year was one of the best parts of their team. Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez helped to fuel the Yankees potent offense as each enjoyed good seasons. The success of this part of the lineup only took off, however, when A-Rod came off the disabled list. He provided protection for Teixeira who started to hit, and Teixieira in turn provided protection for Damon who started to hit, and Damon then did the same for Jeter. Today Buster Olney produced an interesting list on ESPN.com from Inside Edge on the player whose preceding batter received the most fastballs in 2009 (also known as the players who provided the best protection). Here was the top of the list:

1. Adam Jones: 73.7 percent
2. Denard Span: 73.3 percent
3. Joe Mauer: 71.9 percent
4. Mark Teixeira: 71.3 percent
5. Johnny Damon: 71.3 percent
6. Dustin Pedroia: 71.3 percent
7. David Wright: 71.1 percent

As you can see, two Yankees are in the top 5 and if you take the normal Yankee order, that means that #1 and #2 in the Yankees 2009 order each received about 71.3% fastballs when they batted. But was that because of the protection they received or how they hit fastballs? Let's take a look (stats from FanGraphs, knuckleball data excluded since hitters see it very little):

Derek Jeter: 64.1% Fastballs in 2009, 10.1% BB%
Career runs above average/100 pitches on Fastball: 0.98
2009 runs above average/100 pitches on Fastball: 1.61
Best runs above average/100 pitch for career: Split-fingered Fastball (2.47)
Best runs above average/100 pitch for 2009: Curveball (3.67)

Johnny Damon: 64.8% Fastballs in 2009, 11.3% BB%
Career runs above average/100 pitches on Fastball: 0.75
2009 runs above average/100 pitches on Fastball: 0.53
Best runs above average/100 pitch for career: Curveball (1.85)
Best runs above average/100 pitch for 2009: Cutter (4.09)

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Hot Stove Coal: Nick Johnson is a Weapon Against Lefites Too

Over lunch today I was reading through Steven Goldman's Pinstriped Bible as he was going "to the mats with reader comments". Goldman was talking about the Yankees left-field platoon options and said this:

The defensive issue may not even matter if the Yankees are willing to bench Nick Johnson against some southpaws—your Gomes or Thames takes over at DH and Gardner plays defense.

That sentence didn't do well for my lunch. Now I'm a big fan of Goldman but I've disagreed with him at times in the past. But generally I find his writing to be of my liking and I agree with him most of the time (translation: he's a smart dude). This, though, bothers me.

The Yankees should never sit Johnson against a southpaw because he's left-handed. Ever. Now Johnson will not DH every day. A-Rod will need to DH at least once a week. Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Mark Texeira and others may need the DH spot from time-to-time as well. So Johnson will not be playing 162 games, even if healthy.

But the games he doesn't play should not be replaced by Johnny Gomes or Marcus Thames or really anyone. Why? Because Nick Johnson is really good against lefties. Nick Johnson's career slashes against righties are .266/.394/.450. Against lefites they look even better .292/.424/.438. If you take out intentional walks, his BB/KK ratio is actually (slightly) better against lefties as well.

And if you look at the seasons in which Johnson's logged at least 150 PAs vs. lefties, it opens the argument up even more. In 2005, 2006 and 2009, Johnson had at least 150 PA vs. lefties and in each of those three seasons he ranked in the top 6 in the league in OBP vs. lefties. In those three seasons, only one other lefty (Travis Hafner in 2006) even ranked in the top 9 in OBP vs. lefties.

Those three years happen to be the only ones where Johnson logged over 450 PA, but it's not the only time he's had success getting on base vs. lefties. As the below graph from FanGraphs shows, he's been pretty proficient at hitting both lefties and righties (with 2008 being the one big outlier in my argument, but he only played in 38 games--a small sample size).

Since OBP isn't all of it, let's look at the OPS differences those 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. Johnson's OPS was 206 points higher against lefties in 2004, 40 points higher in 2005, and 74 points higher in 2009. In 2006 in was 24 points lower, but he managed a very nice .938 OPS vs. lefties regardless*. But since wOBA has replaced OPS in my way of thinking, let's look at that split on FanGraphs:

*Side Note: Let's be honest: there aren't many "tough lefties" to worry about Yankee hitters facing. Jon Lester is the big one and Cliff Lee they may see once or twice. Mark Buehrle is 1-6, with a 6.43 ERA against the Yankees and his teammate, John Danks, has a 6.06 ERA. CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte are going to be in Pinstripes. So who are they so worried about facing?

As you can see from this graph, Johnson has been at least equally as good, if not a better hitter vs. lefties. But the point is that Johnson is a really good hitter no matter whoever he faces. Bill James projects for Johnson in 2010 to put up slashes of .277/.414/.434 and a wOBA of .375. Johnny Gomes has only once put up a wOBA of more than that amount (.385 in 2005). Marcus Thames has never done that. In fact, you can see the three players' wOBA comparisons throughout their careers in the next FanGraphs graph (with the blue line representing league average):

Now I know this is an overall wOBA number (you can't compare the split numbers, unfortunately) and I know Goldman is not saying that Gomes or Thames should be DH'ing vs. righties, but the point is that it makes no sense to sit Nick Johnson vs. lefties just so you can get a righty at DH and put Brett Gardner in the OF. The point of having a right-handed caddy for Gardner (or Curtis Granderson) would be to sit Gardner/Granderson vs. lefties, not play them and sit someone else who actually can hit lefties.

The Yankees would be much better off putting Gardner/Granderson in LF/CF and playing Johnson. Or, if they decide to employ the platoon in left (which is fine), they just need to make sure that doesn't effect Johnson. I know Johnson has had injury problems throughout his career, but if he's healthy, he should be in the lineup almost every day, whether a righty or lefty is pitching.

Hot Stove Coal: Nick Johnson Close to Being a Yankee Again

The last piece to the Yankees' off-season puzzle seems like it won't be Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, or Vlad Guerrero. The Yankees are going back to a player they once had come up through their system: Nick "The Stick" Johnson.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff is reporting that Johnson has a deal in place for 1 year, $5.5 million pending a physical. Now, while "pending a physical" with Johnson is a big deal, this deal seems all but done. So what does this mean for the Yankees and was this a good deal? Let's look at what Johnson brings to the table.



As you can see, Johnson's biggest selling point isn't durability. He's only reached 450 PA three times in his career and missed an entire season. He's not exactly RonDL White, but he's close. That being said, Johnson has played his entire career as a first baseman. He had two ill-advised forays into the outfield in 2002 but otherwise, the only other "position" he's played is 89 games at DH while with the Yankees. And as LoHud's Chad Jennings pointed out, Johnson's primary position being DH may limit his injury risk since most of his injuries occurred while in the field.

Johnson's biggest asset right now is his OBP. Johnson has a .402 career OBP which is 9th among active players. 8th on the list is Bobby Abreu, a person who the Yankees hope will emulate in his Yankee hitting. Abreu averaged .295/.378/.465 with the Yankees with 95 doubles, 43 HR, 243 RBI, 190 BB, and a 120 OPS+ over 2 plus seasons in the Bronx. The Yankees could deal with that average of production, though with less Ks and less HRs. And less HRs is probably what you're getting from Johnson as River Avenue Blues points out that his ISO has fallen greatly in recent years.

Johnny Damon would have been a better option--if the price was right. I think that Damon for more than 2 years or more than $13 million a year is way too much. Damon's appeal was in his flexibility of being able to play left as well as DH. Johnson is blocked at 1st base by Mark Teixeira so Johnson's role is either the DH, 1st base when Tex has a day off on the field, or the bench when Jeter or A-Rod need a day at the DH spot.

The Yankees wanted to have flexibility and this is a different type of flexibility. Instead of having the flexibility of being able to play left and DH, the Yankees will have the flexibility of having a good player on a one-year, low-priced contract. If Jesus Montero continues to develop or Nick Johnson does not play well, the Yankees can dump Nick Johnson and not take a large financial hit. Johnson will also be 31 next season while Damon will be 36.

Which brings us to the bigger theme. While the Yankees continually try to get better, they also try to get younger. Like Cameron learned all too well in Ferris Bueller's Day Off, you can't turn back the odometer. Instead of trying to reverse the ages of their aging stars (Jeter, A-Rod, Pettitte, Rivera, Posada, etc.), the Yankees are trying to inject some new (read: youthful) players in their absence. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and in are two new left-handed batters: Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson.

Let's look at the comparison with 2009 numbers:

#2 Hole:

• 2009: Johnny Damon, 36. .282/.365/.489, 36 2B, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 12 SB, 0 CS, 71 BB, 98 K, 126 OPS+, $13MM
  
• 2010: Nick Johnson, 31. .291/.426/.405, 24 2B, 8 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS, 99 BB, 84 K, 122 OPS+, $5.5MM

#5/6 Hole:

• 2009 Hideki Matsui, 36. .274/.367/.509, 21 2B, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS, 64 BB, 75 K, 131 OPS+, $13MM
• 2010 Curtis Granderson, 29. .249/.327/.453, 23 2B, 30 HR, 71 RBI, 20 SB, 6 CS, 72 BB, 141 K, 100 OPS+, $5.5MM

Could the Yankees have resigned Matsui instead of Johnson for $1MM more? Sure. But I think the Yankees got as much as they could get from Matsui last year and feel more confident in a younger, more OBP-conscious Johnson. Nick Johnson's OBP was third to Joe Mauer (AL MVP) and Albert Pujols (NL MVP) and fits great into that second hole in front of the big bats. Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out that Johnson saw more pitches than even Nick Swisher last season and killed lefties--two important factors if you're going to be part of this Yankees offense. The speed you lose with Damon (and it was diminishing judging by the fact he only had 12 SB last year), you gain with Granderson (who may be given the green light more in the Bronx). You also have to figure that Granderson and Johnson are both due for bumps in their offensive numbers moving from pitching-friendly parks to one of the more hitter-friendly parks (especially for left-handed hitters) out there. Would they have been a better team with Damon this year? Probably. But I think that two and three years down the line, that contract would have been a mistake. And with the Giants very interested in Johnson, the Yankees didn't have time to wait for Damon and his agent, Scott Boras, to play their game and try to drum up interest.

Could the Yankees still go out and sign Damon, Matt Holliday or Jason Bay to play left? Sure. But I don't see it happening. I think the Yankees are OK with Melky Cabrera manning left (or Brett Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF), even though Steven Goldman of Pinstriped Bible doesn't seem to like that equation. The Yankees are looking ahead to the much more attractive free agent class of 2011 (Joe Mauer, Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, etc.) and will look to spend their money again there. I think the group of players you see now is more or less what you will see come opening day (with one more starting pitcher and maybe a bullpen arm to add). And I think the Yankees, even losing their World Series MVP and their World Series stealing hero are better off than they were yesterday if they complete this signing. Like adding Nick Swisher last year, it's not a deal that makes you excited with anticipation, but I think Yankee fans will come around when they see Nick "The Stick" back in Pinstripes in 2010.