Two Yankee Prospect Busts From the Last Regime

A few weeks back Ben wrote a guest post on LoHud about Yankee prospects and how Brian Cashman made the right decision on so many of them with when to keep them and when to trade them away. I have always thought this was a combination of dumb luck (how many times did guys almost get traded but by sheer luck didn't) and good internal prospect evaluation. Cashman is hoping to use that combination to make the right decisions with all the young pitchers and catchers the Yankees are trying to develop in their minor league system.

Source: Baseball Almanac

But before Brian Cashman arrived on the scene, the Yankees had a few guys who were flat out busts. There are famous ones like Brien Taylor, but there are a ton of other guys who just never made the cut after the Yankees hype machine touted them as top prospects. Two of those guys made Steven Goldman's Baseball Prospectus post of the worst prospect busts in baseball. Let's take a look at what he had to say about Hensley "Bam-Bam" Meulens and Ruben Rivera:

Hensley Meulens, 3B, Yankees
Free Agent, 1985
Now the Giants hitting coach, “Bam-Bam” was once going to be a star in the Big Apple. the right-handed-hitting third baseman had tremendous power at a very young age, hitting approximately .300/.377/.558 with 28 home runs in the Carolina League at age 20, but he had problems making contact and couldn’t field. Despite these flaws, the Yankees pushed him hard and fast, not really noticing that he didn’t hit or field as they pushed him up the ladder. Finally, after a failed major-league audition in 1989, he got back on the prospect track at Triple-A, hitting .285/.376/.510 with 26 home runs as a 23-year-old while primarily playing left field. This was the first positive thing he had done in some time, and it earned him both a recall (successful) and a full season in the majors in 1991 (not). Back in Columbus in 1992, the now-25-year-old hit .275/.352/.481 with 26 home runs, but also struck out 168 times. The Yankees were largely done with him, and he had just 44 major-league plate appearances remaining. He finished his career at .220/.288/.353 in 182 games. For more, see my profile of Meulens from last fall.

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Hot Stove Coal: All About Rule 5

The last time the Yankees had the first pick in a draft (any draft) they selected a pitcher named Brien Taylor. Let's just say Taylor ended up being the arm that changed the Major League [Rule 4] draft. Well the Yankees once again had [rights to] the first pick yesterday in the Rule 5 draft. Who they were going to take was a secret for many days, and in the end the pick surprised many. Did the Yankees do well? Let's take a look.

First off, let me say that it's rare that team finds a real gem in the Rule 5 draft, but it does happen. Johan Santana, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, and Shane Victorino were all Rule 5 selections (and Victorino was actually selected twice). The key to the Rule 5 draft is to find a guy you have a spot for on your roster and find a way to keep him there the whole year. The Yankees usually don't have that type of spot and that's why the only pick they've made in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft since 1997 was Josh Phelps, who besides one memorable home run against Joe Borowski, wasn't all that memorable.

Let's just say that leading up to the draft, no one saw this pick coming. MLB.com listed 20 potential draft choices and none of them were the guy the Yankees took. Pending Pinstripes thought the Yankees would pick a pitcher after trading Ian Kennedy, Brian Bruney and Phil Coke. LoHud's Chad Jennings talked about the popular rumor that the Yankees would get back their own exposed Rule 5 player, LHP Zach Kroenke, but had a few other possibilities as well. River Avenue Blues listed some candidates as well as did IIATMS. But in the end, the Yankees took none of the guys on any of those lists.

As NYP's Joel Sherman first revealed 17 minutes before the draft, the Yankees selected 6'3", 235 lbs, former Carolina Hurricaines draft pick, and right-handed hitting OF Jamie Hoffmann. Baseball America has a little more:

Hoffman has major league experience and tools, and at 25, he's still got room to improve. He hit .291/.390/.466 between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Albuquerque, and went 4-for-22 with a homer in 14 big league games. He's a career .285/.357/.407 hitter in 2,428 at-bats since singing as a nondrafted free agent in August, 2003.

"He's a big, physical outfielder with big league experience," said Yankees pro scouting director Billy Eppler. "Our scouts saw some good things in him, including good defensive ability and a good arm. He runs well for his size, we've got him as a 55 runner at 6-foot-3, 235. Kevin Long, our hitting coordinator, looked at him on video and thinks there's a foundation there hitting-wise."

Now let's hope that Kevin Long didn't add that he can fix his swing in 15 minutes a la Rick Peterson talking about Victor Zambrano with the Mets. But it seems like there is a good background there. Chad Jennings has a bigger background on him including some interesting facts about why he was available. Pending Pinstripes has some details on Hoffmann (and some more here). River Avenue Blues does a prospect profile and The Times-Tribune has some YouTube Video for him.

So where does Hoffmann fit in with the Yankees? Well, he was great against left-handed pitching last year and can be seen as the right-handed caddy for Curtis Granderson, a player they can obtain for that role without giving up prospects or signing a guy to a lot of money. Hoffmann is also a good defensive player who will compete for a backup OF role with Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera and give the Yankees the option of trading either one of their incumbent CFs for a more valuable prospect (even though Baseball Analysts ridiculously thinks that Brett Garnder shouldn't be an employed Major League player). And if Hoffmann doesn't work out? The Yankees' investment is minimal.

Now many were disappointed with this pick for the Yankees. The Yankees lost 5 pitchers this week--Bruney, Coke, Kennedy, as well as Kroenke and Kanekoa Texeira in the Rule 5 draft (though Texeira may be returned as U.S.S. Mariner surmises)--and many thought they'd select a pitcher to replace them. Others thought they should shoot for the moon and take a player with great upside. But with the fact the player picked has to stick on the Major League Roster, and with the knowledge that the Yankees don't usually carry around extra guys on the roster who need time to develop, this was a good, safe pick for the Yankees. And the best part in my mind about Hoffmann is that he's still developing and has a chance to be much more than he's shown due to his early career being split between hockey and baseball. I'm sure the Yankees are curious to see how he develops concentrating full-time on baseball. At the worst, they return Hoffmann to the Dodgers. At the best, they found themselves a good, cheap backup OF who should be an important player on the 2010 Yankees.

End of the Week Article Roundup (and new poll)

Links here! Get your links here! Check out these nice hot links (while we ponder how much one should bid for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman on the right).

• Joe Posnanski gives him 2010 Hall of Fame thoughts for his blog and then for Sports Illustrated. I have to say that I'm underwhelmed by all the candidates. I just can't see how Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, or Fred McGriff are Hall of Famers (nor do I see Tim Raines as one as Rob Neyer does). I could see Roberto Alomar on that list because he truly was one of the greatest 2nd basemen in history (which, yes, is different than being one of the best DHs in history). If I had a vote, I may just vote for Alomar (and maybe Mark McGwire) or no one at all. Then again, since Jim Rice is in the Hall now, I think the standards have been lowered quite a bit. The Seattle Times goes through the Veteran's Committee candidates and they are pretty slim picking also. Hall of Fame voters, you don't have to elect someone just because someone hands you a ballot. As Jon Heyman's list shows, there will be plenty of Yankees to elect in the future.
  

• Chad Jennings has some great stuff over on the LoHud blog on the Yankees Rule 5 draft prospects: the first part here, second part here, and final thoughts here. River Avenue Blues also gives their thoughts. My feelings? Some fans get way to into it since it very, very rarely produces a guy like Johan Santana. I think it's a good way to fill out a team cheaply, but I'm not sure you're going to find a franchise player there very often. If you want more information about the Yankees prospects, Fangraphs does a quick minor league review.
  

• What teams should be more concerned about is Type A and B free agents. As Buster Olney points out, that affects a lot of the things that teams will do in regards to offering arbitration and signing certain players. Think that is insignificant? Look back at the players that the Red Sox got for the Mets signing Pedro Martinez or the Yankees got for the Phillies signing Tom Gordon because of the extra draft picks and tell me that's not significant. 

• Joel Sherman says that the Yankees are plotting to keep Damon, Matsui and Pettitte (echoed by Jon Heyman). I think this is a mistake; although it's a formula that works, you need to go out there and get younger and continue to get better to compete with the Rays, Red Sox and the rest of the American League. One reason, as Ken Rosenthal points out, that the Yankees won the World Series is that they got smart. No reason to get dumb now. That includes not trading for Derek Lowe or singing Johnny Damon for 3 or 4 more years as Jon Heyman mentions both. How about one more World Series wrap or some more information on John Wetteland's persona?
  

• Joe Cada got extremely lucky on his way to become the youngest-ever World Series of Poker main event winner (pocket 3s and 2s against much better hands is luck). His luck netted him $8.5 million, but The Detroit News writes that just the beginning of the party and the perks and the money. It's amazing to see how much will be thrown Cada's way. Nice life.

• ESPN must love the World Series of Poker, but as Street & Smith's Sports Business Journal writes, not many are making a challenge to the love that ESPN is getting on all their sports. The Sports Business Journal does go deeper into the league-owned networks and lists them among the possible competition for ESPN--though also listing FX and Versus sort of makes me think that ESPN can rest easy.

• Lastly: SportsbyBrooks has an incredible story of a 22-year-old who tried to relive his high school glory days by going back to high school and posing as a younger person. FanGraphs has a fun game to play in the offseason with a friend or two (H/T Rob Neyer). USA Today says LeBron may change numbers. A back-to-the-future look at Mike Tyson from Sports Illustrated. A funny take on that female soccer player from New Mexico that went beserk. And Mike Francesca and Jay-Z from Tirico Suave.

We have a new poll question up on the right, go vote (H/T Doug)!

ESPN Insider Looks At Yankees 1st Round Pick

Slade Heathcott

CF | Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas Weight: 196 lbs. Height: 6-1

Selected by: Yankees Round: 1 PK(OVR): 29(29)

Summary: Heathcott has first-round tools, but lack of polish and some questions about him off the field have pushed him down into the second/third-round range. Heathcott is a tremendous athlete, a plus runner with good bat speed and a strong build that should lead to average power down the road. His swing is rough, as he bars his front arm and drags the bat through the zone, which limits his ability to square up balls if he doesn't recognize pitches very early. His front side is a little soft as well. He has the speed to play a plus centerfield and has plenty of arm strength, but could use work on his reads on flyballs. He's probably going to be a slow developer in pro ball, but the upside is an impact power/speed bat in centerfield.

Player Grades
	PRESENT	FUTURE
Hitting	35	45
Power	45	55
Plate Discipline	40	45
Running Speed	65	65
Fielding Range	50	60
Arm Strength	60	60
Feel for Game	40	45

Yahoo! Sources: Giants Expected To Land Edwards

Somehow missed this story earlier, but it seems like Braylon Edwards may be a Giant before the NFL draft. They won't be giving up Steve Smith, instead Domenik Hixon will go in the trade. I think they'll miss him on special teams, and I know Edwards has suffered from the dropsies but if this deal is in front of you, I think the New York Football Giants need to do it. Thoughts?

Which NBA draft was better: 1984 or 2003?

This debate won't be over for some time. 1984 was the last draft before the lottery was instituted. 2003 was the last draft before they eliminated high school players going straight to the pros. His Airness vs. King James. 'Melo vs. Sir Barkley. D-Wade vs. Stockton. Bosh vs. The Dream. Alvin Robertson, Otis Thorpe, and Kevin Willis vs. David West, Josh Howard and Mo Williams.

It was also a battle of the second pick mistakes: Bowie vs. Miličić.

Players drafted out of the top two rounds: Earl "Butch" Graves, Rick Carlisle, and Carl Lewis (!) vs. Matt Carroll, Marquis Daniels and Ronald Dupree (needed some people from the 2003 team to put here, but nothing compares to Carl Lewis who ranks among the biggest NBA draft oddities).

The 2003 class is just entering their primes. What if they played the 1984 team in its prime? Who would win? I go with 1984...but 2003 still has plenty of time to change my mind.