Hot Stove Coal: Can You Win the World Series by Making a Big Mid-Season Trade?

The truth is that what a roster looks like today (or Opening Day) is not what it will look like once the playoffs start. Injuries occur, players are traded, released, picked up on waivers, called up from the minors, and free agents are signed. Nothing is set in stone. And big pieces can be had at the trade deadline. Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were traded last season and CC Sabathia the year before that. But none of those teams won the World Series. Yet many point to the big David Justice trade in 2000 the key piece for the Yankees win. Let's examine the teams that won the World Series since the strike and their biggest mid-season (April 1st to October 1st) deal to see if you should have your team mostly set now or you can hold out for that big piece...(thanks to Baseball-Reference for the help in this)

2009 New York Yankees

Biggest Deal: June 30, 2009 Traded Casey Erickson (minors) and Eric Fryer (minors) to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Eric Hinske.
Analysis: The Yankees also picked up guys like Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Chad Gaudin but the trade for Hinske was probably the most helpful. Many fans were upset the Yankees didn't go out and make a bigger splash for a guy like Roy Halladay, but it ended up that the pop from Hinske, versatility of Hairston and the solid starting pitching of Gaudin was all they needed to win it all.
Big scale: All small trades

2008 Philadelphia Phillies

Biggest Deal: July 17, 2008 Traded Adrian Cardenas (minors), Matt Spencer (minors) and Josh Outman to the Oakland Athletics. Received Joe Blanton.
Analysis: The Phillies also traded for Matt Stairs and Scott Eyre, but their biggest trade came before the season when they acquired Eric Bruntlett and Brad Lidge from the Astros. They would make a much bigger splash with Cliff Lee a year later but these smaller deals were the ones that actually propelled them to the championship. Blanton was solid down the stretch for the Phillies, going 4-0 with a 4.20 ERA.
Big scale: Medium trades

2007 Boston Red Sox

Biggest Deal: July 31, 2007 Traded Engel Beltre (minors), Kason Gabbard and David Murphy to the Texas Rangers. Received Eric Gagne and cash.
Analysis: Believe it or not, this was the Red Sox biggest deal and it failed miserably. Amazingly, many Yankees fans were angry with Brian Cashman that he didn't make this deal. It ended up working out the best for the Red Sox anyways as they took home the World Series trophy. The only other mid-season acquisition to play in the majors for the Sox was free agent signing Royce Clayton who had a grand total of 6 plate appearances.
Big scale: All small trades

2006 St. Louis Cardinals

Biggest Deal: July 5, 2006 Traded Terry Evans to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Jeff Weaver and cash.
Analysis: Talk about a small deal that really worked out for a team. Weaver was 3-10 with a 6.29 ERA when the Cards acquired him in July and he wasn't that much better during the regular season for St. Louis. But they gave him the ball every round of the playoffs and it paid off as he won a game every round of the playoffs. This team surprised many by winning the World Series, but people were even more surprised considering the lack of trades they made at the deadline. It worked out, though.
Big scale: All small trades

2005 Chicago White Sox

Biggest Deal: July 31, 2005 Traded Ryan Meaux (minors) to the San Diego Padres. Received Geoff Blum.
Analysis: Yup, Geoff Blum. He didn't help them out at all in the regular season (.506 OPS) but in the World Series against the Astros, Blum hit a home run to break a 5-5 tie in the top of the 14th inning and win the game for the White Sox. Not bad for a no-hit utility infielder.
Big scale: All small trades

2004 Boston Red Sox

Biggest Deal: July 31, 2004 Traded Henri Stanley (minors) to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Dave Roberts. As part of a 4-team trade, traded Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton to the Chicago Cubs. Received Doug Mientkiewicz from the Minnesota Twins and Orlando Cabrera from the Montreal Expos. In addition, the Chicago Cubs sent Francis Beltran, Alex Gonzalez and Brendan Harris to the Montreal Expos; and the Chicago Cubs sent Justin Jones (minors) to the Minnesota Twins.
Analysis: Our first really big trade on the list. And, amazingly, the biggest player to be traded here left the Red Sox in Nomar Garciaparra. Cubs fans were really excited. The Boston Globe quoted Johnny Damon that day saying "We just traded away Mr. Boston, a guy that meant so much to the city, and just like that, he's gone." But it was the Red Sox who led the majors in unearned runs allowed when the trade was made and Cabrera and Mientkiewicz helped shore up the defense. And Dave Roberts stole a base or something.
Big scale: Big deals

2003 Florida Marlins

Biggest Deal: July 11, 2003 Traded Will Smith (minors), Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Snare to the Texas Rangers. Received Ugueth Urbina.
Analysis: Yes, the traded away that Adrian Gonzalez. The Marlins were pretty happy with Braden Looper (82% save success rate) at closer, but wanted some insurance and a dominant set-up man. The trade certainly shored up the Marlins bullpen as Urbina went 3-0 down the stretch with a 1.41 ERA and 6 saves (though he blew two games as well). Urbina then took over the closer role in the post-season where he went 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA and 4 saves as the Marlins shocked the Yankees in the World Series.
Big scale: Medium trades

2002 Anaheim Angels

Biggest Deal: July 31, 2002 Traded players to be named later and Jorge Fabregas to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Sal Fasano and Alex Ochoa.
Analysis: The Angels were mostly set, but Ochoa became an important bat for them. He hit .277/.373/.477 down the stretch for the Angels, but didn't contribute anything to the postseason team, and never played another major league game. The biggest acquisition this Angels team made that year was from inside the organization when they brought up K-Rod to fortify their bullpen.
Big scale: All small trades

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks

Biggest Deal: July 25, 2001 Traded Nick Bierbrodt and Jason Conti to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Received Mike Difelice and Albie Lopez.
Analysis: Difelice was a waste, getting 23 PAs and reaching base once, but Lopez was an OK pitcher for the D-backs down the stretch, taking the ball 13 times, though he was horrendous in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks signed Randy Johnson before the 1999 season and traded for Curt Schilling during the 2000 season which proved to the be the biggest reason this team won.
Big scale: All small trades

2000 New York Yankees

Biggest Deal: June 29, 2000 Traded Zach Day, Ricky Ledee and Jake Westbrook to the Cleveland Indians. Received David Justice.
Analysis: The Yankees have the only two acquisitions in June on this list and this one is really the trade that all mid-season deals seem to be judged against. Justice was the key piece in the Yankees championship run and this trade brought him to the Bronx. It ends up the Yankees gave up a lot to get Justice but it was well-worth it as they took home their 4th World Series in 5 years. The Yankees also made deals for Jose Vizcaino, Denny Neagles, Glenallen Hill, and Luis Sojo (and claimed Jose Canseco off waivers). This was a big acquisition year for the Yankees 
Big scale: Big deals

1999 New York Yankees

Biggest Deal: July 31, 1999 Traded Geraldo Padua (minors) to the San Diego Padres. Received Jim Leyritz.
Analysis: The Yankees April signing of Darryl Strawberry (.327/.500/.612 with 3 HR) was probably more important to the team especially in the first two rounds of the playoffs (where he hit identical .333/.429/.833 in the both rounds) but since we're looking at trades, Leyritz's insurance homerun in Game 4 of the World Series sealed the win for the Yankees. This team's biggest move happened on February 18, 1999 when they traded Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd and David Wells to the Toronto Blue Jays for Roger Clemens--who won that Game 4 that Leyritz hit the homerun in.
Big scale: All small trades

1998 New York Yankees

Biggest Deal: August 23, 1998 Traded Ray Ricken (minors) and Shea Morenz (minors) to the San Diego Padres. Received Brad Kaufman (minors) and Jim Bruske.
Analysis: The Yankees had zero interest in trying to change the chemistry of a club that was about to make history, so this was the biggest trade they made during the season. The biggest move for this team happened before the season as well when, on March 23, 1998, they signed Cuban defector Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez who became a big-time pitcher for them. Bruske only pitched in 3 games for the Yankees, but this was about as big a deal as they made all season long.
Big scale: All small trades

1997 Florida Marlins

Biggest Deal: July 21, 1997 Traded Billy McMillon to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Darren Daulton. July 27, 1997 Traded Mark Hutton to the Colorado Rockies. Received Craig Counsell.
Analysis: The team that bought a championship made a lot of moves, but not many big ones during the season. These were the two biggest. Daulton hit .262/.371/.429 down the stretch and Counsell hit .299/.376/.396. Daulton was a huge part of the World Series (hitting .389/.455/.667) as the last hurrah of his career
Big scale: Medium trades

1996 New York Yankees

Biggest Deal: July 31, 1996 Traded Matt Drews (minors) and Ruben Sierra to the Detroit Tigers. Received Cecil Fielder. Traded Mark Hutton to the Florida Marlins. Received Dave Weathers.
Analysis: The Yankees made a big splash the year before when they got David Cone and Ruben Sierra. Then they turned around and traded Sierra in 1996 at the deadline for "Big Daddy" Cecil Fielder. Fielder was a big player for them in 1996, especially in the World Series where he took over for a struggling Tino Martinez. Weathers was a much smaller deal on the same day but he ended up being a solid middle reliever as part of the bridge to Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland. Fielder was the big deal, however.
Big scale: Big deals

1995 Atlanta Braves

Biggest Deal: April 6, 1995 Traded Roberto Kelly, Tony Tarasco and Esteban Yan to the Montreal Expos. Received Marquis Grissom.
Analysis: This was actually not as big of a deal as it seems, but Grissom stepped right into the centerfield role and although he didn't show much with the bat in his first season in Atlanta (.692 OPS), he won a Gold Glove and stole 29 bases. More importantly, he was a huge part of their post-season, hitting .524/.524/1.048 (that's a 1.571 OPS) with 3 HR in the NLDS and then following that up with a solid NLCS and World Series as well. The Braves made a few other small trades during the season as well, but none had the impact as Grissom
Big scale: Medium trades

So let's take a final tally: 3 teams won with big deals, 4 teams won with medium trades, and 8 won with only making small deals. The key seems to be making the big moves before the season starts. Remember, guys like Randy Johnson may be big deadline acquisitions that may help you make the playoffs, but they don't necessarily mean you win the World Series