ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!

Yes, yes I am. As word came down today that the lockout was over one could practically hear all of America breathe sighs of relief. The players association is very close to voting to end the lockout, start free agency, and get back to football as opposed to the legal drama that seemed like it would never end over the course of the last 130 plus days. Football is back, teams will soon be signing free agents and the world can get back to focusing on football, rather then focusing about what was going on in a conference room in Washington D.C.

As the terms of the lockout come to light, fans have seen happiness from both sides that the deal was done, but frankly from a fans perspective, I would rather this be totally behind everyone, today. I don't want to hear about when the NFL PA is going to vote, all I want to know is when free agency will start, when teams will report and when the season will start. Of course we will be inundated with useless chatter for the next day or so about how both sides are happy with the terms of the deal, and how Goodell and Smith are pure geniuses for putting together a deal that worked out for both sides, and I suppose, to some extent fans should be thankful to the guys who made the deal an actuality.

However the effort spent talking even more about the lockout is a waste, at this point, with the season on the brink of delay, one can't help but crave the useless football chatter of yesteryear. What with all this lockout chatter you forgot? You know, the endless speculation about which players will end up where, how your teams going to do this year, the quarterback battles and all the real football drama that makes the NFL pre season enticing for fans. For know we can go back to trash talking friends, making fantasy teams, and returning to the real NFL we all know and love. Are you ready for free agency, training camp, practices, a Rex Ryan super bowl guarantee, days spent in the bar, in the living room, or in the stadium parking lot? Are you ready for an end to the legal drama and a start to the gridiron drama? Are you ready for some Football? IT'S ABOUT TIME!!!

Heat's Success Ushers In A New Era For NBA

All together now "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO." Yes the hated Heat are going to the NBA Finals one step away from forever silencing the haters and vindicating Lebron, from the hatred he got for joining a super-team in Miami. However regardless of the outcome of the Finals, the Heat's success means that the damage has been done, and may just be the start of a new era, one step cleaner then the steroid era in baseball. Lebron and Bosh may have successfully ushered in the era of the three superstars meet up, form a Miami Heat like dominant team, and vie for the championship. While this may be good news for teams like the Knicks, it kills the small market teams, with the lone superstar, who will be out of luck trying to land the players who will try and fit the Lebron mold in switching squads.

Consider in the next two years, the list of restricted, and unrestricted free agents in the NBA is filled with All-Star caliber talent who you can bet will try and team up Heat style in order to win. Star players that could be on the move include Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Marc Gasol, Deron Williams and Steve Nash. Plus these two free agent classes are filled with the type of role players who can go in for mid level money and thrive alongside the stars who have teamed up. I'm talking about you Jamal Crawford, Glen Davis, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Matt Barnes, O.J. Mayo, and Rudy Fernandez. You can bet that most of these players will be looking to team up, or go with a team that already has an established superstar.

While some teams will probably gain from this, think big market, already with a superstar, like the Knicks whose fans are already clamoring for CP3, this type of switching kills the majority of the NBA. With all of the stars teaming up a majority of the NBA will be unable to contend. Sure there will be six great teams, and the playoffs will be spectacular, but for teams without three stars they will have no shot, and if the team is in an undesirable place to play, how will they ever contend. Will Dwight Howard ever want to go play in Minnesota? Lebron has created a system in which the teams are at the mercy of the players. Every summer will just be a feeding frenzy of free agency in which the small teams watch as their star departs for the bright lights and the near guarantee of playing for the NBA title. If Lebron can do it, why can't CP3, Dwight Howard, and a host of other big name players do it too? It's a question that will change the NBA and it all happened because of one man and his "Decision"

Optimist Prime: A Look at the Jets Free Agents

Despite his Jets failing him once again in the AFC Championship Game, Russell is back with another Optimist Prime post on his team. Even though there's a Super Bowl still to be played, Russell is looking ahead to the off-season and free agency. Here is how he sees the Jets off-season shaping out:

Tough decisions coming for Mike Tannenbaum and Woody Johnson (Star-Ledger)

-----------------------
It has been a tough week for Optimist Prime. He took the jets loss in the AFC championship game hard, not leaving his room and feasting on gallons of Ben and Jerry’s Phish Food ice cream. While he’s put on some pounds Optimist is, well, optimistic about the Jets chances next year, but it will be a tough offseason for sure. The Jets have 18 total free agents, and will need many of them back if they want to make another run at the Lombardi trophy. Here’s a list of the free agents…

UNRESTRICTED	RESTRICTED  (If There is A Salary Cap This Season)
Shaun Ellis	David Harris
Steve Weatherford	Nick Folk
Brodney Pool	James Ihedigbo
Tony Richardson	Robert Turner
Braylon Edwards
Santonio Holmes
Wayne Hunter
Trevor Pryce
Antonio Cromartie
Lance Laury
Eric Smith
Brad Smith
Drew Coleman
Kellen Clemens

Now there are a couple of variables in determining how many of these players the Jets will be able to keep. The new collective bargaining agreement will put a salary cap in place and owners have already said that it will be lower than the one that was in place prior to this year (in 2007 it was around $127 million). This will make it tougher for the Jets to re-sign all of their important pieces especially if Holmes, Edwards, Harris and Cromartie all ask for big money.

Also under old CBA rules a team that makes it to a championship game must release a player in order to sign a free agent. The final four teams will not be permitted to negotiate or sign any unrestricted free agent to a player contract unless he is cut from his team or originally belonged to the team that is trying to sign (or re-sign) him.

With this in mind here is a rundown of who the Jets must keep, and who they can let go…

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Hot Stove Coal: Former All-Star Acquisitions Aplenty in AL East

There have been a lot of former All-Stars acquired by the five teams in the American League East. Here's a look at all those All Stars with one player per team I was surprised wasn't in the Summer Classic (or at least the best player acquired not to make an All-Star Team).

Toronto Blue Jays: Chad Cordero
Surprise: Octavio Dotel

Tampa Bay Rays: Manny Ramriez and Johnny Damon
Surprise: Kyle Farnsworth

Baltimore Orioles: Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy
Surprise: Mark Reynolds

Boston Red Sox: Bobby Jenks, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez
Surprise: Dan Wheeler

New York Yankees: Andruw Jones, Rafael Soriano, Russell Martin, and Mark Prior
Surprise: Pedro Feliciano

The Yankees have the most former All Stars acquired but the Red Sox have the players who have been All Stars most recently. It doesn't really say anything about the teams' offseasons but just a general overview of the starpower assembled this off-season in the American League East.

Hot Stove Coal: Yankees Reportedly Close to Andruw Jones Signing

Yahoo!'s Tim Brown is reporting that the Yankees and outfielder Andruw Jones are "nearing a one-year deal." Previously the Yankees were said to be looking for an outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, but were off on salary according to MLBTradeRumors. For the right price, Jones would certainly be a good fit for the Yankees' fourth outfielder, filling in vs. lefties and providing a good defensive and offensive player for the bench. If it isn't a lot of money, I think that Jones is certainly worth the gamble.

Andruw Jones may be heading to the Bronx for 2011 (AJC)

Finding a value for Andruw Jones may be tough, though judging from the fact he signed a $500K deal last off-season with incentives, it doesn't seem to be much of an outlay from the outlook. Even if he gets a raise on guaranteed money from that deal, he's still worth it for the Yankees.

Jones burst on to the scene in 1996 at 19 and killed the Yankees in that year's World Series. From 1998 to 2004, Jones averaged over 30 HR and almost 100 RBI per season while winning a Gold Glove every year. Then Jones really took off. He led the majors in HR (51) and the NL in RBI (128) and a .922 OPS in 2005 when he finished second in the MVP voting (with an 8.3 fWAR) and followed it up the next season with 41 HR and 129 RBI. That was at age 29 and he looked prime to continue on that path. 2007 was a down season for Jones as he hit .222/.311/.413 for the Braves and was scooped up by the Dodgers in the off-season. The Dodgers season was a disaster for Jones and the contract was a bust for the Dodgers as Jones hit an awful .158/.256/.249 before being released. He's been slowly building up his value with the Rangers and White Sox in the American League the past two seasons.

Jones will turn 34 in April and has now been relegated for 4th OF duty. For the Yankees, that may be a perfect place for him. The Yankees have left-handed hitting outfielders in center and left and can use a Marcus Thames-like righty bat for the bench. Thames was a lefty masher last season, and Jones is not too shabby himself hitting .261/.361/.501 vs. lefties in his career and .256/.373/.558 last season. He also had a great second half last season hitting .272/.380/.565 and providing some hope that maybe he has gotten that Hall of Fame swing back.

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Hot Stove Coal: Secondary Pitching Options Not Looking Great for Yanks

After the Red Sox broke the bank (or not) for Carl Crawford yesterday, the Yankees have seemed to step up their effort to sign the top player remaining on the market, Cliff Lee, even getting creative on contract details. While I think 7 years for a 32-year-old pitcher is pretty insane, with the Red Sox strikes leaving five lefties in the starting lineup, Lee seems like an even better option than he did a day ago. But what happens if everyone's forgone conclusion is wrong and Lee signs with the Rangers or the Angels or the Nationals or some other team? Well Yankees fans, the secondary options either aren't all that great or aren't all that available. Let's look at these outside "options" (I'm excluding guys in the minors, Ivan Nova, projects like Mark Prior, or a guy like Joba Chamberlain for now).

If Lee disappears, Yankees' options are pretty bleak (Globe & Mail)

To break down possible targets, I used Baseball-Reference's Play Index and looked for any starter who had one season of at least 3 wins (B-R WAR of 3+) in the past three years. Although this is far from a perfect metric, I figured that any starter they acquire probably will need to fit this criteria to be a viable option in the power-hitting American League East. Here's a few candidates:

Zack Greinke: He's probably not a good fit for New York with anxiety issues, but if the Yankees can get some reassurance he'd be okay in New York, I think he's firmly their "Plan B" (as has been rumored). With guys like Jeff Weaver bombing out in New York, I don't know if the Yankees would go this route again, though. I like Greinke a lot: only 27, has been excellent the past three years (though fell of just a bit last year), signed for two more years at a reasonable $13.5 M a season, and seems to want to go to a place he has a chance to win. With chips like Jesus Montero, Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain, and young pitchers to play with and a need to rebuild for the Royals, this could be a good match-up player-wise. I just worry about Greinke in the Bronx since "personality" and "adaptability to a big market" are not measurable stats.

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One (Not-So-Clear) Winner In The Derek Jeter Negotiations

A few weeks back I asked NYaT's readers and Twitter followers to guess what Derek Jeter's next contract would be. The guesses were all pretty good and I thank everyone again for participating. But now that Derek Jeter has officially inked his new contract, we need a winner. Like the actual negotiations between Jeter and the Yankees, this was not as easy as I thought. I was OK with the Yankees and Jeter working out the contract, but I was interested to see who would win our last book .But before we get to a winner, let's talk a little about the end of these negotiations.

Jeter and the Yankees' brass heading to the presser (NYT)

All it took to finalize these dealings, it seems, was for the Yankees to meet face-to-face with Jeter and hammer out what SI's Jon Heyman correctly calls "a creative and complex deal." Jack Curry via Twitter seemed to be the one to break the contract details out first and it includes a bit of everything: a large amount of guaranteed money, deferred money, an option with a buyout, and incentive clauses. Despite the fact that most announcements during the Winter Meetings are actually made where the Winter Meetings occur, the New York Post's Joel Sherman says that Jeter made the Yankees go to Tampa for the announcement, certainly the first sign that something wasn't quite right in Jeter's head.

In the end, the discussion is over and Derek Jeter is a Yankee though it didn't take long for people to start pushing loads of blame on the Yankees or on Jeter--and, honestly, both are loads of crap. This is a business negotiation not a Disney movie and, honestly, if George Steinbrenner was alive, there's no guarantee this wouldn't have gone worse for Jeter and the Yankees considering the path of his first negotiations. I don't think anyone "won" here but I think in the end, that's the sign of a fair negotiation. The Yankees got their man and Jeter got paid.

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Hot Stove Coal: Jeter and the Yankees are Taking a While...But That's OK

One of my favorite shows on television is The Office but there are episodes where Michael Scott's interactions with others get so painful to watch that you almost want to turn the channel. The Derek Jeter negotiations are on the verge of that--but aren't there yet. Like Dunder Mifflin and Michael Scott, you feel like the current version of the Yankees and Derek Jeter will always be together, when, in fact, both of those pairings will separate at some point in the not-so-distant future. But in the meantime, Jeter and the Yankees have waged a very public, sometimes uncomfortably messy negotiations for Derek Jeter's last contract. In the end, though, I think that will be okay for both the Yankees and Jeter.

Derek Jeter and the Yankees need each other (MSNBC)

Let's test your Yankees free agent memory: Do you recall the Yankees telling Bernie Williams to hit the road? Do you remember when the Yankees refused to give Andy Pettitte a large guaranteed deal and instead made him play for an average salary with incentives? How about when Jorge Posada and the Yankees had very public negotiations with Jorge threatening to bolt for Flushing? Maybe you'll recall letting World Series "heroes" Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon walk? All of these happened in the past 5 years and yet the Derek Jeter negotiations are seen by some in the media and Yankee fandom as "unprecedented", when, in fact, the Yankees have already had these types of public negotiations with Derek Jeter, himself, in the past (sometimes those were pretty messy, too).

The Yankees used to operate differently. With George Steinbrenner in charge the Yankees doled out multi-year contracts like they were Halloween candy, never worrying about the consequences or a budget. But after getting bogged down with the Carl Pavanos and Jaret Wrights and, now, A.J. Burnetts of the baseball world, the Yankees are trying not to make the same mistake again. The Yankees' "core" is getting to the point where most teams would send them out to pasture with a shotgun in the pickup but Pettitte, Jeter, Rivera and even Posada can all serve a purpose to a Yankees team trying to win in 2011. They all have meant a lot to the Yankees teams of the past and have been well-compensated for that, but can still contribute to a winning team in '11.

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What Will Derek Jeter's Next Contract Be? (The Guesses & Contest Winner)

Our contest got a ton of entries, but the first prize winner of a copy of Jane Leavy's New York Times bestseller, "The Last Boy: Mickey Mantle and the End of America's Childhood" is Peter McLaughlin (@pjmclaugh on Twitter). Congrats to him, but there were many, many more guesses of what Derek Jeter's contract will look like. It will be interesting to come back to these in a few weeks and see who wins the second book as the person who got closest (in years/dollars combination) to the actual result. Here are the predictions from our crowd sourcing prognostication (in annual value order and with options picked up):

Name	Years	Dollar	Average
@JayHyne	4	$48	$12.0
@Laurenmass	4	$60	$15.0
Alex O	4	$60	$15.0
@Scroiata	5	$75	$15.0
@NYsportSpace	4	$65	$16.3
@danreilly11	4	$65	$16.3
@hbk2369	4	$65	$16.3
Richie K	4	$66	$16.5
@eric_weinberg	4	$70	$17.5
@JobaRules26	5	$90	$17.9
@NYYEric	3	$54	$18.0
@AndyNY2	4	$76	$19.0
@pjmclaugh	4	$84	$21.0
@theharryadams	3	$65	$21.7
@treyalex09	3	$65	$21.7
Average	4	$67	$17.3

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What Will Derek Jeter's Next Contract Look Like? (with a prize!)

Last week we gave out a copy of Jane Leavy's new book that everyone is talking about, the New York Times bestseller, "The Last Boy: Mickey Mantle and the End of America's Childhood." The Tuesday Trivia winner was Richard Iurilli and we want to congratulate him on winning the first book (it will be in the mail very shortly). While Ben W is diligently reading through the book to write a review on the blog and Richard will be starting to read his shortly, we have two more books to give away.

Here's how we're going to do it: go on to Twitter and reply to us at @NoYoureaTowel and let us know what you think Derek Jeter's next contract will look like (years and dollar amount) with the hashtag #NextJeterContract. So a sample tweet would look something like this "@NoYoureaTowel I think that Derek Jeter will get a 3 year, $50 million contract #NextJeterContract".

If you don't have Twitter, you can let us know in the comments below as well. You have until Friday to get your guesses in. If you retweet this blog post (you can do so just by clicking that button below the post), you will double your chances to win.

On Friday I'll select one random Twitter guesser to get a book (you must be following NoYoureaTowel to be eligible--and remember, retweeting gets you 2x the chances!). The last book will go to the person who comes the closest to the actual Derek Jeter contract when that is signed (and can be on Twitter or here in the comments). The crowdsourcing answers will be compiled into a blog post so make sure to send good guesses. You don't know when he'll actually sign that contract, so make sure to get your guesses in quickly just in case he signs this week!  Good luck!

Will CC Sabathia Opt Out After 2011?

On a slow Friday in New York, I was perusing the Yankees' page of Cot's Baseball Contracts, a wonderful resource for player-by-player and team-by-team contract information. When I landed on their second-highest paid player, CC Sabathia, I was sort of surprised to see this bullet point:

It's possible CC may not wear Pinstripes after 2011 (ESPN)

• Sabathia may opt of of deal after 2011 season. 

I wasn't shocked because I didn't know about it, but, frankly, because I don't remember it being mentioned since Sabathia signed his big contract back in December of 2008. In fact, I forgot how important that opt-out clause was to Sabathia's contract being signed. According to Tim Brown and Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports (whose article was titled "Opt-out clause key to Sabathia going to Yankees"):

The deal, according to a source close to negotiations, gives Sabathia the right to opt out of the contract after the first three years, by which time he will have been paid $69 million. Sabathia appreciated the clause because it satisfied concerns he had about living in New York and the impact it might have on his wife and three children.

He will make his opt-out decision after the 2011 season with four years and $92 million remaining on the deal, at which time he could renegotiate, leave or stay.

Yahoo! Sports wasn't the only one; New York Daily News and almost every other news outlet mentioned the opt-out if not in the title of their article, then at least in the body. Since then, not much has been said about this opt-out clause. I searched on Google News for any mention of "Sabathia" and "opt-out" in the past year and there were 21 results, more than half of which seem to be about either A.J. Burnett or Alex Rodriguez opting out. So this is not a much-discussed topic to say the least. But should it be? Should we just assume that the hefty lefty and his family are happy in New York and they are going to stay? Or will CC Sabathia be hitting the open market at the end of next season at the age of 31?

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How to Become a Hated Athlete: From LeBron to A-Rod

Before "The Announcement" comes tonight, the animosity towards LeBron James is thicker than the humid air in Greenwich, Connecticut where "The King" will make "The Announcement". So why has LeBron entered this level of hatred unseen by many in sports? Well let's look at the levels of sports hatred and see how LeBron (of the recently launched blog--with the picture on the right--and Twitter account) has become the A-Rod of basketball, because for as much hatred as LeBron has had come his way, no professional athlete has seemed to endure as much hatred as Alex Rodriguez.

The Carl Pavanos: No Yankee player has drawn as much animosity between fans, the media and the team in the past few decades as "The American Idle", Carl Pavano. Huge contract, huge expectations, and no production. Not bad production. No production. An unwillingness to pitch hurt and to put himself out there for the Yankees has made Pavano a hated man in New York. The worst part? He's left the Yankees and found a way to stay healthy and pitch well in the American League for the Minnesota Twins, even facing the Yankees in the playoffs last season. Players like David Beckham, JaMarcus Russell, Bryant "Big Country" Reeves, Darren Dreifort, and Manny Ramirez at the end of his Boston days, fit into this category, but for all of LeBron and A-Rod's faults, they don't fit here.

The Barry Bondses: America hates cheaters who either get caught or at least get accused of being cheaters. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire fit the bill in baseball but there are a handful of athletes in other sports especially cycling and the Olympics who fit this bill as well. I wrote before that we all hate Carl Pavano for not trying, but if he would have cheated, had success and been caught later, would he have been more or less hated? I think less, sadly. I'm not apologizing for Pavano, but I think that sometimes cheaters get a second look depending on how many other times they show up on the "hate scale". A-Rod qualifies for this after his steroids revelation, but LeBron--so far--has been clean.

The Art Modells: Teams switch cities all the time but few names have as much animosity associated with them as Art Modell who moved the Browns out of Cleveland and to Baltimore. When they won a Super Bowl in Baltimore, he was hated even more. This also applies to players who leave a team bare to chase the money and surrounds A-Rod when he visits Cleveland. This would also apply to Robert Irsay (who moved the Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis) and could apply to LeBron James as well if he leaves Cleveland.

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Is There a Free Agent Market For Cliff Lee?

One of the biggest off-season moves of this past winter was the Seattle Mariners acquisition of Cliff Lee from the Philadelphia Phillies. With one year left on his contract, Lee was deemed expendable by a Philadelphia team that didn’t think they could resign him once his contract was up. The Mariners had dreams of pairing Felix Hernandez and Lee together for one season and seeing what they could do in the spacious confines of Safeco Field.

Well, it may only be one year that they have together. Lee’s agent, Darek Braunecker, told ESPN’s Buster Olney that Lee will be testing the free agent waters in five months. With Josh Beckett locked up, Brandon Webb injured and Javier Vazquez having a rough go of it in the Bronx, Lee is definitely the cream of the free agent pitching crop.

But what type of market awaits Lee? Which teams will be involved in the bidding? While 5 years ago, Cliff Lee would be looking at a huge contract deal, in 2010 with a depressed economy, sagging attendance in some parks, and teams looking to be more fiscally responsible, it seems like Lee’s prospects are drying up in certain areas. So will Lee get a CC Sabathia-type contract or will he be left disappointed after the off-season is over? Let’s take a look at the possibilities (with thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts on the salaries):

Seattle Mariners: The Mariners traded away some of their best prospects to get Cliff Lee so it would make sense they would keep him, right? Well some of thought behind acquiring Lee was that they would keep him for a year and try to recoup the prospect loss in draft pick compensation for Lee signing elsewhere (Lee should be a Type A free agent). And since the Mariners are yet to approach Lee about a contract, that draft pick grab may be the path they are going to head down. If Lee has a huge season in Seattle, though, the Mariners will have a lot of incentive to resign him. If the team struggles, however, they may have to trade him and The News Tribune says they should think about doing that now, rather than later. The Seattle P-I says that the Mariners haven't really been showing much love Lee's way (picture to the right from that article).

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Just When Things Were Starting to Look Up for the Mets...

No matter how good things get for the Mets, there's one bad date they have to put on their calendar: July 1, 2011. And, well, every July 1st thereafter--until 2035. Why? Bobby Bonilla. Let's let CNN and Mental Floss explain:

Next year former outfielder Bobby Bonilla goes back on the payroll at the ripe old age of 48.

In 1999, Bonilla returned to the Mets for a second stint at Shea following his borderline disastrous free-agent signing in 1992. Bonilla wasn't any better the second time around, so the Mets waived him in 2000. The problem was that the team still owed Bonilla $5.9 million in guaranteed salary.

Bonilla's agents worked out a deal with the Mets where he would defer the salary if the team would pay him $1,193,248.20 every July 1 from 2011 to 2035. Not a bad deal for someone who was so bad the team basically paid him to go away.

Now, if you're wondering, what that $1.193 M could pay for the Mets in 2011, Cot's Baseball Contracts is the place to go. But even if you just take the Major League Minimum of $400,000, Bonilla's salary could pay for almost three players to play--or, for 2011, Ike Davis, Jon Niese and Jenrry Mejia.

How bad was Bonilla in 1999 that the Mets decided to waive him and incur this future albatross? Well in 60 games, he hit .160/.277/.303 and a cool .260 wOBA (which, according to FanGraphs was 9.9 runs below average). According to Baseball Projection, that was good enough for -1.5 wins, the worst mark of Bonilla's career. He also supposedly was playing cards with Rickey Henderson during the 1999 NLCS--while the game was going on. And the Mets will be paying him until he's 72! Maybe if the Mets are looking for some offense this off-season, they can ask Bobby Bo to actually come back and earn some of that money.

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Players Union Needs to Stop Complaining, Start Focusing On What's Important

This irks me: “We have concerns about the operation of the post-2009 free agent market,” new union head Michael Weiner said Tuesday in a telephone interview with The Associated Press. “We have been investigating that market. Our investigation is far along but not yet complete.”

Ok, Mike, I'm assuming you're not talking about Scott Boras and his clear conflict on interest, because, well, you seem to have no interest in regulating agents. And I'm sure you're not talking about the treatment/salaries of minor league players, since, well, you don't seem to have much interest in their well-being. So what exactly are you talking about?

Oh, right, Mike...you're talking about players (read: high-paid veterans) whose salaries--as your union cited recently--is actually up. This in a time where the economies of all your American League Central cities from Cleveland to Detroit seem to be in shambles. I'm not crying for the owners, but let us not shed a tear for these poor players either. I'm not getting involved in the convoluted baseball labor negotiations but I have a feeling that big-market owners, small-market owners, and the (veteran) players are all making out just fine.

And this all started because Jim Edmonds and Jermaine Dye had a hard time finding work? Boo hoo. Maybe teams are realizing that signing defensively challenged, over-the-hill players is not a good use of funds. Maybe there is more (read: better) information available to teams and they are giving out more offers that are consistent to what they read--like FanGraphs telling us that Jermaine Dye was worth negative $1 million in 2009 and negative $2.4 million in 2007. I don't always agree with FanGraphs values, but maybe teams are realizing that giving these guys $5 M guaranteed is a waste of funds. Good for them. As FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes: "Employees seek to earn as much possible. Employers seek to pay as little as possible. That’s how free enterprise works. If the owners simply are showing more discipline in free agency, the players have little basis for complaint."

Listen, it may be true that teams colluded and maybe an investigation will uncover something egregious. But I agree with Sabernomics' J.C. Bradbury: I'm not buying it. The Econ education in me leads to me to cling strongly to Bradbury's opening argument:

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A Look Back at the Detroit Moves: A Trade I Would Support

Jason over at IIATMS had a very thought-provoking post up today about the player movement between the Yankees and the Tigers. Basically Jason wanted to pose the question that if the trade for Granderson, and signings of Thames and Damon were seen as one big trade, would we be in favor of it. Jason boils it down to Johnny Damon, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. He further breaks down the financial commitments:

Yankees 2010 committment: (via Cot’s)

• Granderson: $5.5m [contract runs for three more years ($25.75m, all in, including a $2m buyout)]
• Thames: $0.9m (minor league contract)
• TOTAL: 6.4m

Detroit’s 2010 committment: (via Cot’s)

• Damon: $8.0m
• Coke: $0.4m
• Austin Jackson: League Minimum ($0.4m)
• ADD: Max Scherzer: $1.4m
• ADD: Dan Schlereth: League Minimum ($0.4m)
• LESS: Edwin Jackson: $4.2m
• LESS: Ian Kennedy: ~$0.4m
• TOTAL: $6.0m

Factoring in the second trade of Edwin Jackson and IPK for Scherzer and Schlereth, the Tigers were able to shed some 2010 payroll. Whether they are better for it or not remains to be seen, but in doing so, it puts the trade virtually neck and neck from a 2010 financial committment.  Of course, it doesn’t include the other moves the Yanks (or Detroit) made to fill in for the pieces traded, such as the Yanks signing Chan Ho Park.

So, knowing what we know now, on the eve of players reporting, are you still happy with this trade?

I've been mulling this one all day. While what Jason present is correct and overall really interesting, it sort of shortens the narrative for the way the Yankee fan should think about the trade (ie--the Edwin Jackson/Max Scherzer/Dan Schlereth part shouldn't factor into the Yankees thinking of their off-season). And for this purpose, I'm going to shorten the narrative as well: let's only look at 2010 commitments.  In factoring the true trade value for the Yankees side, what they "traded away" was ~$9.2 million (Damon+Coke+Jackson+Kennedy).

So $9.2 M minus $6.4 M (what they're committing to Granderson and Thames) equals $2.8 M. Would you trade Damon, Coke, Jackson, and Kennedy for Granderson, Thames, and $2.8 M?

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The Good and The Bad of the Chan Ho Park Signing

For those that missed it, The New York Post's Joel Sherman reported this morning that the Yankees have signed Chan Ho Park to a $1.2 million contract with another $300,000 in incentives. I have to say that I'm a bit surprised by this signing considering it looked like the Yankees had enough candidates for their bullpen. But as with every signing, there are good sides and bad sides to it. Let's explore:

The Good:

Chan Ho Park showed last season that he was a much better pitcher as a reliever than a starter (and according to Sherman, Park is not in contention for the Yankees' 5th starter job). Via Baseball-Reference, in Park's 7 starts, he had a 7.29 ERA, 1.740 WHIP, 5.7 SO/9 and 1.24 SO/BB. In his 38 games out of the bullpen, Park had a 2.52 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 9.4 SO/9 and 3.25 SO/BB. Park was even better in the World Series against the Yankees, pitching 3.1 innings in 4 games, and giving up 2 hits, no runs and striking out 3. The Phillies also acquired Park after seeing him in the playoffs as he had pitched for Joe Torre's Dodgers in the 2008 playoffs against the Phillies.

It seems that performance put Park on the Yankees radar. And when his price continued to fall (Park had rejected a $3.25 million offer to stay with the Phillies), the Yankees pounced. As Sherman points out, the Yankees traded away Brian Bruney because they believed he would make too much money in arbitration. Well Bruney made $1.5 M and all that Park is guaranteed is $1.2 M. And I much rather have Park than Bruney. Especially considering that the Yankees have lost their entire Asian presence this season with Hideki Matsui in Anaheim and Chien-Ming Wang in Washington.

From Sherman: "As a reliever, the Yankees noticed, Park’s stuff played up; his fastball reached 96 mph and his curveball remained crisp. The Yanks also liked that Park had a reputation as a good teammate who works hard to stay in shape." (Whoa, someone pitched better as a reliever than a starter...could this be a pattern?) This could mean the Yankees will feel comfortable sending the loser of the Joba/Hughes 5th starter battle to the minors instead of the bullpen, but Sherman doesn't think so. Although Park's overall ERA last season was 4.43, FanGraphs has his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 3.49. Park's FIP as a relief pitcher in 2009 was 2.10 and as FanGraphs' Dave Cameron points out, Park has been remarkably effective. Park's value last year was 1.5 WAR or $7.0 M. It's a pretty low-cost obligation for a Yankees team that is being built for October. 

The Bad:

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Hot Stove Coal: Yankees Sign Marcus Thames

I knew they weren't done with leftfield. The Yankees have signed outfielder Marcus Thames according to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The money has not yet been disclosed but Thames will compete with Jaime Hoffmann for the 5th OF spot on the Yankees. It would make sense to bring in Marcus Thames on a minor league deal or the league minimum and then just to let go of whichever one of Hoffmann and Thames don't make the roster after Spring Training.

Thames was once a Yankees' prospect who hit his first major league home run off of Randy Johnson and was traded for Ruben Sierra (the second time). Now Thames comes back to the place where it all started. Thames is now the third Yankee to be reacquired by the Bronx Bombers this off-season (Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson the other two). Here's what I said about Thames a month ago:

Marcus Thames:

• Pros: Once a Yankee and the Yankees seem to be in the habit of acquiring their former players. Has pop from right side. Has career .845 OPS vs. lefties.
• Cons: Not a good fielder. Has posted a UZR of -16.7 in 1766 innings in LF. His career OBP is .306. .233/.281/.461 against righties make him only a platoon option.  

MLBTradeRumors writes that Thames "hit .263/.326/.541 against lefties over the last three years." Thames would seem to be a good bench bat with some pop who could play in place of Curtis Granderson when the Yankees face a tough lefty. Rebecca at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes says that it's a good time use FanGraphs fancy new splits, though I'm more interested in his righty/lefty ones. And for that reason, this signing makes sense.

Update: Some financial numbers from The New York Post's Joel Sherman via Twitter: @nyp_joelsherman: #Yankees sign Marcus Thames to minor league deal, gets $900,000 if makes team.  That's what I was talking about when I said the Yankees needed some cheap competition for Hoffmann.

Picture from homeruncards.com

Hot Stove Coal: Jason Bay to "Roam" Citi Field

Mike Francesa had an announcement to make at the beginning of his show today. I guess the Mets are letting WFAN scoop their stories because his big story was that the New York Mets had signed Jason Bay. Matt Cerrone of MetsBlog had the scoop that they had signed him to a 4-year deal for around $16.5 million a year to be heavily back-loaded.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has more details (his writing in italics)

The Mets have reached agreement on a four-year, $66 million agreement with Jason Bay pending a physical, The Post has learned.

That's not so bad. The Mets were hesitant to bend on the 4 years so this makes sense, right?

Bay had been seeking at least a five-year deal. The Mets did not not bend on four guaranteed years,

Ok, nice job Mets, but why is there that comma in there...?

but the Post has been told that the fifth-year trigger for the option will not be difficult to reach if Bay is indeed healthy throughout the life of the contract.

So there we go...it's a 5-year deal. Oy But why didn't the Mets announce it?

Mets officials refused to confirm the agreement, largely because the results of a physical are not complete and the Mets do not want to embarrass themselves by confirming a deal then having to back away should Bay not pass the physical -- think the humiliation and legal hassle with Yorvit Torrealba a few years back.

Yeah...um...but the physical is just a formality, right?

And the physical might not be a formality. There has been a lot of talk in the sport that the Red Sox were hesitant to do a long-term deal with Bay because they were concerned about the health of his shoulders.

Oh boy. This just screams of disaster for the Mets. Bay was a Mets prospect (the picture above his from Sports Memorabilia.com) who they let get away in Jeff-Kent-like fashion. They seemed destined this offseason to get him back when the Red Sox signed Mike Cameron. The Mets seemed willing to wait for Bay to settle into their numbers, but felt the time was right to pounce now.

So the Mets are getting a good bat who is a negative defender, negative runner, and may have bad shoulders...but if he doesn't, he'll probably vest the 5th year of this deal which the Mets were trying to avoid giving him. Hmmm. Maybe the Mets were better off looking for players in Japan where the Mets are "highly regarded."

I think Bay makes them a better team, but I'm not sure how much better. The OF is cavernous in Citi Field and Bay even had trouble making up the ground to cover Fenway Park with the Green Monster in LF. So that's why the "roaming" in the title of the post is in quotes. Jason Bay isn't exactly Gold Glove Barry Bonds out there in LF. More like Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series. The Mets may be able to hide Bay in LF for a year or two if Carlos Beltran comes back and plays a Gold Glove-caliber CF, but how much longer will Beltran do that and how much longer can the Mets afford to keep Bay in the outfield...especially without a DH spot to move him to. The Mets got away with having Carlos Delgado, a negative defender at 1st base for a few years, so maybe they can hide it for a while.

But with no extensive market for Bay now that Mark DeRosa had signed with the Giants, I don't think Omar Minaya needed to move so quickly. That all being said, the Mets finally got the slugger they were looking for. And Bay in the middle of that lineup--when/if everyone is healthy--is a good fit. A top 6 of Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, David Wright, Bay, Beltran, and Bengie Molina (if they finalize signing him) would be very good (although very right-handed). And Bay killed the Yankees early in the season last year so I'm glad to see him gone from the AL. But this almost seems like a case of the Mets worrying about not being able to give away their money and trying even harder to do so.

Hot Stove Coal: Nick Johnson Close to Being a Yankee Again

The last piece to the Yankees' off-season puzzle seems like it won't be Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, or Vlad Guerrero. The Yankees are going back to a player they once had come up through their system: Nick "The Stick" Johnson.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff is reporting that Johnson has a deal in place for 1 year, $5.5 million pending a physical. Now, while "pending a physical" with Johnson is a big deal, this deal seems all but done. So what does this mean for the Yankees and was this a good deal? Let's look at what Johnson brings to the table.



As you can see, Johnson's biggest selling point isn't durability. He's only reached 450 PA three times in his career and missed an entire season. He's not exactly RonDL White, but he's close. That being said, Johnson has played his entire career as a first baseman. He had two ill-advised forays into the outfield in 2002 but otherwise, the only other "position" he's played is 89 games at DH while with the Yankees. And as LoHud's Chad Jennings pointed out, Johnson's primary position being DH may limit his injury risk since most of his injuries occurred while in the field.

Johnson's biggest asset right now is his OBP. Johnson has a .402 career OBP which is 9th among active players. 8th on the list is Bobby Abreu, a person who the Yankees hope will emulate in his Yankee hitting. Abreu averaged .295/.378/.465 with the Yankees with 95 doubles, 43 HR, 243 RBI, 190 BB, and a 120 OPS+ over 2 plus seasons in the Bronx. The Yankees could deal with that average of production, though with less Ks and less HRs. And less HRs is probably what you're getting from Johnson as River Avenue Blues points out that his ISO has fallen greatly in recent years.

Johnny Damon would have been a better option--if the price was right. I think that Damon for more than 2 years or more than $13 million a year is way too much. Damon's appeal was in his flexibility of being able to play left as well as DH. Johnson is blocked at 1st base by Mark Teixeira so Johnson's role is either the DH, 1st base when Tex has a day off on the field, or the bench when Jeter or A-Rod need a day at the DH spot.

The Yankees wanted to have flexibility and this is a different type of flexibility. Instead of having the flexibility of being able to play left and DH, the Yankees will have the flexibility of having a good player on a one-year, low-priced contract. If Jesus Montero continues to develop or Nick Johnson does not play well, the Yankees can dump Nick Johnson and not take a large financial hit. Johnson will also be 31 next season while Damon will be 36.

Which brings us to the bigger theme. While the Yankees continually try to get better, they also try to get younger. Like Cameron learned all too well in Ferris Bueller's Day Off, you can't turn back the odometer. Instead of trying to reverse the ages of their aging stars (Jeter, A-Rod, Pettitte, Rivera, Posada, etc.), the Yankees are trying to inject some new (read: youthful) players in their absence. Gone are Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui and in are two new left-handed batters: Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson.

Let's look at the comparison with 2009 numbers:

#2 Hole:

• 2009: Johnny Damon, 36. .282/.365/.489, 36 2B, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 12 SB, 0 CS, 71 BB, 98 K, 126 OPS+, $13MM
  
• 2010: Nick Johnson, 31. .291/.426/.405, 24 2B, 8 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS, 99 BB, 84 K, 122 OPS+, $5.5MM

#5/6 Hole:

• 2009 Hideki Matsui, 36. .274/.367/.509, 21 2B, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS, 64 BB, 75 K, 131 OPS+, $13MM
• 2010 Curtis Granderson, 29. .249/.327/.453, 23 2B, 30 HR, 71 RBI, 20 SB, 6 CS, 72 BB, 141 K, 100 OPS+, $5.5MM

Could the Yankees have resigned Matsui instead of Johnson for $1MM more? Sure. But I think the Yankees got as much as they could get from Matsui last year and feel more confident in a younger, more OBP-conscious Johnson. Nick Johnson's OBP was third to Joe Mauer (AL MVP) and Albert Pujols (NL MVP) and fits great into that second hole in front of the big bats. Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out that Johnson saw more pitches than even Nick Swisher last season and killed lefties--two important factors if you're going to be part of this Yankees offense. The speed you lose with Damon (and it was diminishing judging by the fact he only had 12 SB last year), you gain with Granderson (who may be given the green light more in the Bronx). You also have to figure that Granderson and Johnson are both due for bumps in their offensive numbers moving from pitching-friendly parks to one of the more hitter-friendly parks (especially for left-handed hitters) out there. Would they have been a better team with Damon this year? Probably. But I think that two and three years down the line, that contract would have been a mistake. And with the Giants very interested in Johnson, the Yankees didn't have time to wait for Damon and his agent, Scott Boras, to play their game and try to drum up interest.

Could the Yankees still go out and sign Damon, Matt Holliday or Jason Bay to play left? Sure. But I don't see it happening. I think the Yankees are OK with Melky Cabrera manning left (or Brett Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF), even though Steven Goldman of Pinstriped Bible doesn't seem to like that equation. The Yankees are looking ahead to the much more attractive free agent class of 2011 (Joe Mauer, Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, etc.) and will look to spend their money again there. I think the group of players you see now is more or less what you will see come opening day (with one more starting pitcher and maybe a bullpen arm to add). And I think the Yankees, even losing their World Series MVP and their World Series stealing hero are better off than they were yesterday if they complete this signing. Like adding Nick Swisher last year, it's not a deal that makes you excited with anticipation, but I think Yankee fans will come around when they see Nick "The Stick" back in Pinstripes in 2010.