Tuesday, February 23, 2010

A Look Back at the Detroit Moves: A Trade I Would Support

Jason over at IIATMS had a very thought-provoking post up today about the player movement between the Yankees and the Tigers. Basically Jason wanted to pose the question that if the trade for Granderson, and signings of Thames and Damon were seen as one big trade, would we be in favor of it. Jason boils it down to Johnny Damon, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson and Marcus Thames. He further breaks down the financial commitments:
Yankees 2010 committment: (via Cot’s)
  • Granderson: $5.5m [contract runs for three more years ($25.75m, all in, including a $2m buyout)]
  • Thames: $0.9m (minor league contract)
  • TOTAL: 6.4m
Detroit’s 2010 committment: (via Cot’s)
  • Damon: $8.0m
  • Coke: $0.4m
  • Austin Jackson: League Minimum ($0.4m)
  • ADD: Max Scherzer: $1.4m
  • ADD: Dan Schlereth: League Minimum ($0.4m)
  • LESS: Edwin Jackson: $4.2m
  • LESS: Ian Kennedy: ~$0.4m
  • TOTAL: $6.0m
Factoring in the second trade of Edwin Jackson and IPK for Scherzer and Schlereth, the Tigers were able to shed some 2010 payroll. Whether they are better for it or not remains to be seen, but in doing so, it puts the trade virtually neck and neck from a 2010 financial committment.  Of course, it doesn’t include the other moves the Yanks (or Detroit) made to fill in for the pieces traded, such as the Yanks signing Chan Ho Park.

So, knowing what we know now, on the eve of players reporting, are you still happy with this trade?
I've been mulling this one all day. While what Jason present is correct and overall really interesting, it sort of shortens the narrative for the way the Yankee fan should think about the trade (ie--the Edwin Jackson/Max Scherzer/Dan Schlereth part shouldn't factor into the Yankees thinking of their off-season). And for this purpose, I'm going to shorten the narrative as well: let's only look at 2010 commitments.  In factoring the true trade value for the Yankees side, what they "traded away" was ~$9.2 million (Damon+Coke+Jackson+Kennedy).

So $9.2 M minus $6.4 M (what they're committing to Granderson and Thames) equals $2.8 M. Would you trade Damon, Coke, Jackson, and Kennedy for Granderson, Thames, and $2.8 M?

Let's see by taking a look at what that extra $2.8 M does for the Yankees. $2.8 M for example pays for Dustin Moseley (an example of a minor-league contract to RHSP that replace Kennedy's place as an extra starter), Chan Ho Park, and Randy Winn. So then the question is which do you like better?  

Choice A:
  • OFs Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson
  • RP: Phil Coke 
  • RHSP: Ian Kennedy 
Choice B:
  • OF Curtis Granderson, Marcus Thames, Randy Winn
  • RP Chan Ho Park 
  • RHSP Dustin Moseley
For the same exact price in 2010 dollars (again, I know I'm ignoring the future commitments to Granderson and the fact that Jackson, Coke and Kennedy are all young and controllable), I'd take Choice B over choice A. The Yankees are a team built to win now so if that trade was on the table right now for 2010, I'd do it. So there's a convoluted answer to your question, Jason from the Yankees side.

From the Tigers side? They saved exactly $0 How? $10.6 M (Damon, Coke, A. Jackson, Scherzer, Schlereth) minus $6.4 M (Granderson, Thames) minus $4.2 M (E. Jackson) = $0. So Dave Dombrowski's goal to save money continues to make me scratch my head at what the heck this guy is doing. That being said, if the trade of Granderson, Thames, and E. Jackson for Damon, Coke, A. Jackson, Scherzer and Schlereth came across my desk, I'd probably accept it as well. So, overall, I think both teams ended up all right with their moves this off-season, even if a lot of it was just poaching off of one another.

Picture from the New York Daily News

2 comments:

  1. Yeah, I debated whether or not to include the Schlereth/Scherzer portion of the deal.

    I'm still pleased with the Yanks' off-season, sentimentality aside. It's a cold business and the philosophy of "selling a year too early than a year too late" is not a bad one.

    I'm thrilled to have Granderson. A young, energetic, charismatic, "good guy" who can do it all (except hit lefties!) is a great addition.

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  2. Thanks, Jason. I have to say, I'm pleased with the off-season as well. I think that Cashman having complete control of the team has increased the percentage of moves that I approve. There's very few of the Jaret Wright-type deals where you cringe when you hear them.

    One thought on Granderson: Let's hope that it's the Yankees who didn't buy a year too early on him. One thing this off-season seems to signal is that the Tigers really weren't happy with his production. Let's hope they were wrong.

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