Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010 Pt 2

Back in December we took a trip in the time machine back to last off-season and looked at how close the Yankees came to the "Worst Case Scenario" series we did last year. We started with Part 1 and the starting lineup. Well let's continue that with theme today with Part 2, which was the starting pitching staff. By then I realized that non-Yankee fans were taking a lot of joy in my scenarios but it didn't stop me from looking at what would go horribly wrong if the pitching staff fell apart. Let's see how close we got to that scenario:

AJ Burnett was a "black eye" for the Yankees (FanHouse)

CC Sabathia
What I said worst-case would look like: "Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series...According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys."

What actually happened: Sabathia's arm and body held up another year's grind, starting an AL-leading 34 games, pitching 237.2 innings, and winning a Major League-leading 21 games. Sabathia was an All-Star, came in third in the Cy Young voting, and 13th in the MVP voting. He pitched about as well during the regular season as he did in his first year in Pinstripes (with less strikeouts but more groundballs). The issue for CC was when he hit the playoffs. After being stellar in 2009, he was so-so to bad in 2010. He started three times but only pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up a whopping 22 hits and 10 earned runs, striking out 15 but walking 7, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch, and being charged with a balk. Sabathia was a huge reason the Yankees made the playoffs (from August 7th-September 2nd he won every time he started), but for them to win the World Series in 2011, they need him to carry it through to the playoffs.

A.J. Burnett

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An Early Review of the Yankees 2010 Transactions

Yankees fans may have been spoiled by the 2009 season. After missing the 2008 playoffs, Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman went to work on building the 2009 team and added many important pieces including Sergio Mitre, Damaso Marte (a resigning), Andy Pettitte (ditto) Nick Swisher (for basically nothing), A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira. The mid-season trades worked out as well as they acquired Romulo Sanchez (a possible 2010 September call-up if healthy) for a spare part, Eric Hinske for more spare parts, Jerry Hairston, Jr. for yet more spare parts, and then picked up Chad Gaudin and Freddy Guzman during the waiver wire period. Every one of those players contributed in one way or another (except for Sanchez) to the 2009 World Series winning team and Brian Cashman came away looking like a genius who turned everything he touched into gold.

Thames has been Cashman's best off-season move to date (NYDN)

The Midas Touch didn't translate as well to 2010. The Yankees traded Brian Bruney for a Rule 5 draft pick (Jamie Hoffmann). They traded Phil Coke, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson. They signed Nick Johnson, traded and signed a ton of spare outfielders (Reid Gorecki, Greg Golson, Jason Pridie, Chad Huffman, etc.), traded for Javier Vazquez (and Boone Logan), signed Randy Winn, Royce Ring, Dustin Moseley, Marcus Thames, Chad Moeller, and Chan Ho Park. Since the season started they resigned Chad Gaudin, signed Eric Bruntlett and Chad Tracy (the latter which has been released), and traded for Austin Kearns, Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood.

While the 2010 mid-season moves have worked out to date, the off-season moves have not. Hoffmann lasted until March and then they returned him to the Dodgers (despite rumors he would be traded back, he's still with Los Angeles). Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson have all excelled for their new teams, and Granderson has been a huge disappointment for the Yankees*. Nick Johnson (injuries) and Javier Vazquez (ineffectiveness) both have been huge disasters in their return to the Yankees, and although Michael Dunn for Boone Logan is a wash and I don't think Melky Cabrera truly had a place on this team, Arodys Vizcaino (the prospect traded in the deal), dominated the Sally League going 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA, a WHIP under 1, and a SO/BB ratio of 7.33 before being promoted (and remains one of Atlanta's best prospects).

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Adding Another to the Team (and a few links)

We're not waiting until September 1st to expand our rosters here at NYaT. I'm happy to announce our newest permanent blogger (and our new Official Mets Blogger), Elissa Glucksman. E recently guest blogged about 5 reasons the Mets could make the playoffs in 2011 and before that had previewed Citi Field 2.0 for NYaT. Elissa even participated in a triathlon with former Mets manager, Bobby Valentine, as a partner. We're excited to see what else she has in store for us (there is some talk of Sarah and Elissa doing a blog series of sports from the feminine point of view). Please join me in welcoming Elissa to the NYaT team.

Omar Minaya will feel the wrath of new blogger, Elissa (NYDN)

Now for a few links:

• Someone else is keeping track of that whole CC Sabathia opt-out (as well as Joe Girardi's contract situation): Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues. Moshe Mandel of TYU tells us why Girardi isn't going anyplace.
• SI's Joe Posnanski nails arm injuries and pitching prospects in this great blog post. Then The Common Man at The Platoon Advantage takes down Rob Dibble.
• NoMass scores another great interview (this time with Yankees' SVP, Mark Newman) and talks about the Yankees farm system. Then Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus writes "just add [Brett Marshall] to the long list of Yankee pitching prospects who have taken a step in the right direction." I like the sound of that.
• Last week Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus handicapped the AL MVP race and the NL MVP race. It will be a close one.
• Rebecca of This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes on Kerry Wood. Sam Borden of LoHud on Tiger Woods and Derek Jeter. Aaron Gleeman of HardballTalk on the Yankees' "phantom disabled list". FanGraphs' Dave Cameron on the Minnesota Twins. Flip Flop Fly Ball on the many Yankees logos. Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues on HOPE week.
• The Big Lead on why Tony LaRussa is an idiot. Wall Street Journal's Brian Costa on why Ivan (Nova) is anything but terrible. ESPN's Jayson Stark with everything you would want to know about Roy Oswalt's night in left field.
• Eastbound and Down Season 2 (I can't wait)

Javier Vazquez is officially below replacement level according to FanGraphs (H/T Jay). More later.

The Yankee Clipper: A Great Win

It was one of those nights where I knew I had other things to do, but I was frozen on the couch watching the Yankee game. Down 6-1 to Cliff Lee the Yankees looked down and out, facing a two-game sweep and a three-game losing streak with Tampa Bay and Boston getting awfully close in the rear view mirror. And then they had one of those comebacks that you remember during every championship year. 7-6 final. Amazing. Let's talk about it:

A big high five to Thames for his performance last night (Star-Ledger)

1. Reminds me a lot of last year's win against the Braves. On June 24, 2009, the Yankees were 39-22, 5 games back in the American League East, and and having lost three in a row, 5 out of 6, and 9 out of 12. It was make or break for the Yankees as they faced the Atlanta Braves after having been shut out by a rookie (Tommy Hanson) the night before. They were being no-hit through 3 innings when all of a sudden Joe Girardi got himself tossed, Francisco Cervelli hit a home run, and the Yankees won the game on their way to a 7-game winning streak--and a 13 out of 15 game streak that launched them into first place. It was one of those games that is drilled into my skull as a great comeback and one of those defining moments of the season. Last night's win against Cliff Lee (an old-school battle the starter and come back against the bullpen win they used to have a lot against Pedro Martinez), felt like that to me. The team seemed like they were going to be a day late and a buck short like their previous two losses when they couldn't get a hit in the key situations. But, in the end, they did. I was exhilarated afterward and it look like the team was as well. Those types of wins can go a long way--especially if they face the Rangers again in October.
2. Marcus Thames has been in the middle of a few big wins this season. Brien @ IIATMS calls him a not-so-unlikely hero. On May 17th vs. Jonathan Papelbon and the Red Sox, Alex Rodriguez tied the game in the 9th inning with a home run and a few batters later, Marcus Thames hit a walk-off home run. Last night, Derek Jeter tied the game in the 9th inning and Marcus Thames got the go-ahead hit. Thames also blasted a home run (which I think brought down rain) an inning earlier in the game to bring the Yankees within one run. As Mark Feinsand of the Daily News writes, Marcus Thames is once again showing his value on the bench. When the Yankees went out and acquired Austin Kearns and Lance Berkman at the trade deadline, some wanted the Yankees to get rid of the slow, defensively challenged Thames. But the Yankees held on to him because of his bat. Most of that damage this year has done against lefties. But his two biggest hits of the season, have come vs. right-handed pitchers. Against lefties this year Thames is hitting .343/.416/.448 (with a .384 wOBA) with 1 HR and vs. righties he's he's hit .289/.393/.511 with 3 HR. It's a small sample size (and his BABIP is off-the-wall high) but this does show that Thames is truly a threat off the bench no matter who is pitching. A good thing to know before the playoffs start.
3. The Great Mariano as Houdini.

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The Yankee Clipper: Gardner, Montero, Rivera, Cliff Lee and the Bullpen

Let's take a break from debating about what is a sport (or not, the dialog has been quite fascinating) to talk about the Yankees for a while, shall we? Let's head into our Yankee Clipper on this "Dog Day of August" Wednesday in New York (and, by the way, not much is actually wrong with the Yankees; they're still the best team in baseball. Deep breath and move on):

The Yanks need to find Jesus...and bring him up (Times-Union)

1. Brett the Jet has been grounded. Brett Gardner on July 4th: .319/.401/.434. Brett Gardner since July 4th: .169/.302/.213. I know I sometimes am not so objective on Brett Gardner--man crushes can do that for you (if I could clone Brett Gardner and have the second one run errands for me, I would...and the errands would get done really quickly). But he's lost his way. You can't steal bases if you can't get on base. The team has gone 19-11 in those 30 games, but Gardner hasn't been a main part of the cause with only 4 XBH in 89 ABs. He's still playing great defense and has an excellent WAR of 2.8 for the season, but you need to worry if he's hit a wall or teams are now adjusting to him better. Gardner is a slap hitter who can ill afford a large amount of Ks yet he's struck out over 30% of his official ABs since July 4th. His weighted on base average (wOBA) for August is .093 and he still hasn't walked in the month. Gardner needs to get himself straightened out--and fast (though the latter part of the wish is not a hard thing for the Speediest White Man).
2. Jesus rising? Matt at TYU says that we're stuck with Francisco Cervelli but down on the farm the Yankees are seeing their top prospect, Jesus Montero CRUSH the ball at Triple-A. Hopefully in 6 years the Wall Street Journal will be writing about how the Mariners passed on Montero like Brian Costa of WSJ wrote today about how the Texas Rangers passed on Robinson Cano. Sean at Pending Pinstripes says it's still too soon. Brien @ IIATMS defers to the Yankees management. Rebecca at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes says it's time. Here is video proof (H/T River Ave Blues) of Montero crushing a game-winning home run two nights ago. I can agree right now not to call him up (there's no spot for him), but if Jorge Posada lands on the disabled list with his cranky shoulder (or really anyone goes on the DL), I think Montero should be in the Bronx. At the very least, he should be up in about 2 weeks when rosters expand. This is a team that has a .297 wOBA in August as Larry from Yankeeist points out (though, to be fair, he also points out how good the pitching they've faced has been). No excuse for Montero not to be a September call-up.  For now, we need to just pray for Francisco like many pray for Jesus--Montero, that is.

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Trivia Tuesday: Javy Vazquez Edition

With his next win, Javier Vazquez will have reached double digit wins for the 11th straight season. Who are the last three pitchers to have 11-season streaks of 10 wins or more?

Bonus question: 3 players all-time have 20 or more seasons of double digit wins. Can you name them?

Put your answers in the comments below and I'll reveal the correct answers later. Good luck!

The Yankee Clipper: Starting Pitching

I was all ready to write today's Yankee Clipper on the Yankees starting rotation but then this weekend happened. A.J. Burnett punched something and had to leave the game with cuts on his hand Saturday and then Sunday and Andy Pettitte left early yesterday with a groin strain that will keep him out at least the rest of the month. So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the status update I'll now do for their starters. But here we go into the starting rotation:

1. Andy Pettitte. Yesterday's game marked the first time that Pettitte didn't go 5 innings in a start this season and in those 18 starts, he's only given up more than 4 earned runs once (6 against the Rays in May). Pettitte came into yesterday 11-2 (league-leading .846 winning percentage) with a 2.70 ERA and I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that he's been the Yankees' most consistent starter so far this season. So then the starter that the Yankees have counted on so much this season (the team is 15-3 in games he starts) left early with a groin injury. Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman estimates that Pettitte will be out 4-5 weeks, but the injury expert, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, thinks that may be overly cautious and thinks that Pettitte will be back the second of August. Before the injury, Pettitte was on pace for 20 wins and had his lowest American League ERA since 1997--but he was also on pace to throw 205 innings for the first time since 2007. Yankees fans remember that in 2008 Pettitte had arm troubles so if there is one silver lining for the Yankees, it is that Pettitte will be well-rested down the stretch. But that is of little consolation to the Yankees who are without the AL All-Star Pettitte for a while now. Pettitte has been exceptionally good in 2010 at limiting the amount of hits against him and decreasing the amount of walks he issues, though the former may be somewhat due to luck--Pettitte's .274 BABIP is well-below his career .314 and his 3.97 FIP and 4.06 xFIP reflects that fact. But Pettitte has produced results so far for the Yankees. According to FanGraphs, some of it is due to his cut fastball and curveball being more effective than they've been in years and ditching the slider (which was a bad pitch for him in 2009). The Yankees must be pretty upset right now they didn't get Cliff Lee and they hope that Andy is Dandy for them again soon. If the Yankees can get Pettitte back by the second week in August and have him for the stretch drive, I think they'd take that. Pettitte is usually his best in the second half and the Yankees need the 2001 ALCS MVP to defend their World Series title. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.12 ERA, 25 K, .602 OPS against.
2. A.J. Burnett. If the Yankees hadn't been winning the past two years, you have to imagine that people would be getting a bit more upset with Burnett's performance in Pinstripes. Last year he had an up-and-down season where he dominated at times but led the league in walks and wild pitches showing that other times he was all over the place. The only thing that Burnett is consistent in is his inconsistency. 2010 started out well for Burnett but has seen him dip to a losing record, an ERA pushing 5, and a Major League worst 12 hit batters. He's allowed no earned runs in 5 starts but he's also allowed 6 or more earned runs 6 times. Through the end of May, Burnett was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Since, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has gone to the dark side as he's 1-6 with a 8.15 ERA and .965 OPS against in his past 8 starts. His last start ended early after his punching incident which he blamed on "falling" originally before being caught. I love the pies he brings and his swagger at times on the mound, but Burnett's lack of maturity at times is disheartening and his inability to compose himself is frustrating. Carroll writes about Burnett: "Burnett is certainly not the first pitcher to do something stupid. The meme of a pitcher hitting something with his pitching hand is so strong that it's a full scene in Bull Durham. Burnett cut his hands on a plexiglass lineup holder. Burnett is expected to be back for his next start, though there are some whispers that there could be a push-back if he doesn't make his throw day and show that the cuts won't be an issue." Not exactly what the Yankees were looking for from their #2 starter coming into the season. Burnett's problem is that when he's bad, he's really bad. In his wins, Burnett holds opposing hitters to a .191/.251/.231 line and in his losses it jumps to .363/.453/.701--meaning that in his losses, Burnett isn't even giving his team a good chance to win. Most disturbing for me about Burnett though is about in his results on the field where we've seen his K/9 drop from 9.56 in 2007 to 9.39 in 2006 to 8.48 in 2009 to only 6.71 this season. That's a big concern for the Yankees as Burnett's true value comes from his ability to finish guys off after he gets himself into jams. There is still some debate about whether this inability to gets misses with the bats are due to lost velocity or just not being able to locate the curveball as R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs suggested a month ago. But whatever is the culprit, this is not good news for the Yankees who are still on the hook for 3 more expensive years of Burnett after 2010. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.43 ERA, 20 K, 1.200 WHIP, .660 OPS against.

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The Yankee Clipper: We're Going Streaking

The Yankees have hit their soft part of their schedule and after taking 3 of 4 against the Indians, the Yankees just finished off a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles. After the bats had gone silent for a few weeks, health has come back to the Yankees and so has their Bronx Bomber persona. Those bats mixed with great pitching has allowed the Yankees to take advantage and beat up on bad teams. Let's take a look at how we got here:

1. Javy Vazquez, Curtis Granderson, and a break in Game 1. ESPN's TMI blog summarized why Javier Vazquez won and it was pretty simple: he threw first pitch strikes (73% of the time), he kept the ball down (set season-highs with 64 pitches down, 9 ground ball outs, and 52.9% of balls in play resulted in ground-balls), and he got swings and misses (27.5%, his second-highest mark this year). I know that this was "only the Orioles", but pitching is really that simple: keep the ball down, throw first pitch strikes and get swings and misses. As Mark Feinsand of The Daily News points out, the one run that Vazquez gave up was on a pitch up to Corey Patterson. The overall numbers are ugly, but since they skipped his start in early May, Vazquez has pitched in 5 games has a 2.77 ERA and has a .202/.270/.348 line against. Granderson is also out to prove people wrong by hitting lefties and he continued that movement in Game 1 by hitting a home run. As LoHud's Chad Jennings pointed out, Joba Chamberlain also bounced back nicely. And a costly error by Miguel Tejada gave the Yankees the extra runs needed to seal a 3-1 win.
2. Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Granderson in Game 2. I was at this game and wrote about it from there. ESPN's Buster Olney gives us more details about why Hughes won: "He held Orioles hitters to just 1-for-15 after the count got to two strikes, including 0-for-9 against his fastball. Hughes registered five of his seven strikeouts with the fastball on the night. Hughes challenged Orioles hitters with his fastball up in the zone with success. Hughes got four of his five strikeouts on the fastball on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone. Hughes went to three balls on just one hitter and to a 2-0 count on only two hitters."
3. Today was about CC Sabathia returning to form and A-Rod and Brett Gardner getting in on the power game. CC Sabathia wasn't great today, but what he did well was keep runners off base. The Yankees have been getting great pitching from AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte but this team really took off last season when the hefty lefty was at his best. As Mike from Yankeeist writes, the Yankees made it a lot more interesting than it needed to be, especially Mariano Rivera in the 9th inning but Jay from Fack Youk points out that despite the fact that the Orioles brought the tying run to the plate it never felt like the sweep was going to get away from the Yankees. The Yankees have to be happy to see Gardner and A-Rod starting to swing the bats well again.

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The Yankee Clipper: A Series Win Before Heading Back to the Bronx

The Yankees lost for the first time in Minnesota since August of 2008 last night but they still leave Minnesota with a series win and head home to face what should be the easy part of their schedule (here's a look at their pitching probables from Zell's Pinstripe Blog). Since it's been a while since we've done a Yankee Clipper, let's look at how we got here, shall we?

1. A split with Boston, a 2-game loss to Tampa, and then a series loss to the Mets. Yeah, it's been a while since we've done one of these. Tampa seems to be on another level than the rest of the majors, this past week's series against Boston notwithstanding. The split with Boston was disappointing since they had every chance to win that second game including a 5-1 lead and a rally towards the end. The Mets series was even more disappointing as the bats went dead (a theme that has carried through since). Jason Bay continues to be a Yankee killer. Jason @ IIATMS looks into whether the Yankees are waiting for the big hit and while many Yankee fans were busy panicking, Steve at River Ave Blues put everything into perspective. Also to be put in perspective, the Yankees have been playing without Curtis Granderson who returns tonight and Matt from TYU looks at what Granderson's return means to the Yankees. I think it means more protection in a lineup that has recently been pretty bad throughout, especially the middle of the line-up. Getting Granderson back could allow the Yankees to move Swisher into the #2 hole, Granderson into the #6 hole and Gardner further back in the lineup where he thrived earlier in the season.
2. The Yankees still have Minnesota's number. Two one-run games (one suspended) went to the Yankees in the first two. Home runs by Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher in a park that has shown to be very hard to homer in were the difference. Jeter's bad and glove had been questioned recently so it was good for him to show up. So calls about his defense and moving him out of the lead-off spot will have to wait for now.
3. But other teams still have Javier Vazquez's number. Despite looking really good in his last two starts, Vazquez didn't look quite as good last night going for the sweep. Maybe it was that bunt attempt that he took off of his finger...or maybe he really hasn't turned a corner just yet (or maybe he's historically struggled against some of the Twins). Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily writes that just when Javy looked like he had turned the corner, last night happened, and Joe from River Ave Blues writes that there was some good, but mostly bad last night.

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Biggest Fantasy Baseball Surprises: Outfielders, DHs and Pitchers

Yesterday we looked at the biggest fantasy baseball surprises in the infield, today we'll look at those that play the outfield, are solely utility, starting pitchers or relief pitchers. All stats and rankings courtesy of Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball. Here we go:

Utility (AKA DH)

Biggest Surprise - Vladamir Guerrero. Former Angels made popular fantasy baseball draft picks from John Lackey to Chone Figgins. But who would have thought that the best former Angel was going to be Vladamir Guerrero. He was ranked the 145th best player coming into this season and is now the second best player in baseball and looking like his MVP form of the past (as well as a sure-fire candidate to go back to Anaheim for the All-Star Game). He's hitting .339 with 29 runs, 12 HR, 42 RBI, and 4 SB.  Two points to make. One is that the weather hasn't really gotten hot so the balls are going to start jumping out even more in Texas this summer. And two, the craziest point about this whole thing is that if the Rangers had completed their trade for Mike Lowell in the off-season, Vlady may be sitting with Jermaine Dye at home still looking for work. Picture from USA Today 

Biggest Disappointment - Pat Burrell. This is pretty bad. Burrell was drafted in a fair amount of leagues for those hoping to get a bounce-back year from the Tampa DH. But he rewarded those people (and the Rays) with a .202 average, 9 runs, 2 HR and 13 RBI in 84 ABs before being released. Ouch. For a small market team such as Tampa, that's gotta hurt.

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The Yankee Clipper: Despite Great Pitching, a Doubleheader Split

Two days after losing a tough game to the Tigers (and Jose Valverde's chicken dance) and one day after being rained out, the Yankees went back at it again yesterday with a day-night doubleheader. It's odd how it turns out, but most of the time, no matter how unbalanced the teams might be, it usually ends up that doubleheaders get split. Last night was no exception. The Tigers took the afternoon affair and the Yankees won the evening game. Let's take a look at how that happened:

1. Javier Vazquez's best start of the season. If he wasn't making over $11 million, you would probably feel bad for the guy. After being all out of whack this season, he pitched a really good game giving up only 2 runs over seven strong innings, striking out 7--and his team got shutout for the first time all season. The two runs were on groundballs that just snuck through the infield so hopefully this is a start that Vazquez can build on as we move forward. Mike at River Ave Blues noted that Vazquez worked at a quicker pace and with confidence--and that is usually half the battle with struggling pitchers--and got 16 swings and misses. Vazquez was a little wild early on but settled down to retired 14 of 15 at one point. In the words of Herm Edwards "we can build on this!"
2. Phil Hughes' continued dominance. Johnny Damon told Mark Feinsand of the Daily News that Hughes could be the ace on 15-20 teams in Major League Baseball. LoHud's Chad Jennings agrees. At this point, they may be right. You forget how young he is, too--he won't turn 24 until June 24th. The only Yankees in the past 30 years to win more games than Hughes by age 24 were Andy Pettitte, Dave Righetti, and Bob Wickman. Hughes leads the league in ERA (1.38), wins (5), H/9 (5.077), ERA+ (289), Win Probability Added (1.7), 2nd in WHIP (.923), 4th in HR/9 (.231), 4th in WAR (1.3) and 6th in K/9 (9.000). Hughes' FIP is 2.50 and his xFIP is 3.60 so you expect that ERA to creep up a bit (he's probably going to give up another home run at some point), but so far he's been fabulous. The regular season domination we saw last year with Hughes as a set-up man has translated into Hughes as a confident starter. His cutter has been a tremendous pitch for him.

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The Yankee Clipper: The Disappointing Five

On Monday we looked a five April surprises. Today, we'll look at five early-season disappointments. Now for a team that's off to as hot a start as the Yankees, there are few of them. And coming off of another series win, complaining may look petty. But there are some not-so-bright spots and it's worth our while to point them out. First, let's talk about another big series win with the big 3 of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte picking up big wins (and then Andy's injury), Joba getting two saves, and everyone chipping in for big hits. This was a team that was without Jorge Posada, without Mariano Rivera, without Curtis Granderson, and didn't have Joba at their disposal on Wednesday afternoon--and they still were able to sweep an Orioles team that had just swept the Red Sox, themselves. So impressive wins all around and hopefully some momentum coming into Boston this weekend. Without further ado, let's get to the 5 disappointments so far this season:

1. Nick Johnson - The #2 hitter hasn't exactly been "Nick the Stick" so far this season. His .171 average and .314 slugging are pretty putrid. But his OBP is amazingly .396 thanks to 24 walks (2nd in the AL) and leaves his wOBA at a manageable .339. So instead of "Nick the Stick" he's been more like Johnny Walker's motto of "Keep on Walking". Nick is also 3rd in the AL with 4.40 pitches per plate appearance. The problem for Johnson is that while his walks are really high--and he's walking exactly 25% of the time so far this season--his strikeout percentage is the highest of his career at 31.4%. Chris at TYU writes that Johnson may be facing a bit of bad luck and his current BAbip of .217 (his career mark is .309) seems to suggest that's the case. Since he's started growing his mustache, Johnson has hit a bit better. But the struggles don't stop at the Yankees' #2 hitter.
2. Mark Teixeira - Maybe we should get used to slow starts from Tex, but it still doesn't make it any less disappointing. He's hitting a cold .178/.325/.297 with a .295 wOBA, 2 HR (and only 8 XBH total for the guy who tied for the AL home run title last year). His one saving grace is his good defense, which, according to FanGraphs, helps to even out his WAR at ZERO. Yes, zero. His one saving grace on offense has been his 20 walks and his 4.32 pitches per plate appearance (which is a career-high pace and good for 8th in the AL). But if he doesn't start hitting soon, I doubt many will be offering him free passes in front of A-Rod. Speaking of the #4 hitter...
3. Alex Rodriguez - It's amazing that this team could be playing so well with the heart of their lineup at 2, 3 and 4 doing so poorly. Last year, with Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira and A-Rod having huge second halves, that part of the lineup carried the team. A-Rod didn't come back until about this time last year, so in some ways, it's just like 2009. A-Rod's done very little so far. He's actually played good defense according to UZR (1.1 but small sample size, of course) and his .253/.345/.414 line is not horrific...but he's not doing much of anything else. He has 2 HR, his ISO is at a career-low .162 and he has 1 stolen base to his name (he's averaged 20 SB a year with the Yankees). A-Rod has actually struck out at a lower rate than any other time in his career (15.2%) and part of his problems may be bad luck as well (.274 BAbip compared to a career mark of .321). But even with those facts, it's hard to ignore that the hardest hits that A-Rod has had have come from Dallas Braden. 

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If You Needed Another Reason to Root for Javy Vazquez...

...you got it. Curt Schilling has opened his big mouth again and hopefully it lights a fire under Javy Vazquez and brings Yankee fans together to rally around this guy. Schilling, who is never one to shy away from expressing his opinions, did just that yesterday on "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" according to ESPN New York:

"I never ever thought the move to New York the first time was a good one [for Vazquez]. And I didn't think this [move] was good as well," Schilling said. "I don't think he suddenly learned how to pitch when he went back to Atlanta and dealt last year. He's a phenomenal National League pitcher. It's hard to say this without sounding disrespectful and I don't mean it that way -- the National League is an easier league to pitch in, period. And some guys aren't equipped to get those same outs in the American League, and he's one of those guys."

He's not done yet, either. Schilling also said on the radio show that he doesn't think Vazquez is comfortable with the media glare that comes with playing in New York.

"[Vazquez] thrived in Montreal and he thrived in Atlanta, and those are both second-tier cities from a baseball passion perspective. He's not a guy that I've ever felt was comfortable in the glow," Schilling said. "You're seeing what you're gonna get from him consistently all year. Having said that, he could turn around next week and throw a one-hitter with his stuff. I just don't see him being a consistent winner in the American League."

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The Yankee Clipper: Same 'ole in Anaheim

No matter how much things change, they always seem to stay the same. The Yankees overcame their inability to beat the Angels in last year's American League Championship Series, but they still are unable to beat them in Anaheim (or is it Los Angeles?). Even last year, en route to winning the series, the Yankees dropped 2 out of 3 in California. The latest iteration was no different--a loss, followed by a win, followed by a tough loss. Let's review:

1. Javier Vazquez was not good. Listen, I'm a Javy Vazquez fan and I think he'll be fine, but this is not the start that helps me to prove that. Not even to myself anymore. How bad is it? Well consider this stat from ESPN's TMI blog: "Vazquez's ERA jumped to 9.00, matching the worst-ever April ERA by a Yankee who pitched at least 20 innings." For my friend Paul who is NOT a Javy fan, I will say this: BRUTAL! That's a horrible start. Jason @ IIATMS debates whether this is a result of a small sample size (and maybe bad luck) or time to panic. Chris at TYU defends Javy a little, saying, at the very least that he's probably not a "gutless bitch". Vazquez claims to be embarrassed by all this and Joe Girardi thinks it's mechanical. Let's hope so. At least that can be corrected.
2. What exactly happened before the Kendry Morales home run? I'm still confused. And, although some will sweep it under the rug, it was a big at-bat in a one-run game. It was runners on 1st and 2nd for Morales vs. Damaso Marte with David Robertson ready in the bullpen and Juan Rivera on deck. Girardi left in Marte. Francisco Cervelli rose from the catcher's stance like they were intentionally walking him and took ball one. Now this seemed like an odd move to me and the rest of the Twitter universe took the task of asking why the Yankee would walk someone when 3rd base was the one that was open. I guess Girardi was checking out his Twitter feed because he decided that they were going to now pitch to Morales. So Marte threw ball 2...and then ball 3. Right before the next pitch was going to be thrown, I saw Girardi signal something to Cervelli. I thought that signal was to let him know to just put Morales on base. Instead, the signal was to let Cervelli know that Morales will swing 3-0 and not to groove one over. Instead, Marte grooved one over and it was crushed out for a three run shot. A close one-run game became an easy four-run lead for the Angels and they never looked back. Girardi looked upset at the time and took all the blame for the Yankees. I know it was just one play, but for a team that prides themselves on professionalism and fundamentals, that was a big hiccup in a bad spot. The New York Times' Ben Shpigel talks about how out of character that was for Girardi.

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The Yankee Clipper: A-Rod Disses Dallas

Not exactly Debbie Does Dallas, but because A-Rod is involved, there's just as much controversy. The Yankees take their 5th series to start a season matching the 1926 squad and two wins in Los Angeles this week would set a new franchise record. Before we get there, let's look at the series that was:

1. A-Rod vs. Dallas Braden. Here's my quick opinion: Dallas Braden was wrong and A-Rod was wrong in how he responded to it. As far as A-Rod's controversies go, this ranks pretty low on the list. Everyone weighed in: The New York Times' Ben Shpigel (picture to the right from that article), ESPN's Wallace Matthews, LoHud's Sam Borden, HarballTalk's Craig Calcaterra, River Ave Blues' Mike Axisa, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal (with a quote from Tim McCarver), Mark Feinsand of the Daily News, TonyBlogs, the Posts's Joel Sherman (who made an unfunny joke), and Jay from Fack Youk (who weighed in on everyone weighing in). Twitter users oh_gee_en and LadyBlueICU came up with funny pictures. 'Duk from Big League Stew summed it up nicely: "You can read more of [what Braden and A-Rod said] at MLB.com or listen to his interview at the LoHud Yankees Blog....On one hand, it's nice for A's fans to see that one of their young guns won't cede any ground or be intimidated by one of the best players on the defending world champs...But on the other, there's something to be said for knowing your spot in the game and earning enough capital to call out a perennial All-Star over something so petty." ESPN's Rob Neyer adds another layer to it: "There's something odd about this, though: The inning was over. Braden wasn't on the mound anymore. It wasn't his mound."
2. Oh, by the way, the Yankees turned a triple play yesterday (no, not that triple play or that triple play). According to John and Suzyn, it was the first triple play turned by the Yankees in a long time. According to the broadcast team, the last one was June 3rd, 1968: Dooley Womack to Bobby Cox to Mickey Mantle ("yes that Bobby Cox and yes that Mickey Mantle"). More than 6600 games ago. I saw one in person last year (unassisted) when the Mets had one turned on them in Citi Field (DJ AM threw out the first pitch that game, sadly enough). It's a really cool feat. Too bad they couldn't follow it up with a win. Quick side note: I also got to hear Suzyn say during the broadcast: "Isn't texting just the best thing in the world." Ummm...

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Some Good News For Javy Vazquez

Since the man can use some good news before his start tonight in Oakland, I ran Javier Vazquez's numbers vs. the current Athletics hitters (including postseason) on Baseball-Reference. Here were the results:

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP
Travis Buck	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Rajai Davis	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Ryan Sweeney	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Kurt Suzuki	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	.111	.200	.111	.311	0	0	0	1
Gabe Gross	8	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	.000	.375	.000	.375	0	0	0	0
Mark Ellis	17	16	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	.188	.235	.188	.423	0	0	0	0
Kevin Kouzmanoff	6	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.167	.167	.333	.500	0	0	0	0
Eric Chavez	12	10	1	0	0	1	3	2	2	.100	.250	.400	.650	0	0	0	0
Jack Cust	9	8	1	0	0	1	2	1	2	.125	.222	.500	.722	0	0	0	0
Coco Crisp	17	16	5	0	0	1	3	1	3	.313	.353	.500	.853	0	0	0	0
Daric Barton	6	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	.400	.500	.400	.900	0	0	0	0
Jake Fox	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0
Eric Patterson	7	5	1	0	0	1	2	2	1	.200	.429	.800	1.229	0	0	0	0
Cliff Pennington	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0	0	0	0
Total	105	93	18	2	0	4	12	11	17	.194	.286	.344	.630	0	0	0	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/20/2010.

As you can see, only Coco Crisp has had sustained success against Vazquez and he's on the disabled list. Of course, these are all small sample sizes, but Vazquez has look pretty good against tonight's foe in the past. Let's hope the success can continue tonight.

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