Friday, July 30, 2010

NYaT's Yankee Wishlist for the Trade Deadline

It's hard to "fix" a team that's on pace to win 104 regular season games, has the best record and run differential in baseball, and has won more games at home than Baltimore has in their entire season--but we're going to try. With the trade deadline fast approaching and Tampa Bay right on the Yankees' heels, I asked my fellow NYaT'ers what they think the Yankees need to do to put this group over the top. A compiled list of results below: 
Brett the Jet hitting #1 could help Yanks (Star-Ledger)

1. Move Brett Gardner to the leadoff spot. I'm not sure why this hasn't been done already, but I'm going to throw this out there as my personal "big fix" for the Yankees. The Yankees have argued that hitting him 9th gives them a "second leadoff hitter". Explain to me that logic? Why not just have him as your first leadoff hitter? Gardner is hitting .300/.397/.403 with a .372 wOBA and is on pace for almost 50 steals. Derek Jeter is having a down year, hitting .274/.338/.388 with a .324 wOBA which is just a tick under Juan Miranda's. And yet Jeter is unmovable from the leadoff spot while Gardner is left for the bottom 3rd of the lineup? The Yankees have been at a loss to find their #2 hitter since Nick Johnson went down with an injury early in the season, but I'm pretty sure their solution has just been hitting first. Imagine how much better the Yankees lineup would be with Gardner-Jeter-Tex-ARod-Cano-Posada-Swisher. Moving Swisher down creates more of a fluid lineup and will stretch their lineup even deeper. Gardner also gets on base vs. lefties (remember when the Yankees were worried about his right-handed caddy for Gardner instead of for Granderson) with a .391 OBP.

And here's another factor: Gardner leads the Major Leagues in pitchers per plate appearance at 4.61 (and by a lot). The last guy to even approach that number was Rickey Henderson's 4.55 in 1997. That many pitches makes the starter work harder and helps to tire him out faster. And, by the way, the last Yankee to have an OBP of at least .397 and steal 45 bases? Rickey Henderson in 1985. I'm not saying that Gardner is Rickey--but wouldn't you want to give him more plate appearances to find out?

Joba hasn't stepped up as the "Bridge to Mariano" (NYDN)
2. An upgrade in the bullpen. This is where my compadres and I differ in our opinions. I've seen the Yankees waste decent prospects on mediocre relievers just to theoretically get a small advantage before the trade deadline. I saw the Red Sox go out and get Eric Gagne in 2007. I'm just not a fan of the big fix reliever. I don't think they exist. You need a closer, and some solid guys in front and that's it, in my opinion. The Yankees could tweak that bullpen by calling back up Jonathan Albaladejo and Ivan Nova (and getting rid of dead weight guys like CHoP and Chad Gaudin). But others differed.

Paul said: "They don’t need to do much but the one issue is the bullpen. They need help, I just don’t know who. I would love Scott Downs but the Jays are asking too much. I don’t want them to trade any good prospects for middle relief so they should be careful. I also hope they don’t trade Joba."

Ben said: "Don't like the idea of taking a really shitty team's closer and making him a setup man. Somehow Matt Capps and Octavio Dotel don't exactly do it for me. As bad as Joba's been the ceiling on him is still higher than either of those guys. The guy I would consider, even though he walks a ton of guys, is Carlos Marmol. 91 strikeouts in 48 innings." (though--editors note here--I don't think the Cubs are trading Marmol).

Jay said: "My Yankees "wish list" before the 2010 trading deadline is short. In fact, I only wish for one thing: bullpen help. As Jeremy Greenhouse discussed tongue-in-cheek, it's not enough to have strong starting pitching and Mariano at the back end of the bullpen. You need a strong bridge. The 2010 Yankees do not have one. Joba has been a roller coaster most of the year. Same with Damaso Marte. David Robertson has good stuff but his confidence is suspect, which is a problem down the stretch and in the playoffs. Jonathan Albaladejo has looked great in his cups of coffee in the bigs, and Boone Logan has impressed as well. But Girardi might want to keep Logan as the team's top lefty specialist and Albaladejo might not be ready for the 8th inning role. So there are holes that can be filled. Overall, the Yankees are built like the best team in baseball, and that's why they have the best record. I'd just prefer to shore up our biggest weakness -- the 7th and 8th inning bridges to Mariano Rivera."

My feeling: you really don't need to worry about the bridge. Last year the Yankees' bridge appeared out of nowhere and really wasn't formed until Damaso Marte showed up in the playoffs. Mike Stanton is a glorified Yankee because of his role in the bridge to Mariano but the truth on him hurts a bit--he wasn't on the 1996 team (despite a lot of revisionist history), his two best years were 1997 and 2001 (when the Yankees didn't win the World Series), and his worst year--1998--the Yankees won 125 games. In the 1998 regular season Stanton had a 5.47 ERA and gave up 13 home run. Cliff Lee has given up 13 homers the past two seasons--combined. I'm not saying you don't need effective middle relievers (and, hey if Joba Chamberlain hadn't had a few bad pitches, he may have looked solid as well), but winning in October is about good starting pitching, timely hitting and having a solid closer. It's not worth going out and giving up a top prospect for another Jay Witasik or Mark Wohlers or Gabe White (and look how the Twins gave up their top catching prospect, Wilson Ramos, for Matt freaking Capps).

The one thing we all did agree on, though: it's time to DFA Chan Ho "and away we go!" (H/T Malter)

3. Another starting pitcher would be nice...but they don't need one. I think we all agreed on this point. Cliff Lee would have been great and Dan Haren would have been nice, but no one else available represents a significant upgrade over what they have currently (unless Zack Greinke really is available).

Jay: "I am confident enough in the rotation. Pettitte will be back, Burnett has improved, and Javy has been strong recently, so I don't want to trade any B+ or better prospects for a 5th starter such as Ted Lilly or Jake Westbrook"

Is Frankie a good enough option if Jorge misses time? (LoHud)
Ben: "Another pitcher would be nice...I think what you see out of Dustin Moseley will determine whether they go out and get someone."

My prediction: the Yankees pick up a 5th starter after July 31st on the waiver wire when they decide they want to move Phil Hughes to the bullpen and limit his innings. Until then, I think they stand pat.

4. Another option at catcher. Ben says "We need another catcher, especially if Posada will continue to DH several times a week. I know you've thrown around John Buck, Jose Molina, and Ryan Doumit."

I agree with Ben here. The Yankees are treading on thin ice if they expect Francisco Cervelli to be a serviceable everyday catcher. Since June 1st, Cervelli has a .529 OPS and has 4 extra base hits in 100 ABs (in his past 50 ABs he has 1 XBH and a .426 OPS). For a backup catcher, Cervelli is fine...but if Posada is going to be DH'ing quite a bit or is going to miss any time, the Yankees may want to have some insurance.

Although the Yankees have Chad Moeller sitting down in Triple-A, they also have a streaking catcher named Jesus Montero who may deserve a call up at some point if Posada really can't catch. In July Montero is hitting .379/.493/.672 with 5 2B, 4 HR, 11 RBI and more walks (13) than strikeouts (10). He's finally hitting the tar out of the ball like many expected and I think it may be time to give Jesus a try. 

If not, put guys like Chris Snyder and Gregg Zaun on the list of players the Yankees may want to look at--though both could probably be had after the deadline as well.

Dunn would like OK in Pintsripes--but better not on the Rays (NYP)
5. Bat off of the bench/DH. I think this is where the Yankees are going to improve their team at the deadline. Last year they made small deals in acquiring Eric Hinske and Jerry Hairston, Jr. and both proved to have huge impacts. I don't think they necessarily need a bat like Dunn for the DH spot--but if acquiring him means keeping him away from the Rays, I do it. He would amazing in that lineup (some love him, some hate him, I'm a huge fan if he doesn't have to play the field much), getting on base and launching moonshots into rightfield. I don't have the same affection towards Lance Berkman (though River Ave Blues does) and even Berkman I would take if the price was right. I still think Jose Bautista or Ty Wigginton almost make too much sense but the Blue Jays and Orioles probably won't deal them in the division.

While Ramiro Pena provides speed and defense off the bench, his bat may not be enough to carry him. I'm not a fan of Willie Bloomquist (who does nothing to improve the team with his putrid hitting) but would check in on guys like Jeff Keppinger and Juan Uribe (with Edgar Renteria on the Giants, I wonder if they'd consider dealing Uribe). I would even see if the Rockies would deal Melvin Mora who would be an interesting bench bat for the Yankees. And Austin Kearns wouldn't be a sexy pickup, but I think he would be a good one.

Ben: "They have Marcus Thames as a righty bat off the bench but could really use a stronger lefty hitter, preferably and outfielder. That eliminates Casey Kotchman and Lyle Overbay. David DeJesus would have been the guy, had he not gone down with a season ending injury. Any thoughts on Jack Cust as an option?" (editors note: Cust is a lefty who hasn't been good against lefties in 2010 and probably a guy that the A's would have to be blown away to trade)

Jay: "I like our defense and our help off the bench. What we lack in power off the bench, we make up for in terms of defense, utility, and speed."

So what do you think? Where would you like the Yankees to add or change before the trade deadline? Let us know in the comments below!

12 comments:

  1. A comment came in via Twitter (http://twitter.com/monbud/statuses/19918154840) that I wanted to make sure got on the board:

    "@monbud: @NoYoureATowel Also the 2010 Yankees have the third-best record through 100 games in franchise history! One bench guy and one bullpen arm."

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  2. From Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal (http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/19918745240):

    "@Ken_Rosenthal: Rival exec still believes #Yankees are in heavy on Dunn. Their "we're out" message was directed at #Nationals: Quit messing around! #MLB"

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  3. I agree about moving Gardner up but I worry again about Jeter on a down year in the 2 spot. Will he ground into more double-plays? If he was anyone else but Derek Jeter he'd be moving down in the lineup.

    Also, as for the bullpen, don't discount Phil Hughes making a trip back to the 8th inning if the Yankees make the postseason.

    Cust would be ok as a lefty bat because they have Thames as a righty bat. Adam Dunn would be a great pickup (despite what JP Ricciardi had to say about him). Also, I read an article written either by him or about him a couple of years ago after being traded to Arizona. He was asked about participating in his first postseason and all he could speak about was how excited he was and how the additional level of competition energizes him and allows him to thrive in it.

    Sidenote - Stanton's postseason performances, particularly in 2000, were stellar compared to his regular seasons stats.

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  4. I'll tell you what else I love about moving Gardner into the leadoff spot and putting Jeter in the 2 hole. Gardner is a threat to steal every time he gets on base. Every team is going to hold him, which opens up a huge hole on the right side of the infield. Derek, as we know, loves to shoot the ball the opposite way in between 1B and 2B. It's a tailor-made hit-and-run situation every time Gardner gets to first base. Great way to start rallies.

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  5. Jay's comment is exactly why I don't think Jeter would ground into as many GIDPs: Gardner would be on the move a lot more if he was #1 and Jeter was #2.

    Also, Jeter has come to the plate 98 times in the first inning and has made an out more than 2/3 of the time. Now I think productive outs are overrated, but if he was making those outs and moving a runner over, wouldn't that be better than making the outs with no one on base?

    Seems simple to me!

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  6. Makes me wonder if moving Jeter out of the leadoff spot is like moving Jeter out of SS. Obviously it's not exactly apples-to-apples. But Jeter is Jeter. El Capitan. Moving him from A to B because he is playing poorly (or flat out failing at something) is not easy to do.

    Even if he is subtle about things, and even if he and the media haven't made a big issue about this, he's sensitive. He has an ego, even if it's not as huge or obvious as A-Rod's. I mean, the guy won't even talk about life after playing SS. So perhaps there's some pressure on Girardi to leave Jeter in the leadoff spot, even if it's not the best situation for the team.

    Hey, it's possible...

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  7. Jeter has started 690 games at leadoff and 1255 games in the two hole. Why would that be a demotion? Why would there be any pressure on Girardi to do something detrimental to the team when it probably won't offend anyone? Girardi decided at the end of S-T last year to flip-flop Jeter and Damon and no one said boo. Why would it be any different now?

    Here's an amazing thing--look at these splits in the two spots:

    #1: .314/.386/.459
    #2: .315/.385/.458

    As the prosecutor from My Cousin Vinny would say: "I-[clap]-dentical"

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  8. Oh, I agree. I'm just offering one possible theory as to why this seemingly-obvious move hasn't been made already. It's not a great theory, but it's an idea.

    The only difference -- and this is a small one -- is that it's one thing to make a change at the end of S-T right before the season starts. That move occurs before anyone has played a single R-S game. But to do it after the ASB? It would indicate, in a somewhat more obvious way, that Jeter is not performing well enough in the leadoff spot.

    Again, you're probably right that this wouldn't offend Jeter, but it's possible. What other reason would Girardi have for not making this move? I dunno.

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  9. It's not a demotion at at all, especially if it will help the team win. Now, if you wanted to move him way down in the lineup, that's another story. But he's hit 2 most of his career.

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  10. I agree, I looked at Gardner's OBP last night and was in shock he's not leading off. Totally dumb. Jeter is having a troubling year and he could move to the 8 hole as far as I'm concerned (and please get him out of SS next year).

    In all seriousness, I would put Jete in the 2 hole because that's where he spent a lot of games a few years back. Then I would stick Granderson in the 9 hole (gulp!) to provide some power in the bottom of the lineup (when Servelli is not playing). He can bat #8 when Servelli is in the linup.

    As for Dunn, no more DH's please.

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  11. Granderson probably should be batting 9th if he's playing vs. lefties (which is a huge mistake), but he's a good enough hitter overall to move up against righties.

    BTW...Lance Berkman is out of the Astros lineup today...things might be happening with the Yankees...

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  12. And...

    @Joelsherman1: Hearing Berkman deal from #Astros to #Yankees is on verge of completion

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