Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Hot Stove Coal: A Few Early Grades

It's never too early or too late to assign some early grades on moves made by Major League Baseball teams and players this off-season. Let's take a quick look:
Boston Red Sox: It's been a strange conversion from the slugging idiots that won in 2004 to this team. With trading away Mike Lowell (who was the worst defensive third basemen in the majors last year...though may not be traded just yet) combined with the signings of Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron and John Lackey (who looks like "Haywire" from Prison Break) the focus has seemed to shift to defense, run prevention, and baseball savvy. I just don't know where the offense will come from this team unless Big Papi has a bounceback year or Mike Cameron finds the fountain of youth in Boston--he's 37 and Jorge Arangure tweets: "@jorgearangure: Bill James Handbook not very optimistic about Mike Cameron. Predicts .237/.328/.428 season in 2010." (shouldn't Bill James, a Red Sox employee, alert them to these matters?). If healthy, the trio of Lackey, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester is as devastating as they come...but that's a big if with the first two. I don't think they're done, though. Adrian Gonzalez for Clay Bucholz (with Lackey now in the rotation), Jacoby Ellsbury (with Mike Cameron on the team), and a high level prospect seems like the way to go for the Sox. But if they trade Ellsbury, they need to find a corner infielder (to replace Lowell) and a corner outfielder (since Cameron would shift to CF, his natural position). Some really like their moves but it seems to me like a lot is still in the works so I'll give the Red Sox a B so far.

New York Yankees: I had to follow one with the other, right? The Yankees are coming off a World Series championship (which they are still celebrating) and need to balance "if ain't broke, don't fix it" with "never be satisfied". The trade for Curtis Granderson continues their quest to get younger and the signing of Andy Pettitte fills a hole in the rotation, but the team still needs a left fielder/DH and probably another pitcher. Johnny Damon is a good option for the Yankees but they'll only wait so long for him to decide (though many think he'll end up back in the Bronx including me). If not, guys like Matt Holliday/Jason Bay, Nick Johnson, Vlad Guerrero, and others start looking like other options. And as for starter, now that Roy Halladay and John Lackey are unavailable, look for the Yankees to look at low-risk/high-reward guys like Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Chien-Ming Wang or even a guy like Jarrod Washburn. The Yankees aren't done but they're improved. And the biggest thing? The Yankees didn't clean out the farm system going after a Halladay or clean out the bank account going after a Holliday just because the Red Sox did something showing this is definitely not George Steinbrenner's teams of past. Sometimes you can have a grand day without doing anything. I'd give the Yankees off-season so far a B as well.

New York Yankees 2010 Postseason: The Yankees are screwed. Why? Not because they lost their World Series MVP or the guy who pulled off a double steal on the same play or even because Cody Ransom left the organization. It's because A-Rod and Kate Hudson split. Nooooooooooooooooo! F!

Scott Boras clients: Not really working out so well for them so far. Johnny Damon seems to think he's going to get another 4-year, $52 million contract from someone but who would be dumb enough to give that to him at 36? He better start looking around. Matt Holliday? Still on holiday and waiting for that Mark Teixeira-like deal. Adrian Beltre? He might price himself out with the Red Sox which would leave him in a precarious situation since there's not a lot of other teams who can afford to pay him what he wants. Rick Ankiel? Not on anyone's radar. Somehow the one Boras client to get signed was Ivan Rodriguez. Oh those Nationals... I'd give Scott Boras a C- so far

Seattle Mariners: I want to declare them big winners of the winter for getting Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins...but they depleted their minor leagues and they still don't have any power in that lineup. Hopefully Figgins and Ichiro can steal home a lot. Still, the duos of King Felix and Lee at the top of the rotation and Ichiro and Figgins at the top of the lineup will be hard for many teams to deal with. I just can't give them higher than a B right now.

Cliff Lee: You know the Seinfeld episode where Jerry's girlfriend asks Jerry to decide between "the voice" and her? He surprises her and everyone by choosing "the voice" (hellloooooooo!). I think that's sort of what Cliff Lee must have felt here. Lee's contract demands were said to be about what CC Sabathia got. So Philly decided to basically trade one year of Lee and heartache when he leaves for four much cheaper years of Roy Halladay. In the end, Jerry's choice of "the voice" doesn't work out (and I'm not sure the Phillies choice will either), but the person most hurt in the end is the ex-girlfriend (who in this metaphor is Lee). Lee might have missed they money fountain and goes from the NL favorites to a good, but not great team so I'll give Lee a C.

Philadelphia Phillies: I don't know. I'm not a big Placido Polanco fan, but then again I wasn't a big Raul Ibanez fan and look at the season he had. I think they were better off going for it all with Halladay and Lee or just keeping Lee...but you can't argue with having Roy Halladay. I just think they took a big dent in their farm system (maybe a really big dent) without greatly improving their team which is a tough swallow and I would have gone a different avenue. They also need a better alternative in the 'pen (John Smoltz?) in case Brad Lidge falters again next season. At least they have Cody Ransom I'll give the Phillies a C+ so far.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The organization is a mess because of the divorce of the McCourts. They didn't offer arbitration to their free agents because they didn't want to pay the draft picks. They won't make any big trades or signings. The only trades they made were to acquire cheap Rule 5 picks and to get rid of Juan Pierre's high salary. This is a big mess for Scott Boras, especially. This was a team on the cusp of the World Series which is going to watch everyone else get better around them. I think you have to give them an F.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Two winters ago they lost Mark Teixeira and K-Rod. This winter they lost John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero. Their one big addition? Hideki Matsui. Matsui is an upgrade over Vlad (and may steal Japanese reporters from the Yankees), but they're losing ground to other teams. Not a good start for Arte Moreno's squad: C+.

Bud Selig: The World Series ended with huge questions about instant replay, the length of the playoffs, announcing, etc. Where are those issues now? Drowned out by Tiger Woods and the Hot Stove. His two biggest announcements of the off-season were that he may be stepping down and that he's forming a committee. Small market teams are spending money and big market teams are being thrifty bringing about the parity that commissioners dream of. I always believe a sport is best served when the commissioner is not part of the news. Nice job, Bud, you get an A-.

Chicago White Sox: I'll let Twitter handle this one: @CliffCorcoran: Updating prev tweet: Rios! Teahen! Kotsay! 43-year-old Vizquel! Bloated corpse of Andruw Jones! De Aza! Putz! Pierre! White Sox in '10! D

New York Mets: Well at least they have depth at catcher (?). At least Johan Santana is popular in Venezuela (?). They missed out on all the pitchers (including cheaper options like Randy Wolf). They made a good Rule 5 pick and then traded him away. Their rightfielder had serious ligament replacement. Their shortstop has been day-to-day for six months and "doesn't want to be a leader". Their star centerfielder may or may not be healthy. Their best bet may be to overpay for a left fielder who may better as a DH and was once on the Mets. And they can't sell seats. At least they painted the Stadium colors of their team. So far, they get a D+.

Toronto Blue Jays: They got rid of B.J. Ryan, Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen and Alex Rios. They played the Red Sox and are going to get two picks from them just for giving them the pleasure of singing Marco Scuatro. They got the prospects they wanted from the Blue Jays and didn't trade him within the division. They still have an albatross in Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay is better off traded, but I like what they've done to start over. That being said, they probably won't be good next year. I'll give them a B.

Joe Mauer: The less money the Yankees and Red Sox spend this winter, the more they have available to give him a huge contract next off-season. He's hoping that Matt Holliday and Jason Bay go to someone else so he can pave his way to a huge payday as he finds a mantle for his MVP award. I'll give him an A.

Atlanta Braves: Derek Lowe is now a hot pitching commodity that they can get a decent player from the Angels for...who would have thunk that? A-

Technology, Twitter and Statheads: No one had a better winter than this group (which I just grouped together for the heck of it). The two Cy Young winners were picked not because of wins and the AL MVP was picked not because of home runs. Then the creator of Baseball-Reference was admitted into the BBWAA and Bloomberg got into the baseball statistics game. But no one had a better off-season than Twitter which has become a big player in baseball--where rumors and deals and everything in between are broken first and where the rumor mill churns fastest. Sure there are false reports that get leaked, but it's not like that didn't happen already. Baseball writers have forgone their papers, their columns, their radio spots and their blogs to be the first one to tweet the big scoop. Twitter has become the go-to source for all baseball moves and that's why they get my only A+.

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