Looking Ahead To Free Agency: Andy Pettitte

I wanted to start a series here called "Looking Ahead To Free Agency" where we'll look at the Yankees potential free agents and whether they'll bring them back or not. The first one on the list is Andy Pettitte.

Background: Andy has been dandy for the Yankees for a while, but he turns 38 next season. Last season he pitched horribly in the second half, something that has been attributed to arm troubles. In the off-season the Yankees first offered Andy a take-it-or-leave-it $16 million option. He turned it down to think about it more and ended up settling for a base of about one third of that with incentives.

What he's done so far this year: Well he came back healthy this season and is one of the Yankees best starters. Since the beginning of August, the Yankees are 7-0 when Pettitte starts. In that span he's 5-0 with a 2.96 ERA, holding opponents to a .204/.276/.309 split and striking out 42 in 45.2 innings. Overall, he's 13-6 with a 4.10 ERA. His 8.8 H/9 is his lowest in the American League since 1997 and his 7.0 SO/9 is his best K-rate in the AL since 2003. And Peter Abraham pointed out that Pettitte, despite taking what he thought was a below-market contract, will end up hitting all those incentives and get a way-above-market final price of about $11 million.

So do we bring him back in 2010? The concern with Andy is the strain on his arm. The Yankees let him go after the 2003 season because they were worried about how his arm would hold up and he missed more than half the 2004 season. He's thrown over 2,900 innings in the regular season and 218.1 in the playoffs (basically the equivalent of another whole season). That being said, another incentive-laden deal would make sense for Andy. He almost pitched a perfect game the other day and seems to be rolling right along. The Yankees have CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes lined up for their 2010 rotation. Andy Pettitte would seem to be a nice 5th pitcher to round out that group.

What others are saying:

• From MLBTradeRumors: "Andy Pettitte tells Christian Red of the New York Daily News that he knows he wants to avoid drawn-out contract negotiations after the season. Pettitte, who says he's focused on winning now, admits he decided to return to the Yankees "no matter what" last winter."
• Buster Olney on Pettitte's great second half: "Andy Pettitte has never been a big strikeout guy, but in the second half of this season he has 62 strikeouts in 59 2/3 innings. An AL talent evaluator had these observations on Pettitte's improvement during this season: 'He has much better command of his fastball to both sides of the plate now. He gets ahead and doesn't pitch around the strike zone. When he does fall behind he goes to his changeup, especially to right-handed hitters. He throws very few pitches above the belt; he pitches down almost all the time.'"
• Andy told Jon Heyman he wasn't sure if he would return next season and also wrote that he would decide after consulting with his family after the season.
• River Avenue Blues gives the thumbs up to a 2010 Pettitte return
• From Joel Sherman: "As the Yanks move toward another meaningful October, here is Pettitte again filling the role of Old Reliable."
• The New York Daily News points out how he's moving past Lefty Gomez up the Yankees' all-time wins list
  
• I don't think he'll sign anyplace else anyways, but MLBTradeRumors points out that Pettitte will be a Type A free agent. So arbitration is a no-brainer in this case