Andy Won't Be Dandy in 2011

In the last hour, reports have surfaced that Andy Pettitte will officially announce his retirement tomorrow at Yankee Stadium.  The loss of Pettitte now officially adds more serious question marks to the Yankees' starting rotation entering the 2010 season.  As The LoHud Yankee Blog reports, here is the rotation entering the season:

CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett and pick two from Sergio Mitre/Bartolo Colon/Freddy Garcia/Ivan Nova/Anyone Else You Can Think Of.

Despite the fact that Cashman had stated he was already under the impression that Pettitte was set to retire, I think it is fair to say that when Cashman stated that he had to be patient, part of that had to do with waiting for an official decision from Pettitte.  Now that it is going to be official, Cashman's options have certainly been made clearer.  It doesn't mean that he's going to start scrambling to make a deal, but it will certainly make it easier to evaluate his options.

As for Pettitte retiring, it will mark the end of a great Yankee career.  A product of Gene Michael's strong scouting and farm system put in place during the early 1990's, Pettitte was as consistent of a pitcher that there could be.  From 1995-2010, Pettitte compiled a 240-138 record, making for a .638 winning percentage.  That's better than Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Curt Schilling.  It is often thought that wins and losses are a relatively meaningless statistic, especially on a good offensive team.  Yet somehow, he stands out for his reliable and ability to pitch a big game.

Read more>>

Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010 Pt 2

Back in December we took a trip in the time machine back to last off-season and looked at how close the Yankees came to the "Worst Case Scenario" series we did last year. We started with Part 1 and the starting lineup. Well let's continue that with theme today with Part 2, which was the starting pitching staff. By then I realized that non-Yankee fans were taking a lot of joy in my scenarios but it didn't stop me from looking at what would go horribly wrong if the pitching staff fell apart. Let's see how close we got to that scenario:

AJ Burnett was a "black eye" for the Yankees (FanHouse)

CC Sabathia
What I said worst-case would look like: "Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series...According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys."

What actually happened: Sabathia's arm and body held up another year's grind, starting an AL-leading 34 games, pitching 237.2 innings, and winning a Major League-leading 21 games. Sabathia was an All-Star, came in third in the Cy Young voting, and 13th in the MVP voting. He pitched about as well during the regular season as he did in his first year in Pinstripes (with less strikeouts but more groundballs). The issue for CC was when he hit the playoffs. After being stellar in 2009, he was so-so to bad in 2010. He started three times but only pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up a whopping 22 hits and 10 earned runs, striking out 15 but walking 7, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch, and being charged with a balk. Sabathia was a huge reason the Yankees made the playoffs (from August 7th-September 2nd he won every time he started), but for them to win the World Series in 2011, they need him to carry it through to the playoffs.

A.J. Burnett

Read more>>

It's Gut-Check Time: Will History Repeat Itself?

The Yankees are down 2-1 in the ALCS after they got thumped in a game Andy Pettitte started. The team acknowledges it's gut-check time as they try to get a big Game 4 win from a question mark (who hasn't pitched in over two weeks) and get the ball back to their big lefty ace. They've scored two runs total in the past two games and although this next game is elimination, it certainly feels like a must-win. Why? They just got dominated by the opposing starter and know that if it comes to Game 7 they will have to face him opposite Pettitte. They had a 5-run inning in Game 1 but besides that, the bats have been silent. The New York press seems to be in full panic mode.

Yankees hope for El Duque-like magic from AJ (SI)

Oh, I forgot to mention--the year is 1998.

Yup, the Yankees were in the exact same scenario in 1998 as they are currently in, though they had to climb back in Game 4 while on the road (they had home-field advantage but after having split at home, they lost Game 3 on the road). It's true that year they had a guy on the mound who inspires a bit more confidence in Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez--but it was still the same dicey situation since El Duque was truly an unknown commodity at that point as well.

The New York Daily News' Peter Botte wrote that day: "'It's gut-check time,' David Cone said after Andy Pettitte and the Yanks were thumped 6-1 here Friday night to fall behind 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven ALCS. 'It's a real character test for this team. We've got to get a big game from El Duque and get to the ball back to Boomer (David Wells), who's been our best pitcher all year.'"

The Yankees won Game 4 behind a great-pitched game from El Duque and then went on to win Games 4, 5 and 6 to take the series and then won 4 more in a row to sweep the World Series. 1998 was the last time the Yanks found themselves down 2-1 in an ALCS. Less than 5 hours to go until game time and whether you agree with starting A.J. tonight or not, you have agree that the key for the Yankees win tonight will be their bats awakening which, have been held silent except for one inning in the first game, much like the ALCS of 1998.

The last time the Yankees faced a "must-win" in the playoffs was Game 2 of the World Series last season. Burnett shut down a potent Phillies team that night to right the Yankees ship. Tonight Yankees fans hope he does the same.

Read more>>

Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 3

1 win a piece and now we're back to New York for Game 3. This game will feature two veteran lefties who have a chance at swinging the series. Let's take a look at how they match up against the teams they're about to face:

Andy Pettitte vs. the Rangers hitters (including playoffs)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	GDP
Jeff Francoeur	11	11	6	1	0	1	1	0	1	.545	.545	.909	1.455	0	0	1
Elvis Andrus	9	5	2	1	0	0	1	4	2	.400	.667	.600	1.267	0	0	0
David Murphy	12	11	4	1	0	1	3	1	2	.364	.417	.727	1.144	0	0	0
Vladimir Guerrero	33	31	13	4	0	1	3	2	6	.419	.455	.645	1.100	0	0	0
Jorge Cantu	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000	0	0	0
Josh Hamilton	10	10	3	0	0	1	2	0	2	.300	.300	.600	.900	0	0	0
Bengie Molina	22	22	7	0	0	1	3	0	2	.318	.318	.455	.773	0	0	1
Mike Young	38	31	9	2	0	0	6	5	9	.290	.368	.355	.723	0	2	0
Matt Treanor	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Ian Kinsler	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	.214	.267	.286	.552	0	0	2
Nelson Cruz	15	11	1	0	0	0	1	4	2	.091	.333	.091	.424	0	0	1
Andres Blanco	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	1	0	0
Total	173	153	50	11	0	5	21	17	27	.327	.390	.497	.886	1	2	5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/18/2010.

This is not a pretty picture for Yankee fans who are hoping that history will be on their side tonight. It's a good thing that past results are not indicative of future results. Besides Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, most of the Rangers lineup has manhandled Andy Pettitte. Pettitte's one advantage is that he's good at keeping runners close at first so hopefully that will limit the Rangers running tonight. While the individuals have been good against Pettitte, he's had a pretty good success rate against the team. In his one 2010 start, Pettitte went 8 innings in April against the Rangers, giving up only 4 hits and 2 runs, striking out 4 and walking 3. Elvis Andrus and Michael Young were the two Rangers to get to Pettitte that day.

Overall in Pettitte's regular season career he is 11-9 with a 5.24 ERA in 146 innings against the Rangers, striking out 105 and walking 51 while giving up 178 hits, but had much more success against them in the playoffs, pitching Game 2 of the ALDS in 1996, 1998 and 1999 and earning the victory in two of those three games (the 1996 game he got a no decision but the Yankees won regardless). For the Yankees to have success tonight, they will need another good start from Pettitte who went 7 innings of 2 run ball in Game 2 of the ALDS.

Cliff Lee vs. the Yankees hitters (including playoffs)

Read more>>

Yankees will pitch AJ Burnett in ALCS

MLB.com reported last night that the Yankees will use AJ Burnett in the ALCS, regardless of whether they face the Rangers or the Rays.

Photo courtesy of the NY Post.

Burnett, as we all know, had a very poor season in 2010.  The numbers tell most of the story: AJ went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA over 186.2 innings.  He also compiled a 1.51 WHIP, a 9.8 H/9, and a 1.2 HR/9 (those last two stats are the highest of his career).  In fact, Burnett's season was so bad that it could be the worst season of any Yankees pitcher.  Ever.  No pitcher had ever thrown at least 180 innings with an ERA that high.  At the very least, AJ's performance was the worst value in pro sports. So it made sense that the Yankees left him off their ALDS roster, right?  Right.

Read more>>

Remind me once again: just how good are Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera?

I just wanted to pass along some great bits of statistical information from MLB.com today:

ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Twins

• Andy Pettitte allowed two runs on five hits in seven innings and earned the win in the Yankees' 5-2 victory. In his 41st career postseason start, Pettitte improved to 19-9 with a 3.87 ERA. Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in starts and wins. In his 15th career LDS start, Pettitte improved to 7-3. He is the all-time leader in starts in Division Series play and tied with John Smoltz for the most wins in the LDS. The game marked Pettitte's 15th start in a Game 2 (the most-ever). In those 15 starts, Pettitte was 7-3, with a 3.02 ERA.

• With a scoreless ninth inning, Mariano Rivera earned his 41st career postseason save and lowered his career postseason ERA 0.73 (11 earned runs in 135 2/3 innings pitched). Both are the best marks in postseason history (ERA leaders based on minimum of 30 innings pitched). Dating back to his first appearance of the 2005 postseason, Rivera has pitched 27 innings and allowed two earned runs (0.67 ERA).

• Rivera has converted nine straight postseason save opportunities. That is the third-longest streak in postseason history.

Read more>>

Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Twins Game 2

With the Yankees ahead 1-0 in the series, here's a look towards the pitching match-ups for tonight's Yankees-Twins game:

Andy Pettitte vs. the Twins hitters (including playoffs)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	HBP	GDP
Delmon Young	21	21	11	3	0	0	4	0	1	.524	.524	.667	1.190	0	0	1
Michael Cuddyer	22	21	8	2	0	1	1	1	1	.381	.409	.619	1.028	0	0	1
Jim Thome	39	35	9	2	0	2	6	2	11	.257	.316	.486	.802	1	1	0
Denard Span	14	12	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	.333	.385	.417	.801	1	0	0
Joe Mauer	21	20	6	0	0	1	4	1	3	.300	.333	.450	.783	0	0	1
Orlando Hudson	21	19	5	1	0	0	0	2	3	.263	.333	.316	.649	0	0	1
Drew Butera	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.400	.600	0	0	0
Alexi Casilla	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500	0	0	0
Nick Punto	10	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0
J.J. Hardy	15	15	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	.067	.067	.200	.267	0	0	1
Jason Kubel	7	6	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	.000	.143	.000	.143	0	0	0
Carl Pavano	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Jon Rauch	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Total	182	171	48	10	1	4	17	8	28	.281	.317	.421	.738	2	1	5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/7/2010.

Two righties in the lineup for the Twins, Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer, each have easily handled Andy Pettitte in their careers. So has lefty Jim Thome (2 career HR), Denard Span and Joe Mauer (both .300 hiters vs. Pettitte). But Orlando Hudson has not been as lucky vs the Yankees' lefty and J.J. Hardy (1-15) and Jason Kubel (0-6) have really struggled. So the key for Andy will be navigating through the middle of the order. In Andy Pettite's regular season career vs. Minnesota he is 11-5 with a 3.46 ERA in 145.2 innings (21 starts), giving up a little more than a hit an inning.

Read more>>