Saturday, September 19, 2009

A Look at the NFL Spreads: Week 2

As I promised, here are my NFL picks for week two (home team=CAPS, my pick=bold, best bet=italics, suicide pick=large font):

FAVORITE PTS UNDERDOG
Patriots 7 JETS
COWBOYS 3 Giants
CHIEFS 4 Raiders
TITANS 7 Texans
PACKERS 9 Bengals
Vikings 10 LIONS
EAGLES PK Saints
FALCONS 6 1/2 Panthers
REDSKINS 10 Rams
JAGUARS 3 1/2 Cards
49ERS 1 1/2 Seahawks
BILLS 5 Bucs
BRONCOS 3 Browns
CHARGERS 5 Ravens
Steelers 3 BEARS
Colts 3 DOLPHINS

A few explanations:
  • The Jets and Ravens were my best bets this week. Why? Because even if they lose, I still think they'll cover the spread. The Patriots are a banged up team on defense. The Chargers are the best in the AFC West...but what does that truly say about them? Meanwhile, you have a very confident Jets team with an excellent defense and a Ravens team with not only a great defense, but now a great offensive combination with Joe Flacco and Ray Rice.
  • Then I called my dad before sending the picks and he said "definitely San Diego". So while I didn't change it, I did change my best bet. I like the Colts against a so-so Miami team. I think the Dolphins will be good again this year, just not sure if they are quite on par with last year's team. I just couldn't pick the Ravens as a best bet when my dad sounded so sure the other way. He's been more destructive to my pick confidence than Michael Scott was to Andy Bernard's sexuality confidence on last night's The Office...but when dad says "definitely", I can't not listen.
  • The Bears, Texans and Panthers all threw stink bombs in their first games...what makes me think they'll do better this time? Nothing.
  • Saints/Eagles is a classic pick'em. And I'll usually take the home team. But with all the Eagles injuries and my hatred for the Eagles, I'm going with the Saints.
  • Bucs/Bills is an awful game. I just pick the 5-point underdog when awful teams play each other.
  • I think the Redskins will no-doubt beat a really bad Rams team...I'm just not sure they can score 11 more points. Do you? With that offense? With all their mistakes in Week 1, the Rams look like the team from The Replacements (right up to the point I'm waiting for an offensive lineman to puke sushi). But I think this one will be about a 6-7 point win. Unless they score on a few more fake field goals this week (still angry about that one)
  • I never win picking for/against the Jags so I figured normally I'd pick the Jags playing at home against the Cards, who are West Coast team playing at 1 PM. But that's why I'm going against the Jags (trust me on this...it's all about karma).
  • My suicide pick for the week was the Vikings. It could have been the Redskins or Packers...but do you really see Adrian Peterson losing to the Lions? Not even Brett Favre could make that happen.
  • Lastly, I'll take my G-men on the road against the Cowboys. There were a ton of questions about Tony Romo, Wade Phillips, and the entire organization coming into Week 1. Did that win really help clear that all up? Really? The Giants have one of the best defenses in the NFL and wreak havoc on Tony Romo and his love life. I look for the Giants to go for 2-0 in the Big D.
We'll recap and see how I did after the weekend...

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