Hot Stove Coal: Yankees Out of Cliff Lee Running; Looks Like Phillies

The last time the Yankees didn't get their man: Greg Maddux in 1992. To tell you how long ago that was, Brett Favre's streak that ended tonight of 297 consecutive starts started way back in 1992. But despite trying to get Cliff Lee at the trade deadline and then offering him a seven-year deal this off-season, Cliff Lee has supposedly decided to spur the Yankees according to many major news outlets (all signs right now point to him going to the Phillies).

It looks like Cliff Lee is heading back to Philly.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN "the Yankees' offer to Cliff Lee was 6 years, $138 million, with a seventh-year player option for an additional $16 million; total $154 M." Lee has supposedly turned that down for a 5-year, $100 M deal with the Phillies who he played for in 2009. In an off-season of Lee or bust, the Yankees have seemed to drawn a blank. Now they must look to their Plan B's as we discussed last week.

While those options aren't great, you wonder if somehow this is somewhat of a blessing in disguise for the Yankees. They never really seemed to want to go to 7 years for Lee and instead of him signing with Texas or the Angels or *gulp* Boston, he is heading to the National League to the Phillies. So if you can't sign him, let's just hope you don't have to face him (and the rest of that ridiculous rotation) until the World Series. The Plan B options may not be great, but the Yankees may be happy about what happened in 5 years. Maybe.

Of course, this is the same Phillies team that traded Lee last off-season thinking they wouldn't be able to sign him to a long-term deal and worried about his injury history. Now he's heading back to team up with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. I think Sandy Alderson wants a Do Over on taking the Mets GM job.

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Hot Stove Coal: Secondary Pitching Options Not Looking Great for Yanks

After the Red Sox broke the bank (or not) for Carl Crawford yesterday, the Yankees have seemed to step up their effort to sign the top player remaining on the market, Cliff Lee, even getting creative on contract details. While I think 7 years for a 32-year-old pitcher is pretty insane, with the Red Sox strikes leaving five lefties in the starting lineup, Lee seems like an even better option than he did a day ago. But what happens if everyone's forgone conclusion is wrong and Lee signs with the Rangers or the Angels or the Nationals or some other team? Well Yankees fans, the secondary options either aren't all that great or aren't all that available. Let's look at these outside "options" (I'm excluding guys in the minors, Ivan Nova, projects like Mark Prior, or a guy like Joba Chamberlain for now).

If Lee disappears, Yankees' options are pretty bleak (Globe & Mail)

To break down possible targets, I used Baseball-Reference's Play Index and looked for any starter who had one season of at least 3 wins (B-R WAR of 3+) in the past three years. Although this is far from a perfect metric, I figured that any starter they acquire probably will need to fit this criteria to be a viable option in the power-hitting American League East. Here's a few candidates:

Zack Greinke: He's probably not a good fit for New York with anxiety issues, but if the Yankees can get some reassurance he'd be okay in New York, I think he's firmly their "Plan B" (as has been rumored). With guys like Jeff Weaver bombing out in New York, I don't know if the Yankees would go this route again, though. I like Greinke a lot: only 27, has been excellent the past three years (though fell of just a bit last year), signed for two more years at a reasonable $13.5 M a season, and seems to want to go to a place he has a chance to win. With chips like Jesus Montero, Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain, and young pitchers to play with and a need to rebuild for the Royals, this could be a good match-up player-wise. I just worry about Greinke in the Bronx since "personality" and "adaptability to a big market" are not measurable stats.

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The Price Of Yankees Tickets in the Early 1980s (and Other Yankee Notes)

A few random thoughts on the Yankees and baseball:

• One of my co-workers, Adam, a die-hard Red Sox fan, had two Yankee season ticket stubs at his desk today from the 80s (a picture of them posted to the right from 1980 and 1982 for Field Box seats). Check out the price for a season plan on those tickets. The Sports Illustrated Photo Vault had posted the ticket prices from 1987 a few weeks back but these make you saw "wow" even more.

• While it doesn't look like the Yankees will be raising ticket prices to pay for Cliff Lee, the Yankees will be raising the parking prices. If people are still paying to park at Yankee Stadium, I'm very sorry. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will be raising ticket prices next year so they can retroactively have had enough money to sign Mark Teixeira.

• A report by Big League Stew at the end of October stated that the Florida Marlins were considering dealing their top prospect, Mike Stanton, for...wait for it...Ozzie Guillen. That amazing story had River Ave Blues and Tango trying to figure out what the Yankees could get for an actually good manager like Joe Girardi.

• When Joe Girardi was a Yankee, he went from the starting catcher to being slowly replaced by the young stud, Jorge Posada. Now Posada is the veteran who may be giving way this spring to super-stud prospect, Jesus Montero. With Posada only signed for one more season and Montero having nothing left to prove offensively in the minors, this makes all the sense in the world to me. I know he may not be great defensively but, really, is Posada or Francisco Cervelli being mistaken for Bench back there? Meanwhile, as Steven Goldman writes for Pinstriped Bible, Jorge is bowling for controversy with his comments. I think the Yankees should just tell the moody Posada he'll be lucky to catch more than 90 games in 2011 (though Joel Sherman thinks it will be a lot more). Make it simple

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Cliff Lee's Wife Unhappy With Yankees Fans, Yankees, Yanks

Cliff Lee's wife, Kristen Lee, is unhappy with how she was treated at Yankee Stadium during the ALCS.  Apparently, several Yankees fans were extremely rude towards her.  Allegations involving spitting, throwing cups of beer, and shouting obscenities have been made.

"The fans did not do good things in my heart," Kristen Lee said, according to the newspaper. "When people are staring at you, and saying horrible things, it's hard not to take it personal."

GIF credit: Barstool Sports

The USA Today reports that Ms. Lee sat in the visitor's section and suggests that this may have been the Rangers' first negotiating tactic as Texas tries to woo Lee from the Yankees this offseason.

Barstool Sports Boston thinks that Kristen's distaste for Yankees fans and New York in general will torpedo the Yankees' chances of signing Lee.  Naturally, Barstool concludes with: "So if Kristin Lee really wants to get payback like I think she does we’re the only option.  Looks like thing just went from bad to worse for Yankee fans.  Cue the duckboats indeed!"

This is such a non-story.  I blame the media.  It's a pretty ridiculous theory to suggest that the Yankees are out of the running because Kristen Lee had an unpleasant experience in Game 3 of the ALCS.

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Say it ain't so, Joe! Please Do Not Start A.J. Burnett in Game 4

Fact: A.J. Burnett hasn't pitched in 17 days.

Fact: A.J. Burnett hit two of his own teammates during a recent simulated game.

Fact: A.J. Burnett's stats in August and September = 12 starts, 2-10, 6.61 ERA, 76 hits in 65.1 IP, 28 walks, 7 HBP, 53 K, opponents are hitting .300/.380/.494.

Fact: The Yankees, who must win Games 4, 5, 6 if they want any chance of avoiding Cliff Lee in Game 7 and winning this series, insist on pitching A.J. Burnett in a practically must-win Game 4.

Knowing what we know about A.J. Burnett, is anyone else reminded of this Family Guy clip?



Look, we all know what's coming.  If C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte were rusty from the ALDS, Burnett is going to be two-to-three times rustier.  His confidence is shot because he hasn't pitched effectively in months.  And the Yankees, who are down 2-1 but have been outplayed badly enough (aside from two innings in game 1) that it feels like 3-0, have their backs against the wall.  So why is Burnett pitching this game?  Why does the season practically rest in Burnett's shaky hands??  Don't push the AJ button, Joe, resist the temptation!  Don't even look at the button -- there's still time to change your mind!!!

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 3

1 win a piece and now we're back to New York for Game 3. This game will feature two veteran lefties who have a chance at swinging the series. Let's take a look at how they match up against the teams they're about to face:

Andy Pettitte vs. the Rangers hitters (including playoffs)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	GDP
Jeff Francoeur	11	11	6	1	0	1	1	0	1	.545	.545	.909	1.455	0	0	1
Elvis Andrus	9	5	2	1	0	0	1	4	2	.400	.667	.600	1.267	0	0	0
David Murphy	12	11	4	1	0	1	3	1	2	.364	.417	.727	1.144	0	0	0
Vladimir Guerrero	33	31	13	4	0	1	3	2	6	.419	.455	.645	1.100	0	0	0
Jorge Cantu	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000	0	0	0
Josh Hamilton	10	10	3	0	0	1	2	0	2	.300	.300	.600	.900	0	0	0
Bengie Molina	22	22	7	0	0	1	3	0	2	.318	.318	.455	.773	0	0	1
Mike Young	38	31	9	2	0	0	6	5	9	.290	.368	.355	.723	0	2	0
Matt Treanor	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Ian Kinsler	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	.214	.267	.286	.552	0	0	2
Nelson Cruz	15	11	1	0	0	0	1	4	2	.091	.333	.091	.424	0	0	1
Andres Blanco	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	1	0	0
Total	173	153	50	11	0	5	21	17	27	.327	.390	.497	.886	1	2	5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/18/2010.

This is not a pretty picture for Yankee fans who are hoping that history will be on their side tonight. It's a good thing that past results are not indicative of future results. Besides Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, most of the Rangers lineup has manhandled Andy Pettitte. Pettitte's one advantage is that he's good at keeping runners close at first so hopefully that will limit the Rangers running tonight. While the individuals have been good against Pettitte, he's had a pretty good success rate against the team. In his one 2010 start, Pettitte went 8 innings in April against the Rangers, giving up only 4 hits and 2 runs, striking out 4 and walking 3. Elvis Andrus and Michael Young were the two Rangers to get to Pettitte that day.

Overall in Pettitte's regular season career he is 11-9 with a 5.24 ERA in 146 innings against the Rangers, striking out 105 and walking 51 while giving up 178 hits, but had much more success against them in the playoffs, pitching Game 2 of the ALDS in 1996, 1998 and 1999 and earning the victory in two of those three games (the 1996 game he got a no decision but the Yankees won regardless). For the Yankees to have success tonight, they will need another good start from Pettitte who went 7 innings of 2 run ball in Game 2 of the ALDS.

Cliff Lee vs. the Yankees hitters (including playoffs)

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Cliff Lee Doesn't Hold a Candle to Mariano Rivera in the Postseason

Once the discussion started, I knew I needed to jump in: I overheard one buddy tell another on Wednesday that Cliff Lee now has to be considered the best postseason pitcher in playoff history. I usually try to bite my tongue when strangers give their opinions that I don't agree with, but here I couldn't resist. "Um, sorry to interrupt guys, but I think that Lee doesn't hold a candle to Mariano Rivera."

Cliff Lee is great--but Rivera has been better (SI)

They both looked at me like I had three heads and one said "well, Rivera is a closer so you can't compare".

Usually I'll agree here. For all Rivera's greatness, he really only pitches in less than 80 innings in a season and usually for an inning or two at most. But the fact is that Rivera's postseason resume spans across 15 seasons (and 30 series). He's 8-1, with 41 saves in 91 games pitched, he's thrown 136.2 innings, given up only 84 hits, struck out 108 and walked only 21.

And his ERA is 0.72. He hasn't walked three guys in a postseason series since he became a closer and hasn't given up a postseason home run in a decade. Since the Red Sox got to him in 2004, Rivera has let only 1 of 12 inherited runners to score and his own ERA has been 0.64 over those 21 games. Mo's playoff FIP is 2.24 but that's still over half a run lower than his regular season 2.79 mark. He also improves on his walk ratio (1.38 BB/9), HR ratio (0.13 HR/9), and LOB% (90.3%) in the playoffs. His Win Probability Added (WPA) is 11.415 in the playoffs. The man is superhuman.

That's not to say Cliff Lee isn't a beast himself. In 7 postseason starts the past two years, Lee is 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA in 56.1 innings. He's struck out 54 and walked 6, while only giving up 38 hits. In those 7 starts Cliff Lee gave up no earned runs twice, one earned run 4 times and 5 earned runs once (in Game 5 of the World Series last year). His WPA is 2.121. He's a great playoff pitcher, but he just hasn't enjoyed the success over the period of time that Rivera has.

Maybe he will someday. But not just yet.

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Will CC Sabathia Opt Out After 2011?

On a slow Friday in New York, I was perusing the Yankees' page of Cot's Baseball Contracts, a wonderful resource for player-by-player and team-by-team contract information. When I landed on their second-highest paid player, CC Sabathia, I was sort of surprised to see this bullet point:

It's possible CC may not wear Pinstripes after 2011 (ESPN)

• Sabathia may opt of of deal after 2011 season. 

I wasn't shocked because I didn't know about it, but, frankly, because I don't remember it being mentioned since Sabathia signed his big contract back in December of 2008. In fact, I forgot how important that opt-out clause was to Sabathia's contract being signed. According to Tim Brown and Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports (whose article was titled "Opt-out clause key to Sabathia going to Yankees"):

The deal, according to a source close to negotiations, gives Sabathia the right to opt out of the contract after the first three years, by which time he will have been paid $69 million. Sabathia appreciated the clause because it satisfied concerns he had about living in New York and the impact it might have on his wife and three children.

He will make his opt-out decision after the 2011 season with four years and $92 million remaining on the deal, at which time he could renegotiate, leave or stay.

Yahoo! Sports wasn't the only one; New York Daily News and almost every other news outlet mentioned the opt-out if not in the title of their article, then at least in the body. Since then, not much has been said about this opt-out clause. I searched on Google News for any mention of "Sabathia" and "opt-out" in the past year and there were 21 results, more than half of which seem to be about either A.J. Burnett or Alex Rodriguez opting out. So this is not a much-discussed topic to say the least. But should it be? Should we just assume that the hefty lefty and his family are happy in New York and they are going to stay? Or will CC Sabathia be hitting the open market at the end of next season at the age of 31?

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The Yankee Clipper: Gardner, Montero, Rivera, Cliff Lee and the Bullpen

Let's take a break from debating about what is a sport (or not, the dialog has been quite fascinating) to talk about the Yankees for a while, shall we? Let's head into our Yankee Clipper on this "Dog Day of August" Wednesday in New York (and, by the way, not much is actually wrong with the Yankees; they're still the best team in baseball. Deep breath and move on):

The Yanks need to find Jesus...and bring him up (Times-Union)

1. Brett the Jet has been grounded. Brett Gardner on July 4th: .319/.401/.434. Brett Gardner since July 4th: .169/.302/.213. I know I sometimes am not so objective on Brett Gardner--man crushes can do that for you (if I could clone Brett Gardner and have the second one run errands for me, I would...and the errands would get done really quickly). But he's lost his way. You can't steal bases if you can't get on base. The team has gone 19-11 in those 30 games, but Gardner hasn't been a main part of the cause with only 4 XBH in 89 ABs. He's still playing great defense and has an excellent WAR of 2.8 for the season, but you need to worry if he's hit a wall or teams are now adjusting to him better. Gardner is a slap hitter who can ill afford a large amount of Ks yet he's struck out over 30% of his official ABs since July 4th. His weighted on base average (wOBA) for August is .093 and he still hasn't walked in the month. Gardner needs to get himself straightened out--and fast (though the latter part of the wish is not a hard thing for the Speediest White Man).
2. Jesus rising? Matt at TYU says that we're stuck with Francisco Cervelli but down on the farm the Yankees are seeing their top prospect, Jesus Montero CRUSH the ball at Triple-A. Hopefully in 6 years the Wall Street Journal will be writing about how the Mariners passed on Montero like Brian Costa of WSJ wrote today about how the Texas Rangers passed on Robinson Cano. Sean at Pending Pinstripes says it's still too soon. Brien @ IIATMS defers to the Yankees management. Rebecca at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes says it's time. Here is video proof (H/T River Ave Blues) of Montero crushing a game-winning home run two nights ago. I can agree right now not to call him up (there's no spot for him), but if Jorge Posada lands on the disabled list with his cranky shoulder (or really anyone goes on the DL), I think Montero should be in the Bronx. At the very least, he should be up in about 2 weeks when rosters expand. This is a team that has a .297 wOBA in August as Larry from Yankeeist points out (though, to be fair, he also points out how good the pitching they've faced has been). No excuse for Montero not to be a September call-up.  For now, we need to just pray for Francisco like many pray for Jesus--Montero, that is.

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The Yankee Clipper: Starting Pitching

I was all ready to write today's Yankee Clipper on the Yankees starting rotation but then this weekend happened. A.J. Burnett punched something and had to leave the game with cuts on his hand Saturday and then Sunday and Andy Pettitte left early yesterday with a groin strain that will keep him out at least the rest of the month. So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the status update I'll now do for their starters. But here we go into the starting rotation:

1. Andy Pettitte. Yesterday's game marked the first time that Pettitte didn't go 5 innings in a start this season and in those 18 starts, he's only given up more than 4 earned runs once (6 against the Rays in May). Pettitte came into yesterday 11-2 (league-leading .846 winning percentage) with a 2.70 ERA and I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that he's been the Yankees' most consistent starter so far this season. So then the starter that the Yankees have counted on so much this season (the team is 15-3 in games he starts) left early with a groin injury. Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman estimates that Pettitte will be out 4-5 weeks, but the injury expert, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, thinks that may be overly cautious and thinks that Pettitte will be back the second of August. Before the injury, Pettitte was on pace for 20 wins and had his lowest American League ERA since 1997--but he was also on pace to throw 205 innings for the first time since 2007. Yankees fans remember that in 2008 Pettitte had arm troubles so if there is one silver lining for the Yankees, it is that Pettitte will be well-rested down the stretch. But that is of little consolation to the Yankees who are without the AL All-Star Pettitte for a while now. Pettitte has been exceptionally good in 2010 at limiting the amount of hits against him and decreasing the amount of walks he issues, though the former may be somewhat due to luck--Pettitte's .274 BABIP is well-below his career .314 and his 3.97 FIP and 4.06 xFIP reflects that fact. But Pettitte has produced results so far for the Yankees. According to FanGraphs, some of it is due to his cut fastball and curveball being more effective than they've been in years and ditching the slider (which was a bad pitch for him in 2009). The Yankees must be pretty upset right now they didn't get Cliff Lee and they hope that Andy is Dandy for them again soon. If the Yankees can get Pettitte back by the second week in August and have him for the stretch drive, I think they'd take that. Pettitte is usually his best in the second half and the Yankees need the 2001 ALCS MVP to defend their World Series title. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.12 ERA, 25 K, .602 OPS against.
2. A.J. Burnett. If the Yankees hadn't been winning the past two years, you have to imagine that people would be getting a bit more upset with Burnett's performance in Pinstripes. Last year he had an up-and-down season where he dominated at times but led the league in walks and wild pitches showing that other times he was all over the place. The only thing that Burnett is consistent in is his inconsistency. 2010 started out well for Burnett but has seen him dip to a losing record, an ERA pushing 5, and a Major League worst 12 hit batters. He's allowed no earned runs in 5 starts but he's also allowed 6 or more earned runs 6 times. Through the end of May, Burnett was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Since, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has gone to the dark side as he's 1-6 with a 8.15 ERA and .965 OPS against in his past 8 starts. His last start ended early after his punching incident which he blamed on "falling" originally before being caught. I love the pies he brings and his swagger at times on the mound, but Burnett's lack of maturity at times is disheartening and his inability to compose himself is frustrating. Carroll writes about Burnett: "Burnett is certainly not the first pitcher to do something stupid. The meme of a pitcher hitting something with his pitching hand is so strong that it's a full scene in Bull Durham. Burnett cut his hands on a plexiglass lineup holder. Burnett is expected to be back for his next start, though there are some whispers that there could be a push-back if he doesn't make his throw day and show that the cuts won't be an issue." Not exactly what the Yankees were looking for from their #2 starter coming into the season. Burnett's problem is that when he's bad, he's really bad. In his wins, Burnett holds opposing hitters to a .191/.251/.231 line and in his losses it jumps to .363/.453/.701--meaning that in his losses, Burnett isn't even giving his team a good chance to win. Most disturbing for me about Burnett though is about in his results on the field where we've seen his K/9 drop from 9.56 in 2007 to 9.39 in 2006 to 8.48 in 2009 to only 6.71 this season. That's a big concern for the Yankees as Burnett's true value comes from his ability to finish guys off after he gets himself into jams. There is still some debate about whether this inability to gets misses with the bats are due to lost velocity or just not being able to locate the curveball as R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs suggested a month ago. But whatever is the culprit, this is not good news for the Yankees who are still on the hook for 3 more expensive years of Burnett after 2010. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.43 ERA, 20 K, 1.200 WHIP, .660 OPS against.

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Cliff Lee traded to the Yankees? Deal is "almost done"

ESPN New York, citing one of its ubiquitous "unnamed sources," has announced that a trade sending Cliff Lee to the Yankees is "just about done."  The Mariners look to acquire the Yankees' best catching prospect, 20-year-old Jesus Montero, whom the Yankees consider an excellent hitter but a subpar defensive catcher.  Montero, of course, could always bring his big bat to first base or third base on the Mariners, options that don't exist on a Yankees team that features Mark Teixeira at 1B and Alex Rodriguez at 3B.

The Yankees could absorb this loss with catching prospect Austin Romine, who they believe could become a .275 hitter with 20 HR power.  (Sound familiar?)

Personally, I have mixed feelings about this.  For the most part, I feel that the Yankees should not pull the trigger on this for two reasons.  First, they'll almost certainly have to give up Montero, who will almost certainly be a very successful major league hitter at whatever position he plays.  Ouch.  Why give up such a blue chip prospect when the Yankees are clearly the front runner to sign Lee when he becomes a free agent this offseason?  This is exactly why the Yankees resisted trading for Johan Santana and CC Sabathia at the trading deadline in previous seasons.

Second, the Yankees already have a deep starting pitching rotation.  I mean, they are sending three of their starters to the All-Star Game!  So common sense tells you that this team can win without adding Lee.  (Photo Credit: AP)

But after the jump, I'll tell you why 40% of my gut is telling me that the Yankees should trade for Lee.

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My All-Star Team: American League Pitchers

We've tackled the hitters from the American League and the hitters from the National League, now we'll try to tackle the American League pitching. There's only one qualification: starters need to qualify for the ERA title. Let's go through process of elimination to fill out the rest of our team which will include 8 starters and 5 relievers.

Starters: 55 starting pitchers qualify for the ERA title. We need to whittle that 55 down to 8 so let's start by cutting all pitchers with an ERA that isn't under 4.50. It's not the best statistic to start out with since it eliminates hard-luck guys like Gavid Floyd (4.80 ERA but 3.47 FIP), Luke Hochevar (4.96 ERA but 3.86 FIP) and Brandon Morrow (4.50 ERA but 3.43 FIP). It also eliminates such big names as A.J. Burnett (5.25 ERA), Ben Sheets (5.01 ERA), Jake Peavy (4.71 ERA), John Lackey (4.69 ERA), and Mark Buehrle (4.58 ERA). Some of them may have some great peripheral statistics and just have gotten burned, but if you have an ERA of 4.50 or above, you're not an All Star in my book.

Now we're down to 30 pitchers. Next we'll eliminate anyone whose winning percentage is less that .450 and haven't won more than 5 games. That gets rid of Zack Greinke (3-8), Dallas Braden (4-7), Jeremy Guthrie (3-9) and Jeremy Bondermon (4-5). Greinke is a tough loss here, but at 3-8, it's tough to convince me he's an All Star. I know that Win-Loss record is not a good metric to go on, but the truth is that despite Greinke or Braden's great pitching, their teams haven't won enough games to get them to the All-Star game. 26 left.

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The Yankee Clipper: World Series Rematch Preview

It's been a while since the Yankee Clipper has sailed so I figured it was time to get some Yankee thoughts out there. Today's post come after my astonishment that the Yankees once had a mascot named Dandy as the Wall Street Journal talked about today (and where that picture on the right comes from). Looking at those pictures, I think the Yankees are much better without a mascot. On to the top 5:

1. One thing the Yankees aren't better without is CC Sabathia. Despite Sabathia's struggles, he's still their ace. Make no mistake about that one. When the Yankees needed wins down the stretch and in the playoffs last year, they gave CC the ball and, most of the time, they won. And, despite that fact that many are discounting it, ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand pointed out that his numbers from this year after 13 starts are pretty similar to his numbers through 13 starts from last season. True his numbers on the Yankees weren't as good as his numbers pre-Yankees as ESPN's Rob Neyer points out, but I don't think that's enough to worry about for CC. He still is racking up the wins and even though he's doing it quite a bit against teams like the Orioles which concerns the New York Posts' Joel Sherman, good teams (and good pitchers) are supposed to beat up on bad teams HarballTalk's Craig Calcaterra writes and if he looks good in those starts (as ESPN's TMI blog points out he did against the Os), it doesn't matter much to me. Would I love to see the dominant CC from last summer show up again? Sure. But since it took a while for him to show up in 2009 and the results were pretty damn good, I'm willing to have patience in 2010 as well.
2. Even with Sabathia struggling, the Yankees have been the best team in baseball. They're tied for the best record, have the best run differential in baseball (+103), the most runs scored in baseball (355), the best home record in baseball (22-7), and ESPN Power Rankings has them at #1 (which is probably the kiss of death). This is also without a productive Mark Teixeira, a powerful Alex Rodriguez, a healthy Nick Johnson, a catching Jorge Posada, or a dominant bullpen. 
3. Phil Hughes has been a big part of the past year. As ESPN's TMI blog points out, Hughes was demoted to the bullpen last season on June 14th and in the year since has gone 16-2 with a 2.36 ERA, 122 IP, only 6 HR allowed and 133 K to 33 BB. He wasn't spectacular in his last start but still found a way to win. While Stephen at TYU argues that the birthday boy Andy Pettitte is no All-Star (and I disagree with him, but that's for another post), there's no doubting that Hughes should be heading to Anaheim (close to his hometown) for the Midsummer Classic.

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Is There a Free Agent Market For Cliff Lee?

One of the biggest off-season moves of this past winter was the Seattle Mariners acquisition of Cliff Lee from the Philadelphia Phillies. With one year left on his contract, Lee was deemed expendable by a Philadelphia team that didn’t think they could resign him once his contract was up. The Mariners had dreams of pairing Felix Hernandez and Lee together for one season and seeing what they could do in the spacious confines of Safeco Field.

Well, it may only be one year that they have together. Lee’s agent, Darek Braunecker, told ESPN’s Buster Olney that Lee will be testing the free agent waters in five months. With Josh Beckett locked up, Brandon Webb injured and Javier Vazquez having a rough go of it in the Bronx, Lee is definitely the cream of the free agent pitching crop.

But what type of market awaits Lee? Which teams will be involved in the bidding? While 5 years ago, Cliff Lee would be looking at a huge contract deal, in 2010 with a depressed economy, sagging attendance in some parks, and teams looking to be more fiscally responsible, it seems like Lee’s prospects are drying up in certain areas. So will Lee get a CC Sabathia-type contract or will he be left disappointed after the off-season is over? Let’s take a look at the possibilities (with thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts on the salaries):

Seattle Mariners: The Mariners traded away some of their best prospects to get Cliff Lee so it would make sense they would keep him, right? Well some of thought behind acquiring Lee was that they would keep him for a year and try to recoup the prospect loss in draft pick compensation for Lee signing elsewhere (Lee should be a Type A free agent). And since the Mariners are yet to approach Lee about a contract, that draft pick grab may be the path they are going to head down. If Lee has a huge season in Seattle, though, the Mariners will have a lot of incentive to resign him. If the team struggles, however, they may have to trade him and The News Tribune says they should think about doing that now, rather than later. The Seattle P-I says that the Mariners haven't really been showing much love Lee's way (picture to the right from that article).

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Hot Stove Coal: Why Did The Phillies Have To Trade Cliff Lee?

"What's goin', I say, What's going on here?" - Foghorn Leghorn

Well I've already gone through the odd decisions made by Dave Dombrowski and the Detroit Tigers this offseason, but the next team I'll take a look at is the NL Champions: the Philadelphia Phillies and their General Manager, Ruben Amaro, Jr. . The Phillies traded for Roy Halladay this season and traded away Cliff Lee. This was not a 3-way deal. The Phillies traded their own prospects to Toronto for Halladay and got back completely separate prospects from the Mariners for Lee. The reasoning at the time was that the team could not afford to keep both Lee and Halladay. But as this off-season has progressed, that seems to have been far from the truth.

Lee was 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA (and an amazing 7.4 K/BB ratio) and was the playoff hero for the Phillies last season after coming over to The City of Brotherly Love in a trade deadline deal with the Cleveland Indians. With one year under his contract, it was assumed that Lee would come back this season and the Phillies would try to work out a contract extension either before, during or after the season. But when Lee mentioned that he was looking for CC Sabathia-like money and years, the Phillies quickly moved to acquire Roy Halladay (who they knew they could lock up for the years and money they wanted) and traded away Lee.

At the time, the reasoning behind the trading of Lee was that the Phillies had overspent the past season to get to the World Series and couldn't spend the money again in 2010 (some were reporting they were over their payroll limit even before this trade). They also didn't want to leave their farm system barren after trading for both Lee and Halladay within a year. Fine.

But the Phillies moves this off-season makes me think that maybe they weren't so enamored with Lee as a long-term option. Amaro first gave Placido Polanco a three-year, $18 M deal which seemed excessive at the time and, how this market's performed, it seems pretty insane now. Polanco hasn't played third base since his days when he last played with the Phillies in 2005. Their incumbent 3rd baseman, Pedro Feliz, has been in serious decline, but they could have found another option for 3B (Adrian Beltre's contract would be more palatable for the Phillies than Polanco).

I just really point that signing out as a place the Phillies could have saved some money. Another place? Trading Joe Blanton. That's what Buster Olney argued today and it was made even more obvious when they signed Blanton (a workhorse, for sure, but no where near the ace status of Lee) to a 3-year, $24 M extension. Cliff Lee was signed for $8 M this year. Are you seriously telling me that keeping Lee for $8 M and trading Blanton for a prospect would not have been better than the prospects they got for Lee and keeping Blanton for 3 years? Add that to the fact that Lee would have brought back two picks as a Type A free agent if he left and you got me scratching my head.

Here were the four choices as I see it:

1. Don't trade for Halladay

• Keep prospects (and the Phillies prospects were the best given up in the deal)
• Pay $8 M to Lee for one year, get draft pick compensation if he walks
• Give Blanton 3-year, $24 M extension
• If it ain't broke, don't fix it. You have a pitcher whose proven he can pitch in the playoffs and in the friendly confines of Citizen Bank Park and Blanton, a workhorse. This rotation was able to handle the NL East last season and should be able to this season as well. You have the prospects in stow to make a mid-season splash, if necessary. Plus you have Kyle Drabek waiting int the wings in case Jamie Moyer/Antonio Bastardo/Kyle Kendrick can't cut it as the 5th starter.
  

2. Trade for Halladay and keep Lee and Blanton

• Drains the farm system
• Pay $8 M to Lee for one year, get draft pick compensation if he walks
• Pay $15.75 M to Halladay in 2010 and sign to 3 years/$60 M extension
• Give Blanton 3-year, $24 M extension
• You need to get rid of money someplace, so you can start with Polanco's $6 M and not sign Danys Baez for $2.75 M. There's over $8 M right there. You have the best rotation in baseball with Halladay, Lee, Blanton, Cole Hamels and JA Happ. You replace Baez and Polanco with low-priced talent and hope to pick someone up on the cheap midseason or at the end of the off-season. I don't think they would have ever gone with this, but it would have made them the NL favorites right off the bat.
  

3. Trade for Halladay, trade away Lee, keep Blanton

• Trade away the better prospects, but at least replenish the farm system a bit. From Olney: "[J.P.] Aumont, the best prospect in the deal, is projected as a possible set-up man with the promise that he might develop into a closer. The Phillies also received outfielder Tyson Gillies and pitcher Juan Ramirez in the deal."
• Pay $15.75 M to Halladay in 2010 and sign to 3 years/$60 M extension
• Give Blanton 3-year, $24 M extension
• This is what they did. They got Halladay (a better overall pitcher than Lee but unproven in Philly's home park or in the playoffs) and kept Blanton. The one advantage of this rotation is they can go righty, lefty throughout the entire rotation. The New York Times' Tyler Kepner points out @TylerKepner: With Blanton deal, the Phillies now have Halladay-Hamels-Blanton-Happ under club control through '12. I don't know if that's a good thing, though. You basically replaced a great starting prospect with a great relieving prospect. Sounds like the Joba debate all over again, but I think that it's now proven that a great starter is much more valuable than a great reliever.
  

4. Trade for Halladay, keep Lee, trade Blanton

• They would have a pretty barren farm system but would recoup a B-level prospect for Blanton (he is better than most of the other options out there) and draft picks for Lee if/when he walks
• Pay $8 M to Lee for one year, get draft pick compensation if he walks
• Pay $15.75 M to Halladay in 2010 and sign to 3 years/$60 M extension
• I still have no clue why they didn't do this. Their rotation is the best in the National League with Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Happ and Jamie Moyer/Antonio Bastardo/Kyle Kendrick and the left-handedness of the rotation was hard for most teams to handle. They would be paying their roster the same amount in 2010 as the third option, but they would have Lee plus prospects and payroll flexibility for this option and Blanton for three years in the other. I also think this instantly makes them the NL favorites and one of the most scary teams in baseball. It's basically replacing Blanton with Halladay. That's scary.
  

In the end, I think the fourth option was the best and I'm not sure why the Phillies didn't go in that direction. If they fall short of winning the World Series this year or are searching for pitching at the trade deadline, they'll be wishing they had gone with Lee and Halladay, the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

A Trade Evolution: Mulder to Halladay/Lee with Holliday in Between

Sometimes, trades just continue to flow. Here is a cool one for how Mark Mulder actually ended up getting involved in the Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee deal being finished up and how Holliday and Halladay are closer than you think...and how that wily Billy Beane seems to be a part of all of this.

The Oakland A's traded Mark Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals for Daric Barton, Kiko Calero and Dan Haren.

The Oakland A's traded Dan Haren with Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Chris Carter, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith.

The Oakland A's traded Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street to the Colorado Rockies for Matt Holliday.

The Oakland A's traded Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson.

The Oakland A's have agreed to trade Brett Wallace for Michael Taylor who is being traded to the Blue Jays with Travis d'Arnaud and Kyle Drabek for Roy Halladay (who is being dealt in the same deal as Cliff Lee).

Got all that (H/T to Baseball Reference for all the deals)? You would be missing a few positions, but you could field a pretty good team with all those players.