Hot Stove Coal: Why Did The Phillies Have To Trade Cliff Lee?

"What's goin', I say, What's going on here?" - Foghorn Leghorn

Well I've already gone through the odd decisions made by Dave Dombrowski and the Detroit Tigers this offseason, but the next team I'll take a look at is the NL Champions: the Philadelphia Phillies and their General Manager, Ruben Amaro, Jr. . The Phillies traded for Roy Halladay this season and traded away Cliff Lee. This was not a 3-way deal. The Phillies traded their own prospects to Toronto for Halladay and got back completely separate prospects from the Mariners for Lee. The reasoning at the time was that the team could not afford to keep both Lee and Halladay. But as this off-season has progressed, that seems to have been far from the truth.

Lee was 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA (and an amazing 7.4 K/BB ratio) and was the playoff hero for the Phillies last season after coming over to The City of Brotherly Love in a trade deadline deal with the Cleveland Indians. With one year under his contract, it was assumed that Lee would come back this season and the Phillies would try to work out a contract extension either before, during or after the season. But when Lee mentioned that he was looking for CC Sabathia-like money and years, the Phillies quickly moved to acquire Roy Halladay (who they knew they could lock up for the years and money they wanted) and traded away Lee.

At the time, the reasoning behind the trading of Lee was that the Phillies had overspent the past season to get to the World Series and couldn't spend the money again in 2010 (some were reporting they were over their payroll limit even before this trade). They also didn't want to leave their farm system barren after trading for both Lee and Halladay within a year. Fine.

But the Phillies moves this off-season makes me think that maybe they weren't so enamored with Lee as a long-term option. Amaro first gave Placido Polanco a three-year, $18 M deal which seemed excessive at the time and, how this market's performed, it seems pretty insane now. Polanco hasn't played third base since his days when he last played with the Phillies in 2005. Their incumbent 3rd baseman, Pedro Feliz, has been in serious decline, but they could have found another option for 3B (Adrian Beltre's contract would be more palatable for the Phillies than Polanco).

I just really point that signing out as a place the Phillies could have saved some money. Another place? Trading Joe Blanton. That's what Buster Olney argued today and it was made even more obvious when they signed Blanton (a workhorse, for sure, but no where near the ace status of Lee) to a 3-year, $24 M extension. Cliff Lee was signed for $8 M this year. Are you seriously telling me that keeping Lee for $8 M and trading Blanton for a prospect would not have been better than the prospects they got for Lee and keeping Blanton for 3 years? Add that to the fact that Lee would have brought back two picks as a Type A free agent if he left and you got me scratching my head.

Here were the four choices as I see it:

1. Don't trade for Halladay

• Keep prospects (and the Phillies prospects were the best given up in the deal)
• Pay $8 M to Lee for one year, get draft pick compensation if he walks
• Give Blanton 3-year, $24 M extension
• If it ain't broke, don't fix it. You have a pitcher whose proven he can pitch in the playoffs and in the friendly confines of Citizen Bank Park and Blanton, a workhorse. This rotation was able to handle the NL East last season and should be able to this season as well. You have the prospects in stow to make a mid-season splash, if necessary. Plus you have Kyle Drabek waiting int the wings in case Jamie Moyer/Antonio Bastardo/Kyle Kendrick can't cut it as the 5th starter.
  

2. Trade for Halladay and keep Lee and Blanton

• Drains the farm system
• Pay $8 M to Lee for one year, get draft pick compensation if he walks
• Pay $15.75 M to Halladay in 2010 and sign to 3 years/$60 M extension
• Give Blanton 3-year, $24 M extension
• You need to get rid of money someplace, so you can start with Polanco's $6 M and not sign Danys Baez for $2.75 M. There's over $8 M right there. You have the best rotation in baseball with Halladay, Lee, Blanton, Cole Hamels and JA Happ. You replace Baez and Polanco with low-priced talent and hope to pick someone up on the cheap midseason or at the end of the off-season. I don't think they would have ever gone with this, but it would have made them the NL favorites right off the bat.
  

3. Trade for Halladay, trade away Lee, keep Blanton

• Trade away the better prospects, but at least replenish the farm system a bit. From Olney: "[J.P.] Aumont, the best prospect in the deal, is projected as a possible set-up man with the promise that he might develop into a closer. The Phillies also received outfielder Tyson Gillies and pitcher Juan Ramirez in the deal."
• Pay $15.75 M to Halladay in 2010 and sign to 3 years/$60 M extension
• Give Blanton 3-year, $24 M extension
• This is what they did. They got Halladay (a better overall pitcher than Lee but unproven in Philly's home park or in the playoffs) and kept Blanton. The one advantage of this rotation is they can go righty, lefty throughout the entire rotation. The New York Times' Tyler Kepner points out @TylerKepner: With Blanton deal, the Phillies now have Halladay-Hamels-Blanton-Happ under club control through '12. I don't know if that's a good thing, though. You basically replaced a great starting prospect with a great relieving prospect. Sounds like the Joba debate all over again, but I think that it's now proven that a great starter is much more valuable than a great reliever.
  

4. Trade for Halladay, keep Lee, trade Blanton

• They would have a pretty barren farm system but would recoup a B-level prospect for Blanton (he is better than most of the other options out there) and draft picks for Lee if/when he walks
• Pay $8 M to Lee for one year, get draft pick compensation if he walks
• Pay $15.75 M to Halladay in 2010 and sign to 3 years/$60 M extension
• I still have no clue why they didn't do this. Their rotation is the best in the National League with Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Happ and Jamie Moyer/Antonio Bastardo/Kyle Kendrick and the left-handedness of the rotation was hard for most teams to handle. They would be paying their roster the same amount in 2010 as the third option, but they would have Lee plus prospects and payroll flexibility for this option and Blanton for three years in the other. I also think this instantly makes them the NL favorites and one of the most scary teams in baseball. It's basically replacing Blanton with Halladay. That's scary.
  

In the end, I think the fourth option was the best and I'm not sure why the Phillies didn't go in that direction. If they fall short of winning the World Series this year or are searching for pitching at the trade deadline, they'll be wishing they had gone with Lee and Halladay, the best 1-2 punch in the majors.