The Yankee Clipper: Starting Pitching

I was all ready to write today's Yankee Clipper on the Yankees starting rotation but then this weekend happened. A.J. Burnett punched something and had to leave the game with cuts on his hand Saturday and then Sunday and Andy Pettitte left early yesterday with a groin strain that will keep him out at least the rest of the month. So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the status update I'll now do for their starters. But here we go into the starting rotation:

1. Andy Pettitte. Yesterday's game marked the first time that Pettitte didn't go 5 innings in a start this season and in those 18 starts, he's only given up more than 4 earned runs once (6 against the Rays in May). Pettitte came into yesterday 11-2 (league-leading .846 winning percentage) with a 2.70 ERA and I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that he's been the Yankees' most consistent starter so far this season. So then the starter that the Yankees have counted on so much this season (the team is 15-3 in games he starts) left early with a groin injury. Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman estimates that Pettitte will be out 4-5 weeks, but the injury expert, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, thinks that may be overly cautious and thinks that Pettitte will be back the second of August. Before the injury, Pettitte was on pace for 20 wins and had his lowest American League ERA since 1997--but he was also on pace to throw 205 innings for the first time since 2007. Yankees fans remember that in 2008 Pettitte had arm troubles so if there is one silver lining for the Yankees, it is that Pettitte will be well-rested down the stretch. But that is of little consolation to the Yankees who are without the AL All-Star Pettitte for a while now. Pettitte has been exceptionally good in 2010 at limiting the amount of hits against him and decreasing the amount of walks he issues, though the former may be somewhat due to luck--Pettitte's .274 BABIP is well-below his career .314 and his 3.97 FIP and 4.06 xFIP reflects that fact. But Pettitte has produced results so far for the Yankees. According to FanGraphs, some of it is due to his cut fastball and curveball being more effective than they've been in years and ditching the slider (which was a bad pitch for him in 2009). The Yankees must be pretty upset right now they didn't get Cliff Lee and they hope that Andy is Dandy for them again soon. If the Yankees can get Pettitte back by the second week in August and have him for the stretch drive, I think they'd take that. Pettitte is usually his best in the second half and the Yankees need the 2001 ALCS MVP to defend their World Series title. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.12 ERA, 25 K, .602 OPS against.
2. A.J. Burnett. If the Yankees hadn't been winning the past two years, you have to imagine that people would be getting a bit more upset with Burnett's performance in Pinstripes. Last year he had an up-and-down season where he dominated at times but led the league in walks and wild pitches showing that other times he was all over the place. The only thing that Burnett is consistent in is his inconsistency. 2010 started out well for Burnett but has seen him dip to a losing record, an ERA pushing 5, and a Major League worst 12 hit batters. He's allowed no earned runs in 5 starts but he's also allowed 6 or more earned runs 6 times. Through the end of May, Burnett was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Since, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has gone to the dark side as he's 1-6 with a 8.15 ERA and .965 OPS against in his past 8 starts. His last start ended early after his punching incident which he blamed on "falling" originally before being caught. I love the pies he brings and his swagger at times on the mound, but Burnett's lack of maturity at times is disheartening and his inability to compose himself is frustrating. Carroll writes about Burnett: "Burnett is certainly not the first pitcher to do something stupid. The meme of a pitcher hitting something with his pitching hand is so strong that it's a full scene in Bull Durham. Burnett cut his hands on a plexiglass lineup holder. Burnett is expected to be back for his next start, though there are some whispers that there could be a push-back if he doesn't make his throw day and show that the cuts won't be an issue." Not exactly what the Yankees were looking for from their #2 starter coming into the season. Burnett's problem is that when he's bad, he's really bad. In his wins, Burnett holds opposing hitters to a .191/.251/.231 line and in his losses it jumps to .363/.453/.701--meaning that in his losses, Burnett isn't even giving his team a good chance to win. Most disturbing for me about Burnett though is about in his results on the field where we've seen his K/9 drop from 9.56 in 2007 to 9.39 in 2006 to 8.48 in 2009 to only 6.71 this season. That's a big concern for the Yankees as Burnett's true value comes from his ability to finish guys off after he gets himself into jams. There is still some debate about whether this inability to gets misses with the bats are due to lost velocity or just not being able to locate the curveball as R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs suggested a month ago. But whatever is the culprit, this is not good news for the Yankees who are still on the hook for 3 more expensive years of Burnett after 2010. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.43 ERA, 20 K, 1.200 WHIP, .660 OPS against.

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My All-Star Team: The Best of the Rest

We tried to fill out the rosters for the All-Star Game. I picked the hitters from the American League, the hitters from the National League, and the American League pitchers, and the National League pitchers, but still we had 5 teams without a representative. And since Major League Baseball has a silly rule that every team has to have a representative, we'll comply as well by listing the best of the rest from the 5 teams without a clear All-Star:

Baltimore Orioles: Ty Wigginton got an honorable mention at 2nd base for us and in a year of infield injuries (especially with Dustin Pedroia down), he may be a good a pick as any from the struggling Os. His .262/.347/.473 line with a .356 wOBA doesn't scream out "All Star", but 14 HR and 42 RBIs may put him over the hump. This is not a good team and it shows that a guy with a WAR of 0.7 is their best candidate for the All-Star Game. ESPN also goes with Wigginton. Counting Stats: .262 avg, 30 runs, 14 HR, 42 RBI. Photo from SNY

Honorable Mentions: Luke Scott (.274/.348/.520, .376 wOBA, 12 HR, 30 RBI) could certainly slot in as an OF/DH type on the team as well, though there are plenty of good candidates for the role and Scott just hit the DL. Brian Matusz is about as close as the Os come to having a pitching candidate but although it's a good start for the rookie, 2-9 with a 4.90 ERA isn't enough to play in the Mid-Summer Classic. Nick Markakis leads the team with a WAR of 1.7 and his slash line looks great at .303/.399/.425, but with only 3 HR and 24 RBI, he's going to have a hard time beating out a lot of good candidates in the OF.

Cleveland Indians: With Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and CC Sabathia traded away and Grady Sizemore hurt, the Tribe is without most of their most reliable all- candidates but that doesn't mean that Shin-Soo Choo doesn't deserve to play in the All-Star Game. Choo's .289/.391/.480 line, 13 HR, 12 SB, and good defense add up to a 3.1 WAR so far which is certainly All-Star material (the only OFs in baseball with a higher WAR are Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday, and Alex Rios). ESPN and The Cleveland Plain Dealer agree with my Choo suggestion. Counting Stats: .281 avg, 47 runs, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 12 SB. Picture from The Cleveland Plain Dealer

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Hot Stove Coal: How About Another Roy?

Brian Cashman's plan for the offseason was supposed to be "pitching, pitching, pitching," but so far, the Yankees have done nothing but subtract pitching and acquire hitting (except for the resigning of Andy Pettitte). They've gone out and added Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson and Jamie Hoffmann. So what are they doing to improve their pitching? Well, a whole lot of nothing so far. The Yankees saw John Lackey go to the Red Sox, Randy Wolf go to the Brewers, Cliff Lee go to the Mariners, and Roy Halladay go to the Phillies. But could the Yankees try to add another Roy as in Roy Oswalt of the Astros.

The Yankees have been looking at a pool of free agents that include Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, Justin Duchscherer, and Ben Sheets. That group does not inspire the greatest confidence...to say the very least. Marquis and Pineiro are probably better suited for the National League and although Sheets and "Duke" have great upside and would probably be better free agent signings, they both bring with them serious injury risk. So in the world of speculation and the general public feeling that the Yankees have to add a free agent starter, today, the New York Post added another name to that list: Carlos Zambrano.

ESPNChicago columnist Bruce Levine knocks down the rumor and Jason over at IIATMS slams it down even more. The rumor itself was about as solid as jello, only saying "Cashman is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano". That's the equivalent to saying that Tiger Woods may or may not be a womanizer. Jason rightly points out that if the Yankees were to acquire a Cub pitcher, Ted Lilly could make more sense*. But most don't see either one as a match.

*Side Note: the frustrating thing about Lilly is that he should have been a Yankee right now rather than a Cub if the Yankees had not decided to go with "Backwards" Kei Igawa instead. And the worst part that Lilly wanted to come to the Yankees; Igawa looks like he can't wait to get back to Japan. 

So while we're in the process of haphazardly throwing out names out there, I'm going to throw out the one I did a few paragraphs back: Roy Oswalt*. Now I will say that I have not read a rumor linking the Yankees to Oswalt and I do not believe they will be in on him...but let's explore the resume, shall we?

*Side Note: I can report with some confidence that Cashman is believed to have inquired about Roy Oswalt. Why can I say this was any amount of confidence? Because Cashman is a General Manager and Oswalt is a pitcher. If a GM leaves a stone unturned, I believe he isn't fully doing his job. And since Cash-money seems like he's doing his job, I'm sure he's asked if Roy Oswalt is available. I'm pretty sure "The Situation" asks every girl in Seaside Heights if she's available as well. It doesn't mean he's necessarily going to acquire any of them either.

Roy Oswalt does not equal Roy Halladay...but I do believe Oswalt is one of the more under-appreciated pitchers of the past decade. Oswalt had five top-5 finishes in the Cy Young voting, and as of the end of September, was in the top 5 of the decade's list (min 700 innings) in Wins (t-5th with 137), W-L % (5th with .662), ERA (4th at 3.23), QS (5th at 186), Quality Start % (1st at .683), and 20-win seasons (t-2nd with 2). Like Halladay, Oswalt will turn 32 this next season. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Oswalt signed an extension in 2006 for 5 years, $73M (with a 2012 club option) that will pay him $15M in 2010, $16M in 2011, and $16M or a $2M buyout in 2012. That means the rest contract is either $33M for two years or $47 for three years. It also includes a full no-trade clause. In the past, any rumors of Oswalt being dealt were met with a firm rebuttal from Astros owner Drayton McLane saying that he values his "personal relationship" with the pitcher, as Ken Davidoff via MLBTradeRumors reported last June. McLane was also reported as saying that he wanted Oswalt (as well as teammate Lance Berkman) to retire as Astros.

So why do I think that things could be different now? First, Oswalt seems to have expressed displeasure with the direction of the Astros and his limited time left with the team in an interview with MLB.com back in August saying:

I think about it all the time, especially if I'm going to stay on my game plan...I have two more years. Time is running out. That's why I'm trying to push them not to look two years down the road...

Everyone says we have great prospects in A ball...That's great for the organization, but I'm looking at now. I tell [owner] Drayton [McLane] all the time, 'The reason I signed here is I want to win, and let's do what we can do to win in the next two years.' Time is running out on me.

A few days later, as reported by the Houston Chronicle's Richard Justice, Oswalt openly questioned the effort of his teammates and said that "the team atmosphere is dead" and that the players were just "going through the motions". That was another sign to Jerome Solomon of the Chronicle that Oswalt may have been trying to talk his way out of Houston. As MLBTradeRumors reported, McLane was upset by Oswalt's comments saying that "these are problems you need to solve internally rather than through the media" but seemed to say that he would look into evaluating solutions. That led to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports (via MLBTradeRumors) speculating in September that Oswalt may be moved this off-season. Since, that, though, there's been little talk on Oswalt, even though Houston has seemed to pare back payroll even more. And although Oswalt had a rough season last year, some of it had to do with his bullpen which, Baseball-Reference points out, allowed 11 of the 12 inherited runners bequeathed by Oswalt to score (his ERA would have been 3.57 without that) and lost 7 wins for him last season.

I love Oswalt (he's 4-0 with a 3.66 ERA in the postseason as well), but I think this may be another "pass" for the Yankees. Oswalt's WAR according to Fangraphs hit 6.4 in 2004 but went to 6.1 in 2005, 5.7 in 2006, 4.6 in 2007, 3.6 in 2008 and 3.1 in 2009. That's a bad trend. He also is owed either 16.5M per for 2 years or 15.67M per for 3 years which is still a lot of money. Since McLane seems to adore Oswalt, I think it would also take a lot in terms of prospects to pry Oswalt away from the Astros. And that's if he would waive his no-trade clause.

I think that the Yankees will go another direction, especially if they're going to add a starter soon. MLBTradeRumors mentions a few other names like Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, Gil Meche and Jeremy Bonderman. And River Avenue Blues points out that this New Years deadline declared by the New York Post article is probably as reliable as the Zambrano rumor itself.

My choice for a pitcher? Ben Sheets. The Yankees already have Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves so the only type of pitcher the Yankees need is someone with bigger upside than that group. Ben Sheets has that and the Yankees have the luxury of slotting one of those other five into the rotation if Sheets gets hurt. River Avenue Blues suggests that it's Duke, Sheets or standing pat. I tend to agree, though I wonder if Cashman has another move up his sleeve. I just don't think that move will be Roy Oswalt (stats below courtesy of Baseball-Reference and picture courtesy of The Houston Chronicle)



Update 4:00 PM: So maybe the Zambrano rumor wasn't so ridiculous: @KenDavidoff: Heard #Yankees did ask #Cubs about Zambrano, as NY Post reported - a few weeks ago. Would've worked only if CHI supplied $. No active talks.

MLB's Best of the Decade: Pitchers

A little while back, we looked at the best hitters of the decade. Now, let's look at the top pitchers in every category, courtesy of Baseball-Reference's Play Index (all averages min 700 innings) :

• Decisions - Livan Hernandez (252), Javier Vazquez (243), Barry Zito (239), Andy Pettitte (236), Greg Maddux (235)

• W - Pettitte (148), Randy Johnson (143), Jamie Moyer (140), Roy Hallady (138), Tim Hudson/Roy Oswalt (137)

• L - Livan (124), Vazquez (115), Jeff Suppan (109), Jeff Weaver (106), Zito (106)

• SV - Mariano Rivera (397), Trevor Hoffman (362), Jason Isringhausen (284), Billy Wagner (284), Francisco Cordero (250)

• W-L% - Pedro Martinez (.691), Roger Clemens (.682), Johan Santana (.670), Halladay (.667), Oswalt (.662)

• Games - David Weathers (712), LaTroy Hawkins (652), Rivera (649), Alan Embree (642), Kyle Farnsworth (626)

• Starts - Livan (331), Vazquez (326), Suppan (319), Zito (319), Moyer (315)

• CG - Halladay (46), Livan (36), Big Unit (32), CC Sabathia (28), Curt Schilling (26)

• SHO - Halladay (13), Big Unit (12), Hudson (11), Sabathia (11), Chris Carpenter/Mark Mulder (10)

• Games Finished - Rivera (587), Wagner (465), Hoffman (464), Izzy (447), Cordero (425)

• IP - Livan (2195), Vazquez (2157), Buehrle (2055), Zito (1993.2), Moyer (1980.1)

• ERA - Rivera (2.09), Pedro (3.00), Johan (3.12), Oswalt (3.23), John Smoltz (3.24)

• ERA+ - Rivera (214), Pedro (152), Johan (143), Brandon Webb (142), Big Unit (137)

• SO - Big Unit (2180), Vazquez (1992), Johan (1733), Pedro (1618), Sabathia (1587)

• BB/9 - Brad Radke (1.36), David Wells (1.40), Maddux (1.43), Schilling (1.47), Jon Lieber (1.50), Josh Towers (1.51)

• HR/9 - Rivera (0.48), Webb (0.63), Julian Tavarez (0.66), Halladay (0.73), Hudson (0.73), Derek Lowe/Carlos Zambrano (0.73)

• SO/9 - Big Unit (10.42), Kerry Wood (10.05), Pedro (9.95), Rich Harden (9.35), Scott Kazmir (9.33)

• H/9 - Rivera (6.92), Wood (7.14), Pedro (7.16), Harden (7.20), Chris Young (7.43)

• WHIP - Rivera (0.962), Pedro (1.034), Johan (1.113), Big Unit (1.114), Schilling (1.129)

• K/BB - Schilling (6.01), Rivera (4.88), Pedro (4.64), Big Unit (4.50), Smoltz (4.26), Mike Mussina (4.09)

• SB% - Krik Reuter (0.27), Carpenter (0.37), Mike Maroth (0.38), Bartolo Colon (0.39), Buehrle (0.41)

• Pickoffs - Buehrle (66), Pettitte (45), Doug Davis (43), Mark Mulder (36), Brian Anderson (34)

• GIDP - Buehrle (240), Livan (218), Jon Garland (215), Lowe (214), Suppan (208)

• BAA - Rivera (.210), Pedro (.216), Wood (.219), Harden (.220), Chris Young (.222), Johan (.225)

• OBP against - Rivera (.256), Pedro (.273), Johan (.281), Schilling (.284), Big Unit (.288)

• SLG against - Rivera (.285), Harden (.342), Pedro (.344), Zambrano (.351), Webb (.352)

• OPS against - Rivera (.541), Pedro (.617), Harden (.647), Santana (.649), Clemens (.659)

• OPS+ against - Rivera (56), Pedro (65), Webb (73), Clemens (73), Schilling (76)

• Avg. Game Score - Pedro (61), Santana (60), Big Unit (59), Schilling (58), Clemens (57)

• Quality Starts - Vazquez (192), Zito (192), Buehrle (189), Big Unit (187), Oswalt (185)

• Quality Start % - Oswalt (.683), Webb (.672), Johan (.667), Big Unit (.665), Pedro (.659)

• Pitches/start - Zambrano (106.0), Livan (105.7), Justin Verlander (105.7), Al Leiter (105.6), Jason Schmidt (105.1)

• Strike % - Schilling (.694), Wells (.686), Rivera (.685), Paul Byrd (.684), Brad Radke (.684)

• Franchises Played For - Rick White (11), Bruce Chen (10), Dennys Reyes (9), Julian Tavarez (9), Ron Villone (9)

• 20-win seasons - Schilling (3), Oswalt (2), Halladay (2), Colon (2), Moyer (2), Big Unit (2)

• 200-K seasons - Johan (5), Vazquez (5), Pedro (5), Big Unit (5), Jake Peavy/Halladay/Wood/Schilling (3)

• Sub-3.00 ERA (qualified for ERA title) - Johan (4), Peavy (4), Pedro (4), Big Unit (4), Halladay (3)

• Cy Young Awards - Big Unit (3), Clemens (2), Johan (2), many tied at 1
  

So who is the best pitcher of the decade? I lowered the innings limit to 700 to get a lot more people involved, but also to show how great Mariano Rivera is compared to his peers. His averages should be higher only pitching one inning, but he was great this past decade. He's my vote but there are some other great candidates.

What about The Big Unit? He won the most Cy Young's this decade and had the second most wins and most Ks this decade. He also had a second place finish in 2004.

Or is it Roger Clemens who ended the decade on a bad note but pitched unbelievably earlier on and pitched in 4 World Series this decade?

Or is it Johan Santana or Pedro Martinez who you saw near the top of almost all the major categories? Pedro finished second in the Cy voting in 2002, third in 2003 and 4th in 2004 and came 5th in the AL MVP voting in 2000. Johan finished 3rd in 2005 and 2008 and had a 5th and 7th places finish.

Or maybe Javier Vazquez (consistency with double digit wins every season) or Andy Pettitte (overall wins) or Curt Schilling (early decade dominance with Red Sox and D-backs) or Roy Halladay (late decade dominance with a Cy and a 3rd, 5th and 2nd place finish) or the forgotten about Roy Oswalt (5 top-5 Cy finishes) or Mark Buerhle (quietly put up a very nice decade)?

I'll put up the choices and you can vote in the poll to the right. When you vote, let us know who you voted for and why in the comments. I'll reveal the answers once the poll is closed