Hot Stove Coal: Secondary Pitching Options Not Looking Great for Yanks

After the Red Sox broke the bank (or not) for Carl Crawford yesterday, the Yankees have seemed to step up their effort to sign the top player remaining on the market, Cliff Lee, even getting creative on contract details. While I think 7 years for a 32-year-old pitcher is pretty insane, with the Red Sox strikes leaving five lefties in the starting lineup, Lee seems like an even better option than he did a day ago. But what happens if everyone's forgone conclusion is wrong and Lee signs with the Rangers or the Angels or the Nationals or some other team? Well Yankees fans, the secondary options either aren't all that great or aren't all that available. Let's look at these outside "options" (I'm excluding guys in the minors, Ivan Nova, projects like Mark Prior, or a guy like Joba Chamberlain for now).

If Lee disappears, Yankees' options are pretty bleak (Globe & Mail)

To break down possible targets, I used Baseball-Reference's Play Index and looked for any starter who had one season of at least 3 wins (B-R WAR of 3+) in the past three years. Although this is far from a perfect metric, I figured that any starter they acquire probably will need to fit this criteria to be a viable option in the power-hitting American League East. Here's a few candidates:

Zack Greinke: He's probably not a good fit for New York with anxiety issues, but if the Yankees can get some reassurance he'd be okay in New York, I think he's firmly their "Plan B" (as has been rumored). With guys like Jeff Weaver bombing out in New York, I don't know if the Yankees would go this route again, though. I like Greinke a lot: only 27, has been excellent the past three years (though fell of just a bit last year), signed for two more years at a reasonable $13.5 M a season, and seems to want to go to a place he has a chance to win. With chips like Jesus Montero, Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain, and young pitchers to play with and a need to rebuild for the Royals, this could be a good match-up player-wise. I just worry about Greinke in the Bronx since "personality" and "adaptability to a big market" are not measurable stats.

Jered Weaver/Ervin Santana: If the Angels do somehow pull a coup and sign Cliff Lee, they may look to deal one of their pitchers for some hitting, especially considering they would have a lot of money already locked up in Lee, Scott Kazmir and Dan Haren. Could they turn around and trade one of their righty starters to the Yankees for a bat? Santana makes $8 M in 2011, $11.2 M in 2012 and $13 M (with a $1 M buyout) in 2013 and while Jered Weaver is still arbitration eligible, he is going to get a raise on his $4.265 M contract from last season and he's represented by the Angel's demon, Scott Boras. Weaver would be a real steal for the Yankees (short of Robinson Cano, I'd trade anyone for Weaver) but I can't see the Angels trading Weaver. Santana is probably much more available...but is also much less attractive. He had a good rookie season and sophomore year, fell off in 2007, had a great 2008, fell off in 2009 and was only OK last year despite the fact he notched 17 wins. Although he's only 28 and probably could be available, I wouldn't give up too much to acquire him--if the Yanks were to acquire him at all.

Matt Cain/Jonathan Sanchez: I don't see the Giants trading either one, but with their plethora of pitching, you wonder if they wouldn't think about trading one of their young studs for some hitting. Cain is signed for two more years with at least $23 M guaranteed (which could easily jump with performance bonuses)--which is not cheap for the Giants (who, of course, are still paying Barry Zito a boatload of money and whom I wouldn't even bother trading A.J. Burnett for). Sanchez is still arbitration eligible and after pitching well last season should get a nice raise on his $2.1 M salary. The biggest issue here is that many of the Yankees' best prospects are all catchers and the defending World Series champs are all set at catcher with Buster Posey. A three-way deal is the only way this would seem to be able to get done and I just don't see that happening.

Gavin Floyd/John Danks/Mark Buehrle/Edwin Jackson: I put them all together because they pitch for the same team but they are 4 very different pitchers. Gavin Floyd (discussed here as a Plan B) has been a really solid righty pitcher for the White Sox for the past three years, winning 17 games with some luck in 2008 and then hunkering down with two straight seasons of greater than 4 fWAR (his bWAR has been over 3 the past 3 years). John Danks is over two years younger, throws from the left side and has been really good the past three seasons though fell prone to the gopherball a bit more in 2009 before bouncing back last year. Mark Buehrle is also a southpaw, will be 32 next season and has been a very steady starter for the past decade, making 30 starts, winning 10 games and pitching over 200 innings every year--though he gives up a lot of hits (he led the league in hits allowed 4 out of the past 6 years). Edwin Jackson came over to the White Sox at last year's trade deadline and pitched very well for the White Sox (9.24 K/9 and 2 fWAR in only 75 innings), but he had not been good pitching for the Rays in the AL East. Buehrle makes $14 M in 2011 as the last year of his contract (though he is a 10-and-5 player and thus has a no-trade clause), Jackson makes $8.35 M in 2011 as the last year of his contract,  John Danks made $3.45 M last year and is up for a nice arbitration raise in 2011, and Gavin Floyd has two years and $12 M left on his contract (and a $9.5 M club option for 2013). Here's why I think they could be traded (from the New York Post's Joel Sherman):

A White Sox official told me he could not imagine trading ace John Danks . But in the aftermath of re-signing Paul Konerko for three years at $37.5 million, Chicago GM Kenny Williams conceded the club has just about maxed out budget so, "we have to be as creative as possible on the trade front. The free-agent front is too expensive, right now."

Still, the White Sox would be much more likely to trade Gavin Floyd or Edwin Jackson . However, they are hesitant to move a starter with youngster Chris Sale having to be slipped into the rotation while Jake Peavy rehabs from upper back surgery that cost him the final three months of last season.

Francisco Liriano/Kevin Slowey: Also from Sherman comes the Liriano/Slowey names:

Several teams have called Minnesota to inquire about the availability of ace Francisco Liriano , including the Yankees, who are making sure of what is available in case they don't land Cliff Lee . But a Twins official said the team is focused on upgrading the front of the rotation and could not imagine how they would let Liriano go unless it were a trade that led to obtaining another high-end starter.

The Twins would, however, consider trading strike-thrower Kevin Slowey , especially if they are able to re-sign free agent Carl Pavano.

Slowey is not a good option for the Yankees (a pitcher described as "strike-thrower" will not succeed in the AL East) but if Liriano is available, the Yankees should be putting all hands on deck. There is risk here since Liriano has had exactly two good season in the Major Leagues and they were 4 years apart, but Liriano just turned 27 and posted an fWAR of 6.0 last year. Like with the Giants, the Yankees' biggest problem here is that some of their best prospects are catchers and the Twins are all set at catcher and firstbase for a LONG time to come. A three-way deal is certainly a possibility, but I can't see the Twins trading Liriano unless they got a stud pitcher in return. Joe from River Ave Blues breaks down the Liriano discussion.

Tim Hudson/Derek Lowe: I don't think either one is an option but with the Braves and Yankees making deals from time-to-time, these are two names I've kept my eye on. Lowe was the second place prize in the A.J. Burnett sweepstakes a few years back and although it looked for a while like the Yankees would be runaway winners, Lowe pitched really well the last month of the season for the Braves. Hudson had a huge bounceback season last year but with his injury history and the Yankees lack of success with formerly successful NL East pitchers (Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Javy Vazquez, etc.), I'd steer clear unless the Braves want to give him away and pick up some of the $19 M he's guaranteed over the next two years (not gonna happen). Lowe I'd stay far away from too; I think Ivan Nova is a better short-term and long-term option despite Lowe's previous success in the AL East.

Matt Garza: His name has been thrown around in trade rumors but I think the Rays would rather take Garza out back and shoot him than let him go to their division rivals. These teams actually could match up on a deal players-wise, but I just can't see them actually making a deal.

Carlos Zambrano: I would think he would be readily available (at least he seemed to be about a month ago) and the new Yankees' pitching coach, Larry Rothschild certainly knows him well but if he couldn't get Zambrano working well in Chicago, why would it change in New York? I certainly wouldn't rule it out because of that familiarity, but despite the fact he's actually put up solid numbers since breaking only the scene in 2003, I think the Yankees have exceeded the volatile pitcher quota with A.J. Burnett.

Brett Myers/Wandy Rodriguez: Both could be available at some point but I don't think the Yankees would want any of them. There's a big difference between some success in Houston and sustained success in the Bronx. Myers is intriguing because of his ability to pitch out of the rotation or the bullpen but I'd leave them alone even if they were available. If I had to pick one, though, I'd certainly go with Rodriguez who, despite a rough start last year, finished really strong. However, he's already going to be 32 next tear and really only has 2 pitches which spells disaster in the AL East. Pass and pass.

Ricky Nolasco: I'm assuming that Josh Johnson isn't available but the 28-year-old Nolasco could be for the right deal. Nolasco was very good in 2008 and 2009 but took a bit of a step back last year although he was solid and had a great K/BB ratio of 4.45. The Marlins have been gauging interest in Nolasco and Nunez and the Yankees could use both of them. I don't know if there is a match here and I have no clue how Nolasco would fare in the AL East, but this is certainly an intriguing Plan C or D or E.

A few quick hits on others:

• Roy Oswalt, Ted Lilly, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum: All already traded within the past year and won't be leaving anytime soon.
• Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Joel Piniero, Kyle Lohse, Ben Sheets: Stay away
• Carl Pavano: lol
• Dallas Braden: Told A-Rod to get off his mound and I'm sure A-Rod would tell him to get off his team

As you can see, the options out there besides Cliff Lee aren't great. I hate going to 7 years but maybe 7 years is what it will take to lock up Lee--and some peace of mind. But if Lee decides to shun New York, there are other players who could become available for the right price. We'll see which ones of them get linked to the Yankees over the next few weeks and months.