A Standing O: NBA Playoffs Talk

Last Saturday night I was heading home from the bars when it started to rain. I put my head down and started hoofing it to get home. All of a sudden I knocked into a really large person and looked up to see Blake Griffin staring back down at me. I got over my initial shock, apologized and went on my way. Since the Knicks failed to win a game in these playoffs, that was about my personal excitement in these NBA playoffs. But as usual, Alex O has many more insights to give in this post:

http://www.burdandkeyz.com

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Pretty exhilarating stuff if you have been able to watch a lot of these games.

This was a great regular season of NBA basketball: The ups and downs of the “talents from South Beach”, the amazing MVP worthy year of Derrick Rose, the surprise year by the veteran Spurs, the Melo-drama, Blake Griffin!!!

A) Unfortunately the Knicks are no longer in the party. It seems they blew their load in the first 2 games and left us all wondering “what if” they closed out those games. Now we Knicks fans have chock full of teams (nemisi?? Is that the plural of nemesis?) to root against: Heat, Celtics, Bulls, & Lakers.

B) I for one was rooting for Chris Paul and the Hornets to topple the Lakers. Is it possible that the Knicks (who just picked up Chauncey Billups option for next year) could trade Burps for CP3 since their contracts are a match--- both making $14M and free agents after next year? I guess it depends on the owner of the New Orleans Hornets who is……… David Stern/NBA. Maybe the toast from LaLa/Melo’s wedding will come true?!?

C) The action I have seen these playoffs been extremely entertaining, and I missed Durant’s end of game performance that sent the Denver (Old Knicks) Nuggets packing. I did see Ibaka have a couple of nasty blocks early in the game. There is little doubt that I agree with Bill Simmons that to win the NBA crown you must be able to protect the 6 feet around the bucket. I also missed the improbable 5 points in under 5 seconds that extended the Spurs vs. Grizzlies series. I was very bummed that game was not on TNT last night. Grizzlies go home and are a 2.5 point favorite to complete the 8 beats 1 seed rarity. It is 9 pm Friday night---- only game on that night since Heat and Thunder took care of biz last night. I recommend all hoops fans to youtube the play Darell Arthur of the Grizzlies made in game 4 where he blocked the shot then chugged downcourt full speed and finished an amazing alley-oop.

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Knicks and Rangers Fooled Me Again

"There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — [pauses] — shame on you. Fool me — [pauses] — You can't get fooled again." -
George W. Bush

There really isn't much to say after last night's loss

I've been trying to write this blog post all day but it has been tough to figure out where to begin. I think that quote from Dubya seems like as good a place as any. As I look down at my hands to find that I've bitten through all my nails, I wonder how we got here? When the season started there was no reason to think that the New York Rangers or New York Knicks were real contenders. Heck, a few days before their regular seasons, I was going to be happy if one of them made it out of the first round. This is a Rangers team that got the ultimate luck to even get into the playoffs and a Knicks team that started calling random games must-wins down the stretch because they looked so helpless.

And yet I sit here with that uneasy feeling in my stomach thinking about my two teams from Madison Square Garden.

The problem is that I got fooled into thinking that they were better than they were. The Rangers have been a gritty, gutsy team that you love to root for. They block shots, they check, they forecheck, and they really seem to leave it all on the ice. Their best player is their goalie and the rest of their team is young and inexperienced and missing some of their top line forwards to injury. And yet I sat there last night thinking that a 3-0 lead was safe and lamenting that they didn't win a very winnable Game 1 because they could have been up 3-1 in the series.

Then the Caps scored two quick goals and I sadly knew the game was over. Reality set in. I sat there for the rest of the third and two overtimes just waiting for the Caps to win the game. You knew that the Rangers chances would fall by the wayside either because of a bad call or because the referee couldn't get out of their goddamn way. You knew that going 0-7 on the powerplay was going to kill them just as every poor game with the man advantage has killed the Rangers all season long. And you knew a fluky goal was going to put their season on the brink--and then it happened (off the stick of Gaborik of all people).

The problem is that the same exact thing also happened to the Knicks just a day earlier. Faced with a second consecutive chance to steal a game in Boston, the Knicks fell apart at the end. While the Rangers are young and inexperienced, they play a mostly disciplined game. The Knicks, when things fall apart at the end of the game, look like they're an 8-year-old playing basketball for the first time and their coach looks like Morris Buttermaker coaching the Chico Bail Bond Bears--before he sobered up. If the Knicks had a 15 point lead with 15 seconds left, I'd expect them to find a way to let Ray Allen drain 5 treys. It's gotten that bad.

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NYaT Roundtable: World Series Picks

We gave you our division series, ALCS, and NLCS picks but now it's time to figure out who is going to win the World Series. Here at NYaT, we didn't do well last round but we'll try to do better with the World Series which starts tonight. Here are our predictions:

Will the Giants pitch to Josh Hamilton in the World Series? (NYT)

Ari: "Texas hitting is just too strong. San Fran pitching behind the Freak has been iffy recently. The MVP will Hamilton if they pitch to him--potentially Cliff Lee if they don't." Rangers in 6 - Series MVP: Josh Hamilton

Ben P: "San Fran pitching is better than the Texas hitting" Giants in 7 - Series MVP: Pat Burrell

Ben W: "Tough choices here. No doubt in my mind it goes 7, since both teams have great starting pitching and strong bullpen arms. After Lincecum vs Lee, take your picks. I'd take Sanchez over Wilson and Cain over Lewis. But I'd also take Hamilton, Guerrero, and Cruz over Posey, Huff, and Burrell. My vote: pitching wins." Giants in 7 - Series MVP: Brian Wilson

Jay: "Just like last year, Cliff Lee will win his 2 starts. This should be a lower-scoring series than the ALCS, but the Texas lineup will score enough runs off Matt Cain and the fading Jonathan Sanchez to pull out the other 4 wins. Elvis Andrus will continue to harass the Giants by stealing 2nd and 3rd seemingly at will. Hamilton won't be walked every single trip to the plate, and he'll make San Fran pitchers pay when they finally pitch to him. Cody Ross will cool down but Buster Posey will shine on the biggest stage of them all. The ageless Vlad Guerrero will come up clutch one more time at some point, not unlike his line drive double in Game 6 of the ALCS against the Yankees." Rangers in 6 - Series MVP: Cliff "Soon to be a Yankee" Lee

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"Mad Season" for the Yankees Comes to an End

Joe Girardi's Binder was part of this Mad Season (NYT)

"I feel stupid - but I know it won't last for long
I've been guessing - and I coulda been guessin' wrong
You don't know me now
I kinda thought that you should somehow
Does that whole mad season got ya down?"
-"Mad Season" by Matchbox 20

Whenever a season ends without a championship, it sucks. As a fan, we feel betrayed, angry, and confused and want to second-guess every decision. Should they have taken A.J. Burnett out earlier in Game 4? Should they have resisted walking Josh Hamilton all those times? Should they have used CC Sabathia instead of David Robertson in Game 6? Should they have gone to Mariano in more games? We look back and we try to figure "when did this go wrong?" We look to blame someone: The Captain, the manager, the general manager, even the idiotic play-by-play guy who declared the series over and done with after the Yankees had won exactly one game. In the end, though, after digesting a tough ALCS loss, I feel that maybe we were fooled by this Yankees team, thinking they were better than they were and that we ran into a better team in the Texas Rangers.

But while I'm ready to tip my cap to the Texas Rangers and wish them luck representing the American League in the World Series, I'm not ready to put this Mad-dening Season to rest. The Yankees came into the season as World Series champs, looked like the favorite to repeat at the All-Star Break, faltered down the stretch, swept a very good Twins team in the first round, and then ran into Cliff Lee and the Rangers in the ALCS. The turning point of the season may have been the Yankees' failure to acquire Lee. I opined at the time that not acquiring Lee may be the move that cost the Yankees the pennant. I thought the lack of Lee on the Yankees was the trouble--I had no clue that Lee would actually be one of the guys to knock the Yankees out of the playoffs.

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 6

For the past history of tonight's match-up between Phil Hughes and Colby Lewis, check out the post from Game 2. Of course, what happened in Game 2 isn't included in those numbers, but they should give you a good sense of the two pitchers' history with the Yankees. As you may remember from Game 2, Lewis pitched pretty well (only two runs given up despite 6 hits and 3 walks in 5.2 innings) and Hughes got bombed. ESPN's Katie Sharp goes into greater detail on the match-up and figures out that the breaking point between the two performances occurred at two-strikes.

Phil Hughes looks focused as tonight as he tries to stave off elimination (LoHud)

In Game 2, Hughes struggled to finish off hitters when getting to two strikes, as the Rangers went 5-for-11 (.455), including four extra base hits, in two-strike counts. Hughes also left his pitches up, and the Rangers capitalized, going 6-for-8 (.750) on pitches in the upper third of the zone and above. 

This has been an issue for many of the Yankee pitchers. They have--for the most part--been OK at getting ahead in the count, but the Rangers have been able to foul off a lot of two-strike pitches. CC Sabathia had this trouble with the Rangers on Wednesday as many of the hitters battled him even with two strikes. Hughes' key tonight is finding a way to put the Rangers hitters away.

One key for Lewis in Game 2 was his use of the curveball as an out pitch, as the Yankees went 0-for-4 against the hook. Lewis was also effective in getting Yankee hitters to chase pitches, with four of his six total strikeouts coming on pitches out of the zone.

Again, the issues for the Yankees came with two strikes. It will be even more important to resist the temptation to chase pitches tonight, as free-swinging Marcus Thames will be replacing Mark Teixeira's bat in the line-up and another free-swinger--Robinson Cano--will be moving up in the lineup to the third slot. The Yankees ability to get hits off of Lewis with runners on and to get to the Rangers bullpen early will be a key to this game.

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"Was It Over When the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?"

The truth about playoff baseball is that it's all about staying alive. I'm sure there is a good deal of momentum and confidence involved in winning a seven-games series, but the truth is that most of the time, momentum--in the words of Earl Weaver--is the next day's starting pitcher. I can see what Cliff Corcoran of Pinstriped Bible means when he writes that Game 5's win feels like it's only delaying the inevitable (a lot of fans in the stands seemed to feel the same way), but I also can see a path to winning this series because of what's happened in the past. Here's what I'm hanging my head on:

Cano and Swisher hope to fuel the Yanks to 2 more wins (Gothamist)

From the time the Yankees won the 2000 American League Championship Series against the Mariners to the time they won the 2009 American League Championship Series against the Angels, there have been 10 best-of-seven series than have gone to a 6th game. In a 6th game, one team is up 3-2 in the series and the other is facing elimination--so 10 teams were in the spot that they needed to win to fight another day. But in all but one case (the 2005 NLCS), the series went to a 7th game. In the 2001 World Series, the 2002 World Series, the 2003 NLCS, the 2004 ALCS, and the 2007 ALCS, the team that was behind 3-2 in Game 6 won Game 7. The other 3 years (2003 ALCS, 2006 NLCS and the 2008 ALCS) the team that forced Game 7 eventually lost that game. Put otherwise, in those 10 series that reached a 6th game, 6 of those teams who were behind 3-2 ended up winning.

That 2007 ALCS won by the Red Sox is the ones that Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave Blues equates to the one the Yankees are currently in. Down 3-1 in the series, the Red Sox climbed back and won. Of course, the Red Sox didn't have to face Cliff Lee in a potential Game 7 (sorry, Nick), but as Neil Paine of the New York Times writes about, Lee would be no sure thing if this series got to a Game 7. Matt Warden of Yankeeist goes through some other notable postseason comebacks.

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The Clutchest of the Clutch: Best Yankee Playoff Hitting Performances Since 1995

A fan sitting behind me at the bleachers yesterday was remarking how amazing it was that Robinson Cano had gone from "un-clutch" to "clutch" and how Alex Rodriguez had gone from a playoff zero to a playoff hero. I remarked to my dad that we forget that A-Rod was really good in the 2004 playoffs before the whole team (including him) collapsed. We remember certain performances by guys but forget others. But which individual performances helped the Yankees the most to win games? We can debate if "clutch" actually exists, but there is a way to measure how much someone contributed to a Yankee playoff win. Using Win Probability Added (WPA) from Baseball-Reference, here are the Top 10 clutchest of the clutch Yankee hitters since the Wild Card Era:

Where will Jose Vizcaino's 2000 World Series heroics rank? (ESPN)

#1: Alex Rodriguez, 2004 ALDS Game 2

Alex Rodriguez shows up quite a bit at the top of this list. This performance--hitting #2 in the lineup--was the highest WPA of any Yankee player since 1995 with .684. In this game A-Rod went 4-for-6 and helped the Yankees to a big win after getting blanked in Game 1 at home. He singled and scored a run in the third, hit the go-ahead home run in the 5th, and hit an RBI single in the 7th to make it 5-3 Yankees. But his biggest hit came in the bottom of the 12th inning. Minnesota had gone ahead in the top of the inning and it looked like the Twins were going to leave New York with two wins. But facing Joe Nathan in his third inning of work, the Yankees got two on with one out for A-Rod who took a 1-1 pitch to left center for a game-tying, ground-rule double. The Yankees would win it two batters later when Hideki Matsui hit a sacrifice fly, but A-Rod's big hits contributed most to the win.

#2 Scott Brosius, 1998 World Series Game 3

There was a reason that Brosius won the World Series MVP in 1998. Brosius hit 6th for the Yankees in this game and was their only hitter with more than one hit, going 3-for-4 and putting up a .624 WPA. In a scoreless game, Brosius singled in the top of the 5th but Sterling Hitchcock let him go no further striking out Shane Spencer and Joe Girardi. The Padres took a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the 6th, and Brosius answered right back with a home run as the leadoff hitter. The Yankees would score one more that inning but trailed 3-2 when Trevor Hoffman, one of the top closers in the history of the game, came on in the top of the 8th. With two on and one out, Brosius hit a 2-2 pitch out of the park and put the Yankees ahead for good at 5-3. Brosius would hit .471 in the series but his Game 3 performance helped the Yankees go up 3-0 before sweeping the very next game.

#3: Alex Rodriguez, 2004 ALDS Game 4

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When Teixeira's Hamstring Went, So Did the Yankees

When Mark Teixeira walked to the plate in the bottom 5th inning, the Yankees had a 3-2 lead, runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out, and had a 78.4% chance of wining the game according to FanGraphs. What could have been a disaster of a night with A.J. Burnett starting seemed like it was moving towards being a huge, series-tying victory. And with a groundball to third and Tex hustling down the line (as he always does) Texeira's hamstring, the Yankees game, and possibly the Yankees season all popped.

It was a bad pitch, but A.J. shouldn't have been out there (LoHud)

The Yankees had their way with the Rangers all game, knocking out Tommy Hunter early, but had failed to capitalize with runs on the scoreboard. After Teixeira was helped off the field with his season-ending injury, the air seemed to deflate from the Yankees. To make things worse, the next batter, Alex Rodriguez, grounded into a killer double play to end the rally.

But The Yankees still had the lead and a 65% chance to win the game. So would Joe Girardi tempt fate by leaving Burnett--who had allowed 3 baserunners and a stolen base the previous inning but somehow escaped unscathed--in to start the 6th? He did. Base hit by Vlad Guerrero and Joba Chamberlain up and warm in the bullpen. So would Girardi bring in Joba to face Nelson Cruz? No, and that moved worked out for Joe as Cruz grounded into a fielder's choice. Still no Joba, though as Burnett faced Ian Kinsler who drove the ball to the deepest part of the park for an out (Cruz advanced to second on a heads-up play).

Anyone watching this game could see that Burnett was finished. Guerrero and Kinsler (both righties) had each hit the ball hard against Burnett. Joba was ready and although Joba isn't Mariano Rivera, he is slightly more effective against righties. If Girardi was a poker player, this would be the equivalent position of him being in the big blind with a 10, deuce, but staying in the hand because no one raised him out. He had the chance to bet again and the common sense would be to fold at this point.

Instead, Girardi went all in.

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 4

Whether you have faith in A.J. or have faith in the Yankees...or not, tonight is a big game. With the Yankees down 2-1, they need a good outing from the enigmatic starter. On the other hand, the young Tommy Hunter goes for the Rangers. Here's the match-up

A.J. Burnett vs. the Rangers hitters (including playoffs)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SF	IBB	HBP	GDP
Matt Treanor	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0	0	0	0
Josh Hamilton	19	16	4	2	0	1	3	2	2	.250	.368	.563	.931	0	0	1	0
David Murphy	22	17	5	0	0	1	2	4	4	.294	.455	.471	.925	0	0	1	0
Nelson Cruz	18	14	2	1	0	1	4	4	8	.143	.333	.429	.762	0	0	0	0
Vladimir Guerrero	60	56	13	6	0	2	6	4	13	.232	.283	.446	.730	0	1	0	2
Mike Young	37	36	9	1	0	1	1	1	6	.250	.270	.361	.631	0	0	0	0
Ian Kinsler	22	20	4	0	0	1	4	1	4	.200	.273	.350	.623	0	0	1	0
Elvis Andrus	17	14	3	0	0	0	0	2	4	.214	.353	.214	.567	0	0	1	0
Bengie Molina	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0	0
Julio Borbon	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	.111	.111	.111	.222	0	0	0	1
Jorge Cantu	15	15	1	0	0	0	2	0	2	.067	.067	.067	.133	0	0	0	0
Jeff Francoeur	9	7	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	.000	.111	.000	.111	1	0	0	0
Cliff Lee	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Mitch Moreland	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Total	238	213	44	10	0	7	24	20	50	.207	.286	.352	.638	1	1	4	3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/19/2010.

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Oldschool Subway, Best of 5, Cut Fastball, and Happy Thames

A few quick bullet points before I head out for the day and make my way down to the Stadium for Game 3 of the American League Championship Series:

Photo from the NY Transit Museum

Nostalgia Train

I saw this tweet from the New York City Transit: "@NYCTSubwayScoop: The Nostalgia Playoff Special departs 42nd St-Grand Central at approx 7:00pm, via express to 161st St. http://ow.ly/i/4G1g #YankeesSubway." As Ben Kabak of 2nd Ave. Sagas writes, this is a train you'll see for each of the ALCS home playoff games as you did for the ALDS.

I got a chance to ride this train to the last game at the Old Yankee Stadium and I have to say, it was an experience. I had no clue it was happening and when it showed up on the track, my jaw dropped. Definitely make sure to catch this train if you can. It's not only express the whole way, but it's really, really awesome inside and will take you back to a by-gone era.

Best of 5 Series

As Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues correctly points out, the Yankees basically have a 5-game series with home-field advantage the rest of the way out in the series. Three big games at home followed by (possibly) two more in Texas. The big issue? Cliff Lee goes twice for Texas while the Yankees only get CC Sabathia once. But, as the New York Post's Joel Sherman points out in his article stating why A.J. Burnett has to pitch tomorrow (and I agree with him), he also points this out that in a worst case scenario where the Yankees would lose the next two games: "then at least the Yanks would have Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte on normal rest to try to go on a three-game winning streak to save their season. And, you know, there is not an actual law that states the Yanks can’t beat Lee or win when Burnett starts."

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 3

1 win a piece and now we're back to New York for Game 3. This game will feature two veteran lefties who have a chance at swinging the series. Let's take a look at how they match up against the teams they're about to face:

Andy Pettitte vs. the Rangers hitters (including playoffs)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	GDP
Jeff Francoeur	11	11	6	1	0	1	1	0	1	.545	.545	.909	1.455	0	0	1
Elvis Andrus	9	5	2	1	0	0	1	4	2	.400	.667	.600	1.267	0	0	0
David Murphy	12	11	4	1	0	1	3	1	2	.364	.417	.727	1.144	0	0	0
Vladimir Guerrero	33	31	13	4	0	1	3	2	6	.419	.455	.645	1.100	0	0	0
Jorge Cantu	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.667	1.000	0	0	0
Josh Hamilton	10	10	3	0	0	1	2	0	2	.300	.300	.600	.900	0	0	0
Bengie Molina	22	22	7	0	0	1	3	0	2	.318	.318	.455	.773	0	0	1
Mike Young	38	31	9	2	0	0	6	5	9	.290	.368	.355	.723	0	2	0
Matt Treanor	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0
Ian Kinsler	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	.214	.267	.286	.552	0	0	2
Nelson Cruz	15	11	1	0	0	0	1	4	2	.091	.333	.091	.424	0	0	1
Andres Blanco	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	1	0	0
Total	173	153	50	11	0	5	21	17	27	.327	.390	.497	.886	1	2	5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/18/2010.

This is not a pretty picture for Yankee fans who are hoping that history will be on their side tonight. It's a good thing that past results are not indicative of future results. Besides Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, most of the Rangers lineup has manhandled Andy Pettitte. Pettitte's one advantage is that he's good at keeping runners close at first so hopefully that will limit the Rangers running tonight. While the individuals have been good against Pettitte, he's had a pretty good success rate against the team. In his one 2010 start, Pettitte went 8 innings in April against the Rangers, giving up only 4 hits and 2 runs, striking out 4 and walking 3. Elvis Andrus and Michael Young were the two Rangers to get to Pettitte that day.

Overall in Pettitte's regular season career he is 11-9 with a 5.24 ERA in 146 innings against the Rangers, striking out 105 and walking 51 while giving up 178 hits, but had much more success against them in the playoffs, pitching Game 2 of the ALDS in 1996, 1998 and 1999 and earning the victory in two of those three games (the 1996 game he got a no decision but the Yankees won regardless). For the Yankees to have success tonight, they will need another good start from Pettitte who went 7 innings of 2 run ball in Game 2 of the ALDS.

Cliff Lee vs. the Yankees hitters (including playoffs)

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