Cliff Lee Doesn't Hold a Candle to Mariano Rivera in the Postseason

Once the discussion started, I knew I needed to jump in: I overheard one buddy tell another on Wednesday that Cliff Lee now has to be considered the best postseason pitcher in playoff history. I usually try to bite my tongue when strangers give their opinions that I don't agree with, but here I couldn't resist. "Um, sorry to interrupt guys, but I think that Lee doesn't hold a candle to Mariano Rivera."

Cliff Lee is great--but Rivera has been better (SI)

They both looked at me like I had three heads and one said "well, Rivera is a closer so you can't compare".

Usually I'll agree here. For all Rivera's greatness, he really only pitches in less than 80 innings in a season and usually for an inning or two at most. But the fact is that Rivera's postseason resume spans across 15 seasons (and 30 series). He's 8-1, with 41 saves in 91 games pitched, he's thrown 136.2 innings, given up only 84 hits, struck out 108 and walked only 21.

And his ERA is 0.72. He hasn't walked three guys in a postseason series since he became a closer and hasn't given up a postseason home run in a decade. Since the Red Sox got to him in 2004, Rivera has let only 1 of 12 inherited runners to score and his own ERA has been 0.64 over those 21 games. Mo's playoff FIP is 2.24 but that's still over half a run lower than his regular season 2.79 mark. He also improves on his walk ratio (1.38 BB/9), HR ratio (0.13 HR/9), and LOB% (90.3%) in the playoffs. His Win Probability Added (WPA) is 11.415 in the playoffs. The man is superhuman.

That's not to say Cliff Lee isn't a beast himself. In 7 postseason starts the past two years, Lee is 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA in 56.1 innings. He's struck out 54 and walked 6, while only giving up 38 hits. In those 7 starts Cliff Lee gave up no earned runs twice, one earned run 4 times and 5 earned runs once (in Game 5 of the World Series last year). His WPA is 2.121. He's a great playoff pitcher, but he just hasn't enjoyed the success over the period of time that Rivera has.

Maybe he will someday. But not just yet.

SI's Tom Verducci tells us why we need to wait: "Remember, Orlando Hernandez started his postseason career 8-0 before losing three of his next four decisions. Orel Hershiser began 7-0 and then went 1-3." El Duque's ERA after 8 starts was even better (1.21) and his earned run totals were 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, 2, and 1. Duque's WPA was 2.298 after 8 starts. Hershiser had a 1.47 ERA after 10 starts and his earned run totals were 2, 4, 2, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1 and 1. I'm not saying that these guys won every start or were as dominant in their wins as Lee, but it's just illustrative to show that this type of streak to start a postseason career has been done before. And Lee has never pitched on short rest. Not in the postseason, not in the regular season. Never.

I may agree with Big League Stew's David Brown that there's no postseason starter I'd want more than Lee right now. But I think that when it comes to overall pitchers, I'd still take Mariano Rivera. Call me a homer, call me biased, but I think the numbers back it up: Mariano Rivera is the greatest pitcher in the history of the postseason. Now is Rivera the greatest postseason player ever? That's a discussion for another day...