The Yankee Clipper: Back-and-Forth Game 1 Goes to the Yanks

Deep breath. After two dominant pitching performances to start out the playoff day by Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, the Yankees and Twins played a see-saw, back-and-forth affair last night under the stars at Target Field. But while Francisco Liriano looked early like he'd join Halladay and Lee as number 1 starters who dominated, the Yankees late rally toppled the Twinkies once again. A few notes:

Maybe not "ever" but last night's Tex Message was exciting

1. The Grandy Man Can. Sometimes, you need to throw out the book and Joe Girardi (the man who keeps the book with him at all times) did just that last night starting Curtis Granderson against Liriano. Granderson--who couldn't hit lefties in general for most of the season--came into the game 4 for 22 against the lefty Liriano with 12 strikeouts. And in the second inning, with two on and two out, those struggles reared their ugly heads again when Granderson left the runners stranded. That was the first of 10 consecutive batters that Liriano retired including a Granderson strikeout in the fifth. So with two on and two out and the same Liriano on the mound, some wondered whether Joe Girardi may go to the bench and pinch hit Austin Kearns who has had success in limited time against Liriano. But Girardi stuck with Granderson who hit the ball about as far as you can without hitting it out and his triple was the biggest hit of the game. Granderson deserves a lot of credit for going to Kevin Long and making sure he worked on his swing and the dividends have paid off immensely. Ben Shpigel of the New York Times calls Long the Yankees "Most Valuable Repairman", Brien@IIATMS breaks down the 6th inning, and the New York Post's Joel Sherman said that Granderson went from being a "bad idea" in mid-August to an October hero.
2. Tex Message Received. As LoHud's Chad Jennings wrote, the other place that Girardi went against most people's instinct was when he stuck with Mark Teixeira struggled through the first two months. Every day he wrote his name into the lineup in the number three hole. And last night's majestic shot into the October sky again showed us that despite his slow starts, Teixeira will eventually come around and contribute. An earlier double, though, was just as big as it snapped Liriano's streak of 10-in-a-row retired and set the table for that big 6th inning. Last season, Tex hit a line drive in Game 2 of the ALDS that everyone at Yankee Stadium was yelling "get up, get up" so it would be a home run--and it was. Last night, Tex hit a high fly ball that everyone yelling "stay fair, stay fair" (including Joe Girardi who the cameras caught saying it with the rest of the fans)--and it did. Tex's second game-winning home run against the Twins in two years and off the Jesse Crain which TBS replays right before the home run showed Teixeira hitting a blast earlier this year against at Yankee Stadium. According to ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews, Tex did this all with a cortisone shot in his ailing wrist. Teixeira has played through pain much of the second half of the season and his Tex MSG got the Yankees Game 1 of the series.
3. The Great Mariano.

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The Yankees Bullpen Since the All-Star Break

The Yankees bullpen--beset by bad luck, injuries and just inconsistent pitching--looked awful at the All-Star break. Sure Mariano Rivera was still "The Great Mariano", but the mythological "Bridge to Mariano" looked like it could collapse at any second. But when the All-Star break ended something clicked with the relievers and with the acquisition of Kerry Wood, the Yankees bullpen has looked great since then. Let's take a look at the relievers (and their workload since the Texas series started):

The Yankees "Bridge to Mariano" has gotten stronger since Break (NYDN)

Kerry Wood As a Yankee: 2-0, 6 holds, 0.44 ERA in 20.2 innings with 24 K (to 11 BB), .480 OPS against, 1.190 WPA (Win Probability Added according to Baseball-Reference).

Wood gave up a home run to Toronto's Aaron Hill in his second outing in Pinstripes and has not been scored on since. In fact, that's the only time a run has crossed the plate while Wood as he has inherited 8 runners and none of those have scored either. In September he's allowed 4 baserunners out of the 28 batters he's faced. Oh, and that home run he gave up to Hill was the only extra base hit he's given up in to the 83 batters he's faced as a Yankee. Recent workload (calculated since September 10th): 4 games, 14 batters faced, 50 pitches.

Boone Logan Since A-S Break: 1-0, 7 holds, 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings with 23 K (to 6 BB), .519 OPS against, 0.397 WPA.

The amazing part is that Logan gave up a run right after the All-Star break on a home-run and a run last night--but none in between, a streak that spanned 25 outings. If you take away those two outings as well, he's been good at not allowing inherited runners to score, only allowed 13% of his 15 to cross home. Logan's biggest problem has been when he hasn't been used against lefties (as shown last night) but as a lefty specialist, he's been deadly holding lefties to a .174/.269/.203 line with one extra base hit in 78 PAs. Recent workload: 4 games, 9 batters faced, 36 pitches.

David RobertsonSince A-S Break: 2-1, 8 holds, 1 save, 1.50 ERA in 24 innings with 31 K (to 12 BB), .575 OPS against, 1.253 WPA.

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Quick Hits: FanGraphs Event, Yankee Bullpen, Mets, Cervelli, CC, Granderson, and Other Baseball Thoughts

It's time to play some catch-up on the blog. A little of a lot here on a Monday. Some quick hits for you:

- The FanGraphs Live event last Saturday in Manhattan was awesome. I thoroughly enjoyed the conference and the panels were all extremely engaging. Amanda Rykoff has a great review of the whole event at The OCD Chick, and Dave Cameron and Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs both have great recaps. A few observations/conclusions from the panel:

The FanGraphs live event was awesome

• I may be a nerd (Amanda did label this a "mini-dorkapalooza")
• Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues dislikes Francisco Cervelli as much on Twitter as he does in real life (and Jay Jaffe of Pinstriped Bible dishes out some dislike as well)
• Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues argues that the strength of the AL East pushes each team to get better
• Reporting on Twitter discourages analysis and makes it more about a personal brand
• The Wall Street Journal has a great formula for their sports section: smart, funny and analytical
• The game story is slowly leaving the papers (and with it, the need for the box score as well as Tim Kurkjian wrote on ESPN)
• Bloomberg Sports has an awesome fantasy sports tool that can even show video of Jeff Francouer drawing multiple walks
• Statistics are now for a wider audience than just nerds (though Tim Marchman of SI looks at the problems with defensive stats)
• The biggest myth in sports (according to one panelists) is that the pitcher stopping his windup mid-motion has led to a lot of injuries 
• I now own a FanGraphs t-shirt
• "Accept randomness"
• It was nice to finally meet in person people like Ben and Amanda who were, until now, just Twitter avatars and bylines on blog posts. This type of thing should occur more often.

- Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked today (re: the Yankees bullpen): "Do you believe in this group?" At one point the answer would most certainly have been no, but Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan and Kerry Wood have joined together to form a nice "Bridge to Mariano". The Yankees bullpen in August is 1-1 (the one loss came from Mariano Rivera) with a 1.02 ERA in 35.1 innings and has a WHIP of 0.991. Since July 2nd, they've only allowed 16% of inherited runners to score (which was a bugaboo for a while with this team as they were at 30% at that point). With Andy Pettitte coming back (forcing Dustin Moseley back to the bullpen), and Alfredo Aceves and Damaso Marte on the mend, this is looking like a pretty good group. And despite his latest glitch, Mariano Rivera is pretty great/probably the greatest ever. The Yankees are 62-0 when leading after 8.

-CC Sabathia is getting less strikeouts as David Golebiewski of FanGraphs pointed out today and Dave Cameron pointed out last week. Here's my theory: from 2005 to 2010, Sabathia's thrown more innings than anyone in baseball. Maybe he's resting his arm a bit knowing he has plenty of years left to pitch in baseball. While strikeouts are the surest way to prevent outs, groundouts are usually a good way as well and they usually require less pitches. That's probably a good thing for someone who will have over 20,000 pitches in a 6-year span. Like Girardi told Chad Jennings of LoHud: "we don't want to wear the big guy down."

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The Yankee Clipper: Gardner, Montero, Rivera, Cliff Lee and the Bullpen

Let's take a break from debating about what is a sport (or not, the dialog has been quite fascinating) to talk about the Yankees for a while, shall we? Let's head into our Yankee Clipper on this "Dog Day of August" Wednesday in New York (and, by the way, not much is actually wrong with the Yankees; they're still the best team in baseball. Deep breath and move on):

The Yanks need to find Jesus...and bring him up (Times-Union)

1. Brett the Jet has been grounded. Brett Gardner on July 4th: .319/.401/.434. Brett Gardner since July 4th: .169/.302/.213. I know I sometimes am not so objective on Brett Gardner--man crushes can do that for you (if I could clone Brett Gardner and have the second one run errands for me, I would...and the errands would get done really quickly). But he's lost his way. You can't steal bases if you can't get on base. The team has gone 19-11 in those 30 games, but Gardner hasn't been a main part of the cause with only 4 XBH in 89 ABs. He's still playing great defense and has an excellent WAR of 2.8 for the season, but you need to worry if he's hit a wall or teams are now adjusting to him better. Gardner is a slap hitter who can ill afford a large amount of Ks yet he's struck out over 30% of his official ABs since July 4th. His weighted on base average (wOBA) for August is .093 and he still hasn't walked in the month. Gardner needs to get himself straightened out--and fast (though the latter part of the wish is not a hard thing for the Speediest White Man).
2. Jesus rising? Matt at TYU says that we're stuck with Francisco Cervelli but down on the farm the Yankees are seeing their top prospect, Jesus Montero CRUSH the ball at Triple-A. Hopefully in 6 years the Wall Street Journal will be writing about how the Mariners passed on Montero like Brian Costa of WSJ wrote today about how the Texas Rangers passed on Robinson Cano. Sean at Pending Pinstripes says it's still too soon. Brien @ IIATMS defers to the Yankees management. Rebecca at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes says it's time. Here is video proof (H/T River Ave Blues) of Montero crushing a game-winning home run two nights ago. I can agree right now not to call him up (there's no spot for him), but if Jorge Posada lands on the disabled list with his cranky shoulder (or really anyone goes on the DL), I think Montero should be in the Bronx. At the very least, he should be up in about 2 weeks when rosters expand. This is a team that has a .297 wOBA in August as Larry from Yankeeist points out (though, to be fair, he also points out how good the pitching they've faced has been). No excuse for Montero not to be a September call-up.  For now, we need to just pray for Francisco like many pray for Jesus--Montero, that is.

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NYaT's Yankee Wishlist for the Trade Deadline

It's hard to "fix" a team that's on pace to win 104 regular season games, has the best record and run differential in baseball, and has won more games at home than Baltimore has in their entire season--but we're going to try. With the trade deadline fast approaching and Tampa Bay right on the Yankees' heels, I asked my fellow NYaT'ers what they think the Yankees need to do to put this group over the top. A compiled list of results below: 

Brett the Jet hitting #1 could help Yanks (Star-Ledger)

1. Move Brett Gardner to the leadoff spot. I'm not sure why this hasn't been done already, but I'm going to throw this out there as my personal "big fix" for the Yankees. The Yankees have argued that hitting him 9th gives them a "second leadoff hitter". Explain to me that logic? Why not just have him as your first leadoff hitter? Gardner is hitting .300/.397/.403 with a .372 wOBA and is on pace for almost 50 steals. Derek Jeter is having a down year, hitting .274/.338/.388 with a .324 wOBA which is just a tick under Juan Miranda's. And yet Jeter is unmovable from the leadoff spot while Gardner is left for the bottom 3rd of the lineup? The Yankees have been at a loss to find their #2 hitter since Nick Johnson went down with an injury early in the season, but I'm pretty sure their solution has just been hitting first. Imagine how much better the Yankees lineup would be with Gardner-Jeter-Tex-ARod-Cano-Posada-Swisher. Moving Swisher down creates more of a fluid lineup and will stretch their lineup even deeper. Gardner also gets on base vs. lefties (remember when the Yankees were worried about his right-handed caddy for Gardner instead of for Granderson) with a .391 OBP.

And here's another factor: Gardner leads the Major Leagues in pitchers per plate appearance at 4.61 (and by a lot). The last guy to even approach that number was Rickey Henderson's 4.55 in 1997. That many pitches makes the starter work harder and helps to tire him out faster. And, by the way, the last Yankee to have an OBP of at least .397 and steal 45 bases? Rickey Henderson in 1985. I'm not saying that Gardner is Rickey--but wouldn't you want to give him more plate appearances to find out?

Joba hasn't stepped up as the "Bridge to Mariano" (NYDN)

2. An upgrade in the bullpen. This is where my compadres and I differ in our opinions. I've seen the Yankees waste decent prospects on mediocre relievers just to theoretically get a small advantage before the trade deadline. I saw the Red Sox go out and get Eric Gagne in 2007. I'm just not a fan of the big fix reliever. I don't think they exist. You need a closer, and some solid guys in front and that's it, in my opinion. The Yankees could tweak that bullpen by calling back up Jonathan Albaladejo and Ivan Nova (and getting rid of dead weight guys like CHoP and Chad Gaudin). But others differed.

Paul said: "They don’t need to do much but the one issue is the bullpen. They need help, I just don’t know who. I would love Scott Downs but the Jays are asking too much. I don’t want them to trade any good prospects for middle relief so they should be careful. I also hope they don’t trade Joba."

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The Yankee Clipper: Relief Pitching

I feel like "relief" should be in quotes to emphasize the fact that the Yankees bullpen crew hasn't exactly been "lights out". So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the starters, but the relievers--oh boy. It's praying for 6-7 innings from the starters, hold your breath for an inning or two and then TGFMR (which of course stands for Thank God For Mariano Rivera). The trade deadline is fast approaching but the the relievers available look ugly at best. Let's take a look at the guys the Yankees currently have:

1. Mariano Rivera. Where would the Yankees be without The Great Mariano? Worse, where will they be eventually without Rivera? Since Mo became the Yankees full-time closer in 1997, the Yankees have had 30 different relievers save games--Mo has 541 and there are only three guys who have more than 7 (Ramiro Mendoza at 16, Mike Stanton at 15, and Steve Karsay at 12). But while he's still here, let's appreciate the man. So far into 2010, Rivera is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA, and 20 saves (in 22 chances). Since May 24th when Rivera gave up a run against the Mets, Mo has pitched in 21 games, gone 3-0 with 12 saves, has an ERA of 0.40 and the line against him is .122/.167/.135. Oh, and he's supposedly doing this all with multiple injuries and at age 40. His WHIP is 0.645, his H/9 is 4.3 and his ERA + is 405 which are all career bests. Alas, some correction is probably in order. He's held opposing batters to a .194 BABIP which is pretty hard to keep up even for Mariano (his career mark is .274). He's allowed 3.1% of his flyballs to leave the park which is well-below his mark of 6.4% since 2002 or his 15.2% of 2009. And so while his ERA is sitting at 1.01 , his FIP is 2.25 and his xFIP is 3.11. The correction may  not be that large, however; Rivera has outperformed his FIP every season since he's been closer except 2001 and 2007. Rivera's strikeouts are a tick down (first time he hasn't struck out a batter per inning since 2006), but everything else is right on par. One interesting development for Rivera: while everyone thinks that sending a righty up is better than a lefty, lefties are actually hitting Rivera slightly better in 2010 (it's all relative) with a .471 OPS compared to a .336 OPS vs righties. And get this: Rivera's SO:BB ratio vs. righties is 23 to 1 and he's allowed zero runs vs. righties in 2010. Let's hope Rivera--the 1999 World Series MVP and 2003 ALCS MVP--continues to play at this level for a very long time. Best Month: June 2-0, 7 saves, zero runs allowed in 11 games, 4 hits, 11.1 K/9, 0.462 WHIP, 8.00 SO/BB.
2. Joba Chamberlain. My "Joba Rules" t-shirt is slowly becoming obsolete. ESPN's Rob Neyer wrote today about Chamberlain's luck and you hope that those numbers turn around. I agree with Neyer that we won't ever see the Joba we saw in 2007. But I'll take (and most Yankees fans would agree) the Joba who pitched in 2008. The Yankees jerked around Joba for so long and wonder now why he's struggling--is it really any surprise to anyone. Some have suggested trading him (horrible idea considering his low trade value), moving him to the rotation (fine idea but he's not stretched out right now), or sending him down to the minors (a kick in the ass, sure, but what else would this accomplish except put another hole the Yankees bullpen?). This bit from Bloomberg Sports is why Yankees fans are frustrated with Joba: " The big right-hander's ERA stands at 5.77, his WHIP's at 1.51, with opponents now hitting a robust .290 against him. He has not had more than three consecutive scoreless appearances since the middle of May. Of the 11 appearances in which he has allowed a run this year, he has allowed either 3 or 4 runs in five of them, a trend that makes it all but impossible for him to consistently lower his ERA." Despite all that the article (and Neyer's as well) suggests what I suggest with the Yankees and Yankee fans when it comes to Joba: patience. He's struck out almost 10 batters per 9 and walked less than the previous two years. He's not been victim to the longball, but he's just gotten hit all around the park. Eventually, some of those balls are going to get caught. And when it does, I really think that Joba's numbers will fit perfectly in line with 2008 where all his peripherals looked exactly the same but instead of a 5.77 ERA, he had a 2.60 ERA. The road right now has been quite bumpy, but hopefully the Yankees don't panic and acquire an 8th inning guy (or trade Joba), when he may possess exactly what they need to bridge to Mo. The big thing for Joba (in my opinion): stop making the first pitch so hittable. It's important to get first pitch strikes (and hitters hit only .170 against Joba when he gets ahead of them) but batters are hitting .611 against Joba on the first pitch, a sure sign that they're just waiting on fastballs to drive. It's tough right now (as as the New York Daily News wrote, Girardi has put Joba on notice) but I have some faith Joba (2nd in the league in holds) will yet turn it around. Best Month: April 3.48 ERA in 11 games, 1.258 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.33 SO/BB.

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My All-Star Team: American League Pitchers

We've tackled the hitters from the American League and the hitters from the National League, now we'll try to tackle the American League pitching. There's only one qualification: starters need to qualify for the ERA title. Let's go through process of elimination to fill out the rest of our team which will include 8 starters and 5 relievers.

Starters: 55 starting pitchers qualify for the ERA title. We need to whittle that 55 down to 8 so let's start by cutting all pitchers with an ERA that isn't under 4.50. It's not the best statistic to start out with since it eliminates hard-luck guys like Gavid Floyd (4.80 ERA but 3.47 FIP), Luke Hochevar (4.96 ERA but 3.86 FIP) and Brandon Morrow (4.50 ERA but 3.43 FIP). It also eliminates such big names as A.J. Burnett (5.25 ERA), Ben Sheets (5.01 ERA), Jake Peavy (4.71 ERA), John Lackey (4.69 ERA), and Mark Buehrle (4.58 ERA). Some of them may have some great peripheral statistics and just have gotten burned, but if you have an ERA of 4.50 or above, you're not an All Star in my book.

Now we're down to 30 pitchers. Next we'll eliminate anyone whose winning percentage is less that .450 and haven't won more than 5 games. That gets rid of Zack Greinke (3-8), Dallas Braden (4-7), Jeremy Guthrie (3-9) and Jeremy Bondermon (4-5). Greinke is a tough loss here, but at 3-8, it's tough to convince me he's an All Star. I know that Win-Loss record is not a good metric to go on, but the truth is that despite Greinke or Braden's great pitching, their teams haven't won enough games to get them to the All-Star game. 26 left.

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How to Correctly Use a Bullpen

Many times I shake my head at the bullpen usage of Major League managers. No matter how many new tools are available to managers, they find more ways to micromanage bullpens and use relievers in rigid, antiquated ways. Roles are set and cannot be undone regardless of the circumstances. Closers can only pitch the 9th and will only do so in save situations. But sometimes you see a manager do something smart and it helps his team win a game. Yesterday in the Colorado vs. San Francisco game, Jim Tracy made one of these good decisions.

The Rockies were in desperate need of a win after falling in the first two games of the series. They started a rookie, Jhoulys Chacin, in his second career start and he was really good, giving the Rockies 7 innings of one-hit ball, striking out 7 and walking only 3 as the Rockies held a 4-0 lead into the 8th. Right handed reliever Matt Daley allowed a double, got an out and then served up a single to Aaron Rowand leaving the situation for Jim Tracy where he had runners at first and third and one out. Coming up next was left-handed hitting John Bowker, switch hitting Pablo Sandoval (who has an OPS 334 points higher and wOBA 124 points higher from the left side), and, potentially, left-handed hitting Aubrey Huff.

Tracy decided not to mess around with middle relievers. He realized the game was right here. He went straight to his closer, Franklin Morales, a power lefty. Morales struck out pitch hitter Andres Torres and then struck out the Giants' best hitter, Pablo Sandoval. Inning over and threat diverted. That was your high leverage situation and Morales was brought on at the right time to get the Rockies out of it.

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NYaT Roundtable: Joba, Hughes and the 5th Starter Debate

You know that your team is going into a season with few question marks when you get into a heated debate about who the 5th starter is going to be. But that's where we are in Yankee-land. It's not a small issue either--with Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez reaching free agency after the season ends, the Yankees may need to fill quite a few slots behind CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. And with the workload that Sabathia has undergone the past few seasons and the health question marks surround Burnett, this is not a small issue. But I wanted to throw it out there to my friends and blog contributors and see what they think. So we started a roundtable debate on Joba and the 5th starter role. I thought it was a wonderful idea by Pinstriped Bible and I thought we could continue the debate

The Yankees 5th starter debate is not just Joba Chamberlain vs. Phil Hughes but where the rest of the group fits in. Here's what resulted (started on Friday night):

--Andrew: Everyone knows where I stand on this issue because I've written about it before: let’s let Joba, rule-less, go through an entire regular season and see if he can duplicate the success he showed last year before they jerked him around with Joba Rules III. Before they willy-nilly instituted those rules, Joba showed flashes of brilliance, going 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA and dominating in three starts right after the All Star Break. The Yankees then pulled the rug out from under him and he struggled mightily in his mishmosh of a role. I rather give it to Joba and see what he can do over an entire season than give it to Phil Hughes who may be able to throw a max of about 125 innings.

I'll open the floor, though: what do you guys think?

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The Good and The Bad of the Chan Ho Park Signing

For those that missed it, The New York Post's Joel Sherman reported this morning that the Yankees have signed Chan Ho Park to a $1.2 million contract with another $300,000 in incentives. I have to say that I'm a bit surprised by this signing considering it looked like the Yankees had enough candidates for their bullpen. But as with every signing, there are good sides and bad sides to it. Let's explore:

The Good:

Chan Ho Park showed last season that he was a much better pitcher as a reliever than a starter (and according to Sherman, Park is not in contention for the Yankees' 5th starter job). Via Baseball-Reference, in Park's 7 starts, he had a 7.29 ERA, 1.740 WHIP, 5.7 SO/9 and 1.24 SO/BB. In his 38 games out of the bullpen, Park had a 2.52 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 9.4 SO/9 and 3.25 SO/BB. Park was even better in the World Series against the Yankees, pitching 3.1 innings in 4 games, and giving up 2 hits, no runs and striking out 3. The Phillies also acquired Park after seeing him in the playoffs as he had pitched for Joe Torre's Dodgers in the 2008 playoffs against the Phillies.

It seems that performance put Park on the Yankees radar. And when his price continued to fall (Park had rejected a $3.25 million offer to stay with the Phillies), the Yankees pounced. As Sherman points out, the Yankees traded away Brian Bruney because they believed he would make too much money in arbitration. Well Bruney made $1.5 M and all that Park is guaranteed is $1.2 M. And I much rather have Park than Bruney. Especially considering that the Yankees have lost their entire Asian presence this season with Hideki Matsui in Anaheim and Chien-Ming Wang in Washington.

From Sherman: "As a reliever, the Yankees noticed, Park’s stuff played up; his fastball reached 96 mph and his curveball remained crisp. The Yanks also liked that Park had a reputation as a good teammate who works hard to stay in shape." (Whoa, someone pitched better as a reliever than a starter...could this be a pattern?) This could mean the Yankees will feel comfortable sending the loser of the Joba/Hughes 5th starter battle to the minors instead of the bullpen, but Sherman doesn't think so. Although Park's overall ERA last season was 4.43, FanGraphs has his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 3.49. Park's FIP as a relief pitcher in 2009 was 2.10 and as FanGraphs' Dave Cameron points out, Park has been remarkably effective. Park's value last year was 1.5 WAR or $7.0 M. It's a pretty low-cost obligation for a Yankees team that is being built for October. 

The Bad:

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3 Reasons The Yankees Need To Make Joba the 5th Starter

Has any pitcher who was so young created so much controversy, debate and intrigue? Joba Chamberlain went through the hyped up prospect stage, the dominant reliever stage, the midge incident, an injury, the starter/reliever debate, many iterations of the "Joba Rules", back-and-forth between the bullpen and rotation, and the guy is only 24 and just won his first World Series ring. I figured that after all the crap that the Yankees have put Joba through, that 2010 would be the year they let go of the Joba Rules, let him air it out, and see what happens. So I was very disappointed to see John Harper's New York Daily News article today which basically makes it seem that the Yankees feel Joba should be a reliever. Ugh. So let's go one more time through why Joba needs to be a starter with 3 easy-to-follow reasonings:

1.  When he was really a starter in 2009, he was very good. Joba was rolling along through the end of July when the Yankees decided it would be a good idea to screw with his schedule and change the amount of innings he threw. I understand the thought behind it--keep him under a certain amount of innings--but the execution made no sense. Joba is a pitcher who is all about rhythm with his pitching. When he's in a groove, he rears back, throws, gets the ball back and repeats. When he's off, he's walking around the mound, shaking off the catcher, laboring, and nibbling at the corners. The Yankees basically found the best way to screw up that rhythmic success he had developed. Joba's last three starts before the end of July were 6.2, 7.0 and then 8.0 innings long, he pitched 100 pitches in each and gave up a total of 2 earned runs (0.83 ERA). He held opponents to a dominant.114/.222/.200 line and looked very much like the pitcher we all wanted him to be. And then the Yankees pulled out the rug from under him. Let's look at his stats before and after July from Baseball-Reference:

• Before: 20 starts, 7-2, 3.58 ERA, 110.2 IP, 105 H, 44 ER, 50 BB, 97 K, 13 HR, .254/.347/.403 vs
• After: 11 starts, 2-4, 7.52 ERA, 46.2 IP, 62 H, 39 ER, 26 BB, 36 K, .316/.397/.515 vs

And here's how that looked month-by-month:

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The Yankees Set-Up Dilemma

A week ago we discussed the dilemma facing the Yankees in finding their bridge to Mariano Rivera. As we approach Game 6, the Yankees have the same dilemma. First, here's how you, the readers, voted in the poll:

Who Should Be the Yankees Set-up Man?

Phil Hughes	18%
Joba Chamberlain	24%
David Robertson	12%
Alfredo Aceves	0%
Phil Coke	0%
Damaso Marte	0%
Chad Gaudin	0%
Brian Bruney	3%
Mix-and-Match	9%
Mariano Rivera himself	33%

I hope that the vote for Brian Bruney was a joke. I would rather see Nick Swisher pitching in a big spot in this World Series than Brian Bruney (or Phil Coke for that matter). The other votes fluctuated wildly as the series began and went on. Mix-and-match is certainly an option as will A.J. Burnett (especially after only pitching 2 innings last night) but let's go through the other options:

5. Damaso Marte (0%). You don't know how painful it is for me to write his name there. This is a guy who had a 9.45 ERA in the regular season and was part of what may be one of the worst Yankee trades in a long time. But besides a rough first round, he's been lights out in the playoffs, not surrendering a baserunner in the ALCS or World Series. Marte has been great at neutralizing the lefties on the Phillies and has also gotten out some righties. He also has past World Series pitching experience (with the White Sox in 2005) and closer experience (with the Pirates last year and the White Sox in the early 2000s). The problem? He had a 9.45 ERA and pitchers, in the end, usually pitch to their averages. It seems like it's just a matter of time before Marte blows up. Here are his stats so far this playoffs:



4. David Robertson (12%). No offense to Mariano Rivera, but Robertson, in his short amount of work, may be the best reliever the Yankees have thrown out there. He led the league in K/9 in the regular season and has gotten the Yankees out of tough jams in the playoffs. The problem? He only turned 24 this season and he doesn't even have 80 innings of professional work. And while Girardi has shown faith in bringing him out in situations where he needs a big strikeout, he's not shown the willingness to bring him into a game in a big spot yet. Would Girardi put himself on the line by using Robertson in a big spot in a deciding game of the World Series? I doubt it, but maybe he should rethink that. Here is Robertson's output so far this playoffs:



3. Joba Chamberlain (24%). What to make of Joba? He looked absolutely vintage Joba the other night until he left a fat meatball over the plate to Pedro Feliz who deposited it into the seats. Joba looked so shaken up on the bench afterward that he looked on the verge of crying as he thanked A-Rod and Jorge Posada for bailing him out. That's not the strong demeanor of a set-up man you're looking for. His inconsistency thus far in the season and the playoffs are not what you want in a set-up man either. Do you trust that his naturally great stuff is now back after he showed it for two batters two nights ago or or do you think the Yankees are better off not pitching him in big spots? One plus on Joba's side: unlike the regular season, he has not walked a batter in 5.1 innings in the 2009 postseason. Here are his 2009 playoff stats:



2. Phil Hughes (18%). Hughes vote total plummeted as the series progressed. And with good reason. Even after 1.1 scoreless innings last night, Hughes' World Series ERA is 16.20. Ouch. But Hughes was Girardi's go-to guy in the bullpen for the second-half of last season and has some great stuff when he's on. He looked on last night and if he can build on that momentum, he should be the first guy out of the Yankees bullpen not named Mariano Rivera. But do you actually trust him? I don't think so. His curveball is his best pitch when he's on but the key for it is to miss low; instead, it's hung too much and Hughes has been hit hard. If the Yankees need more than 6 outs, I wonder if Girardi has faith in going to him for an inning (or sharing an inning with Marte). Here's his 2009 playoff numbers:



1. Mariano Rivera himself (33%). While Hughes vote total plummeted, this number went way up. The question is, how many outs can you use the greatest postseason pitcher for? Ben discusses that in his post on the subject. My opinion? If it's Game 7 and you haven't used him in Games 5 or 6, I think he may go for 8 outs...but how about if the Yankees have a lead tomorrow night? Many would say "go for the jugular" and use him for 3 innings...but what if the Yankees lose and Rivera is blown out? Do you go with A.J. Burnett as the closer in Game 7? I think you ask Mo how many pitches he has in his arm, and understanding he's 40 and has a lot of wear and tear on that right shoulder, you throw him out there cautiously. The key tomorrow night would be to get 7 from Pettitte, get the lead, and go to Mo for 2. But I think that's about all you can use Mo for. Maybe 7 outs. But that's about it. Game 7, though, you bring him out there in the 7th and ride him home like they did in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. Here's Mo's 2009 postseason stats:



So who should be the Yankees set-up man in Game 6 and a possible Game 7 of this World Series? Leave your answer in the comments below

Picture from The Star-Ledger

Who Provides the Bridge to Mariano?

As we get ready for the World Series to start, there are still a few questions that the Yankees still have to answer. One of the biggest is who will be Mariano Rivera's set-up man (or men) when Joe Girardi goes to the bullpen? Let's take a look at the candidates (from the bottom up):

6. Brian Bruney

I already said why Brian Bruney in the bullpen is a bad idea. I still think it is. Who do you take off for him? The Phillies have the lefties (Ibanez/Chase Utley/Ryan Howard) necessary to keep the LOOGYs. They're not going to get rid of Gaudin because of his ability to be the long man. The only possibility is if David Robertson is hurt. But while Brian Bruney used to be the most reliable man in Girardi's bullpen, he's far from that now. I think Bruney only makes the roster if there is an injury.

5. Chad Gaudin

By the time the World Series starts, Gaudin will have only thrown 2.1 innings in a month. Not exactly fresh and ready. But this team may need a fourth starter, especially if their is a rainout, and Gaudin could (potentially) start for the Yankees. His experience in the NL may prove valuable, though the only two Phillies he has any real experience against are Raul Ibanez (who's hit him) and Pedro Feliz (who has not). He could be a valuable righty reliever with his propensity to get righties out with guys like Feliz and Jayson Werth in the lineup.

4. Phil Coke
4a. Damaso Marte

Phil Coke (.584 LH OPS against) and Damaso Marte (.494 LH OPS against) both can get out lefties. The lefties have been good this postseason. Both Marte and Coke have gotten 1.1 IP and neither have given up a run. Marte was not good in the division series but Girardi showed faith in him against both righties and lefties. Coke has been the better pitched all season long but is a rookie and Marte has experience pitching in the World Series with the White Sox.

3. Alfredo Aceves

"Ace" had 10 wins out of the bullpen and was one of their most reliable relievers all season long. The problem with Ace, as we've discussed, is he's not the same pitcher since the Yankees gave him a spot start in July. He may be hurt, but he doesn't look like the same pitcher. Can Girardi rely on him in a big situation? He's been going to him quite a bit so far, but the Mexican League find may have lost favor with Girardi after struggles this postseason

2. David Robertson

He had the highest K/9 innings of any pitcher in the American League (min. 40 innings) and only Jonathan Broxton had more in the Major Leagues. He hasn't given up a run yet this playoffs and his pitched out of huge spots. The one question mark here: health. The Yankees shut him down for a while in September because of arm troubles and one of Girardi's reasons for taking him out against the Angels (the debacle where Aceves came in) was that he seemed to have decreased velocity. The fact that Girardi didn't even warm him up again may not be a good sign about his health. But if he's healthy, he's really good...as long as he's not walking people.

1. Phil Hughes
1a. Joba Chamberlain

Some people feel that the Yankees season turned around in 2007 when Joba entered the bullpen. Some people feel that the Yankees season turned around in 2009 when Hughes entered the bullpen. I took a look at a comparison of the two of them and in the small sample size, Hughes had succeeded slightly more than Joba in the bullpen. In the playoffs, Joe Girardi seemed to have confidence in both, but went to Joba earlier, relying more on Hughes to be the bridge to Mariano. Then, in the final game, the Yankees went to Joba in the 7th...and then Mo in the 8th. So who does Joe go to in the World Series in the 7th and who in the 8th? I think he still goes to Joba in the 7th and Hughes in the 8th. Neither have been great this postseason, but I think they go back with what worked so well in the regular season.

Girardi could of course mix-and-match with their bullpen options: bringing in Coke and Marte just for lefties, Aceves for righties who struggle against offspeed pitches and Robertson for those who struggle against the hard stuff. This, of course, is an open invitation for Joe Girardi to overmanage once again, but it could be the best way to get through a tough Phillies lineup rather than relying on the conventional "roles".

There is one more option: go with Mariano Rivera as his own set-up man. Like the Yankees did in Game 6 of the ALCS, Girardi can choose to go to Rivera for 6 outs. He's gone to him for 4 or 5 outs on many occasions this season so this is not out of the realm of possibilities. With all the off days, Rivera could possibly pitch a little more than usual. It'll be interesting to see who Girardi goes to in a big spot in the World Series.

Who do you think Joe should go to? The poll is already up so vote on the right!

Why Brian Bruney in the Bullpen is a BAD Idea

Listen, I know that it's tempting to have Brian Bruney in the bullpen. He was, by far, the best reliever on the Yankees early in the season. And, at times, he showed great stuff late in the season. But he is too inconsistent/stubborn to be trusted. He tries to throw everything through the wall which is great against the Baltimores and Torontos of the American League, but when you go up against a team like the Angels, it doesn't work as well.

But, courtesy of Keith Law, here's a much, much better reason why Bruney should be left off the ALCS roster:

Joe Girardi will be managing in his first postseason, and while the offense can probably manage itself, he does have a tendency to overthink his bullpen decisions, and I'm concerned he'll indulge his irrational attachment to Brian Bruney in a leveraged situation, or try to extend a specialist like Coke or Gaudin with superior options left in the 'pen. I know Bruney throws hard, Joe, but you can throw hard and still be terrible.

See: Farnsworth, Kyle.

At least with Marte he knows that he can't face righties (they absolutely murder him), but Joe has the idea that Bruney can get out anyone (he's given up 3 HR in 5 games pitched in Anaheim in his career...yikes!).

But Marte isn't good either. There is a myth that Marte was much better when he came off the DL late in the season. Although he was unscored upon in 2.1 innings in August, he had a 7.94 ERA in limited work in September/October. Yes, there is supposed value as a lefty specialist only because lefties hit .120/.214/.280 against him this season. But the two lefties he faced in the ALDS both got hits off of him and the only lefty in the Angels lineup is Bobby Abreu.

Side Note: Girardi may be tantalized by the small sample size of success he's had against some of the tougher Angels against the Yankees: in 30 PA, Torii Hunter, Chone Figgins, Gary Matthews and Abreu have amassed only two hits and 4 walks to 9 Ks. But this is exactly why a small sample size should never be used to make decisions like these. He also may be intrigued to turn Kendy Morales around but Marte gave it up to righties to a tune of .414/.485/.690 (Coke was at least a "manageable" .227/.346/.432 vs. righties). Don't be tempted Joe!

I think Joe should go with another set of legs off the bench (Freddy Guzman or Ramiro Pena), but if he has to go with a pitcher, he should go with Marte over Bruney just because he may be tempted to trust him a big too much when he has much better options in the bullpen.

Playoff Comebacks, Closer Failures, and the Growing Mariano Rivera Fan Club

Let me first say that the Mariano Rivera Fan Club should be growing exponentially. After watching some of the best closers in the games blow up this postseason, it makes you appreciate Mariano Rivera more and more. Here is a series-by-series breakdown of the 9th inning comebacks vs. All-Star closers in this division series.

Yankees vs. Twins, Game 2 - Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in the game (47/52 on save opportunities) and has been for a few years. The Yankees were down by two runs entering the 9th inning. Mark Teixeira led off with a single and Alex Rodriguez followed up by despositing a 3-1 pitch into the Yankees bullpen. Mark Teixeira would win it with a walk-off in the bottom of the 11th. Nathan would also allow two inherited runners to score in Game 3, helping the Yankees seal the series. Let's look at Nathan's regular season stats:



Dodgers vs. Cardinals, Game 2 - Ryan Franklin has had a very good year (38/43 on save opportunities) although he struggled a bit down the stretch. Franklin game on with a 2-1 lead in the 9th and one out and got Manny Ramirez to fly out to CF. James Loney hit a line drive to left that should have been caught by Matt Holliday for the 3rd out, but even with his drop, there was only a runner on second and two outs. But that error let the floodgates open. Casey Blake walked, Ronnie Belliard singled, Franklin threw a passed ball, Russell Martin walked, and then pinch hitter Mark Loretta got the game-winning single. Even after Holliday's drop, the Dodgers only had a 14% chance of winning, so Franklin deserves some of the blame here. The Cards would never recover en route to being swept by the Dodgers. Here are Franklin's stats for the regular season:



Angels vs. Red Sox, Game 3 - Jonathan Papelbon has been one of the best regular season and postseason pitchers in recent years and this year was no exception (he was 38 out of 41 on save opportunities). His 26 scoreless innings to start his career were the most since Christy Mathewson from 1905-1911. So when Papelbon entered a 5-2 game with four outs to go, it looked over. He allowed two inherited runners to score in the top of the 8th, but got out of it with a one-run lead. It looked over after the Red Sox added an insurance run in the bottom of the 8th to make it 6-4. It looked even more over when Papelbon got two quick outs and had an 0-2 count on Erick Aybar. The Angels had a 1% chance of winning that game. But then Aybar singled, Chone Figgins walked, Bobby Abreu doubled, Torii Hunter was intentionally walked (a boneheaded move in my opinion), and then Vladamir Guerrero made the Red Sox pay by knocking in two runs to make it a 7-6 game. The Red Sox would not be able to rally in the bottom of the 9th ending the series in front of a stunned Fenway crowd. Papelbon was booed off the field. Here was his statline for the regular season:



Phillies vs. Rockies, Game 4 - I detailed this one earlier today. Huston Street came in as one of the best closers in the game, enjoying one of his finest seasons. (35 out of 37 on save opportunities). Street had already suffered a loss in Game 3 so it wasn't like he was guaranteed to be lights out. But Street looked like he may be able to send this one back to Philly for a 5th game. He came on to get 3 outs with a 4-2 lead. He struck out pinch hitter Greg Dobbs swinging, and after Jimmy Rollins reached on an infield single, he got Shane Victorino to ground into a fielders choice. There were two outs, a two-run lead, and only a runner at first. The Phillies only had a 4% chance of winning the game. But then Chase Utley drew a huge walk and Ryan Howard followed with a booming double off the right field wall. He then had a 2-2 count on Jayson Werth before Werth #fisted one to CF for the game winner. Here's what Huston Street did in the regular season:



So my friends, this should make you appreciate Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, and, yes, even Brad Lidge a little more today. Sam Borden, Ken Davidoff, Joel Sherman, and Ken Rosenthal opine on the same subject.

Pretty remarkable stat from Davidoff (via the Elias Sports Bureau), in the 2009 division series, relievers converted on only a 53.8% success rate. In the 2009 regular season, relievers converted only a 67.2% success rate (this includes set-up men as well). Mariano Rivera has a 89.5% career mark and is 35-40 (87.5%) in the playoffs. I feel like that Mariano Rivera Fan Club should be growing even more.

NYP: Joba Is Going to Stay in Bullpen for Playoffs

Well this isn't unexpected, but it's still surprising. From the New York Post's Joel Sherman:

Should the Yankees advance to the ALCS, they are leaning heavily toward using Chad Gaudin rather than Joba Chamberlain as the Game 4 starter, The Post has learned.

--snip--

The Yankees want Chamberlain available to impact multiple games as a reliever rather than be a questionable starter for one game. Even if Gaudin were to have a short start, the Yankees have Alfredo Aceves and possibly even Chamberlain to eat up innings in long relief.

In addition, with an off-day scheduled after ALCS Game 4, the Yankees could empty their pen in support of Gaudin, and still have all of their relievers available for a Game 5. There also is a scenario if the Yankees were to sweep this Division Series they could use three starters with CC Sabathia working once on short rest.

Well there it is. If they get to that point, let's hope that Gaudin's starts aren't too short or too bad. It's great and all to have such a deep bullpen, but if you're starting pitching performs, when do you use these guys? CC on short rest makes some sense as well, but they've worked so hard to keep him on regular rest after his lack of success last year on short rest in the playoffs, do they really want to do that? As a short-term move, though, I can live with this. Joba, Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera can all be extended and really shorten a game for the Yankees. It also lessens the wear and tear on Joba's arm, as less postseason innings for his season should be an added benefit of this move.

The reason I am surprised is that Joba has pitched well against the Red Sox this season so if they're the opponent, it seems like it may backfire. The one thing that may ease the fears of Joe Girardi? Gaudin has a 2.64 career ERA in 30.2 innings against Boston. It's not much of a sample size, but it'll have to do if the Red Sox are the opponent.

Paul--who is an ardent Joba-to-the-'pen supporter--probably feels like he won the argument, but I think this is just a temporary move for the playoffs. Hopefully we'll see Joba and Hughes in the rotation next year...with renewed confidence...and World Series rings.

Joba vs. Hughes: Who is a Better Reliever?

As we come to the end of the year, I think it's finally time to look back at the set-up terms of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes to see who performed better:

Joba Chamberlain: 3-2, 1 save, 1.53 ERA, 49 games, 59 innings, 39 hits (11 XBH), 2 HR, 20 BB, 78 K, 1.000 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 3.90 SO/BB, .185/.259/.261 slashes against

Phil Hughes: 5-1, 3 saves, 1.24 ERA, 42 games, 50.2 innings, 28 hits (4 XBH), 2 HR, 13 BB, 64 K, 0.809 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 4.92 SO/BB, .160/.218/.211 slashes against

I know it's a small sample size, but I think that Phil Hughes has been an even better reliever than Joba (as amazing as that is for some people to believe). And if you take their ALDS performance in 2007 when both pitched out of the bullpen, Hughes climbs even more.

More on Joba:

• Jack Curry compares the Joba Rules to Justin [Verlander] Rules. The big difference? Verlander was 26 and already had built up the innings. Joba is 24 and is still building up arm strength.
• Rob Neyer writes that Joba sealed his ALDS fate with last night's start. Though I have to disagree with Rob that Joba shouldn't pitch in the series. Can he not be a help for the bullpen with the numbers he's put up in the past two years working out of there?
• Before Joba's start against the Red Sox, Sweeny Murti asked if the Yankees had ruined Joba. I agree with Sweeny when he says that Joba's 24; let's see what happens with him. Look at Zack Grienke's career path before you declare Joba "ruined".
  
• After watching him pitch well against the Red Sox, Sam Borden wrote that Joba responded to a stern approach. I believe this is how the Yankees should have treated Joba all along. The Yanks got into trouble handing spots to Joba, Hughes and Ian Kennedy last season. They need to be a little less nuturing and a little more firm.
• Within this piece, Peter Gammons says that Joba is important to the Yankees run in the postseason because he could make two Game 4 starts.
  

More on Hughes:

• Bob Klapisch tells you how Phil Hughes has become the 8th inning wonder: Mariano Rivera's cutter. This can only help Hughes as he transitions back to starter next season as Hughes' biggest problem seemed to be the lack of a third pitch.
  
• IIATMS breaks down "The Amazing Phil Hughes" even further. I have to admit that some of that goes way over my head, but it's really interesting the amount of statistical analysis there is out there.
• New York Magazine does a Yankee playoff preview of Phil Hughes and correctly points out he's the last man to win a playoff game for the Yankees (image from that article). There is one place I have to argue with NYMag about: "If a closer is critical to postseason success, then it stands to reason that the man responsible for getting him the ball is pretty important, too." Yes, that man is called your STARTING PITCHER!
  

I know this will drive certain people wild (I can think of a certain WFAN radio host...), but Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will most probably both be starters next season. Let's just hope that Hughes can carry over the success of his relief stint better than Joba has recently. They're both really young and their success as dominant relievers should excite you for their future as (hopefully) dominant starters.

What To Do With Alfredo Aceves and Brian Bruney?

The past two games saw the Yankees bring in Brian Bruney and Alfredo Aceves out of the bullpen. Those two appearances were not confidence-inspiring as both players looked like shells of their former selves. So what happened with these two? They may both be injured and hiding injuries knowing that when they recover, they may not have a job. They may both have been flukes and have settled into their normal play. Or maybe it's something else.

Let's first look at Alfredo Aceves. "Ace" pitched 30 innings last season and finished with a 2.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.167. Inexplicably, the Yankees left him off the opening day roster and let him toil in the minors until the beginning of May. Then, in his first appearance of the season on May 4th against Boston, they threw him for 70 pitches in a relief appearance. From there the Yankees used him in almost ever role: long reliever, middle relief, righty specialist, set-up man, mop-up man, even closer for a game. Since his first outing he had compiled a 1.77 ERA in 20 games, giving up less than a baserunner an inning in 35.2 innings and holding opponents to a .589 OPS against.

And then, on July 9th, they decided to give him a spot start against Minnesota. He wouldn't pitch again until July 18th and since hasn't been the same pitcher. Since they made him a starter for a day, his ERA has ballooned to 5.89 in 36.2 innings with opponents posting a .713 OPS against.

For the season Ace is 10-1 with a 3.87 ERA, 1.070 WHIP with 1 blown save, 1 save, and 5 holds. Clearly, he has not been the same pitcher since his spot start. He had complained of arm troubles and may be trying to hide that from the Yankees. Remember, Aceves is a Mexican League find, one year removed from not even being a Major Leaguer, one year removed from having all kinds of things thrown at him while he was on the field. He knows this could be his one shot and may be trying to pitch through pain to keep a spot on the Yankees.

But maybe the problem is that the Yankees have used him in so many different ways. Below are the charts from Baseball-Reference detailing his days of rest between pitching and the situations in which he's been used.

Days of Rest

0	1	2	3	4	5	7
7	3	11	6	3	5	1

Inning/Score Appearance Matrix

Inn	<-4	-4	-3	-2	-1	tie	1	2	3	4	>4	Total
4-				1	1	2	1	2				7
5		2		1	1	1			2			7
6	1	1		1	3			3	1			10
7			1	1		1					1	4
8					1		1	2				4
9	1			1		1					1	4
10+						3						3
Total	2	3	1	5	6	8	2	7	3	0	2	39

As you can see, there's no consistency. Was Watching talks about the spot start that ruined Alfredo Aceves. Peter Abraham talks about how Aceves is working through injuries. Mark Feinsand points out that Aceves disappeared for more than a week in the Yankees bullpen before last night and tries to page him. Maybe the key for Aceves is being given a role (I think that 6th or 7th inning righty out of the 'pen would good for him) and they need to stick with it.

Brian Bruney faces no such troubles. Besides two appearances early in blowouts, he's made all of his bullpen trots in the 7th inning or later. Bruney got hit hard in his first appearance but then settled down after that to be the Yankees most reliable set-up man in April. After that first start, he compiled a 1.17 ERA in 8 games, striking out 12 in 7.2 innings while walking no one and allowing only 2 hits through April 21st. Opponents had a .080/.080/.120 line against him.

Then he went on the disabled list for more than a month, came back, made one appearance, and went back on the DL for almost another month. Yankees fans were pretty sure the reason they couldn't beat Boston early on was that Bruney wasn't in their 'pen.

That really wasn't the case. Whether it was reverting back to his norms or the fact he may still be trying to pitch through injury, Bruney has not been the same pitcher since. In 31 games since coming back, he's pitched in 31 games to a 4.85 ERA, given up 32 hits in 26 innings, walking 20 and only striking out 19. His opponents have a .302/.414/.528 line against him. And that was with a 0.87 ERA in August!

Bruney has fallen far from the most reliable reliever in the bullpen. River Avenue Blues thinks that there's little chance Bruney makes the postseason roster, especially if the team only carries 10 pitchers. I don't disagree with that either; at this point, I don't think you can rely on Brian Bruney in any big spot (although sometimes Girardi seems to think to the contrary).

Blown Save Magnet

Last year I was at the Indians game where Joba Chamberlain blew a save. It was the only blown save of his career.

Last night I was at the Rays game where Phil Hughes blew a save. It was the only blown save of his career.

At least last night they won it in a walk-off (Joba's surrendered home run to David Dellucci last year proved to be the game winner), but that's pretty bad luck for me with the set-up men.

Let's not panic, though. It was only the fourth time in 34 relief appearances that Hughes has surrendered a run, and only the second home run. Hughes had gone 12.1 innings without giving up a run up until that point. He also recovered and got the dangerous Ben Zobrist to bounce into a double play to preserve the tie.

Blown saves happen...it just seems to happen to me a lot more. That, my friends, is a bunch of BS--pun intended

Orioles Closers Can't Get Out The Yankees

After watching the Yankees tattoo Orioles new closer Jim Johnson (right) for 5 runs without recording an out today, I was thinking about all the Orioles closers in my lifetime who have faced the Yankees...and how NONE of them could ever get the Yankees out. So I tweeted:

@NoYoureATowel: I cannot remember an Orioles RP who was able to get Yankees out in my lifetime. It's really unbelievable what they've done against them.

At the exact same time, Yankees beat reporter for the New York Times, Tyler Kepner tweeted:

@TylerKepner: Who was the last good Orioles relief pitcher? Sammy Stewart? Year after year after year the Yankees just destroy their bullpen.

Well great minds think alike. The Baltimore closers really have been bad against the Yankees recently. Chris Ray is no longer the Orioles' closer and he still can't get out Yankees this year with an insane .609/.625/1.261 line this year with a 37.12 ERA and 5.625 WHIP. And, yes, I checked that line twice...it is an OPS against of 1.886. Jeez.

Here's a look back at the rest of the O's closers vs. the Yankees for a decade:

• 2008 - George Sherill - .375/.524/.563 against. 16.20 ERA, 3.300 WHIP

• 2007 - Chris Ray - .294/.429/.471 against. 11.25 ERA, 2.000 WHIP

• 2006 - Chris Ray - .296/.406/.630 against. 4.05 ERA, 1.950 WHIP

• 2005 - B.J. Ryan - .273/.400/.364 against. 6.23 ERA, 1.731 WHIP

• 2004 - Jorge Julio - .300/.464/.600 against. 7.20 ERA, 2.600 WHIP

• 2003 - Jorge Julio -.318/.444/.591 against. 6.75 ERA, 2.250 WHIP

• 2002 - Jorge Julio - .111/.167/.148 against. 0.00 ERA, 0.600 WHIP

• 2001 - Buddy Groom - .344/.344/.541 against. 6.43 ERA, 1.571 WHIP

• 2000 - Mike Timlin - .471/.500/.824 against. 14.73 ERA, 2.455 WHIP

• 1999 - Mike Timlin - .100/.182/.400 against. 2.70 ERA, 0.600 WHIP

• 1998 - Armando Benitez - 1.000/1.000/4.000 against. INF ERA, INF WHIP (that's right, he got no one out)

That's two good seasons in there and some ridiculous stinkers. Orioles closers really are AWFUL against the Yankees. The Yankees have dominated the Orioles the past decade, but part of the reason has to be how they've manhandled the back end of their bullpens.