Is There a Free Agent Market For Cliff Lee?

One of the biggest off-season moves of this past winter was the Seattle Mariners acquisition of Cliff Lee from the Philadelphia Phillies. With one year left on his contract, Lee was deemed expendable by a Philadelphia team that didn’t think they could resign him once his contract was up. The Mariners had dreams of pairing Felix Hernandez and Lee together for one season and seeing what they could do in the spacious confines of Safeco Field.

Well, it may only be one year that they have together. Lee’s agent, Darek Braunecker, told ESPN’s Buster Olney that Lee will be testing the free agent waters in five months. With Josh Beckett locked up, Brandon Webb injured and Javier Vazquez having a rough go of it in the Bronx, Lee is definitely the cream of the free agent pitching crop.

But what type of market awaits Lee? Which teams will be involved in the bidding? While 5 years ago, Cliff Lee would be looking at a huge contract deal, in 2010 with a depressed economy, sagging attendance in some parks, and teams looking to be more fiscally responsible, it seems like Lee’s prospects are drying up in certain areas. So will Lee get a CC Sabathia-type contract or will he be left disappointed after the off-season is over? Let’s take a look at the possibilities (with thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts on the salaries):

Seattle Mariners: The Mariners traded away some of their best prospects to get Cliff Lee so it would make sense they would keep him, right? Well some of thought behind acquiring Lee was that they would keep him for a year and try to recoup the prospect loss in draft pick compensation for Lee signing elsewhere (Lee should be a Type A free agent). And since the Mariners are yet to approach Lee about a contract, that draft pick grab may be the path they are going to head down. If Lee has a huge season in Seattle, though, the Mariners will have a lot of incentive to resign him. If the team struggles, however, they may have to trade him and The News Tribune says they should think about doing that now, rather than later. The Seattle P-I says that the Mariners haven't really been showing much love Lee's way (picture to the right from that article).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: It’s unlikely that they will be involved. They let Francisco Rodriguez, Chone Figgins, Vladamir Guerrero and John Lackey walk in recent years and saw their payroll go up to over $121 million. This is a team that will be paying $11 million to Gary Matthews Jr. in 2011…and he won’t even be on the team. So it’s doubtful they’ll be involved.

Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers: The Arkansas native is probably not heading to Atlanta, Florida or Tampa Bay. The Braves have Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson signed through 2012 and have wiped almost $20 million off their payroll in the past two years. Florida and Tampa could use the pitching but both are unlikely to spend what it takes to get Lee especially with their own free agents looming on the horizon. The Texas Rangers would have been a good place for Lee to land (real need for pitching), but they haven’t spent a large amount of money in a while and a Sports Business Journal report from last Monday says that Major League Baseball may be seizing the Rangers franchise and setting up a court battle in Bankruptcy Court which would make sure that Lee doesn’t end up in Arlington.

St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers: Both National League Central contenders could use the pitching but with their star first basemen (Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder) approaching free agency and Ryan Howard setting the bar for slugging first basemen really high, the teams have other paydays to think about before they would bid on Lee. The Cardinals would be a nice fit for Lee (imagine Lee, Carpenter and Wainwright at the top of a rotation) but the 2010 Matt Holliday signing makes it even more unlikely that deal would get done. And the Phillies already traded Lee as the New York Daily News writes (and provides the picture to the right) because they thought he would become too expensive and now have given extensions to Howard and Joe Blanton. So Lee isn’t coming back to The City of Brotherly Love.

Chicago Cubs and White Sox: The Cubs represent an intriguing possibility. Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly have their contracts come off the books after this season freeing up $25 million in payroll. And if the team underachieves again this year, management may want to try to bring in some new blood to turn the ship around—Lee could represent that change. But with albatross of contracts in Alfonso Soriano ($18 M a year through 2014) and Carlos Zambrano (at least $40.875 M left on his contract after this season), the Cubs may be hesitant to throw $100 million at Lee. The cross-town White Sox are intriguing as well but with Jake Peavy and Mark Buehrle signed for big money past this season, and Paul Konerko a free agent, it’s doubtful the White Sox will spend more on pitching. But if some of their division rivals get involved, look for the White Sox to do the same.

The National League West: I think we can almost rule the entire NL West out. The Padres won’t spend enough and the Giants need to spend their money on hitting with their starting pitching being well-stocked. The Diamondbacks and Rockies have shown an unwillingness to spend that type of long-term money on a player in recent years. The one possibility is the Dodgers, though their murky ownership situation means they won’t be dolling out any large contracts in the near future. If they are sold before free agency hits, they could be a player, but that seems highly doubtful at the moment.

Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros: Just one big no. They all don’t spend enough to invest that type of money in Lee. And with the percentage of their payroll he would take up, I don’t think it’s a prudent investment for them to do so. And, as the picture on the right from About.com shows, Lee was already a member of The Tribe (the non-Jewish one) at one point.

New York Mets: Another intriguing possibility, but I highly doubt it. Pairing Johan Santana and Lee would be like recreating their duo of lefties Mike Hampton and Al Leiter. The problem is that management has the recent memory of lefties Oliver Perez and Tom Glavine. Fred Wilpon has shown a wiliness to open the bank account, but with Santana signed through 2013 (with a club option for ’14) and Perez signed through 2011, it may seem unlikely. But don’t rule them out. With Perez and Beltran both hitting the free agent market at the end of 2011, the Mets will be freeing up quite a bit of payroll. It may make sense to invest in Lee when their division rivals did not.

Baltimore Orioles: As odd a suggestion they may seem, I wouldn’t rule the O’s out just yet. They have a good young team (despite their struggles so far in 2010) and with Kevin Millwood coming off the payroll after this year, the team has the payroll flexibility and the need for a veteran pitcher. Peter Angelos hasn’t shown a willingness to invest in starting pitching (all the way back to when he let Mike Mussina leave to join the rival Yankees) and the Orioles have never had a large payroll, but if they plan to contend going forward, this may be a good way to start.

Boston Red Sox: This seemed to be a perfect destination before last off-season played out. In that off-season the Red Sox signed John Lackey to a 5-year, $82.5 M deal and negotiated an extension with Josh Beckett that will pay him $68 M through 2014 (and Jon Lester is also signed through 2014). The one way this could work is because of salaries coming off the books for the Red Sox: David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, and Mike Lowell in 2010, and J.D. Drew, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron in 2011. But the one constant in all those free agents is that they play on the offensive side of the ball and the Red Sox will want to spend their money there.

Detroit Tigers: I expect the Tigers to be in the bidding for Cliff Lee. This is a team that seems to have things figured out on offense around their first baseman, Miguel Cabrera and would set up quite a pitching duo at the top with Justin Verlander and Lee. If Magglio Ordonez does not have his option kick in, he joins Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson (who they are paying $9.6 M in 2010 to play for the Marlins), Dontrelle Willis, Johnny Damon, and Brandon Inge as high-salaried free agents coming off the books after 2010. That is plenty of money to go out and sign a star like Cliff Lee to put atop the Tigers rotation.

New York Yankees: As always, the Yankees represent a wild card in this situation. They will first have to worry about their own free agents Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Then they will have to figure out if they want to invest more money on starting pitching after their big money purchases of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. But after that’s all said and done, I see the Yankees getting involved in the Cliff Lee bidding. The Yankees have $11.5 M coming off the books because of Javier Vazquez and may have another $11.75 if Andy Pettitte retires. They saw what Lee can do in the 2009 playoffs (4-0, 1.56 ERA, 5.50 SO to BB ratio, zero home runs) and the World Series where Lee dominated the Yankees (2-0, 2.81 ERA). And Lee is a lefthanded starter in a park that highly favors them and turning 32 next year, he seems like a good candidate to replace Pettitte on the roster. The Yankees top 4 of Sabathia, Burnett, Lee and Phil Hughes would be together through at least 2013 and would match the top 4 of any staff in the Majors. I don't think that Brian Cashman would pay double for Lee by trading for him at the deadline and then giving him a huge deal (he's shown precedence in not doing this in the Santana, Halladay and Sabathia situations), but if he hits free agency without an extension, don’t rule out the Yankees.

As you can see, there are a lot of interesting names out there for Lee…but not a lot that can spend money. Now, this all assumes that Lee isn’t traded before the deadline or that he doesn’t reach a contract extension with the Mariners. Both are possibilities. But if he hits the free agent market, Lee will be the number one player on there and quite a few teams should be in the bidding for Lee. But whether that market truly develops is yet to be seen.