Belated Reaction To Yankees' Second Walkoff Win Of The Season

Photo Credit: New York Daily News

Last night, the Yankees posted their second walk-off win this season, beating the Blue Jays 5-4 in the bottom of the 9th inning.  Having still not fully recovered from their six-game losing streak, and after losing the first game of the Toronto series badly on Monday night, this impressive comeback (they were down 4-1 entering the bottom of the 8th) came at the perfect time.

Given the importance of this win, I thought I would share a few (admittedly belated) thoughts...

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Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010 Pt 2

Back in December we took a trip in the time machine back to last off-season and looked at how close the Yankees came to the "Worst Case Scenario" series we did last year. We started with Part 1 and the starting lineup. Well let's continue that with theme today with Part 2, which was the starting pitching staff. By then I realized that non-Yankee fans were taking a lot of joy in my scenarios but it didn't stop me from looking at what would go horribly wrong if the pitching staff fell apart. Let's see how close we got to that scenario:

AJ Burnett was a "black eye" for the Yankees (FanHouse)

CC Sabathia
What I said worst-case would look like: "Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series...According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys."

What actually happened: Sabathia's arm and body held up another year's grind, starting an AL-leading 34 games, pitching 237.2 innings, and winning a Major League-leading 21 games. Sabathia was an All-Star, came in third in the Cy Young voting, and 13th in the MVP voting. He pitched about as well during the regular season as he did in his first year in Pinstripes (with less strikeouts but more groundballs). The issue for CC was when he hit the playoffs. After being stellar in 2009, he was so-so to bad in 2010. He started three times but only pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up a whopping 22 hits and 10 earned runs, striking out 15 but walking 7, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch, and being charged with a balk. Sabathia was a huge reason the Yankees made the playoffs (from August 7th-September 2nd he won every time he started), but for them to win the World Series in 2011, they need him to carry it through to the playoffs.

A.J. Burnett

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Cliff Lee's Wife Unhappy With Yankees Fans, Yankees, Yanks

Cliff Lee's wife, Kristen Lee, is unhappy with how she was treated at Yankee Stadium during the ALCS.  Apparently, several Yankees fans were extremely rude towards her.  Allegations involving spitting, throwing cups of beer, and shouting obscenities have been made.

"The fans did not do good things in my heart," Kristen Lee said, according to the newspaper. "When people are staring at you, and saying horrible things, it's hard not to take it personal."

GIF credit: Barstool Sports

The USA Today reports that Ms. Lee sat in the visitor's section and suggests that this may have been the Rangers' first negotiating tactic as Texas tries to woo Lee from the Yankees this offseason.

Barstool Sports Boston thinks that Kristen's distaste for Yankees fans and New York in general will torpedo the Yankees' chances of signing Lee.  Naturally, Barstool concludes with: "So if Kristin Lee really wants to get payback like I think she does we’re the only option.  Looks like thing just went from bad to worse for Yankee fans.  Cue the duckboats indeed!"

This is such a non-story.  I blame the media.  It's a pretty ridiculous theory to suggest that the Yankees are out of the running because Kristen Lee had an unpleasant experience in Game 3 of the ALCS.

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 6

For the past history of tonight's match-up between Phil Hughes and Colby Lewis, check out the post from Game 2. Of course, what happened in Game 2 isn't included in those numbers, but they should give you a good sense of the two pitchers' history with the Yankees. As you may remember from Game 2, Lewis pitched pretty well (only two runs given up despite 6 hits and 3 walks in 5.2 innings) and Hughes got bombed. ESPN's Katie Sharp goes into greater detail on the match-up and figures out that the breaking point between the two performances occurred at two-strikes.

Phil Hughes looks focused as tonight as he tries to stave off elimination (LoHud)

In Game 2, Hughes struggled to finish off hitters when getting to two strikes, as the Rangers went 5-for-11 (.455), including four extra base hits, in two-strike counts. Hughes also left his pitches up, and the Rangers capitalized, going 6-for-8 (.750) on pitches in the upper third of the zone and above. 

This has been an issue for many of the Yankee pitchers. They have--for the most part--been OK at getting ahead in the count, but the Rangers have been able to foul off a lot of two-strike pitches. CC Sabathia had this trouble with the Rangers on Wednesday as many of the hitters battled him even with two strikes. Hughes' key tonight is finding a way to put the Rangers hitters away.

One key for Lewis in Game 2 was his use of the curveball as an out pitch, as the Yankees went 0-for-4 against the hook. Lewis was also effective in getting Yankee hitters to chase pitches, with four of his six total strikeouts coming on pitches out of the zone.

Again, the issues for the Yankees came with two strikes. It will be even more important to resist the temptation to chase pitches tonight, as free-swinging Marcus Thames will be replacing Mark Teixeira's bat in the line-up and another free-swinger--Robinson Cano--will be moving up in the lineup to the third slot. The Yankees ability to get hits off of Lewis with runners on and to get to the Rangers bullpen early will be a key to this game.

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 1

The beginning of the American League Championship Series is now upon us so let's look at the pitching match-ups for Game 1:

CC Sabathia vs. the Rangers hitters (including playoffs):

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GDP
Ian Kinsler	10	9	2	0	0	2	4	1	0	.222	.300	.889	1.189	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Young	40	38	12	4	0	0	5	1	8	.316	.325	.421	.746	0	1	0	0	2
Vladimir Guerrero	25	23	5	2	0	1	3	1	4	.217	.240	.435	.675	0	1	1	0	0
Esteban German	25	23	6	0	0	1	3	0	5	.261	.250	.391	.641	1	1	0	0	0
Josh Hamilton	13	10	1	1	0	0	0	3	4	.100	.308	.200	.508	0	0	0	0	0
Andres Blanco	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0	0	1
Jeff Francoeur	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	1	3	.167	.231	.167	.397	0	0	1	0	0
Julio Borbon	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.333	.000	.333	0	0	0	1	0
David Murphy	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.167	.167	.167	.333	0	0	0	0	0
Jorge Cantu	12	12	1	1	0	0	0	0	4	.083	.083	.167	.250	0	0	0	0	0
Bengie Molina	21	19	1	0	0	0	1	1	4	.053	.143	.053	.195	0	0	0	1	0
Elvis Andrus	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
Nelson Cruz	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
Total	180	166	32	8	0	4	17	8	39	.193	.235	.313	.548	1	3	2	2	3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/15/2010.

There's good news and there's bad news for the Yankees. The bad news is that Ian Kinsler and Michael Young have hit well against Sabathia in his career (Kinsler has only managed two hits--but they both left the park). The good news is that  everyone else has struggled. Vladamir Guerrero is the one player other than Kinsler to be on the roster and have gone deep against Sabathia (Esteban German is expected to be replaced by a pitcher) and represents the only postseason experience against the Yankees ace (6 PAs in last year's ALCS). After that it's pretty bleak including a collective 4 for 41 (with 15 Ks) against Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francouer, and Josh Hamilton.

Sabathia only faced the Rangers one time in 2010 and won a rain-shortened, 6-inning affair 5-1 behind 6 innings of 3-hit, one-run ball, including 9 strikeouts and no walks. The opposing pitcher that day was none other than C.J. Wilson. In Sabathia's career against the Texas Rangers, he's 8-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 14 starts (86 innings), giving up 89 hits, 33 walks, and striking out 77. He is 4-2 with a 4.71 ERA in 6 starts lifetime pitching in Texas. Overall Sabathia did not pitch great in Game 1 of the ALDS against Minnesota but still came away with the win, moving him to 4-1 in 6 postseason starts as a Yankee. Nothing on this match-up, but for a really interesting look at Sabathia's life, check out this article in USA Today by Bob Nightengale.

C.J. Wilson vs. the Yankees hitters:

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Yankees will pitch AJ Burnett in ALCS

MLB.com reported last night that the Yankees will use AJ Burnett in the ALCS, regardless of whether they face the Rangers or the Rays.

Photo courtesy of the NY Post.

Burnett, as we all know, had a very poor season in 2010.  The numbers tell most of the story: AJ went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA over 186.2 innings.  He also compiled a 1.51 WHIP, a 9.8 H/9, and a 1.2 HR/9 (those last two stats are the highest of his career).  In fact, Burnett's season was so bad that it could be the worst season of any Yankees pitcher.  Ever.  No pitcher had ever thrown at least 180 innings with an ERA that high.  At the very least, AJ's performance was the worst value in pro sports. So it made sense that the Yankees left him off their ALDS roster, right?  Right.

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The Yankee Clipper: Back-and-Forth Game 1 Goes to the Yanks

Deep breath. After two dominant pitching performances to start out the playoff day by Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, the Yankees and Twins played a see-saw, back-and-forth affair last night under the stars at Target Field. But while Francisco Liriano looked early like he'd join Halladay and Lee as number 1 starters who dominated, the Yankees late rally toppled the Twinkies once again. A few notes:

Maybe not "ever" but last night's Tex Message was exciting

1. The Grandy Man Can. Sometimes, you need to throw out the book and Joe Girardi (the man who keeps the book with him at all times) did just that last night starting Curtis Granderson against Liriano. Granderson--who couldn't hit lefties in general for most of the season--came into the game 4 for 22 against the lefty Liriano with 12 strikeouts. And in the second inning, with two on and two out, those struggles reared their ugly heads again when Granderson left the runners stranded. That was the first of 10 consecutive batters that Liriano retired including a Granderson strikeout in the fifth. So with two on and two out and the same Liriano on the mound, some wondered whether Joe Girardi may go to the bench and pinch hit Austin Kearns who has had success in limited time against Liriano. But Girardi stuck with Granderson who hit the ball about as far as you can without hitting it out and his triple was the biggest hit of the game. Granderson deserves a lot of credit for going to Kevin Long and making sure he worked on his swing and the dividends have paid off immensely. Ben Shpigel of the New York Times calls Long the Yankees "Most Valuable Repairman", Brien@IIATMS breaks down the 6th inning, and the New York Post's Joel Sherman said that Granderson went from being a "bad idea" in mid-August to an October hero.
2. Tex Message Received. As LoHud's Chad Jennings wrote, the other place that Girardi went against most people's instinct was when he stuck with Mark Teixeira struggled through the first two months. Every day he wrote his name into the lineup in the number three hole. And last night's majestic shot into the October sky again showed us that despite his slow starts, Teixeira will eventually come around and contribute. An earlier double, though, was just as big as it snapped Liriano's streak of 10-in-a-row retired and set the table for that big 6th inning. Last season, Tex hit a line drive in Game 2 of the ALDS that everyone at Yankee Stadium was yelling "get up, get up" so it would be a home run--and it was. Last night, Tex hit a high fly ball that everyone yelling "stay fair, stay fair" (including Joe Girardi who the cameras caught saying it with the rest of the fans)--and it did. Tex's second game-winning home run against the Twins in two years and off the Jesse Crain which TBS replays right before the home run showed Teixeira hitting a blast earlier this year against at Yankee Stadium. According to ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews, Tex did this all with a cortisone shot in his ailing wrist. Teixeira has played through pain much of the second half of the season and his Tex MSG got the Yankees Game 1 of the series.
3. The Great Mariano.

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The Yankees Will Have to Go Without Marte and Aceves in 2010

Two important members of the 2009 World Series Championship team will not be back for the 2010 team. From the New York Daily News' Peter Botte:

Hughes will have his next start skipped due to innings limits (LoHud)

Phil Hughes will be skipped one start in the Yankees rotation to limit his innings, Joe Girardi said before Wednesday's series finale against Baltimore. Dustin Moseley will start Sunday in Texas, and Hughes will return to the rotation next Wednesday in Tampa.

Also, Girardi said Alfredo Aceves (back) will not return this season, and Damaso Marte (shoulder) will "probably not" be back in 2010.

The first bit of news is not surprising. Hughes is currently on pace for about 181 regular season innings which would probably be too many for him if he was also asked to start in the playoffs. Although Hughes almost certainly slots in as a start in the playoffs, it probably wouldn't hurt to give his arm some rest. Since they first skipped a start for Hughes in late June after Hughes was 10-1, Hughes is 6-6 in 13 starts (73 innings) since with a 5.55 ERA, 15 HR allowed and an .833 OPS against. Although the track record for skipping Hughes' starts hasn't been great, the results he's put up since June haven't been consistently stellar either so this makes a ton of sense.

The Aceves and Marte news is not great for the Yankees, though they seemed to be resigned to move on without them before this news came down today. Marte has not been a great regular season pitcher for the Yankees but his pitching in the playoffs last year was a big reason they won the World Series (5.2 innings of no-hit ball in the ALCS and World Series). Amazingly, Marte pitched in 30 games for the Yankees in 2010 (the last being on July 7th) which is tied with CC Sabathia for the 4th most on the team behind Joba Chamberlain (60 games), Mariano Rivera (52), David Robertson (52), and Boone Logan (39). The last guy on that list, Logan, is the reason the Yankees can probably be OK with Marte being out. Logan has stepped up in a big way to solidify the lefty specialist role in the bullpen (lefties hitting .194 vs. Logan with one XBH in 70 PAs).

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Adding Another to the Team (and a few links)

We're not waiting until September 1st to expand our rosters here at NYaT. I'm happy to announce our newest permanent blogger (and our new Official Mets Blogger), Elissa Glucksman. E recently guest blogged about 5 reasons the Mets could make the playoffs in 2011 and before that had previewed Citi Field 2.0 for NYaT. Elissa even participated in a triathlon with former Mets manager, Bobby Valentine, as a partner. We're excited to see what else she has in store for us (there is some talk of Sarah and Elissa doing a blog series of sports from the feminine point of view). Please join me in welcoming Elissa to the NYaT team.

Omar Minaya will feel the wrath of new blogger, Elissa (NYDN)

Now for a few links:

• Someone else is keeping track of that whole CC Sabathia opt-out (as well as Joe Girardi's contract situation): Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues. Moshe Mandel of TYU tells us why Girardi isn't going anyplace.
• SI's Joe Posnanski nails arm injuries and pitching prospects in this great blog post. Then The Common Man at The Platoon Advantage takes down Rob Dibble.
• NoMass scores another great interview (this time with Yankees' SVP, Mark Newman) and talks about the Yankees farm system. Then Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus writes "just add [Brett Marshall] to the long list of Yankee pitching prospects who have taken a step in the right direction." I like the sound of that.
• Last week Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus handicapped the AL MVP race and the NL MVP race. It will be a close one.
• Rebecca of This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes on Kerry Wood. Sam Borden of LoHud on Tiger Woods and Derek Jeter. Aaron Gleeman of HardballTalk on the Yankees' "phantom disabled list". FanGraphs' Dave Cameron on the Minnesota Twins. Flip Flop Fly Ball on the many Yankees logos. Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues on HOPE week.
• The Big Lead on why Tony LaRussa is an idiot. Wall Street Journal's Brian Costa on why Ivan (Nova) is anything but terrible. ESPN's Jayson Stark with everything you would want to know about Roy Oswalt's night in left field.
• Eastbound and Down Season 2 (I can't wait)

Javier Vazquez is officially below replacement level according to FanGraphs (H/T Jay). More later.

Which 1995-2010 Yankees Pitcher Would You Start in Game 7?

It's the World Series, Game 7, season on the line. You have a chance of choosing any Yankee pitcher from 1995-2010 and only have his resume on the Yankees to choose from. You have some great names on there: Coney, Key, El Duque, The Rocket, Andy, CC, etc. But you need to throw one guy out there for one very important game. I've been debating this all morning at work and over Twitter, but now it's time to put it out there on the blog: who would you take? Here are the candidates:

Sabathia dominated the Angels in the ALCS (USA Today)

CC Sabathia (B-R link)

It's a small sample size, but this may be my pick. Very few (if any) Yankee pitchers dominated a whole playoffs over three series. Overall he was 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 32 and walking only 9. He dominated in the ALDS and ALCS and was very good in the World Series (though his record was 0-1). Sabathia's ALCS is what really puts him on this list as he absolutely dominated the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA, striking out 12, limiting the Angels to a .436 OPS against and going 8 innings in both his outings. Remember, though, that Sabathia came into last season with a reputation as a guy who couldn't cut it in October and while we're only going on their New York totals, this weighs quite heavily in a lot of people's minds. CC's total Win Probability Added (WPA) was 0.967 for the 2009 playoffs while FanGraphs clocks his FIP at 3.59 and his xFIP at 3.36.

From Twitter: @NYYEric: depends on if we get to choose the player as he was in that timeframe but I go with CC. (Andy close second)

Andy Pettitte (B-R link)

Certainly the sentimental pick of many (he was the runaway winner in my unofficial Twitter poll), but I'm wondering if he truly is the best pick. He's won the most series clinching games in history, but he also had his share of duds. In 11 ALDS series, Pettitte is 5-3 in 79.2 innings with a 3.73 ERA. In 7 ALCS series, he's 7-1 in 72.1 innings with a 3.73 ERA (and a 2001 ALCS MVP award). In 8 World Series, he's 5-4 in 77.2 innings with a 4.06 ERA. It all seems good, but there were some starts in there where he didn't even give his team a chance. His 1996 ALCS Game 5 and World Series Game 5 were great starts, but his World Series Game 2 in which he lasted only 2.1 innings and gave up 7 runs was not. In 1998, Pettitte was grat in the ALDS and World Series but he got bombed for 4 home runs in Game 3 of the ALCS. 1999 he breezed through the ALDS and ALCS but once again got bombed by Atlanta in the World Series. The problem was that when Pettitte really struggled (1997 ALDS, 2001 World Series, 2002 ALDS), the Yankees lost and he didn't even give them a chance to win. So would you like to have someone who keeps you in every game or one who looks like A.J. Burnett? Tough call. But overall, Pettitte was dominant with a 2.253 WPA in his first run of postseason stint in Pinstripes and a 0.833 WPA after he's returned from Houston. His 2009 postseason run where he won every single clinching game may have sealed this one for Pettitte in many people's minds.

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Will CC Sabathia Opt Out After 2011?

On a slow Friday in New York, I was perusing the Yankees' page of Cot's Baseball Contracts, a wonderful resource for player-by-player and team-by-team contract information. When I landed on their second-highest paid player, CC Sabathia, I was sort of surprised to see this bullet point:

It's possible CC may not wear Pinstripes after 2011 (ESPN)

• Sabathia may opt of of deal after 2011 season. 

I wasn't shocked because I didn't know about it, but, frankly, because I don't remember it being mentioned since Sabathia signed his big contract back in December of 2008. In fact, I forgot how important that opt-out clause was to Sabathia's contract being signed. According to Tim Brown and Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports (whose article was titled "Opt-out clause key to Sabathia going to Yankees"):

The deal, according to a source close to negotiations, gives Sabathia the right to opt out of the contract after the first three years, by which time he will have been paid $69 million. Sabathia appreciated the clause because it satisfied concerns he had about living in New York and the impact it might have on his wife and three children.

He will make his opt-out decision after the 2011 season with four years and $92 million remaining on the deal, at which time he could renegotiate, leave or stay.

Yahoo! Sports wasn't the only one; New York Daily News and almost every other news outlet mentioned the opt-out if not in the title of their article, then at least in the body. Since then, not much has been said about this opt-out clause. I searched on Google News for any mention of "Sabathia" and "opt-out" in the past year and there were 21 results, more than half of which seem to be about either A.J. Burnett or Alex Rodriguez opting out. So this is not a much-discussed topic to say the least. But should it be? Should we just assume that the hefty lefty and his family are happy in New York and they are going to stay? Or will CC Sabathia be hitting the open market at the end of next season at the age of 31?

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Quick Hits: FanGraphs Event, Yankee Bullpen, Mets, Cervelli, CC, Granderson, and Other Baseball Thoughts

It's time to play some catch-up on the blog. A little of a lot here on a Monday. Some quick hits for you:

- The FanGraphs Live event last Saturday in Manhattan was awesome. I thoroughly enjoyed the conference and the panels were all extremely engaging. Amanda Rykoff has a great review of the whole event at The OCD Chick, and Dave Cameron and Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs both have great recaps. A few observations/conclusions from the panel:

The FanGraphs live event was awesome

• I may be a nerd (Amanda did label this a "mini-dorkapalooza")
• Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues dislikes Francisco Cervelli as much on Twitter as he does in real life (and Jay Jaffe of Pinstriped Bible dishes out some dislike as well)
• Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues argues that the strength of the AL East pushes each team to get better
• Reporting on Twitter discourages analysis and makes it more about a personal brand
• The Wall Street Journal has a great formula for their sports section: smart, funny and analytical
• The game story is slowly leaving the papers (and with it, the need for the box score as well as Tim Kurkjian wrote on ESPN)
• Bloomberg Sports has an awesome fantasy sports tool that can even show video of Jeff Francouer drawing multiple walks
• Statistics are now for a wider audience than just nerds (though Tim Marchman of SI looks at the problems with defensive stats)
• The biggest myth in sports (according to one panelists) is that the pitcher stopping his windup mid-motion has led to a lot of injuries 
• I now own a FanGraphs t-shirt
• "Accept randomness"
• It was nice to finally meet in person people like Ben and Amanda who were, until now, just Twitter avatars and bylines on blog posts. This type of thing should occur more often.

- Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked today (re: the Yankees bullpen): "Do you believe in this group?" At one point the answer would most certainly have been no, but Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan and Kerry Wood have joined together to form a nice "Bridge to Mariano". The Yankees bullpen in August is 1-1 (the one loss came from Mariano Rivera) with a 1.02 ERA in 35.1 innings and has a WHIP of 0.991. Since July 2nd, they've only allowed 16% of inherited runners to score (which was a bugaboo for a while with this team as they were at 30% at that point). With Andy Pettitte coming back (forcing Dustin Moseley back to the bullpen), and Alfredo Aceves and Damaso Marte on the mend, this is looking like a pretty good group. And despite his latest glitch, Mariano Rivera is pretty great/probably the greatest ever. The Yankees are 62-0 when leading after 8.

-CC Sabathia is getting less strikeouts as David Golebiewski of FanGraphs pointed out today and Dave Cameron pointed out last week. Here's my theory: from 2005 to 2010, Sabathia's thrown more innings than anyone in baseball. Maybe he's resting his arm a bit knowing he has plenty of years left to pitch in baseball. While strikeouts are the surest way to prevent outs, groundouts are usually a good way as well and they usually require less pitches. That's probably a good thing for someone who will have over 20,000 pitches in a 6-year span. Like Girardi told Chad Jennings of LoHud: "we don't want to wear the big guy down."

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The Yankee Clipper: Starting Pitching

I was all ready to write today's Yankee Clipper on the Yankees starting rotation but then this weekend happened. A.J. Burnett punched something and had to leave the game with cuts on his hand Saturday and then Sunday and Andy Pettitte left early yesterday with a groin strain that will keep him out at least the rest of the month. So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the status update I'll now do for their starters. But here we go into the starting rotation:

1. Andy Pettitte. Yesterday's game marked the first time that Pettitte didn't go 5 innings in a start this season and in those 18 starts, he's only given up more than 4 earned runs once (6 against the Rays in May). Pettitte came into yesterday 11-2 (league-leading .846 winning percentage) with a 2.70 ERA and I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that he's been the Yankees' most consistent starter so far this season. So then the starter that the Yankees have counted on so much this season (the team is 15-3 in games he starts) left early with a groin injury. Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman estimates that Pettitte will be out 4-5 weeks, but the injury expert, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, thinks that may be overly cautious and thinks that Pettitte will be back the second of August. Before the injury, Pettitte was on pace for 20 wins and had his lowest American League ERA since 1997--but he was also on pace to throw 205 innings for the first time since 2007. Yankees fans remember that in 2008 Pettitte had arm troubles so if there is one silver lining for the Yankees, it is that Pettitte will be well-rested down the stretch. But that is of little consolation to the Yankees who are without the AL All-Star Pettitte for a while now. Pettitte has been exceptionally good in 2010 at limiting the amount of hits against him and decreasing the amount of walks he issues, though the former may be somewhat due to luck--Pettitte's .274 BABIP is well-below his career .314 and his 3.97 FIP and 4.06 xFIP reflects that fact. But Pettitte has produced results so far for the Yankees. According to FanGraphs, some of it is due to his cut fastball and curveball being more effective than they've been in years and ditching the slider (which was a bad pitch for him in 2009). The Yankees must be pretty upset right now they didn't get Cliff Lee and they hope that Andy is Dandy for them again soon. If the Yankees can get Pettitte back by the second week in August and have him for the stretch drive, I think they'd take that. Pettitte is usually his best in the second half and the Yankees need the 2001 ALCS MVP to defend their World Series title. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.12 ERA, 25 K, .602 OPS against.
2. A.J. Burnett. If the Yankees hadn't been winning the past two years, you have to imagine that people would be getting a bit more upset with Burnett's performance in Pinstripes. Last year he had an up-and-down season where he dominated at times but led the league in walks and wild pitches showing that other times he was all over the place. The only thing that Burnett is consistent in is his inconsistency. 2010 started out well for Burnett but has seen him dip to a losing record, an ERA pushing 5, and a Major League worst 12 hit batters. He's allowed no earned runs in 5 starts but he's also allowed 6 or more earned runs 6 times. Through the end of May, Burnett was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Since, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has gone to the dark side as he's 1-6 with a 8.15 ERA and .965 OPS against in his past 8 starts. His last start ended early after his punching incident which he blamed on "falling" originally before being caught. I love the pies he brings and his swagger at times on the mound, but Burnett's lack of maturity at times is disheartening and his inability to compose himself is frustrating. Carroll writes about Burnett: "Burnett is certainly not the first pitcher to do something stupid. The meme of a pitcher hitting something with his pitching hand is so strong that it's a full scene in Bull Durham. Burnett cut his hands on a plexiglass lineup holder. Burnett is expected to be back for his next start, though there are some whispers that there could be a push-back if he doesn't make his throw day and show that the cuts won't be an issue." Not exactly what the Yankees were looking for from their #2 starter coming into the season. Burnett's problem is that when he's bad, he's really bad. In his wins, Burnett holds opposing hitters to a .191/.251/.231 line and in his losses it jumps to .363/.453/.701--meaning that in his losses, Burnett isn't even giving his team a good chance to win. Most disturbing for me about Burnett though is about in his results on the field where we've seen his K/9 drop from 9.56 in 2007 to 9.39 in 2006 to 8.48 in 2009 to only 6.71 this season. That's a big concern for the Yankees as Burnett's true value comes from his ability to finish guys off after he gets himself into jams. There is still some debate about whether this inability to gets misses with the bats are due to lost velocity or just not being able to locate the curveball as R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs suggested a month ago. But whatever is the culprit, this is not good news for the Yankees who are still on the hook for 3 more expensive years of Burnett after 2010. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.43 ERA, 20 K, 1.200 WHIP, .660 OPS against.

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