Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010 Pt 2

Back in December we took a trip in the time machine back to last off-season and looked at how close the Yankees came to the "Worst Case Scenario" series we did last year. We started with Part 1 and the starting lineup. Well let's continue that with theme today with Part 2, which was the starting pitching staff. By then I realized that non-Yankee fans were taking a lot of joy in my scenarios but it didn't stop me from looking at what would go horribly wrong if the pitching staff fell apart. Let's see how close we got to that scenario:

AJ Burnett was a "black eye" for the Yankees (FanHouse)

CC Sabathia
What I said worst-case would look like: "Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series...According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys."

What actually happened: Sabathia's arm and body held up another year's grind, starting an AL-leading 34 games, pitching 237.2 innings, and winning a Major League-leading 21 games. Sabathia was an All-Star, came in third in the Cy Young voting, and 13th in the MVP voting. He pitched about as well during the regular season as he did in his first year in Pinstripes (with less strikeouts but more groundballs). The issue for CC was when he hit the playoffs. After being stellar in 2009, he was so-so to bad in 2010. He started three times but only pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up a whopping 22 hits and 10 earned runs, striking out 15 but walking 7, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch, and being charged with a balk. Sabathia was a huge reason the Yankees made the playoffs (from August 7th-September 2nd he won every time he started), but for them to win the World Series in 2011, they need him to carry it through to the playoffs.

A.J. Burnett

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The Yankees Bullpen Since the All-Star Break

The Yankees bullpen--beset by bad luck, injuries and just inconsistent pitching--looked awful at the All-Star break. Sure Mariano Rivera was still "The Great Mariano", but the mythological "Bridge to Mariano" looked like it could collapse at any second. But when the All-Star break ended something clicked with the relievers and with the acquisition of Kerry Wood, the Yankees bullpen has looked great since then. Let's take a look at the relievers (and their workload since the Texas series started):

The Yankees "Bridge to Mariano" has gotten stronger since Break (NYDN)

Kerry Wood As a Yankee: 2-0, 6 holds, 0.44 ERA in 20.2 innings with 24 K (to 11 BB), .480 OPS against, 1.190 WPA (Win Probability Added according to Baseball-Reference).

Wood gave up a home run to Toronto's Aaron Hill in his second outing in Pinstripes and has not been scored on since. In fact, that's the only time a run has crossed the plate while Wood as he has inherited 8 runners and none of those have scored either. In September he's allowed 4 baserunners out of the 28 batters he's faced. Oh, and that home run he gave up to Hill was the only extra base hit he's given up in to the 83 batters he's faced as a Yankee. Recent workload (calculated since September 10th): 4 games, 14 batters faced, 50 pitches.

Boone Logan Since A-S Break: 1-0, 7 holds, 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings with 23 K (to 6 BB), .519 OPS against, 0.397 WPA.

The amazing part is that Logan gave up a run right after the All-Star break on a home-run and a run last night--but none in between, a streak that spanned 25 outings. If you take away those two outings as well, he's been good at not allowing inherited runners to score, only allowed 13% of his 15 to cross home. Logan's biggest problem has been when he hasn't been used against lefties (as shown last night) but as a lefty specialist, he's been deadly holding lefties to a .174/.269/.203 line with one extra base hit in 78 PAs. Recent workload: 4 games, 9 batters faced, 36 pitches.

David RobertsonSince A-S Break: 2-1, 8 holds, 1 save, 1.50 ERA in 24 innings with 31 K (to 12 BB), .575 OPS against, 1.253 WPA.

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The Yankees Will Have to Go Without Marte and Aceves in 2010

Two important members of the 2009 World Series Championship team will not be back for the 2010 team. From the New York Daily News' Peter Botte:

Hughes will have his next start skipped due to innings limits (LoHud)

Phil Hughes will be skipped one start in the Yankees rotation to limit his innings, Joe Girardi said before Wednesday's series finale against Baltimore. Dustin Moseley will start Sunday in Texas, and Hughes will return to the rotation next Wednesday in Tampa.

Also, Girardi said Alfredo Aceves (back) will not return this season, and Damaso Marte (shoulder) will "probably not" be back in 2010.

The first bit of news is not surprising. Hughes is currently on pace for about 181 regular season innings which would probably be too many for him if he was also asked to start in the playoffs. Although Hughes almost certainly slots in as a start in the playoffs, it probably wouldn't hurt to give his arm some rest. Since they first skipped a start for Hughes in late June after Hughes was 10-1, Hughes is 6-6 in 13 starts (73 innings) since with a 5.55 ERA, 15 HR allowed and an .833 OPS against. Although the track record for skipping Hughes' starts hasn't been great, the results he's put up since June haven't been consistently stellar either so this makes a ton of sense.

The Aceves and Marte news is not great for the Yankees, though they seemed to be resigned to move on without them before this news came down today. Marte has not been a great regular season pitcher for the Yankees but his pitching in the playoffs last year was a big reason they won the World Series (5.2 innings of no-hit ball in the ALCS and World Series). Amazingly, Marte pitched in 30 games for the Yankees in 2010 (the last being on July 7th) which is tied with CC Sabathia for the 4th most on the team behind Joba Chamberlain (60 games), Mariano Rivera (52), David Robertson (52), and Boone Logan (39). The last guy on that list, Logan, is the reason the Yankees can probably be OK with Marte being out. Logan has stepped up in a big way to solidify the lefty specialist role in the bullpen (lefties hitting .194 vs. Logan with one XBH in 70 PAs).

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The Yankee Clipper: Relief Pitching

I feel like "relief" should be in quotes to emphasize the fact that the Yankees bullpen crew hasn't exactly been "lights out". So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the starters, but the relievers--oh boy. It's praying for 6-7 innings from the starters, hold your breath for an inning or two and then TGFMR (which of course stands for Thank God For Mariano Rivera). The trade deadline is fast approaching but the the relievers available look ugly at best. Let's take a look at the guys the Yankees currently have:

1. Mariano Rivera. Where would the Yankees be without The Great Mariano? Worse, where will they be eventually without Rivera? Since Mo became the Yankees full-time closer in 1997, the Yankees have had 30 different relievers save games--Mo has 541 and there are only three guys who have more than 7 (Ramiro Mendoza at 16, Mike Stanton at 15, and Steve Karsay at 12). But while he's still here, let's appreciate the man. So far into 2010, Rivera is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA, and 20 saves (in 22 chances). Since May 24th when Rivera gave up a run against the Mets, Mo has pitched in 21 games, gone 3-0 with 12 saves, has an ERA of 0.40 and the line against him is .122/.167/.135. Oh, and he's supposedly doing this all with multiple injuries and at age 40. His WHIP is 0.645, his H/9 is 4.3 and his ERA + is 405 which are all career bests. Alas, some correction is probably in order. He's held opposing batters to a .194 BABIP which is pretty hard to keep up even for Mariano (his career mark is .274). He's allowed 3.1% of his flyballs to leave the park which is well-below his mark of 6.4% since 2002 or his 15.2% of 2009. And so while his ERA is sitting at 1.01 , his FIP is 2.25 and his xFIP is 3.11. The correction may  not be that large, however; Rivera has outperformed his FIP every season since he's been closer except 2001 and 2007. Rivera's strikeouts are a tick down (first time he hasn't struck out a batter per inning since 2006), but everything else is right on par. One interesting development for Rivera: while everyone thinks that sending a righty up is better than a lefty, lefties are actually hitting Rivera slightly better in 2010 (it's all relative) with a .471 OPS compared to a .336 OPS vs righties. And get this: Rivera's SO:BB ratio vs. righties is 23 to 1 and he's allowed zero runs vs. righties in 2010. Let's hope Rivera--the 1999 World Series MVP and 2003 ALCS MVP--continues to play at this level for a very long time. Best Month: June 2-0, 7 saves, zero runs allowed in 11 games, 4 hits, 11.1 K/9, 0.462 WHIP, 8.00 SO/BB.
2. Joba Chamberlain. My "Joba Rules" t-shirt is slowly becoming obsolete. ESPN's Rob Neyer wrote today about Chamberlain's luck and you hope that those numbers turn around. I agree with Neyer that we won't ever see the Joba we saw in 2007. But I'll take (and most Yankees fans would agree) the Joba who pitched in 2008. The Yankees jerked around Joba for so long and wonder now why he's struggling--is it really any surprise to anyone. Some have suggested trading him (horrible idea considering his low trade value), moving him to the rotation (fine idea but he's not stretched out right now), or sending him down to the minors (a kick in the ass, sure, but what else would this accomplish except put another hole the Yankees bullpen?). This bit from Bloomberg Sports is why Yankees fans are frustrated with Joba: " The big right-hander's ERA stands at 5.77, his WHIP's at 1.51, with opponents now hitting a robust .290 against him. He has not had more than three consecutive scoreless appearances since the middle of May. Of the 11 appearances in which he has allowed a run this year, he has allowed either 3 or 4 runs in five of them, a trend that makes it all but impossible for him to consistently lower his ERA." Despite all that the article (and Neyer's as well) suggests what I suggest with the Yankees and Yankee fans when it comes to Joba: patience. He's struck out almost 10 batters per 9 and walked less than the previous two years. He's not been victim to the longball, but he's just gotten hit all around the park. Eventually, some of those balls are going to get caught. And when it does, I really think that Joba's numbers will fit perfectly in line with 2008 where all his peripherals looked exactly the same but instead of a 5.77 ERA, he had a 2.60 ERA. The road right now has been quite bumpy, but hopefully the Yankees don't panic and acquire an 8th inning guy (or trade Joba), when he may possess exactly what they need to bridge to Mo. The big thing for Joba (in my opinion): stop making the first pitch so hittable. It's important to get first pitch strikes (and hitters hit only .170 against Joba when he gets ahead of them) but batters are hitting .611 against Joba on the first pitch, a sure sign that they're just waiting on fastballs to drive. It's tough right now (as as the New York Daily News wrote, Girardi has put Joba on notice) but I have some faith Joba (2nd in the league in holds) will yet turn it around. Best Month: April 3.48 ERA in 11 games, 1.258 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.33 SO/BB.

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The Yankee Clipper: Starting Pitching

I was all ready to write today's Yankee Clipper on the Yankees starting rotation but then this weekend happened. A.J. Burnett punched something and had to leave the game with cuts on his hand Saturday and then Sunday and Andy Pettitte left early yesterday with a groin strain that will keep him out at least the rest of the month. So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the status update I'll now do for their starters. But here we go into the starting rotation:

1. Andy Pettitte. Yesterday's game marked the first time that Pettitte didn't go 5 innings in a start this season and in those 18 starts, he's only given up more than 4 earned runs once (6 against the Rays in May). Pettitte came into yesterday 11-2 (league-leading .846 winning percentage) with a 2.70 ERA and I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that he's been the Yankees' most consistent starter so far this season. So then the starter that the Yankees have counted on so much this season (the team is 15-3 in games he starts) left early with a groin injury. Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman estimates that Pettitte will be out 4-5 weeks, but the injury expert, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, thinks that may be overly cautious and thinks that Pettitte will be back the second of August. Before the injury, Pettitte was on pace for 20 wins and had his lowest American League ERA since 1997--but he was also on pace to throw 205 innings for the first time since 2007. Yankees fans remember that in 2008 Pettitte had arm troubles so if there is one silver lining for the Yankees, it is that Pettitte will be well-rested down the stretch. But that is of little consolation to the Yankees who are without the AL All-Star Pettitte for a while now. Pettitte has been exceptionally good in 2010 at limiting the amount of hits against him and decreasing the amount of walks he issues, though the former may be somewhat due to luck--Pettitte's .274 BABIP is well-below his career .314 and his 3.97 FIP and 4.06 xFIP reflects that fact. But Pettitte has produced results so far for the Yankees. According to FanGraphs, some of it is due to his cut fastball and curveball being more effective than they've been in years and ditching the slider (which was a bad pitch for him in 2009). The Yankees must be pretty upset right now they didn't get Cliff Lee and they hope that Andy is Dandy for them again soon. If the Yankees can get Pettitte back by the second week in August and have him for the stretch drive, I think they'd take that. Pettitte is usually his best in the second half and the Yankees need the 2001 ALCS MVP to defend their World Series title. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.12 ERA, 25 K, .602 OPS against.
2. A.J. Burnett. If the Yankees hadn't been winning the past two years, you have to imagine that people would be getting a bit more upset with Burnett's performance in Pinstripes. Last year he had an up-and-down season where he dominated at times but led the league in walks and wild pitches showing that other times he was all over the place. The only thing that Burnett is consistent in is his inconsistency. 2010 started out well for Burnett but has seen him dip to a losing record, an ERA pushing 5, and a Major League worst 12 hit batters. He's allowed no earned runs in 5 starts but he's also allowed 6 or more earned runs 6 times. Through the end of May, Burnett was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Since, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has gone to the dark side as he's 1-6 with a 8.15 ERA and .965 OPS against in his past 8 starts. His last start ended early after his punching incident which he blamed on "falling" originally before being caught. I love the pies he brings and his swagger at times on the mound, but Burnett's lack of maturity at times is disheartening and his inability to compose himself is frustrating. Carroll writes about Burnett: "Burnett is certainly not the first pitcher to do something stupid. The meme of a pitcher hitting something with his pitching hand is so strong that it's a full scene in Bull Durham. Burnett cut his hands on a plexiglass lineup holder. Burnett is expected to be back for his next start, though there are some whispers that there could be a push-back if he doesn't make his throw day and show that the cuts won't be an issue." Not exactly what the Yankees were looking for from their #2 starter coming into the season. Burnett's problem is that when he's bad, he's really bad. In his wins, Burnett holds opposing hitters to a .191/.251/.231 line and in his losses it jumps to .363/.453/.701--meaning that in his losses, Burnett isn't even giving his team a good chance to win. Most disturbing for me about Burnett though is about in his results on the field where we've seen his K/9 drop from 9.56 in 2007 to 9.39 in 2006 to 8.48 in 2009 to only 6.71 this season. That's a big concern for the Yankees as Burnett's true value comes from his ability to finish guys off after he gets himself into jams. There is still some debate about whether this inability to gets misses with the bats are due to lost velocity or just not being able to locate the curveball as R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs suggested a month ago. But whatever is the culprit, this is not good news for the Yankees who are still on the hook for 3 more expensive years of Burnett after 2010. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.43 ERA, 20 K, 1.200 WHIP, .660 OPS against.

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The Yankee Clipper: A Series Win Before Heading Back to the Bronx

The Yankees lost for the first time in Minnesota since August of 2008 last night but they still leave Minnesota with a series win and head home to face what should be the easy part of their schedule (here's a look at their pitching probables from Zell's Pinstripe Blog). Since it's been a while since we've done a Yankee Clipper, let's look at how we got here, shall we?

1. A split with Boston, a 2-game loss to Tampa, and then a series loss to the Mets. Yeah, it's been a while since we've done one of these. Tampa seems to be on another level than the rest of the majors, this past week's series against Boston notwithstanding. The split with Boston was disappointing since they had every chance to win that second game including a 5-1 lead and a rally towards the end. The Mets series was even more disappointing as the bats went dead (a theme that has carried through since). Jason Bay continues to be a Yankee killer. Jason @ IIATMS looks into whether the Yankees are waiting for the big hit and while many Yankee fans were busy panicking, Steve at River Ave Blues put everything into perspective. Also to be put in perspective, the Yankees have been playing without Curtis Granderson who returns tonight and Matt from TYU looks at what Granderson's return means to the Yankees. I think it means more protection in a lineup that has recently been pretty bad throughout, especially the middle of the line-up. Getting Granderson back could allow the Yankees to move Swisher into the #2 hole, Granderson into the #6 hole and Gardner further back in the lineup where he thrived earlier in the season.
2. The Yankees still have Minnesota's number. Two one-run games (one suspended) went to the Yankees in the first two. Home runs by Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher in a park that has shown to be very hard to homer in were the difference. Jeter's bad and glove had been questioned recently so it was good for him to show up. So calls about his defense and moving him out of the lead-off spot will have to wait for now.
3. But other teams still have Javier Vazquez's number. Despite looking really good in his last two starts, Vazquez didn't look quite as good last night going for the sweep. Maybe it was that bunt attempt that he took off of his finger...or maybe he really hasn't turned a corner just yet (or maybe he's historically struggled against some of the Twins). Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily writes that just when Javy looked like he had turned the corner, last night happened, and Joe from River Ave Blues writes that there was some good, but mostly bad last night.

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NYaT Roundtable: Joba, Hughes and the 5th Starter Debate

You know that your team is going into a season with few question marks when you get into a heated debate about who the 5th starter is going to be. But that's where we are in Yankee-land. It's not a small issue either--with Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez reaching free agency after the season ends, the Yankees may need to fill quite a few slots behind CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. And with the workload that Sabathia has undergone the past few seasons and the health question marks surround Burnett, this is not a small issue. But I wanted to throw it out there to my friends and blog contributors and see what they think. So we started a roundtable debate on Joba and the 5th starter role. I thought it was a wonderful idea by Pinstriped Bible and I thought we could continue the debate

The Yankees 5th starter debate is not just Joba Chamberlain vs. Phil Hughes but where the rest of the group fits in. Here's what resulted (started on Friday night):

--Andrew: Everyone knows where I stand on this issue because I've written about it before: let’s let Joba, rule-less, go through an entire regular season and see if he can duplicate the success he showed last year before they jerked him around with Joba Rules III. Before they willy-nilly instituted those rules, Joba showed flashes of brilliance, going 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA and dominating in three starts right after the All Star Break. The Yankees then pulled the rug out from under him and he struggled mightily in his mishmosh of a role. I rather give it to Joba and see what he can do over an entire season than give it to Phil Hughes who may be able to throw a max of about 125 innings.

I'll open the floor, though: what do you guys think?

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Yankees Over/Under: Starting Rotation

Yesterday we looked at the Starting 9 with a fun Over/Under game and today we'll check out the starting pitchers. Basically you just put in the comments the numbers and whether you think the player will be under or over in 2010. Tomorrow we'll finish with the bullpen, the coaches and the bench but let's get going with the pitchers (with details about the numbers in parentheses):

1. CC Sabathia - 19 wins (his win total from last year)
2. A.J. Burnett - 29 starts (his average amount of starts the past 5 seasons)
3. Andy Pettitte - 1/2 a run difference between his home and road ERA (his home ERA was 0.88 runs worse last season)
4. Javier Vazquez - 16 wins (his career-high mark set in 2001)
5. Javier Vazquez - 198 IP (his decade-low mark set in 2004 with Yankees)
6. Joba Chamberlain - 22 starts (his average the past two seasons)
7. Phil Hughes - 4.50 ERA as a starter (his career mark as a starter is 5.22)
8. Alfredo Aceves - 5 starts (his career total)
9. Sergio Mitre + Chad Gaudin - 9 starts combined (9 was Mitre's total alone last season)

And now a few non-stat related ones:

10. CC Sabathia - 4th in the Cy Young voting (his finish last season and "over would be mean better and "under" would mean worse)
11. Javier Vazquez - 1.5 times per game 2004 ALCS Game 7 shot of Vazquez shown
12. A.J. Burnett - 10 pies in the face after game-winning hits (the Yankees had 15 game-winning hits last season)
13. CC Sabathia- 290 pounds (his "official" weight)
14. Other starters - 3 starts by other pitchers than the 9 listed above
15. Andy Pettitte - 10 starts until a New York newspaper suggests he's "done"

Put your thoughts in the comments below. I'll tally up the results and we'll see how we did in October.

Picture from the New York Times

NYP: Joba Is Going to Stay in Bullpen for Playoffs

Well this isn't unexpected, but it's still surprising. From the New York Post's Joel Sherman:

Should the Yankees advance to the ALCS, they are leaning heavily toward using Chad Gaudin rather than Joba Chamberlain as the Game 4 starter, The Post has learned.

--snip--

The Yankees want Chamberlain available to impact multiple games as a reliever rather than be a questionable starter for one game. Even if Gaudin were to have a short start, the Yankees have Alfredo Aceves and possibly even Chamberlain to eat up innings in long relief.

In addition, with an off-day scheduled after ALCS Game 4, the Yankees could empty their pen in support of Gaudin, and still have all of their relievers available for a Game 5. There also is a scenario if the Yankees were to sweep this Division Series they could use three starters with CC Sabathia working once on short rest.

Well there it is. If they get to that point, let's hope that Gaudin's starts aren't too short or too bad. It's great and all to have such a deep bullpen, but if you're starting pitching performs, when do you use these guys? CC on short rest makes some sense as well, but they've worked so hard to keep him on regular rest after his lack of success last year on short rest in the playoffs, do they really want to do that? As a short-term move, though, I can live with this. Joba, Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera can all be extended and really shorten a game for the Yankees. It also lessens the wear and tear on Joba's arm, as less postseason innings for his season should be an added benefit of this move.

The reason I am surprised is that Joba has pitched well against the Red Sox this season so if they're the opponent, it seems like it may backfire. The one thing that may ease the fears of Joe Girardi? Gaudin has a 2.64 career ERA in 30.2 innings against Boston. It's not much of a sample size, but it'll have to do if the Red Sox are the opponent.

Paul--who is an ardent Joba-to-the-'pen supporter--probably feels like he won the argument, but I think this is just a temporary move for the playoffs. Hopefully we'll see Joba and Hughes in the rotation next year...with renewed confidence...and World Series rings.