Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010 Pt 2

Back in December we took a trip in the time machine back to last off-season and looked at how close the Yankees came to the "Worst Case Scenario" series we did last year. We started with Part 1 and the starting lineup. Well let's continue that with theme today with Part 2, which was the starting pitching staff. By then I realized that non-Yankee fans were taking a lot of joy in my scenarios but it didn't stop me from looking at what would go horribly wrong if the pitching staff fell apart. Let's see how close we got to that scenario:

AJ Burnett was a "black eye" for the Yankees (FanHouse)

CC Sabathia
What I said worst-case would look like: "Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series...According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys."

What actually happened: Sabathia's arm and body held up another year's grind, starting an AL-leading 34 games, pitching 237.2 innings, and winning a Major League-leading 21 games. Sabathia was an All-Star, came in third in the Cy Young voting, and 13th in the MVP voting. He pitched about as well during the regular season as he did in his first year in Pinstripes (with less strikeouts but more groundballs). The issue for CC was when he hit the playoffs. After being stellar in 2009, he was so-so to bad in 2010. He started three times but only pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up a whopping 22 hits and 10 earned runs, striking out 15 but walking 7, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch, and being charged with a balk. Sabathia was a huge reason the Yankees made the playoffs (from August 7th-September 2nd he won every time he started), but for them to win the World Series in 2011, they need him to carry it through to the playoffs.

A.J. Burnett

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Tonight's Pitching Matchup: Yankees vs. Rangers Game 4

Whether you have faith in A.J. or have faith in the Yankees...or not, tonight is a big game. With the Yankees down 2-1, they need a good outing from the enigmatic starter. On the other hand, the young Tommy Hunter goes for the Rangers. Here's the match-up

A.J. Burnett vs. the Rangers hitters (including playoffs)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SF	IBB	HBP	GDP
Matt Treanor	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0	0	0	0
Josh Hamilton	19	16	4	2	0	1	3	2	2	.250	.368	.563	.931	0	0	1	0
David Murphy	22	17	5	0	0	1	2	4	4	.294	.455	.471	.925	0	0	1	0
Nelson Cruz	18	14	2	1	0	1	4	4	8	.143	.333	.429	.762	0	0	0	0
Vladimir Guerrero	60	56	13	6	0	2	6	4	13	.232	.283	.446	.730	0	1	0	2
Mike Young	37	36	9	1	0	1	1	1	6	.250	.270	.361	.631	0	0	0	0
Ian Kinsler	22	20	4	0	0	1	4	1	4	.200	.273	.350	.623	0	0	1	0
Elvis Andrus	17	14	3	0	0	0	0	2	4	.214	.353	.214	.567	0	0	1	0
Bengie Molina	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0	0
Julio Borbon	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	.111	.111	.111	.222	0	0	0	1
Jorge Cantu	15	15	1	0	0	0	2	0	2	.067	.067	.067	.133	0	0	0	0
Jeff Francoeur	9	7	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	.000	.111	.000	.111	1	0	0	0
Cliff Lee	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Mitch Moreland	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
Total	238	213	44	10	0	7	24	20	50	.207	.286	.352	.638	1	1	4	3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/19/2010.

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It's Gut-Check Time: Will History Repeat Itself?

The Yankees are down 2-1 in the ALCS after they got thumped in a game Andy Pettitte started. The team acknowledges it's gut-check time as they try to get a big Game 4 win from a question mark (who hasn't pitched in over two weeks) and get the ball back to their big lefty ace. They've scored two runs total in the past two games and although this next game is elimination, it certainly feels like a must-win. Why? They just got dominated by the opposing starter and know that if it comes to Game 7 they will have to face him opposite Pettitte. They had a 5-run inning in Game 1 but besides that, the bats have been silent. The New York press seems to be in full panic mode.

Yankees hope for El Duque-like magic from AJ (SI)

Oh, I forgot to mention--the year is 1998.

Yup, the Yankees were in the exact same scenario in 1998 as they are currently in, though they had to climb back in Game 4 while on the road (they had home-field advantage but after having split at home, they lost Game 3 on the road). It's true that year they had a guy on the mound who inspires a bit more confidence in Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez--but it was still the same dicey situation since El Duque was truly an unknown commodity at that point as well.

The New York Daily News' Peter Botte wrote that day: "'It's gut-check time,' David Cone said after Andy Pettitte and the Yanks were thumped 6-1 here Friday night to fall behind 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven ALCS. 'It's a real character test for this team. We've got to get a big game from El Duque and get to the ball back to Boomer (David Wells), who's been our best pitcher all year.'"

The Yankees won Game 4 behind a great-pitched game from El Duque and then went on to win Games 4, 5 and 6 to take the series and then won 4 more in a row to sweep the World Series. 1998 was the last time the Yanks found themselves down 2-1 in an ALCS. Less than 5 hours to go until game time and whether you agree with starting A.J. tonight or not, you have agree that the key for the Yankees win tonight will be their bats awakening which, have been held silent except for one inning in the first game, much like the ALCS of 1998.

The last time the Yankees faced a "must-win" in the playoffs was Game 2 of the World Series last season. Burnett shut down a potent Phillies team that night to right the Yankees ship. Tonight Yankees fans hope he does the same.

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Yankees will pitch AJ Burnett in ALCS

MLB.com reported last night that the Yankees will use AJ Burnett in the ALCS, regardless of whether they face the Rangers or the Rays.

Photo courtesy of the NY Post.

Burnett, as we all know, had a very poor season in 2010.  The numbers tell most of the story: AJ went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA over 186.2 innings.  He also compiled a 1.51 WHIP, a 9.8 H/9, and a 1.2 HR/9 (those last two stats are the highest of his career).  In fact, Burnett's season was so bad that it could be the worst season of any Yankees pitcher.  Ever.  No pitcher had ever thrown at least 180 innings with an ERA that high.  At the very least, AJ's performance was the worst value in pro sports. So it made sense that the Yankees left him off their ALDS roster, right?  Right.

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The Yankee Clipper: Going For A Sweep (and Poll Results)

The Yankees have notched 5 Ws in a row and going for a 4-game sweep of the lowly Oakland Athletics today at the Stadium. Since the beginning of July, the Yankees have only lost 3 series (two vs. Toronto and one vs. Tampa) and the Yankees now sit by themselves in 1st place, a season-high 33 games over .500 at 83-50. How did we get here and where do the Yankees go from here?

Jorge Posada's strike out from last night looked a bit outside (BrooksBaseball)

1. The Yankees rotation concerns are really nothing new. Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues wrote a whole post about it, but I've been saying it for weeks: the 2010 team looks a lot like 2009. This statement was true for both 2009 and 2010: A.J. Burnett went 0-4 in August with an ugly ERA and questions were raised about his ability to pitch in October. Well last night we saw Good A.J., also known as the guy who won every Game 2 for the Yankees last year. So the Yankees will have to hope for a Good A.J. the rest of the way, a healthy Andy Pettitte, and someone else (Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, or Javier Vazquez) step up and contribute. This is not to say that the rotation shouldn't be a concern for the Yankees, but just that the Yankees had the same issues and much less depth last year and they figure out how to bring home a World Series. Moshe Mandel at TYU takes an early gander at the postseason rotation. I think a lot of that will be in flux as September performances take shape. Brien @ IIATMS takes stock of the rotation.
2. Robinson Cano: MVP? We'll have to look at this a bit more, but I wanted to throw it out there. Josh Hamilton is kicking Cano's ass in WAR on FanGraphs, but leads all AL hitters in WAR in Baseball-Reference. As ESPN Stats and Info blog wrote yesterday, Cano's best time of year is just starting so te best may be yet to come (though it's hard to imagine him being better than his ridiculous April). YES' Jack Curry writes that Cano is showing the maturity and talent of an MVP. Detroit has fallen off so Miguel Cabrera will be hard-pressed to win (unless he miraculously takes the AL Triple Crown) and Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford will probably split votes for their teams. The Yankees' other two of NoMass' Three Amigos (Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher) don't figure to take away too many votes from Cano. I think it comes down to Hamilton and Cano and Cano's position may make it a close race.
3. What will be the price tag on Derek Jeter?

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The Yankee Clipper: Burnett, Gardner, Jeter, Granderson and Cashman

That's the list of subjects for today. After a 4-game split with the Red Sox, the Yankees head to Texas to face the 1st place Texas Rangers. Let's set up the situation:

Curtis Granderson has had a rough go of it against LHP (NYDN)

1. Curtis Granderson needs to platoon. It's pretty simple. Granderson has been awful against lefties and since this is a trend that has followed him from Detroit, it's time to stop the experiment. I agree with Joe from River Ave Blues: platoon Granderson. Although the Yankees were oh-for-9 with runners in scoring position yesterday, the most frustrating of them was when Granderson faced Lester with the bases loaded and struck out. It wasn't necessarily him striking out (Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher would do the same thing in the following ABs against Daniel Bard), but the fact he was batting at all. Granderson sucks big time against lefties and while there was no perfect replacement on the bench  with both Austin Kearns and Marcus Thames starting, Brett Gardner (as Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus pointed out, Gardner, while a lefty himself, has a .375 OBP of better vs.. LHP the past two seasons) or Lance Berkman would have been better options. But Girardi has stuck with Granderson through thick and thin against lefties and while I understand it at times (the Yankees have a long-term investment in Granderson and need to see if he can be more than a platoon player), going forward the Yankees need to worry about winnings games and not The Grandy Man's feelings. The New York Post's Joel Sherman says that Granderson should be glad that The Big Stein is not around because the pressure could be a lot higher.
2. Brett Gardner needs to run more. Gardner has been in a horrendous slump recently, but even worse than his slump has been his hesitancy on the basepaths. Yesterday was a prime example. As Jaffe writes: "Girardi pulled [A-Rod] for the pinch-running Gardner, who drew four pickoff attempts from Bard but didn't attempt to steal against Martinez despite the Boston backstop's 19 percent success rate in throwing out would-be thieves. Gardner finally lit for second on a hit-and-run as Cano grounded to second, something of a wasted opportunity for the speedster." As Ben from River Ave Blues writes "In an ideal world, Gardner would be the Jacoby Ellsbury of the Yankees. The speed is there, but Gardner doesn’t have the instincts or daring of Ellsbury." I usually don't try to get into the psyche of a player, but that seems to be an extremely true statement. Gardner is one of the fastest white men around yet he seems too scared about getting caught. While stealing efficiency is important, he needs to go in those type of situations. Yesterday, Brett the Jet was grounded.

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The Yankee Clipper: Starting Pitching

I was all ready to write today's Yankee Clipper on the Yankees starting rotation but then this weekend happened. A.J. Burnett punched something and had to leave the game with cuts on his hand Saturday and then Sunday and Andy Pettitte left early yesterday with a groin strain that will keep him out at least the rest of the month. So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the status update I'll now do for their starters. But here we go into the starting rotation:

1. Andy Pettitte. Yesterday's game marked the first time that Pettitte didn't go 5 innings in a start this season and in those 18 starts, he's only given up more than 4 earned runs once (6 against the Rays in May). Pettitte came into yesterday 11-2 (league-leading .846 winning percentage) with a 2.70 ERA and I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that he's been the Yankees' most consistent starter so far this season. So then the starter that the Yankees have counted on so much this season (the team is 15-3 in games he starts) left early with a groin injury. Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman estimates that Pettitte will be out 4-5 weeks, but the injury expert, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, thinks that may be overly cautious and thinks that Pettitte will be back the second of August. Before the injury, Pettitte was on pace for 20 wins and had his lowest American League ERA since 1997--but he was also on pace to throw 205 innings for the first time since 2007. Yankees fans remember that in 2008 Pettitte had arm troubles so if there is one silver lining for the Yankees, it is that Pettitte will be well-rested down the stretch. But that is of little consolation to the Yankees who are without the AL All-Star Pettitte for a while now. Pettitte has been exceptionally good in 2010 at limiting the amount of hits against him and decreasing the amount of walks he issues, though the former may be somewhat due to luck--Pettitte's .274 BABIP is well-below his career .314 and his 3.97 FIP and 4.06 xFIP reflects that fact. But Pettitte has produced results so far for the Yankees. According to FanGraphs, some of it is due to his cut fastball and curveball being more effective than they've been in years and ditching the slider (which was a bad pitch for him in 2009). The Yankees must be pretty upset right now they didn't get Cliff Lee and they hope that Andy is Dandy for them again soon. If the Yankees can get Pettitte back by the second week in August and have him for the stretch drive, I think they'd take that. Pettitte is usually his best in the second half and the Yankees need the 2001 ALCS MVP to defend their World Series title. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.12 ERA, 25 K, .602 OPS against.
2. A.J. Burnett. If the Yankees hadn't been winning the past two years, you have to imagine that people would be getting a bit more upset with Burnett's performance in Pinstripes. Last year he had an up-and-down season where he dominated at times but led the league in walks and wild pitches showing that other times he was all over the place. The only thing that Burnett is consistent in is his inconsistency. 2010 started out well for Burnett but has seen him dip to a losing record, an ERA pushing 5, and a Major League worst 12 hit batters. He's allowed no earned runs in 5 starts but he's also allowed 6 or more earned runs 6 times. Through the end of May, Burnett was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Since, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has gone to the dark side as he's 1-6 with a 8.15 ERA and .965 OPS against in his past 8 starts. His last start ended early after his punching incident which he blamed on "falling" originally before being caught. I love the pies he brings and his swagger at times on the mound, but Burnett's lack of maturity at times is disheartening and his inability to compose himself is frustrating. Carroll writes about Burnett: "Burnett is certainly not the first pitcher to do something stupid. The meme of a pitcher hitting something with his pitching hand is so strong that it's a full scene in Bull Durham. Burnett cut his hands on a plexiglass lineup holder. Burnett is expected to be back for his next start, though there are some whispers that there could be a push-back if he doesn't make his throw day and show that the cuts won't be an issue." Not exactly what the Yankees were looking for from their #2 starter coming into the season. Burnett's problem is that when he's bad, he's really bad. In his wins, Burnett holds opposing hitters to a .191/.251/.231 line and in his losses it jumps to .363/.453/.701--meaning that in his losses, Burnett isn't even giving his team a good chance to win. Most disturbing for me about Burnett though is about in his results on the field where we've seen his K/9 drop from 9.56 in 2007 to 9.39 in 2006 to 8.48 in 2009 to only 6.71 this season. That's a big concern for the Yankees as Burnett's true value comes from his ability to finish guys off after he gets himself into jams. There is still some debate about whether this inability to gets misses with the bats are due to lost velocity or just not being able to locate the curveball as R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs suggested a month ago. But whatever is the culprit, this is not good news for the Yankees who are still on the hook for 3 more expensive years of Burnett after 2010. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.43 ERA, 20 K, 1.200 WHIP, .660 OPS against.

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Pitching in the American League East

When one thinks of the AL East, they think of slugging teams and tough ballparks for pitchers to pitch. They think of sluggers like Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis and Big Papi, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, and, more recently, guys like Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, Nick Markakis and even Luke Scott. What they don't think of usually is pitching, however. But exactly 1/3 into the season, the AL East is producing all the Cy Young candidates for the American League.

ESPN.com produces a Cy Young Predictor based on The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. Although with advanced pitching metrics, these basic statistics have been less important to some voters in recent years, it still gives a good idea of who is performing at a high level on the season. I posted below the current rankings for the American League pitchers. Since Victory Bonus (VB) is something that is only really applied at the end of the season, I will take away a prorated 3 from Neftali Feliz meaning that the top 9 candidates in the American League are from the AL East.

2010 Cy Young Predictor - AL
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	CYP	G	GS	IP	ER	K	SV	SHO	W-L	ERA	VB
1	David Price	TB	71.9	11	11	74.2	19	53	0	1	8-2	2.29	0
2	Phil Hughes	NYY	62.7	10	10	63.2	18	64	0	0	7-1	2.54	0
3	Andy Pettitte	NYY	61.7	10	10	65.1	18	41	0	0	7-1	2.48	0
4	Rafael Soriano	TB	59.5	23	0	22.1	4	19	15	0	2-0	1.61	0
5	Clay Buchholz	BOS	55.7	10	10	62.2	19	47	0	0	7-3	2.73	0
6	Jon Lester	BOS	54.8	11	11	72.2	24	77	0	0	6-2	2.97	0
7	Shaun Marcum	TOR	51.4	12	12	81.1	25	62	0	0	5-2	2.77	0
8	Jeff Niemann	TB	51.2	11	11	71.0	22	45	0	0	5-0	2.79	0
9	Neftali Feliz	TEX	50.5	25	0	25.1	8	26	14	0	1-1	2.84	3
10	A.J. Burnett	NYY	50.1	11	11	71.1	26	53	0	0	6-2	3.28	0

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The Yankee Clipper: Another Series Win In Beantown

Even though it feels like the Yankees haven't really gotten hot, they have started at an all-time pace. They won their first give series to match the 1926 squad for the best mark in team history. Coming into the series, they had won eight of their first nine series. The last time they had done that was 2003. Now, after taking two of three in Boston, the Yankees have won nine out of their first ten series. The only two Yankees teams to do that? The 1939 team (11 of 12) and the 1928 team (14 of 15). And at 21-9, the Yankees are off to one of the best 30-game starts in the Derek Jeter Era (in 1998 and 2003, the team went 23-7 to begin both seasons). Last year after 30 games the Yankees were 14-16, 5.5 games out of first, and A-Rod had just returned from the DL the game before. So this team is a little bit ahead of last year's pace. Let's talk a little bit about the series that was in Fenway Park this past weekend:

1. Mark Teixeira and A-Rod started to wake up. It was only a matter of time before the middle of the Yankees lineup got rolling. It was this time last year when A-Rod came off the DL so it's really a year since they were this cold. Now they're heating up. Tex had 3 home runs on Saturday (though the last one was off of an outfielder) and A-Rod had a .556/.615/1.000 mark for the weekend at the plate and seemed to look more comfortable at the plate. A-Rod's home run yesterday was number 586 for his career, tying Frank Robinson on the all-time home run list. ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand says this could signal more A-Bombs ahead. Moshe at TYU says they were getting plenty of consistent offense even without those guys. That was, until Robinson Cano stopped hitting in May.
2. The "Sore Four" expands. The Yankees injuries are starting to pile up. Curtis Granderson is out a month. Chan Ho Park hasn't been seen in a month. Nick Johnson is on the DL. Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera are battling issues. Jorge Posada missed a week. A-Rod missed a few games. Alfredo Aceves left Saturday's game with an injury. Robinson Cano left Friday's game with an injury. The wild card for the Yankees was always their health with a veteran team. They've gotten great contributions from guys like Francisco Cervelli and Sergio Mitre helping to fill in for others. But the Yankees need to work on getting guys healthy ASAP and the Post's Joel Sherman writes that these injuries should give the Yankees pause before committing too many more years to older players this off-season.

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The Yankee Clipper: 1926

If you're wondering why I put 1926 in the title, it's because 1926 was the last time the Yankees won their first four series before this year. That Yankees team led by Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig would go on to win another series (their 5th in a row to begin the season) on their way to winning the American League pennant. The following year was the most famous as the 1927 Yankees went 110-44, but the 1926 Yankees may have had a hotter start. Let's get to the top 5:

1. The Yankees now head out West and Javier Vazquez looks for his first win tonight. 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and a ton of boos was not the way that Javy wanted to start his second go-around with the Yankees. The good part for Vazquez is that he now gets two starts on the road before he needs to pitch again in front of the Yankee Stadium crowd. The bad part for Vazquez is that he needs to pitch well in these starts before he pitches again the White Sox next week or it won't be pretty.
2. Vazquez is the only Yankee starter not to win a game--the rest of the Yankees staff looks great. It's only three starts in (for the top 3), but let's just say that none of their top 3 looked this good last season and the Yankees won 103 games. CC Sabathia is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, and has struck out 18 (to only 4 walks), A.J. Burnett is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and has struck out 13, and Andy Pettitte looks great with a 2-0 record, 1.35 ERA, 14 Ks and a team-high 20 IP. With Phil Hughes pitching well in his first start as well, this is a great start for a rotation that came in with some question marks. In ESPN's Cy Young Predictor (not really looking at the award, but more for the factors that go into this), the top 3 are all in the top-7 of AL starters and only Matt Garza tops Pettitte.
3. The lineup as a whole, has been on a roll, too. If you figure that a good hitter will have a wOBA above .350, then the Yankees are chock full of good hitters early on according to FanGraphs. Jorge Posada leads all regulars with a .505 wOBA (Marcus Thames and Francisco Cervelli are a bit higher in more limited playing time) and Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, and Brett Gardner are all over .400. The Yankees middle of their defense--Posada (.378/.465/.730, 3 HR), Cano (.340 average, 4 HR, 10 RBI), Jeter (.380/.404/.600 3 HR), and Granderson (.311/.380/.578, 2 HR, 4 SB)--are off to great starts. Even Brett Gardner is looking like Ichiro with infield hits and 7 stolen bases and guys like Cervelli, Thames and Pena are coming off the bench and getting big hits for the Yankees.
4. Even their struggling players have silver linings. Nick Johnson is struggling to get hits with a .158 average but leads the AL in walks with 14 and has a .407 OBP. Nick Swisher has struggled a bit early on but has seen 4.16 P/PA which is 7th in the AL. A-Rod's power hasn't taken off yet, but he's batting .295/.415/.523 and has a .406 wOBA. Mark Teixeira is having another atrocious April at the bat but he's flashing the leather yet again. And when they all start hitting, this lineup is going to be treacherous to navigate.
   

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The Yankee Clipper: Game 2

I have to admit, most of my time was spent last night watching LOST and some of my sports watching was split between the Yankees/Red Sox and the Rangers. But that doesn't mean I can't give you a Yankee Clipper for Game 2:

1. I'm sure you've heard by now of Big Papi's big, expletive-laced tirade. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston has some more information. Matt at Fack Youk thinks he may have justifiably been upset since we are two games into the season and he's already getting questions about his production. Craig Calcaterra at HardballTalk agrees with Matt. I'm OK with Papi being upset about being questioned this early in the season, but the dude is playing in one of the biggest baseball media markets and reaped a lot of good will form the writers when his career was going well. He can't now turn to the same people and mouth off just because they have to fill a newspaper column. That's unfair.
2. Also unfair is claiming that Joba Chamberlain has been magically healed by the bullpen gods because he pitched well last night and pumped his fist (*cough* Wallace Matthews). We'll never know now if he could have done this as a starter in the rotation, but those same people weren't texting me on Sunday night and saying that Joba's "bullpen mentality" wasn't working that night. I'm rooting for him to do well in this role--I really am--but I'm not going to engage in selective celebrations of success. We can collectively fist pump if Phil Hughes pitches well in the 5th role and the Yankees get to the playoffs at the end of the year. I can't say I didn't love the fist pump (I did one at home), but let's all settle down a bit (picture to the right from the ESPN New York article)
3. Nick Johnson's walk. Sometimes the biggest hit of the game is not a hit at all. If you want to see a reason we got Nick Johnson, that was it. Like Giambi, because of his eye Johnson is one of those guys who is sometimes does more damage with a walk than with a hit. It's not the most fun baseball, but it's what puts runs on the board and marks in the win column. As Mike from River Ave Blues wrote, Nick Johnson's biggest swing came with the bat on his shoulder.
4. Nick Swisher's patience. Pitchers will hate both of the "Nicks" in the Yankees lineup of 2010. Swishalicous saw 30 pitches last night. The best AB was 8 pitches against Manny Delcarmen. He doubled at the end of the at-bat and even though he didn't score, the amount of pitches he saw effects the game and the rest of the series. Maybe Delcarmen is unavailable tonight because of the toll he took last night. That's a victory in and of itself.
5. Robinson Cano's power. When Cano is on with the bat, he has such a sweet swing. This is a guy who could win a batting title and maybe vie for an MVP award if he kept focused all season. His blast to rightfield last night continued to show that. Focus, Robby, focus.

Final Thoughts: Other aspects I didn't talk about? Jorge and AJ doing fine as battery mates (we can stop that chatter for now), Alfredo Aceves doing really well out of the bullpen (I think that will be a big factor), and Marco Scutaro's error (is their a Red Sox curse for not resigning Orlando Cabrera?). 1-1 record and going for the series win tonight. Good start to the season. I just love having baseball back as the weather continues to get nicer.

Yankees Over/Under: Starting Rotation

Yesterday we looked at the Starting 9 with a fun Over/Under game and today we'll check out the starting pitchers. Basically you just put in the comments the numbers and whether you think the player will be under or over in 2010. Tomorrow we'll finish with the bullpen, the coaches and the bench but let's get going with the pitchers (with details about the numbers in parentheses):

1. CC Sabathia - 19 wins (his win total from last year)
2. A.J. Burnett - 29 starts (his average amount of starts the past 5 seasons)
3. Andy Pettitte - 1/2 a run difference between his home and road ERA (his home ERA was 0.88 runs worse last season)
4. Javier Vazquez - 16 wins (his career-high mark set in 2001)
5. Javier Vazquez - 198 IP (his decade-low mark set in 2004 with Yankees)
6. Joba Chamberlain - 22 starts (his average the past two seasons)
7. Phil Hughes - 4.50 ERA as a starter (his career mark as a starter is 5.22)
8. Alfredo Aceves - 5 starts (his career total)
9. Sergio Mitre + Chad Gaudin - 9 starts combined (9 was Mitre's total alone last season)

And now a few non-stat related ones:

10. CC Sabathia - 4th in the Cy Young voting (his finish last season and "over would be mean better and "under" would mean worse)
11. Javier Vazquez - 1.5 times per game 2004 ALCS Game 7 shot of Vazquez shown
12. A.J. Burnett - 10 pies in the face after game-winning hits (the Yankees had 15 game-winning hits last season)
13. CC Sabathia- 290 pounds (his "official" weight)
14. Other starters - 3 starts by other pitchers than the 9 listed above
15. Andy Pettitte - 10 starts until a New York newspaper suggests he's "done"

Put your thoughts in the comments below. I'll tally up the results and we'll see how we did in October.

Picture from the New York Times

Three Bothersome Things and a Few Takeaways

It's weird to feel nervous about this World Series. The Yankees are up 3-2 and coming back to the Bronx. The Yankees have lost two games in a row at home only twice since A-Rod returned to the lineup at the beginning of May. Amazingly, those two times were to the Nationals and the Orioles. So there's reason to have faith that the team with the best record in baseball and the best record at home should be able to win one of two back in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.

It also may be unreasonable to think the Yankees should have won all three games in Philly. The last team to sweep the middle three games of the series on the road were the 1996 Yankees who swept the Braves in Atlanta to win the 1996 World Series. But it doesn't mean that last night's game isn't bothersome. Here's four reasons why:

• Joe Girardi starting A.J. Burnett on 3 days rest and going with Molina over Posada. I was a big fan of going with A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia on 3 days rest. I still think it was the right decision to do so. It just didn't work out. Burnett was awful last night and the Yankees were forced to use their bullpen for a lot of pitches. That bodes poorly when you consider the Yankees have Pettitte on short rest coming up next. The one thing I have a problem with was keeping Jose Molina in the lineup over Jorge Posada. I can at least tolerate it in an American League park with the DH, but with Gardner, Molina and Burnett at the bottom of the Yankees lineup last  night against Cliff Lee, they were already playing from behind. And Molina's game calling hasn't stopped A.J. from having bad first innings in Game 5 of the past two series. So that move was a total failure.

• Phil Coke's two home runs. One big takeaway from last night was how well the Yankees bullpen pitched--except for Phil Coke. The rest of the bullpen (David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves and Phil Hughes) pitched 5.1 innings, giving up only 3 hits, 0 BB, and 4 K. Although they were mostly low-pressure situations, it was good to see some reliable arms emerge from the bullpen. Phil Coke, on the other hand, was downright awful. With Damaso Marte having worked a lot this series and coming off arm troubles this season, it was up to the other lefty in the Yankees 'pen to get the job done. Instead, Coke gave up two home runs to two lefties and those two runs were the insurance the Phillies needed as that was the difference in the game. Add Phil Coke to Brian Bruney on the list of pitchers who should never see the pitching mound again this season.

• Derek Jeter's GIDP and Mark Teixeira's K. The last bothersome thing is that the Yankees had a chance to come back, but fell just short. Derek Jeter grounded into a huge double play in the 9th inning. With runners on first and third and nobody out, Jeter had a chance to really put the pressure on the Phils. Jeter let a fastball go right down the middle then turned over on another fastball for an easy GIDP. Derek Jeter has hit into 14 postseason double plays, including 3 costly ones in the 2007 ALDS. None were more costly, however, than last night's. Johnny Damon reached after Jeter (another great AB by Damon) and Mark Teixeira represented the tying run. But Ryan Madson made Tex look silly and struck him out looking. The gameplan for the Phils facing Teixeira seem to be fastballs away and breaking balls down and it has been working. Teixeira now has struckout 7 times so far in the World Series after 8 Ks in the ALCS. He has only two hits in 19 ABs (although one was a HR and the other a 2B). Mark Teixiera's first playoffs in pinstripes is looking a lot like Tino Martinez's first playoffs for the Yankees in 1996, especially the World Series. Tino was only 1-11 in that series and had to be replaced by Cecil Fielder, but was an offensive force in his next 4 World Series with the Bronx Bombers. Teixeira still has a chance to be a hero both because of his defense and because he had 24 HR, 71 RBI and an OPS of 1.013 at home during the regular season. He also had 30 of his 39 HR and 91 of his 122 RBIs as a lefty this season and he will switch around to that side for Pedro Martinez, the pitcher he went deep off of in Game 2. That's little consolation for the Yankees comeback last night, however.
  

A few Twitter reactions when I posed the question about what bothered people the most this morning:

• @Lumpy231: how bout the decision to throw the whole staff on 3 days rest
• @yankeechick78: I was just talking about the goats of the game. and I named all three that you did. Cokes bothers me the most.
• @YankeeClipper09: Coke's HRs and Jeter's GIDP.  But, I love the fight in this team.  They made the Phillies, and their fans, nervous in the 9th
• @darry2385: coke's HRs.  turned out to be the difference in the game, despite AJ's no-show
• @Milfhunters: the gidp was the game killer, but tex's weak outs are really troubling
• @jonathan_meola: AJ put us in the hole 2 begin with.  Coke's HRs was just the frosting on the cake
• @5States: I'd say AJ's start, because without that, the other stuff really doesn't happen.
  

One good thing for the Yankees is that Pettitte has been really good for the Yanks on short rest. Here's what he's done in the postseason on 3-days rest via Baseball-Reference:

Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc BF AB 2B ERA
-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+
1996-10-13    ALCS   5 NYY @BAL W  6-4  GS-8  ,W   8    3  2  2  1  3  2 100  60   70 28 27  0  2.25 
1996-10-24    WS     5 NYY @ATL W  1-0  GS-9  ,W   8.1  5  0  0  3  4  0  96  59   74 31 28  1  0.00 
1997-10-06    ALDS   5 NYY @CLE L  3-4  GS-7  ,L   6.2  6  4  4  0  2  0  97  68   48 26 23  2  5.40 
2000-10-08    ALDS   5 NYY @OAK W  7-5  GS-4       3.2 10  5  5  2  4  0  88  55   23 23 19  1  12.27 
2003-10-19    WS     2 NYY  FLA W  6-1  GS-9  ,W   8.2  6  1  0  1  7  0 111  70   76 32 31  0  0.00 

That's really only one bad start in there. I know Pettitte is a bit older, but if you look at the World Series success he has in the past on short rest, there's a reason to be optimistic

Here's another few reasons to be optimistic: the Yankees never give up, the Phillies bullpen is shaky at best, and the Yankees are still up 3-2 in this series. This is how the ALCS was won as well and keeping with my original prediction, I see the Yankees bringing it back to the Bronx and wrapping it up in 6. This team never gives up in a game and I think it would be apropos of the themes of the 2009 season if the Yankees won it at home tomorrow night with Pettitte starting, Rivera closing and a comeback win for the Yankees in the Bronx.