The Yankee Clipper: Starting Pitching

I was all ready to write today's Yankee Clipper on the Yankees starting rotation but then this weekend happened. A.J. Burnett punched something and had to leave the game with cuts on his hand Saturday and then Sunday and Andy Pettitte left early yesterday with a groin strain that will keep him out at least the rest of the month. So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the status update I'll now do for their starters. But here we go into the starting rotation:

1. Andy Pettitte. Yesterday's game marked the first time that Pettitte didn't go 5 innings in a start this season and in those 18 starts, he's only given up more than 4 earned runs once (6 against the Rays in May). Pettitte came into yesterday 11-2 (league-leading .846 winning percentage) with a 2.70 ERA and I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that he's been the Yankees' most consistent starter so far this season. So then the starter that the Yankees have counted on so much this season (the team is 15-3 in games he starts) left early with a groin injury. Yankees' General Manager Brian Cashman estimates that Pettitte will be out 4-5 weeks, but the injury expert, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, thinks that may be overly cautious and thinks that Pettitte will be back the second of August. Before the injury, Pettitte was on pace for 20 wins and had his lowest American League ERA since 1997--but he was also on pace to throw 205 innings for the first time since 2007. Yankees fans remember that in 2008 Pettitte had arm troubles so if there is one silver lining for the Yankees, it is that Pettitte will be well-rested down the stretch. But that is of little consolation to the Yankees who are without the AL All-Star Pettitte for a while now. Pettitte has been exceptionally good in 2010 at limiting the amount of hits against him and decreasing the amount of walks he issues, though the former may be somewhat due to luck--Pettitte's .274 BABIP is well-below his career .314 and his 3.97 FIP and 4.06 xFIP reflects that fact. But Pettitte has produced results so far for the Yankees. According to FanGraphs, some of it is due to his cut fastball and curveball being more effective than they've been in years and ditching the slider (which was a bad pitch for him in 2009). The Yankees must be pretty upset right now they didn't get Cliff Lee and they hope that Andy is Dandy for them again soon. If the Yankees can get Pettitte back by the second week in August and have him for the stretch drive, I think they'd take that. Pettitte is usually his best in the second half and the Yankees need the 2001 ALCS MVP to defend their World Series title. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.12 ERA, 25 K, .602 OPS against.
2. A.J. Burnett. If the Yankees hadn't been winning the past two years, you have to imagine that people would be getting a bit more upset with Burnett's performance in Pinstripes. Last year he had an up-and-down season where he dominated at times but led the league in walks and wild pitches showing that other times he was all over the place. The only thing that Burnett is consistent in is his inconsistency. 2010 started out well for Burnett but has seen him dip to a losing record, an ERA pushing 5, and a Major League worst 12 hit batters. He's allowed no earned runs in 5 starts but he's also allowed 6 or more earned runs 6 times. Through the end of May, Burnett was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Since, the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act has gone to the dark side as he's 1-6 with a 8.15 ERA and .965 OPS against in his past 8 starts. His last start ended early after his punching incident which he blamed on "falling" originally before being caught. I love the pies he brings and his swagger at times on the mound, but Burnett's lack of maturity at times is disheartening and his inability to compose himself is frustrating. Carroll writes about Burnett: "Burnett is certainly not the first pitcher to do something stupid. The meme of a pitcher hitting something with his pitching hand is so strong that it's a full scene in Bull Durham. Burnett cut his hands on a plexiglass lineup holder. Burnett is expected to be back for his next start, though there are some whispers that there could be a push-back if he doesn't make his throw day and show that the cuts won't be an issue." Not exactly what the Yankees were looking for from their #2 starter coming into the season. Burnett's problem is that when he's bad, he's really bad. In his wins, Burnett holds opposing hitters to a .191/.251/.231 line and in his losses it jumps to .363/.453/.701--meaning that in his losses, Burnett isn't even giving his team a good chance to win. Most disturbing for me about Burnett though is about in his results on the field where we've seen his K/9 drop from 9.56 in 2007 to 9.39 in 2006 to 8.48 in 2009 to only 6.71 this season. That's a big concern for the Yankees as Burnett's true value comes from his ability to finish guys off after he gets himself into jams. There is still some debate about whether this inability to gets misses with the bats are due to lost velocity or just not being able to locate the curveball as R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs suggested a month ago. But whatever is the culprit, this is not good news for the Yankees who are still on the hook for 3 more expensive years of Burnett after 2010. Best Month: April 3-0, 2.43 ERA, 20 K, 1.200 WHIP, .660 OPS against.
3. CC Sabathia. Sabathia's season started off slowly, but he's slowly developing into the dominant pitcher we saw down the stretch in 2009. Sabathia started off the year 4-3 in his first 11 starts with a 4.16 ERA through the end of May. And then when Burnett turned bad, Sabathia stepped it up. Since June 1st, Sabathia is 8-0 with a 2.03 ERA and the Yankees have won every one of his starts. More importantly with the other starters not always giving length, Sabathia has pitched at least 7 innings in each of his post-May starts. Now at 12-3 with a 3.13 ERA, Sabathia is having another year typical of his ace status. The 2007 Cy Young winner and 2009 ALCS MVP is setting himself up for another Cy Young run and trying to set the Yankees up for another playoff run. Sabathia has been dominant at home going 6-0 with a 2.53 ERA so far in 2010. The biggest issue with CC has to be the worry about his workload. Last season the Yankees were able to give him a little extra rest down the stretch to help keep him fresh for the playoffs. This year with two teams vying with the Yankees for a playing spot, that luxury may not exist. Sabathia is on pace to throw over 240 innings before October even arrives. Since 2005, Sabathia has thrown more innings than anyone in baseball and the worry is that at some point that wear and tear will show. And with decreasing K/9 totals and higher BB/9 totals, that may be the case. But Sabathia has been on an absolute roll (his no decision in his last start breaks up CC's 8 consecutive wins, although the team won 5-4) and the Yankees now hope to ride him into October for a second straight year. Best Month: June 5-0, 2.19 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.92 SO/BB, .521 OPS against.
4. Javier Vazquez. Vazquez's season is much like Sabathia's and Burnett's in that it's a tale of two seasons. Despite a gift win in relief against Boston in May, Vazquez was sitting at 3-5 with a 6.86 ERA and .908 OPS against through May and had been skipped a couple of times in the rotation. Things were looking quite dire when all of a sudden, Vazquez showed the promise the Yankees thought they were getting when they traded for Javy in the off-season. Since June 1, Vazquez is 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA and .545 OPS against. Overall numbers of 7-7 and 4.45 ERA aren't great, but the past month and a half have been a good to build on. Vazquez needs to keep the walks down (3.6 per 9 would be the highest since his rookie year) and increase the strikeouts (7.6 per 9 would be the lowest since Javy was in Pinstripes in 2004)--while all at the same time limiting the gopher balls (he's on pace for 27 home runs which while not horrible, isn't great). June seemed to go a long way in the pursuit of at least the first two as Javy increased his K/9 to 8.1 and his SO/BB to 2.92. Although those numbers are down a bit so far in July, he's only given up one run in 14 innings. The only way I think the Yankees are going to get through a stretch without Pettitte is Vazquez stepping up and taking a key role in the second-half rotation. Best Month: July 1-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.714 WHIP, .363 OPS against.
5. Phil Hughes. The Yankees have found a stud for their rotation but the rest of this year the goal has to be making sure to keep him within his innings limits so that he can continue to pitch at a high level for years to come. After being skipped a start, his June numbers looked terrible compared to the rest of the year (even though that skip came late in the month) and while he's looked a little better in July, he hasn't been as dominant as in his first two months. Right now he's on pace to pitch 180 innings which is probably the upper limit of what the Yankees want to give him for the year. If they take off days and give him days off, they can definitely bring down that number--but they risk also ruining his rhythm like they did last time they skipped a start. Hughes took the loss in the All-Star Game and while some Yankee fans were dreaming of coming back from the break with Lee in the rotation and Hughes in the bullpen (or in the rotation with Vazquez traded), the Yankees will have to forge forward with the troops they have for now. Hughes' dominant run as a set-up man in 2009 has bled over to his pitching in 2010, but he needs to continue to attack hitters and not let up at the bottom of lineups--one of the oddest and most frustrating part of Hughes' season is that the place in the lineup that has hit him the hardest is the 9th place hitter with an unacceptable .344/.432/.500 line against and 3 HR (which is more than any other spot in the lineup). If Hughes can get back on the track he was on earlier in the year, the Yankees will have some tough decisions to make regarding Hughes as the year goes along. But as Yankees fans, this is a great sign to see a young pitcher like Hughes establish himself. Best Month: May 4-1 3.03 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 4.88 SO/BB, .627 OPS against.

So with Cliff Lee off the table, do any starters make sense for the Yankees? Before the injury, they were in "Lee or bust" mode with acquiring starting pitching but this injury could alter their plans. Sergio Mitre is going to step back into the rotation where he made 9 starts last year and 2 this season. Other internal options include Chad Gaudin, Dustin Moseley, or Ivan Nova. But any of those guys out of the bullpen means another hole there (the Yankees are truly missing Alfredo Aceves right now). If the Yankees head to the trade market, Mike Axisa from MLBTradeRumors ran down the candidates today. ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted today that Brett Myers would make a lot of sense because they could start him now and move him into the bullpen when Pettitte came back--or they could go after a Jake Westbrook or a Ted Lilly type pitcher now and move Hughes to the bullpen in September.

I like Myers and his salary but I'm worried about what he'll do in the American League East. Lilly and Westbrook are both former Yankees and while it would be nice to have either one back, they're decreased production (and velocity from Lilly's side) are worrisome for a team like the Yankees. The truth is that if the Yankees don't feel like they'll be major upgrades from Mitre for a few weeks, I don't see a trade happening now. I think the Yankees will also pass on expensive guys like Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt as to not pay in prospects and money. Fausto Carmona or Ben Sheets could have been possible acquisition targets as well, but I don't see either team moving them for some reason.

Instead, I think the Yankees will wait until August, access where Pettitte and the rest of the staff is then, and if they need something, they can pick someone off waivers as they did with Gaudin last season. And this seems to be the philiosphy they will go with as Buster Olney tweeted that despite the injury, the Yankees top goal is to improve the bench and #2 goal is the bullpen. This makes a lot of sense to me. While the difference between Lee and another pitcher would have been great, will the marginal difference between Mitre and Myers be that great that it would be worth giving up a prospect over? I doubt it. The starting rotation is a bit worrisome, but I think the Yankees have the right people in place right now. They're probably just upset that Texas stepped in and grabbed Lee from their fingertips.

So what do you think of the Yankees starting rotation so far? Which pitcher gives you the biggest worry? Who would you like to see the Yankees acquire if anyone? Let us know in the comments below!