Will CC Sabathia Opt Out After 2011?

On a slow Friday in New York, I was perusing the Yankees' page of Cot's Baseball Contracts, a wonderful resource for player-by-player and team-by-team contract information. When I landed on their second-highest paid player, CC Sabathia, I was sort of surprised to see this bullet point:

It's possible CC may not wear Pinstripes after 2011 (ESPN)

• Sabathia may opt of of deal after 2011 season. 

I wasn't shocked because I didn't know about it, but, frankly, because I don't remember it being mentioned since Sabathia signed his big contract back in December of 2008. In fact, I forgot how important that opt-out clause was to Sabathia's contract being signed. According to Tim Brown and Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports (whose article was titled "Opt-out clause key to Sabathia going to Yankees"):

The deal, according to a source close to negotiations, gives Sabathia the right to opt out of the contract after the first three years, by which time he will have been paid $69 million. Sabathia appreciated the clause because it satisfied concerns he had about living in New York and the impact it might have on his wife and three children.

He will make his opt-out decision after the 2011 season with four years and $92 million remaining on the deal, at which time he could renegotiate, leave or stay.

Yahoo! Sports wasn't the only one; New York Daily News and almost every other news outlet mentioned the opt-out if not in the title of their article, then at least in the body. Since then, not much has been said about this opt-out clause. I searched on Google News for any mention of "Sabathia" and "opt-out" in the past year and there were 21 results, more than half of which seem to be about either A.J. Burnett or Alex Rodriguez opting out. So this is not a much-discussed topic to say the least. But should it be? Should we just assume that the hefty lefty and his family are happy in New York and they are going to stay? Or will CC Sabathia be hitting the open market at the end of next season at the age of 31?

I think a lot of that answer on Carsten Charles Sabathia depends on what happens with a former teammate, Clifton Phifer Lee. Cliff Lee is almost 2 years older than Sabathia but takes with him the Cy Young win, the "take-a-post-season-team-on-my-back" mentality, and the southpaw pitching pedigree that lines him up for a very large payday on the heels of his first free agency after this season.

The Yankees have been quite enamored with Lee for some time, thinking they had him acquired for top prospect Jesus Montero (and others) before the Mariners turned around and traded him to the Texas Rangers this past trade deadline. Lee was said to be bummed by the change of events and the Yankees were feeling much of the same, having lost out on their #1 target. But the good news for the Yankees and their fans is that Cliff Lee will be available this off-season, seems to still be close to Sabathia and is close to A.J. Burnett (supposedly) as well, both hailing from Arkansas (a small historical group of 148 Major Leaguers that includes current major leaguers Pat Burrell, Ryan Franklin, Torii Hunter and Travis Wood). The bad news for the Yankees is that Texas has a new ownership group and is sure to bid high to keep Lee away from other teams and make a splash in their own right with a big contract offer.

Why does this matter to CC Sabathia? Well, if Cliff Lee gets a large contract offer at age 32, Sabathia may expect the same thing. While some may argue that Lee has been the better pitcher the past two seasons (and there are definitely ways to support that argument) Sabathia not only has the World Series ring, but the better health record as well. Let's say that 32-year-old Cliff Lee gets the same contract that 28-year-old CC Sabathia got (7 years, $161 million, and just for arguments sake), don't you think that 31-year-old Sabathia will try to opt-out to get the same financial security (especially if he gets the Yankees deep into the playoffs this season and has another big year next year)?

There's also the question of Sabathia maybe wanting to return closer to his California roots. Would the Los Angeles Angels be willing to pony up to get Sabathia back home? Would they even have to come close to Sabathia's current contract to get CC, a guy who had to be persuaded with an extra $20 million and an opt-out clause to even come to New York?

It's possible, but MLB.com's Bryan Hoch doesn't think so, writing just after the World Series: "Sabathia put down roots in the clubhouse and is building his dream home in Alpine, N.J., a short ride over the George Washington Bridge from Yankee Stadium...As he cradled his son on his shoulders in the wet celebration after Game 6 on Wednesday, one thing appeared clear -- Sabathia wasn't planning on being anywhere but with the Yankees."

Now that could certainly change soon enough. As SI's Tom Verducci pointed out back in April, teams are locking up their own pitching early, leaving few to hit the free agent market. Even Cliff Lee's entrance to free agency was delayed by the Indians locking him up early on. With the lack of available top-flight pitching (behind Lee, the top starters to hit free agency this year may be ex-Yankees Javy Vazquez, Carl Pavano and Ted Lilly and next years features are Mark Buehrle, C.J. Wilson and maybe Roy Oswalt), Lee would expect to get a lot of money this off-season and Sabathia, if he opted out, could assume to make as much in the Winter of 2011-2012.

One of the only semi-recent discussion I found about this topic was from the always-on-top-of-it River Ave Blues whose Ben Kabak wrote about it back in February. Kabak dismisses the claim that the Sabathia opt-out clause is a "just in case" sort of deal, showing that the four players with opt-out clauses previously (A-Rod, A.J. Burnett, J.D Drew, and Aramis Ramirez) had them exercised. Ramirez is eligible to do the same thing after this season, but with his poor season and the fact that Adrian Beltre is hitting the market at the same time, seems unlikely to do so. Ramirez would be the first if he did not exercise it.

Would Sabathia be the second? That depends--again--on Lee (granted, it also may depend on the state of the Yankees--Jorge Posada will be a free agent that season and Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter are towards the end of their careers as well, but one would expect them to retool if needed). Lee will set the market for 30+-year-old left-handed starters in free agency. If the Yankees pony up a similar deal to Sabathia's, I would think that Sabathia would opt-out to try to get similar money (or at least to make sure his deal is guaranteed past age 35). Though Sabathia's annual salary of $23 million may dissuade him from trying to hit the market in a depressed economy, the market in two years may be better and Sabathia (a Cy Young candidate on his way to 20 wins this year with very little sign of slowing down) may want to see how much he's worth.

The truth is that Yankees fans should take no solace in the fact that Sabathia seems happy in New York or that he has succeeded here. He wouldn't be the first athlete to opt-out and the ability to earn another $60 million or so of guaranteed money would persuade many of us to forgo any form of "loyalty". So while we watch Sabathia plow through the stretch run in New York and while we'll wait to see if Cliff Lee will join him on the 2011 Yankees, Yankees fans should know that Sabathia may opt-out after 2011. It's not something we should easily forget.