 |
| AJ Burnett was a "black eye" for the Yankees (FanHouse) |
CC Sabathia
What I said worst-case would look like: "Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series...According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys."
What actually happened: Sabathia's arm and body held up another year's grind, starting an AL-leading 34 games, pitching 237.2 innings, and winning a Major League-leading 21 games. Sabathia was an All-Star, came in third in the Cy Young voting, and 13th in the MVP voting. He pitched about as well during the regular season as he did in his first year in Pinstripes (with less strikeouts but more groundballs). The issue for CC was when he hit the playoffs. After being stellar in 2009, he was so-so to bad in 2010. He started three times but only pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up a whopping 22 hits and 10 earned runs, striking out 15 but walking 7, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch, and being charged with a balk. Sabathia was a huge reason the Yankees made the playoffs (from August 7th-September 2nd he won every time he started), but for them to win the World Series in 2011, they need him to carry it through to the playoffs.
A.J. Burnett
What I said worst-case would look like: "Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn before he figured out how to harness the fastball/the first inning of Game 5 of the 2009 World Series...What if Burnett is not able to get out of trouble so easily? He may have gotten lucky in his first season in Pinstripes that walks didn't come back to bite him, but if he's not able to miss bats as easily, it could look a lot like the beginning of his Game 5 start in the World Series...complacency could kick in a year after winning a World Series and that would be trouble for the Yankees who still have four years left of Burnett"
What actually happened: Yeah...it was pretty bad. I don't know if it was complacency or ineptitude or mechanics or mentality or emotional state or whether he is just Southern (a pretty common reasoning from the New York media) but A.J. Burnett was pretty awful in 2010. He went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA, walking 78, striking out only 145, hitting a Major League-leading 19 batters, and having a career-worst WHIP of 1.511. After July, Burnett was 1-7 with a 6.61 ERa and .874 OPS against. This output led to a 1.3 fWAR, -0.1 bWAR and for Burnett to lose a few starts. His one start in the 2010 playoffs was going swimmingly until he gave up a home run to the slugger Bengie Molina in the ALCS and the Yankees never seem to recover from that. The Yankees have to hope this was just an anomaly for Burnett as he is signed for 3 more seasons. Oh, and he had a mysterious black eye.
Andy Pettitte
What I said worst-case would look like: "Andy's second half of 2008. Andy Pettitte pitched well in 2008 before injuries finally caught up with him and his injured arm could only muster a 4-7 record with a 5.35 ERA in 13 starts in the second half....George Steinbrenner III wanted the Yankees to let Pettitte go after the 2003 seasons because of concerns about his arm holding up and Yankee haters hope this is the year it finally goes"
What actually happened: Pettitte was actually having an amazing All Star season at 38 before a groin injury caught up with him in mid-July and he didn't return until late-September. Pre-injury Pettitte was 11-2 in 17 starts (Yankees went 14-3 in his starts over that stretch), pitching 113.1 innings at a 2.70 ERA, and holding opponents to a .654 OPS. Pettitte wasn't the same pitcher when he first came back but seemed to get everything straightened out by the playoffs where he pitched twice, throwing exactly 7 innings in both starts, giving up 5 hits and 2 runs in both. So overall Pettitte's arm held up but his injuries led to a tough second-half. Overall, I'd consider the year a large success for Pettitte and if it is his last year, he went out as an All Star.
Javier Vazquez
What I said worst-case would look like: "2004 ALCS Game 7. The worst thing that Javy Vazquez can do is remind Yankee fans at all of what he looked like during his last game in the Bronx. Many Yankee fans (including me) are taking a leap of faith that his being back in Pinstripes won't bring back those memories. We hope his season in the Bronx wasn't as bad as it seemed, that he was injured during the second half, and that it was a statistical anomaly in an otherwise consistent career. We're hoping that a trip back to the American League and to the best hitting division and one of the best hitting home parks isn't going to make Vazquez turn into a homerun machine. We're also hoping that Ozzie Guillen is wrong that Vazquez isn't a big game pitcher. But if we're wrong, it could be real trouble. I can't see the Yankee Stadium faithful having a large amount of tolerance for a slow start from Vazquez and I doubt he'll be much good for the Yankees if that becomes the case."
What actually happened: It was really, really bad. I actually thought the Vazquez trade was a shrewd one by the Yankees but I was totally wrong here. Vazquez not only didn't provide them the quality innings they were looking for from him, but he actually proved to be about as bad as Burnett. The Yankees tried a lot of different methods to get Vazquez on track including skipping starts and moving him to the bullpen but Vazquez just never got it going. Vazquez's fastball velocity dipped, his breaking balls hung, and his pinpoint control from a year prior was gone. No matter how you track it, Vazquez didn't even reach above replacement level and the only thing the Yankees got from the Vazquez deal was Boone Logan and a compensation pick. Awful.
Joba Chamberlain
What I said worst-case would look like: "Mike Francesa's biggest fear as he's always worried the Yankees "wasted" Joba's "God-given talents" by trying to use him as a starter and that he won't be the Joba of his rookie year if they try to move him back now."
What actually happened: It was pretty bad. Joba lost the starting role and then couldn't really hang on to any bullpen role for a long period of time. Now that the Yankees have signed Rafael Soriano and have a hole at starter, the opportunity would seem to be there to move Joba back to the rotation but don't bet on it. It looks like Joba's ship has sailed.
Phil Hughes
What I said worst-case would look like: "Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy of 2008...In 2008, the Yankees handed two rookies, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy starting spots. They went on to win zero games and struggle mightly, including an injury to Hughes that stunted his development. Even if the Yankees start Hughes this year, he will be subjected to the same types of "rules" that Joba has had the past few years and if he reacts the same way as Joba did to the skipped starts, it could be trouble in the Bronx. In 2008, Hughes went 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA and 11.4 H/9. For his career he's 8-9 with a 5.22 ERA as a starter."
What actually happened: Hughes had a great season and put a lot of this worry to bed. The Yankees learned from their mistakes with the Joba Rules and made the Hughes Rules a lot easier for the pitcher to handle. Hughes is now set up to be the Yankees #2 starter next season after a hugely successful year in which he won 18 games and made the All-Star Team. Hughes pitched great in the ALDS, throwing a 7-inning shutout in his only start, but he got bombed in two ALCS starts as the Yankees failed to advance.
Sergio Mitre
What I said worst-case would look like: "What, a 6.79 ERA and 12.4 H/9 isn't bad enough? The Yankees are hoping that two years removed from major arm surgery Mitre is a better pitcher than he was last season. But if he isn't and the Yankees are forced to give him a starting pitching role for a lengthy amount of time, the Yankees are in deep trouble. So, really, seeing Mitre start 15-20 games would be a problem...a big problem. It would almost make Yankees fans yearn for the days of Sidney Ponson. Ugh."
What actually happened: The Meat Try only started 3 games but overall he had a solid season for the Yankees with a 3.33 ERA in 54 innings (though his FIP of 4.69 suggested he didn't pitch as well as his ERA showed). Mitre got a few spot starts during the season and gave up a majority of his runs in two of those. Mitre is actually probably the favorite for the 5th starter job right now which, despite his okay 2010, is pretty scary to think about.
Chad Gaudin
What I said worst-case would look like: "Aaron Small in 2006. Aaron was a Small acquisition for the Yankees in 2005 but played a huge roll by going 10-0 with a 3.20 ERA when the Yankees needed him most. He came back to the team in 2006 and went 0-3 with a 8.46 ERA and was pretty awful. Chad Gaudin was a small pickup for the Yankees who did very well for them in his first year in the Bronx. But expecting Gaudin to start for a length of time this year would be a mistake, just like Mitre. And even though I have more confidence in Gaudin, it's like having the confidence that an Apple IIe computer will be a sufficient computer for a whole year just because it once worked."
What actually happened: Gaudin was let go by the Yankees before the end of Spring Training and went to the Athletics where he was horrible. The Yankees brought him back but he never started a game. Even if relief he was so-so (4.50 ERA in 48 innings) to horrible (his FIP was 6.25 and he gave up over 2 HR per 9 innings). Gaudin was an Apple IIe which Joe Girardi kept running out there to pitch remembering the good ole days of Number Munchers and Oregon Trail. Thankfully, it looks like The Chad may be gone for good.
That's it for the starters, we'll look at the Worst Case Scenrio for the relievers and the bench in our next segment.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment