Five Things I Was Dead Wrong About in Major League Baseball

I know that I haven't gotten to blog a lot lately (and I apologize for that), but I'm back here with a mea culpa--one some really bad calls I made so far this baseball season:

I doubled ouched on my Jose Bautista prediction (NYT)

1. Jose Bautista was a one-hit wonder. Ouch. Double ouch when you consider that I had him in a keeper league and DROPPED him in order to keep Nick Swisher. I thought Bautista was the second coming of Brady Anderson and not the second coming of Barry Bonds. Bautista actually reminds me a lot of another Blue Jay, Carlos Delgado, who looked like he was just going to be an okay Major Leaguer--and probably someone who would have to platoon--until something kicked in and you just couldn't throw anything over the plate to him. Bautista has to be eating Popeye's spinach at this point as these results really have no explanation. I'm still waiting for the other shoe to fall, but until then, I'll just watch in wonder for a guy who is much more than a one-hit wonder.

2. John Danks was a Cy Young candidate. Well he's 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA. Holy crapola. I have four fantasy baseball teams and drafted him on all four. And I still have him. I think this is a fluke. I wasn't the only one sending praise Danks way. Now, it's really just trying to figure out what the heck happened here. Some of this is bad luck, but Danks hasn't been an ace this season by any measure. At this point, he's become the Nintendo cartridge that you would blow on for like 20 minutes knowing that it probably still wasn't going to return to normal. You wonder if this guy may just need a change of scenery from Chicago to reboot his career, but right now he's been more Cy Yuck than Cy Young.

3. The Yankees weren't going to be able to rely on Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon.

Read more>>

NYaT Gives Out Our MLB Awards: National League

We did our American League picks earlier today. Now let's look at those award winners (or losers) from the Senior Circuit:

Joey Votto has been huge for the Reds in '10 (CBS Sportsline)

National League MVP: Joey Votto.
Followed by:  tied for second Albert Pujols and Carlos Gonzalez (Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard and Troy Tulowitzki).

It's amazing to think back to the fact that the only way Votto made the All-Star Team this year was because of a fan vote for the last spot. Who were his biggest competition? Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Zimmerman, two people he'll be battling for to win the MVP this season. Amazing. Albert Pujols is just having another one of his years but with both the Cards and Rockies not making the playoffs, I think that Pujols and CarGo are out. Same going for Adrian Gonzalez who had a fantastic year for a surprise Padre team, but went flat the last week of the season as his team did the same. But Votto (.424 OBP and .600 SLG lead the league, .324 average was second) has been fantastic for the surprise Reds, overtaking Pujols' Cards and winning the division for the first time in a long time. Amazingly, according to FanGraphs, Votto hit ZERO infield fly balls all season. None. Unless Luis Castillo is on the other team, infield fly balls are the one guarantee out (outfield fly balls can find grass or go beyond the wall and ground balls can find a hole but infield pops find gloves almost all the time). The one thing working against Votto and CarGo, though? Home parks that favor hitters. That didn't stop every single one of our voters, from putting Joey Votto first on their ballots making him a unanimous pick for NL MVP.

National League LVP: Jason Bay.
Followed by:  Melky Cabrera and a tie for third between Jeff Francouer, Nyjer Morgan, Oliver Perez and Pedro Feliz (Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Nate McLouth, and Pablo Sandoval also receiving votes).

Read more>>

NYaT Gives Out Our MLB Awards: American League

What a year 2010 has been. No-hitters, perfect games, great rookies, saying good-bye to veterans, and watching playoff races come down to the very last day of the season. Well now that it's all over and we're turning the calendar to playoff baseball, here we are at NYaT to hand out our postseason awards to who we think is most deserving (panel consisting of Ben W, Jay, Ben P, Ari, Elissa, and myself). First up, the American League:

Hamilton looks to take home the AL MVP (Cleveland Plain-Dealer)

American League MVP: Josh Hamilton.  
Followed by: Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria.

Despite missing nearly all of September, Hamilton wins this award in a run-away. He got 4 out of 5 first place votes (Ben P put Robinson Cano ahead of Hamilton) and took home our crown. Hamilton had a very similar season to Joe Mauer's 2009 MVP season and although Robinson Cano and Miguel Cabrera were very, very good, Hamilton was better. The Rangers went 21-6 in June and Hamilton hit .454/.482/.815 for the month with 9 HR and 31 RBI. MVP material, indeed. This was a tough race to pick, though, with many good candidates not even listed such as Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and Carl Crawford. But Cano, Cabrera and Longoria were the only competition that Hamilton really did have for this race.

American League LVP: Chone Figgins.  
Followed by: Brandon Wood, and a tie for third between A.J. Burnett, Mike Cameron, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell (Aaron Hill, Carlos Pena, Franklin Gutierrez, Garrett Atkins, and Matt Wieters also receiving votes).

It was a relatively close race between Figgins and fellow-AL West disappointment Brandon Wood, but Figgins huge contract gets him the "win" here. It really wasn't all Figgins' fault, but after being the one offensive free agent signing, he gets the blame which could have gone to Jose Lopez, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, or the rest of the Mariners historically anemic offense (minus Ichiro). Figgins was far from the worst, but a .259/.340/.306 line and highly negative UZR was far from what the Mariners were expecting when they gave him 4 years, $36 million (with an easily vesting option for another year). FanGraphs put Figgins worth at 0.5 WAR while Baseball-Reference was a lot more generous at 1.3 WAR. Either way, it's part of the reason that the Mariners have cleaned house in the clubhouse and have started to change around front-office personnel as well.

American League Cy Young: Felix Hernandez.  
Followed by: CC Sabathia and David Price (Jon Lester also receiving a vote).

Read more>>

Adding Another to the Team (and a few links)

We're not waiting until September 1st to expand our rosters here at NYaT. I'm happy to announce our newest permanent blogger (and our new Official Mets Blogger), Elissa Glucksman. E recently guest blogged about 5 reasons the Mets could make the playoffs in 2011 and before that had previewed Citi Field 2.0 for NYaT. Elissa even participated in a triathlon with former Mets manager, Bobby Valentine, as a partner. We're excited to see what else she has in store for us (there is some talk of Sarah and Elissa doing a blog series of sports from the feminine point of view). Please join me in welcoming Elissa to the NYaT team.

Omar Minaya will feel the wrath of new blogger, Elissa (NYDN)

Now for a few links:

• Someone else is keeping track of that whole CC Sabathia opt-out (as well as Joe Girardi's contract situation): Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues. Moshe Mandel of TYU tells us why Girardi isn't going anyplace.
• SI's Joe Posnanski nails arm injuries and pitching prospects in this great blog post. Then The Common Man at The Platoon Advantage takes down Rob Dibble.
• NoMass scores another great interview (this time with Yankees' SVP, Mark Newman) and talks about the Yankees farm system. Then Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus writes "just add [Brett Marshall] to the long list of Yankee pitching prospects who have taken a step in the right direction." I like the sound of that.
• Last week Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus handicapped the AL MVP race and the NL MVP race. It will be a close one.
• Rebecca of This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes on Kerry Wood. Sam Borden of LoHud on Tiger Woods and Derek Jeter. Aaron Gleeman of HardballTalk on the Yankees' "phantom disabled list". FanGraphs' Dave Cameron on the Minnesota Twins. Flip Flop Fly Ball on the many Yankees logos. Ben Kabak of River Ave Blues on HOPE week.
• The Big Lead on why Tony LaRussa is an idiot. Wall Street Journal's Brian Costa on why Ivan (Nova) is anything but terrible. ESPN's Jayson Stark with everything you would want to know about Roy Oswalt's night in left field.
• Eastbound and Down Season 2 (I can't wait)

Javier Vazquez is officially below replacement level according to FanGraphs (H/T Jay). More later.

Pujols Unanimous But Some More Curious Votes

Albert Pujols was unanimous as the 2009 National League MVP which means no writer pulled a Keizo Konishi and voted someone else less deserving for the award. There were, however, quite a few head scratchers:

• Chase Utley, despite being the second best player in the National League (I mean his WAR was 7.6, which was higher than Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez), finished 8th. Amazingly, not one writer could put Utley 2nd place on a ballot and yet they had plenty of room for Andre Ethier (two 2nd place votes) and Derrek Lee (1 2nd place votes...but no others above 5th). Utley wasn't even listed on every ballot and 3 writers thought he was 9th best and one thought he was the 10th best. His teammate, Ryan Howard, finished 133 points higher than him. I just don't get the disrespect for Utley.

• Someone jackass voted Yunel Escobar 5th(!?!?). That was his only ballot.

• Some joker voted Jeremy Affedlt 10th. Could you take this voting any less seriously? Affeldt had a great season...but he wasn't even the best reliever on his team.

• Miguel Tejada was voted 7th yet Ryan Zimmerman only got one vote and that was for 10th place. I understand Zimmerman played on a losing team...but so did Tejada!

• Huston Street also finished ahead of Ryan Zimmerman making him the only closer on this list. 
  

• Andre Ethier sure was helped by his walkoffs. I think that Matt Kemp is the better Dodger OF. And I'm really not sold on Ethier as the 6th best player in the National League.

• Chase Utley (shaking my head)
  

Any other gripes?  Let us know below in the comments (picture from UPI)

Trivia Tuesday: MVP Edition

When Albert Pujols takes home the Most Valuable Player trophy today, he'll be the 10th player to collect his 3rd MVP award.

Can you name the 9 who already have 3 MVPs?

Put your answer in the comments below and I'll reveal the correct answers later tonight.

Mauer Gets MVP But Writers Have Some Explaining To Do

Well the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) got most of the awards right including Joe Mauer winning the 2009 American League Most Valuable Player Award. He was listed on 27 of 28 ballots as the first place candidate. The other vote? Not Derek Jeter or Mark Teixeira or Kendry Morales or Kevin Youkilis....

It was for Miguel Cabrera. MIGUEL CABRERA!

This is the same guy who was out late drinking with the opposing team the night before his team's most important game of the season, the guy who was so out of control once he got home that his wife had to call the cops on him, they same guy who experts said could never have been sober by game time, and yes, the same guy who did this all while his team was spiraling out of a playoff spot. Inexcusable.

As I said at the beginning of October: "Miguel Cabrera...decided it was more important to get drunk and party with the White Sox players until all hours of the morning while his team was fighting for a playoff spot. Then he came home at 5 AM 3 times over the legal limit for driving, woke up his child and his wife, got into a physical altercation with his wife (complete with some nice scratches), and had to go to the police station because he was "very uncooperative and highly intoxicated". What did he do the next two days, the two most important days for the Tigers? He went 0-4 and left four runners on base in the first game and went 0-3 in the last game. That's not being an MVP. Say what you want about A-Rod, but he'd never do this. The Detroit Free Press has more details and Shysterball talks more about the fact this is his second police incident in about a month."

I listed Miguel Cabrera as my Least Valuable Player and said this last week: "[Cabrera] would have been a top-7 MVP candidate and then he decided to go out and drink with the opposing team before the biggest part of his team's season. They didn't make the playoffs and I hold him responsible. If any writers voted for him because they didn't wait until the end of the season, they should be ashamed of themselves."

And yet some writer put him FIRST on an MVP ballot. Voting privileges should be revoked from that writer. According to Ken Davidoff (via Twitter): "Keizo Konishi of Kyodo News, based in Seattle, voted Miguel Cabrera first."

Some other voting head scratchers:

• 16 players finished above Zack Greinke who made it only onto 4 ballots (that's 14%) and Felix Hernandez got only one vote. 

• Finishing ahead of King Felix? Placido Polanco(?!?!) who hit .285/.331/.396 which gave him an adjusted OPS of 88, or more than 10% below league average.

• Jason Bay finished 7th thanks to a 3rd and a 4th place vote. Did those two people hand in their ballots before the All-Star break?

• A-Rod got a 3rd place vote but was left off of 21 ballots. Ummm...?

• Ben Zobrist got less than half of the points that Jason Bay did despite Zobrist's WAR (according to FanGraphs) leading the Major Leagues at 8.6 and Jason Bay finishing at 61st with a 3.5 WAR (which was below Nick Swisher).

• Derek Jeter has one 8th, one 9th and one 10th place vote. How exactly did those writers figure out that 7, 8 and 9 people were more valuable than Jetes?

• Lastly, Robinson Cano finished ahead of Evan Longoria. I'm a Yankees fan, but seriously?

Curious some of your other thoughts. Please post in the comments below. A summary of all the voting can be found on the BBWAA website.

Update 2:50 PM: Ummm....I think someone should check this guy's bank account to see if he was paid off by Cabrera: @jasoncollette: With that 1st place vote, Miggy got pushed up to 4th place and got $200,000 bonus. Without it, no bonus. Wow

My MLB Awards Picks Part 2

We looked at Part 1 of the MLB Awards yesterday. Here are the top players in baseball...as far as I'm concerned at least.


American League MVP

1. Joe Mauer - Not even a competition. He led the league in all the slashes (BA/OBP/SLG)--as a catcher. He also led his team to the playoffs which ended any type of argument one could have against him.
   
2. Derek Jeter - He won't win again this year, but this time, it's justified. He had a fabulous bounce-back season both on offense and defense as he went back to being the leadoff hitter on the best offense on the best team in baseball.
   
3. Zack Grienke - I know his team didn't do well and I know that he's a pitcher, but where would his team have been without his effort? Amazing season.
   
4. Kevin Youkilis - I could have flip-flopped him and Teixeira but I felt like the Red Sox player doesn't get his due, especially since he filled in at 3B and even took the bullet out in LF when they needed him. That's the definition of an MVP.
   
5. Mark Teixeira - Not a bad first season in the Bronx. The one thing that hurts him? He didn't take off until A-Rod showed up (well that, and the stadium he plays his home games in). But the guy was in the top-10 of most offensive categories and led the league in HR and RBIs and played a spectacular first despite what any UZR numbers will tell you.
   
6. Ben Zobrist - Surprised to see him on here especially above teammate Evan Longoria? Well most would be. But the guy led the entire majors in Wins Over Replacement (WAR) ahead of Mauer, Albert Pujols or any other hitter. And like I said with Youkilis, his value was playing wherever the team needed him--and playing that position well.
   
7. Evan Longoria - Another fabulous season for a guy who will perennially be on this list. He not only does it with his bat--he's great on defense as well. And he's supposedly the face of MLB'10 (the video game) so he's steadily growing in popularity as well
   
8. Felix Hernandez - Like Grienke, you have to ask where his team would be without him pitching for them. He may have been better than Grienke when you consider who he beat and he single-handedly kept his team in the playoff race for most of the season.
   
9. Kendry Morales - This team lost Teixeira and survived because of what Morales did at first. You could have gone with Chone Figgins or Bobby Abreu here and had an argument, but Morales was a big reason they had any offense.
   
10. Alex Rodriguez - Just look at the Yankees record from when he arrived back on the team and tell me that's not the definition of an MVP. It at least deserves some votes.

American League Least Valuable Player

1. Miguel Cabrera - This guy would have been a top-7 MVP candidate and then he decided to go out and drink with the opposing team before the biggest part of his team's season. They didn't make the playoffs and I hold him responsible. If any writers voted for him because they didn't wait until the end of the season, they should be ashamed of themselves.
   

National League MVP

1. Albert Pujols - Not many are even close to his stratosphere. The guy is a beast. He doesn't get his due on defense either where he should be a perennial Gold Glover. I have a feeling one day he will challenge for a Triple Crown.
2. Chase Utley - I know I said not many are close to Pujols, but Utley is realllllly close. When you factor in his defensive prowess, he actually had a better season than Derek Jeter. And although it doesn't count with the MVP voting, his World Series performance just proved that he's for real.
3. Hanley Ramirez - The guy is a really good hitter and not as bad defensively as many think. I wonder if Florida will look to trade him soon and what type of package Ramirez will bring back considering he's developing into one of the Majors top players
4. Pablo Sandoval - Another "who?" goes up from most people here but he was the top hitter on San Francisco. Well, he was their only hitter. They would have never been in the hunt for a playoff spot without Sandoval there.
   
5. Prince Fielder - He's the second best hitter in the league and makes a really nice tandem with Ryan Braun that compares to any 3-4 punch in the baseball.
6. Troy Tulowitzki - It was Jim Tracy's arrival, but it was also Tulo's resurgence that caused the Rockies turnaround. And he was one of the best players in the league from the shortstop position on a team that lost Matt Holliday.
7. Adrian Gonzalez - The only hitter on San Diego and plays a really good defense as well. He might not be there to start the next season but whoever picks him up (Boston?) will be getting a really, really good player.
8. Ryan Zimmerman - Does it with the bat and the glove and has developed into the franchise player Washington thought they had. Now if they can only get him some other players...
9. Tim Lincecum - May not be the Cy Young and did have Matt Cain as well...but does his team even compete for a playoff position without him? Amazing what he's done at such a young age.
10. Matt Kemp - I could have gone with either Cardinal pitcher here or Ryan Braun, but I don't know how we could have no Dodger on the list especially one as valuable as Kemp was to the Dodger success (a WAR of 5.0)--no offense to Andre Ethier 

National League Least Valuable Player

1. Alfonso Soriano/Milton Bradley - The Cubs were supposed to compete thanks to the money they spent on those two and they were beyond awful. And they're untradeable. That A-Rod-Soriano trade looks better by the day.
   

Who Will Win The World Series MVP?

When the World Series ends an MVP will have to be declared. Let's take a look at the candidates:

Yankees hitters:

• Johnny Damon is tied for the series lead with 8 hits, has scored a team-high 5 runs and is 3-3 in stolen base attempts. His 2-out approach in Game 4 and his double steal puts him in the spotlight and a big game tonight to seal the deal could give him the MVP.

• Derek Jeter also has 8 hits in the series and if he has a big hit to win the game tonight or picks up 3+ hits, you could see him sneaking in and winning it. Mostly because of "intangibles". But the GIDP in Game 5 will hurt him. But winning the MVP would be very Jeterian.
  

• Hideki Matsui will be back in the lineup tonight and the Yankees have missed him in their regularly. Matsui has an awesome .556/.600/1.222 line (yes, that's a 1.822 OPS) with 2 HR this postseason and if he keeps up that fire tonight, he has a chance of winning it. Being only available to pinch hit for all three games in Philly may hurt him

• A-Rod just missed out on winning the ALCS MVP but he has a chance to take home the World Series MVP with a big Game 6. He has had a ton of big hits this postseason and few more may vault him over the top. His no-show in Games 1 and 2 may hurt the cause, however. If he does win, I wonder if he has to split it with Kate Hudson?

Phillies Hitters:

• Chase Utley is having a monster World Series. I came in praising the job he has done without as much critical acclaim as Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins or many of his other teammates, but Utley is truly a beast. As Sporting News and Big League Stew point out, Utley could win it without his team winning the World Series for only the second time in MLB history. If he hits another home run tonight, he may seal it.

• Jayson Werth has a very outside shot of winning it. But let's say he hits two more home runs against Andy Pettitte tonight to win Game 6 and produces big in a Game 7 win...don't you have to think about giving it to him at that point? That also means that Chase Utley can't do any more damage than he's done now so this is a very outside shot

Yankees Pitchers:

• Andy Pettitte could win it with an 8 inning, 1 run game tonight (or something like that). That would give him two out of four wins for the World Series, including yet another clincher.

• Mariano Rivera could win it with a big save tonight. Let's say he gets 7 outs tonight. That would give him 3 saves and 6 innings pitched. I think he would have earned it, too.
  

• CC Sabathia would need a huge Game 7 to win it. But imagine if he finishes the World Series with a huge Game 7 and a low ERA. He would have pitched 3 really good games for the Yankees, though I wonder if he'll get punished for getting an L and an ND in the other two.
  

Phillies Pitchers:

• Cliff Lee could win it by coming out of the bullpen tomorrow night and closing out the World Series for the Phillies. If he does that a la Randy Johnson, I think you have to give him the hardware.

• Ryan Madson is a dark sleeper here but let's say he gets two huge saves in the final two games. That would mean he would pitch in 6 of 7 games and get 3 saves. I don't know if it'll ever come to that, but it would be an interesting choice.
  

Who do you think is going to win it? I've put a new poll up on the right. Put your vote there but let us know in the comments why you chose that player.

Poll: Who Has Been The Yankees 2009 MVP?

After the amazing sweep of the Red Sox, I have a new poll over to the right: who is the Yankees 2009 MVP. Come to the blog and vote for Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, Mo or Phil Hughes.

I'm torn on this one. What do you think?

Here's the credentials:

Derek Jeter - this guy has been great. He's improved his defense and he's had a bounce-back season at the bat. He's been the lead-off man and captain for this offensive machine

Mark Teixeira - leads AL in HR and has been dominating since April. He's been one of the biggest differences since last season. Johnny Damon says he should be at the forefront of the MVP conversation.

A-Rod - this team is the best in baseball since he's been back and despite going a career-long time without a home run, his HR and RBI's have been clutch this year, including the one on Friday night which set tone for the weekend

Mariano Rivera - one hiccup in Boston but otherwise he's been dominant. Walked his 7th guy of the season today. Yes, he's only walked seven all season. He's also struck out 10 batters per 9 innings (something he hasn't done since 1996) and leads the Majors in saves.

Phil Hughes - the season turned when Hughes took to the bullpen like the Yankees 2007 season turned when Joba Chamberlain went out there. He was their biggest mid-season "acquisition".

Vote to to the right!

Some post-game reactions:

-Peter Abraham says that Hughes wasn't available (and be glad he doesn't abuse his relievers) but Damon and Teixeira bailed them out with big shots. That's now an amazing 31 out of 41 for the Yankees.

-Bronx Banter calls it a Midsummer Night's Dream Come True

-WasWatching on tonight's game where Damon and Teixeira set a record for back-to-back jacks (amazing as that is)

-River Ave Blues says "Game. Set. Match. Sweep"

-Baseball Musings talks about the Yankees come back and mentions Joe Morgan's snide comments about getting on base. It really was ridiculous tonight. He couldn't understand why Nick Swisher would want to get hit by a pitch.