Chan Ho Park showed last season that he was a much better pitcher as a reliever than a starter (and according to Sherman, Park is not in contention for the Yankees' 5th starter job). Via Baseball-Reference, in Park's 7 starts, he had a 7.29 ERA, 1.740 WHIP, 5.7 SO/9 and 1.24 SO/BB. In his 38 games out of the bullpen, Park had a 2.52 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 9.4 SO/9 and 3.25 SO/BB. Park was even better in the World Series against the Yankees, pitching 3.1 innings in 4 games, and giving up 2 hits, no runs and striking out 3. The Phillies also acquired Park after seeing him in the playoffs as he had pitched for Joe Torre's Dodgers in the 2008 playoffs against the Phillies.
It seems that performance put Park on the Yankees radar. And when his price continued to fall (Park had rejected a $3.25 million offer to stay with the Phillies), the Yankees pounced. As Sherman points out, the Yankees traded away Brian Bruney because they believed he would make too much money in arbitration. Well Bruney made $1.5 M and all that Park is guaranteed is $1.2 M. And I much rather have Park than Bruney. Especially considering that the Yankees have lost their entire Asian presence this season with Hideki Matsui in Anaheim and Chien-Ming Wang in Washington.
From Sherman: "As a reliever, the Yankees noticed, Park’s stuff played up; his fastball reached 96 mph and his curveball remained crisp. The Yanks also liked that Park had a reputation as a good teammate who works hard to stay in shape." (Whoa, someone pitched better as a reliever than a starter...could this be a pattern?) This could mean the Yankees will feel comfortable sending the loser of the Joba/Hughes 5th starter battle to the minors instead of the bullpen, but Sherman doesn't think so. Although Park's overall ERA last season was 4.43, FanGraphs has his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 3.49. Park's FIP as a relief pitcher in 2009 was 2.10 and as FanGraphs' Dave Cameron points out, Park has been remarkably effective. Park's value last year was 1.5 WAR or $7.0 M. It's a pretty low-cost obligation for a Yankees team that is being built for October.
The Bad:
The Yankees have a habit of acquiring pitchers from the National League who have had success there and found out it doesn't translate to the American League. In Park's career, he's gone 98-72 with a 3.99 ERA, 1.346 WHIP, 8.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9 and 1.97 SO/BB in the National League and 22-23 with a 5.79 ERA, 1.610 WHIP, 10.0 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.5 BB/9, 6.6 SO/9, and 1.47 SO/BB in the American League. Although this time in the American League was spent with Texas and as a starter, this has to set off some alarm bells as he moves from the NL (L)east to the AL (B)east.
David Pinto at Baseball Musings points out that Park has walked a lot of batters over his career with a good-- but not great--strikeout rate. That's the type of thing that's a recipe for disaster and the Yankees have gone through quite a few of these type of guys in the past few seasons. Also, the Yankees have to hope that the last two seasons aren't a fluke. As Baseball Prospectus wrote after the 2008 season: "The Astros took a flier on Chan Ho Park after the Mets released him in June and were rewarded with 18 home runs in 84 innings at Triple-A Round Rock. He's done." Not really a great endorsement for future success.
Speaking of "not a great endorsement for future success", FanGraphs' projections don't look too good for Park. Bill James has Park predicted to lower his K/9 and raise his BB/9, WHIP, ERA, and HR/9. Marcel and CHONE are a bit more optimistic on Park but none of them have him repeating his success from last season in 2010. And this is a guy who isn't good with men on base either, which isn't the best sign for a reliever. The other thing that won't be repeated? Park's awesome beard which made him a rare bearded Asian and I think was a pretty bad-ass look.
The biggest problem, though? The Yankees had a crowded bullpen without Park and now have too many spots. I don't mind competition, but bringing in another $1+ M reliever into a crowded bullpen isn't always the best strategy. The Yankees have Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre (and Aceves is the only one with minor-league option) who are very similar pitchers as well as the probable loser of the 5th starter battle, Dave Robertson, Damaso Marte, Mark Melancon, Boone Logan, and others behind Mariano Rivera. If you figure that the Yankees take 11 pitchers and have Rivera penciledEven if Park sucks, the Yankees have guaranteed money going to him and cannot send him down to the minors which means they're probably going to keep running him out there--a trap they fell into with Kyle Farnsworth, Brian Bruney, and Steve Karsay (among others) in the past. And judging from his disaster of a time in Texas, Park has a chance to fall into that trap. It also means the Yankees are over budget again unless they can find a taker for Sergio Mitre ($850,000) or Chad Gaudin ($2.95 M) who are both now expendable.
Conclusion
I like--but don't love--this signing. One year and bargain-basement money make it palatable, but I wonder what this means about the faith the Yankees have in the rest of the bullpen. That being said, if the Yankees use Park correctly--against righties who have only hit him at a .227/.311/.355 mark over his career (making him a great righty compliment to Marte) and without men on base where he has a 3.23 FIP, compared with 5.03 with men on base--then this could be a very good signing for the Yankees who have been doing a good job bargain hunting this off-season. I like to have faith in Brian Cashman's moves, but I'm reserving judgment on this one until we see some results.
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thank you for your interesting analysis. let's wait and see together! and really looking forward to your next analysis about this signing. :)
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