UConn 1 win away from first BCS berth

Before a sellout crowd at Rentschler Field on Saturday afternoon, the Connecticut Huskies defeated the Cincinnati Bearcats, 38-17.  In doing so, UConn generated some votes for a Top-25 ranking.  But that's besides the point right now.  The Huskies are in first place in the Big East and they control their own destiny: if they win the season finale at South Florida on December 4, they win the Big East (thanks to having tiebreakers over both WestVa and Pitt) and take the conference's AQ bid to the Fiesta Bowl.  Needless to say, this would be UConn's first-ever BCS berth.

UConn's MVP: Jordan Todman (H/T Hartford Courant)

But really, the Big East is wide open right now.  6 of its 8 teams are bowl eligible.  3 different teams could win the conference.  And UConn, which is just 1-4 on the road, must beat South Florida in Tampa next weekend if it wants to emerge as champs.  That is not going to be easy, mind you.  The Bulls have won 4 of their past 5 games, including a 23-20 road win over Miami (FL) on Saturday.

So what can UConn do to help their chances of beating South Florida?



     1.  Establish the running game

In the Cincy game, Jordan Todman, the 2nd leading rusher in FBS, rushed 31 times for 175 yards and 3 TDs.  This type of performance helps UConn control the clock and wear down opposing defenses.  Connecticut's running attack is also well balanced, in that next year's likely starter, Robbie Frey, does a nice job spelling for Todman (15 carries for 48 yards and 1 TD yesterday).  This keeps UConn's legs fresher than their opponents'.  The other advantage?  Todman and Frey don't fumble very much.  In fact, the entire Huskies team has only lost 9 fumbles in 11 games.  Which brings me to...

     2.  Maintain positive takeaway ratio

Desmond Conner of the Hartford Courant put it best: UConn's turnover margin is making a difference.  Is it a coincidence that UConn beat Cincinnati in a game where they forced 5 turnovers yet only gave up the ball once?  Not at all.  UConn turned those 5 turnovers into 21 points, which just so happens to equal their margin of victory.  So that turnover margin proved to be critical.

Speaking of which, Connecticut is in the top 10 in the nation in turnover margin, with +11.  (They have 16 INTs and 10 recovered fumbles, while throwing only six picks and the nine aforementioned fumbles.)  This is so important.  Look at the 2nd place team in the Big East, West Virginia.  The Mountaineers have scored 19 fewer points than UConn, but they have also given up 83 fewer points.  So how does UConn have the same conference record as WestVa?  Because they force more turnovers at critical points in the game.  Exhibit A: Kendall Reyes's momentum-turning INT after the Bearcats had driven to UConn's 9-yard line down by only a touchdown.

     3.  Limit mistakes

The logical corollary to point no. 2 is that UConn must limit its own mistakes in order to maintain a positive takeaway ratio.  This means handing the ball to America's second leading collegiate rusher, Jordan Todman, and minimizing the number of throws that backup QB Zach Frazer must make.  The Huskies did a good job of this vs. Cincinnati, a game in which Frazer went 11-for-24 (an uninspiring 46% completion rate) for only 121 yards (5.0 ypc) with a TD and an INT.  On a windy day, limiting Frazer to only one pick is acceptable.  The key is establishing a good run/pass ratio.  Sure enough, Connecticut ran the ball 52 times and threw only 24 times.  That's over a 2:1 ratio, which I think is sufficient to limit UConn's mistakes.

So be sure to tune in on ESPN2 next weekend to see whether UConn can close out its season on a 5-game winning streak by clinching the Big East and a trip to Tempe for the Fiesta Bowl!  One thing is clear, though.  As Jeff Jacobs said over at the Hartford Courant, UConn's resilience cannot be underestimated.