3 Reasons The Yankees Need To Make Joba the 5th Starter

Has any pitcher who was so young created so much controversy, debate and intrigue? Joba Chamberlain went through the hyped up prospect stage, the dominant reliever stage, the midge incident, an injury, the starter/reliever debate, many iterations of the "Joba Rules", back-and-forth between the bullpen and rotation, and the guy is only 24 and just won his first World Series ring. I figured that after all the crap that the Yankees have put Joba through, that 2010 would be the year they let go of the Joba Rules, let him air it out, and see what happens. So I was very disappointed to see John Harper's New York Daily News article today which basically makes it seem that the Yankees feel Joba should be a reliever. Ugh. So let's go one more time through why Joba needs to be a starter with 3 easy-to-follow reasonings:

1.  When he was really a starter in 2009, he was very good. Joba was rolling along through the end of July when the Yankees decided it would be a good idea to screw with his schedule and change the amount of innings he threw. I understand the thought behind it--keep him under a certain amount of innings--but the execution made no sense. Joba is a pitcher who is all about rhythm with his pitching. When he's in a groove, he rears back, throws, gets the ball back and repeats. When he's off, he's walking around the mound, shaking off the catcher, laboring, and nibbling at the corners. The Yankees basically found the best way to screw up that rhythmic success he had developed. Joba's last three starts before the end of July were 6.2, 7.0 and then 8.0 innings long, he pitched 100 pitches in each and gave up a total of 2 earned runs (0.83 ERA). He held opponents to a dominant.114/.222/.200 line and looked very much like the pitcher we all wanted him to be. And then the Yankees pulled out the rug from under him. Let's look at his stats before and after July from Baseball-Reference:

• Before: 20 starts, 7-2, 3.58 ERA, 110.2 IP, 105 H, 44 ER, 50 BB, 97 K, 13 HR, .254/.347/.403 vs
• After: 11 starts, 2-4, 7.52 ERA, 46.2 IP, 62 H, 39 ER, 26 BB, 36 K, .316/.397/.515 vs

And here's how that looked month-by-month:



2. Phil Hughes isn't stretched out enough and may not be a good starter. Remember how frustrating the Joba rules were? Well imagine going through that all over again with Phil Hughes. In 2005, Hughes threw 86.1 innings. In 2006, he threw 146.0. In 2007, he threw 37.2 in the minors and 72.2 in the majors (110.1 total). In 2008, he threw 35.2 in the minors and 34 in the majors (69.2 total). In 2009, he threw 19.1 in the minors and 86.0 in the majors (105.1 total). So you really think they'll air him out and let him throw 200 innings? Would they even let him reach 150 at this point considering he's only thrown over 110.1 once in his entire professional career and that was in 2006? I doubt it and you can't blow through those limits. Joba is stretched out and ready to go while Hughes will have to be babied like Joba was. The Verducci Effect is on watch for Joba this year, but if Hughes throws more than 135.1, he hits that level. Is that all the Yankees will let him throw--especially considering the age of their pitchers, the injury risks, and how not having a 5th starter was problematic at times last season? Ugh, I hope not. And the Yankees will certainly need at least one stretched out starter next year when Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez are both free agents and if you add 60 pitches to Hughes 2009, he still doesn't reach the 200 innings the Yankees would need.

Let's also take a look at how the two match up as starters vs. relievers:

Joba:

Hughes:


Even though this is a small sample size, I think it shows that the Yankees are better off going with Joba than Hughes.

3. If you really believe Joba will be a better pitcher than Hughes, he belongs in the rotation. If I put a gun to your head and asked you who the better pitcher will be who would you say: Joba or Hughes? I think most people would say Joba. He just seems to have more potential. So why would you bury him as a reliever? Because Mariano Rivera might retire someday? Because of some flashes of brilliance he showed in 2007? I'm not even going to try to list the reasons why a great starter is more important than a great reliever (done and done and sarcastically done). I think the Yankees showed in 2009 that winning championships is about your starting pitching. A closer is important. A set-up man, not so much. In the playoffs, the Yankees had no one set-up man and did quite fine. Guys like David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, Chad Gaudin and others can handle the bullpen. And Mariano Rivera, although he's got some gray/missing hair, is still the closer. Let Joba start and let's see what he can do. If he sucks it up this season, what's stopping the Yankees from moving him back into the bullpen? But as we've seen by the innings limitations, moving the guy the opposite way isn't as easy. Which is what you're now asking Phil Hughes to do if you ask him to be the 5th starter. Not exactly the way to go, in my opinion.

Here's my opinion on what the Yankees should do: make Joba, Hughes, Aceves, and Gaudin battle for the 5th starter spot and stretch them out. Unless Joba sucks it up big time in Spring Training (or gets in trouble for having all this facial hair), make him the 5th starter. If everyone is healthy to start the season, send Aceves and Gaudin to the bullpen (Gaudin as either a longman or righty specialist), and send Hughes to AAA.

Why to AAA? Because Hughes needs to get stretched out and he would be the first starter called up if the Yankees had an injury in the rotation. In an ideal situation, Hughes would get 125 innings between AAA and the majors in 2010 and next season would be able to throw at least 150 innings. And if the bullpen falters and the Yankees need Hughes, they can build him up as a starter and get the rest of his innings as a reliever in the bullpen down the stretch. But next year, the Yankees wouldn't be forced to go out and get a 5th starter for 2011 if Hughes could pitch 150 innings for them. And I think they need that guy in 2010 has to be Joba. It's not an ultimate right; if he's sucking it up all season long and nibbling away his pitch count/starts, the Yankees can easily slide him back to the bullpen. But they need to give him the chance and the inside track. I think that's the only way the Yankees can truly build a rotation with 5 capable starters which they will need to fend off the rest of the AL East in 2010 and defend their World Series Crown.

Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below!

Picture courtesy of DayLife