Hot Stove Coal: The Yankees Worst Case Scenario, Part III

Jason over at IIATMS said it right when he said "Ugh.  Blech." about Part I and Part II of this list. I was urged to stop, to be done with it, to end the pain...but I don't think it's an unimportant activity, and I'm motivated to finish with Part III: the bullpen, the bench and the manager. To fellow Yankees fans, I'm sorry...it'll all be over soon (and to the Yankee-haters who are reading this, you get this last one. Enjoy while it lasts):

Mariano Rivera. What it would look like: Game 7 2001 ALCS/Game 4 2004 ALCS. I shudder just thinking about this thought, but eventually Mariano Rivera isn't going to be superhuman or he's going to retire before he gets to that point. I almost hope the latter happens. I'd take one less year of Rivera rather than seeing him struggle mightily through a season. I use those two games above as examples just because of the feelings of those games: "wait, what just happened?" In the same way, if Mo were to reach his "worst case scenario" we'd all be asking the same thing. Rivera is the anti-Vikings, though. When Vikings fans think their team is going to be really good, they disappoint--and when Rivera haters think he's finally become human, he shuts down the opposition. There have been a few early-season hiccups in recent years (his game-winning HR given up against Boston in Fenway as an example), but he stormed back to have a great season. In fact, Rivera's past two seasons at age 38 and 39 may have been two of his best (1996, 1999, and 2005 were among the best as well). So anything deviating from close-to-perfect would be a "worst case scenario" with the Sandman--surely a nightmare for any Yankee fan. Heaven forbid.

Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain. What it would look like: Their 2009 playoffs. The thought is that whichever one of these two does not make the rotation will be the set-up man. But what if that isn't the case? What if they pitch as poorly as they did in the 2009 playoffs? What if Joba starts crying every time he gives up a home run in a big situation like he did in the World Series after giving up the bomb to Pedro Feliz? What if the magic that Joba showed in 2007 and 2008 and Hughes showed in 2009 doesn't show up?  The Yankees suddenly have a problem. Cue Mike Francesa (H/T Paul):




Alfredo Aceves. What it would look like: July 9th-September 22nd last year. Alfredo Aceves is of the Yankees best finds. They plucked him out of Mexico and he's been an invaluable resource to them. But the Yankees looked like they had pushed their luck when they asked Aceves to spot start on July 9th. From that game to September 22nd (when the finally allowed him to rest his arm) Aceves was not the same pitcher he was the rest of the season. Despite a 5-0 record, he had a bloated 5.89 ERA and looked like he was hiding an injury. If you take out that period of his short career, his ERA is 1.98. Good Aceves is a huge bullpen piece. Bad Aceves is bad news.

David Robertson. What it would look like: Kyle Farnsworth redux. Yankees fans may remember a certain pitcher by the name of Kyle Farnsworth. The guy had a great fastball but got too interested in just throwing it through the wall and impressing the radar gun. He was booed out of town. David Robertson led the AL (and was second in the Majors to Jonathan Broxton) with 13 K/9 last season and looked mighty impressive (maybe even more so than the much-more-heralded Daniel Bard of the Red Sox). The fear is that he doesn't duplicate that this season, that he gets too enamored with the K, and that his BB rate doesn't come down. And that would seem to be a waste after the talent he demonstrated last season.

Damaso Marte. What it would look like: His 2009 regular season. The Yankees had high hopes for Marte, giving him a 3-year contract, but he was a complete bust during the regular season with a 9.45 ERA and only pitched 13.1 innings. Marte was fabulous in the playoffs and the hope among Yankee fans is that he's Graeme Lloyd redux (bad first regular season, great in the playoffs, carried over to future seasons) but if he reverts back to 2009 regular season form, the Yankees are on the hook for two more years of a bad pitcher and have no lefty specialist.

Edwar Ramirez/Jonathan Albaladejo/Mark Melancon/Boone Logan. What it would look like: Jose Veras. Basically another young pitcher with promise that just couldn't be relied on to get outs in the big leagues. I have the most faith in Melancon out of this bunch, but I don't feel like Girardi feels the same. There will be a few names added to this list as the year goes on. The hope is that one of them works out. The fear is that none of them do (which is what happened last year and for the past few years).

Ramiro Pena/whoever is the utility infielder. What it would look like: Angel Berroa. Angel Berroa had a -5 OPS last season for the Yankees. Yes. -5. The Yankees don't need Pena or whoever the utility infielder is to be a slugger, but if they're going to play for A-Rod once a week and fill in for Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano on occasion, they need to at least put up a positive OPS. If not, the Yankees don't have a lot of options without a veteran utility infielder on the roster.

Francisco Cervelli. What it would look like: The Yankees backup catchers between Joe Girardi and Jose Molina. The Yankees went many years having backups that couldn't hit well and couldn't field well. Jose Molina solved that on the fielding side and there is hope in Cervelli. But let's be honest: the guy has a career .648 OPS and was never really a hitter in the minors. If he can't catch as well, the Yankees will be in trouble because you can usually expect some downtime from Jorge Posada at this point in his career. The backup needs to be servicable. The worst case scenario for Cervelli is that he is not.

Randy Winn. What it would look like: A further decline on his 2009 season combined with bad defense. He looked just about finished last year and the Yankees are hoping that it was just an anomaly. He was awful against lefties and if that continues, it hurts the Yankees as well who are hoping Winn can at least be better than Granderson against southpaws. Lastly, if Winn's defensive skills go with his bat (which is possible considering he is getting older), the Yankees have $2 M in a whole lot of nothing sitting on the bench. This will also look bad if guys like Reed Johnson, Johnny Gomes or Marcus Thames have big years when the Yankees decided to sign Winn over them.

Jaime Hoffmann. What it would look like: A wasted Rule 5 Pick. The Yankees traded Brian Bruney for the first pick in the Rule 5 draft and many were surprised when Hoffmann's name was chosen. The Yankees have to hope they didn't pass on the next Shane Victorino, Johan Santana, or Josh Hamilton and that Hoffmann sticks on the roster. If not, they're going to look pretty bad for going for a pick many have questioned.

Joe Girardi. What it would look like: International Macroeconomics for me/"The Binder" for Girardi. Let me explain. I took Macro 3 times: high school, undergrad and graduate school and disliked it all three times. The last time I took it I was put in a group to work on a final paper and we came up with a topic and produced a bunch of really nice-looking graphs. We were sitting around with these graphs and suddenly I realized that although I had all these nice-looking graphs, I had no freaking idea what I was looking at or how to use it in context. I had good intentions, but I just couldn't turn that into results. We were able to produce the results we needed but not because we took the right path. It was fine for the class, but it wasn't replicable.

I feel the same is true with Girardi and that binder. We saw it come into play big time during the ALCS but I feel that despite Girardi's insistence on being knowledgeable about statistics, he doesn't always know how to put that into practice. I don't mean to diminish what he accomplished with the Yankees last year, but some things like naming Xavier Nady the starter over Nick Swisher or starting Melky Cabrera over Brett Gardner seemed to work out by taking the wrong route. Girardi also got caught over-managing at times, unable to just sit on the bench and relax like Joe Torre was able to do. I hope that Girardi learns from his mistakes from last year and feels more comfortable in his role (job security is surely better) and turns that into better managing decisions. But if he doesn't he can really hurt the Yankees and a few wins in the ultra-competitive AL East can be the difference between winning the division, winning the Wild Card, or not making the playoffs.

The Steinbros and Brian Cashman. What it would look like: Hank Steinbrenner unleashed. I just put this here because I'm talking about worst case scenarios, but one of the worst things besides missing the playoffs from 2008 was Hank constantly questioning and dictating to the Yankees like his father used to do. Last year, Hank was caged and the Yankees were mostly bad headline free once the A-Rod/steroids thing blew over. The Yankees are best when Cashman is running the show and second guessing isn't done by upper management via the media. If the Yankees look like they're missing Matsui or Damon in April, it won't help things if Hankenstein is revived.

Thoughts? Comments? Ready to throw up?

Good news for Yankees fans, I don't really believe that many of the things I listed in these three parts have any likelihood of happening. So take a deep breath and relax: it should be all right. I hope...