Hot Stove Coal: The Yankees Worst Case Scenario, Part II

I didn't mean to be a masocist when I wrote Part 1. And I wasn't trying to make Red Sox and other anti-Yankee fans happier. But somehow it happened. Here was some of the reaction:

From Craig Calcaterra at NBC Sports: "I presume Part II will be the pitchers.  Bookmark it, Orioles and Jays fans! It may be the best you feel all year!" (one commenter pointed out that my description of the worst case scenario for the Yankees just sounded like I was describing the Mets). Jay at Fack Youk says to check out the post "If you're in a masochistic sort of a mood" and "tietack" over on the Mariners discussion board at seattlepi.com wrote: "The Yahnkees are a mix of older players, possibly ready to go over the hill, journeymen, and a few players in their primes."

And of course this ended up on the Red Sox discussion board as well at Uponthemonster where username "Offbase" said "Whatever Part II contains it will not contain 'CC fails to button his pants' and that will be a shame."

The reasoning behind Part I was that I wanted to show what it would look like if everything went wrong with the Yankees starting lineup. This was mostly about looking at the question marks behind each player and trying to be somewhat (ir)rational about it. Now it's time to go to Part II, Yankees fans beware. Let's start by following Craig's suggestion and look at Part II, the starting pitching:

CC Sabathia: What it would look like: Alex Fernandez after Marlins won the 1997 World Series. In December of 1996, the Florida Marlins General Manager Dave Dombrowski brought a big free agent starter to the Marlins in Alex Fernandez. In his last year in Chicago (where he was a workhorse), Fernandez made 35 starts, pitching 258 innings, and in his first season in Florida, he pitched 220.2 innings plus the playoffs. The Marlins won their World Series but Fernandez couldn't handle the pressure on his arm. He missed the 1998 season, and, despite winning Comeback Player of the Year in 1999, he was out of baseball after 2000.

Well not to shatter anyone's parade, but CC's last season before Pinstripes he made 35 starts and pitched 253 innings (plus playoffs) and last season he pitched 230 innings (plus playoffs). According to Baseball-Reference's Play Index, the hefty lefty is second in innings over the past two years, first in innings over the past three years, second in innings over the past four years, first in innings over the past five years, and over the last decade was 9th in innings pitched despite the fact he was a rookie in 2001. The worst case scenario are that all those innings goes to Sabathia's arm. The guy isn't doing himself a favor by eating so many Subway clubs and if CC fails in his ability to button his pants, it doesn't do the rest of his body any favors. Without CC, the Yankees truly have no ace and it puts a lot more pressure on the other guys.

A.J. Burnett: What it would look like: Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn before he figured out how to harness the fastball/the first inning of Game 5 of the 2009 World Series. In Major League Rick Vaughn (played by Charlie Sheen) was the tattooed ex-con who had a mean fastball but couldn't harness it*. Burnett may not be all that different. A.J. Burnett led the league in walks last year and was tied for the league lead with 17 wild pitches, while also hitting 10 guys (4th in the league). Despite those numbers, he was able to put up a good first season in the Bronx by striking out 195 batters and inducing hitters to ground into 15 GIDPs.

What if Burnett is not able to get out of trouble so easily? He may have gotten lucky in his first season in Pinstripes that walks didn't come back to bite him, but if he's not able to miss bats as easily, it could look a lot like the beginning of his Game 5 start in the World Series. Burnett was also a better pitcher in the hitters haven in the Bronx than he was on the road. What happens if those numbers change as would seem normal? And what if the injury history that Burnett has been dragging around his whole career catches up with him again next year? He got himself into great shape and a great routine and was able to stay healthy for a year (only the fourth time in his career he made over 27 starts), but complacency could kick in a year after winning a World Series and that would be trouble for the Yankees who still have four years left of Burnett.

*Side Note: If we're truly going on the "Wild Thing" analogy, Cynthia Rodriguez would sleep with A.J. Burnett to get back at her cheating husband. And Burnett would gladly do it because A-Rod was purposely missing grounders at 3rd because he doesn't want to get injured. OK, enough of Major League for now...

Andy Pettitte: What it would look like: Andy's second half of 2008. Andy Pettitte pitched well in 2008 before injuries finally caught up with him and his injured arm could only muster a 4-7 record with a 5.35 ERA in 13 starts in the second half. In 2009, Pettitte's injuries seemed to disappear (except for a little episode at the end) and he was great for them in the playoffs, winning the clinching game of every series. Andy Pettitte will be 38 next season, though, and it's not impossible that he'll revert back to that second half form from 2008...or even worse. Pettitte is also a prideful guy and I can see him demanding to take the ball everyday even if he's not at his most effective. The Yankees can't afford to let him do that, though. Especially not at home, where he struggled at times with the dimensions of the New Yankee Stadium, giving up 14 HR at home. George Steinbrenner III wanted the Yankees to let Pettitte go after the 2003 seasons because of concerns about his arm holding up and Yankee haters hope this is the year it finally goes.

Javier Vazquez: What it would look like: 2004 ALCS Game 7. The worst thing that Javy Vazquez can do is remind Yankee fans at all of what he looked like during his last game in the Bronx. Many Yankee fans (including me) are taking a leap of faith that his being back in Pinstripes won't bring back those memories. We hope his season in the Bronx wasn't as bad as it seemed, that he was injured during the second half, and that it was a statistical anomaly in an otherwise consistent career. We're hoping that a trip back to the American League and to the best hitting division and one of the best hitting home parks isn't going to make Vazquez turn into a homerun machine. We're also hoping that Ozzie Guillen is wrong that Vazquez isn't a big game pitcher. But if we're wrong, it could be real trouble. I can't see the Yankee Stadium faithful having a large amount of tolerance for a slow start from Vazquez and I doubt he'll be much good for the Yankees if that becomes the case. And if any of the three players that the Yankees traded for Vazquez turn out to be stars, it could look like quite a bad trade, considering that Vazquez already had a spotty track record in the Bronx.

Joba Chamberlain: What it would look like: Mike Francesa's worst nightmare. The problem with developing young pitchers in the Bronx is that the media and the fans don't have a lot of time for developmental struggles. Robinson Cano was able to fit into the Yankees seemingly seamlessly because he hit right from the get-go. After following the Joba Rules for another year, Joba may have the opportunity to air it out as a starter. If he pitches as tentatively as he did at times last season, nibbling at the corners, shaking off Jorge Posada, walking guys and unable to finish off anyone, Joba's in big trouble. He needs to trust his stuff but also trust that the catcher will call a good game for him and that he can now rear back and throw heat. But if he's not able to do this or if the velocity starts to decline more, the Yankees are in trouble. The worst case scenario is another arm injury or not being able to move him to the bullpen as a Plan B. The latter is certainly WFAN radio personality, Mike Francesa's, biggest fear as he's always worried the Yankees "wasted" Joba's "God-given talents" by trying to use him as a starter and that he won't be the Joba of his rookie year if they try to move him back now. If that's the case, the Yankees will certainly regret not taking the chance to trade Joba for guys like Johan Santana and Roy Halladay.

Phil Hughes: What it would look like: Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy of 2008. Let's say it's Hughes instead of Joba for the 5th starter role. In 2008, the Yankees handed two rookies, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy starting spots. They went on to win zero games and struggle mightly, including an injury to Hughes that stunted his development. Even if the Yankees start Hughes this year, he will be subjected to the same types of "rules" that Joba has had the past few years and if he reacts the same way as Joba did to the skipped starts, it could be trouble in the Bronx. In 2008, Hughes went 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA and 11.4 H/9. For his career he's 8-9 with a 5.22 ERA as a starter. Unless he can pitch as a starter as well as he did as a set up man in the regular season last year, the Yankees may be looking at another top prospect pitcher who they overvalued and didn't trade when they had a chance. And if neither Joba nor Hughes develop into a solid starter, the Yankees are in big trouble next year with Pettitte probably retired and Vazquez in his walk year.

Sergio Mitre: What it would look like:What, a 6.79 ERA and 12.4 H/9 isn't bad enough? The Yankees are hoping that two years removed from major arm surgery Mitre is a better pitcher than he was last season. But if he isn't and the Yankees are forced to give him a starting pitching role for a lengthy amount of time, the Yankees are in deep trouble. So, really, seeing Mitre start 15-20 games would be a problem...a big problem. It would almost make Yankees fans yearn for the days of Sidney Ponson. Ugh.

Chad Gaudin: What it would look like: Aaron Small in 2006. Aaron was a Small acquisition for the Yankees in 2005 but played a huge roll by going 10-0 with a 3.20 ERA when the Yankees needed him most. He came back to the team in 2006 and went 0-3 with a 8.46 ERA and was pretty awful. Chad Gaudin was a small pickup for the Yankees who did very well for them in his first year in the Bronx. But expecting Gaudin to start for a length of time this year would be a mistake, just like Mitre. And even though I have more confidence in Gaudin, it's like having the confidence that an Apple IIe computer will be a sufficient computer for a whole year just because it once worked.

Part III will get into the bullpen and the bench, but those are my thoughts for now. Comments? Thoughts? Let me know in the comments below

Picture from NBC Sports