Sat., Jan. 10, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Baltimore (11-5, 1-0) at 
Tennessee (13-3) The first game of the week has the closest point spread of the week. Amazingly all four of these divisional matchups already occurred in the regular season. And all four had somewhat fluky outcomes (with wins of 1, 2, 4, and 5 points). Throw out the records, these two teams are about as even as they come (as Bill Simmons pointed out in today's column) In their first matchup, Kerry Collins marched the Titans down the field on an 80-yard touchdown drive to win. This one was aided by a personal foul penalty...which really was just incidental contact. That was part of 169 yards of penalties racked up in this game. The difference was in the QBs. Collins was able to get past his Ravens nightmares from the 2000 Superbowl (with absolutely no proof to back up his claim, my dad still swears that Collins bet against the Giants that game...and, really, looking back at the tape, it doesn't seem so far-fetched). With the Ravens needing a score to tie it up, Joe Flacco threw an INT to end the game. There's your difference. And this game is being played in Tennessee. The notion that home-field advantage means nothing seems to be thrown out in the Divisional Round, according to Gregg Easterbrook: "Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, home teams in the divisional round are 55-17, a .764 winning percentage." Now weigh that against Bill Simmons writing that home-field advantage has left the building. But this is the Divisional Round so I'll let Easterbrook have this one. And it seems that rain is in the forecast tomorrow, but should subside by the afternoon, leaving the field and the balls a little slick. My guess is that you see a really good defensive battle that dictates the pace of the game. Turnovers galore. And the running games will account for many more yards in this game than in the previous matchup. Chris Johnson is a better running back than anything that Tennessee will throw out there against them, and Tennessee is getting healthy right when they need to be. Either team can win this game. I think you have to go with veterans, home field advantage, and against the very, very trendy pick. A veteran coach, a veteran QB, and a slight edge in RB will allow the Titans to win this game. Final score: Titans 17 - Ravens 12.
Sat., Jan. 10, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Arizona (9-7, 1-0) at 
Carolina (12-4)The problem for me in this game is not to predict who will win (I think Carolina has this one), but to see if Carolina can beat the 10 point spread their up against. These teams met earlier in the season and it was a matchup of QBs that were former teammates...in NFL Europe. But both Delhomme and Warner had great games and put their team in position to win. The Panthers were down in the game, but a 65-yard pass to Steve Smith helped the Panthers hold off the Cardinals. Carolina was 8-0 at home. Arizona was both terrible on the road and, according to the critics, may not have won a game on the East Coast since the Lincoln administration. Showers are also expected for this game. I think this benefits Carolina. Arizona relies on their passing game way too much. Even when Arizona had success running the ball, as they did in the beginning of the Wild Card game, they inexplicably decided to go away from it. Dumb coaching won't get you too far in the playoffs either. Arizona had one player who rushed for more than 17 yards in the first matchup: Anquan Boldin, a wide receiver. Arizona's problem is playing from behind...especially in bad weather. When they're at home, they seem to be a different team than on the road, where the elements can get to them (see Foxboro, Mass. and the snow). Pat Yasinskas breaks down the showdown of the WRs here very nicely. The key to this game will be establishing the defense to stop these WRs and the two-headed running attack of the Panthers. In their first playoff game, the Cards were able to impressively stop Michael Turner and "Matty Ice". Turner seemed to be running in slow motion. Every run. Watch it again. In super-slow-mo, I doubt you can even see him moving. Carolina is well coached, confident, need Delhomme to minimize his mistakes and play within his game. And one factor, reported by Mike Sando, sent me over the top: "Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa get the call for Fox when the Cardinals face the Panthers in an NFC divisional playoff game Saturday at Bank of America Stadium...The Cardinals are 0-3 when Albert, Johnston and Siragusa work their games this season." There it is. The Cardinals are distracted by the fact that "Moose" and "Goose" hate each other's guts. Hate each other. If you've watched their broadcasts this season, they can't stand each other. They put Goose down on the field so that they don't kill each other. I'm convinced of that. I think this is the Panthers game...but will it be more than 10 points? I think it will be exactly 10. Final score: Panthers 30 - Cardinals 20.
Sun., Jan. 11, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Philadelphia (9-6-1, 1-0) at 
N.Y. Giants (12-4)I'll get to this one in the next post. But I need to get this out here: what the hell is wrong with Andy Reid. I've never thought that highly of him. But then he showed up on Sunday like he'd been drinking all week, slept on a sidewalk, got woken up by a policeman, worshipped the porcelain, ate a box of donuts, splashed some water in his face, put on a sweatsuit and showed up on the sidelines. I was growing a playoff beard until I realized the Philly craze around playoff beards. I mean look at this. I'm done. I'm shaving before this game. Like right when I get home. I can't believe I tried to grow this beard. I figured it'd be like the NHL playoffs. No more. There's not a change I'm going to be caught looking like Reid did. No I understand his constant challenging: Bloody Mary breaks. Makes perfect sense. He can't drink Bloody Mary's while the refs are looking so while they're under the hood, he's getting one of his assistance to grab one for him. How many times do you think they checked his credentials before they let him on the field? Do you think his hangover was bothered by the volume of the Metrodome? And this guy is supposedly a master coach? Well one of his "disciples", Brad Childress, made some of the dumbest coaching moves and handed his former "mentor" the last game. An offensive holding call? Childress declined it! 4th and inches and the worst return coverage in football against an explosive return man? Punt it! Have the NFL leading rusher and your best player and need to come from behind? Put him on the sideline! How/why did he give the Eagles this game? The Giants should be playing Arizona in this game. The Giants played their butts off down the stretch, and especially in that EPIC game against Carolina to get home-field advantage and the #1 seed. For what? So they could play the Eagles in round 2? Noooo. They wanted to play a team like the Cardinals or the Falcons or the Bucs or the Bears...NOT the Eagles. As a Giants fan, this is punishment for Plaxico Burress. I'm telling you, he had something to do with it. I'm as sure of that as my dad was that Collins threw away the Superbowl. Or maybe not. The truth really is that I can't see the Giants losing this game. Maybe that's just denial. Maybe I just don't want Wolinsky to cry. Final Score: Giants 24 - Eagles 17.
Sun., Jan. 11, 4:45 p.m. ET, CBS
San Diego (8-8, 1-0) at 
Pittsburgh (12-4)There were 12,837 NFL games played before one ended up in a 11-10 score as the earlier matchup between these two teams did (the truth is that the refs botched a call and it should have been 18-10, but the refs wanted to be involved in history as well). That game left the Chargers 4-6 overall and 0-13 in Pittsburgh in their history. Read that again: 0-13. Not one win. The last one was played on a snowy Sunday and this one looked to be snowy until recent forecasts seem to call for a break in the precipitation for Sunday. If it snows, Pittsburgh wins. If it doesn't the Chargers have a chance. It's as simple as that. Teams do not do well coming from warm weather climates into the cold and snow. San Diego started the season 4-8. Read that again: 4-8. And what team did they turn their season around by rallying back from a 21-3 deficit? The same team where their margin of victory in both matchups was exactly 1? The Kansas City Chiefs. Read that again: +2 points on the season against the Kansas City Chiefs. And this is the team everyone is predicting to win? The team that somehow fell behind 21-3 against the Chiefs? The Steelers lost 4 games all season. They lost to the Eagles (made the playoffs), Giants (made the playoffs), Colts (made the playoffs), and Titans (made the playoffs). The Steelers biggest concerns are the health of Ben Roethlisberger and establishing a running game. The latter is certainly important, as the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote, Pittsburgh needs to get back to their reputation as a power running team. If Willie Parker can run the ball (he ran for 115 in their first matchup) and the Steelers defense can limit Sproles with LDT out, this should be a Steeler win. BTW, Sproles was not as good as his numbers showed. Don't get me wrong, he was good, but he wasn't GREAT. He didn't dominate. Many of those yards came on special teams. And Indy's run defense was always their most suspect part of their game, anyway (in Indy's 17 games this season, they only had the leading rusher in the game twice...and once was in the last game with all the players resting for Tennessee). The Colts let Fred Taylor gain 121 yards against them this season. Fred Taylor? Pittsburgh had the best defense in the league this past season. The problem is that the past 3 years, the Chargers have killed me either way I've bet on them. I may have won 20% of the time on their games. I hate betting on this 6 1/2 point line. Remember when Allen died on Entourage and the guys said it was horrible, but really all the viewers and Drama knew it wasn't? That'll be what happens when the Chargers are finally eliminated. Let's just hope that what occurs is not another Smoke Jumpers...anyways, I was going to take the points in this one but will listen to Bill Simmons that I should not pick an underdog in the playoffs unless I think they can win. I want to take an underdog, I really do, but I do like all the favorites. Add up the bold passages in this section. It adds up to a Steeler win. Final Score: Steelers 21 - Chargers 14.
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