NYaT's Expert MLB Predictions for 2010

We're not really experts--but we're really doing our predictions. Last year I did pretty well. Not great. I had the Yankees and Phillies in the League Championship Series. So, hey, I did OK. But let's get ready for 2010 with some more "expert" predictions. Here's my predictions with the rest of the blog writers chiming in:

AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox  (Wild Card)
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

This is a three team race with a third team (the Orioles) who have an up-and-coming team. The Blue Jays have some good young players but are probably a few years from competition. The Orioles have one of the best young outfields in baseball (Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Nolan Reimold) but their starting pitching and bullpen may be too raw to compete in 2010. So that leaves the big three. I love the Rays team, but while everything came together for their bullpen in 2008, last year we saw what happens when that bullpen implodes. They will hit and they will field, but can they protect leads? I'm not confident in that. That leaves the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Yankees were 8 games better last year. While the Red Sox probably improved 8 games with their pitching and defense, the Yankees improved as well, basically replacing Chad Gaudin/Sergio Mitre in the rotation with Javy Vazquez (the only guy to throw 198 innings every season of the past decade). It's going to be closer, but I still think the Red Sox are an acquisition or two from beating the Yankees. While the Yankees could be undone by injuries, the Red Sox injury risks (John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Dice-K, J.D. Drew, etc.) are equally as present. What remains to be seen if Jonathan Papelbon has any ill effects from his implosion in last year's deciding game of the ALDS. The Fenway Faithful may not be too forgiving if he blows a game or two in the opening series vs. the Yankees. The Yankees fans will probably feel the same way if Javy Vazquez starts off slow as well. Ben and Ari took the Yankees with the Red Sox as Wild Card as well. Jay took the Yankees winning the division with the Rays as the division winner. Sarah has the Red Sox winning the division with Tampa winning the Wild Card. (picture from the New York Daily News)

AL Central:
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals

Read more>>

Top 5 Teams of the Decade

Sorry Red Sox fans, the decade is over. 2000-2009 was a great time in baseball, but the era is now closed. Let's look at the top five teams from the decade that was.

Honorable Mention:

• Houston Astros (won 1 pennant, played in 2 LCS, made playoffs 3 times, won 1 division, 7 seasons over .500)
• New York Mets (won 1 pennant, played in 2 LCS, made playoffs 2 times, 6 seasons over .500)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (won 1 World Series, played in 2 LCS, made playoffs 3 times, won 3 divisions, 6 seasons over .500)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (played in 2 LCS, made playoffs 4 times, won 3 divisions, 9 seasons over .500)
• Minnesota Twins (played in 1 LCS, made playoffs 5 times, won 5 divisions, 8 seasons over .500)
• Seattle Mariners (played in 2 LCS, made playoffs 2 times, won 1 division, 6 seasons over .500)
• Chicago White Sox (won 1 World Series, played in 1 LCS, made playoffs 3 times, won 3 divisions, 8 seasons over .500)
• Oakland As (played in 1 LCS, made playoffs 5 times, won 4 divisions, 7 seasons over .500)
  

#5: Philadelphia Phillies
World Series wins: 1
Pennants: 2
LCS: 2
Playoffs: 3
Divisions: 3
Playoff record: 20-12 (.625)
Series record: 5-2

Seasons over .500: 8
Overall record: 850-769 (.525)

Maybe it's just recent memory getting in the way, but I'm going with Philly #5 over all the teams listed above. It was tough, but I think that 8 seasons over .500 and 3 straight divisions gives it to the Phillies. Pat Burrell led them over the decade with 251 HR (with Ryan Howard in 2nd with 222) and Brett Myers led Philadelphia with 73 wins (second was Randy Wolf with 63).


#4: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

World Series wins: 1
LCS: 3
Playoffs: 6
Divisions: 5
Playoff Record: 21-24 (.467)
Series Record:  5-5
Season over .500: 8Overall record: 900-720 (.556)

The Angels had a pretty bad playoff record for so much success. They can thank the Red Sox for a lot of that damage. Although they were the Anaheim Angels for half of the decade, they were a successful team throughout. Garret Anderson led the Halos with 200 home runs to Vlad Guerrero's 173 and John Lackey won 102 games, much more than the next closest Angel, Jarrod Washburn at 65. The Angels could have vaulted up this list with a World Series win in 2009, but their LCS exit to the Yankees bumped them back.

#3: St. Louis Cardinals
World Series wins: 1
Pennants: 2
LCS: 5
Playoffs: 7
Divisions: 6
Playoff record: 31-24 (.564)
Series record: 8-6
Seasons over .500: 9
Overall record: 913-706 (.564)


I was surprised to see how much success the Cards have truly had this past decade. If Matt Holliday doesn't drop the fly ball in Los Angeles, they may be moving up the list as well as a World Series win would have given them consideration to move up to #2. Alas, they'll sit in #3 as the best team in the National League during the decade. They made half of the LCS played in the first decade of the 00's so that's points in their column which is tied with the Yankees for the most in baseball over that span. Albert Pujols had 366 HR over the decade (2nd was Jim Edmonds at 241) and, amazingly, Matt Morris led all redbirds in wins with 82 (2nd was Chris Carpenter at 68).

#2: Boston Red Sox
World Series wins:2
Pennants:2
LCS: 4 
Playoffs: 6
Divisions:1
Playoff record: 34-23 (.596)
Series record: 8-4
Seasons over .500: 10
Overall record: 920-699 (.568)

Red Sox fans are just pissed that they can't use their own definition of the decade to make their case look better. Sorry. This resume is pretty damn impressive as it is. A .596 winning % in the playoffs including two sweeps of the World Series certainly looks great as does the *gulp* 3-0 comeback against the Yankees. Manny Ramirez slugged 274 HR for the BoSox to beat out David Ortiz (259) and knuckeballer Tim Wakefield won 110 games to easily put away Pedro Martinez (who won his 75 in only 5 years and did it to a .743 winning %). Again, the Red Sox finish second to the rival Yankees.

#1: New York Yankees

World Series wins: 2
Pennants: 4
LCS: 5 
Playoffs: 9
Divisions: 8
Playoff record: 52-41 (.559)
Series record: 11-7
Seasons over .500: 10
Overall record: 965-651 (.596)

It took a while to get back there, but the Yankees are truly the team of the decade once again (they won that honor in the 90s as well). Although they had some hiccups in the playoffs (too many first-round exits, that 3-0 blowup), it is also magnified because they made the playoffs 9 out of 10 years--more than the rest of their entire division combined. A-Rod (238 HR) edged out Jason Giambi (209) and Jorge Posada (208) on the offensive side and Mike Mussina won 123 games to best Andy Pettitte (111). In the end, the Pinstripes rained supreme. Others agree:

David Wells:

Let's end one debate before it really gets started. The Red Sox gave it a nice run for a while, but the Yankees are the team of the decade -- again. 

I can just imagine what the scene in Red Sox Nation is about now. The fans are bitter. Very bitter. The Yankees are back on top, and that can't be sitting too well in New England.

Rob Neyer:

Landslide. Sorry, Nation. 

Update 1:15 PM: Forgot to include this link which says that Brian Cashman also agrees that the Yankees are the team of the decade with very, very angry Red Sox comments underneath.

Quick Review of Yesterday's Games: ALDS Weekend

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Game 2 - Yankees 4, Twins 3 (11 innings): What more can I say? I was there! So were 50,006 which was a new record for the New Yankee Stadium as the Stadium shook on multiple occasions. Matt Tolbert's oblique strain was the worst thing that happened to the Yankees in the series as Tolbert's replacement, Brendan Harris, almost singlehandedly won Game 2 for the Twins. David Robertson got his due after getting out of an all-time jam in the top of the 11th. Even though the Yankees won a ridiculously dramatic game that will be a Yankee Classic, all anyone could talk about afterward was instant replay. Earth to the reporters who have nothing better to write: it may not have made a difference! Joe Nathan, one of the top 3 closers in the AL, was on the mound for the Twins with a golden chance to tie this series up at 1, but failed. Then Mark Teixeira finally got a piece of the pie. Some more postgame reaction from fans who were there here, here, here, here, and here.

Game 3 - Yankees 4, Twins 1: The comeback kids did it again and produced some memorable images. It took a while for the offensive to get going against Carl Pavano who was seeking redemption but the Yankees came on late (again) and won. A-Rod continued to crush his playoff reputation. The Yankees helped to tear down the Metrodome and will advance to the ALCS to take on their nemesis, the Angels, instead of their archrival. A-Rod is ready for some payback against the Halos after he continues to pass his test with flying colors. It was fitting it was Posada and the "Old Guard" that helped end the ALDS, though it was really a combination of A-Rod and the "Dynasty Boys". It was also some historically awful postseason baserunning by the Twins that did them in, including "fundamentally sound" Nick Punto who may not be such a gamer after all, as shocking as that is to the Minnesota media. Still, their manager had a lot of classy things to say in defeat. The Twins' run is finally over. Bring on the Angels!


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox
Game 2 - Angels 4, Red Sox 1: For a second game in a row, Boston got out-aced with Jered Weaver out-pitching Josh Beckett. One big inning proved to be too much for the Red Sox. The Angels dominated the Red Sox in Games 1 and 2 wall to wall and put their backs against the Green Monster. The Red Sox just didn't do their part to make Yankees/Red Sox III happen. The bats failed the Red Sox in the first two games. The Red Sox tried to conjure up remembrance of comebacks past to help them out.

Game 3 - Angels 7, Red Sox 6: This was a great scenario for the Red Sox: they got a 12 PM game, at home, against a west coast team that hasn't played well in their ballpark. They got a 5-1 lead and the infamous afternoon shadows started to creep in. There was 4 outs to go and a 5-2 lead so the Red Sox went to Jonathan Papelbon, their lights-out closer. He gave up two runs (allowing two inherited runners to score) in the bottom of the 8th. The Red Sox got an insurance run in the top of the 9th and that looked like it would loom large. In the bottom of the 9th, Papelbon had two outs and an 0-2 count. It's over, right? Not exactly. A total meltdown for Papelbon (and a great job the Angels to expose his flaws) and an ill-conceived intentional walk and the Red Sox are swept in the first round. Well Bostonians can enjoy their cell phones and watching the Yanks and Angels the rest of the postseason. Or there's other ways to get over the Red Sox (H/T Jenn). Jonathan Papelbon may take the blame of Red Sox Nation as they try to fix the team for the future, regroup and figure out what went wrong and why they fell apart as a team. Give credit to Vlad Guerrero for one of the best postseason moments so far (though I won't call it the best) and one of the greatest Angels' victories. The Angels are a tough team.


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Game 3 - Dodgers 5, Cardinals 1: The Cardinals never recovered from Matt Holliday dropping that line drive. What a swing of events (Billy Buckner-esque) as the Cardinals are eliminated in a sweep and the Dodgers move on to the NLCS once again. If the Cards could have won this game, they would have had Carpenter and Wainwright (who was brilliant) pitching in Games 4 and 5. But it never got to that point. The Cards looked flat and dejected and the Dodgers just steamrolled all over them. Vincente Padilla feels at home in Los Angeles. Joe Torre is the toast of the town after guiding Los Angeles back to the NLCS. It almost feels like it will be Joe Torre back in the Bronx at the end of October, a finish baseball needs.


Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Game 3 - Phillies 6, Rockies 5: After being snowed out, the Phillies and Rockies played a great, cold one in Colorado. The game went back-and-forth and back-and-forth but the Phillies proved to be more resilient. Give MAJOR props to Charlie Manuel who used his best reliever, Ryan Madson, when it counted the most instead of waiting for the traditional save situation. Brad Lidge got a little redemption for a day as he got the save. Lidge came in one of the worst closers in recent NL history and came out of it with the save after throwing a pitch he hadn't thrown in a very long time. It felt like the Phillies had turned back the clock a year when the game was over. That all being said, Lidge put two runners on base in the 9th so you can't feel that comfortable with him. But it's baby steps. Maybe it was the Colorado pitching. And maybe another bad umpiring decision. Either way, 2-1 lead for the Phillies (who are now in the driver's seat), though it was over way too late for me to stay up and see the end of the game. In fact, it was the longest 9-inning postseason game in NL (NLDS or NLCS) history. With Cliff Lee going tonight, this one could be over.

Today:

• 6 PM game - Phillies @ Rockies: Cliff Lee vs. Jose Jiminez
  
• Dodgers off until NLCS starts Thursday
  
• Yankees and Angels off until ALCS starts Friday

Quick Review of Yesterday's Games: ALDS Day 2

Rockies 5, Phillies 4: Cole Hamels didn't pitch well and then ran to the hospital to be with his wife who was in labor. One of the pitches hit out? A Cole Hamels curveball by Yorvit Torrealba (who took inspiration from his son) which was a first for both of them this season. Then Charlie Manuel decided to dump out the starters out of the bullpen, pitching possible Game 3 starters JA Happ (who got hurt) and Joe Blanton (as well as my favorite-named pitcher, BASTARDO!). Some liked this move, others did not. The Phillies weren't able to come back despite rallying to make it a one-run game and putting two on in the 9th. There was a little role reversal in Philly and the Rockies offense looked revitalized. Now they're heading back to Colorado where it looks like it will snow, tied at 1 game a piece and Pedro Martinez will be on the mound (unless he decides to move Blanton into the rotation after throwing the inning in relief or use Happ coming back from injury). Charlie Manuel intends to keep everyone guessing on who his Game 3 starter will be. That could spell trouble for the Phillies. Also could doom the Phillies? Putting star starting pitchers in to pinch run. After Matt Stairs got on base, the Phillies pinch ran Cliff Lee for him. I know Cliff Lee had a stolen base the day before, but why take the chance? Now Philly goes from being in the driver's seat to needing to pull at least one game out of their hat in Colorado.

Dodgers 3, Cardinals 2: My roommate Ari, a Mets fan, said to me "it seems like Matt Holliday already thinks he's on the Mets." Let's be fair, the reason that the Cardinals had the lead in the first place was because of Holliday's home run and Ryan Franklin didn't have to give up another run. So there is blame to go around. But I don't think that will diminish the pain as the image is rebroadcasted of the catch (and maybe some Dewey-Truman-esque headlines). The one person who is probably happy? Luis Castillo who's dropped pop-up against the Yankees pales in comparison and significance. Adam Wainwright (who pitched brilliantly in a wasted effort) said it was the towels, but Matt Holliday said it was the light. I guess that's manning up, but it's still a loss. Let's see how the "best fans in baseball" react to him down 2-0. The Cards are indeed playing like their division rivals, the Cubs. Although victory dropped into the Dodgers' laps, let's give some credit to the Dodgers for not giving up and also their depth as they are on the cusp of another NLCS.

Angels 5, Red Sox 0: Red Sox fans, C.B. Bucknor did not lose this game for you; John Lackey just shut you down. Even if "Constantly Bad" Bucknor didn't make that call, they still would have had to score off of Lackey who out-aced Jon Lester. Lackey is making a play for a big free agent contract after a dominating performance, mixed with some revenge. Big Papi's 3rd strikeout of the game ended things in SoCal and, for one night, seemed to put an end to a hex, shifted the psychology, and made people believe that the Angels may be able to beat the Red Sox. Torii Hunter, a classic bad ball hitter, crushed a bad pitch by Lester (who was not great) and that was that. Now Josh Beckett has a lot of weight on his shoulders after being injured during last year's postseason as he tries to overcome the Angels, the Thunderstix and the Rally Monkey to salvage a split in Anaheim . If the Red Sox can get a game here, it may be tough for the Angels to win in Boston.

Today:

• 6 PM game: Twins @ Yankees - Blackburn vs. Burnett. I've written about the catching situation for AJ, but a few others have their opinion as well. Ian O'Connor considers this an "E-2" for Girardi. Jack Curry says that Posada is a spectator with AJ pitching. The Hartford Courant's Jeff Jacobs says that Posada needs to settle down and I agree with him; there's a fine line between being vocal about wanting to play and being a whiny cancer in the clubhouse by making this awkward for everyone involved. Sam Borden has Jose Molina's take and Joe Girardi's take on the situation. More in a little bit on this game before I head down to the Stadium
• Late game: Red Sox @ Angels - Josh Beckett vs. Jered Weaver. One totally legit criticism I heard about last night's game was that TBS couldn't get anything right as FanGraphs talks about: they went to commercial at the wrong times, they missed replays and graphics, and they just seemed a bit off, especially coming back from commercial late. Between that and Chip Caray's "verbal slump" as The New York Times calls it, TBS has had a worse playoff start than Matt Holliday and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Back later with more...

Quick Review of Yesterday's Games: ALDS Day 1

I'll try to do this every day (if I can) during the playoffs. Get you caught up on the games from the day before with lots of links to accompany it. Here we go on Day 1:

Yankees 7, Twins 2: As we said before, The Yankees won a vintage Yankees playoff game. They followed their blueprint for success, exactly the way they drew it up, and took apart a bad pitcher on a groggy and gassed team. Derek Jeter continued to lead the march and christened the New Yankee Stadium. CC was great and enjoyed the love. A-Rod looked horrible in his first two at-bats and instead of letting bad get worse, he got himself back on track and off the snide. Maybe it was Mr. October who finally helped A-Rod. The question is now can A-Rod build on his solid start (because, as we all know, he still has work to do)? Can the Yankees continue to pound the Twins? If A.J. Burnett is on tomorrow night, it may not matter and it may equal short trip to the playoffs for the Twinkies, especially with the American Idle himself, Carl Pavano, going in Game 3 for Minnesota.

Phillies 5, Rockies 1: When I picked the Phillies to just sneak by the Rockies, it was because I was worried about the Phillies having to go to their bullpen, knowing full-well that their starting pitching and hitting was superior. Well I can see Charlie Manuel's game plan now: Cliff Lee pitched a complete game (and savored the moment) and every player in Manuel's lineup got a hit, including Lee. That's one way not to use your bullpen. Lee's strategy was clear too: throw first-pitch strikes and pitch off the fastball. This was a good way to start a title defense and quiet the critics who wanted Cole Hamels to start Game 1 over Lee. The Phillies didn't lose at home last postseason and they're now 1-0 there. Some are suggesting that the Rockies change up their lineup, maybe benching Brad Hawpe. But this could be over fairly quickly if Hamels does his thing in Game 2.

Dodgers 5, Cardinals 3: Well that was a shocker, no? The Cardinals took a Cy Young candidate into a pitchers park and he didn't pitch very well at all. Matt Kemp's home run to center field was an absolute blast. It all worked out for the best for the Dodgers as the swagger is back, along with the big hits (though they did, amazingly, still strand 16 runners). In total, the teams set a division series record leaving 30 runners on base. For the Cardinals, the big hits were elusive (maybe that had to do with Albert Pujols being walked intentionally in his first two ABs). The winners escape the scrutiny when men are left on base, the losers do not.In the end, it was the longest game in division series history. The Dodgers relief stood out as well. The good news for the Cardinals? They get to throw out their other Cy Young candidate, Adam Wainwright, in Game 2.

Today:

• Early game: Colorado @ Philadelphia Game 2 (Cook vs. Hamels)
  
• 6 PM game: St. Louis @ Los Angeles NL Game 2 (Wainwright vs. Kershaw)
  
• Late game: Red Sox @ Los Angeles AL Game 1 (Lester vs. Lackey) - Baseball Musings has a preview
• Yankees and Twins have a workout day
  

ALDS Postseason Predictions

Time again for my expert MLB predictions:

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees:

Is it better to be hot or to be a better team? Minnesota has now won 17 out of 21 to get into the playoffs and their similarities to the 2007 Rockies are eerily close. They have one of the best hitters in baseball, a rocking bandbox of a park that should provide them homefield advantage, and the dreaded "nobody believed in us factor". That being said, I can't see them pulling this one out. The Yankees dominate at almost every position and the starting pitching match-ups all favor the Yankees. The Twins are hot and confident right now so I can see them pulling out a game. But I see the Yankees continuing their dominance over the Twins from this regular season and the recent playoffs and so I'm taking the Yankees in 4.

Joe Girardi breaks down the Twins (via Tyler Kepner). Sam Borden says that the Yankees have chemistry in mass quantities...and a great graphic to go with it.


Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:

Despite my joking around about rule changes, the rules will stay in effect...and the Angels will run on the Red Sox. How do the Red Sox stop that? Don't allow baserunners. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett are strikeout pitchers who need to limit the guys they allow on base. If Boston can take one of the first two games of the series in Anaheim, the Angels may be in a bit of trouble. This has not been a kind match-up to the Angels in the past few years, and I do see this team as being different, but if they couldn't beat the Red Sox last year with Mark Teixeira and K-Rod, I don't think they'll have much more success with Kendry Morales and Brian Fuentes. Jonathan Papelbon walks the tightrope, but he gets out of it. Fuentes I don't have that much faith in...especially in Fenway. I've gone back-and-forth in this series, but I think, in the end, we'll see the Red Sox pull it out in 5.

Not surprisingly, 5 out of 6 Boston Globe sportswriters picked Boston, according to the LA Times. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer picks the Red Sox in 4. Ken Rosenthal thinks that the Angels will run all over the Red Sox and win in 5.

Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies:

These two teams have good pitching staffs, but I predict a lot of runs in this series because they both play in huge offensive parks. These are the last two NL pennant winners so both have playoff experience. But I believe the Phillies winning it all last year will give them that added advantage here. The one problem for the Phillies has to be their closer as Brad Lidge has not been the same guy who was perfect all of last year. But Cliff Lee has the ability to go all the way and I think the Phillies do as well so I got the Phillies eeking by 3-2.

Ed Price from AOL FanHouse says that the weather could wreak havoc on this series (a la last year's World Series). A former Yankee could be part of the postseason roster for the Phils, according to the Philadelphia Daily News.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers:

What is more important? Starting pitching or relief pitching? St. Louis has Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter going in games 1 and 2. Los Angeles has a deep bullpen in front of Jonathan Broxton. Both teams have big hitters in the middle of the lineup: MannyBeingManny vs. Sir Albert, Matt Kemp vs. Matt Holliday, etc. I've been back-and-forth on this series. I just think that, in the end, superior starting pitching wins playoff games. The Dodgers have been just going through the motions in the second half and I'm not sure they can flip the switch. I'm going to go against my original gut and pick the Cards in 5.

Sean Forman picks the Dodgers because he says the Cardinals played much worse competition the entire season and the Dodgers were legitimately a 95-win team and the best team in the NL by a wide margin. The New York Times has some more NL storylines.

Other "experts":

• Sam Borden has the Yankees in 3, the Phillies in 4, the Dodgers in 5 and the Angels in 5.
• LyfLines uses a "scientific" formula and has the Yankees (in a sweep), Red Sox, Rockies and Cardinals (H/T Rob Neyer)
• Jayson Stark picks the Yankees to go all the way
  

ESPN's World Series predictions:

• 15 have the Yankees winning the World Series, 4 have the Cardinals, and 3 have the Red Sox
• 18 have the Yankees winning the AL Pennant, 3 have the Red Sox and 1 has the Angels
• 11 have the Cards winning the NL Pennant, 5 have the Phillies, 5 have the Dodgers, and 1 has the Rockies
• Not one person predicted the Yankees to lose in the first round

What do you think? Post your predictions below!

My NFL Predictions

No money-backed guarantee, but here's how I see the 2009 season shaping out:

10 truths

1. Drew Brees is a compiler. He'll have great stats. The team will still be pretty bad when it counts most
   
2. Kurt Warner and Kerry Collins are still old, ex-Giants QBs. But they will lead their teams to the playoffs.
3. San Diego will win the AFC West, not because they're great, but because they get to play Kansas City and Oakland twice
   
4. Speaking of old guys, it doesn't matter what Brett Favre does; Adrian Peterson was just fine being AP without a QB and will be fine regardless of Favre
   
5. T.O. will be upset being in Buffalo before the bye week
6. Tampa Bay is a mess right now and will still be a mess when the season comes to a close
7. Don't believe what people may say: Denver will miss Jay Cutler
8. Someone will write an article saying that the NFC is better than the AFC. The playoff time will come and we'll realize that's not true
9. Some team will start 3-0, get a lot of press for being much-improved, and then go something like 4-9 to end the season. Trust me, it will happen
10. An injury will happen this week(end) to ensure that someone's fantasy football hopes are done by Monday.

One lie: No one from the NFL will get arrested this season

Predictions (*for Wild Cards, x for teams just missing out on playoffs):

NFC East:

1. Giants
2. Eagles*
3. Redskins x
   
4. Cowboys x
   

NFC North:

1. Packers
2. Vikings*
3. Bears x
   
4. Lions

NFC South:

1. Falcons
2. Panthers x
   
3. Saints
4. Bucs

NFC West:

1. Cardinals
2. Seahawks
3. Rams
4. 49ers

NFC Championship: Giants over Eagles

AFC East:

1. Patriots
2. Dolphins x
   
3. Jets
4. Bills

AFC North:

1. Steelers
2. Ravens *
3. Bengals
4. Browns

AFC South:

1. Titans
2. Colts *
3. Texans
4. Jaguars

AFC West:

1. Chargers
2. Broncos x
   
3. Raiders
4. Chiefs

AFC Championship: Steelers over Patriots

Super Bowl: Steelers over Giants
MVP: Adrian Peterson

Of course, we'll probably get a Jets/Bucs Super Bowl and throw all my predictions out of the water. But, in the words of Chris Berman: That's why they play the game!

Agree? Disagree? Thoughts?

San Francisco Giants Need Some Offense

If you hadn't noticed, the San Francisco Giants just swept the AL West-leading Texas Rangers. Tonight, Barry Zito took a no-hitter into the seventh to finish off that sweep. The Giants are 11-2 in home series so far this season. They are now 36-31 and leading a crowded NL Wild Card race. After the game, Zito declared the Giants "a real threat".

But are they really (I think they're officially done with the division, but Wild Card-wise)? As the FanHouse article says:

It's still too early to officially say the Giants can hold off teams like the Mets, Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs over the final three months. This sweep of the Rangers also comes with the disclaimer that Texas' vaunted offense was slumping even before the DH-less Rangers arrived at pitcher-friendly AT&T Park.

That said, holding any American League team to seven runs in three games and beating one of the AL's ERA leaders (Kevin Millwood) has earned the Giants the right to, for the moment, strut a little.

Well pitching really isn't a problem for this team. Tim Lincecum (6-2, 2.72 ERA) and Matt Cain (9-1, 2.28 ERA) are a crazy-good 1-2 punch. Lincecum was last year's NL Cy Young and Matt Cain is pushing to be this years' with a tie for the NL lead with 9 wins so far. Both pitchers are in the top 5 in the NL in ERA and Win-Loss %. Lincecum is 7th in WHIP and Cain 7th in hits per 9 innings. Lincecum is 2nd in K's per 9 innings, 4th in SO/BB, and 3rd in HR per 9 innings pitched. And Barry Zito and Randy Johnson have shown flashes of brilliance as well, (though Zito and Jonathan Sanchez have also struggled at times).

The bullpen is really good too (though Cain has decided to forgo them 3 times so far this season, leading the NL in complete games). Like really good. They've had 6 pitchers pitch in 20 games this season and each one has an ERA+ over 100 (league average), led by an unheralded, but great free agent pick-up, Jeremy Affeldt with a 1.65 ERA in a team-leading 32 games. Closer Brian Wilson converting 19 saves, including his past 10 opportunities.

But the biggest problem on this team is the offense. Via FanHouse:

This is still a team that relies on Bengie Molina as its cleanup hitter. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who had two more hits on Sunday to raise his average to .338, is a candidate for the All-Star Game. Rowand has been reborn since a move to the leadoff spot, hitting .371 over his past 32 games.

After that, though, the Giants don't have a player hitting better than .268. Rowand, Molina and Sandoval are the only players with more than four homers.

That's only the beginning of the problems. Sandoval and Rowand are the only two hitters who have OPS+ over 100 (league average). So that means that 7 out of the 9 hitters they're throwing out there every day are below league average. Out of 16 NL teams, they came in to today's action 15th in runs, 10th in hits, 14th in HR, 16th in BB, 16th on OBP, 15th on SLG, and 15th in OPS.

It would seem that they would need more than one hitter to cure this offense. Maybe Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn from Washington or Mark DeRosa and Victor Martinez from Cleveland would do the trick. Or maybe going across the Bay to Oakland for Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi. Or within the division for Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins (hoping he'll be able to revert to 2006/2007 Atkins in a new surrounding).

I don't know who (if anyone) they will end up acquiring, but they have two premium pitching prospects--Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson--to trade, and they'll need to do something soon if they hope to hold off the Mets, Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs.

YES!

Well my square came up in the end Pittsburgh 27 - Arizona 23

$300

It wasn't a great game, but a great ending. Back and forth and some great catches but the Steelers prevailed in the end. Amazing.

Commercials were OK. QB play was very good. WRs did a great job. The Boss did a nice job. Defense was lacking, especially at the end of the game. Pittsburgh almost blew a double digit lead, but prevailed and made me a few bones.

Overall, fun times.

McNabb Stat

From the blackberry version of ESPN.com:

Did you know?
Donovan McNabb had a QB rating of 2.2 in the first half of the NFC Championship Game

A Rare QB Matchup

So the questions was posed to me by Wolinsky: when was the last time that two quarterbacks faced each other in the Super Bowl each already with Super Bowl rings?

So up until Super Bowl XLIII begins in two weeks with Kurt Warner against Big Ben, the last time (and only time) that I could find a Super Bowl that the two QBs already had rings was Super Bowl XIII in 1979. In that game, Roger Staubach and Terry Bradshaw battled it out in Florida. 30 years later (also in Florida), we finally have that matchup again. I think this speaks volumes to the parity in football...even before free agency began.

Amazing

Gladly Wrong About the Cardinals

Congrats to the Arizona Cardinals who made the Super Bowl by the skin of their teeth (there's that phrase again). After jimmying the television at the treadmill next to me at the gym so that I could watch the game without listening to the broadcast (got it to the correct channel, pulled out the plug to disable the auto shutoff from the remote...it's very Jack Bauer-esque--at least in my mind).

I say gladly wrong, because with my luck, I felt like picking against the Cards was actually a good omen for them to win the game. The Cards continue to prove all doubters (including me) wrong...amazing...

The biggest play of the 1st half was the fleaflicker from Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald. I admit I turned it off after the Cards kicked the field goal heading into halftime. I thought it was over and didn't want to see an Eagles comeback if it wasn't. I didn't think we would see the Eagles take the lead...and then the Cardinals drive to take it back.

Kurt Warner showed that he's back to his MVP form of almost a decade ago and Larry Fitzgerald made a case to be considered the best wide receiver in the game.

Just saw Joe "Cool" Flacco throw the INT to Troy Polamalu who cut back all the way across the field to probably put the seal on the game...though after the way the Cardinal game went, anything is possible.

Maybe my prediction of Joe Cool's road superiortiy coming to an end will finally come through...bad throw there in that situation, but nice job by the Steelers creating a lot of pressure on him.

More later...

Football Predictions: Championship Games

Ok...so here it goes: I'm not going to watch the NFC Championship game. I can't. Maybe I'll take a peek. But since the football season began, I've been sitting in my couch every Monday night and all-day Sunday (and recently Saturdays). I need a break. I can't watch this game. I hate the Eagles with a passion (I only hate the Cowboys more in football)...and the problem is that the Eagles are following the EXACT formula the Giants followed last season: especially the fact that I thought they would lose in each and every game. So I'm going to sit that game out...but it doesn't mean I can't pick it. (actually, if you go based on the ridiculous rules that ESPN or NBC has on people broadcasting games can't pick them online...well...I just don't understand that rule or how it applies, so let's forget that).

3 p.m. ET, FOX

Philadelphia (9-6-1, 2-0) at Arizona (9-7, 2-0)

Yeah...I screwed this one up. I never saw those two games last week coming. I though there was no way this game wasn't going to be Giants/Panthers and now neither of those teams are here (Michael Lombardi lists 5 things that still bother him from last weekend...worth a read). I listed 5 reasons why the Eagles could win and so did Erik. So let's go through those now and figure out what happened and how that applies to this game...

1) The Eagles are the only team left in the playoff who have beaten the Giants this season. It ended up being a huge factor. The Eagles went into a loud and windy Giants Stadium and beat them. You think they'll be intimidated by the University of Phoenix Stadium? Nope. They already beat the Cardinals once this season...and they really beat them. (Need to link to this article again here...wow.)

2) The Eagles are hot and the Giants have been sitting. This proved to be huge in the Eagles last game (the Giants were really flat and the Eagles controlled the energy). This could prove to be a factor because of the closeness of the games the Eagles have played while the Cardinals coasted through the last round.

3) Brian Westbrook. I'm still amazed at how ineffective Westbrook has been in the playoffs and how the Eagles have managed to win two games. I think he needs to be a little more effective in this game to win, though if McNabb can throw for 4 TDs again, it won't really matter.

4) Special Teams. Yeah...well. The Giants couldn't score a TD on that first kickoff because Bradshaw wouldn't run down Akers. They had two huge penalties on punts. And they missed two field goals. I think I was dead on. DeSean Jackson is a big weapon to use again Arizona in this game.

5) Because the Eagles have that "underdog that no one believed in" feeling among them. This one is probably in both teams in this game. This is my one worry for the Eagles...I think they're too confident. McNabb thinks he's amazing, the team is favored on the road in the playoffs, and the city of Philly is rolling right along. This is usually when they get kicked right in the nuts. We'll see what happens this time.

and from Erik...

1) Philly DBs are better than the Giants WRs. Yeah...he was dead on here. This game, however, it may be switched. The Eagles need (NEED) to do a good job of covering Larry Fitzgerald and getting pressure on Kurt Warner. Warner will fumble and throw INTs if you can get some contact with him. The key is getting there. Jim Johnson will probably throw some DBs on blitz packages. They need to make sure when they do, Fitzgerald is adequately covered.

2) The Eagles will blitz and get in Manning's face. Yup...and this is the KEY for the Eagles: get in Warner's face.

3) Tuck has not been playing to his potential. Erik hit this right on the head. Tuck has been injured for a while but has been able to play through it...mostly because of inferior offensive lines. The Eagles did not allow a sack to the Giants all season and the 3rd and 20 the Giants let up to the Eagles was because of a lack of pressure on the QB. The Cardinals need to make sure to get to McNabb so he doesn't feel comfortable in the pocket. The Ravens were able to kill McNabb this season because they were able to get to him. The Cards need to make it there too...

4) Philly Special Team: got this one too...

5) David Akers: He kicked it straight through and John Carney had trouble. Enough said.

So I'm going to pick the Eagles. Big surprise. The Giants last year beat a tough team in the first round, their division rivals and the #1 seed in the second round, and then went on the road again in a noisy stadium against a veteran QB in the 3rd round...sound familiar? I'm hoping the Eagles don't do it. I really am. But their defense has been great and they've been getting enough on offense to win. Arizona certainly has a chance in this game, but they need to do it on the air and get to McNabb on defense. And I figure I'm probably jinxing Philly by picking them... Final Score: Eagles 36 - Cardinals 28.

6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Baltimore (11-5, 2-0) at Pittsburgh (12-4, 1-0)

If you think the Eagles are like the Giants--look at the Ravens. They played a close first round game, beat a division rival and 1st seed in the second round, now they're going on the road to a frigid, hostile environment to play a #2 seed...sound even more familiar? But I'm going to pick them to lose. Here's why:

The Ravens should never have won last week. The Titans handed them that game. On a silver platter. I don't believe the fact that Joe Flacco beat a very similar team in a similar spot last week. He had one good pass (a bomb to Mason) and otherwise was kept much in check. And Pittsburgh has Troy Polamalu who is a difference-maker. There are some injury concerns on Pittsburgh (Polamalu, "Big Ben", and a few others) but they all seem like they're going to play. It's supposed to snow in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Steelers beat the Ravens twice this season...but both times by 3 points. It'll be interesting to see if they can distance themselves enough to cover.

But I think that a rookie QB, on the road, in the snow, on a team that's been relying on the passing game is not a winning combination. I've been wrong before. But Pittsburgh was the one team that I got right last week and since the Giants played them in Week 8 on the regular season, I felt that they should be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. Willie Parker is running as well as he has all season and if that continues in this game, Steelers should win easily. Final Score: Steelers 20 - Ravens 13.

*(No money-backed guarantee offered on these picks)

Whaaaaaa Happened?

So I decided after the Titans lost (The Ravens didn't win, the Titans lost...awful), that it was a good time to go out and get some food. So in the middle of my Thai food I decided to check the score of the Carolina/Arizona and saw it was 7-0 Carolina. Just as I predicted.

Then I came home to see it was 30-7 Cardinals. The Arizona Cardinals. Are you kidding me? I was worried about Jake Delhomme throwing up a stinker (a nice 11.51 passer rating...wow), but wow...amazing. I was DEAD wrong about this game. I admit it (Paul, you can revel in my wrongness).

This is even more incentive for the Giants to just put away the Eagles tomorrow and face the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game. Think about this also. In 2000 the Ravens beat the Titans in the playoffs. In 2000 the Super Bowl was in Tampa Bay. In 2000 the Giants had a first round bye and played the Eagles in the Divisional Round (in the "Jason Sehorn Game"). The Giants faced the Ravens in the Super Bowl that year. Everything is the same this year. Let's hope the Giants have better Super Bowl results (Eli doesn't seem the betting--or drinking-- type).

So the Cards will play in the NFC Championship game. Even more amazingly, if the Eagles win, the Cardinals will HOST the NFC Championship game.

I hate to declare it this early, especially since Arizona's biggest problem is closing games. But a 23 point lead is a pretty amazing and surprising start. Do you think that the Panthers were looking a little far ahead? They probably figured they were ticketed for the NFC Championship game. They've lost this one so far without much of a fight.

Speaking of losing games for yourself, how the Titans handed the Ravens the game today will never cease to amaze me. They were given every chance to win that game but turnovers, horrible execution in Ravens territory, a ridiculous amount of penalties (especially for a Jeff Fischer team), and one bad call by the zebras at the end (how that was not a delay of game amazes me).

Divisional Round Previews

Figured it was time...here we go...my "fearless" predictions for the Divisional Round (with an extended Giants preview in a future post). I went back and forth on each of these picks. A lot. But here we go...

Sat., Jan. 10, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Baltimore (11-5, 1-0) at Tennessee (13-3)


The first game of the week has the closest point spread of the week. Amazingly all four of these divisional matchups already occurred in the regular season. And all four had somewhat fluky outcomes (with wins of 1, 2, 4, and 5 points). Throw out the records, these two teams are about as even as they come (as Bill Simmons pointed out in today's column) In their first matchup, Kerry Collins marched the Titans down the field on an 80-yard touchdown drive to win. This one was aided by a personal foul penalty...which really was just incidental contact. That was part of 169 yards of penalties racked up in this game. The difference was in the QBs. Collins was able to get past his Ravens nightmares from the 2000 Superbowl (with absolutely no proof to back up his claim, my dad still swears that Collins bet against the Giants that game...and, really, looking back at the tape, it doesn't seem so far-fetched). With the Ravens needing a score to tie it up, Joe Flacco threw an INT to end the game. There's your difference. And this game is being played in Tennessee. The notion that home-field advantage means nothing seems to be thrown out in the Divisional Round, according to Gregg Easterbrook: "Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, home teams in the divisional round are 55-17, a .764 winning percentage." Now weigh that against Bill Simmons writing that home-field advantage has left the building. But this is the Divisional Round so I'll let Easterbrook have this one. And it seems that rain is in the forecast tomorrow, but should subside by the afternoon, leaving the field and the balls a little slick. My guess is that you see a really good defensive battle that dictates the pace of the game. Turnovers galore. And the running games will account for many more yards in this game than in the previous matchup. Chris Johnson is a better running back than anything that Tennessee will throw out there against them, and Tennessee is getting healthy right when they need to be. Either team can win this game. I think you have to go with veterans, home field advantage, and against the very, very trendy pick. A veteran coach, a veteran QB, and a slight edge in RB will allow the Titans to win this game. Final score: Titans 17 - Ravens 12.

Sat., Jan. 10, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Arizona (9-7, 1-0) at Carolina (12-4)


The problem for me in this game is not to predict who will win (I think Carolina has this one), but to see if Carolina can beat the 10 point spread their up against. These teams met earlier in the season and it was a matchup of QBs that were former teammates...in NFL Europe. But both Delhomme and Warner had great games and put their team in position to win. The Panthers were down in the game, but a 65-yard pass to Steve Smith helped the Panthers hold off the Cardinals. Carolina was 8-0 at home. Arizona was both terrible on the road and, according to the critics, may not have won a game on the East Coast since the Lincoln administration. Showers are also expected for this game. I think this benefits Carolina. Arizona relies on their passing game way too much. Even when Arizona had success running the ball, as they did in the beginning of the Wild Card game, they inexplicably decided to go away from it. Dumb coaching won't get you too far in the playoffs either. Arizona had one player who rushed for more than 17 yards in the first matchup: Anquan Boldin, a wide receiver. Arizona's problem is playing from behind...especially in bad weather. When they're at home, they seem to be a different team than on the road, where the elements can get to them (see Foxboro, Mass. and the snow). Pat Yasinskas breaks down the showdown of the WRs here very nicely. The key to this game will be establishing the defense to stop these WRs and the two-headed running attack of the Panthers. In their first playoff game, the Cards were able to impressively stop Michael Turner and "Matty Ice". Turner seemed to be running in slow motion. Every run. Watch it again. In super-slow-mo, I doubt you can even see him moving. Carolina is well coached, confident, need Delhomme to minimize his mistakes and play within his game. And one factor, reported by Mike Sando, sent me over the top: "Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa get the call for Fox when the Cardinals face the Panthers in an NFC divisional playoff game Saturday at Bank of America Stadium...The Cardinals are 0-3 when Albert, Johnston and Siragusa work their games this season." There it is. The Cardinals are distracted by the fact that "Moose" and "Goose" hate each other's guts. Hate each other. If you've watched their broadcasts this season, they can't stand each other. They put Goose down on the field so that they don't kill each other. I'm convinced of that. I think this is the Panthers game...but will it be more than 10 points? I think it will be exactly 10. Final score: Panthers 30 - Cardinals 20.

Sun., Jan. 11, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Philadelphia (9-6-1, 1-0) at N.Y. Giants (12-4)

I'll get to this one in the next post. But I need to get this out here: what the hell is wrong with Andy Reid. I've never thought that highly of him. But then he showed up on Sunday like he'd been drinking all week, slept on a sidewalk, got woken up by a policeman, worshipped the porcelain, ate a box of donuts, splashed some water in his face, put on a sweatsuit and showed up on the sidelines. I was growing a playoff beard until I realized the Philly craze around playoff beards. I mean look at this. I'm done. I'm shaving before this game. Like right when I get home. I can't believe I tried to grow this beard. I figured it'd be like the NHL playoffs. No more. There's not a change I'm going to be caught looking like Reid did. No I understand his constant challenging: Bloody Mary breaks. Makes perfect sense. He can't drink Bloody Mary's while the refs are looking so while they're under the hood, he's getting one of his assistance to grab one for him. How many times do you think they checked his credentials before they let him on the field? Do you think his hangover was bothered by the volume of the Metrodome? And this guy is supposedly a master coach? Well one of his "disciples", Brad Childress, made some of the dumbest coaching moves and handed his former "mentor" the last game. An offensive holding call? Childress declined it! 4th and inches and the worst return coverage in football against an explosive return man? Punt it! Have the NFL leading rusher and your best player and need to come from behind? Put him on the sideline! How/why did he give the Eagles this game? The Giants should be playing Arizona in this game. The Giants played their butts off down the stretch, and especially in that EPIC game against Carolina to get home-field advantage and the #1 seed. For what? So they could play the Eagles in round 2? Noooo. They wanted to play a team like the Cardinals or the Falcons or the Bucs or the Bears...NOT the Eagles. As a Giants fan, this is punishment for Plaxico Burress. I'm telling you, he had something to do with it. I'm as sure of that as my dad was that Collins threw away the Superbowl. Or maybe not. The truth really is that I can't see the Giants losing this game. Maybe that's just denial. Maybe I just don't want Wolinsky to cry. Final Score: Giants 24 - Eagles 17.

Sun., Jan. 11, 4:45 p.m. ET, CBS
San Diego (8-8, 1-0) at Pittsburgh (12-4)


There were 12,837 NFL games played before one ended up in a 11-10 score as the earlier matchup between these two teams did (the truth is that the refs botched a call and it should have been 18-10, but the refs wanted to be involved in history as well). That game left the Chargers 4-6 overall and 0-13 in Pittsburgh in their history. Read that again: 0-13. Not one win. The last one was played on a snowy Sunday and this one looked to be snowy until recent forecasts seem to call for a break in the precipitation for Sunday. If it snows, Pittsburgh wins. If it doesn't the Chargers have a chance. It's as simple as that. Teams do not do well coming from warm weather climates into the cold and snow. San Diego started the season 4-8. Read that again: 4-8. And what team did they turn their season around by rallying back from a 21-3 deficit? The same team where their margin of victory in both matchups was exactly 1? The Kansas City Chiefs. Read that again: +2 points on the season against the Kansas City Chiefs. And this is the team everyone is predicting to win? The team that somehow fell behind 21-3 against the Chiefs? The Steelers lost 4 games all season. They lost to the Eagles (made the playoffs), Giants (made the playoffs), Colts (made the playoffs), and Titans (made the playoffs). The Steelers biggest concerns are the health of Ben Roethlisberger and establishing a running game. The latter is certainly important, as the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote, Pittsburgh needs to get back to their reputation as a power running team. If Willie Parker can run the ball (he ran for 115 in their first matchup) and the Steelers defense can limit Sproles with LDT out, this should be a Steeler win. BTW, Sproles was not as good as his numbers showed. Don't get me wrong, he was good, but he wasn't GREAT. He didn't dominate. Many of those yards came on special teams. And Indy's run defense was always their most suspect part of their game, anyway (in Indy's 17 games this season, they only had the leading rusher in the game twice...and once was in the last game with all the players resting for Tennessee). The Colts let Fred Taylor gain 121 yards against them this season. Fred Taylor? Pittsburgh had the best defense in the league this past season. The problem is that the past 3 years, the Chargers have killed me either way I've bet on them. I may have won 20% of the time on their games. I hate betting on this 6 1/2 point line. Remember when Allen died on Entourage and the guys said it was horrible, but really all the viewers and Drama knew it wasn't? That'll be what happens when the Chargers are finally eliminated. Let's just hope that what occurs is not another Smoke Jumpers...anyways, I was going to take the points in this one but will listen to Bill Simmons that I should not pick an underdog in the playoffs unless I think they can win. I want to take an underdog, I really do, but I do like all the favorites. Add up the bold passages in this section. It adds up to a Steeler win. Final Score: Steelers 21 - Chargers 14.