Who Will Make the Hall Of Fame? AL East Edition

I always find it fun to go through rosters and figure out which current players will be Hall of Famers. It's always tough to project how some players will play during the line, and even harder to figure out who will stay healthy. But it's always interesting debate. This will be guys who are currently on teams or who are still free agents/retired but finished the year on a team (since there is a Hall of Fame unemployment line). We'll break this down into four categories:

The first group is sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famers, guys who, if they retired tomorrow, would make the Hall of Fame. The second are probable Hall of Famers, guys who should make it as long as they continue along their path or guys who may not make it the first ballot, but will be in eventually. The third are guys that are just short of the Hall of Fame but could get in if they have some big years. The fourth are guys who are really young, but seem like they could be on the Hall of Fame path.

Let's get going:

New York Yankees

Category 1
Alex Rodriguez. Who cares about the ring? This guy is a three time MVP who may be the best player in the game over the past decade.

Mariano Rivera. Did you know he had the best WHIP of his career last year? He's the best closer ever. Maybe the best postseason pitcher ever. And no doubt he's a Hall of Famer.

Derek Jeter. He's less than 500 hits from 3,000...and no matter how people view offensive stats in this era, 3,000 hits is still Hall of Fame material. He should have those 3,000 hits in less than 2 1/2 years under his current average of 219 hits a season. As a shortstop, I think he's first ballot Hall of Fame right now.

Category 2
Mike Mussina. He's a Hall of Famer, although maybe not on the first ballot. For those naysayers who wanted to keep him out for not winning 20 games, they've lost their last argument. His pitching statistics in the steroid era were Hall of Fame worthy, especially pitching in the AL East all of his career.

Category 3
Jorge Posada. He may need a few more seasons to state his case. But his offensive statistics for a catcher are pretty amazing. He's in the top 30 of active players in OBP, BBs, Adjusted Batting Runs, and Batting Wins. For a catcher, that's pretty amazing.

C.C. Sabathia. He's 28 with a Cy Young, 117 wins, and a track record that he gets better every year. Being a lefty in Yankee Stadium should help him out as will the run support from the Yankee lineup and having Mariano at the end to close out his games. And he always pitches better under the bright lights (sans the postseason)--his ERA+ after joining the Brewers last year was 260.

Mark Texeira. He's already 28 as well, and that could hurt both Tex and C.C. But if you believe he's just hitting his prime and he can win some MVPs while playing under the bright lights of New York and put up big numbers hitting around the A-rods and Jeters of the world...maybe

Ivan Rodriguez. Probably will never get in with the steroids cloud hanging over his head. But if he can find a way to bounce back in the next few years post steroid testing, then maybe the voters will find a way to get him in, considering his position, his arm and his offensive prowess during the late 90s.

Category 4
Joba Chamberlain. Who knows. But his star is shining bright and he's going to get chances to rack up Ws while he's on the Yankees...as long as he can stay healthy.


Boston Red Sox

Category 1
John Smoltz. He just signed with Boston, so we need to put him on this list. He "only" had 210 wins...but he also had 154 saves. He won a Cy Young (going 24-8) and then saved 55 games and didn't win. He had 3000 Ks and pitched for one of the most dominant teams of the 1990s. And he also pitched 207 innings in the postseason going 15-4 with 4 saves, 2 complete games, and a 2.65 ERA. And he's still not done. He got shadowed by playing with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, but he was no less important to the success of that team.

Category 2
Curt Schilling. I don't care what he says about himself (have you ever heard someone so self aggrandizing talk about themselves in this way?). The guy will probably end up being a Hall of Famer...eventually. He never won a Cy Young but was the runner up 3 times (to Randy Johnson twice and Johan Santana once) and came in 4th once. He was a huge part in three world series wins (twice for Boston and once for Arizona). He had a .597 winning %. His career K/BB ratio of 4.38 is the best mark in post 1900 baseball. He's in the top 10 of many active pitching categories including WHIP, BB/9 IP, K/9 IP, Ks, Innings, and Shutouts. He's a Hall of Famer according to all the Baseball-Reference.com's Hall of Fame monitors. He will get hurt by only have 216 wins, but I think this guy is a Hall of Famer...even though he's a world-class jerk.

Category 3
David Ortiz. I debated back and forth with myself over whether he was Category 2 or 3. But there's no doubt that he's close...and needs a few years more of success to get in. Last year was a bad sign for that as his knees seemed like they're starting to give. But from 2003-2007, he was in the top 5 of the MVP voting and was a Hall-of-Fame-caliber player. But the problem, as shown with the Jim Rice election, is that 5 years of Hall-of-Fame-caliber play is not a Hall of Fame player. He doesn't reach any of the Hall of Famer monitors on Baseball-Reference.com. I think he's still short.

Josh Beckett. I think he needs a lot more years of health and dominance to get there. He's 28, the same age as C.C. Sabathia, but with 24 less wins, and only has one really dominant season. This is a stretch at this point to put him here. But if he can roll off a couple of seasons like his 2007 season and add a few more rings to the two he's already won, he'll make it interesting.

Category 4
Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester. All three are in the same category: great start, but needs many more of those to get into the Hall of Fame. Papelbon has great stats already, but needs to continue on an upward progression and is still young. Pedroia just won an MVP and plays a position that is not known for its offense. Jon Lester is 24, but has a .771 winning % so far.

Tampa Bay Rays

Category 1, Category 2, Category 3
No one.

Category 4
Many candidates. Any of their young players could be in the Hall someday. I think it's just going to be a lot of years until we're able to tell.

Toronto Blue Jays

Category 1
No one.

Category 2
Roy Halladay. He has a Cy Young, and 3 other seasons in the top 5. If "Doc" Halladay pitches his entire career in the AL East and continues to do what he's done (a .665 winning %) while staying healthy, he should make the Hall. He's 31, so if he continues on this path for another decade, his stats could look similar to a Smoltz- or Schilling-type. He also is a rare starter in today's game who constantly finishes what he starts with 40 career complete games. Of players currently on teams, only John Smoltz and Randy Johnson have more complete game--and they have 85 years between them. Let's put this in perspective: Roy Halladay had as many complete games last season as Johan Santana has had in HIS ENTIRE CAREER. Wow

Category 3
Scott Rolen. I think he's short despite all the Gold Gloves. But if he can find a way to play well the next 7 years or so (he's only 33), he'll make it interesting.

Category 4
None. One could emerge, but none right now.

Baltimore Orioles

I really don't think the Orioles have anyone in any of the categories. A sad state for a team that once had Cal Ripken, Jr. Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis maybe could someday...but they just don't seem to be on that path.


Agree? Disagree? Thoughts?