Random Thoughts: Super Bowl, 'Melo, Yankees' Signings, and Cano

I had my first experience taking transportation other than a car to or from Boston this weekend and I can tell you it's not so much fun. But while I flew there, I'm taking Megabus on my way back and being blessed with spotty WiFi, I felt it a good time to blog. I know I've been absent from the blog for a while but I've been transitioning to a new [day] job and haven't had the time I would like to pump out great blog posts for the NYaT audience. So here's a bunch of random sports thoughts as I figure out how to get this guy's job as a ticket broker (H/T Zack):

I'm rooting with the rest of the Cheeseheads for Aaron Rodgers (NYP)

My Super Bowl Team

I don't think I'm alone rooting for the Packers tonight in the Super Bowl. I think while most of the time people root for a team, this battle is a battle of quarterback personalities. While Big Ben has become a hard-to-root-for quarterback with his off-the-field issues, Aaron Rodgers is about as easy to root for as a QB can be. He sat on the bench and didn't complain while Brett Favre did his annual retirement dance and the year that Favre had his personal downfall as a person and player, Rodgers is about to assert himself among the best QBs in the NFL. And if you look at the past 5 Super Bowls, the better story always won, though none will top the Drew Brees taking the post-Katrina Saints all the way last year. I think the Packers are going to win but I'm truly just rooting for an entertaining game.

Carmelo Anthony

I've been pretty adamantly against the Knicks double paying for 'Melo (in prospects and then in money) knowing that he's probably going to sign with the Knicks no matter what in the off-season. But after the Cliff Lee saga, I know that something like that is never certain and if the latest rumored offer (Knicks only giving up Wilson Chandler, Anthony Randolph, and Eddy Curry's obese corpse) is really true, I say go for it. They could go small and have a starting 5 of Amare, Raymond Felton, Landry Fields, Gallo, and 'Melo or move Fields to a super 6th man and start Ronny Turiaf or The Mozgov Cocktail in his place. Carmelo may not make the Knicks that much better (he plays even less defense), but for three players who won't be here next year, I think it's a steal. 'Melo has used his leverage and now the Knickerbockers need to take advantage of it.

Yankees' Latest Signings

Read more>>

NYaT Roundtable: AFC Championship Picks

Yesterday we gave our AFC Championship picks and today we're going to pick the AFC Championship game. The Jets and Steelers also played once this season with that game being taken by the Jets. Tonight is the rematch in Pittsburgh, but this time with Troy Polamalu in uniform. Will that make a difference? Let's see what our roundtable had to say:

Can Sanchez lead the Jets to the Super Bowl this time around? (Reuters)

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers favored by 3.5)

Russell: First of all I'd like to welcome everybody back onto the Jets bandwagon, and I'd like to add that more people will be joining us after the Jets beat the Steelers on Sunday. The Jets are soaring after the incredible win against the Patsies and fly in to Pittsburgh to face a team that is very similar to the Jets. Both teams have solid receivers, and running backs and while the Steelers have an advantage at QB, defense wins championships and the Jets D is better then the Steelers O. It will be hard to score points for both sides, but I look for the Jets to win a low scoring battle where Sanchez and the offense will make enough plays to win. Also the football Gods wouldn't tease me by having the Jets go to the AFC championship game 2 years in a row and lose both games, right? Jets

Ben P: If it's any comfort to Jets fans, I've picked against them in the two previous playoff rounds as well. The Jets have played and won two very emotional games. First they beat the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year and then they played their big bad bully of a division rival. Will they have anything left this week? The Jets were able to beat the Steelers earlier this year, but in that game the Steelers were without Polamalu and the Jets scored on a kickoff return and had a safety (fluky much). The Steelers will be able to shut down the Jets running game and force Sanchez to beat them. Sanchez was great last week, but the Steelers will put more pressure on him than the Pats did and will be able to do a better job exposing the loss of Damien Woody at Right Tackle. The Jets Defense has played well against the passing offenses of the Colts and Pats, but the Steelers have a wealth of speed at the receiver position that those other teams didn't. There are few schemes that can slow down Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders. It'll be cold in Pittsburgh. Coach Ryan better make sure his players bring an extra pair of socks. Steelers

Sarah: Steelers/Pats - Oh wait, the Pats aren't in? THE JETS WON LAST WEEK? I abstain. No pick.

Jay: While I refuse to compare the Jets' run this year to the Giants' road winning streak leading up to Super Bowl 42, I have to hand it to Rex Ryan and his team. They have defeated Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road in back-to-back weeks. No easy task. Now all they have to do is finish the job in Pittsburgh against two-time SB champ Ben Roethlisberger. BFD. I actually think the Jets can do it. The key is winning the battle for time of possession by controlling the ball on the ground. If the offensive can eliminate turnovers and Greene/LT can consistently gain yardage, I think the Jets will win. But like the cliche goes, you can't stop Roethlisberger, you can only hope to contain him. Making sure Big Ben doesn't burn them will be the Jets' second key. If they can do that, I think the Jets win in a close game. Jets

Elissa: Jets and Steelers are a toss up b/c of their great defenses. I think Big Ben will give the Jets D more problems than Brady did last week b/c he doesn't go down as easy, but I think if the Jets don't turn the ball over (just like their play last week) they'll beat out the Steelers. Jets

Andrew: The Jets built their team this past off-season to beat the Colts--and they did so. Rex Ryan came in as Jets coach and said the goal was to beat the Patriots--and they did so. You wonder after two emotional wins if the Jets can get back up for yet another game? I'm not so sure they can. They played their championship game last week. They've beaten two teams with great offenses. Now they'll have to find a way to beat one with a great defense. I don't think it'll be so easy for the Jets. Mark Sanchez has been great so far but both the Pats and the Colts rank near the bottom half of the league on defense while the Steelers are probably the best. Sanchez has had success because of the threat of the run game. I don't think the Jets will have the same success running the ball in this game. The Jets have been great on the road but I fear their season will end once again in the AFC Championship game. Steelers

Read more>>

Optimist Prime: Why the Jets Will Beat the Steelers

We'll get to the NYaT roundtable picks later but for now we need to go back to Russell who predicted the Jets would beat the Colts and the Pats. Now he says that they will beat Big Ben and the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Tell 'em why, Russell:

The Empire State Building has been lit up in the Jets green and white

---------------------------
It’s been a fun week for Jets fans. From the incredible win against the Patriots to Bart Scott’s “ANYBODY CAN BE BEAT” interview, excitement is running high as the Jets are once again playing for a berth in the Big Game. This time the Jets fly into Pittsburgh to face a team very similar to themselves, and with the punishing defenses on both sides it should be close. Well Optimist Prime is back again and (real shocker here) says the Jets will beat the Steelers and advance to their Second Super Bowl. Here’s why…

The Jets Will Be Able To Ground And Pound Them

Defensively Pittsburgh only gave up an average of 62.8 yards on the ground during the regular season. That being said the Jets running game has been brilliant so far in the Playoffs, rushing for 152 yards against the Colts and 119 against New England. The Jets can rely on one of the best running back tandems in the NFL with Shonne Greene and LT. The backs play with different styles, which definitely helps the Jets, as they can go from the run you over to get the extra yard style of Greene to the shifty Tomlinson, and frustrate the Steelers defense with long drives. The Jets were able to rush for 106 yards the last time they played Pittsburgh and if they can run the ball successfully they’ll be in good shape.

Sanchez Can Win The Game Too

Sanchez played one of his best games as a pro from the second quarter on of last weeks win in New England. Sanchez passed for 3 touchdowns and 194 yards, and will pick up where he left off this week. Mark has handled blitzing, aggressive defenses like the Steelers pretty well and with the Jets all-pro offensive line he won’t be under siege by the likes of James Harrison. The Steelers defense has actually been pretty average against the pass; they’re twelfth in the league in passing yards against. Joe Flacco was able to shred the Steelers secondary for much of the first half, and if Sanchez can play like Flacco for four quarters not two, the Jets have a good chance at winning.

Read more>>

NYaT Roundtable: Divisional Round NFL Picks

Well that was a fun first weekend of football. The first NYaT Roundtable of the playoffs resulted in Ari, Jay and Ben W taking the cake as the best pickers with Ben P and I bringing up the rear. None of us saw the Seahawks winning that game (though, in my defense, I did say they would cover). Now we're up to the big time as the bye weeks are over and the winners go on to the Conference Championship Game. So which teams will advance? Our NYaT panel gives their opinions:

May The Force be with you, Rex Ryan...
...you're going to need it

New York Jets at New England Patriots (Patriots favored by 9)

Ben P says: "It is always difficult when two team plays each other three times in one year. These teams know eachother very well and in these situations I think the team with superior coaching has the edge. Rex Ryan knows defense and has done an excellent job as the Jets head coach, but there is nobody better than Belichik especially when it comes to gameplanning and adjusting mid-game. The Patriots are too good offensively and if they turn this into a shootout, the Jets will be in big trouble." Patriots

Elissa says: "I can't bring myself to make a prediction for the Jets game. I choose to abstain rather than throw my team under the bus. Instead, I'll take this time to follow Rex Ryan and Cromartie's lead...F*#$ Tom Brady and his ridiculous Justin Bieber hair and F*$# Bill Belichick and his stupid cut off sweatshirts. It's personal!" No pick (but check out her post on the "War of Words")

Sarah says: "I'm TRYING to be classy and say to Jets fans I know- hey we each took a game this year - but let's face it: We are going to STOMP them" Patriots

Ari says: "I wish otherwise, but common sense says Brady mauls them. Cromartie will regret mouthing off with each passing slant strike over the middle that he can't cover. In the battle of 4 letter team name, the one that sounds like Mets sees the same result." Patriots

Jay says: "Nothing that Rex Ryan or Antonio Cromartie can say will change their fate: New England will roll at home. Face it, Jets fans, the 2010 Patriots may be boring, robotic, and soulless, but they are a dominant football team. They won their last 8 games and defeated the Jets 45-3 in their last meeting. Tom Brady hasn't thrown a pick in months and Belichick will be ready for whatever defensive schemes Rex Ryan has cooked up. The Patriots also don't make any mistakes, giving up the ball only 10 times this season (!!) and creating more takeaways than anyone but the Giants. Although the Patriots have the home field advantage, there are some things the Jets can do to help their chances: (1) take advantage of New England's bend-don't-break offensive line and get to Brady, (2) stop the Woodhead/Green-Ellis running attack and force Brady to test Darrelle Revis and Cromartie; and (3) ignore McCourty and have Sanchez attack the weaker parts of the Patriots' secondary. But all that said, I still see New England winning relatively comfortably. Double digits are likely." Patriots

Andrew says: I want to find a way to pick the Jets here but I just can't do it. Rex Ryan and company won their Super Bowl last weekend when they finally beat Peyton Manning and the Colts and I see a huge letdown this week against their divisional rivals. I will say this, though. I think that the Jets will cover. My prediction is that Jet preseason cut (one of the all-time horrible personnel moves by Rex Ryan confirmed by anyone with all their lobes intact who saw Hard Knocks), Danny Woodhead, will scramble on 3rd and 9 with less than two minutes left and the Jets out of timeouts, down by 6. A first down seals the game but anything less makes the Pats punt back to Antonio Cromartie and the Jets. Woodhead scrambles and is about to be met by Cromartie when out of no place Tom Brady runs up, pancakes Cromartie, yells "who is an asshole now?", and Woodhead gets the first by a foot. This is followed by an offseason of jokes that Rex Ryan has now lost twice because of a foot." Patriots

Baltimore Ravens at the Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers favored by 3.5)

Read more>>

A Look at the Giants: Who To Root For In the Playoffs

If you could have told me the Giants would finish with a 10-6 record at the beginning of the season, I would have signed up for it. The same was true after they fell to 1-2 after a dismal home loss against the Titans. But in the end, 10-6 feels like a hugely disappointing season because it knocks them out of the playoffs. The Giants left wins on the New Meadowlands field against the Titans, Cowboys, and, most painful of all, the Eagles--and even one win in those three games would have gotten the Giants into the big dance. But since they aren't there, we're going to do what we did last year and count down from the worst to the best in order to give you a guide of who to root for as a Giants fan in this year's playoffs.

A 7-9 team winning the Super Bowl wouldn't sit well with this Giants fan (ESPN)

12) Philadelphia Eagles

Pretty simple here. Not only are they now the Giants fiercest rivals (with apologies to the Cowboys and Redskins), but the Giants came oh-so-close to beating them twice this year but fell victim to end-of-game collapses. The last game was the worst of all and any prideful Giants fan should be rooting against the Dog Killer and Deshaun Jackson. For the Eagles to even make a Super Bowl they'll have to go through Green Bay, Chicago (at Chicago), and probably Atlanta (at Atlanta). You hope that road is too tough for Michael Vick and company because the Eagles celebrating with the Lombardi trophy at the end of the year will make someone kill Matt Dodge.

11) Seattle Seahawks

There is a huge drop-off from the Eagles to here. Under the current rules a 7-9 team can make the playoffs in the NFL but if the Giants win 3 more games and the Seahawks find an improbable way to win a Super Bowl, well, that's just not right. The reason division winners are given an automatic bid is to make sure that if a division beats up on each other because they're really good, then all the teams aren't punished. And in the NFC South you had that situation where Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay were really good. This is not the same situation. Really good teams win games outside the division. This is a team the Giants beat in their home stadium and this crappy team cannot make it past the first round for any Giants fan's sanity.

10) Chicago Bears

The Giants demolished Jay Cutler and the Bears and it looked like that was going to be the downfall of their season...and now they have a first-round bye? I don't get it. Worse yet is that they couldn't beat the Packers yesterday to help out the Giants. I give them kudos for trying (although I don't understand it considering the hits that Jay Cutler took) but their failure doesn't help the position on this list. And between Jay Cutler and Devin Hester, this is not a likable team for Giants fans. Anyone who has watched football the past few years knew Cutler was throwing a pick to end the game yesterday. Can't root for a QB like that.

9) New York Jets

Read more>>

Ask a Doctor: Does SI's Big Ben Frontal Lobe Argument Hold Water?

Yesterday Ben posted a story from Sports Illustrated on the blog about how Big Ben's "deviant" behavior may have been caused by frontal lobe injury. I decided to ask our resident blog expert, neurologist Cynthia Brown, MD, who we had consulted previously on Ben Roethlisberger when his concussion issues popped up during the season and the question is whether he should play or not. So we borrowed Cynthia from her DynaMed obligations for a few minutes as she tells us her feelings about whether Roethlisberger's head injuries could have caused his behavioral issues:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There is not an easy answer to this complex situation. The circumstances of Ben Roethlisberger's 2006 motorcycle accident indicate that he was riding without a helmet and that he suffered enough of an impact to cause multiple facial fractures and loss of teeth (riding without a helmet on that day would indicate bad judgment even before the documented head trauma). There is also documentation of other sports-related concussions.

The article by David Epstein does address the issues well. At first blush, it is difficult to differentiate what may be adolescent-type behavior in a young man with fame and fortune and irresponsible behavior, from that of someone with frontal lobe damage. The acceleration/deceleration head injuries that Ben has experienced can cause brain damage on a cellular level which can result in frontal lobe damage manifested by poor judgment (loss of executive function) and the loss of ability to filter speech and behavior in order to behave in a socially appropriate fashion (disinhibition). Damage to the temporal lobes (which can also occur from acceleration/deceleration head trauma) can also result in certain deviant sexual behaviors, but this would be highly unusual. I agree with the comments of the neurologists and neuropsychologists that determination of his behavior patterns earlier in life as well as extensive neuropsychological testing will be able to determine whether this is the behavior of an egotistical man or inappropriate behavior of a brain-damaged individual.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you to Cynthia for once again providing us with some expert opinion here at NYaT!

My NFL Predictions

No money-backed guarantee, but here's how I see the 2009 season shaping out:

10 truths

1. Drew Brees is a compiler. He'll have great stats. The team will still be pretty bad when it counts most
   
2. Kurt Warner and Kerry Collins are still old, ex-Giants QBs. But they will lead their teams to the playoffs.
3. San Diego will win the AFC West, not because they're great, but because they get to play Kansas City and Oakland twice
   
4. Speaking of old guys, it doesn't matter what Brett Favre does; Adrian Peterson was just fine being AP without a QB and will be fine regardless of Favre
   
5. T.O. will be upset being in Buffalo before the bye week
6. Tampa Bay is a mess right now and will still be a mess when the season comes to a close
7. Don't believe what people may say: Denver will miss Jay Cutler
8. Someone will write an article saying that the NFC is better than the AFC. The playoff time will come and we'll realize that's not true
9. Some team will start 3-0, get a lot of press for being much-improved, and then go something like 4-9 to end the season. Trust me, it will happen
10. An injury will happen this week(end) to ensure that someone's fantasy football hopes are done by Monday.

One lie: No one from the NFL will get arrested this season

Predictions (*for Wild Cards, x for teams just missing out on playoffs):

NFC East:

1. Giants
2. Eagles*
3. Redskins x
   
4. Cowboys x
   

NFC North:

1. Packers
2. Vikings*
3. Bears x
   
4. Lions

NFC South:

1. Falcons
2. Panthers x
   
3. Saints
4. Bucs

NFC West:

1. Cardinals
2. Seahawks
3. Rams
4. 49ers

NFC Championship: Giants over Eagles

AFC East:

1. Patriots
2. Dolphins x
   
3. Jets
4. Bills

AFC North:

1. Steelers
2. Ravens *
3. Bengals
4. Browns

AFC South:

1. Titans
2. Colts *
3. Texans
4. Jaguars

AFC West:

1. Chargers
2. Broncos x
   
3. Raiders
4. Chiefs

AFC Championship: Steelers over Patriots

Super Bowl: Steelers over Giants
MVP: Adrian Peterson

Of course, we'll probably get a Jets/Bucs Super Bowl and throw all my predictions out of the water. But, in the words of Chris Berman: That's why they play the game!

Agree? Disagree? Thoughts?

Barack Obama: Fixing the Economy, Ending the War, Inquiring About the Cutter

Barack Obama threw out the first pitch tonight. Just wanted to let you know that. The oddsmakers said that he wouldn't make a fool of himself, and Obama sort of delivered with a slow, wobbly pitch that reached Pujols without a bounce. He did so wearing his hometeam White Sox jacket, explaining that he had to be true to his allegiences and because the First Lady thinks he looks cute in the jacket.

He made his way through all the players making small talk. He joked with Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols about not winning the Home Run Derby on their own turf.

And he asked Mariano Rivera about the cutter. Yup, about the cutter. Mo was interviewed by Ken Rosenthal who handed him his All Star Game MVP trophy about meeting President Obama and Rivera said that it was really cool because the Commander-in-Chief asked him about his cutter.

This is good news for Rivera. Obama threw the first pitch in the 2005 ALCS and the White Sox went on to win 8 straight games and the World Series. Then-Senator Obama played basketball with UNC and predicted they'd win the NCAA tournament and they did. He campaigned with the Rooneys in Pittsburgh and predicted they'd win the Super Bowl and they did so.

And tonight he asked about Mo's cutter and he recorded a save in the All Star Game. Hopefully that means he'll be closing the World Series out as well. He's now got the Obama blessing.

YES!

Well my square came up in the end Pittsburgh 27 - Arizona 23

$300

It wasn't a great game, but a great ending. Back and forth and some great catches but the Steelers prevailed in the end. Amazing.

Commercials were OK. QB play was very good. WRs did a great job. The Boss did a nice job. Defense was lacking, especially at the end of the game. Pittsburgh almost blew a double digit lead, but prevailed and made me a few bones.

Overall, fun times.

A Rare QB Matchup

So the questions was posed to me by Wolinsky: when was the last time that two quarterbacks faced each other in the Super Bowl each already with Super Bowl rings?

So up until Super Bowl XLIII begins in two weeks with Kurt Warner against Big Ben, the last time (and only time) that I could find a Super Bowl that the two QBs already had rings was Super Bowl XIII in 1979. In that game, Roger Staubach and Terry Bradshaw battled it out in Florida. 30 years later (also in Florida), we finally have that matchup again. I think this speaks volumes to the parity in football...even before free agency began.

Amazing

Steelers to the Super Bowl

Ok...so I got one right...

3 turnovers in the last 3:13 for the Ravens was not a good ending...but it happens at times when you have a rookie QB

Steelers vs. Cardinals in the Super Bowl...my early guess on the line is Steelers favored by 6 1/2...but who knows after how the Cards have been playing.

I saw Mike Tomlin at a Pittsburgh Pirates game this season (he was sitting 4 rows in front of me) and one fan yelled: "Hey Tomlin, is our offense going to better this year?"

Well...the defensive contributions sure helped, but the offense led by Big Ben helped to secure a big, big win

More later...

Gladly Wrong About the Cardinals

Congrats to the Arizona Cardinals who made the Super Bowl by the skin of their teeth (there's that phrase again). After jimmying the television at the treadmill next to me at the gym so that I could watch the game without listening to the broadcast (got it to the correct channel, pulled out the plug to disable the auto shutoff from the remote...it's very Jack Bauer-esque--at least in my mind).

I say gladly wrong, because with my luck, I felt like picking against the Cards was actually a good omen for them to win the game. The Cards continue to prove all doubters (including me) wrong...amazing...

The biggest play of the 1st half was the fleaflicker from Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald. I admit I turned it off after the Cards kicked the field goal heading into halftime. I thought it was over and didn't want to see an Eagles comeback if it wasn't. I didn't think we would see the Eagles take the lead...and then the Cardinals drive to take it back.

Kurt Warner showed that he's back to his MVP form of almost a decade ago and Larry Fitzgerald made a case to be considered the best wide receiver in the game.

Just saw Joe "Cool" Flacco throw the INT to Troy Polamalu who cut back all the way across the field to probably put the seal on the game...though after the way the Cardinal game went, anything is possible.

Maybe my prediction of Joe Cool's road superiortiy coming to an end will finally come through...bad throw there in that situation, but nice job by the Steelers creating a lot of pressure on him.

More later...

Football Predictions: Championship Games

Ok...so here it goes: I'm not going to watch the NFC Championship game. I can't. Maybe I'll take a peek. But since the football season began, I've been sitting in my couch every Monday night and all-day Sunday (and recently Saturdays). I need a break. I can't watch this game. I hate the Eagles with a passion (I only hate the Cowboys more in football)...and the problem is that the Eagles are following the EXACT formula the Giants followed last season: especially the fact that I thought they would lose in each and every game. So I'm going to sit that game out...but it doesn't mean I can't pick it. (actually, if you go based on the ridiculous rules that ESPN or NBC has on people broadcasting games can't pick them online...well...I just don't understand that rule or how it applies, so let's forget that).

3 p.m. ET, FOX

Philadelphia (9-6-1, 2-0) at Arizona (9-7, 2-0)

Yeah...I screwed this one up. I never saw those two games last week coming. I though there was no way this game wasn't going to be Giants/Panthers and now neither of those teams are here (Michael Lombardi lists 5 things that still bother him from last weekend...worth a read). I listed 5 reasons why the Eagles could win and so did Erik. So let's go through those now and figure out what happened and how that applies to this game...

1) The Eagles are the only team left in the playoff who have beaten the Giants this season. It ended up being a huge factor. The Eagles went into a loud and windy Giants Stadium and beat them. You think they'll be intimidated by the University of Phoenix Stadium? Nope. They already beat the Cardinals once this season...and they really beat them. (Need to link to this article again here...wow.)

2) The Eagles are hot and the Giants have been sitting. This proved to be huge in the Eagles last game (the Giants were really flat and the Eagles controlled the energy). This could prove to be a factor because of the closeness of the games the Eagles have played while the Cardinals coasted through the last round.

3) Brian Westbrook. I'm still amazed at how ineffective Westbrook has been in the playoffs and how the Eagles have managed to win two games. I think he needs to be a little more effective in this game to win, though if McNabb can throw for 4 TDs again, it won't really matter.

4) Special Teams. Yeah...well. The Giants couldn't score a TD on that first kickoff because Bradshaw wouldn't run down Akers. They had two huge penalties on punts. And they missed two field goals. I think I was dead on. DeSean Jackson is a big weapon to use again Arizona in this game.

5) Because the Eagles have that "underdog that no one believed in" feeling among them. This one is probably in both teams in this game. This is my one worry for the Eagles...I think they're too confident. McNabb thinks he's amazing, the team is favored on the road in the playoffs, and the city of Philly is rolling right along. This is usually when they get kicked right in the nuts. We'll see what happens this time.

and from Erik...

1) Philly DBs are better than the Giants WRs. Yeah...he was dead on here. This game, however, it may be switched. The Eagles need (NEED) to do a good job of covering Larry Fitzgerald and getting pressure on Kurt Warner. Warner will fumble and throw INTs if you can get some contact with him. The key is getting there. Jim Johnson will probably throw some DBs on blitz packages. They need to make sure when they do, Fitzgerald is adequately covered.

2) The Eagles will blitz and get in Manning's face. Yup...and this is the KEY for the Eagles: get in Warner's face.

3) Tuck has not been playing to his potential. Erik hit this right on the head. Tuck has been injured for a while but has been able to play through it...mostly because of inferior offensive lines. The Eagles did not allow a sack to the Giants all season and the 3rd and 20 the Giants let up to the Eagles was because of a lack of pressure on the QB. The Cardinals need to make sure to get to McNabb so he doesn't feel comfortable in the pocket. The Ravens were able to kill McNabb this season because they were able to get to him. The Cards need to make it there too...

4) Philly Special Team: got this one too...

5) David Akers: He kicked it straight through and John Carney had trouble. Enough said.

So I'm going to pick the Eagles. Big surprise. The Giants last year beat a tough team in the first round, their division rivals and the #1 seed in the second round, and then went on the road again in a noisy stadium against a veteran QB in the 3rd round...sound familiar? I'm hoping the Eagles don't do it. I really am. But their defense has been great and they've been getting enough on offense to win. Arizona certainly has a chance in this game, but they need to do it on the air and get to McNabb on defense. And I figure I'm probably jinxing Philly by picking them... Final Score: Eagles 36 - Cardinals 28.

6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Baltimore (11-5, 2-0) at Pittsburgh (12-4, 1-0)

If you think the Eagles are like the Giants--look at the Ravens. They played a close first round game, beat a division rival and 1st seed in the second round, now they're going on the road to a frigid, hostile environment to play a #2 seed...sound even more familiar? But I'm going to pick them to lose. Here's why:

The Ravens should never have won last week. The Titans handed them that game. On a silver platter. I don't believe the fact that Joe Flacco beat a very similar team in a similar spot last week. He had one good pass (a bomb to Mason) and otherwise was kept much in check. And Pittsburgh has Troy Polamalu who is a difference-maker. There are some injury concerns on Pittsburgh (Polamalu, "Big Ben", and a few others) but they all seem like they're going to play. It's supposed to snow in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Steelers beat the Ravens twice this season...but both times by 3 points. It'll be interesting to see if they can distance themselves enough to cover.

But I think that a rookie QB, on the road, in the snow, on a team that's been relying on the passing game is not a winning combination. I've been wrong before. But Pittsburgh was the one team that I got right last week and since the Giants played them in Week 8 on the regular season, I felt that they should be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. Willie Parker is running as well as he has all season and if that continues in this game, Steelers should win easily. Final Score: Steelers 20 - Ravens 13.

*(No money-backed guarantee offered on these picks)

Divisional Round Previews

Figured it was time...here we go...my "fearless" predictions for the Divisional Round (with an extended Giants preview in a future post). I went back and forth on each of these picks. A lot. But here we go...

Sat., Jan. 10, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Baltimore (11-5, 1-0) at Tennessee (13-3)


The first game of the week has the closest point spread of the week. Amazingly all four of these divisional matchups already occurred in the regular season. And all four had somewhat fluky outcomes (with wins of 1, 2, 4, and 5 points). Throw out the records, these two teams are about as even as they come (as Bill Simmons pointed out in today's column) In their first matchup, Kerry Collins marched the Titans down the field on an 80-yard touchdown drive to win. This one was aided by a personal foul penalty...which really was just incidental contact. That was part of 169 yards of penalties racked up in this game. The difference was in the QBs. Collins was able to get past his Ravens nightmares from the 2000 Superbowl (with absolutely no proof to back up his claim, my dad still swears that Collins bet against the Giants that game...and, really, looking back at the tape, it doesn't seem so far-fetched). With the Ravens needing a score to tie it up, Joe Flacco threw an INT to end the game. There's your difference. And this game is being played in Tennessee. The notion that home-field advantage means nothing seems to be thrown out in the Divisional Round, according to Gregg Easterbrook: "Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, home teams in the divisional round are 55-17, a .764 winning percentage." Now weigh that against Bill Simmons writing that home-field advantage has left the building. But this is the Divisional Round so I'll let Easterbrook have this one. And it seems that rain is in the forecast tomorrow, but should subside by the afternoon, leaving the field and the balls a little slick. My guess is that you see a really good defensive battle that dictates the pace of the game. Turnovers galore. And the running games will account for many more yards in this game than in the previous matchup. Chris Johnson is a better running back than anything that Tennessee will throw out there against them, and Tennessee is getting healthy right when they need to be. Either team can win this game. I think you have to go with veterans, home field advantage, and against the very, very trendy pick. A veteran coach, a veteran QB, and a slight edge in RB will allow the Titans to win this game. Final score: Titans 17 - Ravens 12.

Sat., Jan. 10, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Arizona (9-7, 1-0) at Carolina (12-4)


The problem for me in this game is not to predict who will win (I think Carolina has this one), but to see if Carolina can beat the 10 point spread their up against. These teams met earlier in the season and it was a matchup of QBs that were former teammates...in NFL Europe. But both Delhomme and Warner had great games and put their team in position to win. The Panthers were down in the game, but a 65-yard pass to Steve Smith helped the Panthers hold off the Cardinals. Carolina was 8-0 at home. Arizona was both terrible on the road and, according to the critics, may not have won a game on the East Coast since the Lincoln administration. Showers are also expected for this game. I think this benefits Carolina. Arizona relies on their passing game way too much. Even when Arizona had success running the ball, as they did in the beginning of the Wild Card game, they inexplicably decided to go away from it. Dumb coaching won't get you too far in the playoffs either. Arizona had one player who rushed for more than 17 yards in the first matchup: Anquan Boldin, a wide receiver. Arizona's problem is playing from behind...especially in bad weather. When they're at home, they seem to be a different team than on the road, where the elements can get to them (see Foxboro, Mass. and the snow). Pat Yasinskas breaks down the showdown of the WRs here very nicely. The key to this game will be establishing the defense to stop these WRs and the two-headed running attack of the Panthers. In their first playoff game, the Cards were able to impressively stop Michael Turner and "Matty Ice". Turner seemed to be running in slow motion. Every run. Watch it again. In super-slow-mo, I doubt you can even see him moving. Carolina is well coached, confident, need Delhomme to minimize his mistakes and play within his game. And one factor, reported by Mike Sando, sent me over the top: "Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa get the call for Fox when the Cardinals face the Panthers in an NFC divisional playoff game Saturday at Bank of America Stadium...The Cardinals are 0-3 when Albert, Johnston and Siragusa work their games this season." There it is. The Cardinals are distracted by the fact that "Moose" and "Goose" hate each other's guts. Hate each other. If you've watched their broadcasts this season, they can't stand each other. They put Goose down on the field so that they don't kill each other. I'm convinced of that. I think this is the Panthers game...but will it be more than 10 points? I think it will be exactly 10. Final score: Panthers 30 - Cardinals 20.

Sun., Jan. 11, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Philadelphia (9-6-1, 1-0) at N.Y. Giants (12-4)

I'll get to this one in the next post. But I need to get this out here: what the hell is wrong with Andy Reid. I've never thought that highly of him. But then he showed up on Sunday like he'd been drinking all week, slept on a sidewalk, got woken up by a policeman, worshipped the porcelain, ate a box of donuts, splashed some water in his face, put on a sweatsuit and showed up on the sidelines. I was growing a playoff beard until I realized the Philly craze around playoff beards. I mean look at this. I'm done. I'm shaving before this game. Like right when I get home. I can't believe I tried to grow this beard. I figured it'd be like the NHL playoffs. No more. There's not a change I'm going to be caught looking like Reid did. No I understand his constant challenging: Bloody Mary breaks. Makes perfect sense. He can't drink Bloody Mary's while the refs are looking so while they're under the hood, he's getting one of his assistance to grab one for him. How many times do you think they checked his credentials before they let him on the field? Do you think his hangover was bothered by the volume of the Metrodome? And this guy is supposedly a master coach? Well one of his "disciples", Brad Childress, made some of the dumbest coaching moves and handed his former "mentor" the last game. An offensive holding call? Childress declined it! 4th and inches and the worst return coverage in football against an explosive return man? Punt it! Have the NFL leading rusher and your best player and need to come from behind? Put him on the sideline! How/why did he give the Eagles this game? The Giants should be playing Arizona in this game. The Giants played their butts off down the stretch, and especially in that EPIC game against Carolina to get home-field advantage and the #1 seed. For what? So they could play the Eagles in round 2? Noooo. They wanted to play a team like the Cardinals or the Falcons or the Bucs or the Bears...NOT the Eagles. As a Giants fan, this is punishment for Plaxico Burress. I'm telling you, he had something to do with it. I'm as sure of that as my dad was that Collins threw away the Superbowl. Or maybe not. The truth really is that I can't see the Giants losing this game. Maybe that's just denial. Maybe I just don't want Wolinsky to cry. Final Score: Giants 24 - Eagles 17.

Sun., Jan. 11, 4:45 p.m. ET, CBS
San Diego (8-8, 1-0) at Pittsburgh (12-4)


There were 12,837 NFL games played before one ended up in a 11-10 score as the earlier matchup between these two teams did (the truth is that the refs botched a call and it should have been 18-10, but the refs wanted to be involved in history as well). That game left the Chargers 4-6 overall and 0-13 in Pittsburgh in their history. Read that again: 0-13. Not one win. The last one was played on a snowy Sunday and this one looked to be snowy until recent forecasts seem to call for a break in the precipitation for Sunday. If it snows, Pittsburgh wins. If it doesn't the Chargers have a chance. It's as simple as that. Teams do not do well coming from warm weather climates into the cold and snow. San Diego started the season 4-8. Read that again: 4-8. And what team did they turn their season around by rallying back from a 21-3 deficit? The same team where their margin of victory in both matchups was exactly 1? The Kansas City Chiefs. Read that again: +2 points on the season against the Kansas City Chiefs. And this is the team everyone is predicting to win? The team that somehow fell behind 21-3 against the Chiefs? The Steelers lost 4 games all season. They lost to the Eagles (made the playoffs), Giants (made the playoffs), Colts (made the playoffs), and Titans (made the playoffs). The Steelers biggest concerns are the health of Ben Roethlisberger and establishing a running game. The latter is certainly important, as the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote, Pittsburgh needs to get back to their reputation as a power running team. If Willie Parker can run the ball (he ran for 115 in their first matchup) and the Steelers defense can limit Sproles with LDT out, this should be a Steeler win. BTW, Sproles was not as good as his numbers showed. Don't get me wrong, he was good, but he wasn't GREAT. He didn't dominate. Many of those yards came on special teams. And Indy's run defense was always their most suspect part of their game, anyway (in Indy's 17 games this season, they only had the leading rusher in the game twice...and once was in the last game with all the players resting for Tennessee). The Colts let Fred Taylor gain 121 yards against them this season. Fred Taylor? Pittsburgh had the best defense in the league this past season. The problem is that the past 3 years, the Chargers have killed me either way I've bet on them. I may have won 20% of the time on their games. I hate betting on this 6 1/2 point line. Remember when Allen died on Entourage and the guys said it was horrible, but really all the viewers and Drama knew it wasn't? That'll be what happens when the Chargers are finally eliminated. Let's just hope that what occurs is not another Smoke Jumpers...anyways, I was going to take the points in this one but will listen to Bill Simmons that I should not pick an underdog in the playoffs unless I think they can win. I want to take an underdog, I really do, but I do like all the favorites. Add up the bold passages in this section. It adds up to a Steeler win. Final Score: Steelers 21 - Chargers 14.