Hot Stove Coal: Reviewing Yankees Worst Case Scenarios from 2010

I figured today was a good day to revisit a depressing topic. Last winter we launched into a series looking at the Yankees worst-case scenarios for the 2010 season. I didn't expect it to be as popular as it was but it was copied on Yankees blogs, national baseball blogs and even Red Sox blogs. Our three-part series went into what it would look like if everything went wrong. Well, despite winning the Wild Card and making the American League Championship Series, some of these worst-case scenarios actually came to fruition. Let's look at each of them again and see how close we go to predicting the worst-case scenario, starting with Part 1, "The Starting Lineup":

Jeter smiles but the Cold War was predicted back in February (CBC)

Jorge Posada 
What I said worst-case would look like: "Basically 2008 redux. He played in only 51 games, garnering a measly 195 PAs. The Yankees don't need him to get 545 (a number he reached from 2000-2007) but they need him to hit the mid 400s...Jorgie can't get hurt"

What actually happened: Posada played in 120 games and got 451 PAs which was more than he had logged since 2007. The problem was that he hit like 2008 when he played, putting up a .248/.357/.454 line. He also had injury issues like 2008 with a fractured foot in mid-May and a Baker Cyst behind his knee which kept him from crouching. Worse than his offense was his defense which was so bad the Yankees have informed him he is a designated hitter in 2011. 

Mark Teixeira 
What I said worst-case would look like: "The beginning of [2009]. He can't hit and he's killing the team out there..on May 2nd of [2009], Tex was hitting .182/.354/.338 through 99 PAs"

What actually happened: Well, through 99 PAs in 2010 Tex hit .136/.300/.259 and it took him longer to get out of his slump. He still finished with very good numbers but he didn't come close to hitting his 2009 totals. And an injury during the ALCS ended his playoffs and seemed to deflate the entire Yankees' offense. Teixeira still played great defense and got on base during his slump but it took a while for him to come around while he killed the Yankees from the #3 slot.

Robinson Cano

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Hot Stove Coal: Should the Yankees Trade An Outfielder? (Nick Swisher Edition)

I know, I know: the report today from Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News is that the Yankees are out of the Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth sweepstakes. But I don't believe that for a second. The Yankees were also out on Mark Teixeira and look what happened there. Plus, I've already gone through the rest of the outfield having covered Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson. So let's finish up the series and see if the Yankees should keep or trade their righfielder (and about-to-be-married-man), Nick Swisher.

Swish was a Yank for 2 postseasons; will he be around for a 3rd? (LoHud)

When the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher after the 2008 season, it was seen as a reclamation project. After putting up 3+ win seasons for the Athletics in 2007 and 2008, Swisher had struggled playing under Ozzie Guillen and looked like he needed a change of scenery. The Yankees acquired Swisher for three bags of baseballs players: Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. He was owed just over $22 M for the next three years or $31.3 M for the next four depending on the option the club controlled. Swisher was originally acquired to be the Yankees everyday first baseman until the Yankees surprised many and signed the aforementioned Teixeira to a long-term deal. Suddenly, with first filled by Tex and the OF/DH spots all covered, Swisher was relegated to a bench role. That quickly changed in April of 2009 as Swisher's hot start combined with a Xavier Nady injury got Swish into the lineup everyday in rightfield. And since that time he's been one of the Yankees most important players.

After putting up 3.3 WAR last season in helping the Yankees win the World Series, Nick Swisher had the best season of his career, putting up a WAR of 4.1. Although Swisher became more free swinging and walked less in 2010 (only 9.1% of the time, a far cry from 16% last season), he improved his average (career high .288) and slugging numbers and combined that with improved defense in right. He seemed to come into camp in much better shape and besides a late-season knee injury, seemed to be playing with much better comfort in the field. He was also moved around quite a bit in the lineup, filling in the second slot at times and moving further down in the order at others (he batted in every slot except lead-off).

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The Yankee Clipper: The Outfield

As the All-Star break comes to a close, it feels like a good time to review the season so far. We'll try to roll a different one of these out for the next week reviewing the Yankees different positional groups to see how they've performed so far this season. We'll also be reviewing this to see where weaknesses are before the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. Let's start out with the outfield:

1. Brett Gardner. One of my favorite players coming into this season has rewarded the Yankees' faith in making him an everyday player. He's hitting a robust .309/.396/.415 and at his current pace would finish the season with 10 HR and almost 50 SB. He's 10th in the AL in runs (56), 5th in OBP (.396), and 4th in SB (25). Baseball-Reference has his defense in left rated as tops in the American League. In my opinion, the best thing about his game is the amount of pitches he sees. He averages 4.58 P/PA which would be the highest average since Rickey Henderson had 4.55 in 1997 (and if you want to read up on the correlation of P/PA and production, I found this Hardball Times piece from 2005). Better yet, FanGraphs says that only 5 players in the Majors swing at less balls outside the strike zone than Gardner--then again, he's also swung at the least amount of pitches inside the strike zone in the Majors and overall meaning he only swings 31.3% of the time (but he makes contact at balls inside the strike zone a league-leading 98.1% of the time when he does swing). FanGraphs tracks Gardner's Wins Above Replacement number at 2.3 which already surpasses his 2009 value and puts him in the top 15 among American League outfielders and Baseball-Reference has Gardner's WAR at 3.4 with would be tied for 6th among all AL positional players (with Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis). Whether it's "Gardner Planted One" (for his Inside-the-Park home run), "Gardy Goes Yardy" (his regular home run call), or "Brett The Jet" (his stolen base call), Gardner has not only turned into an important Yankee regular, but he may be a reason the Yankees second-guess giving big money to Carl Crawford in the off-season. Best Month: June .383/.472/.533.
2. Nick Swisher. I will repeat: the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher for Wilson Betemit. Wow. Swisher came into camp this year in even better shape than last year and it has showed. The Yankees starting rightfielder is having his best Major League season with career highs at every slash (.298/.377/.524) as well as his Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .391 (only Robinson Cano has a better mark. He's projected to have 28 HR, 93 RBI and 72 XBH. And although UZR rates him as a negative defender, he's shown definite improvement in right with both his arm and his glove. His 2.7 WAR in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference means that he's on pace to greatly surpass last year's output. And as shown by his recent All-Star Final Ballot selection, he's having a lot of fun doing it, bringing a loose atmosphere to the clubhouse that the Yankees needed after guys like Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi left. Swisher has moved around in the lineup a lot, hitting 2nd some games and anywhere from 4th to 8th in others--but wherever he's hit in the lineup, he's produced. Although he hasn't walked as much in 2010 (mostly due to who he's had hitting behind him), Swisher has still taken over 18% of his at bats to a full count and done damage when he's gotten there (.554 OBP). Swish has been extra Swishalicous in 2010 and the Yankees can control him for cheap through 2012 (according to Cot's Contracts, signed for bargains of  $6.75 M this year, $9 M in 2011 and a $10.25 M club option in 2012 with a $1 M buyout). Best Month: May .374/.441/.670 with 7 HR. Picture from the New York Daily News

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My All-Star Team: American League Hitters

The Major League Baseball All-Star Game in baseball is probably not a game that should count and sometimes the fans seem to get the wrong players elected--but then again, that doesn't make it different than any other form of democracy. And sometimes, people certainly get picked for the wrong reasons as The Common Man showed  last week. In the end, the Mid-Summer Classic is all about being an exhibition of baseball's best players. So I'm going to take only the best players, rule-about-taking-one-player-per-team be damned! Here's my list of the best candidates for the All-Star Game starting with the AL guys who will be swinging the bat (all stats min 100 PAs):

Catcher: Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, and Joe Mauer. Mauer is the leading vote getter for all of Major League Baseball so he's in without a doubt. But if you were picking a player on pure stats, this wouldn't be the year to take Mauer at first glance (his numbers perfectly mirror his 2007 output). But when you drill down, Mauer has still had a pretty great season and is worth of an All-Star nod. Although not as adept defensively, Posada and Martinez may beat Mauer with the bat this year. Although he's been battling injuries (and therefore spent quite a bit of time at DH as well as only racked up 171 PAs), Posada leads all the catchers in OPS (slash lines of .287/.398/.538) and wOBA (.406 to Martinez's .363 and Mauer's .356). Martinez leads all catchers with 29 XBH so far this season. Amazingly (considering his lack of speed), one stat that favors Jorge this season is GIDP: Mauer has 14, Martinez 9 and Posada 1. "Counting" stats: Mauer .304 avg, 3 HR, 21 RBI; Martinez .291 avg, 9 HR, 37 RBI; Posada .287 avg, 9 HR, 25 RBI. Honorable Mentions: John Buck (.271/.309/.532, .356 wOBA, 12 HR, 38 RBI) and Mike Napoli (.251/.329/.478, .354 wOBA, 11 HR, 27 RBI). Picture from The Star-Ledger.

Firstbase: Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera and Kevin Youkilis. All three players are having monster years and all three are early candidates for MVP. Morneau's numbers are off the charts (almost Mauer like) with a ridiculous slash line of .340/.448/.622 and a wOBA of .452 to go along with 15 HR and 47 RBI. That wOBA is the highest (among all players who have qualified for the batting title) in the Majors. Second is Youk (.440) and third is Cabrera (.437). Mourneau's OPS of 1.070 leads all 1Bs trailed by Cabrera (1.041) and Youkilis (1.026). The WAR numbers tell the difference thus far though. Due to extremely positive fielding numbers, Morneau takes the lead with 4.3, Youkilis is seen about even and Cabrera is marked down for his defense. Cabrera leads in the counting stats while Youkilis has been hitting the tar out of the ball recently for the surging Red Sox. Morneau has the lead and should start but the other two should be named replacements on the team. Counting stats: Morneau .340 avg, 15 HR, 47 RBI; Cabrera .328 avg, 19 HR, 60 RBI; Youkilis .312 avg, 14 HR, 47 RBI. Honorable Mentions: Paul Konerko (.296/.396/.574, 17 HR, 51 RBI, .413 wOBA) and Billy Butler (.330/.383/.491, 7 HR, 37 RBI, .381 wOBA). Picture from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution

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Yankees Finding Ways To Utilize Open DH Spot

I don't think the Yankees planned to have Nick Johnson miss time. I don't think they got him thinking "hey, he'll probably get injured and open up the DH slot." But while Nick Johnson's injury isn't a good thing for the Yankees, the vacancy in the DH spot has been a positive point at times for the Yankees. With an older team and injuries to key players, the Yankees have needed to use the DH spot to ease players back in the lineup (as they did last night with Alex Rodriguez). Let's take a look at how the DH spot has gone for the Yankees this season.

The graph below from Baseball-Reference shows all the people that have spent time at DH this season for the Yanks:

	Age	G
Nick Johnson	31	19
Jorge Posada	38	14
Juan Miranda	27	7
Marcus Thames	33	7
Mark Teixeira	30	5
Alex Rodriguez	34	4
Derek Jeter	36	3
Nick Swisher	29	2
Robinson Cano	27	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/17/2010.

Jorge Posada has played the most games besides Johnson on this list and for good reason. The 38-year-old would have probably spent a good deal of time at DH anyways due the fact that he can't squat for 162 games, but his foot injury kept him from being the Yankees catcher for quite longer than expected. Posada has historically been a better hitter when he catches and 2010 is no different. A caveat though, Posada's time at DH was spent while he was still pretty injured so the results may have also been hindered by the fact he was not always healthy while DH'ing. His .229/.362/.438 splits in 58 PAs out of the DH slot is not bad as it contains 3 HR in his 11 hits. Joe from FanGraphs wrote about catchers who are good enough to DH back on June 1st, and Posada has given the Yankees a great option of using the better defensive player (Francisco Cervelli) at catcher and preserve Jorge's body while DH'ing. Even now that he's returned behind the plate, I expect that quite a few of Jorge's ABs will come with the other half of the day off.

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The Yankee Clipper: We're Going Streaking

The Yankees have hit their soft part of their schedule and after taking 3 of 4 against the Indians, the Yankees just finished off a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles. After the bats had gone silent for a few weeks, health has come back to the Yankees and so has their Bronx Bomber persona. Those bats mixed with great pitching has allowed the Yankees to take advantage and beat up on bad teams. Let's take a look at how we got here:

1. Javy Vazquez, Curtis Granderson, and a break in Game 1. ESPN's TMI blog summarized why Javier Vazquez won and it was pretty simple: he threw first pitch strikes (73% of the time), he kept the ball down (set season-highs with 64 pitches down, 9 ground ball outs, and 52.9% of balls in play resulted in ground-balls), and he got swings and misses (27.5%, his second-highest mark this year). I know that this was "only the Orioles", but pitching is really that simple: keep the ball down, throw first pitch strikes and get swings and misses. As Mark Feinsand of The Daily News points out, the one run that Vazquez gave up was on a pitch up to Corey Patterson. The overall numbers are ugly, but since they skipped his start in early May, Vazquez has pitched in 5 games has a 2.77 ERA and has a .202/.270/.348 line against. Granderson is also out to prove people wrong by hitting lefties and he continued that movement in Game 1 by hitting a home run. As LoHud's Chad Jennings pointed out, Joba Chamberlain also bounced back nicely. And a costly error by Miguel Tejada gave the Yankees the extra runs needed to seal a 3-1 win.
2. Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Granderson in Game 2. I was at this game and wrote about it from there. ESPN's Buster Olney gives us more details about why Hughes won: "He held Orioles hitters to just 1-for-15 after the count got to two strikes, including 0-for-9 against his fastball. Hughes registered five of his seven strikeouts with the fastball on the night. Hughes challenged Orioles hitters with his fastball up in the zone with success. Hughes got four of his five strikeouts on the fastball on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone. Hughes went to three balls on just one hitter and to a 2-0 count on only two hitters."
3. Today was about CC Sabathia returning to form and A-Rod and Brett Gardner getting in on the power game. CC Sabathia wasn't great today, but what he did well was keep runners off base. The Yankees have been getting great pitching from AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte but this team really took off last season when the hefty lefty was at his best. As Mike from Yankeeist writes, the Yankees made it a lot more interesting than it needed to be, especially Mariano Rivera in the 9th inning but Jay from Fack Youk points out that despite the fact that the Orioles brought the tying run to the plate it never felt like the sweep was going to get away from the Yankees. The Yankees have to be happy to see Gardner and A-Rod starting to swing the bats well again.

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The Yankee Clipper: A Series Win Before Heading Back to the Bronx

The Yankees lost for the first time in Minnesota since August of 2008 last night but they still leave Minnesota with a series win and head home to face what should be the easy part of their schedule (here's a look at their pitching probables from Zell's Pinstripe Blog). Since it's been a while since we've done a Yankee Clipper, let's look at how we got here, shall we?

1. A split with Boston, a 2-game loss to Tampa, and then a series loss to the Mets. Yeah, it's been a while since we've done one of these. Tampa seems to be on another level than the rest of the majors, this past week's series against Boston notwithstanding. The split with Boston was disappointing since they had every chance to win that second game including a 5-1 lead and a rally towards the end. The Mets series was even more disappointing as the bats went dead (a theme that has carried through since). Jason Bay continues to be a Yankee killer. Jason @ IIATMS looks into whether the Yankees are waiting for the big hit and while many Yankee fans were busy panicking, Steve at River Ave Blues put everything into perspective. Also to be put in perspective, the Yankees have been playing without Curtis Granderson who returns tonight and Matt from TYU looks at what Granderson's return means to the Yankees. I think it means more protection in a lineup that has recently been pretty bad throughout, especially the middle of the line-up. Getting Granderson back could allow the Yankees to move Swisher into the #2 hole, Granderson into the #6 hole and Gardner further back in the lineup where he thrived earlier in the season.
2. The Yankees still have Minnesota's number. Two one-run games (one suspended) went to the Yankees in the first two. Home runs by Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher in a park that has shown to be very hard to homer in were the difference. Jeter's bad and glove had been questioned recently so it was good for him to show up. So calls about his defense and moving him out of the lead-off spot will have to wait for now.
3. But other teams still have Javier Vazquez's number. Despite looking really good in his last two starts, Vazquez didn't look quite as good last night going for the sweep. Maybe it was that bunt attempt that he took off of his finger...or maybe he really hasn't turned a corner just yet (or maybe he's historically struggled against some of the Twins). Rob from Bronx Baseball Daily writes that just when Javy looked like he had turned the corner, last night happened, and Joe from River Ave Blues writes that there was some good, but mostly bad last night.

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The Yankee Clipper: Despite Great Pitching, a Doubleheader Split

Two days after losing a tough game to the Tigers (and Jose Valverde's chicken dance) and one day after being rained out, the Yankees went back at it again yesterday with a day-night doubleheader. It's odd how it turns out, but most of the time, no matter how unbalanced the teams might be, it usually ends up that doubleheaders get split. Last night was no exception. The Tigers took the afternoon affair and the Yankees won the evening game. Let's take a look at how that happened:

1. Javier Vazquez's best start of the season. If he wasn't making over $11 million, you would probably feel bad for the guy. After being all out of whack this season, he pitched a really good game giving up only 2 runs over seven strong innings, striking out 7--and his team got shutout for the first time all season. The two runs were on groundballs that just snuck through the infield so hopefully this is a start that Vazquez can build on as we move forward. Mike at River Ave Blues noted that Vazquez worked at a quicker pace and with confidence--and that is usually half the battle with struggling pitchers--and got 16 swings and misses. Vazquez was a little wild early on but settled down to retired 14 of 15 at one point. In the words of Herm Edwards "we can build on this!"
2. Phil Hughes' continued dominance. Johnny Damon told Mark Feinsand of the Daily News that Hughes could be the ace on 15-20 teams in Major League Baseball. LoHud's Chad Jennings agrees. At this point, they may be right. You forget how young he is, too--he won't turn 24 until June 24th. The only Yankees in the past 30 years to win more games than Hughes by age 24 were Andy Pettitte, Dave Righetti, and Bob Wickman. Hughes leads the league in ERA (1.38), wins (5), H/9 (5.077), ERA+ (289), Win Probability Added (1.7), 2nd in WHIP (.923), 4th in HR/9 (.231), 4th in WAR (1.3) and 6th in K/9 (9.000). Hughes' FIP is 2.50 and his xFIP is 3.60 so you expect that ERA to creep up a bit (he's probably going to give up another home run at some point), but so far he's been fabulous. The regular season domination we saw last year with Hughes as a set-up man has translated into Hughes as a confident starter. His cutter has been a tremendous pitch for him.

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The Yankee Clipper: Same 'ole in Anaheim

No matter how much things change, they always seem to stay the same. The Yankees overcame their inability to beat the Angels in last year's American League Championship Series, but they still are unable to beat them in Anaheim (or is it Los Angeles?). Even last year, en route to winning the series, the Yankees dropped 2 out of 3 in California. The latest iteration was no different--a loss, followed by a win, followed by a tough loss. Let's review:

1. Javier Vazquez was not good. Listen, I'm a Javy Vazquez fan and I think he'll be fine, but this is not the start that helps me to prove that. Not even to myself anymore. How bad is it? Well consider this stat from ESPN's TMI blog: "Vazquez's ERA jumped to 9.00, matching the worst-ever April ERA by a Yankee who pitched at least 20 innings." For my friend Paul who is NOT a Javy fan, I will say this: BRUTAL! That's a horrible start. Jason @ IIATMS debates whether this is a result of a small sample size (and maybe bad luck) or time to panic. Chris at TYU defends Javy a little, saying, at the very least that he's probably not a "gutless bitch". Vazquez claims to be embarrassed by all this and Joe Girardi thinks it's mechanical. Let's hope so. At least that can be corrected.
2. What exactly happened before the Kendry Morales home run? I'm still confused. And, although some will sweep it under the rug, it was a big at-bat in a one-run game. It was runners on 1st and 2nd for Morales vs. Damaso Marte with David Robertson ready in the bullpen and Juan Rivera on deck. Girardi left in Marte. Francisco Cervelli rose from the catcher's stance like they were intentionally walking him and took ball one. Now this seemed like an odd move to me and the rest of the Twitter universe took the task of asking why the Yankee would walk someone when 3rd base was the one that was open. I guess Girardi was checking out his Twitter feed because he decided that they were going to now pitch to Morales. So Marte threw ball 2...and then ball 3. Right before the next pitch was going to be thrown, I saw Girardi signal something to Cervelli. I thought that signal was to let him know to just put Morales on base. Instead, the signal was to let Cervelli know that Morales will swing 3-0 and not to groove one over. Instead, Marte grooved one over and it was crushed out for a three run shot. A close one-run game became an easy four-run lead for the Angels and they never looked back. Girardi looked upset at the time and took all the blame for the Yankees. I know it was just one play, but for a team that prides themselves on professionalism and fundamentals, that was a big hiccup in a bad spot. The New York Times' Ben Shpigel talks about how out of character that was for Girardi.

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The Yankee Clipper: Game 2

I have to admit, most of my time was spent last night watching LOST and some of my sports watching was split between the Yankees/Red Sox and the Rangers. But that doesn't mean I can't give you a Yankee Clipper for Game 2:

1. I'm sure you've heard by now of Big Papi's big, expletive-laced tirade. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston has some more information. Matt at Fack Youk thinks he may have justifiably been upset since we are two games into the season and he's already getting questions about his production. Craig Calcaterra at HardballTalk agrees with Matt. I'm OK with Papi being upset about being questioned this early in the season, but the dude is playing in one of the biggest baseball media markets and reaped a lot of good will form the writers when his career was going well. He can't now turn to the same people and mouth off just because they have to fill a newspaper column. That's unfair.
2. Also unfair is claiming that Joba Chamberlain has been magically healed by the bullpen gods because he pitched well last night and pumped his fist (*cough* Wallace Matthews). We'll never know now if he could have done this as a starter in the rotation, but those same people weren't texting me on Sunday night and saying that Joba's "bullpen mentality" wasn't working that night. I'm rooting for him to do well in this role--I really am--but I'm not going to engage in selective celebrations of success. We can collectively fist pump if Phil Hughes pitches well in the 5th role and the Yankees get to the playoffs at the end of the year. I can't say I didn't love the fist pump (I did one at home), but let's all settle down a bit (picture to the right from the ESPN New York article)
3. Nick Johnson's walk. Sometimes the biggest hit of the game is not a hit at all. If you want to see a reason we got Nick Johnson, that was it. Like Giambi, because of his eye Johnson is one of those guys who is sometimes does more damage with a walk than with a hit. It's not the most fun baseball, but it's what puts runs on the board and marks in the win column. As Mike from River Ave Blues wrote, Nick Johnson's biggest swing came with the bat on his shoulder.
4. Nick Swisher's patience. Pitchers will hate both of the "Nicks" in the Yankees lineup of 2010. Swishalicous saw 30 pitches last night. The best AB was 8 pitches against Manny Delcarmen. He doubled at the end of the at-bat and even though he didn't score, the amount of pitches he saw effects the game and the rest of the series. Maybe Delcarmen is unavailable tonight because of the toll he took last night. That's a victory in and of itself.
5. Robinson Cano's power. When Cano is on with the bat, he has such a sweet swing. This is a guy who could win a batting title and maybe vie for an MVP award if he kept focused all season. His blast to rightfield last night continued to show that. Focus, Robby, focus.

Final Thoughts: Other aspects I didn't talk about? Jorge and AJ doing fine as battery mates (we can stop that chatter for now), Alfredo Aceves doing really well out of the bullpen (I think that will be a big factor), and Marco Scutaro's error (is their a Red Sox curse for not resigning Orlando Cabrera?). 1-1 record and going for the series win tonight. Good start to the season. I just love having baseball back as the weather continues to get nicer.

ESPN Red Sox/Yankees Sunday Night Baseball Promo

GREAT Promo for the Sox/Yankees Season opener:

I'm ready for the rivalry!


Featuring Clay Buchholz, Adam Scott & Nick Swisher

Swisher sure loves his media appearances.