The Yankees Bullpen Since the All-Star Break

The Yankees bullpen--beset by bad luck, injuries and just inconsistent pitching--looked awful at the All-Star break. Sure Mariano Rivera was still "The Great Mariano", but the mythological "Bridge to Mariano" looked like it could collapse at any second. But when the All-Star break ended something clicked with the relievers and with the acquisition of Kerry Wood, the Yankees bullpen has looked great since then. Let's take a look at the relievers (and their workload since the Texas series started):

The Yankees "Bridge to Mariano" has gotten stronger since Break (NYDN)

Kerry Wood As a Yankee: 2-0, 6 holds, 0.44 ERA in 20.2 innings with 24 K (to 11 BB), .480 OPS against, 1.190 WPA (Win Probability Added according to Baseball-Reference).

Wood gave up a home run to Toronto's Aaron Hill in his second outing in Pinstripes and has not been scored on since. In fact, that's the only time a run has crossed the plate while Wood as he has inherited 8 runners and none of those have scored either. In September he's allowed 4 baserunners out of the 28 batters he's faced. Oh, and that home run he gave up to Hill was the only extra base hit he's given up in to the 83 batters he's faced as a Yankee. Recent workload (calculated since September 10th): 4 games, 14 batters faced, 50 pitches.

Boone Logan Since A-S Break: 1-0, 7 holds, 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings with 23 K (to 6 BB), .519 OPS against, 0.397 WPA.

The amazing part is that Logan gave up a run right after the All-Star break on a home-run and a run last night--but none in between, a streak that spanned 25 outings. If you take away those two outings as well, he's been good at not allowing inherited runners to score, only allowed 13% of his 15 to cross home. Logan's biggest problem has been when he hasn't been used against lefties (as shown last night) but as a lefty specialist, he's been deadly holding lefties to a .174/.269/.203 line with one extra base hit in 78 PAs. Recent workload: 4 games, 9 batters faced, 36 pitches.

David RobertsonSince A-S Break: 2-1, 8 holds, 1 save, 1.50 ERA in 24 innings with 31 K (to 12 BB), .575 OPS against, 1.253 WPA.

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The Yankees Will Have to Go Without Marte and Aceves in 2010

Two important members of the 2009 World Series Championship team will not be back for the 2010 team. From the New York Daily News' Peter Botte:

Hughes will have his next start skipped due to innings limits (LoHud)

Phil Hughes will be skipped one start in the Yankees rotation to limit his innings, Joe Girardi said before Wednesday's series finale against Baltimore. Dustin Moseley will start Sunday in Texas, and Hughes will return to the rotation next Wednesday in Tampa.

Also, Girardi said Alfredo Aceves (back) will not return this season, and Damaso Marte (shoulder) will "probably not" be back in 2010.

The first bit of news is not surprising. Hughes is currently on pace for about 181 regular season innings which would probably be too many for him if he was also asked to start in the playoffs. Although Hughes almost certainly slots in as a start in the playoffs, it probably wouldn't hurt to give his arm some rest. Since they first skipped a start for Hughes in late June after Hughes was 10-1, Hughes is 6-6 in 13 starts (73 innings) since with a 5.55 ERA, 15 HR allowed and an .833 OPS against. Although the track record for skipping Hughes' starts hasn't been great, the results he's put up since June haven't been consistently stellar either so this makes a ton of sense.

The Aceves and Marte news is not great for the Yankees, though they seemed to be resigned to move on without them before this news came down today. Marte has not been a great regular season pitcher for the Yankees but his pitching in the playoffs last year was a big reason they won the World Series (5.2 innings of no-hit ball in the ALCS and World Series). Amazingly, Marte pitched in 30 games for the Yankees in 2010 (the last being on July 7th) which is tied with CC Sabathia for the 4th most on the team behind Joba Chamberlain (60 games), Mariano Rivera (52), David Robertson (52), and Boone Logan (39). The last guy on that list, Logan, is the reason the Yankees can probably be OK with Marte being out. Logan has stepped up in a big way to solidify the lefty specialist role in the bullpen (lefties hitting .194 vs. Logan with one XBH in 70 PAs).

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The Yankee Clipper: Gardner, Montero, Rivera, Cliff Lee and the Bullpen

Let's take a break from debating about what is a sport (or not, the dialog has been quite fascinating) to talk about the Yankees for a while, shall we? Let's head into our Yankee Clipper on this "Dog Day of August" Wednesday in New York (and, by the way, not much is actually wrong with the Yankees; they're still the best team in baseball. Deep breath and move on):

The Yanks need to find Jesus...and bring him up (Times-Union)

1. Brett the Jet has been grounded. Brett Gardner on July 4th: .319/.401/.434. Brett Gardner since July 4th: .169/.302/.213. I know I sometimes am not so objective on Brett Gardner--man crushes can do that for you (if I could clone Brett Gardner and have the second one run errands for me, I would...and the errands would get done really quickly). But he's lost his way. You can't steal bases if you can't get on base. The team has gone 19-11 in those 30 games, but Gardner hasn't been a main part of the cause with only 4 XBH in 89 ABs. He's still playing great defense and has an excellent WAR of 2.8 for the season, but you need to worry if he's hit a wall or teams are now adjusting to him better. Gardner is a slap hitter who can ill afford a large amount of Ks yet he's struck out over 30% of his official ABs since July 4th. His weighted on base average (wOBA) for August is .093 and he still hasn't walked in the month. Gardner needs to get himself straightened out--and fast (though the latter part of the wish is not a hard thing for the Speediest White Man).
2. Jesus rising? Matt at TYU says that we're stuck with Francisco Cervelli but down on the farm the Yankees are seeing their top prospect, Jesus Montero CRUSH the ball at Triple-A. Hopefully in 6 years the Wall Street Journal will be writing about how the Mariners passed on Montero like Brian Costa of WSJ wrote today about how the Texas Rangers passed on Robinson Cano. Sean at Pending Pinstripes says it's still too soon. Brien @ IIATMS defers to the Yankees management. Rebecca at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes says it's time. Here is video proof (H/T River Ave Blues) of Montero crushing a game-winning home run two nights ago. I can agree right now not to call him up (there's no spot for him), but if Jorge Posada lands on the disabled list with his cranky shoulder (or really anyone goes on the DL), I think Montero should be in the Bronx. At the very least, he should be up in about 2 weeks when rosters expand. This is a team that has a .297 wOBA in August as Larry from Yankeeist points out (though, to be fair, he also points out how good the pitching they've faced has been). No excuse for Montero not to be a September call-up.  For now, we need to just pray for Francisco like many pray for Jesus--Montero, that is.

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The Yankee Clipper: Relief Pitching

I feel like "relief" should be in quotes to emphasize the fact that the Yankees bullpen crew hasn't exactly been "lights out". So maybe the Yankees outfield, infield and catcher/DH posts seemed easy in comparison to the starters, but the relievers--oh boy. It's praying for 6-7 innings from the starters, hold your breath for an inning or two and then TGFMR (which of course stands for Thank God For Mariano Rivera). The trade deadline is fast approaching but the the relievers available look ugly at best. Let's take a look at the guys the Yankees currently have:

1. Mariano Rivera. Where would the Yankees be without The Great Mariano? Worse, where will they be eventually without Rivera? Since Mo became the Yankees full-time closer in 1997, the Yankees have had 30 different relievers save games--Mo has 541 and there are only three guys who have more than 7 (Ramiro Mendoza at 16, Mike Stanton at 15, and Steve Karsay at 12). But while he's still here, let's appreciate the man. So far into 2010, Rivera is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA, and 20 saves (in 22 chances). Since May 24th when Rivera gave up a run against the Mets, Mo has pitched in 21 games, gone 3-0 with 12 saves, has an ERA of 0.40 and the line against him is .122/.167/.135. Oh, and he's supposedly doing this all with multiple injuries and at age 40. His WHIP is 0.645, his H/9 is 4.3 and his ERA + is 405 which are all career bests. Alas, some correction is probably in order. He's held opposing batters to a .194 BABIP which is pretty hard to keep up even for Mariano (his career mark is .274). He's allowed 3.1% of his flyballs to leave the park which is well-below his mark of 6.4% since 2002 or his 15.2% of 2009. And so while his ERA is sitting at 1.01 , his FIP is 2.25 and his xFIP is 3.11. The correction may  not be that large, however; Rivera has outperformed his FIP every season since he's been closer except 2001 and 2007. Rivera's strikeouts are a tick down (first time he hasn't struck out a batter per inning since 2006), but everything else is right on par. One interesting development for Rivera: while everyone thinks that sending a righty up is better than a lefty, lefties are actually hitting Rivera slightly better in 2010 (it's all relative) with a .471 OPS compared to a .336 OPS vs righties. And get this: Rivera's SO:BB ratio vs. righties is 23 to 1 and he's allowed zero runs vs. righties in 2010. Let's hope Rivera--the 1999 World Series MVP and 2003 ALCS MVP--continues to play at this level for a very long time. Best Month: June 2-0, 7 saves, zero runs allowed in 11 games, 4 hits, 11.1 K/9, 0.462 WHIP, 8.00 SO/BB.
2. Joba Chamberlain. My "Joba Rules" t-shirt is slowly becoming obsolete. ESPN's Rob Neyer wrote today about Chamberlain's luck and you hope that those numbers turn around. I agree with Neyer that we won't ever see the Joba we saw in 2007. But I'll take (and most Yankees fans would agree) the Joba who pitched in 2008. The Yankees jerked around Joba for so long and wonder now why he's struggling--is it really any surprise to anyone. Some have suggested trading him (horrible idea considering his low trade value), moving him to the rotation (fine idea but he's not stretched out right now), or sending him down to the minors (a kick in the ass, sure, but what else would this accomplish except put another hole the Yankees bullpen?). This bit from Bloomberg Sports is why Yankees fans are frustrated with Joba: " The big right-hander's ERA stands at 5.77, his WHIP's at 1.51, with opponents now hitting a robust .290 against him. He has not had more than three consecutive scoreless appearances since the middle of May. Of the 11 appearances in which he has allowed a run this year, he has allowed either 3 or 4 runs in five of them, a trend that makes it all but impossible for him to consistently lower his ERA." Despite all that the article (and Neyer's as well) suggests what I suggest with the Yankees and Yankee fans when it comes to Joba: patience. He's struck out almost 10 batters per 9 and walked less than the previous two years. He's not been victim to the longball, but he's just gotten hit all around the park. Eventually, some of those balls are going to get caught. And when it does, I really think that Joba's numbers will fit perfectly in line with 2008 where all his peripherals looked exactly the same but instead of a 5.77 ERA, he had a 2.60 ERA. The road right now has been quite bumpy, but hopefully the Yankees don't panic and acquire an 8th inning guy (or trade Joba), when he may possess exactly what they need to bridge to Mo. The big thing for Joba (in my opinion): stop making the first pitch so hittable. It's important to get first pitch strikes (and hitters hit only .170 against Joba when he gets ahead of them) but batters are hitting .611 against Joba on the first pitch, a sure sign that they're just waiting on fastballs to drive. It's tough right now (as as the New York Daily News wrote, Girardi has put Joba on notice) but I have some faith Joba (2nd in the league in holds) will yet turn it around. Best Month: April 3.48 ERA in 11 games, 1.258 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.33 SO/BB.

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The Yankee Clipper: Disappointing Loss

There are games that you should win, and last night was certainly one of those for the Yankees. So why did they come out on the short end? While This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes looks for some rays of sunshine, let's take a look (with A-Rod looking absolutely ridiculous Presidential on the right from ESPN.com):

1. The Yankees bullpen and defense didn't perform. Boone Logan and David Robertson (and to a lesser extent, Alfredo Aceves) just didn't get the job done. Phil Hughes struggled but got through 5 2/3 with a 2-1 lead and turned the ball over to Boone Logan with the lefty, Luke Scott, up at the plate. Logan promptly walked him. Robertson came on to face Wigginton who he hit (on an 0-2 pitch). He then allowed three straight RBI singles to Rhyne Hughes (rookie), Nolan Reimold (struggling), and Caesar Izturis (just bad) before finally striking out Adam Jones.  As the Post's Joel Sherman writes, the Yankees bullpen is a little bit of a mess in front of Mo. Ben from River Ave Blues breaks down the Boone Logan decision.
2. The bullpen was bad, but the Yankees' defense didn't help them out. Aceves' run could have been prevented but bad defense by Derek Jeter (error to lead off inning) and Jorge Posada (who sailed a throw down to second into CF) but Caesar Izturis (Yankee killer) made it 5-2. Randy Winn also had a chance to throw out Luke Scott at the plate in the 6th but ended up throwing the ball straight into the ground (a la Todd Zeile in the 1996 ALCS).
3. The Yankees base-running was atrocious--and hurt them. Jorge Posada hit a home run but had a tough game defensively and running the bases. In the 6th inning, Posada was caught straying too far off second base (where the heck was he going) and Miguel Tejada easily threw over to get Jorge. Posada is not a good baserunner and this is not the first time a base-running gaffe of his hurt the Yankees.  Another bad baserunner on the Yankees is Robinson Cano who somehow thinks he's a base stealer just because he's a middle infielder. Well Cano got caught at second and ended a potential rally. NoMass has a memo to Cano to stop attempting steals.

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