--Andrew: Everyone knows where I stand on this issue because I've written about it before: let’s let Joba, rule-less, go through an entire regular season and see if he can duplicate the success he showed last year before they jerked him around with Joba Rules III. Before they willy-nilly instituted those rules, Joba showed flashes of brilliance, going 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA and dominating in three starts right after the All Star Break. The Yankees then pulled the rug out from under him and he struggled mightily in his mishmosh of a role. I rather give it to Joba and see what he can do over an entire season than give it to Phil Hughes who may be able to throw a max of about 125 innings.
I'll open the floor, though: what do you guys think?
--Ben: Joba's inconsistent velocity is something that we haven't really spoken of. When he has his good stuff, his velocity is in the 96-97 range. When he's bad, it is around 90-91. I've always wondered if Joba has continued to have shoulder issues and hasn't said anything.
--Jay: I don't think his shoulder issues (if he even has any right now) are the problem with his velocity. I think it's due to "faulty throttle control." Joba knows he can hammer the gas pedal when coming in for the 8th inning. But when he starts, even if his body can physically handle 6+ innings at 95+ MPH, he struggles with his consistency. He drops the speed, nibbles at the corners, and gets nicked up. His velocity is only consistent when he's throwing for limited number of pitches and/or innings. Maybe he's afraid of injury when airing it out for that long.
--Andrew: After how well he pitched yesterday against the Phillies, did anyone’s opinion changed of him? It was a dominating outing after a so-so spring? If he can put another one of those out there, does he emerge as a favorite because of his lack of innings limit or do people feel it should still be Hughes or someone else?
--Paul: Hughes/Joba should be in the bullpen with Mitre/Gaudin as the 5th Starter. I didn’t see yest but no matter what Joba should be in the pen, bottom line. He is a great 8th inning guy and could give you two innings some games (and maybe more than 2!). Then, he can replace the great Mariano when that time comes. This will ease the transition of losing the most valuable player over the last 15 years. Yes, you read that correctly….
I think Gaudin can handle the 5th spot, he pitched well in his starts last year. Even if he doesn’t, statistically the Yanks had the worst 5th starter in the majors last year. They won 103 games and then the World Series. Why? Many reasons but one is the fact they had one of the best bullpens in the A.L.
--Jay: Andrew and I discussed this at great length on Tuesday night, so I understand his points. And he's not wrong. But I have to agree with Paul on this.
Anyone see the movie "Saving Private Ryan"? Well, at one point the Jewish-American soldier tells Captain Tom Hanks that taking out a small machine gun nest "seems like an unnecessary risk" given their objective of finding Private Ryan. But Hanks insists on taking out the small group of German soldiers because their objective is to win the war.
My point is that Paul's proposal may be shortsighted because it could create problems for the 2011 season when Pettitte and Vazquez are free agents. As Andrew said, those are real problems and those rotation holes could hurt us in the future. But we'll cross the 2011 bridge when we get to it. Our objective is to win the World Series...right now.
--Andrew: I’m not saying the rotation holes “could” hurt us in the future—they “would” hurt us in the future. You have CC Sabathia (who has thrown more innings than anyone over the past few years), AJ Burnett (an annual injury risk candidate), and ?
The last time the Yankees had two starting pitchers, they went out and signed Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright or when they had injuries a few years ago they went with guys like Sidney Ponson. Let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that the only thing we should worry about is 2010. We wouldn’t advocating gutting the farm system to win this year but by making two starting pitching candidates relievers, you would be doing exactly that.
And the reason why we won last year was not because of the bullpen we built in April (sadly enough for those who believe so but remember that Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras and others were part of that group), but because we had three top starters. And when your starting pitching pitches deeper in games, in shortens the game, makes less of the bullpen have to work and makes your bullpen look better. Does anyone really have the faith that Pettitte and Burnett will stay healthy for the entire year? What do you do then? Have rotations with Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre and Sidney Ponson?
If you’re arguing making Joba a reliever and leaving Hughes as a starter, I would disagree with you but understand…but making both relievers? What’s the point?
--Jay: I should have been clearer: I agree with Paul wholeheartedly on the Joba-to-the-pen issue. I did not agree that Gaudin and Mitre should fight for that 5th rotation spot. I would have no trouble putting Hughes in that spot, or at least giving him a shot against the other two. I just feel that Joba should be the 8th inning guy (or 7th and 8th inning guy) and possibly even Heir to Mariano's Throne. That's where Paul and I agree.
--Andrew: Ok…let’s try this one out:
Who are these relievers (screen grabs from Baseball-Reference):
Pitcher A:
Pitcher B:
Pitcher C:
Pitcher D:
--Jay: Let me guess. One is Joba and one is Hughes. I guess I'd have to go with A, which is probably Hughes.
--Ben: Well I know D is David Robertson. A is Phil Hughes and B is Chamberlain. I'm guessing that C is Chan Ho Park.
--Andrew: Nice work, Ben! Joba and Hughes have unbelievable numbers as relievers but we have two guys in the ‘pen who put up some serious numbers last year, too.
Now how would you rank these starters?
Starter 1:
Starter 2:
Starter 3:
Starter 4:
Starter 5:
--Jay: Stats, stats, stats. What is the point of these blind looks at the numbers? So much more goes into making this type of decision.
--Andrew: Ok…so what else goes in? Jeterian qualities? Clutchness? I’m for both Joba and Hughes being starting pitchers, btw.
And, for people’s knowledge: "A" is Hughes’ career as a starter, "B" is Joba’s career as a starter, "C" is Pettite’s 2009, "D" is Mitre’s career as a starter and "E" is Gaudin’s only year as a full-time starter (and his best year).
What’s the harm in throwing Joba in the rotation to start off the year? We had Brian Bruney, Brett Tomko, Jonathan Albaladejo, Edwar Ramirez and Jose Veras in our bullpen to start the year last year and “somehow” we won the World Series.
If Joba had never pitched in relief for the Yankees, I doubt we’d even be having this conversation, but since he showed flashes of brilliance there, people think that he has to be a reliever? I just don’t get it. I feel like people ignore how well he pitched right after the All-Star break last year because of the idiotic way that Joba Rules III was instituted and how he was set up to fail. Am I missing something?
--Jay: There are factors that those stat lines don't represent. Age, experience (in both the majors and in the AL), personality, salary, contract status, and countless other things. There are plenty of other things that front office people think about too.
Here are some numerical and non-numerical things that must be rolling around inside Girardi's head at one time or another:
1. Joba has a bullpen mentality. Hughes has a starter mentality.
2. Gaudin started 34 games in his only full season. Joba started 31 in his only full season. Gaudin's ERA and WHIP = 4.42 and 1.53. Joba's ERA and WHIP = 4.75 and 1.54. Joba had 7.6 K/9 and 1.75 K/BB. Gaudin had 7.0 K/9 and 1.54 K/BB. Those numbers are pretty close. If they have similar numbers with similar experience, why not give Gaudin the 5th spot and put Joba in the pen, where he is more comfortable?
3. Pettitte has the experience of winning things...5 World Series, 7 AL pennants, and 229 games. And he averages 31 starts per season. Forgetting the numbers, he's the kind of SP you generally know will take the ball every 5 games and fill up innings while keeping the team close. You just know that's how the guy operates. I see him and think "reliability".
4. Joba has a fragile personality. If he struggles as a starter -- a role he's just not comfortable in yet -- it's probably all downhill from there. It is clear that he's more comfortable out of the bullpen.
5. Hughes has a better command of all of his pitches. Watch him pitch, then watch Joba pitch and see how Chamberlain nibbles at the corners because he doesn't have control over his breaking stuff. The numbers, if you bother to look them up, will support this impression.
I'm saying that if deciding a lineup or rotation were based entirely on stat lines from baseball-reference.com, teams would just hire machines to do a GM or a manager's job. We're not quite there yet. Other things have to be considered.
--Ben: I think it's awfully hard to just say outright that Joba has a bullpen mentality and Hughes has a starter mentality, especially when Chamberlain has reiterated that he really wants to be a starting pitcher.
Btw, has anyone brought up the point that maybe Joba was rushed to the majors because he could help out of the bullpen. He never really got a whole lot of time at Triple A to work as a starter.
--Andrew: Responding to Jays 5 points:
1) Why? As Ben has said, what proves this? What has Hughes done as a starter that has proven he's a starter which Joba hasn't done?
2) Exactly my point. You have a guy in Joba under contract for close to the league minimum, controllable, has a higher ceiling and who is much younger vs. a guy in Gaudin who is older and more expensive (almost $3 million)
3) Pettitte has been consistent over his career but he had arm troubles at the end of last season, big arm troubles at the end of 2008, and missed significant time in 2004. It's not so far-fetched to think that his aging arm could be nearing the end (though I hope not)
4) If the guy has a fragile personality then why would you want to groom him to be a closer so he can pitch the most high-pressure inning of the game?
5) I agree that Joba nibbles. But isn't this something you can work on with a pitcher? Using Andy Pettitte as an example: the dude was a nibbler at the beginning of his career but learned to stop nibbling with experience.
I don't use stats to back up my arguments because I want to be annoying, but because you can actually use them to compare rather than "starter mentality" vs. "reliever mentality"
But, Ben brings up a great point. Would it be better, instead of stunting the growth of a starter by sending him to the bullpen, to send the loser of the 5th starter battle to Triple A? I know Joba could benefit from that because he never pitched at Triple A, but I think that Hughes could as well to just get the innings they need. That way they’d be available to come up if a starters gets hurt or if they desperately need a reliever later in the season.
What do you guys think? Could you see a scenario where Hughes or Joba goes to the minors instead of pitching in the bullpen? Would you be at all in favor of that?
--Jay: I have suggested in the past Joba going to AAA. If he loses the 5th spot, which looks likely, and the Yankees agree with Andrew that it's starter-or-bust, he either goes to Triple A or gets traded.
To sum up...if you agree with Andrew, there are only 3 options:
1. Joba as 5th starter
2. Joba as Triple A starter
3. Joba gets traded
By contrast, if Joba is not going to be the 5th starter, I'd rather see him in the bullpen. That would help us win now. Given the ever-advancing age of our Core 4 of talent, not to mention the aforementioned impending free agency of Pettitte and Vazquez, we can't play for 2-3 years from now. We gotta win in 2010.
--Glenn: Barring a complete surprise in the remainder of spring training, Hughes in the rotation, Joba in the bullpen. Joba's problem is that he doesn't trust himself. He's confident that he can unleash everything he's got in 1 or 2 innings, but when someone tells him to go 7 innings, he develops this "reserve" mentality (yes I agree with this bullpen mentality idea) where he feels that he has to hold back in the early innings to conserve himself. With him, it's entirely mental, not lack of stuff. How does he overcome this? He's gotta prove to himself that he can do this, whether it's with the Yankees or the minors.
Problem is that the Yankees aren't going to want him to work out his mental issues at the expense of wins. And there's no guarantee that he'll get past this as I think he's had plenty of time and he still can't figure it out.
Hughes has the better arsenal. His mental makeup? I'm not sure, but I think he's had a less of a chance to prove himself as a starter, so you can't make that judgment yet.
Joba I think is also the more overpowering pitcher, albeit in relief.
--Ben: Interesting points. We've seen Joba pitch great games when he doesn't hold back and let's it go for 6 or 7 innings. Why he holds back I don't know.
--Andrew: Final thoughts: I understand that we need to win in 2010 and we'll eventually need a replacement for Mariano Rivera, but I feel like we're wasting a great chance to develop a Major League starter and overvaluing a bullpen arm. I'm not saying that Joba gets an unlimited leash out there but I think he needs one year, sans rules, to see what he can do when he airs it out. If he can't do it, what's the harm? You throw him back in the bullpen and you have to find arms anyways. I think the Yankees have to at least give him the chance. They've spent 3 years developing him for this point. Why waste it now?
Picture from the New York Daily News
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