Monday, March 1, 2010

Scout X on the Red Sox, the Yankees, and Joba/Hughes

Now that the Olympics are over, I think it's time to turn our attention to baseball. Gene Wojciechowski of ESPN.com asks a scout who he describes as a "big league lifer...one of the best in the business" to pick the winners. He calls him "Scout X". Here's what Scout X says about the AL East:
Can anybody beat the Yankees? I don't see how. I really don't see how.

Now with Javier Vazquez in the rotation, it gets even tougher. I know he's coming from the other league and his numbers are inflated, but he's going to make a difference. You're talking about CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Vazquez. It's hard to compete with that.

For me, Phil Hughes would probably be the fifth starter. Joba Chamberlain would be the set-up guy. I don't think Joba has the intellectual capacity to go through a lineup three times. I think you put him out there and let him blow everybody away for an inning or two.

Now the Red Sox have Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Dice-K, Tim Wakefield and John Lackey. And their bullpen is pretty darn good. I think they're good enough for a wild card. I don't see a second-place team in the other divisions being as good as Boston.

People are talking about Tampa, but I just don't think, at the end of the game, they can compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. Not yet, anyway. But starting-pitching-wise, this kid Jeff Niemann, they rave about him. And now's the time for David Price to go out and pitch. They watched his innings last season.
So we have one person here who thinks Joba should be in the bullpen and that the Red Sox are going to be the Wild Card. I'm not sure that Joba doesn't have the "intellectual capacity" to be a starter, but it's interesting to hear that opinion for the first time. Scout X also says he'd pay to watch Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Manny Ramirez, Joe Mauer, CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Andrew Bailey, Justin Upton, and Zack Greinke. Of Alex Rodriguez, Scout X says "A-Rod is hard to watch. He's such a phony. Hard to stomach. But he's a great player. A great player." And for the World Series? Scout X picks the Yankees over the Cardinals.

Other New York baseball news:

  • Bronx Baseball Daily has a look around the majors at ex-Yankees in new digs and the New York Times has a nice article on a player in his new Yankees digs: Jamie Hoffmann
  • ESPN's Buster Olney ranks the Yankees' early-season schedule as the third hardest in baseball as they start their season with six against Boston and six against Tampa Bay. River Avenue Blues puts that early-season grind in more context.
  • Fack Youk does an ode to Edwar Ramirez and ESPN's Rob Neyer talks about how Ks weren't good enough for Ramirez
  • Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record talks about Robinson Cano and how he compares with Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch talks about Felipe Lopez, a player I thought would have fit nicely in a utility role for the Yankees, joining the Cards.
  • This is not good for the New York baseball teams: the feds first interviewed Jose Reyes, according to the New York Daily News, in connection with a doctor charged with smuggling HGH. And now A-Rod has been questioned as well according to the New York Times. Speaking of PEDs, Jason at IIATMS has a Rocket sighting.
  • Rays Index takes on Was Watching for calling Carl Crawford "street" and the St. Petersburg Times has word of a very weird positional battle going on in Tampa
  • Mets Police has news of a very weird/interesting presale for Mets tickets and former division rival, John Smoltz, may be heading to Congress according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Picture from Yahoo! Sports

7 comments:

  1. That's actually not the first time I've heard someone say that Joba doesn't have the "intellectual capacity" to be a good starting pitcher.

    We have to wonder though, what would have happened had Joba never pitched out of the bullpen upon his arrival in the big leagues.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I am enjoying this so much. It's like the opposite of the consensus at the beginning of last season. More people seem to be calling for Hughes in the 5 spot and Joba in the setup role...as they should be.

    Whether it's his lack of intellectual capacity, poor command, or an obviously higher "hittability" after his first trip through the order, Joba just isn't the same dominant pitcher as a SP. He just isn't. He shows glimpses of effectiveness, but at the end of the day, his stuff and his personality (and even his intellectual capacity) just make him a more effective 1-2 inning pitcher.

    ReplyDelete
  3. And, Jay, if you feel that way about Joba as a starter vs. reliever, you should feel even more strongly about Hughes considering the spread between his starting and his relieving is even more drastic. Why would you take the pitcher you've already stretched out and put him in the bullpen and take the pitcher who can only throw 100 innings next season and put him in the rotation?

    It's like trying to drive an electric car cross country when you know that it'll only take you halfway and you'll need to recharge it for a few days. So you need another car to get you the other half of the way. Instead, you've left your other car--which is perfectly fine--at home just to drive on the weekends because, hey, once you had a good experience driving it on a Saturday--and you're a sucker for nostalgia. So let's just make it a weekend car because of that reason. It's ridiculous

    ReplyDelete
  4. After 20 starts on the season Joba was 14-6 with a 3.58 ERA. What is the problem? The next start they screwed with his schedule and things changed. But if you told me that for an entire my starting pitcher would give me those numbers and I'll sign up for it!

    ReplyDelete
  5. sorry...the team was 14-6 in his starts. My bad. But you get the point

    ReplyDelete
  6. I have a feeling that the Yankees will make Joba the reliever, anyways, but I think it's a really big mistake.

    ReplyDelete
  7. It's because their temperaments are different. Putting aside the "stretched out" vs. "not stretched out" argument, Hughes has the calm demeanor of a SP, while Joba has the bulldog/bulldozer mentality of a setup guy or a closer. To me, Hughes pitches more like Jon Lester and Joba pitches more like Jon Papelbon. The difference is obvious when you watch them back-to-back.

    Also, the Yanks went 14-6 in his starts, but who's responsible for the wins, Joba or the combination of late-inning offense and a strong bullpen? Joba is notorious for going 5 innings or less, thus putting a huge strain on the Yanks' pen. Even if he's effective, he isn't effective for long enough. Hughes, in his starts, hasn't demonstrated the same problem with insufficient length of outings.

    To illustrate, here is a smattering of Joba's 2009 outings, which shows that regardless of whether Joba gets the W or the L, he throws a ton of pitches and thereby puts the team in a hole either way.

    1. April 17, home vs. Cleveland, Yanks win 6-5, 5 ER in 4.2 IP and 93 pitches, Joba gets ND

    2. June 12, home vs. Mets, Yanks win 9-8, 2 ER in 4 IP and 100 pitches, Joba gets ND

    3. August 6, home vs. Boston, Yanks win 13-6, 4 ER in 5 IP and 108 pitches, Joba gets win

    4. August 11, home vs. Toronto, Yanks win 7-5, 4 ER in 6 IP and 103 pitches, Joba gets ND

    See, Andrew? Even when the Yankees win in a Joba start, it hurts the team because of his inability to throw 6+ innings kills our bullpen. The fact that the team is 14-6 in his starts does not help your argument.

    ReplyDelete